16 Bowl Game Picks Dec 24-30 | Full Predictions & Analysis - Winning Cures Everything

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
On today's show, it's Bowl Previews and Picks, Part three.
We're going over the bowls from December twenty fourth through
December thirtieth, and we got sixteen of them to discuss. Well,
come in. It's Winning Cures Everything, a college football podcast.
I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all

(00:21):
the different socials, most active on X Obviously, if you'd
like to get in touch with me the old school way,
you can do that Gary at Winning Cures Everything dot com.
Make sure we're in subscribe to the podcast. Gonna have
some audio only stuff going on over there throughout the
bowl season, throughout the off season as well, So gonna

(00:41):
be a lot of things that I'm you know, we're
eight years into this. I think it is started in
twenty well started in twenty sixteen. The YouTube channel started
in twenty eighteen, so yeah, we've been at this quite
a while, pretty long time. But subscribe to the pod
because I'm gonna be doing audio only. You can also
be a member of course, buy me a coffee. Dot

(01:04):
com slash Winning Cure is gonna have some bonus content
up over there, more stats and whatnot going up over
there very very soon, So make sure and check that out.
Let's not waste time. We're gonna kind of go through
these pretty quick because we got sixteen bowl games to
discuss tonight again December twenty fourth through December thirtieth. I
am recording this on Monday, December the fifteenth, because my

(01:28):
schedule is about to get crazy and I want to
be able to hit all of these games. So let's
not waste time. Let's get to it. Wednesday, December twenty fourth,
we have got the Hawaii Bowl with Cal against Hawaii.
So yes, a home game for the Warriors here and
in the return of Nick Rolovich, former Hawaii coach. Has

(01:49):
been out of college football for a little while, but
he was a senior offensive analyst for the cow Bears
this year. Took over as the head coach when they
fired Justin Wilcox just a couple of weeks ago. Gotta
win over SMU in the finale. This one's seven pm
Central time, God's time zone on ESPN. That's right on
Christmas Eve right now. Cal favored by one and a

(02:11):
half to two and a half depending on the book
total of fifty four and a half on this one.
And let's go ahead and go through some of the
numbers which you can see on the screen. My stats
projected spread if everybody's healthy, all that kind of stuff,
would have Hawaii by three and a half points. The
last four weeks would actually have Cal favored by maybe
about six and a half. Power rating actually has Hawaii

(02:33):
favored by almost two points. Now. Cal does have some
potential opt outs. Hezekiah Massis, that is, the cornerback and
the linebacker, Kade you Uluave. I hope we get that right.
Jared kiahwe I froze up there, didn't I have a

(02:57):
jks Jared kiahwe sung pull it, Telly. I hope we
got that right now. I've tried to say that name
right all year. Either way, looks like he's probably gonna play.
He's coming back for new head coach Tosh Lapoi. I
think he's gonna play in this game, is what it is.
Kyle does have some injuries. The right guard, Uh, let's
see Vatikani, the tight end Mini, the wide receiver's King

(03:20):
and Hamper. Safety Crosby has been out for a while.
The offense or the outside linebacker excuse me, McCullough, Uh,
defensive back Cam Sidney. Those guys who knows who is
gonna play out of that group. As I brought up,
Justin Wilcox was fired at the end of the year. Okay, Uh,
Hawaii transfer portal. Hawaii's got some guys that are gonna

(03:41):
be out. The wide receiver Jackson Harris, He's got nine
hundred and sixty three yards receiving in twelve touchdowns. Uh,
he is in the transfer portal. Not sure if that
means he's not gonna play, but we shall see. Hawaii
does have injuries as well. Uh, the linebacker Otis, cornerback Edwards,
the second wide receiver Kinnicle, Uh knockle, however you say it, so,

(04:03):
it doesn't look like it's going to be crazy. If
anybody's got the worst of it, it looks like it's
probably gonna be Cal dealing with some of these injuries
and whatnot. I'm kind of surprised that Cal is favored
here because Hawaii is outrageous at home. They're like eleven
and one against the spread at home on the island.
Hawaii as far as bowl games go one to zero

(04:26):
in bowl games since twenty twenty against the spread, and
Cal is zero to two against the spread in bowl
games since twenty twenty, they are minus twelve point three.
Now you're not dealing with Justin Wilcox. You got Nick Rolovich,
probably a different team. Rollo was gonna stay on staff
with tash Lapoy. We'll see exactly what that means. I

(04:48):
think he's gonna be the quarterbacks coach, so he's gonna
stay with JKS. Let's start with Hawaii on offense. This
is the number seventy PPA margin team in the country
that's predicted points at margin. CAL is number ninety two,
so Cayle's offense number one oh four. We know that
the quarterback is really good, but overall efficiency they have
not been great by any stretch of the imagination. Hawaii

(05:13):
is number thirty in passing success rate. They are number
four in pass rate. They throw the ball over sixty
one percent of the time. Cal's defense is number twenty
seven against the pass, so they're pretty good there. Hawaii
not very good at running it, KYL not very good
at stopping it. So you've got strength on strength here
when Hawaii's got the football. On the other side, CAL

(05:33):
is not good at running the football. Hawaii is good
at defending it. KL is not great throwing it. There
are number forty in passing success rate, but their number
seventy six in yards per attempt, number seventy five in QBR,
and number eighty five in predicted points added per pass.
Hawaii is number sixty in PPA allowed per pass, number
fifty three in QBR allowed, number forty six in passing
success rate allowed. So Hawaii actually a little bit better

(05:58):
against the pass then CAL is at actually passing the
ball as far as running it. Like I said, Cal
number one thirty four in PPA per rush, number one
thirty six in yards per rush. They are just not good,
not efficient running the football. Hawaii on offense number seventy
six in points per scoring opportunity. Cal's defense is number
sixty two, but there is a huge difference in scoring

(06:20):
opportunities per game. That's when the opponent gets a first
down inside the opponent's forty yard line. Hawaii number seventy
one in scoring opportunities per game, so six drives per
game that they get inside the forty. Col's defense is
number one twenty six, so they allow quite a few.
Number they're five point five to eight is what they allow.

(06:41):
We'll see what that ends up looking like. Cal is
number sixty eight in points per scoring opportunity, number one
oh one in scoring opportunities per game. The Hawaii defense
number forty seven in scoring opportunities allowed, number thirty nine
in points per scoring opportunity. So the Hawaii defense actually
pretty good. You look at Raw five factors rank, Hawaii
is number sixty five. Cal is number eighty nine. There

(07:03):
is a huge talent difference here Cal number fifty five,
Hawaiian number one twenty nine. But Hawaii has played above
their head basically all season. Look at their offensive position
groups are not good at least from a talent standpoint,
and yet they have played outstanding all year, especially on

(07:25):
the island. So I look at this, and you know
Cal is favored by two and a half. Yeah, one
and a half to two and a half. I've got
Hawaii favored in two of my metrics. I'm gonna go
with that. So give me the Rainbow Warriors plus two
and a half at home the game above Sports Bowl

(07:49):
the day after Christmas. Of course, Central Michigan and Northwestern
It's Friday, December twenty sixth noon Central time on ESPN
and inter interesting spot here, Central Michigan is a ten
and a half point dog. This thing was out at
twelve and a half, so it has come down quite

(08:11):
a bit. Totally is forty three and a half on
this It's in Detroit, Michigan, So Central Michigan not as
far of a drive as Northwestern, but regardless, it is
what it is ppa margin. Central Michigan number fifty three.
Their defense is really good. Northwestern number eighty nine. But

(08:31):
the strength of scheduled difference between these two is pretty massive.
Central Michigan number one oh one, Northwestern number thirty one.
Looking at portal and opt outs and injuries and all that,
Central Michigan, the defensive end Heldman is a potential opt
out transfer portal. The defensive lineman Cade Costas only played

(08:53):
one hundred and three snaps. He is in the portal
he could still play, we'll see, And as far as
injuries go for Central Michigan. The quarterback Angel Flores, he
was a backup. He has not played since Week nine,
so not a ton there for Northwestern potential opt outs.
The left tackle Tiernan defensive end Sokka. Both of those

(09:16):
guys are potential opt outs as far as Northwestern injuries.
The running back Caleb Komalafe. He missed the finale the
running back Joseph Hyman left the finale with an injury.
The wide receiver Drew Wagner he last played in Week twelve,
cornerback Davis, defensive end Aiden Hubbard, and the defensive end Haggarty.
All of those guys are hurt, but David Brown said

(09:40):
he's confident in Komalafe and Hyman being back. Those are
the two running backs. He's unsure about the status of Hubbard.
We'll see what that means. Who knows, who knows. But overall,
talent still a huge factor here because Northwestern is number sixty,
Central Michigan number one twenty seven. Looking at pace of play,

(10:04):
Northwestern is number one thirty one, Central Michigan number one
thirty four. The Central Michigan defense is probably the best
unit on the field here. They're number thirty four and
ppa allowed per drive, number fifty one in defensive success allowed,
Northwestern number fifty eight in offensive success allowed are not allowed,
excuse me, just an offensive success They're number one eighteen
in defensive success allowed. Slow plotting game, Central Michigan is

(10:31):
I mean they run the ball over sixty five percent
to almost sixty six percent of the time. They're pretty
good throwing it number sixteen in PPA per pass. They're
number one eleven in passing success rate, but that's because
they're number thirty one in passing explosiveness. Northwestern is number
eighty nine in passing explosiveness allowed, and Northwestern not good
at defending the run number one twenty three and rushing

(10:53):
success allowed. Well, Central Michigan runs it a lot. I
mean their head coach is the former Army offensive line
coach Matt Drinkle. David Brown has a there's something about
the culture of this bunch. You look at the bowl
spread records, and Northwestern is two and oh since twenty
twenty plus thirteen points. They always play harder in bowl

(11:16):
games for whatever reason. But Central Michigan one and oh
against the spread in bowl games plus eight and a half.
If I'm not mistaken. The only bowl that they've been
in since twenty twenty is I want to say the
Sun Bowl where they beat Washington State. Might be wrong
about that. We'll see. We'll see either way. Northwestern better

(11:39):
as far as penalties per game, Central Michigan way better.
As far as turnover margin, special team's efficiency, Northwestern massive
edge number fifteen to number eighty seven. As far as
finishing drives. Northwestern on offense number one nineteen in points
per scoring opportunity, Central Michigan's defense number twenty one. On
the other side, you've got at Central Michigan number seventy

(12:01):
eight in points per scoring opportunity in Northwestern at number
forty six. This is I was a little shocked at
this number. Like I said, Northwestern favorite by ten and
a half. It was at twelve and a half this
time last week. My power rating has Northwestern by eight.
My projected stat spread has Northwestern by seven point sixty

(12:24):
nine nice, and the last four weeks actually has Northwestern
by just a point and a half. So you look
at all those numbers, all of them are under that
ten and a half. I wish this thing was still eleven.
I would like that key number there. But even at
ten and a half, I still feel like Central Michigan
is going to muck this thing up. It'll come down

(12:48):
to the wire. I think even if Northwestern does win,
I imagine it will be by less than ten and a
half points, maybe at thirty one to twenty one AD
that's maybe too many points because we've got a total
here of forty three and a half. That's down from
forty four and a half, so you're maybe looking at
twenty four to fourteen, twenty seven to seventeen kind of

(13:11):
thing somewhere around there. Yeah, I feel good about this.
I will take Central Michigan plus the ten and a
half the Rate Bowl on Friday, December twenty sixth. This
one is at three thirty pm Central Time, God's time zone,
of course, on ESPN. New Mexico taking on Minnesota. Of course,

(13:32):
new coach Jason Eck led New Mexico to a nine
win season. Minnesota seven and five again. PJ. Fleck just
continues to do the thing. Three and one against the
spread in bowl game since twenty twenty, they are plus three.
New Mexico has not made a bowl since twenty twenty.
Broncos Big Bad Boys got close last year, but now

(13:55):
Jason Eck, I mean nine and three straight up seven
and five against the spread. Minnesota has not been covering
very much this year, but they also have not been
very good this year at all. Ninety seven in PBA margin.
New Mexico is fifty second in PBA margin. They are
pretty good on defense, pretty good on offense. Minnesota worse

(14:16):
on offense than they are on defense, but even the
defense has not been great by any stretch. But the
strength of schedule difference between these two is just massive.
New Mexico eighty ninth in strength to schedule, Minnesota is
thirty sixth. So let's see Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Where is

(14:39):
that thing? Phoenix, Arizona. I'm not gonna say it's home
field for New Mexico, but I think they're a little
more comfortable in that weather than Minnesota would be. Of course,
it is the wintertime, so may not make a difference
at all. Okay, let's dive into this. My projected stat
spread has Minnesota by three point one. Three power rating

(15:02):
has Minnesota by three point four. Last four weeks has
Minnesota by six, and Minnesota right now is favored by
two and a half with a total of forty six
and a half to forty seven and a half. So
that total is coming down just a little bit. And
if you look at these two teams, it kind of
makes sense. Minnesota not efficient on offense at all. They
are number ninety eight in points per game. New Mexico

(15:25):
is number sixty eight in offensive points per game, but
they are number one oh seven in pace of play.
Minnesota number one twenty two in pace of play as well.
Let's start with Minnesota on offense. They throw it a lot,
almost fifty four percent of the time, but they're not
good at it. They're number one sixteen in yards per
attempt number eighty nine and PPA per pass number eighty eight,
in QBR number ninety four and passing success rate. New

(15:48):
Mexico is seventy eighty ninety eight and sixty second in those,
so a little bit better, but not much. There's also
a massive talent discrepancy here. We'll talk about that just
a minute. New Mexico is really good against the run.
I don't know if Darius Taylor is going to play
in this. We'll talk about some of the injuries and

(16:09):
potential opt outs, all that kind of stuff here in
just a minute, but we'll see. We'll see what this
Minnesota offense looks like. New Mexico I would imagine gonna
be pretty fired up for this because they have not
made a Bowl in a very long time. Special team
defficiency in New Mexico's number sixteen. Minnesota is outside the
top one twenty overall talent, Minnesota is top fifty. New

(16:31):
Mexico is outside the top one fifteen. So let's look
at the injuries here. New Mexico got quite the list.
The ones that it looks like are going to play.
The guard Richard Pierce, safety Drew Speech, defensive tackle Xavier Slayton.
Those guys all missed the last two weeks. The wide

(16:54):
receiver Michael Buckley, and the cornerback Abraham Williams. Both of
those were hurt way back, I believe in October. But
the first three they're probably gonna have a decent shot
to suit up here New Mexico. Potential opt outs. Defensive
end Keyshawn James Newby, we'll see he might be opting
out to transfer. We'll see what that means. Minnesota in

(17:17):
the transfer portal. You've got the running back too. E G. Boy,
I did not say that right, But Minnesota fans, you
jump in here and tell me exactly how you're supposed
to say that. He had four hundred ninety five yards
rushing thus far this year. As far as potential opt outs,
Darius Taylor has been injured off and on for years
at this point, so he could opt out. Defensive tackle,

(17:37):
Eastern defensive end Anthony Smith. Both of those guys could
opt out. As far as injuries. The three guys that
missed the finale were the cornerback Brian, right guard Marshall,
and the left sorry not the left, the linebacker Matt Kingsbury.
All of those guys missed the final. Maybe they just
decided to play youth at the end of the season.

(17:58):
Who knows. Very curious about what that's gonna mean. New
Mexico and offense runs some really weird stuff. You have
to be super prepared for it, and Minnesota has had
plenty of time to study film and figure out exactly
what it is that New Mexico runs. The question is
do they care? With PJ Fleck teams, they always care.

(18:23):
Minnesota is six and oh straight up in bowl games
under PJ. Fleck. They take bowl games seriously. Like I said,
three and one against the spread in the four bowls
since twenty twenty. So you look at the five factors rank,
New Mexico certainly favors higher their number forty nine, Minnesota

(18:44):
number seventy four. But when you look at five factors
plus talent, New Mexico eighty eight and Minnesota number forty five.
So there's a massive, massive difference here. I think both
teams are going to be motivated. I think both are
going to be fired up. I understand everybody wanting to
jump on the New Mexico bandwagon. New Mexico number one

(19:06):
twenty four in giveaways per game. Minnesota is number sixty
six and takeaways per game in Minnesota does not turn
the ball over there number four in giveaways per game
at Minnesota betteran penalties per game. The talent thing is
just a little too much for me. I think Minnesota

(19:27):
handles this. I think they get it done. New Mexico
they'll give it a fight, but this thing is at
two and a half. I'll take the favorite. Give me
Minnesota minus two and a half. The First Responder Bowl
in Dallas, Texas. This one is on Friday, December twenty
sixth FIU against UTSA seven pm Central Time on ESPN,

(19:50):
and good gracious UTSA favored by eight and a half
with a total of fifty nine and a half on
this one. Dallas is not too terribly far from from UTSA.
But how fired up as the fan base going to
be for this Bowl game? We shall see, we shall see.
I FIU really surprising this far or this season seven

(20:11):
and five straight up UTSA six and six IU. This
is their first bowl game since twenty twenty. UTSA has
made five bowls since twenty twenty. They are three and
two against the spread plus two point nine. And when
you look at the projected stats numbers would have UTSA
favored by eight point six two. My last four weeks
would have UTSA only favored by four point four, and

(20:33):
my power rating has UTSA favored by six point eight. Now,
when you look at some of this, the potential opt outs.
If I use stud cornerback Brian Blades the second, he
could opt out of this game. In the transfer portal,
you get another cornerback, mister Clark. That's a fun name.
He's played seven hundred and seventy six snaps. That's wild.

(20:58):
IFIU injuries, the quarterback Joe Pazenski, he started a few
games before the original starter Keon Jenkins returned from an injury.
We'll see what that means. As far as UTSA, the
defensive linement o two to two. He's in the portal.
Don't know if he's gonna play or not. Potential opt outs.
The linebacker Shad Banks Junior, he could opt out. And

(21:21):
then as far as injuries, the quarterback Meyer he missed
the finale. The outside linebacker Vikshaw missed the finale. Right
guard Daryl Jones got hurt in week thirteen, he did
not play in the finale. Tight end three Dan Dishman,
and the free safety jer Marius Lewis who got hurt
in week twelve, that munch. Who knows who's gonna end
up shooting up out of that. But those are names

(21:42):
to pay attention to. Notice that you didn't really see
a lot as far as offensive opt outs for UTSA,
and that is a good thing for them because they
like to sling it around a little bit. Number forty
three in pass rate. They are number thirty seven in QBR,
number thirty three in passing success well. FIU is pretty
good against the pass, number thirty nine in passing success allowed,

(22:04):
number fifty n PPA allowed per pass, but they're not
good against the run. UTSA is not great against the run.
But UTSA is number forty eight in rushing explosiveness. FIU
is number one, thirty four in rushing explosiveness allowed. That
ain't good. UTSA on offense number forty seven. In points
per scoring opportunity, FIU is number forty. So we're gonna

(22:30):
see who has the better the better bunch there when
it comes to allowing points in scoring in scoring position,
we'll call it. That's when you get a first down
inside of the opponent's forty yard line, that is a
scoring opportunity. Overall talent rank, FIU is number ninety six.
UTSA is number sixty eight. Special teams efficiency UTSA is

(22:51):
number forty seven. FIU is number ninety seven. On the
other side, when FIU has the ball, pretty good running it,
they're not great throwing it, number sixty eight and PPAPRI
pass number seventy nine in QBR. But UTSA and those
metrics is number ninety eight, number one thirteen. On defense,
they're not good at stopping the past. Luckily for them,

(23:12):
FIU is not great at throwing it. So you look
at FIU running the football. They are number fifty nine
in rush rate almost fifty two percent of the time,
but their number one ten and rushing success UTSA is
number twenty seven in rushing success allowed offensive line yards
stuff rate. FIU does not measure up here. We'll see

(23:35):
what that looks like. But yeah, number forty one in
PPA per rush though, and it's because they're pretty explosive. Well,
Utsa's defense is number fifty two and rushing explosiveness allowed
points per scoring opportunity IU is number thirty one. At
finishing drives, UTSA is number one twenty five. Now. UTSA

(23:56):
also is number twenty four in scoring opportunities allowed per game.
So they don't let you get down there very often,
but when you do, you're gonna score basically every time.
So we'll see what FIU does how they're able to
do this on a down to down basis. Basically, I
look at this and it was at nine and a

(24:19):
half and then it dropped down to eight and a half.
So there is some FIU love in the market here,
but you look at five factors and UTSA is just
an overall better team. They are more talented, and I
think that they're going to be fired up for this.
I know i FIU is going to be fired up,
but I think UTSA wants to end the season the

(24:40):
right way. Jeff Trailer is saying all the right things.
I think they're going to be fired up for this,
and they are just an overall better football team. So
this thing being at eight and a half, it's kind
of in no man's land. I'm gonna go with the favorite.
Give me utsa eight and a half. Are you tired

(25:02):
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(25:23):
of course jump in the comments. Let me know what
you guys think about all these different Bowl games. Give
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to hear from all of you on this, So go
ahead and jump in there and make sure that you
are subscribed. The go Bowling Military Bowl in an Applis, Maryland.
We got Pitt going up against the East Carolina and

(25:44):
this is a fun matchup. I'll go ahead and tell
you that this is a fun game. This one at
ten am Central time, of course God's time zone on
ESPN Saturday, December twenty seventh. There's a lot of Bowl
games that day, a lot of games, but a fun
way to start it off. Pitt favored by seven to
seven and a half with a total of fifty seven
and a half on this one. When the spread was

(26:06):
created or when the sheet was created, this thing was
Pitt minus six. ECU has had some coaching changes since then.
The defensive coordinator, Josh Aldridge, he left to go to USF.
Offensive coordinator John David Baker. He's head at Ole Miss.
He's going to be the offensive coordinator there. I'm not

(26:27):
sure exactly who is. I know that East Carolina has
Hauser that is going to enter the portal. He hasn't
yet because obviously the thing don't open until January second.
But I don't believe that he's gonna sit out this game.

(26:47):
It doesn't look like it thus far. We'll see, we'll
see what that means. Looking at the numbers, I got
a lot of advantages for East Carolina here. I've got
PIT favored by point two to three points. As far
as projected stats spread, it's concerned. I've got a projected

(27:09):
total of only fifty one and a half. My power
rating has PIT by two and a half, but my
last four weeks has PIT by nine. So Pitt played
really well against Georgia Tech, against Miami and Notre Dame.
Two should be playoff teams, one of them is, one
of them isn't. But regardless, they just didn't look great.

(27:30):
And I am not expecting East Carolina to be able
to get after Mason Heinchel the way that Miami did,
or Notre Dame for that matter. Now, East Carolina's numbers
are going to look pretty good on defense, but even still,
East Carolina, for as good as their numbers were only
eight and four straight up, which is kind of goofy,

(27:52):
but still, Pitt is one and two against the spread
in their last three bowls minus one point seven East
Carolina two to zero plus fourteen and a half in
their bowl games since since twenty twenty. So let's talk
about it. When East Carolina is on offense, pretty good

(28:14):
throwing the ball. That is the weakness of this pit defense.
East Carolina thirty ninth in PBA pri pass pit defense
number sixty three, East Carolina number seventy four in Yorks
per attempt or sorry number thirty four in Yords per attempt,
Pitt's defense number fifty nine. Passing success rate East Carolina
is number fifteen, Pitt Is number thirty four. So Pitt

(28:37):
is pretty good at this stuff. I mean, they're pretty
good at defending the pass, but they're really good at
defending the run. Now East Carolina doess they do run
the ball over fifty three percent of the time, but
they are gonna They're gonna find a brick ball here. Basically,
let's let's talk about some of the potential opt outs injuries.

(28:59):
I like stuff Pitt, the running back Desmond Reid, the
linebackers Lewis and Biles, and the right tackle Ryan Bear
those are all potential opt outs for Pitt here. Along
with that, they do have some injuries. Of course, Desmond
Reid missed the final two games, the defensive tackle Fitzsimmons,
he last played in week ten, the right guard Ryan Corretta,

(29:21):
he didn't play in the last two games, and the
left guard Keith Govilla, he last played in week five,
so they've had a replacement for that East Carolina injuries.
The left guard Panda Ascu didn't play in the finale,
and the cornerback received reason he last played in week seven.
And again we don't know what's up with Howser. We'll see.
I would imagine he plays, but you never know. A

(29:42):
big strength of schedule difference between these two East Carolina
Number one hundred, Pit number fifty. As far as finishing drives,
East Carolina number thirty eight in points per scoring opportunity,
Pitt is number one sixteen. East Carolina number fourteen in
scoring opportunity per game. Pitt is number eight at scoring

(30:04):
opportunities allowed per game. So they're I'm gonna guess they're
not gonna let East Carolina down there a lot, but
we'll see. We'll see what that looks like. When Pitt
is on offense. They're not very good run in the
football and it looks like they're probably not gonna have
Reid here, so it's gonna be even more difficult because
East Carolina's defense is good against the run. Like that's

(30:27):
just putting it as mildly as possible. They are number
twelve in PBA allowed per rush, Pitt is number eighty
four yards per rush, ECU number thirty four in yards allowed.
Pitt is number one seventeen in yards per rush. On offense,
they are just it's easiest way to say this. East

(30:49):
Carolina is number ten and rushing success allowed. Pit is
number one hundred. Now on the other side, Pitt throws
the ball over fifty five percent of the time. It's
part of that k Bell offense is what it is.
They are number seventy one in passing success rate. East
Carolina's defense number thirty six. There are number forty three
in yards per attempt. East Carolina's number thirty eight. Yeah,

(31:14):
in Pitt number sixty seven in points per scoring opportunity,
East Carolina is number twenty three. So East Carolina, you know,
number twenty five in five factors rank, Pitt is number
fifty two. But when you toss in talent, because you're
looking at number fifty three against number seventy seven, all
of a sudden, that thing flips and Pitt is number
forty and East Carolina's number sixty losing the coordinators? How

(31:40):
much does that hurt? Head coach are still there. They've
got guys that know the system should be okay. I
just I wonder about the talent difference. I wonder about
the motivation here, and does Houser play. Kind of sounds
like I think he might, But the way that this

(32:00):
number is going, it kind of looks like he's not
going to. If he doesn't, that's gonna be very interesting
because East Carolina could easily win this football game, and
yet this thing has gotten to a touchdown or more
than that, and I think that has to have It's
got something to do with Hawser, I would imagine. So

(32:23):
we're gonna look at this thing as if Houser is
not playing. I would highly recommend that you wait until
bowl time to figure out who is actually gonna play
in this game, even if Hawser doesn't play. You know,
I think the number got too high. I think the

(32:46):
number got too high. Let's go East Carolina plus seven
and a half. Whether Hawser plays or not, I don't
think it necessarily matters. I do think that Pitt doesn't
always show up in bowl games. Nordoozi, you've seen him
in bowl games before. You know what this guy does.
What was it? It was one and two? Yeah, one

(33:07):
and two against the spread minus one point seven. East
Carolina shows up for him? Yeah, I think East Carolina
shows up here and they make it a game. So
I will I will take the seven and a half.
Give me the Pirates. Saturday, December twenty seven to eleven
am Central Time on Where are We ABC? That's right,

(33:29):
the Bad Boy Mower's Pinstripe Bowl, this one in the
Bronx in New York, Penn State against Clemson, and I
would imagine Penn State will have a significantly bigger fan advantage,
But neither of these teams saw this as being their
bowl destination. I will I will certainly say that Clemson

(33:53):
favored by three and a half with a total of
forty eight and a half on this and it has
not moved in a week. And I don't blame anybody,
because how in the world could you possibly bet this
game when you have no idea Penn State opt outs.
You've already got the defensive tackle Durant, the safety Wheatley,
the left guard ion it ione A. I don't know

(34:17):
why I keep saying that wrong. The left guard is
opting out. How's that you do have potential opt outs?
The defensive end denied Dennis Sutton, the running back ka
Tron Allen, the running back Nicholas Singleton, cornerback AJ Harris,
wide receiver Trevor Pania, linebacker Amari Campbell, left tackle Drew Shelton,
right tackle Nolan Rucci. They have an interim head coach,

(34:40):
The captain of the team, Durant has already opted out
Drew Aller, of course out for the year. The linebacker
Tony Rojas is out for the year and then your
coaching changes. Right, You've got Matt Campbell coming in, but
you fired James Franklin in the middle of the season.
Terry Smith over his interim co offensive coordinator and tight

(35:01):
ends coach Ty Howey. He's been hired as the offensive
coordinator et Virginia Tech. You've got a bunch of this
staff that is following James Franklin down to Blacksburg. The
defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is headed to Tennessee. Any codl Nicky,
I have no idea what codon Nicky's doing. I mean,
good gracious. The offensive line coach is going to be
Florida's next offensive line coach? Who knows? Who knows? And

(35:25):
yet on the other side, the defensive tackle Kate part
he has opted out for Clemson. The safety Khalil Barnes,
he is in the transfer portal, so who knows if
that means that he's going to play or not. As
far as potential opt outs, Clemson has just as many
as Penn State. Right defensive tackle Peter Woods, defensive end

(35:47):
t J. Parker, the cornerback Avion Terrell, and the wide
receiver Antonio Williams. All of those are already declared for
the NFL Draft. The cornerback Jayden Lucas, defensive end Will Helt,
and the left tackle Blake Miller are all potential opt outs.
The quarterback kpe club Nick, though, has said that he
is going to play. We'll see what that means. Clemson,

(36:08):
by the way, seven and five Penn State. Six and
six Penn State had to win their last three games
to get to a bowl game. The head coach, Dabo
Sweeney did say that he's not expecting many opt outs,
but who knows. Clemson is looking to extend his FBS
record of consecutive years with a postseason victory to fifteen.

(36:32):
That's a crazy, crazy number. So if you're fighting for something, obviously,
it seems like Clemson is much more motivated here than
Penn State. I don't even know who's left in the
football building for Penn State. Clemson does have some injuries.
The offensive lineman Jacobs, he got hurt in Week twelve.
He's out for the All of these guys are out

(36:52):
for the year, by the way, So Jacob's the offensive lineman,
wide receiver westco the right guard Parks, and the tight
end Pat Henry. All those guys out for the rest
of the year. The numbers I don't think are gonna
matter here. Penn State number twenty nine and PBA margin.
Clemson is number forty three. That Penn State defense was

(37:15):
just not nearly as good once Rojas went out, like,
just not even close. They're both kind of slow. Clemson
number eighty in plays per minute and Penn State number
one oh two. Penn State not terrible on offense. They
can still run the ball. Now, obviously it all depends

(37:36):
on who the hell plays right, but number twenty four
and PPA per rush. They run the ball over fifty
six percent of the time. Their number twenty five and
rushing success rate. So you got a young quarterback. Everybody
knows that you're going to run the ball, and they
were still able to run it. Now, some of that
had to do with the strength of schedule and whatnot,

(37:58):
especially down the stretch, but Penn State number seventeen is
shooting the schedule, Clemson number sixty two. And yet I
still am leaning Clemson because I think that they've still
got their head coach, they still got their coordinators, they
still got their guys, and their quarterback has already said
that they're playing, or that he's playing. I don't know

(38:19):
what Penn State is going to look like. Penn State
does have a special team's advantage and a bit of
a talent advantage that's all based on whether or not
those players play. So both of these teams number twenty
and number twenty one in five factors rank Penn State.

(38:41):
You look at their numbers and it's just shocking to
me that they lost six games like that. There's just
no I don't understand it. Number twenty four in points
for scoring opportunity for Penn State's offense, number forty eight
points per scoring opportunity on defense. I think you're more

(39:03):
likely to have guys play for Clemson than you are
for Penn State. And with that said, even though the
numbers all certainly lean Penn State, Power rating has Penn
State minus four and a half, projected stat spread has
Pen State by a point and a half. Last four
weeks has Clemson minus two. But again, we're doing this
on December fifteenth, and I'm gonna guess that Penn State

(39:26):
will have some opt outs. I don't know that Clemson
is going to have a lot. And with that said,
I'll take Clemson. Give me the Tigers minus the three
and a half Saturday, December twenty seventh, one fifteen pm
Central Time, the Wasabi Finway Bowl, and you got Army
playing against Yukon, and this Yukon team is going to

(39:47):
look drastically different than what you have seen so far
this year. Jim Mora is headed to Colorado State, his
offensive coordinator is headed to TCU. The quarterback Joe Fagnano
is potentially going to opt out. There are reports that
say that he's not going to play. And the wide
receiver Skylar Bell, who has Senior Bowl bound, both of

(40:09):
them are not going to play here Yukon Transfer Portal.
You got the right guard Brady Weyburn, and the running
back Cam Edwards, who is saying that he's still going
to play, but obviously we'll see. And then of course
you've got tight end three Veren he's injured, last played
in week eleven, Defensive tackle Carol Jackson last played in

(40:30):
week twelve, and the safety Mills last played in week
twelve as well. Army looks like they're a bit healthier.
They looked good against Navy, even in a loss. We'll see,
we'll see what they look like here. But this thing
opened as Army a three point favorite, and now you've
got Army as an eight and a half point favorite

(40:52):
with a total of forty six and a half to
forty seven and a half depending on which book you
get it at. It opened at fifty and a half
for the total. So let's these numbers are not gonna
matter very much. Yukon's offense was number eighteen and PBA
per play number thirty two in offensive success rate, the
Army defense number one twenty one. They are terrible against

(41:14):
the pass. But if Facnano is not gonna play, and
the wide receiver Skylar Bell is not gonna play, and
you're right guard may not be playing, who knows, but
I do find it difficult, Like the reason that everybody
has been on Army when it was less than a touchdown,

(41:35):
it made a whole lot of sense because you know
what you're gonna get from Army. You know what the
motivation is. They show up for every bowl game. Two
and one against the spread in bowl since twenty twenty
plus two point eight, Yukon one and one against the
spread in bowl since twenty twenty plus six point eight.
Both of these teams are fairly motivated. Yukon significantly better

(41:58):
on special teams. The talent is in Yukon's favor, although
it's not crazy. The talent's always going to be in
the favor of whoever's playing against the Service academy. But
you know, Service academies are disciplined, so you know exactly
what they're going to look like. But man, that Army defense,
it was just bad this year. Number one oh three

(42:20):
in PPA per pass. There are number fifty nine in
yards allowed for attempt, number sixty eight in QBR allowed,
but they're number one twenty two in passing success allowed,
number one twenty one in havoc Yukon it doesn't look
like they're going to have a ton of opt outs,
but when your quarterback and your wide receiver are gone,
I mean, you never know, never know what that's going

(42:41):
to look like. Yukon number four in turnover margin. Army
is number thirty five. Yukon's big thing is they don't
throw interceptions, But how do you know when you don't
know who the guy is that's going to be playing.

(43:01):
Army favored by eight and a half feels like a
lot here. I would have had a Yukon favored if
everybody was playing. But obviously there is a difference as
far as strength of schedule, et cetera. But Yukon typically
would get up for games like this. I just I

(43:22):
think it's too many points and maybe this is one
to bet live that might be your best route. Yukon
is terrible against the run, by the way. On defense,
it don't matter who plays there, Army is gonna be
able to run the football on them. Army number seventy
two in yards per rush, Yukon number ninety one rushing success,

(43:46):
Army number eighty three, Yukon number one thirty one. But
when you get into offensive line yards and stuff right,
Army number sixty three in offensive line yards Yukon number
one twenty nine, Army number seven and stuff rate allowed
Yukon number one thirty six and stuff rate, So Army's
gonna be able to run all over them. Can they
finish drives that's another question. Because they are number eighty

(44:09):
three in offensive red zone conversion percentage number fifty eight
an offensive red zone touchdown rate, Yukon is number ninety
three in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed. I want
to take Yukon here so bad because this number has
gotten outrageous. But one thing that we have learned from
bowlseason is if you're not motivated and your guys aren't there,

(44:33):
it can get ugly quickly. Yukon men never touched the football.
I mean, let's be honest here. I think Army shows up.
We didn't get it at the best number. I'll take
the favorite. I don't feel good about it. I wouldn't

(44:56):
bet this game if ever you, but if you, if
you feel like you've got to have action on I
would pick Army Army minus eight and a half on
this one. The Pop Tards Bowl, the most fun bowl
game in all of Bowls season in Orlando, Florida, and
we got BYU going up against Georgia Tech. This one Saturday,

(45:16):
December twenty seven, two thirty pm Central Time, God's time
zone of course, on ABC, and BYU is a four
and a half point favorite total of fifty five and
a half to fifty six and a half. So it's
sitting right in between the key number there of fifty six.
It's over the key number fifty five. This thing opened
at fifty six, opened as BYU a three point favorite,

(45:40):
and then you start hearing about Buster Faulkner taking the
OC position at Florida, the Chris Sorry, the co offensive
coordinator Chris Winkie probably going to take over play calling
duties for the bowl game. Hans King and the wide
receiver Eric Rivers both are expected to play. You could
have the right guard Keeling Rutledge and the running back

(46:01):
Jamal Haynes sit out for this one. Those are potential
opt outs. As far as injuries go, the defensive tackle
Stone he last played in Week thirteen, the edge rusher
Andre Fuller, he only played three snaps against Georgia, and
the defensive back Jay Gilmour. He's out for the season.
He last played in Week thirteen. As far as byu goes,

(46:23):
bear Bachmeyer was hobbled in the Big twelve championship game.
He's had weeks to be able to prepare for this one.
I would imagine that he plays. Is he fully healthy.
There's not been a lot of news on that. Who
knows As far as potential opt outs left tackle Jada,
the running back l J. Martin, wide receiver Chase Roberts,
defensive tackle Keanu Tanuvasa. That does not seem like the

(46:45):
kind of program that's gonna have a bunch of guys
opt out. You can almost bank on them the same
way that you can bank on service academies. As far
as Bowl games go, right BYU in Bowl games three
and one against the spread in bowls since twenty twenty,
they are plus ten and a half. At Georgia Tech
one and one plus four in bowls since twenty twenty.

(47:08):
Both teams I think are gonna show up here. I
think they're they're something gonna try. But good gracious, uh,
and yeah, there's a talent differential. Georgia Tech number thirty nine,
b YU number seventy two. But b YU is physical.
I mean, they are just there's just something about that bunch,

(47:29):
and Georgia Tech supposedly has better lines of scrimmage, but man,
you'd be hard pressed to find anybody that's gonna play
harder than those two. B YU number twenty three and
p BA margin Georgia Tech is number forty six. Georgia
Tch's offense is what made them a good team this year.
They are just bad on defense, and if LJ. Martin

(47:50):
and that bunch plays, it's gonna be hard for them
to get BYU off the field because b YU number
twenty six and PBA per rush Georgia Tech number seventy
four BYU's offense number thirty nine. In yards per rush
Georgia Tech's defense number ninety five, number thirty three. In
rushing success rate for BYU's offense, Georgia Tech number seventy BYU,

(48:12):
they don't scare me throwing the ball, but they are
better throwing it than Georgia Tech is at defending it
as far as points per scoring opportunity. Who can finish
drive is better BYU is number forty Georgia Tech number
fifty seven. Georgia Tech does have a huge special team's
advantage here at number six in special teams efficiency BYU

(48:32):
is number fifty seven. Georgia Tech on offense, I mean
they're gonna BYU's defense is good, like they are really
really good, and Georgia Tech likes to run the ball
BYU pretty good at stopping it number thirty one and
rushing success allowed number twenty five and rushing explosiveness allowed.

(48:53):
These two teams are pretty even. Georgia Tech number seventy
six and points per scoring opportunity, so they have not
been good at finish drives BYU's defense number thirty six.
You're looking at number thirty seven and thirty eight in
raw five factors rank. I think that I can count
on BYU showing up and playing really hard. Here Georgia

(49:17):
Tech gets a little questionable. I'm not totally certain. And
when you look at turnover margin BYU number twenty one
Georgia deck number one ten, I think you might even
count on BYU winning the turnover battle here. I will
go on and tell you I already bet this thing

(49:37):
when it was three, as soon as it came out.
It's at four and a half. I don't like the
fact that it's gotten into such a high number, but
I will take the favorite BYU minus four and a half. Here,
I think they cover and Georgia dech I think will
put up a fight. But you're looking up. My projected
stat spread has BYU minus nine power rating BYU minus

(49:59):
six four weeks by U minus thirteen. BYU beat everybody
except for Texas Tech. Georgia Tech not so much. I'll
take the Cougars at minus four and a half. Why
struggle doing everything yourself? On fiver you can hire professionals
for just about anything, marketing, editing, design and more. Save time.

(50:23):
Get it done right click the link in the description
to get started. And if you like the stats spreadsheets
that we're showing here on the show, of course, go
and check out buy me a Coffee dot Com Slash
Winning Cures. I got bonus content that goes up over there,
random stats. There is a matchup comparison tracker, so hypothetical
playoff matchups, et cetera. If you want to check those out,

(50:44):
or who would be favored over who, what the matchups
look like, etc. All these different stats that are good
for gamblers but also just curious minds. So go ahead
and check that out. Buy me a Coffee dot Com
Slash Winning Cures. The easy way to check it is,
of course, BETTINGCFB dot com. At our fifth game on Saturday,
December twenty seventh is a Snoop Dogg's Arizona Bowl presented

(51:07):
by Gin and Juice by Dre and Snoop. I think
I got all that stuff in there. Tucson, Arizona is
the location. It's on the CW at three thirty pm
Central Time, God's time zone, of course. Miami of Ohio
and Fresno State are playing here. Fresno State currently a
four and a half point favorite total of forty two
and a half on this one. And let's sort through

(51:29):
the transfer portal, the potential opt outs, all that kind
of mess. Let's end, of course, am using the Action
Networks tools. Stuck. He does a fantastic job with this thing,
keeping up with all the different guys that might be out,
guys that have been injured, etc. I mean, it gives
you a full just somebody should do this for the
full season. I'll tell you that starting wide receiver Cam Perry,
he led the nation and yards per catch. He is

(51:51):
in the portal for Miami of Ohio. They're starting defensive
end Adam Trick, that's their best defensive player. They're starting
cornerback Yarbrough, starting right tackle Drew terror And then you've
also got potential opt outs both safeties Blakie and Walters
he put on here. I'd guess they'll play, yeah, Miami
of Ohio, Chuck Martin. That's typically what they do. So

(52:13):
even if they're in the portal, they're still probably going
to play. Injuries here, you've got the linebacker Andrew who
missed the final two games, the running back Kenny Tracy
de Kwon Finn left the program. He's getting ready for
the NFL. Like guests, who knows wide receiver Cam Perry.
I mentioned to him being a in the transfer portal,

(52:33):
but he also got banged up at the end of
the MAC title game. They moved back to the veteran
quarterback Henry Hessen. In the MAC Title game, they were
with the freshman quarterback Tommy got Kowski. We'll see what
that means. I mean, who knows, So this is just
kind of a hodgepodge. Who knows what Miami of Ohio's

(52:55):
roster is gonna look like? Frozen of State. The safety
Jayden Daniels, sorry, Jayden Davis is in the portal. And
then they've got the potential opt outs cornerback Hamilton, defensive
lineman Corey Foreman. Those are potential opt outs. We'll see
Fresno State injuries of course, the safety Ryan Wilson, he
missed the finale. Defensive tackle OWUSU last played in Week ten,

(53:16):
and the linebacker Thunderbird fantastic name, last played in week seven,
so he's out. This is I mean, it should be
a fun matchup. It's got Fresno by four and a half.
My stat sheet has Fresno by three point six three
power rating has Fresno by one point one, and my
last four weeks I've only got Fresno by zero point

(53:39):
seven to eight, so it's an interesting, interesting spot. Fresno
was favored by three and a half. There has been
some action on the Bulldogs here. The Mac typically does
not do well in bowl games, although they have done
slightly better in recent years. You look at this and

(53:59):
Fresno offense is not good, number one eleven in PPA
per drive. They are number one to one in offensive
success rate. They really bad run in the football. Miami's
defense is good, number thirty one in PPA allowed per drive.
They are number forty five in defensive success rate. They're
really good against the run, not as good against the pass,
but still better than what Fresno is gonna throw at them.
Fresno is number one oh four and points per scoring opportunity,

(54:21):
Miami of Ohio's defense is number fifty five. Miami of
Ohio significant advantage on special teams. Miami of Ohio has
the talent edge in this matchup with his That's not
common for a Mountain West versus Mac game. But regardless,
Miami of Ohio on offense, the numbers are just kind

(54:43):
of all over the place, and Fresno's defense is really good.
They're not great against the run, and that's what Miami
is gonna want to do. They are number fifty two
in rushing explosiveness, Fresno is number fifty one on defense.
Miami is number forty in offensive line yards, Fresno is
number fifty nine. Yeah, it's it's kind of it's kind

(55:05):
of interesting. Miami is number eighty eight and points per
scoring opportunity, Fresno is number fifty six and points allowed
per scoring opportunity. Of course, scoring opportunity is when the
opponent gets a first down inside the forty yard line,
so that's when you get a scoring opportunity. So you
look at turnover margin, both of them are inside the
top forty. You look at penalties per game. You know,

(55:28):
Miami is number forty eight, Fresno is number eighty six.
I don't see a huge difference between these two. And
when you start looking at bowl games, Fresno two and
two against the spread in bowl since twenty twenty, Miami
of Ohio always shows up four and oh plus eleven

(55:48):
point three. Here. I think Miami can hang around in
this thing. I know that the quarterback situation is weird.
I know that Fresno has played better. I know that,
you know, good gracious the quarterback E. J. Warner, that's
the name I was looking for. I know that he
has been the quarterback here and whatnot. Like I just

(56:11):
feel like Miami can hang around and probably win the game.
So I think that the direction has moved the wrong
way here. I'm gonna go with the dog. Give me
Miami of Ohio plus four and a half here. Saturday,
December twenty seven to four to forty five pm Central time,
the isleta New Mexico Bowl, This one in Albuquerque, New Mexico,

(56:32):
North Texas and San Diego State. This one's on ESPN.
North Texas a three to three and a half point favorite,
depending on the book total of fifty five and a
half on this and who knows what this is going
to look like. San Diego State. I think we know
what we can expect from those guys. But North Texas,
you've got a bunch of injuries with the running back Hawkins,
linebacker Winter, the backup running back McGill he hadn't played

(56:55):
since Week eight, wide receiver Evans, and then you've got
the potential opt out of course, the coach is gone.
Eric Morris took the job at Oklahoma State. Neil Brown,
former Troy coach, former West Virginia coach. He is going
to be the new guy. But you know, I'm the quarterback.

(57:16):
Drew Musttermaker is going to be in the portal. He's
going to go somewhere big. It might be with Morris
overt Oklahoma State, who knows, but we know in the portal,
we've got Jaden Williams and we've got Drew Mustermaker bringing
back Caleb Hawkins could sit out. The wide receivers, Young
and Coleman could set out are they going to be

(57:37):
as productive? Maybe not? And how many good defenses did
North Texas actually play? And on top of that, how
many good passing attacks did San Diego State really play
this year? The one team that throws the ball a lot,
Hawaii absolutely rip them apart. So this is a weird

(58:01):
matchup to try and figure out San Diego State potential
opt outs here. They've got the edge Trey White, They've
got the linebacker Chambliss, the cornerback Johnson. Johnson is going
to be drafted. Chambers's and White both could follow the
defensive coordinator over to Nebraska. We'll see what that looks like. Yeah,

(58:24):
Rob Barretch, the defensive coordinator. Yes, he's going to Nebraska,
so he is not going to be here. The passing
game coordinator, Demetrius Summler is going to serve as the
interim DC for the bowl game. That's weird. I'm not
used to the passing game coordinator taking over as defensive coordinator.
But alas, if you're a good coach or good coach,
and it is what it is, transfer portal. You've got

(58:44):
the defensive end, beaty in the edge at Salvadi. Both
of those are backups. My guess is they'll probably play.
Who knows, I don't think we've You've got guys missing
on defense for San Diego State, got guys missing on
offense from North Texas. So the two strengths of these
two teams. North Texas is number five in the country

(59:06):
in PPA per drive on offense. San Diego State is
number three in the country in PPA allowed on defense.
Who knows what that's gonna mean. My projected stat spread
has North Texas by almost four points. My power rating
has North Texas minus four point eight, and over the
last four weeks I would have North Texas favored by
seventeen point five to eight. But if you don't have

(59:29):
mess to maker, if you don't have these wide receivers,
Morris is not calling the plays. What is this North
Texas team going to actually look like? San Diego State
massive advantage on special teams. They're number one versus North
Texas number sixty two. North Texas's defense number ninety eight
in points allowed per scoring opportunity, San Diego State's offense

(59:50):
number ninety seven. San Diego State can run the football
and they are going to run it a lot here.
They run it almost sixty three percent of the time. Well,
teams run the ball almost sixty percent of the time
on North Texas, and that's wild because typically North Texas
has pretty big leads. Now, they have played Army and

(01:00:13):
Navy this year and Rice, so three triple option teams.
That's obviously going to skew the numbers quite a bit.
But you know you're looking at a pace battle here, uh,
North Texas number nineteen in pace of play, San Diego
State number one twelve. On the other side, North Texas
is number two in points for scoring opportunity. San Diego

(01:00:34):
State's defense is number two in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
But again, defensive coordinator for the best defense on the
field is gone. The play caller and the head coach
and the potentially the quarterback and whatnot gone. On the
other side, I think, I think San Diego State is

(01:00:55):
going to be able to run the ball quite a
bit here, and I think they'll be able to keep
the ball away from North Texas. And this offense is
kind of predicated on reps, right, you got to be
real good, you gotta have a lot of chemistry. I mean,
we were talking about four wide receivers potentially gone for
North Texas and the quarterback may not play at that point,

(01:01:21):
I can't go with the favorite, even though I don't
know what to expect from San Diego State's defense. Both
of these teams outside the top one fifteen and current
strength of schedule, which is wild. But I'm not expecting
a whole lot from this ballgame. Like I mean, the

(01:01:43):
total is it was fifty six and a half is
down to fifty five and a half, and I would
expect an under to hit. I've got to project a
total of fifty on this. I think that San Diego
State is gonna hold onto the ball for a while.
I think they're gonna be able to run it, and
I would expect not a lot of points. And in
that situation, if I'm getting more than a field goal,

(01:02:04):
I'm going dog. So give me San Diego State plus
three and a half. I will go with the team
that is keeping their head coach. Saturday, December twenty seven
to six thirty pm Central Time the tax Slayer Gator Bowl.
This one is on ABC in Jacksonville, Florida. Virginia against Missouri.
Missouri is six and a half to seven point favorite

(01:02:25):
total forty eight and a half. On this one, let's
go through some of the transfer portal stuff. The starting
cornerback Prevard for Virginia, he's in the portal. Don't know
what that means as far as him sitting out Virginia
potential opt out. You got the running back Taylor, quarterback
Chandler Morris, defensive end Kmick, safeties Cleary and Neil. And

(01:02:47):
then you've got the injuries right the linebacker Robinson, he's
out for the year. Wide receiver Trell Harris, he left
the ACC title game with an injury. And then you
get the right guard Wigginton as well Missouri transfer Portal,
the wide receiver Josh Manning. He had three hundred and
eighteen yards two touchdowns. And then you've got a slew
of potential opt outs. Left tackle Green, right tackle Troust,

(01:03:10):
center Tollison, the defensive ends Young and Wilson, the second
Kevin Coleman, the wide receiver, tight end Bretton Norfleet, linebacker
Josiah Trotter, defensive tackle Chris McLellan, the quarterback Bo Prebula,
and the safety Jailing Catalan. I would not expect a
ton of them to opt out. You look at Missouri's record,

(01:03:32):
they are eight and four, probably like to get to
a ninth win. Who knows, but I don't think motivation
is going to be an issue for either one of
these teams. My projected stat spread has Missouri minus eight
point eight two, My power rating has Missouri minus six.
My last four weeks has Missouri minus six point eight two.

(01:03:53):
And some of these numbers are Missouri is number eighteen
in PBA margin, And that's even at the quarterback Perbulah
missing a couple of games, three games whatever it was
in the middle of the year, and then he came
back and looked fantastic against Arkansas. They did a fantastic
job in that finale. Virginia, I mean, what do you

(01:04:16):
do when you get your heart ripped out like that?
I mean, they really should be in the playoff right now,
and you lose the ACC championship game to a seven
and five duke team that probably shouldn't have been there.
I hate to use those kind of words, but I
mean you get the point. So looking at this, Missouri

(01:04:38):
is the better overall team. Virginia better on special teams,
but as far as overall talent rank, Missouri is a
top twenty unit Virginia number sixty six. But Virginia did
a good job of getting a lot of older players
in the portal that really work together, and they played
a significantly easier schedule in Missouri. Virginia number seventy nine.

(01:04:59):
Current strength of schedule Missouri number twenty six. Missouri, on offense,
can run the football, and Virginia has been good at
stopping the run, but not great number forty six and
rushing success allowed number forty five and ppa allowed per rush.
They are better against the pass, I think, but again,

(01:05:22):
who have you played that can really take advantage of you?
Points per scoring opportunity Missouri number forty two, and finishing
drives at Virginia number twenty five and points allowed per
scoring opportunity, So you know, Virginia pretty good at keeping
teams out of the end zone. But eh, I don't

(01:05:44):
feel great about it because I know what their competition
looked like and Duke Duke didn't seem to have trouble scoring.
So Missouri's defense probably the best unit on the field,
number ten in PPA allowed per drive, Virginia's offense number
fifty three, And then of course course we don't know
exactly what the offense is going to look like for Virginia,
but even still, Missouri really good against the past. Number

(01:06:06):
eight in PPA allowed per pass, Virginia is number seventy six.
Virginia better at running the football than they are throwing it,
but they are number forty in yards per rush, Missouri's
number seventeen. There are number twenty seven in PPA per rush.
Missouri's defense is number forty three there, but Missouri number
nineteen and rushing success allowed number nineteen and rushing explosiveness allowed.

(01:06:30):
Virginia is number sixty one and number eighty in those
two metrics. So I wouldn't expect a ton. Virginia is
number seventy in points per scoring opportunity. Missouri's defense number
sixty five in points allowed per scoring opportunity. So I
mean it makes sense the number forty one a defensive
rid zone touchdown rate allowed. Yeah, I I feel like

(01:06:52):
Virginia's number ninety nine an offensive rid zone touchdown rate.
You look at five factors, these teams are twenty seven
to twenty eighth. But when you actor in the talent,
of course, Missouri jumps up to number fourteen, Virginia number
forty eight. In bowl games, Virginia has not been to
a bowl game since twenty twenty. Missouri has, and they

(01:07:14):
are three and one against the spread in those bowl
games plus three point nine, so they play well above
average in those. I'm going with the favorite. The best
number I can get right now is a seven, or sorry,
a six and a half. I think Missouri shows up
in a big way here. All of this could change,

(01:07:34):
because we were talking about this on December sixteenth. Now,
if Eli Trinquitts were to get the Michigan job something
along those lines, maybe I would change my tune. But
as it sits currently, so long as even if there's
a few opt outs and whatnot, I still think Missouri
is a significantly better team than Virginia. I'm gonna take

(01:07:57):
the favorite. Give me the Tigers minus six and a half.
The Kenders Texas Bowl Saturday, December twenty seventh, eight to
fifteen pm Central Time on ESPN. LSU and Houston playing
in Houston, Texas. That's right, this one at Energy Stadium'm
not at the Houston their official field, which I forget

(01:08:17):
the name of, shame on me. Houston is a two
and a half three point favorite total forty one and
a half on this and kind of shocked at this,
honestly that Houston would be favored here, but the number
has come down. Houston was a three and a half
point favorite at open and there are you know, potential

(01:08:44):
opt outs and whatnot. There's some injuries and whatnot for LSU,
but this is still a significantly more talented roster than
what Houston is bringing to the to the fight. LSU
number five and overall team talent per on three, Houston
is number fifty four LSU better at special teams number sixty,
Houston number ninety six. Houston's offense number one oh eight
so even with Connor Wigman there, they've not been great.

(01:09:07):
Number one twenty three in passing success rate, but there
are number forty five in PPA for pass. Part of
that has to do with them being explosive in the
passing game, number sixty three in passing explosiveness. What LSU
is number fifty one. LSU's defense is good and Blake
Baker is hanging around. He's still gonna be there, so
who knows what that means? LSU the transfer portal, their

(01:09:29):
defensive tackle, Amad bro Yeah, that's b r e a
Ux two hundred seventy four snaps this year. He is
in the portal, has not said that he's not playing,
but who knows. LSU opt outs, the cornerback Delaney, a
potential first round pick, He has said he is not
gonna play. Potential opt outs safety Hall Seed, defensive end Peyton,

(01:09:51):
defensive Endieburn left or sorry, linebacker Harold Perkins, and then
the wide receivers Thomas and Brown potentially he had some injuries.
Of course, the quarterback Garrett ness Meyer, he hadn't played
since Week eleven. He is not going to play here
with Weeks is not going to play here. That's the linebacker,
the center Braylan Moore, he missed the finale, but he's

(01:10:12):
got a chance to play, per the interim coach Frank Wilson.
Then you got the wide receivers Aaron Anderson and wide
receiver Nick Anderson. Both of them last played in week
eleven and twelve. You know, Aaron Anderson status is up
in the air regardless, Michael van Buren is going to
be the starter on this for Houston. They're starting center
Demetrius Hunter. He left the program on December eighth. He's

(01:10:33):
no longer on the roster. They do have some potential
opt outs, not nearly as many as LSU, but the
running back Connors, defensive end or sorry, tight end Tanner
Cooziall and the defensive end walls Connor Wigman is going
to be back, so he should play here. Khalil Lafo like, nope,
that ain't it that Houston fans tell me how to

(01:10:55):
pronounce this guy's name, le Fay you something? He missed
the finale. And then the wide receiver Stephan Johnson. He
last played in Week seven, so he's not gonna play here,
I would imagine. So looking at this, I've already talked
to some of the numbers. LSU's offense is atrocious at
running the football. Houston is pretty good on defense number

(01:11:15):
thirty six and PPA allowed for drive. But you're talking
about a huge strength of schedule difference here. I mean,
it's a chasm between these two. LSU number ten in
current strength of schedule, Houston number seventy one, and LSU
tends to get up for these games. These guys want
to play for Frank Wilson, it appears, at least that's

(01:11:36):
what it sounds like. But LSU really bad on offense,
just terrible passing it. They throw the ball almost fifty
six percent of the time, but number seventy six and
QBR number seventy three and passing success rate. But they
are number one thirty in passing explosiveness number ninety eight
and PBA per pass number one hundred yards per pass attempt.
Houston way better at all of those metrics than LSU is,

(01:12:00):
and even worse than the passing game. The running game
for LSU number one twenty and PPA per rush number
one fifteen, in yards per rush number one eighteen, and
rushing success Houston's defense number thirty nine, number thirty nine
and number one oh three in those I don't expect
a lot of offense here. We got a total of
it opened at forty one and a half. It is

(01:12:20):
still at forty one and a half, so it's below
the key of forty two. I'd still probably take an
under here. When you look at pace of play, Houston's
number seventy one, LSU's number one eleven. I think you're
gonna get some interesting stuff out of these two teams.

(01:12:41):
LSU is just so much more talented. And if Frank
Wilson is not having to play against Oklahoma and Texas
A and M and Alabama and I mean you name
it right, they should be okay. I don't necessarily trust Houston.

(01:13:02):
I like Willie Fritz, but this is just one of
those where it's the Jimmies and Joe's I'm gonna go
with the dog. I can get a three here, I
will take LSU plus three in this matchup. Stop guessing
and start winning. Stochastic provides advanced data and strategies for
DFS players and betters built my pros who know how

(01:13:25):
to find edges. Click the link in the description and
sign up today if you've not already subscribe, to the
podcast at wherever you get your podcast. I've swapped over hosts.
I'm doing something a little bit different. We're going with
Spreaker now. But yeah, I do some audio only stuff.
I talk about the sport more over there. Obviously here

(01:13:45):
on the YouTube channel, it is all picks, really, I
mean I've made four hundred and thirty or forty something picks,
whatever it is. But that's what I do. On the
YouTube channel. I pick games. I give you my analysis
on the matchups. It's very predictive over here. We talk

(01:14:06):
about the sport as a whole, much more general discussion
over on the audio pod. So make sure you are
subscribed over there and leave a nice five star review
if you would so kindly. And of course, if you're
watching this video instead of listening to the audio, do
me a favor and in subscribe to the channel, like
the video and jump in the comments. Monday, December twenty

(01:14:29):
ninth the JLab Birmingham Bowl, and this one is at
one pm Central Time on ESPN Georgia, Southern and app State. Now,
this is what I'm talking about. If you got a
shot to make a matchup that is a rivalry game,
why not? Why not? Go ahead and do that thing.
App State probably shouldn't be in a bowl game. They're

(01:14:51):
five and seven, but you had so many teams opt
out of bowls and whatnot this year that why not
let's make the match up. Let's do it to it
this time instead of it being in Boone, North Carolina. Well,
let's bring it down to Birmingham. We're gonna have fun
with this thing. It's on a Monday, in the middle
of the day. Sick them. Let's get after it. Let's

(01:15:11):
get after it. Okay. A lot of injuries for Georgia Southern.
The running back O j Arnold. He missed the finale.
The wide receiver Dalan Cobb missed the finale. The defensive
tackle Devin Low missed the finale. App State has a
bunch of guys in the portal. AJ Swan, the quarterback
lost his job late in the year. The quarterback JJ Cole.
He took the starting job late in the year, but

(01:15:31):
he's gonna be in the portal as well. The safety
DJ Burks, wide receiver Davion Dozer, cornerback Elijah mcantos, linebacker
Brayshawn little John, the edge Thomas Davis, and the offensive
tackle Danell Nicks app State. If Cole and Swan don't
suit up here, which they might, they've only got two
quarterbacks with experience on the roster. That's freshman Noah Gillen

(01:15:55):
and the senior Billy Wiles, who used to be at
Clemson and Southern Miss. App State does have some injuries.
The wide receiver Barns he didn't play in the last
two games. The right guard Trent Ramsey has not played
since Week eight. The tight end Cummings hasn't played since
Week nine in a safety highs that he missed the
last two games. Georgia Southern won the initial matchup twenty

(01:16:16):
five to twenty three. That was on the road. And
yet even with Georgia Southern favored here, which they're favored
by four and a half, a total of fifty nine
and a half on this that's up from the three
and a half that I had, my projected stats spread
actually has Appstate favored. My power rating has Georgia Southern
by two. My last four weeks has Georgia Southern minus

(01:16:36):
eleven point three to one. But again, with these bowl games,
you don't know exactly who's gonna suit up, who's gonna
play who knows at this point. Georgia Southern not very
good at running the football, so even with the running
back out, it is what it is. But they can
throw it an APP State can't defend the pass at all.

(01:16:58):
Georgia Southern number twenty four in passing six access rate
APP State number one fifteen. I should tell you basically
all you need to know there, So Georgia Southern non
offense number forty two in points for scoring opportunity Appstate's
defense number one thirteen. On the other side, APP State,
in some games they were able to put up a
bunch of points. It's amazing to me that they were

(01:17:19):
not able to put up more than twenty three at
home on this Georgia Southern defense. Georgia Southern cannot stop
the run, but Appstate is not good at running it.
APP State number ninety eight and PPA per rush Georgia
Southern number one thirty four. You don't have a big
talent discrepancy between these two, I mean nothing crazy Appstates
better on special teams. As far as pace of play,

(01:17:42):
they're both inside the top forty. APP States number ten.
Georgia Southern number thirty six. The best unit on the
field is going to be the Georgia Southern offense. The
Eagles are number fifty four in offensive success rate. App
State is number ninety four. I don't see whole lot
changing between the first game that these two played and

(01:18:04):
this one. So I'll go ahead and tell you Georgia
Southern better in turnover margin, better in penalties per game
number thirty seven, and penalties per game to number ninety six,
number forty seven, and turnover margin to seventy one. App
State I think has motivation because they lost the earlier
matchup and they weren't supposed to be in a bowl game,

(01:18:25):
but they're five and seven and they got there anyway,
and you've got a rivalry game here. I just think
Georgia Southern is better, and they've played better down the stretch.
That's the way I'll take it. So the best number
I can get is four and a half. Give me
Georgia Southern minus four and a half. Tuesday, December thirtieth,

(01:18:48):
the Radiance Technology's Independence Bowl down in Shreveport. This one's
at one pm Central time on ESPN. Coastal Carolina and
Louisiana Tech and Louisiana Tech currently favored by eight and
a half. That's up from the seven and a half
that they were favored to start this thing. Total opened
at fifty one and a half. It's down to fifty
and a half. Not opened. It was at fifty one

(01:19:10):
and a half when I made the sheets. That was
the day after the balls were announced, so that total
has come down a little bit. The Shots have fired
their head coach, Tim Beck, so the defense coordinator Jeremia
Johnson's going to serve as the interim head coach for
the bowl game. Let's look at Coastal Carolina thus far
in the transfer portal. Their left tackle del grind he's

(01:19:32):
in the portal. That doesn't mean he's not going to play.
As far as injuries go. The quarterback Smarty Caller missed
the final two games with the knee injury. The left
tackle Nick del Grande missed two final games. If he
doesn't play, it's gonna be because he's injured, not because
of being in the portal. I would imagine the Quarterbackmu Young,
the linebacker Bruce, the safety Dante Thomas. Tad Hudson will

(01:19:54):
be the quarterback if Calier can't go in this one.
Louisiana Tech in the portal they've got the quarterback Evan Bullock,
both safeties Richard and Fields. The linebacker Mason Stucky on
Action Network said he would expect Trey kukook I. Hope
said they're right to start at the quarterback in the bowl.

(01:20:15):
He started the final two games of the season. Blake Baker,
the quarterback, got hurt in week eleven. He's out for
the year. The linebacker Fields he's been out since Week five,
and the right tackle Banister has been out since week seven.
So they have already learned to play without some of
these guys, right. The quarterback being out for Louisiana Tack

(01:20:39):
kind of changes some things. But their offense wasn't great anyway.
Coastal is number one twenty six in PPA margin. So
how they made a bowl game. I'm not one hundred
percent sure they got to six and six, but obviously
they weren't happy with it because by god, they've fired
their coach. The defensive line is not looking great for
Louisiana Tack number one thirty five in position group. But yeah,

(01:21:05):
I mean, you've got a massive talent difference between these two.
Number one twenty two in overall talent rank for Louisiana
Tech number seventy five for Coastal, and you gotta wonder
about motivation here, right, this thing is seven and a half.
It's up to eight and a half. I've got Louisiana
Tech favored by nine point eight four. My power rating
has them by six. My last four weeks has Louisianattack

(01:21:26):
by twelve. But again without your quarterback, without some of
these very important pieces, what exactly does that mean? Louisiana
Tech has been fantastic on defense and Coastal can't run
offense on anybody. Coastal is number sixty one points for
scoring opportunity. Louisiana's defense is number seventeen. I still believe

(01:21:50):
that Louisiana Tech is not going to allow a lot
of points. And when you start looking at turnover margin,
Coastal is number one twelve and giveaways per game, Louisiana
Tech is number thirteen in takeaways. So they are some ballhawks.
I think they're gonna have better strength, better strength schedule,
what am I talking about? They're gonna have a better
field position. They I think will get some short fields.

(01:22:10):
So even if the offense is not very good, they're
still gonna be able to run it on Coastal. Interesting
spot here for sure. I don't know what the motivation
is for Coastal Carolina, and I mean they gotta go
all the way down to Louisiana, where Louisiana Tech should
have at least somewhat of a home contingency. Contingency I

(01:22:31):
don't know if that's the right word, but either way,
I think Louisiana Tech's a better football team, even if
the quarterback isn't playing, et cetera. Right, even with some
of these guys that could be out, I still think
they're gonna be better than what Coastal puts on the field.
And Louisiana Tech at home. They are zero to two

(01:22:52):
in bowl games since twenty twenty, so they would like
to get a bowl win here. And Coastal is one
in four against the spread in bowl games minus six
point four. So I'm I'm going to expect Louisiana Tech
to do good things. They're seven and five on the season,
probably want to get to that eighth win, and I

(01:23:13):
think that the numbers moving in the right direction here.
Louisiana Tach has played better as of late. Coastal. I
don't know what the motivation is for him. So give
me Louisiana Tech minus eight and a half in Shrevepoort
the Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl. That's right, this one
at four thirty pm Central Time in Nashville on ESPN.

(01:23:34):
You got the Tennessee volunteers and the Illinois fighting a line.
Tennessee is favored by two and a half to three
with a total of sixty and a half on this
the number has come down a little bit from Tennessee
was favored by five and a half. The total of
sixty one and a half has come down to sixty
and a half. Interesting to say the least. Tennessee fired

(01:23:57):
their defensive coordinator Ten Banks. They've brought in Jim Knowles.
He's not going to be coaching in this This is interesting.
William Inge, who is the linebacker's coach, He's going to
serve as the interim DC for this game. Yeah. I
Illinois head coach Brett Bielaman, he believes six to ten

(01:24:17):
players are going to enter the portal after the bowl game,
but they are going to be allowed to play. Only
one of those is a starter, though you do have
potential opt outs here. You got the safety Xavier Scott,
wide receiver Hank Beaty, tight end Tanner Arkin, Luke Outmeyer
is going to play in the bowl game. There are
a couple of opt outs already, linebacker Gabe Jacos and
the offensive lineman JC Davis, those have already opted out.

(01:24:40):
And then of course you've got some injuries. The linebacker
Jojo Hayden missed the finale, and the safety Matthew Bailey
had surgery. He's not going to play for Tennessee. You've
got a little bit of a longer list. Blue Carter's
already in the portal. He wasn't playing much anyway. You
do have a couple of opt outs for Tennessee, the
wide receiver Chris Brasel the second he's declared for the draft,
and the linebacker are On Carter has declared for the draft.

(01:25:03):
You do have potential opt outs here with the left
tackle Lance Herd, defensive end Joseph's cornerback Colton Hood, safety
McMurray in the tight end Kitzelman, who is also dealing
with an injury. Probably not gonna play, but those are
potential guys as far as injuries already mentioned the tight end,
but the quarnerback Jermad McCoy he's been out all year,

(01:25:23):
the cornerback Ricky Gibson the third out all year, and
then of course the edge rusher Jordan Ross. He missed
the finale. But I don't think that we were worried
about Tennessee's defense anyway, because it is what it is,
number sixty four and PPA allowed, number one oh four
in defensive success rate allowed. That was never going to
be a thing, and Illinois has not been good on

(01:25:44):
defense either. So it's a good offense against a good
offense and a bad defense against a bad defense. I mean,
that's what you're looking at. So the fact that the
total has come down is a little surprising. But you know,
with the wide receiver for Tennessee being out Brazil or
Brazil or whatever you want to call it, and that's

(01:26:05):
no offense. I just don't remember exactly how you pronounce
the name. I've been terrible at that this year. I
don't know if you guys are finding it harder to
pronounce some of these names, but man I used to
I used to really try and call me lazy. It
just they're going from team to team. I don't know
who's gonna be where every it's just it's it's a pandemic.

(01:26:26):
That's what we'll call it, all right. So my projected
stat spread has Tennessee by three point eight five. My
power rating has Tennessee by three point one. The last
four weeks, I would have Illinois favored by one point.
Tennessee got housed at home by Vanderbilt at the end
of the year. This ain't the same kind of offense.
Tennessee knows about this offense, right, Illinois also knows what

(01:26:50):
to expect from this Tennessee offense. Neither team I think
is going to be able to stop the other one
really all that much. And if anyone was going to
be able too, I would trust Tennessee because they got
a more talented roster. And I know the talent isn't everything.
I know how that works. I know this, However, I
just can't unmarry myself from the idea that if you

(01:27:13):
got better football players, you're probably gonna win the game.
Just is what it is. Illinois is one and one
against the spread in bowl games since twenty twenty. Tennessee
is two and two against the spread in bowl games
since twenty twenty. Not much you can go on as
far as trends are concerned there Beilama in company did

(01:27:33):
play pretty well last year against South Carolina in the
bowl game. You were dealing with a completely different beast here,
you know, Josh Heipel. I mean, he's gonna draw up
some crazy stuff. But Barry Lundy might too. So who knows.
Tennessee on offense number twelve and points per scoring opportunity,
Illinois defense is number one twenty one. Tennessee's gonna be

(01:27:56):
able to score. On the other side, Illinois number twenty
eight in points for scoring opportunity. Tennessee's defense number one twelve.
And yet Tennessee's defense better than what Illinois is gonna
put out there, and their offense is better than Illinois offense.
So I know that a lot of people want to

(01:28:16):
buy into the Illinois stuff. I mean, this team, both
teams are eight and four and Illinois. Let's see, Illinois
played a tougher shot of the schedule. Number twenty three,
Tennessee number thirty three. Tennessee has not been a team
with a winning record all year. I think that changes here.
I think Tennessee wins the ball game. I got a
sec love here, I really do. It's kind of surprising.

(01:28:43):
I think Tennessee's better. How's that? So? Tennessee minus two
and a half is the direction I'm going in this one,
especially the fact I mean they're going to be in Nashville.
It's gonna be a mostly orange crowd. Well it'll be
orange anyway, but it's gonna be big, you know, go Valls,
go big Orange, whatever it is. And I think that
I trust Hypel to be able to put up points

(01:29:05):
a lot more than I trust Illinois. Give me the
Vaults minus two and a half. It has dropped low
enough where I feel comfortable with it, But I will
take Tennessee to win and cover the Valero Alamo Bowl.
This is the last bowl that we're going to talk
about on today's show, and this is a long win.
My apologies to you guys for that, but hey, we

(01:29:26):
got a lot of bowl games to discuss for this week.
USC and TCU. This one Tuesday, December thirtieth, eight pm
Central Time on ESPN, so much more fitting for the
team from the Pacific time zone. USC favored by five
and a half to six total of fifty nine and
a half on this USC t USC's reward for going

(01:29:48):
nine to three and maybe one game out of the
playoffs is to go down to San Antonio, down to
Texas to play against TCU. Is what it is. The
offensive coordinator for TCU, Kendle Brows, he has left. He
has gone to South Carolina. There's a chance that Josh Hoover,
the quarterback, follows him there. We haven't heard anything about

(01:30:10):
that as of yet, but Hoover's brother does play baseball.
I believe for the game Cocks, Sunny Dyke's has come
out and said that he expects everybody to play. They
do have some potential opt outs. I mentioned Hoover, the quarterback,
tight end DJ Rodgers, wide receiver Eric McAllister. The safety
is at Bud Clark and Jamel Johnson, defensive end Paul

(01:30:30):
o'ye Wally, and then the linebacker Caleb alarums or. There
are injuries of course, Bud Clark he missed the final
two games. The safety Kylin Jackson, he missed the finale.
The running back of Rian Barnes, he hadn't played since
week eleven. We'll see what happens there. USC The list
is longer and much more up in the air. Right
The cornerback Braylan Conley is in the transfer portal. USC

(01:30:53):
does have a couple of opt outs or three opt outs.
Jacoby Lane, the wide receivers out, the safety Kamari Ramsey,
he's not gonna play, and then the tight end Lake
McRee he's not going to play either. There are more
potential opt outs. I would guess that Makai Lemon, the
wide receiver, I would guess that he is not going
to play. Here, the quarterback Jade Mayeva, he has already

(01:31:14):
re signed with the USC and he will play. The
edge Anthony Lucas, linebacker Eric Gentry, defensive jackal Keishawn Silver,
cornerback DJ Harvey, and the safety Bishop Fitzgerald, who is
also dealing with an injury. As far as other injuries
are concerned, left tackle Elijah Page, with the wide receiver
Wayman Jordan, he hadn't played since Week seven, and of

(01:31:35):
course the right guard Elani Noah. He missed the finale.
So you got a lot of different faces when it
comes to this. If you didn't have any faces that
were missing or whatever, my projected stats spread would be
USC minus seven point seven to one. The power rating
has USC by almost eight points, and then my last

(01:31:55):
four weeks would have USC minus fourteen and a half.
TCU went eight and four this year, which is pretty
good record. As far as bowl games are concerned. Both
of these teams are eight and one two to one
against the spread, TCU minus three and USC is plus eight.
As far as that is concerned against the number in

(01:32:16):
bowl games, USC more talent, but it's not as lopsided
as you would think. TCU number twenty six, USC number sixteen,
and overall talent rank per on three. Both teams outside
the top ninety in special teams efficiency. That's not great.
USC number seven in offensive success rate TCUs defense number

(01:32:37):
fifty eight. TCU's offense number forty eight in offensive success rate,
USC is number one seventeen in defensive success rate allowed.
That ain't great by any stretch. USC though, as far
as PPA allowed per drive their number sixty two. On defense,
TCU is number sixty seven, So if you go by

(01:32:58):
predicted points added, US actually a better defense when TCU
has the ball number thirty nine in points per scoring opportunity,
US is number forty one. The difference is that USC
is number one twenty eight in scoring opportunities allowed per game.
And if you haven't kept up that is when the
opponent gets the first down inside the forty yard line,
that is considered a scoring opportunity. So TCU is number

(01:33:23):
fifty four in scoring opportunities per game. So I think
they're going to be able to move the football here.
They'll be able to throw it on USC's defense. USC
is number seventy four in passing success allowed, number eighty
one in QBR allowed. TCU is number twenty five and
number thirty eight in those metrics. So Josh Hoover, if
he plays, should be able to throw the football on USC.

(01:33:44):
On the other side, USC will also be able to
throw the football on TCU. TCU number ninety two and
PBA allowed per pass USC's offense is number five, USC
number eight in points for scoring opportunity TCU's defense number
fifty three, But TCU allows a lot of scoring opportunities
per game. I this thing is under a touchdown and

(01:34:07):
I want to take USC, but I also don't know
exactly how motivated they're going to be to be in
this game. I mean, you've heard the list of opt
outs and potential opt outs. If they don't have Jacobe Lane,
if they don't have the if they don't have Mikaia Lemon.
There's still gonna be guys for Jad and Maiavid to
throw to TCU. I do think is gonna be able
to throw the football quite a bit. But we still

(01:34:30):
don't know anything about Josh Hoover and Eric McAllister and whatnot. Again,
Sonny Dyke said he expects everybody to play. This is
kind of a big spot for both of these and
it's going to be setting the tone going into a
big twenty twenty six season for both teams. And while
my numbers all say USC, I kind of think that

(01:34:52):
I would go with TCU, especially in San Antonio. So
I have seen USC just trot out random guys and
put on a clinic in some of these Bowl games.
I mean, they did it to Louisville just a couple
of years ago, so I or maybe that was last year. No,

(01:35:16):
it was two years ago, two years ago. Let's go
with the numbers. Why not? Why not? I mean we
I should. I feel like I should go with TCU
being in Texas, but USC of more difficult strength schedule,
the quarterback is playing foreshore, and when it comes to

(01:35:39):
head coaches, I trust Lincoln Riley more than I trust
Sunny Dike's call it a hunch, but if this thing's
under a touchdown, I can get USC minus five and
a half. I'll go with the favorite. Give me the
Trojans minus five and a half. Here, alright, we had
sixteen games to discuss, sixteen Bowl games to discuss for

(01:36:03):
this week December twenty fourth through December thirtieth. Let's recap it.
Let's see Houston, Houston, excuse me, Hawaii plus two and
a half, Central Michigan plus ten and a half, Minnesota
minus two and a half, UTSA minus eight and a half,
East Carolina plus seven and a half, Clemson minus three
and a half, Army minus eight and a half, BYU
minus four and a half, Miami plus four and a half,

(01:36:24):
San Diego State plus three and a half, Missouri minus
six and a half, LSU plus three, Georgia Southern minus
four and a half, Louisiana Tech minus eight and a half,
Tennessee minus two and a half, and USC minus five
and a half. That is a lot of favorites. What
could possibly go wrong? Right? Just ridiculous Bowl games these days,

(01:36:46):
much better for live betters. Just the way it goes,
you can tell pretty early which team wants to be there.
And which one doesn't. And once you figure that out,
once you see where the motivation lies. That's all she wrote.
Very rarely does it go the opposite direction in some
of these games. All right, of course, make sure you're

(01:37:07):
subscribed to the audio podcast if you would so kindly,
leave a nice five star review over there, whatever you
were listening to. We've moved over to a new host.
We're gonna try and take this more seriously as we
move into the off season. To go ahead and subscribe
over there, if you would so kindly. This is a
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can do that. Buy me a coffee dot com slash

(01:37:28):
winning Cures. There's a link in the description for that,
or you can just go to bettingcfb dot com. It's
five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year, and
I give you bonus content. That's the way it works.
I would certainly appreciate your support over there. There's a
lot of you that have already signed up, and I
appreciate you. Thank you very much for helping out of

(01:37:49):
the show, for doing this thing, because I got to
spend a lot of time with it, a lot of time.
That's the way it goes. If you haven't already subscribed
to the channel, of course, like the video and jump
in the comment. Let me know your picks on these
if there's anything that I have missed, let me know
once you hear something, if you hear rumors, etc. I
would love to hear that as well. I just I
want to get some advanced notice on some of these

(01:38:10):
games as early as we can. Any kind of information
would be welcome. So yes, jump in the comments and
share the show, tell your friends about it, all that
good stuff. We do this every year. I've been doing this,
Winning Cures Everything has been around since twenty sixteen. The
podcast version, the YouTube started in twenty eighteen. We've been
at this for a while. This year I went fully independent,

(01:38:35):
had a blast, had an absolute blast. We will continue
on through the National Championship game, and then we're gonna
start talking about the sport in general. College football is
what we do. God I love this sport, all right.
With that said, you guys are fantastic. Take care of yourself,
take care of each other. God bless college football and
hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for

(01:38:58):
listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review, or comment.
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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}16 Bowl Game Picks Dec 24-30 | Full Predictions & Analysis