Top Traders Unplugged

Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversi...

From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how ...

When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Be...

What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seein...

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for inve...

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on mo...

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than deliv...

What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about ow...

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation...

Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking poi...

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be c...

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. Fr...

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. W...

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG...

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-worl...

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t...

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continu...

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to ...

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent un...