March 28, 2025 • 13 mins
The job market sky isn't falling.
The data says what we're experiencing right now is as average as it gets.
Don't believe me?
If you've got ~ 13 minutes or so, give this a listen.
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--Andy
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Like I do every day uh I check my LinkedIn and I check um different social sites and um on LinkedIn
it's it's it's a bit interesting because I'm basically thrown everything you know everything
comes at me just like it comes at you and on Monday I noticed there was a career coach telling
(00:21):
you this is the worst job market in 20 years which is totally and utterly false I saw another one
saying you know this is the worst round these are the worst rounds of mass layoffs ever you should
be totally frightened and come in listen to me or things of this nature the the sky the Chicken
(00:41):
Little sky is falling kind of stuff and I am not saying that everything is Rosy for everyone I'm
going to tell you a few things just to offer you some perspective because as I mention all the time
no matter what's happening in any Market stock market employ Market any kind of Market things
(01:02):
will zig things will zag some will go up some will go down a lot will remain steady or flattish and
I every month um I I don't I don't read a lot of headlines I don't meaning I don't pay a lot
of attention to to the headlines but I know a lot of people do and they they make judgments and and
(01:25):
and determine their directions based on anecdotal nonsense that that is nothing more than clickbait
or somebody trying to tell sell you something and so every month I look through the 39 page
report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other places where I actually look at the charts
I look at the graphs I look at the trends I look at the breakdowns and uh well wouldn't you know
(01:49):
I I I did that recently and I want to offer you some perspective on the market and my intention
of in offering this to you is to put your nerves at ease okay it is not to tell you that everything
is absolutely Rosy but it's also to explain to you why this Market is exactly average it's EXA
(02:14):
there I couldn't think of a better word other than normal now it may not seem like normal to
you and knowing the audience that's listening to me to today right now or on a recording I know a
lot of you are job searching and job search in any Market is awful it's painful it's confusing
it's lonely it stinks and I know that that there are certain areas and um industries that are not
(02:43):
doing well but let me offer you some more uh what I would call harder evidence not headlines
cool now um one of the things that um that I do is I I look for macro level and micro level
Trend so that I can help people guide people when people ask my opinion about direction or Pursuits
(03:06):
and things like that I want to be knowledgeable so I make sure that I study up on this stuff and
when I say that this Market is average what what I mean it may not be your situation may be great or
it may be poor but in general at a macro level it is not quite the melee that that the media or many
other career coaches would make you would make you think that it is and what makes me say that
(03:30):
well when you look at the number of job openings that are that are out out there publicized those
those job openings are it's roughly about 7.7 million which in Andy maath means there's 38
and a half million jobs because the publicized jobs are only 20% of all job openings so you got
(03:51):
nearly 40 million open jobs I'm not kidding that's that's a pretty good number and you've got about
7.1 million unemployed people and the unemployed people is determined based on survey data called
the household data or the the um establishment data they're both they're both pretty good surveys
that gather insight and of the 7.1 million people that are that are are unemployed looking for a
(04:19):
job 1.5 of them so 20% of those people have been unemployed for a very long time meaning over 27
weeks they're included in the data and they are there are some individuals who are not included
in the data who might have been unemployed for some portions of the last 12 months but if they
have not sought employment in the last four weeks based on the H based on this the the the data the
(04:44):
surveyed data they wouldn't they wouldn't show so let's just say it's even a bigger number than that
but it's not that much bigger go with me on this that's pretty imbalance now the unemployment rate
is 4.1% in the last 12 months the unemployment rate has been between 4.0 and 4.2 those are
relatively historical lows on the lower end of all data gathered of all time there were let's
(05:10):
see what other numbers might be important the the labor participation rate 62.4% is historically
average the number of people that were hired last month 5.4 million the number of people that were
separated 5.3 million the number of people that quit their job last month 3.3 million the number
of people that were actually quit or I should say quit was 3.3 million the number of people
(05:33):
that were laid off was 1.6 million does that sound like a lot does 1.6 million people um being let go
sound like a lot go ahead go in the chat tell me if you think that's a lot sounds like a big number
to me but let's put that number in perspective and before I do since my I was running late and my tea
(05:56):
hasn't steep here we go but 1.6 million sound like a lot would it surprise you to know that for all
time for all time every month the average number of people that are laid off Falls between 1.9 and
2 million people per month but you might never hear of that that happened in 2005 6 7 right so
(06:21):
so you think it's a big number why do you think it's a big number it's actually 300 or 400,000 a
month less than a historical average but why does it feel like a big number it is normal it's lower
than normal do you know what the lowest recorded number of layoffs was in a given month at any at
(06:41):
any moment in time 1. 1287 million June 2021 is the lowest ever so we're right in the middle of
the lowest lowest ever in historical average so I want you to understand that I just want you
to I just want you I just want you to know this that I only say this to you to help give you some
(07:05):
perspective that it's not the end of the world also I I and I I jotted these down too um if you
are in healthare financial services Transportation warehousing social social assistance your numbers
are going up a night before last I met with a guy who was going into his final interviews
(07:26):
the next day yesterday for a very very t Top Dog position in transportation hundreds of thousands
of dollars this guy will earn and I'm seeing it if you are in the federal government well
we know we know those numbers are going down we know that Federal funding is also affecting
employment sporadically but we also know that if you're in retail or business or Professional
(07:52):
Services or a number of these other ones oil and gas construction you're flat you're flat
so and when you're flat what happens is what did I just get done saying 5.4 million people got hired
5.3 million people got let go or quit pretty imbalance pretty average right so so I just I'm
(08:15):
telling you this just so when you got when you're swiping on LinkedIn and you're seeing and hearing
the sky is Fallen that's nonsense now some of you going to say well Andy I'm in Tech and Tech
is in the toilet well I got some data on that too well when you look at when you look at the Labor
(08:36):
Statistics breakdown and they have the household data they have the household data they have the
establishment data and household data will break it down by demographic too it'll break it down
by industry and so on and they don't actually have a classification for technology they don't
they don't lump technologists that way they're technologists that work for fin ccial Services
(09:00):
firms there are technologists that work for healthcare firms there are technologists that work
for software companies there are technologists that work for Professional Services companies and
so on so it's kind of scattered so Tech data has to be extrapolated from other surveys that that
are run by other people to write articles like the Wall Street Journal that published that 5.7%
of the tech labor force is unemployed so I wanted to look to see well how those were classified what
(09:27):
actually is considered Tech and much of those Tech positions were lowest level programming reporting
admin clerical ver very much the lower end of the tech spectrum and I'm not saying that that can't
hurt Executives because units can get can get knocked out but the point is that Tech is going
(09:53):
through a shift and Tech has gone through several shifts in my entire life I mean there were Punch
Cards there was programming for me and you were doing that on a system that was contained captive
or intoned so to speak and then there was client server then there was internet and cloud computing
(10:14):
and so on and as we go through these waves and transitions yeah there's some pain and people
need to retool and other other advancements and Technology enable us to re-engineer processes or
omit them entirely and we're going through some of that right now and that has Ripple
effects I'm not saying that I don't feel for you if you have if you're in technology but in Tech
(10:38):
and the reason this is such a big deal is because typically technology is is insulated from these
Market gations primarily because the world runs on technology and and historically we don't see a lot
of tech technologists unemployed so this becomes great news it enables the media to scare you
(11:00):
and I'm telling you that my calendar is filled I can't get enough people scheduled who have
interviews and need their salary help with salary negotiations the jobs are out there if you're
doing the right things and you're searching the right way yeah it might be tougher right
the Leisure and Hospitality people right now it's actually flat but remember in covid right
(11:22):
that was really rough well tech tech got its time now but it tends to be skewed you can't
just look at a headline and say well 5.7% of people are unemployed cuz that's not entirely
true and not all technologists are created equal so if you really look under the hood or you want
to read the 39 Pages or you want to read all the other charts and graphs and other things that I
(11:45):
look at be my guest but I'm here to tell you don't bother and and trust that if you work the
process I'm telling you there are jobs out there to be had okay so this is my little pet talk to
say it's not as bad as as the media is making it sound it's not as bad the sky isn't falling and
(12:07):
yes some people are taking bumps and bruises but then again this is life it's not fair and that's
going to happen what you do with it is going to have a a a big time effect on your results
meaning how you handle it how you process it and I know I'm totally going to butcher this um but this
is one of the things I always think about from Marcus aurelus one of the five Caesars and I I
(12:29):
know I'm not going to get his quote exactly right but the impediment that's put in front of you is
what incites the action you take meaning you need the impediment to act and the impediment is the
way it's the route it's the it's the it's the path that you're that you're going to go through and so
if you're searching for a job right now I want you to take it on as a challenge but I want you
(12:52):
to gain the ex the benefits of the experience of you going through it why is this happening what is
happening are you can you take advantage of learning new skills can you meet new people do
you have a fresher perspective and and are you are you going to be more grateful for the jobs that
you have or the money that you earn or the people that you work with just think about that so anyway
(13:15):
from time to time I like to give you updates on my interpretation of the employment market and
anybody that wants to have a conversation you need to better you better come arm with some stats not
that you know the world doesn't like old people or the world doesn't like young people or you know
they don't like the color of my skin or I I can't believe I wasted four years on this degree none
of that you are where you are the world doesn't care about your your past what you do with your
(13:40):
present is what what will make you all the time cool all right that's that's my thoughts on that
Like I do every day uh I check my LinkedIn and I check um different social sites and um on LinkedIn
it's it's it's a bit interesting because I'm basically thrown everything you know everything
comes at me just like it comes at you and on Monday I noticed there was a career coach telling
(00:21):
you this is the worst job market in 20 years which is totally and utterly false I saw another one
saying you know this is the worst round these are the worst rounds of mass layoffs ever you should
be totally frightened and come in listen to me or things of this nature the the sky the Chicken
(00:41):
Little sky is falling kind of stuff and I am not saying that everything is Rosy for everyone I'm
going to tell you a few things just to offer you some perspective because as I mention all the time
no matter what's happening in any Market stock market employ Market any kind of Market things
(01:02):
will zig things will zag some will go up some will go down a lot will remain steady or flattish and
I every month um I I don't I don't read a lot of headlines I don't meaning I don't pay a lot
of attention to to the headlines but I know a lot of people do and they they make judgments and and
(01:25):
and determine their directions based on anecdotal nonsense that that is nothing more than clickbait
or somebody trying to tell sell you something and so every month I look through the 39 page
report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other places where I actually look at the charts
I look at the graphs I look at the trends I look at the breakdowns and uh well wouldn't you know
(01:49):
I I I did that recently and I want to offer you some perspective on the market and my intention
of in offering this to you is to put your nerves at ease okay it is not to tell you that everything
is absolutely Rosy but it's also to explain to you why this Market is exactly average it's EXA
(02:14):
there I couldn't think of a better word other than normal now it may not seem like normal to
you and knowing the audience that's listening to me to today right now or on a recording I know a
lot of you are job searching and job search in any Market is awful it's painful it's confusing
it's lonely it stinks and I know that that there are certain areas and um industries that are not
(02:43):
doing well but let me offer you some more uh what I would call harder evidence not headlines
cool now um one of the things that um that I do is I I look for macro level and micro level
Trend so that I can help people guide people when people ask my opinion about direction or Pursuits
(03:06):
and things like that I want to be knowledgeable so I make sure that I study up on this stuff and
when I say that this Market is average what what I mean it may not be your situation may be great or
it may be poor but in general at a macro level it is not quite the melee that that the media or many
other career coaches would make you would make you think that it is and what makes me say that
(03:30):
well when you look at the number of job openings that are that are out out there publicized those
those job openings are it's roughly about 7.7 million which in Andy maath means there's 38
and a half million jobs because the publicized jobs are only 20% of all job openings so you got
(03:51):
nearly 40 million open jobs I'm not kidding that's that's a pretty good number and you've got about
7.1 million unemployed people and the unemployed people is determined based on survey data called
the household data or the the um establishment data they're both they're both pretty good surveys
that gather insight and of the 7.1 million people that are that are are unemployed looking for a
(04:19):
job 1.5 of them so 20% of those people have been unemployed for a very long time meaning over 27
weeks they're included in the data and they are there are some individuals who are not included
in the data who might have been unemployed for some portions of the last 12 months but if they
have not sought employment in the last four weeks based on the H based on this the the the data the
(04:44):
surveyed data they wouldn't they wouldn't show so let's just say it's even a bigger number than that
but it's not that much bigger go with me on this that's pretty imbalance now the unemployment rate
is 4.1% in the last 12 months the unemployment rate has been between 4.0 and 4.2 those are
relatively historical lows on the lower end of all data gathered of all time there were let's
(05:10):
see what other numbers might be important the the labor participation rate 62.4% is historically
average the number of people that were hired last month 5.4 million the number of people that were
separated 5.3 million the number of people that quit their job last month 3.3 million the number
of people that were actually quit or I should say quit was 3.3 million the number of people
(05:33):
that were laid off was 1.6 million does that sound like a lot does 1.6 million people um being let go
sound like a lot go ahead go in the chat tell me if you think that's a lot sounds like a big number
to me but let's put that number in perspective and before I do since my I was running late and my tea
(05:56):
hasn't steep here we go but 1.6 million sound like a lot would it surprise you to know that for all
time for all time every month the average number of people that are laid off Falls between 1.9 and
2 million people per month but you might never hear of that that happened in 2005 6 7 right so
(06:21):
so you think it's a big number why do you think it's a big number it's actually 300 or 400,000 a
month less than a historical average but why does it feel like a big number it is normal it's lower
than normal do you know what the lowest recorded number of layoffs was in a given month at any at
(06:41):
any moment in time 1. 1287 million June 2021 is the lowest ever so we're right in the middle of
the lowest lowest ever in historical average so I want you to understand that I just want you
to I just want you I just want you to know this that I only say this to you to help give you some
(07:05):
perspective that it's not the end of the world also I I and I I jotted these down too um if you
are in healthare financial services Transportation warehousing social social assistance your numbers
are going up a night before last I met with a guy who was going into his final interviews
(07:26):
the next day yesterday for a very very t Top Dog position in transportation hundreds of thousands
of dollars this guy will earn and I'm seeing it if you are in the federal government well
we know we know those numbers are going down we know that Federal funding is also affecting
employment sporadically but we also know that if you're in retail or business or Professional
(07:52):
Services or a number of these other ones oil and gas construction you're flat you're flat
so and when you're flat what happens is what did I just get done saying 5.4 million people got hired
5.3 million people got let go or quit pretty imbalance pretty average right so so I just I'm
(08:15):
telling you this just so when you got when you're swiping on LinkedIn and you're seeing and hearing
the sky is Fallen that's nonsense now some of you going to say well Andy I'm in Tech and Tech
is in the toilet well I got some data on that too well when you look at when you look at the Labor
(08:36):
Statistics breakdown and they have the household data they have the household data they have the
establishment data and household data will break it down by demographic too it'll break it down
by industry and so on and they don't actually have a classification for technology they don't
they don't lump technologists that way they're technologists that work for fin ccial Services
(09:00):
firms there are technologists that work for healthcare firms there are technologists that work
for software companies there are technologists that work for Professional Services companies and
so on so it's kind of scattered so Tech data has to be extrapolated from other surveys that that
are run by other people to write articles like the Wall Street Journal that published that 5.7%
of the tech labor force is unemployed so I wanted to look to see well how those were classified what
(09:27):
actually is considered Tech and much of those Tech positions were lowest level programming reporting
admin clerical ver very much the lower end of the tech spectrum and I'm not saying that that can't
hurt Executives because units can get can get knocked out but the point is that Tech is going
(09:53):
through a shift and Tech has gone through several shifts in my entire life I mean there were Punch
Cards there was programming for me and you were doing that on a system that was contained captive
or intoned so to speak and then there was client server then there was internet and cloud computing
(10:14):
and so on and as we go through these waves and transitions yeah there's some pain and people
need to retool and other other advancements and Technology enable us to re-engineer processes or
omit them entirely and we're going through some of that right now and that has Ripple
effects I'm not saying that I don't feel for you if you have if you're in technology but in Tech
(10:38):
and the reason this is such a big deal is because typically technology is is insulated from these
Market gations primarily because the world runs on technology and and historically we don't see a lot
of tech technologists unemployed so this becomes great news it enables the media to scare you
(11:00):
and I'm telling you that my calendar is filled I can't get enough people scheduled who have
interviews and need their salary help with salary negotiations the jobs are out there if you're
doing the right things and you're searching the right way yeah it might be tougher right
the Leisure and Hospitality people right now it's actually flat but remember in covid right
(11:22):
that was really rough well tech tech got its time now but it tends to be skewed you can't
just look at a headline and say well 5.7% of people are unemployed cuz that's not entirely
true and not all technologists are created equal so if you really look under the hood or you want
to read the 39 Pages or you want to read all the other charts and graphs and other things that I
(11:45):
look at be my guest but I'm here to tell you don't bother and and trust that if you work the
process I'm telling you there are jobs out there to be had okay so this is my little pet talk to
say it's not as bad as as the media is making it sound it's not as bad the sky isn't falling and
(12:07):
yes some people are taking bumps and bruises but then again this is life it's not fair and that's
going to happen what you do with it is going to have a a a big time effect on your results
meaning how you handle it how you process it and I know I'm totally going to butcher this um but this
is one of the things I always think about from Marcus aurelus one of the five Caesars and I I
(12:29):
know I'm not going to get his quote exactly right but the impediment that's put in front of you is
what incites the action you take meaning you need the impediment to act and the impediment is the
way it's the route it's the it's the it's the path that you're that you're going to go through and so
if you're searching for a job right now I want you to take it on as a challenge but I want you
(12:52):
to gain the ex the benefits of the experience of you going through it why is this happening what is
happening are you can you take advantage of learning new skills can you meet new people do
you have a fresher perspective and and are you are you going to be more grateful for the jobs that
you have or the money that you earn or the people that you work with just think about that so anyway
(13:15):
from time to time I like to give you updates on my interpretation of the employment market and
anybody that wants to have a conversation you need to better you better come arm with some stats not
that you know the world doesn't like old people or the world doesn't like young people or you know
they don't like the color of my skin or I I can't believe I wasted four years on this degree none
of that you are where you are the world doesn't care about your your past what you do with your
(13:40):
present is what what will make you all the time cool all right that's that's my thoughts on that
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