Today, Ben plays lone host for the first time as we welcome Alex Edmans to the show. Alex is a Professor of Finance at London Business School as well as an accomplished speaker, author, investment banker, and financial advisor. To start, Alex describes his involvement in the formation of a new law in the UK before defining ‘misinformation’ and where confirmation bias fits in. Then, we assess the impact severity of confirmation bias, biased search versus biased interpretation, the role of generative AI in confirmation bias, and the levels of susceptibility within confirmation bias. We also explore the role of black-and-white thinking in concealing the truth, Alex’s Ladder of Misinference as seen in May Contain Lies, the 10,000-hour rule and other famous statements of misinformation, and how the idea of a narrative may influence how people interpret and misinterpret facts. We end with how to guard against the plague of data mining in research, data as evidence and what this implies for evidence in financial economics, and Alex shares helpful advice for determining truth in any circumstance.
Key Points From This Episode:
(0:03:27) Alex Edmans walks us through the erroneous evidence that influenced a new UK law.
(0:07:13) Misinformation; living in a post-truth world; and where confirmation bias fits in.
(0:12:06) The severity of confirmation bias, and biased search versus biased interpretation.
(0:18:19) Unpacking generative AI and the susceptibility thresholds of confirmation bias.
(0:21:25) How black-and-white thinking makes the truth more elusive.
(0:25:40) Understanding Alex’s Ladder of Misinference as seen in May Contain Lies.
(0:28:17) Debunking the 10,000-hour rule and other enduring statements of misinformation.
(0:38:10) The second step on the Ladder of Misinference: Why facts are not data.
(0:42:42) How the idea of a narrative influences how people interpret or misinterpret facts.
(0:44:25) Why data is not evidence, and examining the plague of data mining in research.
(0:48:36) Guarding against data mining and the consequences of investing with misinformation.
(0:53:01) When data is evidence, and what this says about evidence in financial economics.
(0:55:49) Why evidence may not be proof.
(0:59:14) Practical advice for seeking the truth for important decisions and in everyday life.
Links From Today’s Episode:
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!