Cones, Chaos, and Clarity: The State of Hurricane Modeling

Guest: Dr. Andy Hazelton, University of Miami

When a hurricane’s on the horizon, we turn to the forecast models—those swirling graphics and spaghetti plots that try to predict where the storm will go and how strong it might get. But behind every line and cone is a team of scientists working to make those models faster, smarter, and more accurate. One of those scientists is Dr. Andrew Hazelton, a hurricane modeling specialist who’s worked on some of the most advanced tools used by the National Weather Service. From tracking rapid intensification to improving ensemble forecasts, Dr. Hazelton has been on the front lines of one of the most complex challenges in meteorology. Today, we talk about where hurricane modeling stands, where it’s heading, and what it means for those of us who rely on it when the next storm takes aim.

Chapters

1. 00:00 Introduction to Hurricane Modeling
2. 03:03 Dr. Andrew Hazelton's Journey into Meteorology
3. 06:04 The Role of Hurricane Hunters
4. 08:57 Key Components of Hurricane Models
5. 12:01 Advancements in Hurricane Forecasting Models
6. 14:53 The Impact of AI on Hurricane Forecasting
7. 18:02 Real-Time Testing and Model Validation
8. 21:00 The Importance of Ocean Conditions
9. 23:54 Future of Hurricane Forecasting
10. 26:52 Challenges in Communicating Hurricane Forecasts
11. 29:35 Final Thoughts on the Current Hurricane Season

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