December 27, 2025 • 30 mins
Picks and predictions for all four College Football Playoff quarterfinals with deep matchup analysis, betting edges, and upset potential. Gary breaks down Miami vs Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, Oregon vs Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, Alabama vs Indiana in the Rose Bowl, and Georgia vs Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl using power ratings, PPA metrics, line-of-scrimmage matchups, and postseason trends. The show wraps with semifinal projections, best bets, and where the numbers disagree with the market.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Today we're making picks and predictions on all four of
the CFP quarterfinal games. Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's
college football podcast host Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on
all the different socials, most active on X of course,
(00:20):
and if you want to reach out the old school way,
you can do that Gary at Winning curesverything dot com.
Of course, if you have not already subscribe like the video,
jump in the comments, and if you would so kindly,
I would really appreciate this, go and check out Buy
me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. You can
get all of these different spreadsheets for all the different
bowl games over there, along with bonus stats, bonus audio,
(00:44):
et cetera. I do a lot of different things over there.
So do me a favor. Go and support the show
five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year. I
would certainly appreciate that. With that said, let's not waste
a bunch of time. Let's get into the games. Game
number one, Wednesday, December thirty. First, it's new UAR's Eve.
This one six thirty pm Central Time on ESPN. Miami
(01:05):
and Ohio State are playing in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl
down in Dallas. Ohio State right now is a nine
and a half point favorite total of forty two and
a half on this one. And I'll go on and
tell you my projected stat spread has Ohio State by
about six and a half points, my power rating has
Ohio State by six point four points, and my last
(01:25):
four weeks which includes bowl games and conference title games
or whatever, has Ohio State minus twenty one and a half.
Pretty interesting numbers to me. You look at this thing,
Ohio State was favored by ten early and I get
it because Ohio State definitely the most talented team between
(01:49):
the two. Ohio State number four and overall team talent
Miami number nine, Ohio State number twenty five, and current
strength to schedule Miami number forty five. Let's look at
position breakdown. First, Miami number seven offensive line against Ohio
State number six defensive line. Ohio State number nine offensive
line against Miami number one defensive line. So the line
(02:13):
of scrimmage battle is going to be massive here. Ohio
State number forty three running back position, Miami number twenty
four opposing linebacker. Excuse me, skill talent for Ohio State
number three back seven for Miami is number fourteen on
the other side, Miami number fifteen, running backs Ohio State
(02:36):
number one, linebackers Miami number seven, and skill talent Ohio
State number one in opposing back seven. So both of
these teams have a little bit of an advantage whenever
they are on defense, which would explain why the total
was it forty two and a half. Now sitting still
forty two and a half, still sitting around that key
(02:57):
number there makes all.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
The sense in the world. So let's get into it.
Just to touch.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
When Ohio State has the ball, they are number one
in PPA per pass, number fifty nine in PPA per rush.
So the question is going to be whether or not
Ohio State can throw the ball on Miami. Miami number
nine and have it great creator Ohio State is number
five and havoc allowed.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
That's going to be huge.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Can they protect Julian Sayan because Indiana was able to
rattle them a little bit. Now, Ohio State was not
able to finish drives against Indiana. Can they do that
against Miami. Miami's defense number four in points allowed per
scoring opportunity. Ohio State is number three on the season
in points per scoring opportunity.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
The problem for Ohio.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
State is there are number seventy three in scoring opportunities
per game, so they do rely on some explosive plays.
Their number forty five in passing explosiveness, number sixteen in
rushing explosiveness. Miami is really good against both of those.
Number ten in passing explosiveness allowed and number thirty four
in rushing explosiveness allowed. So interesting battle that we're going
(04:01):
to see. Whenever Ohio State has the ball, will they
be able to throw it on Miami on the other
side when Miami's got the ball Number eight and PPA
per pass Ohio State number seven in PPA allowed per pass,
Miami number seventy eight PPA per rush, but they are
number thirty nine in offensive line yards number seventeen and
stuff right. They're number thirty six in rushing success rate.
(04:23):
But Ohio State's defense number six in PPA allowed per rush,
number six in rushing success number eighteen in offensive lineyards allowed,
number twenty two, and stuff rate allowed. Again, very interesting
to see who's going to be able to do what.
Carson Beck probably going to be able to have some
success against this defensive line, but it all relies on
whether or not Miami is able to run the football
(04:44):
against this defensive line.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
For Ohio State.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Looking at the pace of play, both of these teams
play really, really slow. Again, it's a low total for
a reason. Ohio State number one thirty six in pace
of play, so it plays per minute, Miami number one
twenty seven. Miami has a special teams advantage number thirty
eight in special team's efficiency per sp plus Ohio State
number sixty four. And when you start looking at red
(05:10):
zone conversion all that kind of stuff, Miami number twenty
seven offensive red zone touchdown rate. Ohio State's defense is
number two. Ohio State's offense number thirty five in offensive
red zone touchdown rate. Miami's defense is number twenty nine.
Miami is a really good football team. This feels like
a ton of points again, Ohio State last four weeks
(05:32):
minus twenty one and a half ish, But when you
look at projected stats, power rating, et cetera, all of
them have this as less than a touchdown. I know
Ohio States had plenty of time off Miami, a lot
of confidence building last week with a win at Texas
A and m I look at this the five factors
(05:53):
rank raw five factors, Miami number three, Ohio State number five.
I think this is going to be a tight game.
I do think Ohio State wins the game, but I
think it's close. I think it is a close, close ballgame.
I will take Miami plus nine and a half to
keep this thing really within one score and an outside
(06:14):
shot of winning the football game. Capitol One Orange Bowl
is going to see the Oregon Ducks and the Texas
Tech Red Raiders. Oregon right now a one and a
half to two and a half point favorite with a
total of fifty two and a half on this It's
eleven am on New Year's Day on ESPN at Central time,
of course God's time zone, and good gracious nine am
(06:34):
body clock game for Oregon. They got the late game
with James Madison and now they've got the early game
on New Year's Day at nine am Oregon time. So
just bananas when you really think about it. Overall team
talent Texas Tech number twenty three, Oregon number seven. And
when you look at position groups, we'll start out on
(06:56):
this Texas Tech number twenty one offensive line, Oregon's defensive
lineumber fifty four. Interesting battle there, Texas Tek number fifty
nine running backs against the number five linebackers for Oregon
number thirteen. In skill talent for Texas Tech, number four
defensive back seven for Oregon. On the other side of
(07:16):
the ball, Oregon number three offensive line against the number
two defensive line in the country. Number seventy running backs
for Oregon against the number four linebackers Oregon number twenty
two in skill talent Texas Tech number nine in defensive
back seven. I mean, we're talking an interesting interesting spot here.
(07:39):
Let's talk about strengthen schedule. Texas Tech number fifty four.
They have been crushing teams, but they are so much
better than everybody that was on their schedule. You didn't
see any non conference games to really give you an
idea of what this Texas Tech team looks like against
everybody else. So I'm not sure exactly how to quantify that.
Against a big twelve schedule like BYU was good, but
(08:02):
we all know BYU had limitations. Texas Tech lost to
Arizona State. I still don't understand how that happened. Oregon,
their only loss was to Indiana. My projected stat spread
has Texas Tech by two. My power rating has Oregon
by two. The last four weeks has Texas Tech minus
seven point eight. Again, you can try an opponent adjust
(08:27):
all you want to, but until you actually see it,
I don't really know what to make of.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
It is what it is.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Special teams Oregon has a has an advantage here number
twenty two in special teams efficiency, Texas Tech number forty two.
Let's talk about finishing drives. Oregon's defense number eighty nine
in points allowed per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech is number
thirty four, but Texas Tech is number one in scoring
opportunities per game Oregon number forty five. So this Oregon
(08:56):
defense number seventeen in defensive success rate, the number forty
seven against the run, Texas Tech is not great at
running the football by any stretch. The number forty six
in ppaper rush Oregon's defense number forty eight, Texas Tech
number fifty seven. And rushing success Oregon number forty seven.
Offensive line yards Texas Tech number ninety three.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
They are number one oh five.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
And stuff rate allowed Oregon number forty five and offensive
line yards allowed number one thirteen in stuff rate. Very
interesting just when you look at it overall, right, Oregon
really good.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Against the pass.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Texas Tech doesn't throw it all that often forty seven
and a half, but that is what they are best at.
If Oregon can put the clamps on the passing game.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
I don't know that.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
I trust Texas Tech to be able to run the football,
and if you can't score, then he can't win. So now, granted,
there was a part of this where Baron Morton was
out for a little while and the backup is no
longer in Who knows what could happen there on the
other side of the ball when Oregon has it. Oregon
is really good at running the football. Number three in
(09:59):
PBA per rush, umber two in yards per rush. They're
number three in rushing success rate. Texas Techs defense number one,
number one and number three in those offensive line yards
Oregon number thirteen. Stuff rate number twenty seven. Texas Tech
is number seventeen in stuff rate on defense and number
two in offensive line yards allowed.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Can Oregon finish drives.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech
number five in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Interesting interesting spot.
Texas Tech is number one in five Factors Rank Raw
five factors. Oregon is number seven here, Texas Tech eleven
and two against the spread this year, I mean, just bananas.
Oregon seven and five against the spread was seven to
(10:44):
five and.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
One against one of those was an FCS team.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
When you look at the Bulls, Texas Tech three and
one against the spread plus fourteen and a half, Oregon
one and five against the spread minus five and a half.
When you look at bowl records against the spread or
postseason against the spread, Really, Oregon is really good offensively,
more so running it than passing it. And when you
(11:08):
look at the passes, I mean, they're number sixty five
in passing success, but they're number two in passing explosiveness.
Teams have to throw the ball on Texas Tech. It's
almost fifty six percent of the time they are defending
a pass, and most of that is because they've gotten
such a huge lead that teams have to throw it.
I'm curious whether or not Oregon is going to have
(11:28):
as many problems with this secondary as some might think.
Turnover margin, Texas Tech is number two, they are number
one in takeaways per game. Oregon is number fourteen and
giveaways per game and number sixty four in takeaways per game.
I don't think that the turnovers in the second half
against James Madison really mattered. I mean, obviously they won
(11:50):
the game anyway, but it is a bit concerning because
if you're able to get pressure on Dante More, he
might give you the football.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
I mean, just the way it goes.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Texas Tech's offense number ninety eight in offensive red zone
touchdown rate. Oregon's defense is number one twenty in defensive
red zone touchdown rate. Just kind of shocking. If Texas
Tech gets down there, I think they're going to be
able to score. When you break it all down, I
think Oregon is more battle tested than Texas Tech. This
(12:24):
is a huge spot that the majority of these kids
on this Texas Tech roster have not been in. I
think it's going to be a tight game. Texas Tech
has not been in many tight games. I'm gonna trust Oregon.
There's a reason why Texas Tech was favored to start.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Obviously. You look at the numbers.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Texas Tech minus one point nine to four, Texas Tech
minus seven point eight two over the last four weeks
power rating. I've got Oregon by two. The best number
that I can get on this is Oregon minus one
and a half. I know it's a nine am body
clock game, I get all that. But they are gonna
be ready. It's gonna be New Year's Day. They will
be prepared for this. I trust Organ, I trust their roster.
(13:03):
I think they've been battle tested. I don't think Texas
Tech has. And when you get into a tight game situation,
that staff for Texas Tech has not been through it
the way that Organ has. I will take the Ducks.
Give me Oregon minus one and a half. I think
they win the game. I think they cover the number,
and I think that we will see them in the
(13:25):
Peach Bowl on January the ninth. Are you tired of
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(13:48):
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Speaker 2 (14:00):
Get back to the games.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
The Rose Bowl New Year's Day, three pm Central Time,
God's time Zone on ESPN. We got the Alabama Crimson
Tide taking on the Indiana Hoosiers and Indiana right.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Now six and a half point.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Yeah, six and a half point to seven point favorite,
depending on which book you get it, and a total
of forty eight and a half on this one. Lots
of notes here, nothing too crazy. Defensive end Stephen Daily,
who leads Indiana in tackles for loss, has nineteen and
a half and he is third in sacks for Indiana
(14:37):
with five and a half this year. He's the Kent
State transfer that really kind of exploded onto the scene.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
He had eleven.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Tackles for loss in the last four games for Indiana.
He is out, I believe for the rest of the season.
They're still trying to figure out exactly what that's going
to look like.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
But he has a knee injury, so he's going to
be out.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Alabama defensive lineman LT Overton is back healthy, so he
will be playing in this game as well. That is
a huge addition for Alabama when you look at when
you look at overall position groups right team talent, Alabama
is number one per on three overall team talent, Indiana
number forty eight. When you look at position groups, Indiana
(15:23):
number fourteen offensive line against Alabama number eight defensive line,
Indiana number thirteen running backs against Alabama number ten linebackers,
and Indiana number ten skill position against Alabama number five
defensive back seven. On the other side, Bama number five
in offensive line against number fifteen defensive line for Indiana
(15:47):
number thirty three running backs against number nineteen linebackers for Indiana,
and Bama number twenty seven in skill talent against number
eight defensive back seven for Indiana. So DiAngelo pines, all
that bunch they're gonna be good to go against. We
really don't know exactly what the wide receiver corp is
going to look like Isaiah Horton, Jeremy Bernard, Lazier Brooks
(16:10):
that much. And then Ryan Williams is kind of a crapshoot,
like the most drops in FBS this year. I'm not
sure exactly what he's going to look like. But even still,
when you look at strength of schedule, Alabama number six,
Indiana number twenty eight, and that is weighed heavily by
facing Oregon on the road in Ohio State in the
Big Ten Championship game. But you also did have a
(16:32):
game at Iowa at Penn State right. This is of
course neutral site is what it is.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
I told you.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Indiana favored by six and a half or seven depending
on the book total of forty eight and a half.
That total has not moved. Indiana minus seven was there
when I created the sheet the day after the CFB
first round. Indiana power rated. I've got him by three
over Obama. Over the last four weeks, I've got Indiana
(17:00):
minus one point four to seven. But the projected stat
spread has Indiana minus ten point six to three. So
if you're just looking at stats from the season, Indiana
has been way better than Alabama, way way better. Special
teams efficiency Indiana number thirty nine, Alabama number one oh eight.
Let's go with Indiana having the football first okay, number
(17:23):
two in PPA per pass, number eleven in PPA per rush.
They do everything well. They run the ball almost fifty
eight percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
When they throw it. They're gonna have.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Some problems against this Alabama defense.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Right.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Alabama is number twenty three and HAVOC created Indiana number eight,
and Havoc allowed passing explosiveness Indiana's number nine, Alabama number four,
Indiana number two and passing success rate Alabama number twenty eight.
Fernando Mendoza, Heisman Trophy winner. Mendoza six touchdowns, five interceptions
against the top four defenses that he faced. Seven his
(18:00):
thirty three touchdowns were against Kennessas State, Perdue, et cetera. Right,
but against the top four defenses Ohio State, Iowa, Oregon,
and I want to say Maryland had sixty ds five interceptions.
Didn't look great. QBR was not good, but his QBR
(18:22):
on the season best in the country one e four.
He was number one in QBR. Bama's defense number thirty
one in QBR allowed. As far as running the football,
Indiana is going to want to run the football, They
run it again almost fifty eight percent of the time.
Number four in rushing success rate, Bama's number fifteen in
(18:45):
rushing success allowed Indiana.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Number eleven in.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
PBA per rush Alabama number forty six and PBA allowed
per rush. Indiana is number four in points for scoring opportunity.
Bama is number forty four. Interesting numbers. Interesting numbers. On
the other side of the ball, Bama cannot run the football.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
They just can't.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
There are certain moments where they can, but there are
Number one twenty five in yards per rush. Indiana's defense
is number ten in yards allowed per rush. Bama is
number ninety three in rusting success. Indiana's defense is number four.
It's not great. There's nothing you can really do to
fix it at this point. I think part of it
is scheme. I think the other part of it is
maybe the actual running backs are not great. So is
(19:31):
what it is raw five factors, Indiana's number two, Alabama
number twenty two. Five factors plus talent. However, Indiana drops
to number eleven. Alabama is number two now that his
opponent adjusted that his talent infused, et cetera. So Bama
has been tested significantly. Points per scoring opportunity for Bama's
(19:51):
offense number thirty one, Indiana number one in points allowed
per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Indiana number four
in points per scoreoring opportunity. Alabama's defense number forty four
in points allowed for scoring opportunity, penalties, turnovers, all of
that heavily in Indiana's favorite. This Indiana team is fantastic,
(20:13):
there's a reason why they are undefeated, but power rating wise,
when you look at just overall team talent, et cetera,
Indiana has not been a favorite against the team that
is significantly more talented other than when they were the
favorite against Penn State, and this was not a good
Penn State team. Granted it was on the road, but
(20:37):
they had to fight to the nail to come back
and win that ballgame. They were a fourteen to fourteen
and a half point favorite somewhere around there won the
game by three on a last second touchdown pass. I
think Alabama is going to be as healthy as they
have been all season in this game, and I do
believe that it is going to be a tight, tight ballgame,
(21:00):
tighter than seven points. So I am of the belief
that we are going to see an upset somewhere in
this first round. I think the loss of Stephen Daley
is huge. I think the fact that Mendoza has not
played well against really good defenses, and Bama does, in
fact have a pretty good defense. They're number fourteen a
(21:20):
defensive success rate. By the way, Ty Simpson looked like
his old self last week, so if you can give
him any kind of protection, he's gonna be able to
hit those wide receivers. I get the feeling that this
is where we're going to see the upset, and I
know a bunch of you think that I'm crazy, but
this just feels like one of those, because I mean,
(21:43):
I'm not gonna lie. Indiana fans are talking a lot
more than I've ever heard them talk, even heading into
the Ohio State game, heading into a bunch of games,
but this is what two years of unprecedented success.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Will do for a football program.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
I think Bamo wins the game, and if they don't,
I think it's super close. But I am expecting a
classic in the Rose Bowl. Kaitlin de Bore really good
in big time games like this. I'm expecting more of
the same from him. Not the Oklahoma game in the
middle of the year, not the Georgia game in the
SEC Championship where they were all banged up. Bama's going
(22:21):
to be super healthy, Indiana missing a key piece on
the defensive line. I think Bamo wins the game, so
I will take the best number, which is seven. So
give me Alabama plus seven, and I think Bama goes
on to face Oregon in the Peach Bowl on January ninth,
the Strigger Bowl on New Year's Day night, this one
at seven pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN,
(22:45):
Ole Miss and Georgia, and that is the Layne kiffenless
ole Miss Rebels against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia right now
is six and a half point favorite total of fifty
six and a half on this one interesting interesting spot here.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
Let's start off with this.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
The projected stat spread that I've got has Georgia minus
five and a half. My power rating has Georgia minus four.
The last four weeks has Georgia minus three point nine
to three, so about four points. And yet in a
game like this, I fully think that not having Lane
Kiffen around for those very important play calls is a huge,
(23:26):
huge deal. Pete Golding has had success against Georgia in
the past when he was at Alabama. Granted, he did
have a lot of success against Georgia last year in
Oxford as the defensive coordinator. But this Georgia team seems
to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Georgia number
twenty two in PPA margin, ole Miss is number twelve.
When you look at team talent, Georgia number two, ole
(23:48):
Miss number twenty one special teams efficiency both are inside
the top five. I mean, this is just a monster
monster matchup. When you look at position groups, Georgia number
twelve offensive line against the number twenty nine defensive line
for all Miss, ole Miss number thirty one offensive line
against the number forty four defensive line for Georgia. Georgia
(24:08):
number twenty seven running backs against number twenty two linebackers
for ole Miss, Georgia number twenty four skilled position talent
against number twenty opposing back seven for ole Miss, ole
Miss number twenty eight running backs against number twenty one
opponent linebackers for Georgia and ole Miss number eight skill
talent against Georgia number eleven defensive back seven Keywan Lacey.
(24:33):
How injured is that shoulder? How injured is he?
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Very curious?
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Their trendadad Chambliss came back and played, he should be fine.
I would think both of these teams like Georgia four
and three against the spread since twenty twenty in bowl games,
Ole Miss four and two against the spread since twenty
twenty in bowl games Georgia plus twelve and a half,
ole Miss plus four point three. So both play above
expectation in bowl matchups or postseason matchups. When Georgia has
(25:00):
the football number six in points per scoring opportunity, ole
Miss's defense is number sixteen, but ole Miss allows the
ninety seventh the most scoring opportunities per game. Georgia's number
sixty seven is scoring opportunities per game. Georgia has gotten
better at running the football as the season has gone on,
but they are number sixty one and rushing are passing
(25:20):
success rate.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
Excuse me.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
They are number to thirty seven in rushing success rate,
ole Miss number seventy in rushing success allowed. Ole Miss
not great at stopping the run. I think George is
gonna be able to run the football quite a bit
here as far as passing the ball. Gunnar Stockton had
a career day against ole Miss earlier this year. Now,
granted that was in Athens. This one in the Sugar
(25:43):
Bowl in New Orleans.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
It's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
This is like a home away from home for ole
Miss fans, So I would expect to see a lot
of ole Miss fans in Louisiana for this. It's kind
of funny that it's happening in Louisiana, right, is what
it is. Ole Miss number seven in PBA per pass,
they are number thirty eight in PPAPRI rush number eighty
three on offensive line yards number ninety four, and stuff
rate allowed Georgia's number eleven, offensive line yards allowed number
(26:08):
thirty five and stuff rate rushing success ole Miss number
thirty nine. Georgia is number eight and rushing success allowed.
So Georgia has gotten better against the run. Ole Miss
better at passing the football. Georgia has not been great
at defending the pass this year. Georgia only number seventy
nine and have it great created ole Miss number thirty
(26:31):
seven and have it allowed? Can ole Miss throw the
ball enough in this game to be able to Are
they going to go explosive? Because they are number six
in passing explosiveness. Georgia is number nineteen. The problem for
Georgia is their number fifty one in passing success allowed.
Ole Miss is number five. So can ole Miss take
(26:53):
the running game and use the passing game enough to
hold on to the football to keep it away from
Georgia because I think george is gonna run it and
keep it.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Away from ole Miss.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Ole Miss number twelve in place per minute, so they
play fast up tempo. Georgia number one oh three in
place permitted, so they play pretty slow. Ole Miss as
far as points per scoring opportunity number nine. The Georgia
defense is number seventy in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
Georgia number thirty nine. Defensive red zone touchdown rate, ole
(27:25):
Miss's offense is number fifty nine. There, Georgia is number
two an offensive red zone touchdown rate, ole Miss number
thirty seven.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
That is a big one.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Five factors rank just raw five factors. Georgia sixteen, ole
Miss number seventeen. But when you toss in talent and
you toss an opponent adjustment, george is number four, ole
Miss is number nineteen. I think this is going to
be a big spot for Georgia. I think they are
peaking at the right moment. I think that ole Miss
(27:57):
this is where not having lane Keivin will bite you.
And it took a long time because I mean it
was still Thanksgiving when he decided he was going to LSU.
But this is a massive, massive spot. Current strength to
schedule Georgia fifteen, ole Miss that huge gauntlet of an
SEC schedule. They are number forty one in current strength
(28:19):
to schedule. They played two real games all year, one
at Oklahoma, lost at Georgia. I think Georgia handles them,
and I think they handle them by significantly more than
a touchdown. I say significantly more. I'll just say more
than a touchdown. So I'm gonna take the dogs to win.
I'm gonna take the dogs to cover. Give me Georgia
(28:40):
minus six and a half here, and I think Georgia
will go on to face Ohio State in what the
Fiesta Bowl?
Speaker 2 (28:49):
Is that right?
Speaker 1 (28:50):
So Georgia Ohio State in one semi final and Alabama
and Oregon in the other semi final.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
All right, let's recap the numbers that we got here.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Miami plus nine and a half, Oregon minus one and
a half, Alabama plus seven, and Georgia minus six and
a half. That is gonna give us on January the eighth,
Georgia against Ohio State and on January the ninth, Alabama
against Oregon. The college I'm expecting at least one upset.
I think Bama's gonna be the one. You guys, correct
(29:20):
me if I'm wrong. I would love to hear it
in the comments. Go ahead, like the video, subscribe to
the channel, jump in the comments. Tell me why you
think I'm crazy, because I know a lot.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Of you do.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
But when you look at these two teams, when you
look at these eight teams, this is how I'm seeing it,
So buy me coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
What else?
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Oh, the audio podcast? Subscribe to that. We moved over
to a new host. Tell me how you like it
over there so far. I think we're good. I feel
like it's a upgrade, so I'm a fan of it.
But obviously we shall see. But subscribe to the channel.
I would love to hear from all of you. We
have another Bowl video coming out soon, so make sure
(30:04):
that you check that thing out. But for now, this
is the CFP Quarterfinals and we'll have another one for
the semi finals right after those bowl games. So with
that said, take care of yourself, take care of each other.
God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets
cash this week.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
Speaker 1 (30:25):
Subscribe, leave a review or comment, follow at Gary WCE
on x, and check out the web store.
Today we're making picks and predictions on all four of
the CFP quarterfinal games. Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's
college football podcast host Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on
all the different socials, most active on X of course,
(00:20):
and if you want to reach out the old school way,
you can do that Gary at Winning curesverything dot com.
Of course, if you have not already subscribe like the video,
jump in the comments, and if you would so kindly,
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(00:44):
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So do me a favor. Go and support the show
five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year. I
would certainly appreciate that. With that said, let's not waste
a bunch of time. Let's get into the games. Game
number one, Wednesday, December thirty. First, it's new UAR's Eve.
This one six thirty pm Central Time on ESPN. Miami
(01:05):
and Ohio State are playing in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl
down in Dallas. Ohio State right now is a nine
and a half point favorite total of forty two and
a half on this one. And I'll go on and
tell you my projected stat spread has Ohio State by
about six and a half points, my power rating has
Ohio State by six point four points, and my last
(01:25):
four weeks which includes bowl games and conference title games
or whatever, has Ohio State minus twenty one and a half.
Pretty interesting numbers to me. You look at this thing,
Ohio State was favored by ten early and I get
it because Ohio State definitely the most talented team between
(01:49):
the two. Ohio State number four and overall team talent
Miami number nine, Ohio State number twenty five, and current
strength to schedule Miami number forty five. Let's look at
position breakdown. First, Miami number seven offensive line against Ohio
State number six defensive line. Ohio State number nine offensive
line against Miami number one defensive line. So the line
(02:13):
of scrimmage battle is going to be massive here. Ohio
State number forty three running back position, Miami number twenty
four opposing linebacker. Excuse me, skill talent for Ohio State
number three back seven for Miami is number fourteen on
the other side, Miami number fifteen, running backs Ohio State
(02:36):
number one, linebackers Miami number seven, and skill talent Ohio
State number one in opposing back seven. So both of
these teams have a little bit of an advantage whenever
they are on defense, which would explain why the total
was it forty two and a half. Now sitting still
forty two and a half, still sitting around that key
(02:57):
number there makes all.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
The sense in the world. So let's get into it.
Just to touch.
Speaker 1 (03:01):
When Ohio State has the ball, they are number one
in PPA per pass, number fifty nine in PPA per rush.
So the question is going to be whether or not
Ohio State can throw the ball on Miami. Miami number
nine and have it great creator Ohio State is number
five and havoc allowed.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
That's going to be huge.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Can they protect Julian Sayan because Indiana was able to
rattle them a little bit. Now, Ohio State was not
able to finish drives against Indiana. Can they do that
against Miami. Miami's defense number four in points allowed per
scoring opportunity. Ohio State is number three on the season
in points per scoring opportunity.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
The problem for Ohio.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
State is there are number seventy three in scoring opportunities
per game, so they do rely on some explosive plays.
Their number forty five in passing explosiveness, number sixteen in
rushing explosiveness. Miami is really good against both of those.
Number ten in passing explosiveness allowed and number thirty four
in rushing explosiveness allowed. So interesting battle that we're going
(04:01):
to see. Whenever Ohio State has the ball, will they
be able to throw it on Miami on the other
side when Miami's got the ball Number eight and PPA
per pass Ohio State number seven in PPA allowed per pass,
Miami number seventy eight PPA per rush, but they are
number thirty nine in offensive line yards number seventeen and
stuff right. They're number thirty six in rushing success rate.
(04:23):
But Ohio State's defense number six in PPA allowed per rush,
number six in rushing success number eighteen in offensive lineyards allowed,
number twenty two, and stuff rate allowed. Again, very interesting
to see who's going to be able to do what.
Carson Beck probably going to be able to have some
success against this defensive line, but it all relies on
whether or not Miami is able to run the football
(04:44):
against this defensive line.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
For Ohio State.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
Looking at the pace of play, both of these teams
play really, really slow. Again, it's a low total for
a reason. Ohio State number one thirty six in pace
of play, so it plays per minute, Miami number one
twenty seven. Miami has a special teams advantage number thirty
eight in special team's efficiency per sp plus Ohio State
number sixty four. And when you start looking at red
(05:10):
zone conversion all that kind of stuff, Miami number twenty
seven offensive red zone touchdown rate. Ohio State's defense is
number two. Ohio State's offense number thirty five in offensive
red zone touchdown rate. Miami's defense is number twenty nine.
Miami is a really good football team. This feels like
a ton of points again, Ohio State last four weeks
(05:32):
minus twenty one and a half ish, But when you
look at projected stats, power rating, et cetera, all of
them have this as less than a touchdown. I know
Ohio States had plenty of time off Miami, a lot
of confidence building last week with a win at Texas
A and m I look at this the five factors
(05:53):
rank raw five factors, Miami number three, Ohio State number five.
I think this is going to be a tight game.
I do think Ohio State wins the game, but I
think it's close. I think it is a close, close ballgame.
I will take Miami plus nine and a half to
keep this thing really within one score and an outside
(06:14):
shot of winning the football game. Capitol One Orange Bowl
is going to see the Oregon Ducks and the Texas
Tech Red Raiders. Oregon right now a one and a
half to two and a half point favorite with a
total of fifty two and a half on this It's
eleven am on New Year's Day on ESPN at Central time,
of course God's time zone, and good gracious nine am
(06:34):
body clock game for Oregon. They got the late game
with James Madison and now they've got the early game
on New Year's Day at nine am Oregon time. So
just bananas when you really think about it. Overall team
talent Texas Tech number twenty three, Oregon number seven. And
when you look at position groups, we'll start out on
(06:56):
this Texas Tech number twenty one offensive line, Oregon's defensive
lineumber fifty four. Interesting battle there, Texas Tek number fifty
nine running backs against the number five linebackers for Oregon
number thirteen. In skill talent for Texas Tech, number four
defensive back seven for Oregon. On the other side of
(07:16):
the ball, Oregon number three offensive line against the number
two defensive line in the country. Number seventy running backs
for Oregon against the number four linebackers Oregon number twenty
two in skill talent Texas Tech number nine in defensive
back seven. I mean, we're talking an interesting interesting spot here.
(07:39):
Let's talk about strengthen schedule. Texas Tech number fifty four.
They have been crushing teams, but they are so much
better than everybody that was on their schedule. You didn't
see any non conference games to really give you an
idea of what this Texas Tech team looks like against
everybody else. So I'm not sure exactly how to quantify that.
Against a big twelve schedule like BYU was good, but
(08:02):
we all know BYU had limitations. Texas Tech lost to
Arizona State. I still don't understand how that happened. Oregon,
their only loss was to Indiana. My projected stat spread
has Texas Tech by two. My power rating has Oregon
by two. The last four weeks has Texas Tech minus
seven point eight. Again, you can try an opponent adjust
(08:27):
all you want to, but until you actually see it,
I don't really know what to make of.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
It is what it is.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Special teams Oregon has a has an advantage here number
twenty two in special teams efficiency, Texas Tech number forty two.
Let's talk about finishing drives. Oregon's defense number eighty nine
in points allowed per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech is number
thirty four, but Texas Tech is number one in scoring
opportunities per game Oregon number forty five. So this Oregon
(08:56):
defense number seventeen in defensive success rate, the number forty
seven against the run, Texas Tech is not great at
running the football by any stretch. The number forty six
in ppaper rush Oregon's defense number forty eight, Texas Tech
number fifty seven. And rushing success Oregon number forty seven.
Offensive line yards Texas Tech number ninety three.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
They are number one oh five.
Speaker 1 (09:17):
And stuff rate allowed Oregon number forty five and offensive
line yards allowed number one thirteen in stuff rate. Very
interesting just when you look at it overall, right, Oregon
really good.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
Against the pass.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Texas Tech doesn't throw it all that often forty seven
and a half, but that is what they are best at.
If Oregon can put the clamps on the passing game.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
I don't know that.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
I trust Texas Tech to be able to run the football,
and if you can't score, then he can't win. So now, granted,
there was a part of this where Baron Morton was
out for a little while and the backup is no
longer in Who knows what could happen there on the
other side of the ball when Oregon has it. Oregon
is really good at running the football. Number three in
(09:59):
PBA per rush, umber two in yards per rush. They're
number three in rushing success rate. Texas Techs defense number one,
number one and number three in those offensive line yards
Oregon number thirteen. Stuff rate number twenty seven. Texas Tech
is number seventeen in stuff rate on defense and number
two in offensive line yards allowed.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Can Oregon finish drives.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech
number five in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Interesting interesting spot.
Texas Tech is number one in five Factors Rank Raw
five factors. Oregon is number seven here, Texas Tech eleven
and two against the spread this year, I mean, just bananas.
Oregon seven and five against the spread was seven to
(10:44):
five and.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
One against one of those was an FCS team.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
When you look at the Bulls, Texas Tech three and
one against the spread plus fourteen and a half, Oregon
one and five against the spread minus five and a half.
When you look at bowl records against the spread or
postseason against the spread, Really, Oregon is really good offensively,
more so running it than passing it. And when you
(11:08):
look at the passes, I mean, they're number sixty five
in passing success, but they're number two in passing explosiveness.
Teams have to throw the ball on Texas Tech. It's
almost fifty six percent of the time they are defending
a pass, and most of that is because they've gotten
such a huge lead that teams have to throw it.
I'm curious whether or not Oregon is going to have
(11:28):
as many problems with this secondary as some might think.
Turnover margin, Texas Tech is number two, they are number
one in takeaways per game. Oregon is number fourteen and
giveaways per game and number sixty four in takeaways per game.
I don't think that the turnovers in the second half
against James Madison really mattered. I mean, obviously they won
(11:50):
the game anyway, but it is a bit concerning because
if you're able to get pressure on Dante More, he
might give you the football.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
I mean, just the way it goes.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
Texas Tech's offense number ninety eight in offensive red zone
touchdown rate. Oregon's defense is number one twenty in defensive
red zone touchdown rate. Just kind of shocking. If Texas
Tech gets down there, I think they're going to be
able to score. When you break it all down, I
think Oregon is more battle tested than Texas Tech. This
(12:24):
is a huge spot that the majority of these kids
on this Texas Tech roster have not been in. I
think it's going to be a tight game. Texas Tech
has not been in many tight games. I'm gonna trust Oregon.
There's a reason why Texas Tech was favored to start.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Obviously. You look at the numbers.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
Texas Tech minus one point nine to four, Texas Tech
minus seven point eight two over the last four weeks
power rating. I've got Oregon by two. The best number
that I can get on this is Oregon minus one
and a half. I know it's a nine am body
clock game, I get all that. But they are gonna
be ready. It's gonna be New Year's Day. They will
be prepared for this. I trust Organ, I trust their roster.
(13:03):
I think they've been battle tested. I don't think Texas
Tech has. And when you get into a tight game situation,
that staff for Texas Tech has not been through it
the way that Organ has. I will take the Ducks.
Give me Oregon minus one and a half. I think
they win the game. I think they cover the number,
and I think that we will see them in the
(13:25):
Peach Bowl on January the ninth. Are you tired of
sore knees or joints slowing you down? Ghost Leaves uses
built in kinesiology tape technology to give you support, reduce pain,
and help you recover faster. Use codewce for fifteen percent
off over at ghost leaves dot com. If you haven't
already subscribed to the channel, like the video, and of course,
(13:48):
jump in the comments. Let me know your picks on
these games. Give me some news. If there's something that
I have not heard, I would love to hear from you. Also,
don't forget buy me a coffee. Dot com slash winning cures.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Get back to the games.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
The Rose Bowl New Year's Day, three pm Central Time,
God's time Zone on ESPN. We got the Alabama Crimson
Tide taking on the Indiana Hoosiers and Indiana right.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Now six and a half point.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
Yeah, six and a half point to seven point favorite,
depending on which book you get it, and a total
of forty eight and a half on this one. Lots
of notes here, nothing too crazy. Defensive end Stephen Daily,
who leads Indiana in tackles for loss, has nineteen and
a half and he is third in sacks for Indiana
(14:37):
with five and a half this year. He's the Kent
State transfer that really kind of exploded onto the scene.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
He had eleven.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Tackles for loss in the last four games for Indiana.
He is out, I believe for the rest of the season.
They're still trying to figure out exactly what that's going
to look like.
Speaker 2 (14:58):
But he has a knee injury, so he's going to
be out.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Alabama defensive lineman LT Overton is back healthy, so he
will be playing in this game as well. That is
a huge addition for Alabama when you look at when
you look at overall position groups right team talent, Alabama
is number one per on three overall team talent, Indiana
number forty eight. When you look at position groups, Indiana
(15:23):
number fourteen offensive line against Alabama number eight defensive line,
Indiana number thirteen running backs against Alabama number ten linebackers,
and Indiana number ten skill position against Alabama number five
defensive back seven. On the other side, Bama number five
in offensive line against number fifteen defensive line for Indiana
(15:47):
number thirty three running backs against number nineteen linebackers for Indiana,
and Bama number twenty seven in skill talent against number
eight defensive back seven for Indiana. So DiAngelo pines, all
that bunch they're gonna be good to go against. We
really don't know exactly what the wide receiver corp is
going to look like Isaiah Horton, Jeremy Bernard, Lazier Brooks
(16:10):
that much. And then Ryan Williams is kind of a crapshoot,
like the most drops in FBS this year. I'm not
sure exactly what he's going to look like. But even still,
when you look at strength of schedule, Alabama number six,
Indiana number twenty eight, and that is weighed heavily by
facing Oregon on the road in Ohio State in the
Big Ten Championship game. But you also did have a
(16:32):
game at Iowa at Penn State right. This is of
course neutral site is what it is.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
I told you.
Speaker 1 (16:38):
Indiana favored by six and a half or seven depending
on the book total of forty eight and a half.
That total has not moved. Indiana minus seven was there
when I created the sheet the day after the CFB
first round. Indiana power rated. I've got him by three
over Obama. Over the last four weeks, I've got Indiana
(17:00):
minus one point four to seven. But the projected stat
spread has Indiana minus ten point six to three. So
if you're just looking at stats from the season, Indiana
has been way better than Alabama, way way better. Special
teams efficiency Indiana number thirty nine, Alabama number one oh eight.
Let's go with Indiana having the football first okay, number
(17:23):
two in PPA per pass, number eleven in PPA per rush.
They do everything well. They run the ball almost fifty
eight percent of the time.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
When they throw it. They're gonna have.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Some problems against this Alabama defense.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Right.
Speaker 1 (17:37):
Alabama is number twenty three and HAVOC created Indiana number eight,
and Havoc allowed passing explosiveness Indiana's number nine, Alabama number four,
Indiana number two and passing success rate Alabama number twenty eight.
Fernando Mendoza, Heisman Trophy winner. Mendoza six touchdowns, five interceptions
against the top four defenses that he faced. Seven his
(18:00):
thirty three touchdowns were against Kennessas State, Perdue, et cetera. Right,
but against the top four defenses Ohio State, Iowa, Oregon,
and I want to say Maryland had sixty ds five interceptions.
Didn't look great. QBR was not good, but his QBR
(18:22):
on the season best in the country one e four.
He was number one in QBR. Bama's defense number thirty
one in QBR allowed. As far as running the football,
Indiana is going to want to run the football, They
run it again almost fifty eight percent of the time.
Number four in rushing success rate, Bama's number fifteen in
(18:45):
rushing success allowed Indiana.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Number eleven in.
Speaker 1 (18:48):
PBA per rush Alabama number forty six and PBA allowed
per rush. Indiana is number four in points for scoring opportunity.
Bama is number forty four. Interesting numbers. Interesting numbers. On
the other side of the ball, Bama cannot run the football.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
They just can't.
Speaker 1 (19:07):
There are certain moments where they can, but there are
Number one twenty five in yards per rush. Indiana's defense
is number ten in yards allowed per rush. Bama is
number ninety three in rusting success. Indiana's defense is number four.
It's not great. There's nothing you can really do to
fix it at this point. I think part of it
is scheme. I think the other part of it is
maybe the actual running backs are not great. So is
(19:31):
what it is raw five factors, Indiana's number two, Alabama
number twenty two. Five factors plus talent. However, Indiana drops
to number eleven. Alabama is number two now that his
opponent adjusted that his talent infused, et cetera. So Bama
has been tested significantly. Points per scoring opportunity for Bama's
(19:51):
offense number thirty one, Indiana number one in points allowed
per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Indiana number four
in points per scoreoring opportunity. Alabama's defense number forty four
in points allowed for scoring opportunity, penalties, turnovers, all of
that heavily in Indiana's favorite. This Indiana team is fantastic,
(20:13):
there's a reason why they are undefeated, but power rating wise,
when you look at just overall team talent, et cetera,
Indiana has not been a favorite against the team that
is significantly more talented other than when they were the
favorite against Penn State, and this was not a good
Penn State team. Granted it was on the road, but
(20:37):
they had to fight to the nail to come back
and win that ballgame. They were a fourteen to fourteen
and a half point favorite somewhere around there won the
game by three on a last second touchdown pass. I
think Alabama is going to be as healthy as they
have been all season in this game, and I do
believe that it is going to be a tight, tight ballgame,
(21:00):
tighter than seven points. So I am of the belief
that we are going to see an upset somewhere in
this first round. I think the loss of Stephen Daley
is huge. I think the fact that Mendoza has not
played well against really good defenses, and Bama does, in
fact have a pretty good defense. They're number fourteen a
(21:20):
defensive success rate. By the way, Ty Simpson looked like
his old self last week, so if you can give
him any kind of protection, he's gonna be able to
hit those wide receivers. I get the feeling that this
is where we're going to see the upset, and I
know a bunch of you think that I'm crazy, but
this just feels like one of those, because I mean,
(21:43):
I'm not gonna lie. Indiana fans are talking a lot
more than I've ever heard them talk, even heading into
the Ohio State game, heading into a bunch of games,
but this is what two years of unprecedented success.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Will do for a football program.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
I think Bamo wins the game, and if they don't,
I think it's super close. But I am expecting a
classic in the Rose Bowl. Kaitlin de Bore really good
in big time games like this. I'm expecting more of
the same from him. Not the Oklahoma game in the
middle of the year, not the Georgia game in the
SEC Championship where they were all banged up. Bama's going
(22:21):
to be super healthy, Indiana missing a key piece on
the defensive line. I think Bamo wins the game, so
I will take the best number, which is seven. So
give me Alabama plus seven, and I think Bama goes
on to face Oregon in the Peach Bowl on January ninth,
the Strigger Bowl on New Year's Day night, this one
at seven pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN,
(22:45):
Ole Miss and Georgia, and that is the Layne kiffenless
ole Miss Rebels against the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia right now
is six and a half point favorite total of fifty
six and a half on this one interesting interesting spot here.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
Let's start off with this.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
The projected stat spread that I've got has Georgia minus
five and a half. My power rating has Georgia minus four.
The last four weeks has Georgia minus three point nine
to three, so about four points. And yet in a
game like this, I fully think that not having Lane
Kiffen around for those very important play calls is a huge,
(23:26):
huge deal. Pete Golding has had success against Georgia in
the past when he was at Alabama. Granted, he did
have a lot of success against Georgia last year in
Oxford as the defensive coordinator. But this Georgia team seems
to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Georgia number
twenty two in PPA margin, ole Miss is number twelve.
When you look at team talent, Georgia number two, ole
(23:48):
Miss number twenty one special teams efficiency both are inside
the top five. I mean, this is just a monster
monster matchup. When you look at position groups, Georgia number
twelve offensive line against the number twenty nine defensive line
for all Miss, ole Miss number thirty one offensive line
against the number forty four defensive line for Georgia. Georgia
(24:08):
number twenty seven running backs against number twenty two linebackers
for ole Miss, Georgia number twenty four skilled position talent
against number twenty opposing back seven for ole Miss, ole
Miss number twenty eight running backs against number twenty one
opponent linebackers for Georgia and ole Miss number eight skill
talent against Georgia number eleven defensive back seven Keywan Lacey.
(24:33):
How injured is that shoulder? How injured is he?
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Very curious?
Speaker 1 (24:37):
Their trendadad Chambliss came back and played, he should be fine.
I would think both of these teams like Georgia four
and three against the spread since twenty twenty in bowl games,
Ole Miss four and two against the spread since twenty
twenty in bowl games Georgia plus twelve and a half,
ole Miss plus four point three. So both play above
expectation in bowl matchups or postseason matchups. When Georgia has
(25:00):
the football number six in points per scoring opportunity, ole
Miss's defense is number sixteen, but ole Miss allows the
ninety seventh the most scoring opportunities per game. Georgia's number
sixty seven is scoring opportunities per game. Georgia has gotten
better at running the football as the season has gone on,
but they are number sixty one and rushing are passing
(25:20):
success rate.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
Excuse me.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
They are number to thirty seven in rushing success rate,
ole Miss number seventy in rushing success allowed. Ole Miss
not great at stopping the run. I think George is
gonna be able to run the football quite a bit
here as far as passing the ball. Gunnar Stockton had
a career day against ole Miss earlier this year. Now,
granted that was in Athens. This one in the Sugar
(25:43):
Bowl in New Orleans.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
It's gonna be.
Speaker 1 (25:45):
This is like a home away from home for ole
Miss fans, So I would expect to see a lot
of ole Miss fans in Louisiana for this. It's kind
of funny that it's happening in Louisiana, right, is what
it is. Ole Miss number seven in PBA per pass,
they are number thirty eight in PPAPRI rush number eighty
three on offensive line yards number ninety four, and stuff
rate allowed Georgia's number eleven, offensive line yards allowed number
(26:08):
thirty five and stuff rate rushing success ole Miss number
thirty nine. Georgia is number eight and rushing success allowed.
So Georgia has gotten better against the run. Ole Miss
better at passing the football. Georgia has not been great
at defending the pass this year. Georgia only number seventy
nine and have it great created ole Miss number thirty
(26:31):
seven and have it allowed? Can ole Miss throw the
ball enough in this game to be able to Are
they going to go explosive? Because they are number six
in passing explosiveness. Georgia is number nineteen. The problem for
Georgia is their number fifty one in passing success allowed.
Ole Miss is number five. So can ole Miss take
(26:53):
the running game and use the passing game enough to
hold on to the football to keep it away from
Georgia because I think george is gonna run it and
keep it.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Away from ole Miss.
Speaker 1 (27:03):
Ole Miss number twelve in place per minute, so they
play fast up tempo. Georgia number one oh three in
place permitted, so they play pretty slow. Ole Miss as
far as points per scoring opportunity number nine. The Georgia
defense is number seventy in points allowed per scoring opportunity,
Georgia number thirty nine. Defensive red zone touchdown rate, ole
(27:25):
Miss's offense is number fifty nine. There, Georgia is number
two an offensive red zone touchdown rate, ole Miss number
thirty seven.
Speaker 2 (27:34):
That is a big one.
Speaker 1 (27:35):
Five factors rank just raw five factors. Georgia sixteen, ole
Miss number seventeen. But when you toss in talent and
you toss an opponent adjustment, george is number four, ole
Miss is number nineteen. I think this is going to
be a big spot for Georgia. I think they are
peaking at the right moment. I think that ole Miss
(27:57):
this is where not having lane Keivin will bite you.
And it took a long time because I mean it
was still Thanksgiving when he decided he was going to LSU.
But this is a massive, massive spot. Current strength to
schedule Georgia fifteen, ole Miss that huge gauntlet of an
SEC schedule. They are number forty one in current strength
(28:19):
to schedule. They played two real games all year, one
at Oklahoma, lost at Georgia. I think Georgia handles them,
and I think they handle them by significantly more than
a touchdown. I say significantly more. I'll just say more
than a touchdown. So I'm gonna take the dogs to win.
I'm gonna take the dogs to cover. Give me Georgia
(28:40):
minus six and a half here, and I think Georgia
will go on to face Ohio State in what the
Fiesta Bowl?
Speaker 2 (28:49):
Is that right?
Speaker 1 (28:50):
So Georgia Ohio State in one semi final and Alabama
and Oregon in the other semi final.
Speaker 2 (28:57):
All right, let's recap the numbers that we got here.
Speaker 1 (28:59):
Miami plus nine and a half, Oregon minus one and
a half, Alabama plus seven, and Georgia minus six and
a half. That is gonna give us on January the eighth,
Georgia against Ohio State and on January the ninth, Alabama
against Oregon. The college I'm expecting at least one upset.
I think Bama's gonna be the one. You guys, correct
(29:20):
me if I'm wrong. I would love to hear it
in the comments. Go ahead, like the video, subscribe to
the channel, jump in the comments. Tell me why you
think I'm crazy, because I know a lot.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Of you do.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
But when you look at these two teams, when you
look at these eight teams, this is how I'm seeing it,
So buy me coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
Speaker 2 (29:42):
What else?
Speaker 1 (29:43):
Oh, the audio podcast? Subscribe to that. We moved over
to a new host. Tell me how you like it
over there so far. I think we're good. I feel
like it's a upgrade, so I'm a fan of it.
But obviously we shall see. But subscribe to the channel.
I would love to hear from all of you. We
have another Bowl video coming out soon, so make sure
(30:04):
that you check that thing out. But for now, this
is the CFP Quarterfinals and we'll have another one for
the semi finals right after those bowl games. So with
that said, take care of yourself, take care of each other.
God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets
cash this week.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.
Speaker 1 (30:25):
Subscribe, leave a review or comment, follow at Gary WCE
on x, and check out the web store.
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