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May 5, 2022 25 mins

In this Sales Meeting Reynolds Bickerstaff shares economic data to support his predictions for the 2022 Housing Market. 

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
One of the ones that does that this meeting is being
recorded.


Speaker 2 (00:05):
Yeah, it's you're right, Mary, you gotta always
look at it and see, um, youknow, how do the current
conditions affect my decision?
What should someone like me doat a market like this?
And, um, it's changing a lot.
It's gonna change a lot in 2022.

(00:26):
This is just a larger picture ofthe same, uh, short.
Okay.
I thought this was interesting.
Has anyone sold a home to a mul,you know, a two generation
family or multiple generationfamily, you know, parents take
care of and elderly adultstaking care of an elderly parent

(00:49):
kids moving back inmulti-generational communities
are one of the solutions toaffordable housing.
Um, what was the name I saw theother day, uh, is, you know, on
millennials and said, oh, heactually does have an apartment.

(01:11):
He has a whole basement at hisparents' house.
I can't wait to go out with him.
You know, making fun of people,living in basement with their
parents.
Um, people can't find place tostill live the apartments.
They're too expensive.
So multi-generationalcommunities, we've talked about
this for a long time, but untilthis pandemic occurred, it

(01:36):
hasn't been really that popularbecause guess what?
It's hard to take care of peoplewhen they're far away, mom and
dad are over there.
I can't care for them.
Um, kids are moving back.
This is a graph that shows thenew homes built per thousand
Americans.
It goes back to 19.

(01:57):
Let's just say 60, 19 59.
So new homes, 2006, obviously wehad major recession.
And what, what do you pick upfrom the housing recession the
early two thousands to today?

(02:20):
What has not occurred

Speaker 3 (02:24):
Back to where we,

Speaker 2 (02:27):
Yeah, we haven't even made back to like normal.
So many, many builders went outof business.
They never got back in.
They just quit.
We have to where it's a shortageof skilled labor.
Um, even the big, the big homebuilders, toll brothers, um, Pty
, they can't account for theentire new home market.

(02:53):
You know, y'all probably knewlots of people that maybe built
5, 10, 15 homes a year.
People are gone.
You're either a big box builderand mass scale, or you're just
doing custom jobs.
So we aren't even coming closeto producing the amount of new
homes annually that ourpopulation demands, which is why

(03:16):
there is so much pressure on theReese sale market.
Right?
Y'all look at some of thesehomes and like, oh my gosh, that
home is$180 of square foot.
No, three years ago they weregetting 125 in that neighborhood
bar.
Look, y'all the house across thestreet from me.

(03:37):
I was shocked what it just soldfor it's half brick, half vinyl
siding.
It sold for$280,000.
Doesn't even have a garage.
Now I know I've brought up thevalue of the neighborhood.
I understand my Christmas lightsand seasonal decorations.
But when you look at northColumbus where you gonna find a

(03:58):
decent yard, it been renovated,but there's just not any
choices, which is why in 2022,we're still gonna be seeing
multiple offers on homes.
There's not enough newconstruction available.
And the resale market is stillgoing to receive a lot of
pressure.
And, um, we think there's gonnabe not.

(04:23):
When we say last week, there'sabout 14% appreciation and home
values in Muskogee county.
They'll probably be, you know,between 10 and 14, not as much
in 2021, but we still think thatwe're gonna see double digits
appreciation and home value onthe resale.
So if that occurs, if I bought ahouse in the last 12 months, is

(04:48):
it possible I could sell it fora profit in 20, 22 very much.
So here's one thing you have tothink about though, need versus
want.
Rates are going home values aregonna be appreciating.

(05:08):
Do I want to buy a home or do Ineed to buy a home?
Cause if you need to buy a homeand these things are gonna be
happening are happening in 2022,how much negotiating power do
you really have?
Not much.
Right.
So how do you compete in thismarket?

(05:30):
Now you compete by helping yourclients understand what the odds
are that they're going to beable to, to own a home in 2022,
help,'em get'em in touch with agood lender, help'em understand
their finances.
You know, they may need to stayin this house for 10 years,

(05:51):
right?
We could still have moreappreciation in the next couple
years.
Maybe it slows down some, Idon't think we'll see double
digit appreciation in 2023, butit's still gonna be healthy
because this is gonna take along time to recover from, um,
it's years before we start 3dprinting homes and build'em on

(06:15):
factories and assembling'em onsite, you know, like Christmas
presents.
I mean, eventually modularconstruction will be very, very
attractive.
The mobile homes they built noware nothing like the ones I was
at in college.
And the one I lived in college,who I had skylights and a

(06:35):
garden, tub and mirrors in mybathroom.
I saw it.
I was, I thought I was livingstrong carpet in the bathrooms.
Now the sheet rock was a was,was like painted on.
I think the sheet rock waspainted on it wasn't even a
paneled sheet rock.
So a point is new constructionprices are still gonna increase.

(07:00):
We we're not even gonna get intocost of materials.
Um, but you can just see thisone graph that we're way behind
on new home inventory.
Now this doesn't get a whole lotof attention.
Like it used to, this is stillthe standard, the case sugar

(07:21):
index.
Does anybody know if this indexis It's it's value?
You know, it's market value sonational and they do composites.
We're looking at this yellowline and it goes year over year.
So January to January, this isthe appreciation and home

(07:44):
values.
Okay.
So, so This line, January 21,10% Through what it went up,
another 5% through the middle ofthe year, you know, and we
talked about 14% last week.

(08:06):
So the national average talkedout of 20% rolling into 2022.
A major event would have tohappen To, you know, just to get
back down to 10% appreciation in2022.
Does everybody understand thatwe're on a national level,

(08:27):
you're going to see double digitappreciation, at least in home
values in the Columbus marketand the east Alabama market Did
Phoenix city outpace Columbuslast year.
Something to think about y'allyou're not licensed in Alabama.

(08:48):
Maybe you should be.
There's a lot of opportunityover there and they're building
new homes.
Okay.
So how has the pandemic changedreal estate?
We talked about this last year.
People are still, you know,moving to some of the suburbs
that they can find space workingfrom home with somebody that's

(09:10):
just gonna be permanent.
Now, some people are never gonnago back to the corporate
headquarters and they'rethrilled about that.
This started happening a littlebit last year.
It's really ramping up in Metroareas.
Now, I, I know a developer inAtlanta who is converting an
office building in Midtown,Atlanta into apartments, not

(09:32):
condos into apartments.
So, um, I don't think you'llsee, you know, big.
We don't have a lot of bigoffice buildings here.
Um, low interest rates are gonnadrop are going to, uh, supposed
to, I didn't change thatincreasing interest, rising
interest rates, I think willdrive down high end home sales.

(09:57):
How many people in 2021 boughttheir dream home now?
Oh my gosh, it's two and a halfpercent, 3%.
I was at a 500,000 level.
I can now afford 7, 7 50 ratesgo up Values, go up.
That 600,000 house is now, youknow, close to That's going.

(10:24):
I'm gonna pull back.
Maybe I'm not gonna buy this bighome anymore.
I'm not cutting my own grass ina 700,000 house, but I may have
to, if I can't afford to paysomeone to do it, um, You know
what I forget to take out thissled.
That's a totally wrong sled.
I apologize.

(10:46):
This is what I want to get toCriteria for home buyers.
What are they looking for in2022?
This was number one last year.
Did y'all hear a lot of peoplesay they wanted large outdoor
space.
Okay.
They wanted a dedicated homeoffice classroom.
My kids are, I don't even knowif they're zooming, but they're

(11:08):
at home.
This is a new one.
Mental health wellness space.
Okay.
I'm at home.
Gyms are closing down.
The yoga studio is at, is at areduced capacity.
Um, I don't have this space, sowhere can I go in my home?

(11:31):
And where can I relax?
Where can I shut the door?
And mom or dad needs fiveminutes an hour myself.
Um, I think you're gonna seethis come up, whereas maybe not
so much as a play, but more of aworkout room, adult room, mental
health space.

(11:52):
Um,

Speaker 3 (11:54):
All we don't have garages are off of lots.
Yeah.
And there's not enough garagesin this town.
I don't understand there nogarages.

Speaker 2 (12:02):
Yep.
You use their garage to parkcars and they store stuff.
So you see all these storagefacilities opening up and
they're maximum.
It's crazy.
Well, why do we have all thisstuff?
I don't know.
That's another, that's anotherdebate class beat internet.
Remember last year we talkedabout the difference between,

(12:23):
can anybody tell me thedifference between bandwidth and
broadband?
Roy?
You're a tech expert now.
So put you on the spot.

Speaker 4 (12:36):
It's just, um, a wider spectrum for more people
to have access to.

Speaker 2 (12:41):
So has anybody a, did any buyers ask y'all about how,
how good is the internet here?
How do you answer that?

Speaker 3 (12:53):
I'm the provider.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
Yeah.
Perfect.
Yeah.
Put it on them.
Okay.
But the internet speed.
It's a measure of how fastinformation is transferred,
right?
That's your, that's what, that'syour broadband.
It's how fast things are moving.

(13:15):
So broadband refers to the rangeof frequencies are banned.
You have, what do you see?
Those science who Hughes net,which is satellite.
Elon Musk company is a spacelink.
Uh, he has satellite internet.
Um, so satellite DSL cable,fiber Hovan is the frequency or

(13:39):
the speed.
Cause I can have, I can havesuper fast internet, but not a
lot of bandwidth, which is theamount of data to be really
careful.
You're right.
Mary don't get into thosediscussions have been called the
providers.
They can give the address, butyou need to know if someone's
trying to tell you, oh yeah,we've got, oh, you've got great

(14:02):
internet.
We out broadband.
Well, that's like saying, um,what kind of, uh, Kleenex do you
have here?
Oh yeah.
We've got tissue paper.
It we've got tissue paper fromSam's that fill that cardboard.
It's not Kleenex with the Allothat also MOS and salt, whatever

(14:24):
people don't know what broadbandmeans.
You need to know the difference.
Broadband is the speed.
Bandwidth is the amount, howmuch internet do I want?
Everybody's got broadband.
You got internet, you have abroadband.
It's just, how fast is it?
Um, so do you wanna identify outwho the providers are in MLS

(14:46):
listing?
Maybe you should be carefulthough.
You need to have information toconfirm that they are available.

Speaker 5 (14:54):
How, how about if those who are as a part of the
seller disclosure,

Speaker 2 (14:58):
You could certainly disclose the seller, what they
have.
Absolutely.
That that would be a safe bet.
You conclude a copy of the billand it'll say, you know, at and
T Mediacom this, I mean thatwould, that would be a safe play
for sure.
I would not give them a wholelist, but I certainly state

(15:19):
current, the seller currentlyhas cable DSL, 250 mega month,
whatever the amount is, the, thebandwidth.
Um, let, let someone elsemisinterpret that cause people
have different opinions of it,but it's important.
So the theme we're caring forthis year is efficient.

(15:45):
And According to Websterdictionary efficient means
achieving maximum productivitywith minimum wasted effort or
expense, Working in a wellorganized and competent way.
So I'd like for y'all to takeout, this will take just two
minutes, take out a piece ofpaper and, and write this down.

(16:11):
Would you like to generate Thesame revenue, new or gross
commission at 2022 With lesseffort?
Most of you're gonna probablyput a yes.
Same or more.
Okay.
So if you want, if you want tobe more efficient and generate

(16:32):
the same income with less effortthan you had to expend in 2021,
what's one thing you could workon next week that would increase
your efficiency.
What's one thing, maybe it'swaking up 30 minutes earlier

(16:54):
Going to bed 30 minutes earlier,Not checking social media before
or nine.
There could be a lot of things.
Just pick one thing, somethingreally, really simple.
And then I want you to writedown what's one thing you could
work on this quarter That wouldincrease your efficiency.

Speaker 6 (17:20):
Do,

Speaker 2 (17:22):
Could it help you if you automated some of your
communication with your clients,by learning how to use your
contact management system OrTake a step back, maybe you just
wanna write out each month, howyou want to communicate with

(17:42):
people and put it on yourcalendar.
February is a call.
March is April is a note.
Maybe you just wanna have a hardcopy, but what could you work on
this quarter that would increaseyour efficiency in 2022 and then

(18:05):
think about, are there anyobstacles that would prevent you
from being able to do this andby obstacles?
I mean, is it, do you lack theskill to know how to use your
contact management system?
Is there an area where you needhelp and learning how to time

(18:28):
block?
If there's, if it's a skill,Where could you find information
come to a class, talk to Alan,Steve or myself, or is it a, is
it a lack of desire?
I don't wanna do any of this.

(18:50):
I'm tired.
I don't wanna sit down and tryto figure this out.
So if you, if you wanna generatethe same, earn more income with
less effort, be thinking aboutthe rest of this week.
What's something I could work onnext week.
What's something I could work onthis quarter.

(19:12):
And what do I need to do to makethat happen?
Do I need to focus on maybe askill or do I need to get in the
right mind to make that happen?
You've got plenty of time to dothis.
Y'all do you think agents atother companies are gonna be
just trying to repeat what theydid in 2022?
Do you think they're gonna betrying to do things differently?

(19:40):
Most of'em are, most of'em arejust gonna continue to react to
the market.
If every thing that we justcovered, if most of it comes
true, the market is gonna behavevery similar to 2021.
Can you, can we control any ofthat?
If I go back and show, can I conI don't work for the fed that
you're aware of?

(20:01):
I don't control interest rates.
Uh, I'm not a builder.
I don't build homes.
This is the only thing y'all cancontrol is how you react to,
what's gonna go on in 2022.
It's gonna be a lot like 20, 21,except you've already been
through 2021.

(20:22):
So you know what this market'sgonna be like, and you did it,
you're here.
And some of at your best yearever, which is awesome.
Now I realize maybe some of uswanted to crawl into the
wellness space at our home alot.
Um, and just take a break orwhat you gotta do things to

(20:42):
recharge, right?
So, and 2021 was a year ofreaction.
We were doing as much businessas we could.
We take it while we can get it,and we're gonna deal with the
fallout.
Later, 2022 is about beingproactive.

(21:05):
That I can't talk in the same,being proactive and adjusting
business plan on how you canmanage the business that you
have now in the business you'regonna do in 2022.
It doesn't require much changeat all.
Just some little things y'all.
So think about those littlethings.
What's one thing I could do nextweek.

(21:27):
One thing I could focus on thisquarter that would help me be a
little more efficient, could becutting out.
Some things could be addingsomething, but think about what
you want to do and figure out,well, how, how am I gonna do
that?
You'll immediately start feelingbetter about 20, 22 and all the

(21:49):
business that's available toyou.
We're here to help you withthat.
As you go through this list, ifthere's something, um, you need
help with or want talk about,come see the three of us, some
of the things we're doing will,will already help with this.
Some of the changes we're makinghere on the back end, that we'll
talk about later with ouraccounting and with DocuSign, we

(22:13):
gotta keep working on being moreefficient, quickly, moving
through things, achieving themaximum productivity of minimum
wasted effort, expense.
You'll all have high standards,which you operate your business.
But if you can save a little bitof time or spend less time doing
the same things you did, you'llget a greater return on the time

(22:35):
you invested.
And you'll have more time to dothose as things that renew you
and your business and give youthe repre you sometimes need
from everything else going on2022 is, is going to be
emotionally stressful.
And I think, and I'm, I'm aperfect example today.

(22:57):
COVID is gonna call more socialharm probably than physical harm
to people, right?
Um, am I a fool for going outthis evening wearing a mask?
I don't think so, but I'm suresome people are gonna wonder why
at the Auburn basketballstadium, I'm wearing a mask and
I'm thinking, what are these15,000 people not wearing masks?

(23:22):
We're yelling at Auburn, youknow, we're close.
That's how stuff spreads.
So maybe it's be efficient withmy thoughts about what I can
really do about any of this,right?
And focus on the things that youcan do appreciate y'all being
here this morning.

(23:44):
And, um, we're here to help youto go through your list.
If there's something you wannawork on, we'll be happy to help
you out with that next week.
We're gonna move into kind ofsome regular sales meeting
topics.
And, uh, we're talking about, um, and the actions to achieve
your goals in 20 in 22.

(24:06):
So this is kind of a segue tothat to be thinking over the
next week about efficiency.
How can I be a little moreefficient?
Doesn't have to be a whole lot.
Y'all just a little bit, Ipromise you agents and other
companies are not thinking thatway.
They're just thinking about howcan I get a break while y'all

(24:26):
leaning in thinking about howcan I get better at doing this?
That's where the real value is.
People still need your help.
They do.
So if you're gonna help them,you've gotta figure out a way to
be just a little more efficientat doing that.
And I know you can do that andwe're gonna be bringing you some
ideas on how to do that.
I appreciate y'all being herethis morning.

(24:48):
You have an extra yourself toRoy.
Please do so.
And if you haven't met Jordan,please introduce yourself to her
as well and appreciate y'allbeing here this morning.
Thank you.
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