Army vs Navy Picks, Early Bowl & CFP First Round Predictions

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
On today's show, we're going over Army Navy, We're going
over a few bowl games, and we got to hit
the CFP first round.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey, what's up y'all?

Speaker 3 (00:09):
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(01:00):
two turkey legs under Christmassmate, super easy.

Speaker 4 (01:06):
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Speaker 1 (01:11):
Welcome in winning cures everything.

Speaker 6 (01:13):
It's a college football podcast.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCV on all
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like the video comment, jump in.

Speaker 6 (01:27):
With your picks, all that good stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:28):
But also subscribe to the podcast if you haven't done that.
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You don't want to miss out, make sure and subscribe
to the Winning Cures Everything podcast. All right, we got

(01:50):
quite a bit to discuss today. We're going over some games.
We got a lot of bowl games that we are
going to be hitting. No, we are not opting out,
unlike some of the other college football teams that have
decided to do so. If there is football, we're gonna
be discussing it. So let's not waste a bunch of time.

Speaker 6 (02:05):
Let's get into.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Game number one, two pm Central Time, God's time zone,
of course, on CBS. It's Army and Navy, this one
from Baltimore, Maryland. Navy a six and a half point
home favorite, home favorite total of thirty eight and a
half on this and let's go ahead and take a look,
shall we. Navy is two and four against the spread

(02:30):
at home minus one point eight, and Army five and
one against the spread on the road this year plus
four point eight. Navy is one and five against the
spread so far as a favorite, and this number has
gotten known up there. Six and a half, of course,
is the number. My projected stat spread has it by seven.

(02:50):
My power rating has Navy minus four. My last four
weeks actually has Army favored by a little over a touchdown,
kind of surprising. My projective first half spread is right
there along with it. Navy strength of record. I mean,
they're nine to two. It makes perfect sense. Army, of course,
they are six and five thus far on the year,

(03:13):
Navy three and seven against the spread overall, Army five
and six. The one I believe is for an FCS opponent,
or it could just mean a tie, but regardless, we
don't count ties on here. So Navy three and seven
against the spread.

Speaker 6 (03:27):
Let's start off with Navy on offense.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
They run the ball, but also they're pretty good at
throwing it, and Army's defense sucks number one oh three
in PPA allowed per drive. They are number one twenty
one in defensive success rate. They are number one twenty
two against the pass, number ninety seven against the rush,
so Navy should be able to move the football on
these guys. On the other side, it's kind of the

(03:51):
same thing. Navy is number one twenty seven in PPA
allowed per drive. They are number eighty one in defensive
success rate, number one oh four against the past, they're number
sixty against the rush.

Speaker 6 (04:00):
Issue when you get into a.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Game like this is these two teams run incredibly similar styles.

Speaker 6 (04:07):
The talent profile.

Speaker 1 (04:09):
Is basically the exact same thing. I mean, you get
what you get. Last year it was thirty one to thirteen.
I believe I didn't write it down, but Navy put
a thumping on him pretty good last year. This year,
do we see the exact same thing. Navy number thirty
five in five Factors rank, Army number eighty six.

Speaker 6 (04:35):
I worry about that.

Speaker 1 (04:37):
Because I do think that Army, while not great, they're
certainly better in turnover margin number thirty five. They're number
one in penalties per game, Navy number eighty three in
pendlies per game. You don't typically see that from a
service academy. They are number sixty seven in turnover margin,
and the biggest problem for them is they cannot generate
turnovers number ninety three and takeaways per game. They are

(04:59):
really bad at aginst the pass. They're okay against the run,
number sixty six in yards allowed per rush, and Army's
offense while they do run at eighty five percent of
the time, they're only number eighty three in rushing success rate,
number one twenty one in rushing explosive or one thirty
one excuse me, in rushing explosiveness. But there are number
seven in stuff rate, number sixty three in offensive lineyards.

(05:21):
So the offense not nearly as good as what Navy
brings to the table with quarterback Blake Horvath number.

Speaker 6 (05:28):
Fourteen and PPA per pass.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
Now granted they only throw the ball less than twenty
three percent of the time, but Navy number three in
PPA per rush, number two in yards per rush, number
three in rushing success rate, number three in offensive.

Speaker 6 (05:43):
Line yards, et cetera.

Speaker 1 (05:45):
Army not fully equipped to be able to deal with
something like this. Navy is number thirty four in points
per scoring opportunity, Army's defense number seventy four. On the
other side, Army is number nine in points for scoring
opportunity and Navy's defense is number one twenty, but Army
doesn't exactly get down there very often. Army is not

(06:07):
great at sustaining drives, I'll say, and on top of that,
they're not really good at finishing drives. Navy, on the
other hand, pretty good at that. So if he comes
down to who do I think has the more clutched gene,
I think it's Navy, and I think the number is

(06:27):
kind of right dead on. Last year we saw this
Navy team that was significantly more talented kind of handle Army.
I kind of look for them to do the exact
same thing here. I don't think Army is gonna put
up a lot of points here.

Speaker 6 (06:42):
And you know it's not that I'm expecting to points
in this game. I mean the.

Speaker 1 (06:46):
Undergoes over frequently. The total here is thirty eight and
a half. It would have gone over that last year.
I'm not suggesting that you've taken over, but I would
suggest that Navy is probably and I know that my
power rating and my last four says something different, but
Navy minus seven here, This thing is on the other

(07:08):
side of a key number. Typically I like taking dogs.

Speaker 6 (07:12):
Not in this instance.

Speaker 1 (07:14):
I think Horvath and company are just a significantly better
team overall. I think they're gonna put up points. I
think it's gonna be hard for Army to keep up.
I'm looking for a double digit win for Navy here,
so I will take the Midshipman minus the six and
a half. Saturday night, seven pm Central Time, God's time
Zone on ABC, this one after after I believe the

(07:37):
Heisman Trophy ceremony.

Speaker 6 (07:39):
It is the Bucked Up LA.

Speaker 1 (07:41):
Bowl, presented by Gronk. I don't know why we're still
doing that. It's in Los Angeles, California, Boise State playing
against Washington. Washington a nine and a half point favorite
total of fifty two and a half on this and
that is up from the eight and a half that
was when I generate the generated these sheets the other night.
Washington power rated by seven here last four weeks Washington

(08:04):
by eleven point four, and my projected stat spread has
Washington by ten point six y three.

Speaker 6 (08:11):
So let's get into it.

Speaker 1 (08:13):
Let's see, uh, Boise is zero and three against the
spread in their last three bowl games. In every bowl
game since twenty twenty they didn't play in a couple
of those. They are minus seven there, Washington two and
two against the spread. Since twenty twenty, they are plus
point four in their bowl games. Jedfish staying at Washington.

(08:36):
He did not take the Florida job. Kind of surprised
by that. I really thought he was going to be
the guy uh to take it. But I mean, absolutely
fantastic recruiting job that he's done.

Speaker 6 (08:46):
They are building a.

Speaker 1 (08:47):
Great roster, and Washington looked pretty good for most of
the year. They did not look good against Oregon to
close out the year, but nobody other than Indiana looks
really good against Oregon. So Washington number thirty eight in
strength of schedule, Bois number seventy three, and Boise will
have their quarterback.

Speaker 6 (09:05):
Everything looks good there, but.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
The offense is still kind of eh. Boise was able
to run the football on UNLV when they got wins
this year, it was because they were able to bully
teams in the trenches. I don't think you're gonna be
able to do that against Washington. Although you know, Washington
really good against the run, number thirteen and ppa allowed
per rush, number nineteen in the yards allowed per rush,

(09:28):
but there are number fifty four and offensive line yards
allowed number ninety two in stuff rate allowed. Boise, you know,
number fifty two in offensive line yards, number fifty in
stuff rate. Maybe they can get a little bit of
a push here. I'm not fully expecting it, but regardless
is what it is. On this can Boise finish drives.

(09:49):
They are number fifty nine in points per scoring opportunity.
They are number nineteen in scoring opportunities per game, so
almost seven drives per game. Do they get a first
down inside the opponent forty? Washington number forty seven in
scoring opportunities per game, but they are number twenty seven
in points allowed a per scoring opportunity per game. So
this Washington defense is pretty good, pretty good. On the

(10:11):
other side, the Washington offense really good. Boise's defense is
number one oh seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
Washington is number eighteen. Jed Fish and company know how
to finish drives. Demand Williams, he's gonna play. He's coming
back to school next year. Don't think we've got a
whole lot to worry about as far as people sitting
out this game. There may be a few opt outs

(10:34):
here and there, but regardless from what I've seen, we
got rosters.

Speaker 6 (10:40):
We're good to go.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Washington is immensely more talented overall than Boisse number twenty
seven in overall talent rank, Bois number eighty. And the
defense for Boise good against the pass. The issue for
them is that Washington is number seventy nine in pass
rate in the country. Boise is number one twenty four
in PPA allowed per rush, Washington's offense number nine, Boisse

(11:06):
number one sixteen in yards allowed per rush, Washington's offense
number forty four. There's just a really big difference here.
And when you look at explosiveness, Washington number twenty five
in rushing explosiveness, Bois number one twenty in rushing explosiveness allowed.
I think that Washington is going to be able to
do some things, especially when they use Williams as a rusher,

(11:27):
which they might not do a ton, but it I
think it's gonna be enough. Nine and a half is
the I mean, it's going in the right direction. Washington
minus eight and a half is what I had it
at and now it's Washington minus.

Speaker 6 (11:41):
Nine and a half.

Speaker 1 (11:41):
It's still under that key number of ten. Washington just
a much.

Speaker 6 (11:46):
Better football team overall.

Speaker 1 (11:50):
I think they're gonna handle business, and I think they
will use this as a way to jump into next season.

Speaker 6 (11:57):
They are eight and four. They are.

Speaker 1 (12:01):
Looking for that ninth win, and Boise already has their
ninth win. They are nine to four, but that is
Againstate Mountain West schedule. Washington I think has a chance
to compete in the Big Ten next year. We'll see
how they do with travel and whatnot. But as far
as this game is concerned, this Boise team is not
the same team that made the playoff last year. I

(12:24):
think they're gonna have trouble here. Give me Washington minus
nine and a half. The is four s salute to
Veterans Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, and you got two Alabama
teams in Troy and Jacksonville State. This one eight pm
Central Time on ESPN on Tuesday, December sixteenth. Troy a

(12:47):
three and a half point favorite with a total of
forty six and a half on this one, and looking
at the bowl spread records, both.

Speaker 6 (12:56):
Are one and one.

Speaker 1 (12:58):
Troy plus one and a half Jacksonville State minus two
point three. Excuse me, Troy minus two point three Jacksonville
State plus one and a half. The only issue that
we've really got here is that Jacksonville State does not
exactly measure up with Troy when it comes to talent. Now,
it's not that it's not that Troy is significantly more talented.

(13:21):
They're number eighty eight in overall talent rank at on three,
Jacksonville State is number one oh five. But when you
start diving into position groups, Jacksonville State number one thirty.

Speaker 6 (13:32):
Five in offensive line.

Speaker 1 (13:34):
As far as the position ranking goes, Troy's defensive line
number ninety eight, Troy number seventy seven in offensive line,
number one oh one in opponent defensive line for Jacksonville State.
I I will tell you this, Jacksonville State's running back fantastic,
absolutely fantastic. They are number sixteen in PPA per rush,
number thirteen in yards per rush, number twenty three in

(13:56):
rushing success rate. Troy's defense number eighty two, number one
oh three, number sixty three in those metrics. That's where
Jacksonville State is going to have some success here. This
number was at four, it's down to three and a half.

Speaker 6 (14:10):
Now.

Speaker 1 (14:13):
Troy, I do think, is more talented along the lines
of scrimmage. They've got some more weight, they got some
bigger bodies. It's just a better overall football team. The
issue is that Troy without Goose Crowder. I mean the
ankle gone in that Sunbelt Championship game just and they

(14:35):
were hanging in that game with James Madison as well.

Speaker 6 (14:38):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (14:40):
What to expect now with the backup quarterback coming in again,
because Troy was not good with that backup quarterback defense
pretty good against the pass, You're not gonna have to
worry about that a whole lot with Jacksonville State. They
throw the ball less than thirty five percent of the time.
It's number one twenty nine and pass rate. Jacksonville State
is number sixty three in points per scoring our oportunity,
Troy is number twenty nine.

Speaker 6 (15:03):
Difference here, of course, being that.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
I think Jacksonville State's going to be able to do
whatever they want to run the football against Troy's defense.
On the other side, Troy is not good at anything
on offense. They're abysmal running the football. Number one thirty
two in yards per rush, number one twenty four in
PPA per rush, number one fifteen, and rushing success rate.
It's not that Jacksonville State's good, they're perfectly mediocre. Number

(15:32):
seventy eight in PPA allowed for rush, number sixty one
in yards allowed for rush, Number seventy eight and rushing
success rate, and they're pretty good as far as offensive
line yards allowed, number thirty three. There, Troy is number
sixty two in points per scoring opportunity, but Jacksonville State
number ninety five. On the other side of that is
the fact that Troy doesn't get down there very often,

(15:53):
number one twenty three in scoring opportunities per game. Jacksonville
State is number forty six, so they don't allow a
lot of drives for the to get a first down
inside their forty Jacksonville State number sixty two, and five
factors rank Troy number seventy six. This feels like a
field goal game. And Troy with the backup quarterback, I

(16:17):
don't know what to make of it. Jacksonville State is
number one thirty six and current strength to schedule Troy
number ninety six, but again with the backup quarterback, and
you don't know exactly where the motivations lie. Like Gerard
Parker had a good season this year. Eight and five
is really good, but also you know, Charles Kelly and company,
eight and five is fantastic for them.

Speaker 6 (16:40):
This is a rivalry rivalry.

Speaker 1 (16:43):
I mean, these are not exactly teams that play all
that often, but they are both from Alabama. They're playing
a bowl game in Alabama. I think you're gonna see
a pretty good crowd. I think this is a field
goal kind of game. So in this instance, even though
Jacksonville State is the less talented team, they do the
one thing on offense that Troy is not good at defending.

Speaker 6 (17:03):
I think we can see an upset.

Speaker 1 (17:04):
I'll take Jacksonville State plus three and a half. Are
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Speaker 6 (18:35):
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Speaker 1 (18:55):
I already told you to make sure that you were
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(19:17):
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Speaker 6 (19:32):
All Right.

Speaker 1 (19:32):
College Football Playoff Round one. This one in Norman, Oklahoma,
on Friday, December the nineteenth, the Oklahoma Sooners hosting.

Speaker 6 (19:41):
The Alabama Crimson Tide. And yes, we have already.

Speaker 1 (19:43):
Seen this game once this season, just like we saw
Georgia and Alabama. Alabama wins in Athens, Georgia wins in Atlanta.
Completely different games depending on who actually plays in the games. Right,
Alabama has a couple of weeks.

Speaker 6 (19:58):
To get healthy.

Speaker 1 (19:59):
They should have have a large contingency of the injured
players that were out for the SEC Championship game. They
should be back for this game. In the first game
between Alabama and Oklahoma, Oklahoma win won twenty three to
twenty one in Tuscalousa. This one, of course taking place
in Norman, and Alabama had like a two hundred yards

(20:20):
excuse me, a two hundred yard.

Speaker 6 (20:22):
Advantage in that ball game.

Speaker 1 (20:24):
But they lost the turnover battle three to nothing, and
they lost the special teams battle, they lost the field
position battle.

Speaker 6 (20:30):
They I mean, there were.

Speaker 1 (20:32):
Several things, but Alabama showed that they could drive the
ball on this Oklahoma defense. And that is the big
thing about Oklahoma. They are number four and PPA allowed
per drive the Oklahoma offense. Nothing to right home about
number ninety seven there. So as far as PPA margin
that's predicted points added, they are number twenty seven. Alabama
is number twenty. They're number twenty six on offense, number

(20:53):
nineteen on defense. Pretty balanced team overall when you really
look at it. Bama pretty good against the run. I
don't think he got anything to worry about with Oklahoma
running the football. John Matier can escape the pocket some,
but when he does interesting things happen, it's gonna be

(21:16):
either something explosive or it could end up being a
turnover and Oklahoma has gotten better as far as their
turnover margin, but they are still number eighty one in
that they are number sixty nine and giveaways per game
number ninety four and takeaways per game. Probably should have
lost the game to LSU, but they found a way

(21:37):
to win it. The defense did just enough and once
if you only give up thirteen points, then all you
need is a couple of big plays, and that's what
they can get out of Jometier. So you look at
the offense, there's nothing to write home about here. Not
great throwing the football number eighty one and QBR number
seventy two in yards per attempt, rushing the football number
ninety one or sorry, number one oh eight, yards per

(22:00):
rush number one oh six, and rushing success rate. Alabama's
defense all year long, they have been good enough to
defend that kind of stuff. So Alabama's defense again number
nineteen and PBA allowed for drive number seventeen in defensive
success rate, number thirty one against the pass, number seventeen
against the rush. Oklahoma number sixty six in points per
scoring opportunity, but there are only number eighty five in

(22:23):
scoring opportunities per game. That's first downs inside the opponent forty.
Alabama is number thirty seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
number twenty seven in scoring opportunities per game, so they
don't allow you unless you win the field goal or
the field position battle, is what it is. Bama's number
one thirteen in special teams efficiency, Oklahoma's number twenty one.

(22:44):
A lot of that can, of course be attributed to
Tate Sandel.

Speaker 6 (22:48):
Who I believe is going to win the lu Groza.

Speaker 1 (22:50):
We'll see, but he has been outstanding all year, so
Oklahoma understands the value of points. He is about as
automatic as you can get. Now, on the other side,
Bama cannot run the football. That is what Oklahoma does best.
But Bama number one twenty in yards per rush, number

(23:11):
one oh eight in rush rates, so they don't do
it very often, less than forty five percent of the time,
number eighty four in rushing success rate, but in certain
spots when jam Miller's healthy. And now I don't think
Kevin Riley, the third string is going to be back.
I think Daniel Hill will be healthier than he was.
In the SEC Championship game.

Speaker 6 (23:30):
You were at a.

Speaker 1 (23:30):
Point where Bama was having to play ak deer who
is their fourth string freshman running back meaningful snaps in
the SEC Championship game. That's how beat up Alabama has been.
You give him a couple of weeks off, we'll see.
Kaylend Wore seems to believe that a lot of the
guys that were out are going to be healthy for
this game, and I would assume for the playoff run

(23:53):
if they were to make one.

Speaker 6 (23:55):
Bama passing the football.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
As bad as things have looked with Tyson as of late,
here's one thing that I don't understand, by the way,
because Oklahoma's gonna try and take advantage of this. Oklahoma
is number three and have a rate Alabama number twenty
seven and have it cloud. They don't exactly help Tye
Simpson with the play calling because in certain situations and

(24:20):
you can see like the passing downs PPA number sixteen,
passing down success rate number twenty three, he's still on
third and eight. I mean, other teams just pin their
ears back and get after him. Georgia I think had
like eighteen quarterback hurries pressures. They don't do anything fast.

(24:41):
If they don't do anything fast in this game to
where they get the ball out to their playmakers, and
just let them make plays. Simpson's gonna get killed again.
So I'm curious what we can expect. I don't know exactly.
As far as in tangibles go, Alabama number twenty two

(25:02):
in penalties per game, Oklahoma number one oh two, Batman
number twenty six, and turnover margin Oklahoma number eighty one.
Bama is number thirty in points per scoring opportunity, Oklahoma
number five in points allowed per scoring opportunity Batman number
forty five in scoring opportunities per game, Oklahoma number fifteen
in scoring opportunities allowed per game, Oklahoma number seven and

(25:24):
five factors rank Bama's number nineteen. So Oklahoma has certainly
been playing overall better. The only issue with them is,
of course, penalties, turnovers, and their offense.

Speaker 6 (25:39):
Everything else is great.

Speaker 1 (25:40):
Bama has special teams problems, they can't run the football.
The other stuff is good, though, I'm curious. Bama three
and four against the spread and bowls since twenty twenty,
Oklahoma three and two, and Oklahoma is the team that
has had Alabama's number four years. I mean, just going

(26:01):
back as long as I can remember. BAMA got one
win over Oklahoma in a playoff game that was in
Miami when.

Speaker 6 (26:10):
Tua was the quarterback, and that's been about it. I
look at this.

Speaker 1 (26:15):
You know, Alabama favored by one and a half at
some books. They are a dog of one and a
half at some books, so it's kind of all over
the place. The total is forty and a half and
it is just sitting there. The total was forty four
for the last game, twenty three to twenty one, but
that went under the projected total the line, if you will,
and it went.

Speaker 6 (26:36):
Under quite a bit. I believe the I believe it
was forty eight, forty eight and a half something like that.

Speaker 1 (26:41):
So I look at this. I think Alabama's going to
be healthy. I think the turnovers are not going to
be quite the same as.

Speaker 6 (26:48):
They were last time.

Speaker 1 (26:51):
And I still trust Kaylen to boor in big time situations.
He seems to know what he's doing. And if he's
got a healthy football team, then I think that they
will be able to They'll still be able to move
the football against this Oklahoma defense. I think Alabama needed
to buy in the worst kind of way. I think
they'll be able to get it done. So I will

(27:11):
take Alabama at the best number I can get right
now is Bama plus one and a half. I don't
think it matters because I think they win the game outright,
and odds are probably gonna win by more than one
and a half. So whether it's Bama minus one and
a half or Bama plus one and a half, I'll
take Alabama to win this game in Norman, Saturday, December twentieth,

(27:35):
and we have got a monster matchup in the first round,
this one of course on ABC as well eleven am
Central time, God's time zone. Miami is headed to College
Station to take on Texas A and M.

Speaker 6 (27:46):
This is your ten to seven matchup.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
So the winner of this, of course goes on to
face Ohio State next week or the whatever New Year's
Eve whenever that is. A and M is a three
and a half point favorite total of fifty one and
a half on this and my projected stat spread has
A and M by two point twenty one. My power
rating has A and M by four. My last four
weeks has an M minus almost nine points. Found that

(28:13):
very interesting, very very interesting. Let's take a look over
all of these two teams. Miami oh to three against
the spread since twenty twenty in bowl games. A and
M is one and two against the spread, so they
are minus one point seven. Neither team really performs well
when it comes to Bowl games.

Speaker 6 (28:29):
Five factors rank.

Speaker 1 (28:30):
Miami is number three, A and M is number ten.
This one is interesting to say the least interesting, to
say the least. A and M's offense not great throwing
the football, but they can be insanely explosive. Miami's defense
really really good at defending explosive passes number twenty one

(28:51):
in passing explosiveness allowed an m is number eighteen. Have
a great allowed A and M's offense number five, Miami
number nine. So Rubin Bain and company gonna try and
get after the quarterback a little bit. Can they make
Marcel Read uncomfortable? That's what we're trying to figure out.
I wouldn't put a lot of faith in that because

(29:11):
I do like Texas A and M's offensive line. However,
Miami against the run number nine and ppa per rush
number ten in yards allowed per rush, A and M
number forty three and number twenty eight in those and
you saw that they were not able to get it
done against Texas. And I think that Miami is closer
to Texas than they are some of the other teams

(29:32):
that A and M has played thus far this year
special teams that's in Miami's favor. They are number twelve
and special teams efficiency per sp plus Texas.

Speaker 6 (29:40):
A and M is number eighty one.

Speaker 1 (29:43):
When you look at some of the other intangibles penalties
per game both through outside the top one twenty, Miami
is number twelve and turnover margins, so they don't turn
it over a ton, although that would be the story
of their season. Carson Beck going on the road does
not exactly strike fear in anybody, and they are number
seventy six and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. The issue

(30:05):
is that A and M is number one thirty one
and interceptions gained per pass attempt defended, so they're pretty
good against the pass number twenty n PPA allowed per pass.
They are number thirty three in QBR allowed, but Miami
number nine in QBR and number.

Speaker 6 (30:20):
Six and PPA per pass.

Speaker 1 (30:23):
I think Miami's going to be able to throw the
football on them a little bit because you don't really
have to worry about A and M getting takeaways, right
they're number one to twenty and takeaways per game number
eighty and giveaways per game, so that's certainly not great
when you think about it. These two teams are both
inside the top ten as far as overall talent ranks,

(30:44):
so this is a monster matchup. Miami running the football
not exactly anything that you're going to write home about,
but they did have a running back come on late
that kind of changed things up to the number twenty
eight and rushing success rate in defense is number eleven.
Offensive line yards A and M is number seventeen in

(31:06):
offensive line yards allowed, Miami number thirty five. In offensive
line yards Miami number seventeen. And stuff rate A and
M number twenty one and stuff rate, I mean it's
pretty equal. This is a pretty equal ballgame. Average field
position on both sides. Both are pretty good at this,
you know, scoring opportunities Miami a number fourteen, and points

(31:28):
per scoring opportunity A and M is number one oh five.
But A and M is also number ten in scoring
opportunities allowed per game. Miami's number eleven. There So Miami,
I think we'll be able to drive more. Well, they'll
be able to drive some. I think that Miami's better
at finishing drives. A and M number twenty six. Points

(31:49):
per scoring opportunity on offense, Miami's defense is number eight,
and you're looking at number ten and number three. As
far as five factors are concerned, this Miami is not
great on the road by any stretch, but they have
been better this year. And I have to, of course,

(32:11):
you look at strength of schedule, Miami number forty five.
A and M is number sixteen. How A and M
is number sixteen blows my mind. I just I don't
have a lot of respect for what they did as
far as the schedule is concerned, because everything seemed to
come up roses for them in certain situations, and they

(32:31):
didn't exactly play a murderer's row of sec teams. They
caught Notre Dame, and my goodness, I mean, if that
extra point goes through, I mean, what are we looking
at here? This is a very difficult one, but I
think the line movement is headed in the right direction.

Speaker 6 (32:54):
A and M was.

Speaker 1 (32:56):
Favored by five and a half. It open, it's down
at three and a half. I think this is a
field goal game. I think Miami is probably the better
overall team, although they have not played the strength of
schedule to show it. Both of these teams beat Notre
Dame earlier this year, Miami kind of dominated him for

(33:17):
the most part. A and M had to come back
in in South Bend to do it. It was back
to back weeks, and it was what twelve weeks ago,
thirteen weeks ago, So we got to trust what we've
seen from these two teams recently, and A and M

(33:37):
the toughest team that they faced this.

Speaker 6 (33:38):
Year was really Texas.

Speaker 1 (33:43):
Outside of the Notre Dame game, but that was way
way way back. I think Miami is going to put
up a fight here. I don't expect a bunch of turnovers.
They do have the more experienced quarterback, the better passer,
and while College Station is certainly going to be ramped

(34:03):
up for this, I think it does Miami some favors
that this game is going to be at eleven am
Central as opposed.

Speaker 6 (34:08):
To a night game.

Speaker 1 (34:10):
Well that said, yeah, I'll take Miami plus the three
and a half. I think they can hang in this game.
I think they can win this game. It's a coin flip.
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Speaker 1 (36:05):
We have talked a lot of SEC and the College
Football Playoff, so we might as well keep that train
rolling with an old school SEC matchup. Ole Miss hosting
TWU Lane This one, of course, Saturday, December twentieth, This
one at two thirty pm Central Time on ABC. Excuse me, TNT,
that's right, they changed this thing up. It's TNT, HBO

(36:27):
Max and True TV maybe something along those lines. Anyway,
they don't want to compete. The ESPN does not want
to compete with the NFL when it comes to this, so.

Speaker 6 (36:37):
I totally get it.

Speaker 1 (36:38):
But this would not be competing with the NFL anyway,
if we're just being honest. We saw this game earlier
this year ole Miss. I know at one point it
was thirty eight to three. I don't know if that's
what it finished. It might have been thirty eight to ten.
It might have been forty five to ten. I don't know,
but I remember specifically watching this game. It was the

(36:58):
same day that at I watched Oklahoma and Auburn and
ole Miss beat two Lane like a drum. Now we
can't escape the fact that Lane Kiffin is not going
to be on the sideline for ole Miss. They do
seem pretty ramped up and pretty excited that Pete Golding
is going to be their full time head coach. John

(37:20):
Summral the head coach for two Lane. Whenever he loses
a game that is going to be his last one
in New Orleans, he will be headed off to Florida.
Will Hall is going to be the new head coach,
but John Somerral will still be acting as head coach
for the playoff run.

Speaker 6 (37:35):
However long that is.

Speaker 1 (37:37):
Ole Miss is favored by seventeen and a half now
total fifty six and a half on this one. My
projected stat spread has almost by sixteen point twenty five.
My power rating has almossed by a little under fourteen.
My last four weeks would actually have two lane favored
by like ten points, which is bananas. When you look

(37:58):
at overall talent rank, I've got ole Miss by twenty
one two lane by or excuse me, oh Miss number
twenty one in overall talent rank per on three two
lane number sixty nine, both of these teams inside the
top fifteen. As far as special teams are concerned. Let's
look at the two lane defense, which is not great.
Their number sixty three in PBA allowed per drive on defense,

(38:21):
but their number eighty seven and rushing success rate allowed
number one oh eight in passing success rate allowed this
ole Miss offense. Who is getting back Basically everybody that's
on the offensive staff other than the head coach Lane
kiffn He allowed everybody to go back, and ole Miss
allowed everybody to come back for it. So Charlie Wise
Junior is going to be calling plays. He is the
offensive coordinator, was the offensive coordinator as well, along with

(38:45):
all of the other position groups. So like their offensive
staff is intact, the defensive staff, of course is intact.

Speaker 6 (38:52):
With Pete Golding and company.

Speaker 1 (38:55):
They should be perfectly fine in a game like this
because they are going to physically I don't want to
have a I don't want to say a man handle,
but there's just a significant advantage when it comes to
ole Missus roster compared to two lanes roster.

Speaker 6 (39:13):
Two lane is pretty good on the line of scrimmage.

Speaker 1 (39:16):
But there are number seventy two on the offensive line
against ole Missus defense, that's number twe excuse me, defensive
line that's number twenty eight. On the other side, the
two lane offensive line is that right, Sorry, sorry, two
lane offensive line is number seventy two. The two lane
defensive line is number twenty four. So on defense, two

(39:38):
lane can potentially compete with ole Miss.

Speaker 6 (39:45):
I'm not expecting it though.

Speaker 1 (39:46):
Ole Miss number eleven in points per scoring opportunity, two
lanes defense number fifty nine, ole Miss number three in
scoring opportunities per game, two lane number ninety three in
scoring opportunities allowed per game. On the other side, two
lane number forty six in points per scoring opportunity, ole
Miss's defense number sixteen, and two lane number forty five

(40:09):
in scoring opportunities per game. That's when you get a
first down inside of the opponent forty ole Miss number
forty one. I'm just not seeing a ton of opportunities
for two lane. Two lane also number seventy four in
defensive red zone touchdown rate, number one hundred in offensive
red zone touchdown rate. I think ole Miss is gonna
score a lot. I don't think Tulane is at all.

(40:34):
Now we have not seen ole Miss without their head coach,
but we do know that this is a playoff game.
We do know that ole Miss has it at home.
It is the biggest game that will happen in the
state of Mississippi. Maybe ever, I think it's huge, absolutely huge.

(40:55):
Five factors plus talent has ole Miss at number twenty one,
has two lane at number fifty. Both of them are
pretty good as far as the first half is concerned.
But tu lane is number eighty four and second half
point margin ole Miss is number fifteen. I think this
could get lopsided at two lane one in three against
the spread in bowl games. So when it comes to bowls,

(41:17):
I mean we saw we saw the same thing here
when Tulane played against Florida last year. I thought they
would hang around in that game even without Darien Mensa.

Speaker 6 (41:26):
I was wrong. I was incorrect. They got whipped at
the line of scrimmage.

Speaker 1 (41:33):
I think you're probably going to see a lot of
the exact same thing here. I just don't believe that
Tulane has the guys to hang in here. So this
thing did jump over seventeen. So it's ole Miss minus
seventeen and a half. I think you're probably gonna see
ole Miss by at least three touchdowns, if not more.
So I'm going against my numbers here. I think that
ole Miss is going to whip them, and I will

(41:55):
take the Rebels minus seventeen and a half one more time.
If you have not all ready subscribe to the channel,
that's right.

Speaker 6 (42:02):
I gotta do is hit the subscribe button. It's free.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
You help me out tremendously when you do that, and
make sure and hit that like button, and of course
jump in the comments. Let me know your picks on
these games. I want to know what you think is
gonna happen as well, not just me spouting off my
opinion over here. I want to know was ou what
are you thinking? So go ahead and knock.

Speaker 6 (42:21):
That out for me.

Speaker 1 (42:22):
The last CFP first round game gives us number twelve
against number five James Madison going.

Speaker 6 (42:28):
All the way across the country to Eugene.

Speaker 1 (42:31):
This one six thirty pm Central Time on TNT, and
Oregon is a twenty one and a half point favorite
at home with a total of fifty and a half,
the Ducks taking on the James Madison Dukes.

Speaker 6 (42:44):
That's right.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
We had two G five teams make it into the
playoff this year, thanks ACC And it's not often that
you see a playoff game where you have a three
touchdown spread. Probably not going to see that in the NFL.
Very rarely are you going to see it in college

(43:06):
football as well, but that's.

Speaker 6 (43:09):
Where we are.

Speaker 1 (43:11):
If you just look at ross stats, it looks like
a pretty good matchup.

Speaker 6 (43:15):
Oregon number one in.

Speaker 1 (43:16):
The country in PPA margin, James Madison is number nine,
James Madison number thirty five in offensive success rate. Oregon's
defense is number fourteen, Oregon's offense number six in offensive
success rate, James Madison's defense number one. So James Madison
has played incredibly.

Speaker 6 (43:34):
Well this year.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
The issue is that Oregon is number nineteen in current
strength of schedule over at ESPN, James Madison is number
one twenty three. I don't know if we will ever
see a playoff team with a strength to schedule inside
the one twenties again, but this was an odd year,
is what it is. When it comes to bowls, James

(43:58):
Madison has only been in two of them. They are
one and one against the spread in those, Oregon one
and four against the spread in bowl games in postseason games.
So I mean, this number is a little crazy for
a college football playoff game. But when you look at
the overall talent rank, Oregon is number seven, James Madison

(44:19):
number one hundred Oregon. The one that's right here for
them was against Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl and they
beat Liberty thirty eight to six, and it was never
even a ballgame. And that was a good Liberty team
that was undefeated, that had, you know, really done a
good job against everybody that they played. Their numbers all

(44:39):
looked like this for James Madison. The issue that you
run into is Oregon is number three as far as
the offensive line position group is concerned, James Madison number
fifty nine.

Speaker 6 (44:50):
On defense.

Speaker 1 (44:52):
On the other side, James Madison's offensive line number ninety two,
Oregon's defensive line number fifty two, and they've actually gotten
significantly better throughout the year. They're number five as far
as linebacker unit, number four in opponent back seven Oregon
number seventy one as far as running back is concerned,
but they've gotten better there. They're number twenty five and

(45:12):
skill players. James Madison's defense number fifty three, number sixty
two as far as their running backs are concerned. I mean,
it's it's a mismatch. It is a complete and total mismatch,
and there's no real way to quantify exactly how much.
How about this, when you weigh the talent five factors rank,

(45:34):
James Madison is number eight and Oregon is number nine.
If you just look at raw five factors. If you
do five factors plus talent and that includes talent being
weighted at thirty percent, Oregon is number three. James Madison
is number sixty five. I mean, it's it's a night
and day difference as far as the talent between these

(45:55):
two teams. Oregon's defense is going to be able to
shut down everything that James Madison wants to do. On offense,
James Madison runs the ball sixty percent of the time.

Speaker 6 (46:05):
How do you do that?

Speaker 1 (46:07):
If your offensive line group is number ninety two and
the Oregon defensive line is fifty two, the linebackers are
number five, How explain it? To me, I don't know
that James Madison is going to get a whole lot
of push at all unless Oregon is already up by
four touchdowns. So as far as points per scoring drive,

(46:31):
all that who can finish drives. Oregon number twenty five
in points per scoring opportunity, James Madison's defense number thirty seven.
On the other side, James Madison number fifty one in
points per scoring opportunity on offense, Oregon's defense number seventy six.
Both of them have plenty of opportunities, though because Oregon, uh,
well excuse me, Oregon doesn't have a ton of opportunities

(46:53):
because they don't give up many drives where the opponent
gets a first down inside the forty yard line. Oregon
is number on four in scoring opportunities per game. James
Madison is number five. You look at turnover margin, Oregon
is number eighteen. James Madison is number seventy seven. You
look at penaltyes per game, Oregon is number thirty three.

(47:13):
James Madison outside the top one hundred special teams, Oregon
is number thirty seven. James Madison is number eighty nine.
So even the intangibles, the things that James Madison would
need to go right. The odds are not exactly in
their favor that they do. This thing's out to twenty
one and a half. It was twenty one when.

Speaker 6 (47:35):
I did the sheet the other night.

Speaker 1 (47:39):
My projected stats spread has Oregon by eighteen. My power
rating has Orgon by seventeen. My last four weeks has
Orgon by just one point. I still think talent is
the difference here. Oregon is so much better, and they're
at home, and by god, they got beat like a

(48:00):
in the first round last year, not the first round,
the quarterfinals, right, Ohio State waxed them. This is a
bit of a rebirth, if you will. Oregon is the
significantly better team. Twenty one and a half feels like
a lot, especially for a James Madison team. But I
saw James Madison kind of get handled by Louisville, and

(48:24):
I think Oregon's got a whole lot more weapons and
a lot bigger dudes. I'll take Oregon. Give me the
Ducks minus twenty one and a half. All right, let's
recap what we got for this week. Army is going
to Navy. I'm gonna take Navy minus six and a half.
The LA Bowl on Saturday Night, I'll take Washington minus
nine and a half, the IS four S Salute, the

(48:45):
Veterans Bowl. I'm gonna take Jacksonville State plus three and
a half against Troy, and then we get to the
College Football Playoff, I'm taking Bama plus one and a half,
Miami plus three and a half, Ole miss minus seventeen
and a half, Oregon minus twenty one and a half.
Next week, we have got a slew of games that
we're gonna be going over, and it's a bunch of
bowl games, so I hope that you guys are ready

(49:06):
for that. We'll have the Cure Bowl, the sixty eight
Ventures Bowl, the Xbox Bowl, the Myrtle Beach Bowl, the
Union Home Mortgage gas Parilla Bowl, the Idaho Bowl or
Idaho Potato Bowl, excuse me, the boke Over Tone Bowl.
I mean it's we're gonna be going over a lot
of stuff, a lot of stuff, So I hope that
you're ready. Subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast

(49:29):
because there will be audio only versions of this show
going out. Some stuff I'm gonna be talking about lines
closer to the games. I'll be talking about things that
are happening as far as the coaching caresel, et cetera.

Speaker 6 (49:40):
So make sure that you are subscribed over there, leave.

Speaker 1 (49:43):
A nice five star review, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, whatever it
might be that would certainly help me out. And of course,
if you like the sheets, support the show, buy me
a coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.

Speaker 6 (49:55):
With that said, it's time to get out of here.

Speaker 1 (50:00):
You guys are fantastic. I can't thank you enough. You
make every season fantastic. I really enjoy doing this, As
you guys know, I just I love college football. I
know it's a weird sport right now, but by God,
there's nothing better than a fall Saturday, and we have
got quite a few of those left. So with that said,
take care of yourself, take care of each other. God

(50:21):
bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets cash
this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe,
leave a review or comment, follow at Gary wclong x,
and check out the web store.

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