College Football Bowl Games Dec 17-23 Spread Picks & Predictions Part 2 | 9 games! - Winning Cures Everything

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
On today's show, we're going over nine college football bowl
games from the twenty twenty five season and we're gonna
make some predictions for the games from December seventeenth through
December twenty third. Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a
college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary
WC on all the different socials, most active on X.

(00:24):
Of course you want to reach out the old school way,
you can do that as well, Gary at Winning curesverything
dot com. And if you like the spreadsheets and the
stat sheets and whatnot that we're going to go over today,
you can get those over at buy Me a Coffee
dot com slash Winning Cures. Make sure that you join
up over there. It supports the show. It's five bucks
a month, fifty bucks for the year. So go ahead,

(00:45):
uh and knock that bad boy out on the season.
All the picks that I have made on this show
this year platform two sixteen, two thirteen and two not bad,
not awful, not great, But that's a lot of picks,
So it is what it is. I give you my

(01:06):
stats and then we go from there. Today we're gonna
be using Action Network's Bowl Injury List, Bowl Opt Out list,
bowl notes list to go along with the stats. So
we're gonna jump into everything today. Game number one, Wednesday,
December seventeenth. This is the Staff DNA Cure Bowl in Orlando,

(01:31):
Old Dominion against South Florida four pm Central time on ESBN.
USF is a three and a half point favorite total
of fifty three and a half and this thing opened
at six and a half with a total of fifty
seven on it. It's gonna be kind of harder to
use numbers on this one because Old Dominion starting quarterback

(01:52):
Clton Joseph he is going to sit out the bowl game,
so that means the freshman Quinn Hennicle would get the start.
He started one game against Arkansas State. He ran for
over two hundred yards there. USF quarterback Byron Brown he
is also opting out of the ball game. He's going
to serve as an assistant. So the senior quarterback, Gaston

(02:14):
Moore is going to start. Now, they do have a
freshman quarterback there that might get some playing time. From
what I understand, he is the one that they seem
to believe is the better of the two. Gaston Moore
is a senior, so he's going to get the start.
That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to play the whole game.
Alex golesh USF head coach. He is headed to Auburn

(02:38):
along with the offensive coordinator, Jewel Gordon. They're not going
to be with the team during the bowl season. The
defensive line coach is going to serve as the interim
you know. The new head coach is the offensive coordinator,
Brian Hartline. So we'll see what happens there. There could
be more opt outs as we get closer to game time.
You go through and look at some of this stuff,
and it is it's tough to see exactly what these

(03:04):
teams are going to be without their starting quarterback, at
least on offense. USF is number fifteen and PPA per
drive on offense Old Dominion number thirty six. But both
of them pretty good defenses. Both are top thirty defenses
as far as PPA allowed per drive. Both of them
are top thirty two as far as defensive success rate.

(03:30):
Both are Let's see what have we got here? Both
are top thirty two as far as points allowed per
scoring opportunity. So you got some defenses that are playing
pretty well here. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from
the offenses, especially against these defenses. Defense is an effort thing.

(03:51):
Old Dominion ish to two against the spread in bowl games,
South Florida is two to oh plus twenty four point three.
Old Dominion is minus six point three. So that is
something to pay attention to. Both of them really good
in the first half USF number eight and second half
point margin Old Dominion is eighty one, and USF just
has a significantly stronger talent profile than Old Dominion. This

(04:16):
thing has dropped far enough. It's you know, opened at
six and a half. My projected SAT spread has South
Florida by nine point one two. My power rating has
South Florida by six point two. My last four weeks
has South Florida by four point sixty five. Without the quarterbacks,
you kind of fall back to talent, right, and South

(04:39):
Florida has it in droves compared to Old Dominion. You
started getting into depth at that point, and I would
trust South Florida quite a bit more than I would
trust Old Dominion, although I do think that Old Dominion

(05:01):
there's a chance that they could flip around their entire
offense to go with the hinnocle. But I'm gonna trust
South Florida. Too many people are on old dominion right now.
You never know exactly what that's gonna mean in old dominion,
a bad record in bowl games. Since twenty twenty, South
Florida has always played well in bowl games. Yeah, that's

(05:22):
the direction we're going. I will take South Florida the
favorite minus three and a half in this one on Wednesday.
Also on Wednesday, the sixty eight Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.
You got Louisiana and Delaware. This one is seven thirty
pm Central on ESPN. Louisiana a three to three and
a half point favorite depending on which book, sixty and

(05:43):
a half to sixty one and a half the total
depending on which book. Now, this thing opened at fifty
eight and a half for the total, and it opened
at Louisiana minus three and a half. Interesting that there
hasn't been a ton of movement on it. But the
movement that has come in has gone the direction that
my spreadsheet will tell you. I've got Delaware favored by

(06:04):
zero point four to three in projected stat spread power rating.
I've got Louisiana by almost two points, and my last
four weeks would have Delaware by four and a half points.
Louisiana two and three against the spread since twenty twenty
in bowl games. This is Delaware's first bowl game and
they have been hoping for this. Louisiana's numbers on the

(06:26):
season not great, number one oh five in PPA margin,
Delaware number eighty three. The best unit on the field
in this is going to be the Delaware offense. They're
number forty one in PPA per drive. They are number
fifty one in offensive success rate, but they're not particularly
great throwing the ball or running the ball. They're worse

(06:47):
running it, number one ten in yards per rush, number
seventy eight and rushing success rate. Louisiana's defense is terrible
against the run, so we're going to see exactly which
team ends up showing up there. But where number fifty
eight and PPA per pass? They were number eight in
pass rate, So they throw a ton and teams don't

(07:07):
seem to throw a ton on Louisiana more than likely
because Louisiana cannot stop the They cannot stop the run.
Delaware number twenty in scoring opportunities per game, but they're
only number eighty one in points per scoring opportunity, and
that's when you get a first down inside of the
opponent's forty yard line. Louisiana's number one thirty one in
scoring opportunities allowed per game, but their number forty seven

(07:30):
in points allowed per scoring opportunity. As far as turnover margin,
Louisiana number forty one and takeaways per game, but their
number eighty in giveaways. Delaware number fifty five in takeaways
per game, but they're number one oh seven and giveaways,
so I would not be shocked in the slightest if
this game ended up coming down to turnovers. So it's

(07:51):
not exactly one that I would love to bet, but
it is what it is. Louisiana number ninety eight in
overall team talent delawarember one twenty four. Delaware is pretty
good against the run, number thirty two and rushing success allowed.
There are number one ten in yards allowed per rush,
but their number sixty one in offensive line yards allowed
number thirty one and stuff rate. Louisiana is number forty

(08:13):
six and rushing explosiveness number eighty in rushing success rate,
number thirty seven. In yards per rush, Delaware being number
ninety five and rushing explosiveness allowed not great definitely, but
but you know they can bow up when they need to.
Penalties per game, Delaware number forty six, USF number seventy nine.

(08:38):
You look at defensive red zone conversion percentage, Delaware is
number one twenty one, Louisiana's number thirty one. Louisiana number
forty nine in offensive red zone conversion percentage, but their
number one o four in offensive red zone touchdown rate.
Delaware is number forty four in offensive red zone touchdown
rate and Louisiana number seventy four and defensive red zone
touchdown rate. So whenever you get down there, I would
expect Delaware to be able to score with Louisiana. I'm

(09:04):
not totally certain as far as people being out. There's
several people that did not play in the final couple
of weeks for Delaware. The running back Joe Silver. He
returned in the finale, he only played twenty three snaps.
Their offensive guard, wide receiver Kelly the tight end Widhoft.

(09:26):
We'll see exactly what that means for the offense. I
don't think it's gonna be that big of an issue.
More than likely they will come back for this game.
We'll see for Louisiana, the quarterback Lunch Winfield left the
regular season finale. Walker Howard ended up taking over. He
was supposed to start this season, got hurt early, came back.

(09:47):
We'll see lunch. Winfield did come back for a play
very late in the game. We'll see what happens. Their
center did miss the finale, so that could be something.
This one is an interesting spot because I do think
Delaware is going to be more motivated than Louisiana, and

(10:11):
the numbers all say to go this direction. So there's
still a three and a half on the board. We're
gonna take Delaware plus the three and a half. I
think the Blue Hens show up here. Louisiana they got
to the bowl game, remains to be seen what they're
going to look like. The talent rank in this certainly
favors Louisiana, but I don't think it's significant enough to

(10:35):
make a huge difference. I think motivation plays a big
factor here. I think Delaware will be motivated. So Delaware
plus three and a half. Thursday, December eighteenth, the Xbox
Bowl in Frisco, Texas, and this one's got Missouri State
and Arkansas State. Missouri State one of those FCS teams
that moved up to Conference USA this past year. They

(10:55):
have been playing better as of late. For sure. This
one eight pm Central Time on ESPN two and Arkansas
State favored by one to one and a half here
with a total of fifty six and a half. It
has come down from the two and a half that
it was before. Power rating has Arkansas State by one
point one. Projected stat spread has Arkansas State by three,

(11:17):
but if you just go based on the last four weeks,
Missouri State would be favored by five point eight eight.
As far as transfer, portal, injuries, et cetera, not a,
both teams are relatively healthy. There's not really a bunch
of opt outs here. The starting center, Cash Hudson for
Missouri State, he's entering the portal. Hasn't said that he's

(11:39):
opting out. I don't believe, but obviously we'll keep an
eye on that. Their defensive tackle Williams and the defensive
end Tony both last played in week twelve. And Arkansas State.
They're left guard Tristan Smith last played in week ten,
so he has been out since then. So let's keep
an eye on exactly what the injuries look like, etc.

(11:59):
I would not expect a lot of sitouts for this
bowl game. Missouri State number one oh eight MPBA margin,
Arkansas State number one thirteen, Arkansas State number ninety seven
in overall talent rank, Missouri State number one twenty five.
The best unit on the field is going to be
the Missouri State passing offense, and Arkansas State happens to
be kind of bad against the pass. Number ninety five

(12:22):
in PPA allowed for pass number one fifteen in QBR allowed,
number one fourteen in yards allowed per attempt. Missouri State
is number forty three, number thirty five and number thirty
in those metrics. Passing success rate number eighty four from
Missouri State, but there are number twenty two in passing explosiveness,
Arkansas State, number one oh seven in passing success allowed,

(12:42):
and number one hundred in passing explosiveness allowed. So that's
something to pay attention to. Arkansas State is number ninety
nine and have it created. Missouri State is number one
thirty six and HAVOC allowed, something to pay attention to.
Just keep an eye on that because it's not that
Arkansas State is great at it, but if you're able

(13:03):
to get to the quarterback and disrupt things, that could
be interesting. Missouri State's quarterback or excuse me, Missouri State's
coach is leaving to take over Coastal Carolina. I have
not seen whether or not Ryan Beard is going to
coach in this game. My guess is he's already hited
off to South Carolina. But we will see. We will see.

(13:28):
Five factors rank. Both of them are inside the top
one hundred, but not very far in there. Number ninety
eight for Missouri State, number ninety six for Arkansas State.
Arkansas State way better in the second half. Both teams
not very good as far as the first half is concerned.
As far as first half point margin, penalties per game,
both are really good at opponent penalties per game, Arkansas

(13:48):
State number two, an opponent penalty sper game Missouri State
number sixteen. But when it comes to overall penalties from
these teams, Arkansas State number sixty four and Missouri State
number one oh seven. Turnover margin Missouri State number seventy one,
Arkansas State number one twenty one, and Arkansas State is
way better as far as special teams is concerned. That

(14:09):
is certainly something to pay attention to. On this Missouri
State has not played in a bowl game. Arkansas State
is one and one plus six point three in bowls
since twenty twenty. You know, both teams have covered seven
times this year. That's something to pay attention to. Arkansas
State plays fast thirteen or number thirteen in place per minute,

(14:33):
Missouri State number ninety eight in place per minute, So
you've got a pace battle here for sure. I think
both teams have played a pretty weak strength of schedule,
Arkansas State number one twenty four, Missouri State number ninety five.
But I feel better about Arkansas State, especially given the

(14:56):
time away. Everything kind of resets, Butch Jones gets his
players to show up. They this team didn't seem like
a team that would be making a bowl game to
me this year, but somehow they find ways to win,
especially close games. And when you've got a spread of

(15:18):
one to one and a half, eh, I mean, there's
not a whole lot that I can look at that
would tell me Arkansas State other than maybe talent, but
they just find ways to win games, and I feel
like they're gonna end up doing that here, so I
will take Arkansas State. The best number I can get
is a one. Give me the Red Wolves minus one

(15:38):
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(15:58):
help out the show, subscribe to the channel, like the
video and jump in the comments. Tell me your picks
on these games, what you'd think I should be looking for.
Tell me if I've missed something with coaches or opt outs,
et cetera. I would love to know any information you got,
but toss it over to us and let us know.
That's how we keep the community going. But definitely subscribe
to the channel. And we're going to keep this thing

(16:20):
going all the way through the National Championship Game and
beyond because we're gonna be talking about stuff in the
offseason as well. Friday December nineteenth, ten a m. Central
Time on ESPN, we've got the Myrtle Beach Bowl presented
by Engine Kinnesas State against Western Michigan. That's right, You've
got the MAC champion against the Conference USA champion, and

(16:42):
both of them are I mean, not great overall, but
as far as PPA margin is concerned, pretty good both
inside the top seventy one. I'll take that Western Michigan
favored by three and a half to four depending on
the book total of forty nine and a half on
this one. And the best unit on the field is

(17:02):
going to be the Western Michigan defense. They are number
twenty five in success rate allowed, number twenty seven in
PPA allowed per drive. But the worst unit on the
field is going to be this Western Michigan offense, number
one oh seven in PPA per drive. The Knnesau State
defense is number seventy six in PPA per drive. Kinnesau
State's offense number sixty in PPA per drive. PPA, by

(17:23):
the way, is predicted points added as far as who
can finish drives. Western Michigan number one oh six in
points per scoring opportunity and Knnessau State's defense is number
sixty three. Kennesau State number one thirteen in points per
scoring opportunity, but they're number twelve in scoring opportunities per game.
Western Michigan is number thirty in points allowed per scoring opportunity.

(17:47):
And that is when you get a first down inside
the opponent forty yard line. Any drive that you get
a first down inside the opponent forty that's what we're
paying attention to. Western Michigan way better as far as
five factors are concerned. That includes field position, efficiency, turnovers,
et cetera. Right, so Western Michigan way better. Western Michigan
number twenty six in turnover margin. Kinnesau is number eighty.

(18:11):
This is this thing opened as Western Michigan minus four
and then came down to three and a half. And
I'm not totally certain that I understand why, although my
numbers would certainly had that direction. Western Michigan minus two
point eight nine is the projected stat spread power rating
has Western Michigan minus one point six. The last four
weeks though, would have Kinnisaus State favored by three. So

(18:34):
if you just look at the last well really five games,
because I included the championship games in here, if you
include the past five games for both of these teams,
it would have Knnisaul State favored by three. And I
look at this and I just think that Western Michigan

(18:55):
is going to be able to run the ball enough.
Number fifty one and rushing success. Right, they're very patient,
Like watching this team, very patient team. And I don't
get me wrong, I'm not exactly a huge Walt bell Fan,
that's the offensive coordinator for Western Michigan. But they found
something with this offense. They run the ball about sixty
five percent of the time, number sixty three in yards

(19:16):
per rush Kinnesau's number eighty eight. They are number fifty
one and rushing success rate. Kinnessau State is number seventy six,
number forty four in offensive line yards Kinnessau's number eighty eight. Like,
this offensive line is good enough to be able to
kind of push Kennesau State around, So I don't expect
Kennesaw to be able to keep Western Michigan from driving

(19:37):
the ball. Kennesau or sorry. Western Michigan is number fifty
three in scoring opportunities per game. Kennesau State is number
eighty eight, so that is certainly something to pay attention to.
Both of these teams are outside the top one ten
as far as talent rank. Both of them are around
one hundred as far as special team's efficiency. The thing

(19:58):
that Kinnesau does best to throw the football the number
forty one in PPA per pass. They are number twenty
six in yards per pass ATTEPT, number thirty one in QBR.
Western Michigan is number eighteen in PBA allowed for pass
number thirty three in yards allowed per attempt and number
twenty eight in QBR allowed passing success rate. Kennesau State's

(20:19):
offense number forty five. Western Michigan is number thirty five.
On top of that, Kennessau is not great a running
the football. They are number ninety in rushing success rate,
but they are number forty four in rushing explosiveness. Western Michigan,
number twenty two in rushing success allowed and number sixty
six in rushing explosiveness. Western Michigan looks like overall the

(20:41):
significantly better team. Kennesau is number twenty five in pace
of play, Western Michigan is number one nineteen. So the
Broncos are going to be slow and plotting and patient
on offense, and I think their defense is going to
force a lot of three and outs. I don't know
if the number is big enough. I think Western Michigan

(21:03):
is the significantly better team here. And you know, Kinnessas
has had a great season. They've won ten games. They
have not played in a bowl game. Western Michigan, by
the way, one and one against the spread in bowls
since twenty twenty, they are plus ten point three. But
this is a kind of a coronation for Lance Taylor

(21:25):
and company. This would be their tenth win, and I
think they're gonna get it, and I think they're gonna
cover the number. So best number I can get is
Western Michigan minus three and a half. And that's the
direction we're going. We're taking the Broncos the Union Home
Mortgage Gaspario Bowl in Tampa, Florida. Memphis against n C

(21:45):
State this one Friday, December nineteenth, one thirty pm Central
Time on ESPN. Memphis is a five and a half
point dog to the wolf Pack totally fifty seven and
a half to fifty eight. And in C State, go
on and tell you my rejected stat spread. If everybody's healthy,
if all the coaches were there, all that kind of stuff,
what at NC State favored by three point seven to two.

(22:06):
Power rating has NC State minus two point three and
my last four weeks, yes, NC State has been playing
that much better than Memphis. NC State minus eleven point
one six. So are spread right now? N C State
minus five and a half, the total was fifty eight
and a half. That has come down a little bit.
We've got quite a bit going on here. The head

(22:28):
coach Ryan Silverfield left to take the Arkansas job. Reggie Howard,
who is the defensive backs coach. He is going to
serve as the interim for the bowl game. Charles Huff
is the new head coach. He won't be involved in this.
Memphis injuries the right tackle Travis Burke he missed the finale.
Cornerbacks Denise or sorry, Dennis, I think that's how you

(22:50):
say it, and Logan, both of them last played in
weeks ten and eleven. Other than that, everybody else should
be fine. Brendan Lewis has had time to heal up.
He played injured for a good portion of the end
of the season. In C State does have some injuries.
The left guard Smith, the cornerback Johnson, linebacker Brown, and

(23:11):
the safety Barnhart. All of those I would not imagine
are going to be back for this and there are
potential opt outs here. They have not yet. But the
running back Hollywood, Smothers, defensive tackle Cleveland, cornerback Marshall, left
tackle Peak, and the tight end Justin Justin Jolie. Good gracious,

(23:33):
good gracious. Now let's pay attention to some numbers here.
In C State's offense should be fine even without Hollywood
smothers even without the tight end. Now, if the left
tackle opts out along with the left guard that's injured,
that could cause problems. But CJ. Bailey throwing the football,
especially against this Memphis pass defense, yeah, should be all right.

(23:57):
Memphis number one eighteen in passing success allowed and in
C State is number forty eight in passing success rate.
They are number thirty in QBR, number thirty four in
PPA per pass, number forty seven in yards per pass attempt.
Memphis is number one twenty one in PPA allowed per pass,
number eighty eight in yards allowed per attempt, number fifty

(24:18):
eight in QBR, and I mentioned number forty eight. In
passing success rate, Memphis is number one eighteen, so that's
not great. Not great. Now, when it comes to running
the football, NC State isn't great at it, but they
also don't do it much less than forty eight percent
of the time. That's number ninety five in rush rate,
so they throw it way more than they run it.

(24:38):
They are number thirty eight in PPA per rush, but
they are number seventy three in rushing success rate. Memphis
defense number twenty one in PPA allowed per rush, number
twenty one in rushing success allowed, So in C State,
I think would be wise not to not to run
the football a ton Here. Special teams efficiency, Memphis significantly better,

(24:59):
number seventeen special teams and NC State is number one twenty.
The talent profile significantly favores NC State here number twenty
eight in overall talent, Memphis is number seventy. And you
look at Memphis by the way, three oho to one
since twenty twenty in bowl games against the spread plus
eleven point six, n C State is one and three

(25:22):
and minus five point eight in bowl games. This is
one of those weird spots where NC State has been
playing way better. I wonder if the break actually hurt them.
Strength of schedule Memphis number one oh six, NC State
number thirty seven, that's something to consider as well. Dave

(25:42):
Dorin typically has not done well in bowl games. Ryan
Silverfield has, but Silverfield is not there, and when you've
got a coach that left, you're trying to figure out
where the motivation lies. Does Memphis feel like playing in
this game? Is NC State kind of irritated that they

(26:03):
have to go play in Tampa against the G five team?
Who knows at least Memphis is a brand that's certainly good.
N C State lost to East Carolina in their bowl
game last year. This is another American team that you're
gonna have to go up against. I don't think the
number is enough here because I think CJ. Bailey is

(26:23):
gonna have a lot of success throwing the football. The
Memphis offense, by the way, running number four in PPA
per rush. They're number seventeen in rushing success rate. NC
State is number eighty six in PPA per rush or
PPA allowed per rush, but the number twenty six in
rushing success rate. Memphis number seven in rushing explosiveness. NC

(26:44):
State's defense number ninety seven in rushing explosiveness allowed. I
think you're gonna see a ton of points. This thing
was fifty eight and a half. It's fifty seven and
a half to fifty eight now. I don't know if
Tim Cramsey is going to call the plays here for Memphis,
but I think they're still gonna be able to run

(27:05):
the football. So when it comes down to it, I
think the Memphis offense is going to be fine. I
also think NC State's gonna be able to move the
ball as well as far as finishing drives. NC State
is number ten in points per scoring opportunity. Memphis is
number ninety six and points allowed per scoring opportunity, so
NC State should be able to finish drives. On the
other side, Memphis is number fifteen in points per scoring opportunity,

(27:27):
n C State number eighty six, so I think Memphis
is going to score two. Like at some point Memphis
is the better Bowl team. Both of them have great offenses.
It feels more like a coin flip game to me
and n C State when they have played teams from

(27:49):
the American they haven't exactly fared well. I know Ryan
Silverfield is gone. I think this Memphis team is going
to play hard. INCA State has played a lot better
as of late, but getting some time off letting Brendan
Lewis hill up. I think he's gonna be fine so
long as he plays. I don't know why I wouldn't,

(28:10):
but yeah, I'll take the Tigers. I feel like this
this might be too many points. N C State could
still win the game, but there is a world with
all these explosives that I'm expecting in this game that
Memphis could certainly win a coin flip kind of game.
I'll take the Tigers plus the five and a half Monday,

(28:31):
December twenty second, the famous Idaho Potato Bowl and boyse
the Idaho one pm Central time on ESPN. That's God's
time zone, of course. And we have got Washington State
against Utah State. Utah State favored by two and a
half to three depending on the book total fifty two
and a half on this and we have got quite
a bit to go over. Utah State was favored by

(28:53):
three and a half here to open, maybe not to
open at least when the sheets were created a week ago,
right after a bowl season was announced. But right now
Utah State is favored by two and a half to three.
Jimmy Rodgers left Washington State to take the head coaching
position at Iowa State. He is not staying with the

(29:14):
team for the bowl. Could mean some opt outs, could
mean portal movement, all sorts of other stuff. We've already
got cornerback Kenny Worthy, linebacker Anthony Polano, and the backup
quarterback Jackson Potter are all in the portal. Doesn't necessarily
mean that they've opted out for this Going for this game.

(29:36):
Washington State center brock do he missed the finale, and
the wide receiver Carter perhaps last played in Week thirteen.
Utah State does not have nearly the same thing. They
do have a wide receiver Brandon Pagan, who is in
the transfer portal has not said that he's not playing
in the game though, and their tight end Brock Lane,
missed the finale, so he is injured and we'll see

(29:59):
whether or not he comes back for this one. My
projected stat spread actually had Washington State favored by point
one points. My last four weeks has Washington State by
three point six, and my power rating has Washington State
by three point seven. However, Bronckomen and Hall has Utah
State ten and two against the spread thus far this season.

(30:19):
Utah State is one and two against the spread minus
nine point two in bowls since twenty twenty. Washington State
is also one in two against the spread in bowl
games since twenty twenty. They are minus eight point two there.
So let's look at the best units that will be
on the field. That would be the Washington State defense
and the Utah State offense. Washington State's offense is pretty terrible.

(30:41):
Utah State's defense also pretty terrible. This thing at fifty
two and a half has not moved, so the total,
like my projected total on this is forty eight point
seven to six. It makes sense. Utah State number forty
eight in PPA per drive. They're good at throwing the football.
They are okay at running the football. Washington State is

(31:04):
great against the pass. They are not very good when
it comes to stopping the run. So Utah State number
eleven in rushing explosiveness, Washington State number ninety three. I
would expect Utah State to run the football a little
bit more. And if you're able to run it, then
you might be able to throw it, because you might

(31:26):
you might get those safeties up in the box a
little bit. And if you can do that, then you
can open up things for your passing game a little bit.
Washington State is number thirty four in PPA allowed for pass,
number twenty eight in yards allowed per attempt. You saw
state number fifty five and thirty four in those metrics.
When it comes to qbr Utah State number thirty eight,

(31:47):
Washington State number fifty six, and you start looking at
strength of schedule stuff like that, Uta State number sixty seven,
Washington State number fifty six. This Washington State defense kept
them in games with Virginia with ole miss James Madison
et cetera, So they've kind of been through it. Special
team's massive, massive edge to Washington State. Here Utah State

(32:09):
number one seventeen. The Cougars are number sixty one, and
as far as overall talent is concerned, Washington State number
eighty one, Utah State number one twelve, so there is
an advantage when it comes to overall talent. The offense
for Washington State is just abysmal, a number eighty nine

(32:30):
in offensive success rate. Utah State's defense is at least
number seventy seven. There they're pretty good against the pass.
That is not something that Washington State is very good at.
They throw the ball forty nine percent of the time.
That's number sixty in pass rate. They are number seventy
seven in rush rate. Eh. Utah State is good against

(32:52):
the pass, they are less than stellar against the run.
Washington State is number one twenty one in yours per rush,
number one oh one in yards allowed per rush, number
ninety four for Washington State MPPA per rush. Utah State
is number one twenty two in PPA allowed per rush.
As far as who can finish drives, Utah State is

(33:13):
number twenty two in points per scoring opportunity Washington State's
defense is number nineteen, so somebody's gonna have to break there.
Washington State number forty one in points per scoring opportunity
that's when you get a drive inside the opponent forty.
Utah States defense is number eighty one. Now the difference

(33:34):
there is Washington State is number one fourteen in points
or excuse me, in scoring opportunities per game, and Utah
State is number eighty four at allowing scoring opportunities per game.
I'm not seeing a huge difference between these two teams,
and Utah State being favored is a bit surprising. But
when you lose your head coach and there's potential opt

(33:56):
outs and all that kind of stuff, it makes all
the sense in the world. And I don't know where
the motivation would be for Washington State when it comes
down to it again. Bowl games are more about motivation,
and Utah State with Maroco Menenhall, they are trying to
build towards the future. I expect big things out of
this program. They're ten and two against the spread this year.

(34:18):
I look for that to continue. So this thing is
two and a half. I'll take Utah State minus two
and a half. I think they want to be here.
I don't know that Washington State does. Why struggle doing
everything yourself? On fiver you can hire professionals for just
about anything, marketing, editing, design and more. Save time. Get

(34:41):
it done right click the link in the description to
get started. Tuesday, December twenty third, and we have got
Bush's Boca ratone bowl have beans there we go Bocal
ratone Bowl of beans in Boco ratone in Florida, Toledo
and Louisville one pm Central Time, God's time zone on
ESPN and Louisville is an eight and a half to

(35:03):
nine and a half point favorite depending on the book
total of forty four and a half on this one
that has come down from forty six and a half.
And I will go ahead and tell you Jason Kandell
is gone, So Robert Weiner is going to serve as
the interim. Vince Carris, the defensive coordinator, is gone to Syracuse. Interesting,

(35:26):
very very interesting Toledo transfer portal. They got defensive end
Malachie Davis. There are potential opt outs. The safety Emmanuel
McNeil Warren is headed to the Senior Bowl. Cornerbacks Smith
and Fuller the running back chip train them that was
the Ohio State transfer and junior vand Ross. The third
is the wide receiver. He's gonna be out Toledo injuries.

(35:47):
You've got Carter Fouty, the left guard. He is injured,
and we don't know if he's gonna play or not.
I guess would be not, but we'll see. Louisville has
a potential doubts potentially quarterback Miller Moss, the wide receiver
Chris Bell, running back Isaac Brown, defensive end Clev Lubin.
And then you've got injuries, the wide receiver Chris Bell,

(36:10):
the running back Isaac Brown, which there's a reason why
they might adopt out of this game. Running back Keewan Brown,
running back Duke Watson, safety Antonio Watts, linebacker stan Kwan Clark.
My projected stat spread on this has Louisville minus eight.
Power rating has Louisville minus three point seven. My last

(36:31):
four weeks Toledo was playing out of their minds before
all of this happened. Now last four weeks only include
strength to schedule a little bit. Toledo number one twenty
eight in current strength to schedule, Louisville number fifty three.
Louisville did not play well until the last game of

(36:51):
the year. They were three eight and one against the spread,
but they were eight and four straight up. Toledo was
eight and four straight up. They were eight three and
one against the spread. So Toledo two and two minus
one point eight in bowl games since twenty twenty, Louisville
two and two minus one point one in bowl games
since twenty twenty. The biggest mismatch on the field is

(37:17):
going to be the Toledo offensive line against the Louisville
defensive line. Aside from that, everything else is pretty normal.
I guess like Louisville, if they don't have the running backs,
that's going to be a problem. Both of these teams
are outside the top one hundred as far as penalties

(37:37):
per game. Both are inside the top fifty and turnover margin.
They're both great at takeaways, both are both of them
can give the ball away. Toledo is number seventy nine
and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. Louisville is number fifteen
and interceptions gained per passe attempt defended. Toledo doesn't fumble

(37:59):
the ball and Louisville doesn't generate a lot of fumbles,
so you're probably gonna look for a Toledo interception at
some point. I don't know what to do with Toledo
when Jason Kandall is not the coach. He's been there
for ten years. He's been trying to get out of
that job for a while. Typically they are pretty good

(38:21):
when they are an underdog, but without Vince Garris, without
Jason Kandell and potentially the offensive coordinator, et cetera. I
don't know exactly what to expect out of this team.
Louisville significantly more as far as special teams efficiency, Toledo

(38:42):
number one oh three, Louisville number thirty five. There, Louisville
way way way massive talent advantage here number thirty seven,
and overall talent at on three Toledo number eighty six.
That Toledo defense was really good, number one in PPA
all out per drive. They are number four in defensive
success rate allowed. But man, if you're talking about cornerbacks

(39:07):
opting out, you're talking about a safety opting out, you're
talking about the defensive end. Malachi Davis in the portal
is he going to opt out? I don't feel great
about their odds against a team like Louisville, who might
want to end the season on a better note than
the way that they played down the stretch. I'll say

(39:28):
that Toledo was number three in points per scoring opportunity,
Louisville's defense number eighty three in points allowed, Louisville on
offense number forty four in points per scoring opportunity. Excuse me,
Toledo's defense was number three in points per scoring opportunity.
Points allowed per scoring opportunity, Louisville's offense is number eighty three,

(39:52):
and on the other side, Toledo's offense number fifty seven
in points per scoring opportunity, Louisville's defense number forty four.
I think that Louisville will be able to overwhelm them.
I think that's the biggest thing here. The talent difference
is going to be too great. The fact that Toledo's
coach has gone, I don't know what these players are

(40:14):
really going to be focused on. I can still get
an eight and a half. I mean, this thing was
nine and a half. It came down a little bit,
and then Jason Candell took that job. It looks like
the line has not exactly gotten up there. And so
long as this thing remains double digits. I'm going with
a favorite, give me the Louisville Cardinals minus eight and

(40:35):
a half. Also on Tuesday, December twenty third, four to
thirty pm Central Time, Guid's time zone on ESPN, We've
got the New Orleans Bowl, which is of course in
New Orleans. Western Kentucky against Southern Miss for this one.
Western Kentucky have four to four and a half point
favorite total of fifty five and a half on this one.
Both of these teams ranked outside the top one point

(40:56):
fifteen as far as current strength of schedule. Western Kentucky
pretty good football team, eight and four straight up this year.
Southern Miss seven and five, but they lost their last three.
Southern is one to zero against the spread since twenty
twenty in bowl games plus seven point five. Western Kentucky
three and two plus six point eight in bowl games,

(41:20):
so not a huge advantage either way as far as
that is concerned. Tyson Helton remains the coach at Western Kentucky.
I'm just shocked that nobody has tried to hire him away.
He is a fantastic football coach. Charles Huff left Southern
Miss to go and take the Memphis head coaching job.
Blake Anderson, the offensive coordinator there. He was hired to

(41:43):
take over as the head coach for next season, so
he will be the interim coach for the ball game.
I guess you could just say he's going to be
the head coach for the bowl game. I wouldn't expect
a whole lot to change as far as that is
concerned Western Kentucky. They do have their cornerback Dylan Flowers
in the transfer portal. That doesn't mean that he's gonna

(42:04):
sit out. They don't really have any notable injuries thus far.
Southern Miss. Their cornerback Josh Moten is a potential opt out.
They do have an injury to Blake Bustard, who is
the left tackle. Other than that, healthy teams should be good.
Southern Miss number seventy eight overall team talent, Western Kentucky

(42:24):
number eighty two. And this is an old Conference to
USA matchup that has changed a bit because Southern Miss
is now in the Sun Belt. So let's take a
look see what we got. Southern would be favored over
the last four weeks minus one point seven to seven.
Western Kentucky is my projected stats spread favorite by point

(42:45):
two three points. Western Kentucky is the power rating favorite
by two point one points, so I don't see a
ton of difference between these two teams. Southern is number
fifty six and PPA margin Western Kentucky number fifty one.
Teams on offense, but both have pretty good defenses. Southern
Miss number seventy two in PPAPRI drive on offense, Western

(43:08):
Kentucky's defense number forty eight. Western Kentucky number sixty eight
in PPAPRI drive on offense. Southern Miss is number fifty
eight on defense. As far as who can finish drives,
Southern Miss, by the way, pretty good throwing the football,
Western Kentucky is pretty good at defending it. Number that
does sixty eight in passing success rate for Southern Miss,

(43:31):
number eighteen for Western Kentucky's defense number thirty nine in
QBR for Southern Miss, Western Kentucky number twenty. Uh. There's
just you know, Southern is explosive as far as the
passing game number thirteen. Western Kentucky is number forty four,
so they do defend it fairly well. As far as
running the football, Southern Miss number one oh two in

(43:54):
yards per rush, Western Kentucky number one twenty six. Well,
you look at rushing success rate just on a down
to down basis, and Southern is number one h two
in rushing success Western Kentucky number twenty nine on defense
who can finish drives? Southern number sixty nine in points
per scoring opportunity. Western Kentucky's defense is number eleven. On

(44:15):
the other side of the ball, Western Kentucky throws it
a lot over fifty five percent of the time, but
there are number seventy in yards per pass attempt, number
twenty seven in passing success rate. Southern miss number seventy
seven in passing success rate allowed, but they're good at
a lot of other stuff number forty two and halfoc
great number thirty three in passing explosiveness allowed, they are

(44:38):
number forty one and QBR allowed, et cetera. So that
could be an interesting matchup. Western isn't great at running
the football number eighty three in yards per rush, number
eighty eight and PPA per rush, but Southern is equally
as bad defending the run, number one hundred in PBA
allowed per rush, number eighty five in rushing success, et cetera.

(44:58):
So something to pay attention to with that points for
scoring opportunity. Western Kentucky's offense number thirty three. Southern Miss
defense number ninety one. There, Western Kentucky way better as
far as just overall five factors number forty five. There,
Southern Miss is number seventy three. And yet because of
the talent rank being where it is, number seventy eight,

(45:21):
number eighty two, my projected stats spread does not have
a massive advantage for Western Kentucky here. Pace of play
Western is quick number thirty one in place per minute,
Southern Miss is faster, number eleven in place per minute.
I do think that Southern is going to be fired

(45:42):
up for Blake Anderson here, but I do think that
Western is a better overall football team. I'm just curious
about opt Out's curious about everything else. So when Charles
Huff left Marshall, everybody opted out of the ball game,
et cetera. In this situation, it doesn't look like that's
necessarily gonna be the problem. I mean, this thing got

(46:05):
up to Western Kentucky four and a half. I kind
of like Southern Miss here. Hattiesburg to New Orleans is
not that far, and I think that Southern Miss is
pretty excited about being back in a bowl game. Motivation
I think is gonna lie with Southern Miss for their
new head coach, et cetera. Western We shall see. We

(46:30):
shall see. Western was very up and down as far
as the overall season is concerned. Southern Miss was five
and six against the UH That changes a lot of things.
Western nine and two against the spread or nine to
two and one, excuse me, eight and four straight up?
Southern Miss was seven and five. I mean these numbers.

(46:54):
You know what, Western Kentucky is number twenty four in
special teams, Southern's number one oh seven. I'm gonna change
it up here. I will side with Q public and
there's a lot of favorites. I'll take Western Kentucky. Tyson
Nelton is a fantastic coach. I think Southern is gonna

(47:16):
show up here, but I think Western can can cover
the number. So I'm going against my numbers. I will
take the Hilltoppers minus the four. Don't forget to make
sure that you are subscribed to the podcast and then
you'll leave a nice five star review on whatever app
that might be. But certainly appreciate that. Along with that,

(47:36):
of course, one more time, check out Buy Me a
Coffee dot Com slash winning cures. The easy url is
BETTINGCFB dot Com five bucks a month, fifty bucks from
the year. You get some bonus content over there and
it goes to support the show. So I would appreciate
you guys helping out over there. Last game for today's show,
and this is the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas,

(47:59):
eight pm Central Time on ESPN, UNLV and Ohio and
currently UNLV is a four to four and a half
point favorite total of sixty two and a half on
this one. And my goodness, we got some things to
figure out about Ohio. One of the weirder situations that

(48:19):
is going on is the fact that the head coach,
Brian Smith is on leave, has been for a couple
of weeks now, and nobody knows why. They've said nothing.
He's going through a divorce. There's been a lot of rumors,
the school hasn't said anything. It's weird. Just all of
it's weird. As far as injuries go, UNLV tight end

(48:44):
Varkey's gums. He last played in week twelve, so he's
been out with injury. And Ohio the linebacker Michael Molnar
last played in Week nine. Other than that, you know,
Ohio their defensive coordinator John Howser is taking over as
the interim right now? What is going to be the
motivation of the team here? Like, I don't know. I

(49:08):
love Parker and Navarro. This team always seems to show
up in these spots. Ohio one one and one against
the spread in bowl games since twenty twenty, they are
plus six. UNOV is one and one against the spread
in bowl game since twenty twenty, plus one point three.

(49:30):
It's a very interesting situation. UNOV is significantly more talented here,
number seventy three in overall talent rank. Ohio is number
one twenty UNOV better on special teams number sixty four.
Ohio is number one twenty nine. The Ohio offense should
be able to put up quite a few points here.
Brian Smith does a lot on offense. He was the

(49:53):
offensive coordinator here. Scott is fording bobcat Fans. Tell me
how you say that? Tell me how to say that.
They're really good on offense. Number forty six in offensive
success rate, number thirty seven in PPA per drive. And
this UNOV defense is just bad. Number one oh two
in defensive success allowed, at number one oh eight in

(50:15):
defensive PPA allowed per drive. They're not gonna be able
to stop the run, so Ohio is going to be
able to do basically whatever they want to. Ohio is
number number one oh three in place per minute. UNLV
also a little bit slow, number eighty nine in place
per minute. The UNOV offense number twenty in PPA pri drive.

(50:39):
They're number twenty five in offensive success rate. So Dan
Mullen and Anthony Calandria have got some good stuff going here.
Looking at the UNOV offense, they are number twenty one
points per scoring opportunity. Ohio's defense is number fourteen. But
I do think UNOV is going to be able to
run the ball. They're gonna be able to move it

(51:00):
on Ohio, but Ohio gets some very timely stops. I
will say that you and LV way better. As far
as turnover margin, they are number thirty three in margin.
Ohio is number eighty one, UNLV number one thirty. In
penalties per game, Ohio number seventy nine, But UNLV is
number twenty seven in opponent penalties per game while Ohio

(51:23):
is number one twenty six. I believe that is just
a massive, massive difference special teams, net, explosiveness, everything else,
along with the fact that I don't know what Ohio's
motivation is here. This does not seem like a good

(51:45):
spot for the Bobcats, especially when you look at talent
everything else. I don't think Ohio on the lines. Yeah,
there's not like a there's really no advantage at all
for Ohio. And that's where you Andov struggled this year.
There are two losses, well, two of their three losses
are to Boise State, who had a significant advantage at

(52:05):
the line of scrimmage. Ohio doesn't have that. So when
you look at this, you're trying to break down certain
things and there's just no way to know whether or
not Ohio is going to show up for John Howser.
Maybe we know more about Brian Smith by the time
this Bowl game comes around. But as it sits nine

(52:28):
days out right now, which I'm recording this on Sunday,
December fourteenth, I'm gonna have to go with UNOV. I mean,
this number has dropped from five down to four and
a half to four. I'm gonna go the opposite way.
Give me the run of rebels minus four. Man, that's
a lot of favorites today. Good gracious that Sometimes it's

(52:50):
like that though, motivation very key factor. Give me give
me the rebels here, UNLV minus four. All right, again,
we're going over bowl games from December seventeenth through December
twenty third. The college football playoff games are on the
first bowl preview that we did, along with the Army
Navy game, et cetera, So make sure and check those
out on the channel as well. But let's recap it.

(53:12):
South Florida minus three and a half, Delaware plus three
and a half, Arkansas State minus one, Western Michigan minus
three and a half, Memphis plus five and a half,
Utah State minus two and a half, Louisville minus eight
and a half, Western Kentucky minus four, and UNLV minus four.
That is gonna wrap things up today. Don't forget buy
me coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. You can get

(53:33):
the spreadsheets over there and make sure that you are
subscribed to the channel, that you like the video, and
of course jump in the comments and give me your picks,
give me what information you got. I would love to
hear from you. With that said, oh, in the podcast
as well. Subscribe to the audio only podcast. I would
appreciate that there's more stuff over there than there is
on the YouTube channel. I tend to talk about all

(53:55):
kinds of random things that are going on in this
crazy sport because I do, in fact love the sport
of college football. It's not just a betting thing for me.
I just love the sport, although there are times that
it makes it very difficult along with all this all
this crap that's going on with the legal mumbo jumbo

(54:15):
and the coaching searches, and it gets a little crazy,
but I still do love the sport. But that said,
let's get out of here, take care of yourself, take
care of each other. God bless college football, and hopefully
all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening

(54:36):
to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
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College Football Bowl Games Dec 17-23 Spread Picks & Predictions Part 2 | 9 games!

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Bowl Games Dec 17-23 Spread Picks & Predictions Part 2 | 9 games!