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July 18, 2025 6 mins

I’d like to give the listeners to the podcast the opportunity to be among the first to get visibility of an exciting new project that will form part of our industrial portfolio. The project is located on a 21 acre parcel in Bradenton Florida. This is an area that has an acute shortage of property that is even zoned for industrial uses. The project is not open yet for investment. This is an opportunity for interested parties to learn more about the project. If you are interested in learning more, send an email to victor@victorjm.com and put the word industrial in the subject line. We will get some information over to you shortly. That’s victor@victorjm.com. This is not a solicitation for investment, and any investment would be by prospectus only, limited to accredited investors residing in the US in compliance with SEC regulations. 

As always, I believe that the hyper local market situation always outweighs the macro market conditions. That doesn’t mean you should ignore the macro environment entirely. One of the principal effects of the macro environment is on the cost of capital. 

On today’s show we are figuring out how to interpret the current market conditions, or at least we’re going to try. 

I frequently have conversations with investors who are trying to forecast the future of interest rates and what that would mean for their investment thesis. 

-------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
 Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)  
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 Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)  
 LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)  
 YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)  
 Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)  
 Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  
**Y Street Capital:**
 Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)  
 Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)  
 Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
Welcome to the Real Estate Express podcast, your morning
shot of what's new in the world of real estate investing.
I'm your host, Victor Minash. I've always believed that
hyperlocal market conditions always outweigh the macro
environment. That doesn't mean you should
ignore the macro environment entirely.
One of the principal effects of the macro environment, of
course, is on the cost of capital.

(00:22):
But first, I'd like to give you,the listeners of the podcast,
opportunity to be among the first to get visibility of an
exciting new project that's going to form part of our
industrial portfolio. This project is located on a 21
acre parcel in Bradenton, FL. This is an area that has an
acute shortage of property that's zoned for industrial
uses. The project is not open yet for

(00:42):
investment. It's an opportunity for
interested parties to learn moreabout the project.
At this stage, if you're interested in learning more,
send an e-mail to victor@victorjm.com and put the
word industrial in the subject and we'll get some information
over to you shortly. That's victor@victorjm.com.
This is not a solicitation for investment.
And of course, any investment would be by prospectus only,

(01:04):
limited to accredited investors residing in the US and in
compliance with USSEC regulations.
On today's show, we're figuring out how to interpret the current
market conditions, or at least we're going to try.
I frequently have conversations with investors who are trying to
forecast the future of interest rates and what that would mean
for their own investment thesis.Now I don't need to tell you

(01:25):
about the folly of predicting the future.
Market conditions can and do change quickly based on investor
sentiment and various geopolitical and global events.
Fact is, we are living in a bifurcated economy.
Some people call this AK shaped economy.
This is where there are simultaneous indicators both to
the upside and the downside. Sometimes these contradictory

(01:47):
narratives exist within the samedata set.
Let's look at the most recent jobs report.
The headline hiring number blew past expectations, but when you
dissect the numbers, half of thehires were government jobs only
70,000 were in the private sector, and 60,000 of those were
teachers. For terms starting in June, this
is hardly a strong jobs report. Even though the headline

(02:08):
suggests otherwise. We have the entire travel
industry reporting downside riskfor the summer travel season.
The reports from Delta Airlines,from Hilton, Wyndham are all
pretty consistent. Business travel is still robust
compared with the same period last year, but main cabin
revenue is down. Amazon extended their July Prime
Day from one day to four days and still reported anemic

(02:32):
results from their promotions. The American consumer stretched
and discretionary spending is down.
You've got the stock market now at all time highs.
How can investors reconcile the bullish outlook with what are
clearly signs of anemic growth and global trade uncertainty?
The stock market investments areconcentrated in the top 10% of
the population. So you've got one economy for

(02:54):
the top 10%, and then you have another economy for everyone
else. The wealth effect being
generated by the stock market and Bitcoin is only affecting a
very small percentage of the population.
We also have the baby boomers retiring and they're at a stage
in life where consumer spending falls.
All of these things are contradictory.
New survey data from University of Michigan shows consumer

(03:15):
sentiment continue to recover this past month reaching A5
month high, although the mood remains considerably worse than
it was at the end of last year. Same time, the producer price
index is showing deflation in several segments of producer
prices, indicating an economic slowdown.
Shipments of containers enteringthe West Coast ports of Los
Angeles and Long Beach are up compared with a year ago.

(03:37):
Average shipments to date this year are up 6%, but some of that
is short term effects to get in ahead of tariff deadlines.
We saw a big flurry of activity in the first quarter of the year
coming up to the April 2nd announcement.
Now we have another flurry of activity.
Import volumes are up 9.8% for the month of June compared with
a year ago. Same thing, they're trying to

(03:58):
get in ahead of the August deadline.
Incoming containers represent 52% of the container volume.
That's fairly consistent with the long term.
Average exports represent 14% ofthe total container traffic, and
a third of the containers are going back to Asia empty.
China manufacturers and owns thevast majority of shipping
containers in the world today. So if you look at shipping

(04:19):
container traffic, which is directly linked to consumer
activity, you'd have a hard timedrawing any conclusions from the
data to determine whether the economy is heating up or slowing
down. Today's Wall Street Journal
shows a survey of 69 economists conducted during the week of
July 3rd to 8th. The same group also responded to
the same survey in April. These economists lowered the

(04:40):
likelihood of a recession in thenext 12 months to 33% on
average, down from 45% in April.But it's still higher than the
panel's 22% consensus in January.
We're hearing the tariffs are inflationary and then that
they're not inflationary. And if the tariffs are expected
to be wide-ranging across multiple industries and multiple
nations on earth, then the government's going to regain

(05:00):
about 600 billion in additional tax revenue.
That's money that's being suckedout of the economy.
Some say the cost of tariffs will be absorbed by businesses.
And clearly the businesses that are hearing that are stating
that these costs will eventuallyneed to be passed on to the end
customer. So when all of this is
synthesized together, it's impossible to tell whether the
economy is heading up or down. What I can say is where I see

(05:22):
the risks, and there are three bubbles that can't be ignored.
The current stock market valuations are simply not
supported on a fundamentals basis.
It is reasonable to consider we'll see a pullback in stock
market valuations once that reality sets in.
When that'll happen is anyone's guess.
We're seeing a debt bubble in government spending that will
eventually pop, but we don't know when.
And then real estate prices for a residential real estate remain

(05:45):
elevated compared with affordability.
This was partly the result of very limited supply in the
market over the last couple years.
And that's now starting to loosen up.
And we're seeing prices drop in many markets that were some of
the hottest markets during the pandemic.
Just look at many Florida markets for examples.
So there's no clear answer. I see more risk to the downside
than upside. But we can't ignore the fact

(06:05):
that asset prices have continuedto appreciate even in the
presence of all these headwinds.Define logic over the last four
or five years. As you think about that, have an
awesome rest of your day. It'll make some great things
happen and I'll talk to you again tomorrow.
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