College Football Predictions for All 9 Conference Championship Games!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
On a day's show, We're going over all nine conference
championship games for the twenty twenty five college football season.

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Speaker 1 (01:10):
Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
I'm your host, Gary Siegers at Gary WCE on all
the different socials, and we are going to go over
all nine conference championship games for this weekend. We got
four games on Friday night, we got five games on Saturday,
and they are some monster monster matchups. Let me go

(01:32):
ahead and tell you subscribe to the channel like the
video of course, jump in the comments. I want to
know your picks on these games. And of course you
want to be a member of the community. Sign up
over at buy me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
That's where you get all of these stat spreadsheets and whatnot.
But let's not waste time. Let's get to it. Game
number one, Friday night, six pm Central time, God's time zone,

(01:56):
of course, on the CBS Sports Network, the Conference USA title,
Kennesaw State going over to Jacksonville State in Kennesaw. Currently
a two and a half point favorite total of fifty
nine and a half. Jacksonville State won the earlier matchup.
A lot of these are rematches, and we've got one here.
This one, of course, the rematch of a game that
happened in Jacksonville and jack State won at thirty five

(02:18):
to twenty six, and you can certainly understand why they
would have won that game. Looking at the numbers. Of course,
power rating of got Jacksonville State by point one. The
projected stat spread has Jacksonville State by point six eight.
The last four weeks numbers would have KINNESSAUW favored by
four point six two, which is why that number is

(02:39):
now out to KENNESSAUW minus two and a half. Jack
State opened as a one and a half point favorite,
or at least that's the earliest number that I got
with a total of fifty eight and a half. It's
up to fifty nine and a half now, so we're
expecting some points in this game. Certainly, the reason why

(02:59):
jack State eight might have an advantage here would be
their running game and the fact that Knnessau State can't
stop the run. Number nineteen in PPA per rush for
jack State's offense, number eighty six for Knnessau State's defense.
Both of these teams outside the top one hundred as
far as special teams efficiency, both of them outside the
top one hundred as far as overall talent rank. So

(03:23):
that's totally normal for a Conference USA game. Looking at
the five factors rank jack State number sixty two, Kennessau
number sixty five. I mean, these two teams are very
very similar. But when it comes to just the random
stuff that wins you ball games, Jack State is number

(03:43):
thirteen in turnover margin, number fifty in pennlies per game.
Kennesaw number eighty in turnover margin, number one twenty six
in pennlues per game. Those are pretty important things, is
what it is. You can get into the actual five
factors and why they're so close. Kennesaw much better as
far as average field position. They're pretty good as far

(04:05):
as creating havoc on defense and not allowing it on offense.
There are reasons why Kennesaw is nine to three this season.
One of it has to do with their passing attack.
They are number forty in passing success rate, number forty
two in PPA per pass. The jack State defense is

(04:25):
number eighty in PPA allowed per pass. That's predicted points added.
Who can finish drives here? Jack State number forty eight
points per scoring opportunity. That's when you get a first
down inside of the opponent's forty How many points do
you score on average on those drives? Kennesau State's defense
is number seventy four. On the other side, Kennesaw State
number one eleven in points per scoring opportunity, and this

(04:49):
right here will tell you a little bit about that
number ninety in offensive red zone conversion percentage. But jack
State's defense they don't give up a lot of scoring
opportunities per game, but they are number one hundred in
point's allowed per scoring opportunity. So who takes advantage of who?

Speaker 7 (05:04):
Here?

Speaker 1 (05:05):
Jack State is better at finishing drives, Kennesaw State's defense
is not very good at stopping it, but also Kinnessas
State not very good at finishing drives, and jack State's
defense is not good at stopping it either, So who
takes advantage there? I think the team that you can
trust more is the team that can run the ball,
that can hold on to the football because they don't
turn it over very often. I think Jacksonville State is

(05:28):
gonna win another Conference USA championship. So I think Charles
Kelly has done a really good job here. Yeah, Kennessall's
got some flash and whatnot, but this is a big
line move and I think I trust jack State to
get it done. So give me Jack State plus the
two and a half. The Sun Belt Championship six pm

(05:48):
Central time, this one on ESPN. Troy is headed to
James Madison and yes, James Madison's coach headed off to UCLA,
but he will be here for this game. And they
just got ranked in the College Football Playoff top twenty five.
So if Duke beats Virginia, there is a shot James
Madison will end up in the playoff. The last meeting

(06:09):
between these two teams sixteen to fourteen. James Madison win
back in twenty twenty three. But boy, that was a
It feels like a lifetime ago. That was John sumrawl
against Kurt Signetty. Pretty wild, huh. James Madison won that
game sixteen to fourteen. Now, James Madison is a twenty
three and a half point home favorite with a total

(06:32):
of forty seven and a half. James Madison has been
absolutely rolling teams five and one against the spread at
home plus nine point three. Now, or excuse me, excuse me,
James Madison four and two against the spread at home
plus nine point six. Troy is five and one against
the spread on the road plus nine point three. And yes,

(06:57):
even though they have these horrible numbers three PPA margin
to James Madison's eight number one oh one offensive PPA
per drive predicted points added per drive, James Madison's defense
number six. It's kind of difficult to see where Troy

(07:18):
is going to have success here. Their defense is okay,
number fifty six, and defensive success right number fifty eight
and ppa per drive allowed. They're not great against the run.
They're okay. They're number fifty four in rushing success allowed,
but they are number eighty nine in yards allowed per rush.
James Madison's offense is number fifteen. As far as being

(07:41):
able to stop the other team from scoring, Troy number
twenty nine in points allowed per scoring opportunity, James Madison
number forty six. Now, the difference between these two is
the fact that Troy is number ninety in scoring opportunities
allowed per game. That's a first down inside of the opponent forty.
James Madison number three in scoring opportunities opportunities per game.

(08:04):
So James Madison's gonna get down there a lot. They'll
find ways to score. Most certainly you look at turnover margin.
Both are number seventy. James Madison a little bit better.
As far as holding onto the football Jmu number one
oh six, and penalties per game, Troy is number fifty seven.
This Troy offense is just abysmal. They can't run the football.

(08:28):
They're okay throwing it, but number one twenty six in
ppa per rush. They're just not gonna have success at
all running on this defense. Troy number one fourteen of
rushing success rate, number one thirty in yards per rush
James Madison number four and number two in those two stats.
On defense. As far as finishing drives, Troy number sixty

(08:50):
one in points per scoring opportunity James Madison number thirty six.
So if Troy gets down there, they I'll probably be
able to kick some phil Wolves something along those lines.
The issue is that Troy is number one nineteen scoring
opportunities per game, James Madison number three at preventing them.

(09:11):
So I don't know how often Troy is actually going
to get down there, and that's why this line has
gone from twenty one and a half up to twenty
three and a half. But you gotta wonder, like, are
these kids from James Madison, are they going to play
for Bob Chesney or are they maybe a little distracted?

(09:36):
Is there you know, I thought at some point over
the past few weeks that they would slow down, and
they haven't. This still feels like way too many points.
Because I've got James Madison by seventeen point eighty six.
My power rating only has them by two touchdowns. My
last four weeks has them by a little less than
twenty points. And this thing's out to twenty three and

(09:59):
a half because James Madison has been just blowing teams
out of the water. Even still with all the stuff
that's going on with Chesney taking another job, the playoff stuff,
et cetera. I think Troy can hang around here. I
don't know that I expect them to stay within three touchdowns,

(10:24):
but stay within twenty three and a half. I would
take a shot on that because the number just feels
like it's gotten too big. So I will trust my
number here. We'll take Troy Troy plus twenty three and
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Speaker 1 (12:25):
The American Conference Championship seven pm Central Time Friday night
on ABC, the two lane Green Wave are hosting the
North Texas Mean Green, so a lot of green going
on in the stadium. North Texas currently a two and
a half point road favorite total of sixty six and
a half on this The last meeting between these two

(12:45):
teams was last year twenty twenty four, two Lane one
forty five to thirty seven. And this is an interesting
spot because South Florida absolutely blew the breaks off in
North Texas in the biggest game of their season, and
North Texas really didn't play anybody after that. North Texas
number one twenty five in current strength of schedule to

(13:05):
lane number seventy eight, but two lane two three and
one against the spread at home, they're just six five
and one against the spread so far this season. North
Texas four and one against the spread on the road
plus five point eight, and they are ten to two
against the spread thus far this season. Overall, they are

(13:27):
blowing numbers out of the water. North Texas number ten
and ppa margin two lane number forty nine, and a
lot of this has to do with Eric Morris's offense.
Both of these coaches, by the way, headed off to
take better jobs. Saying better jobs sounds bad. Eric Morris
is going to take the Oklahoma State job and John

(13:47):
summerl is taking the Florida job. Different levels obviously, but
Eric Morris pretty good football coach, knows how to coach
quarterbacks for sure. This thing was three on Sunday, it
has gone down to two and a half. And my

(14:08):
issue with this because all of the numbers would say
that you got to take you got to take two lane.
As the home team, they match up better right as
far as the defensive line for two lane goes. We
saw North Texas against South Florida, who had better athletes,

(14:28):
and South Florida just destroyed them. I think that might
really be the only time this year the North Texas
has played a team that just can dominate them at
the line of scrimmage. Two lanes offensive line though, is eh,
not great, and North Texas not a great defense at all,
but good enough. They can slow down opposing teams and

(14:51):
that is certainly something to pay attention to. The two
lane offense is interesting. Number seventy four in Ppapril Rush,
number twenty nine in ppapri pass but they only throw
the ball forty six and a half percent of the
time the number thirty eight and passing success rate number
thirty nine and passing explosiveness. North Texas really good against
the pass. But North Texas cannot stop the run. So

(15:14):
if Tulane can get the running game going, which their
number seventy one and rushing success rate North Texas, their
defense is number one eleven in rushing success allowed, Twu
lane can keep the ball away from them and you know,
make them work a little bit as far as finishing drives.

(15:34):
Twu Lane is number fifty two in points per scoring opportunity,
North Texas number ninety five on defense. On the other side,
there we go North Texas number one in point points
per scoring opportunity to lane, number sixty three in points
allowed per scoring opportunity North Texas number seven and five
factors rank to lane is number thirty five. This is

(15:58):
a different level than what Tu Lane is used to.
Utsa came out and did some similar stuff to what
North Texas will do, and Utsa ran them out of
the building. Ole Miss threw the foo all around a
little bit. Beat two Lane thirty eight to three. Now
that's a different level of athlete and whatnot. I agree,

(16:20):
but there's something about this North Texas offense. They've known
for weeks that their coach's gone. John Summral was in
Gainesville on Tuesday or on Monday, and now he's supposed
to be preparing for this North Texas offense. I saw

(16:41):
this last year with John Somerall, and they just fell apart.
At the end of the season. They beat Charlotte twenty
seven to nothing. Two Lane did, but I don't feel
like they looked great doing it. You know. I went
back and watched on my ESPN app and was able to,

(17:03):
you know, kind of watch through see the key plays,
and there wasn't really anything super impressive about TWU Lane.
But their lines of scrimmage when they want to can
be pretty devastating. The question is do they want to
at this point? And I don't know North Texas. I
know that they have been smoking teams. That offense is

(17:28):
something serious. Two Lane number sixty four in PPA allowed
per drive. On defense, they are not good against the
pass number seventy four and PPA allowed per pass. North
Texas offense is number four to lane number eighty six
and rushing success rate allowed North Texas is number six.

(17:49):
It looks like this North Texas offense might just be overwhelming,
and that's the side that I'm going to go with.
My projected stat spread has North Texas by four power
rating North Texas by point seven. The last four weeks
would have two Lane by one point five to seven,
which I found very interesting, but I'm gonna trust my

(18:09):
overall numbers. I'll take North Texas to get this win
on the road. Give me the mean Green, not the
green wave. Give me the mean Green minus two and
a half on the road one more time. If you
haven't already liked the video, subscribe to the channel, and
of course jump in the comments. Let me know what

(18:30):
you're taking on these games and whatnot if you agree
with the picks, et cetera. I would love to hear
from you. The Mountain West Championship game seven pm Central Time,
God's time Zone on Fox, and boy, it'd be nice
if they would stagger some of these times. I mean,
it's We're gonna have four games going on at the
exact same time on Friday night. Two of them started six,

(18:52):
two of them started seven. Just ridiculous. Un LV is
going to the blue turf. That is what the computer
gods decided for the Mountain West Conference championship game. Sorry
San Diego State, Sorry New Mexico is what it is.
Boise last beat UNLV fifty six to thirty one just

(19:13):
earlier this year. Now that was with Maddox Madsen as
the quarterback. Boise's offense has fallen off a cliff since
they lost Madison. They did look a little bit better
against Utah State last week, and they are at home,
so that certainly plays into it. Boise certainly rated higher
as far as power ratings, etc. Boise has favored three

(19:35):
and are by three and a half to four depending
on the book, and the total is fifty eight and
a half. So the total has come up, and part
of that has to do with the fact that UNLV's
defense is just atrocious. And Boise has now had what
three weeks with the new starting quarterback, so he's started
to figure some things out. He looks a little bit

(19:55):
better now. He'd certainly looked better last week against Utah State.
But UNLV, I mean, their offense has been good all season.
Number fifteen in PPA per Drive, their number thirty four
and PPA margin number nineteen in offensive success rate. They
are doing well under Dan Mullen and quarterback Anthony Calandria,

(20:17):
but we'll start with Boise on offense. These numbers are
not exactly accurate because obviously they had their quarterback once
upon a time and now they don't. But they are
number sixty in PPA per pass, number seventy four in
QBR overall, number fifty four in passing success rate. Well,
UNLV is number eighty in yards allowed per attempt, number

(20:37):
sixty four and QBR allowed, and number ninety five in
passing success allowed. So I think the quarterback is going
to have some time here UNLV number fifty eight and
have it allowed or have it created and Boise number
fifty three and HAVOC allowed. I think that Boise is
going to be able to run the football though, number
fifty nine in PPA per rush UNOV is number one

(20:58):
thirty two, Boise number forty eight in yards per rush,
UNLV number one thirty two in yards allowed. It's just
rough watching this UNOV defense. Boise number sixty seven and
points per scoring opportunity UNLV number seventy two. Now, part
of that has to do with the fact that they
are number fifteen in takeaways per game, they're only number

(21:22):
fifty three and giveaways per game that puts them at
number twenty five and turnover margin. Boise is number thirty four.
They're number seventy nine and giveaways per game, but they
are also number fifteen in takeaways per game. So we'll
see if you know the whoopsie Daisy King is Tom
Fournellie once upon a time called him Anthony calandrel. We'll
see if he can hold on to the football. That
is one of the only issues with them. There are

(21:45):
number fifty nine and interceptions thrown per pass attempt on offense.
UNLV is and Boise is number nine and interceptions gained
per pass attempt defended. But teams only throw the ball
forty six percent of the time. On Boise, well, UNOV
only throws it forty six and a half percent of
the time. I do think UNLV is gonna run the

(22:05):
football here. Number eight in PPA per rush, number ten
in the yards per rush, Bois number one twenty two
and number one fifteen in those metrics. On defense, you
could certainly see points in this game. UNLV number fourteen
in points per scoring opportunity, Boise number one twelve in
points allowed per scoring opportunity. As far as raw five

(22:26):
factors go number fifty three for Boise, number forty five
for UNLV. UNLV five and one against the spread on
the road, Boise five and one against the spread at home.
So there's not a huge advantage for either team here
other than the fact that Boise has just blown up

(22:47):
UNLV the past what five times that they've played. I mean,
it really hasn't even been close. So and part of
this is U and V is number one thirty in
current strength schedule, bois number seventy two. So while BOIS
is eight and four on the season and un V
is ten and two, big difference there is that Boise

(23:07):
had to play at South Florida and at Notre Dame
and UNOV did not, So big massive difference in those
two things. Looking at this, U and V better As
far as strength, excuse me. As far as special teams
efficiency and whatnot, both teams are outside the top one ten.
As far as penalties per game, both are inside the

(23:28):
top thirty five. As far as turnovers or turnover margin,
my projected stat spread has Boise minus three point two eight.
My power rating has Bois minus four point four but
my last four weeks has U and OV minus ten
and a half. We saw this game earlier, but man,
I think Mattox Matson had a lot to do with that.

(23:51):
I think this is too many points. I think boys
could still win, But man, this feels like it could
be a much tighter game. So I will take you
and OV plus the four. That's the best number we
can get. But I'll take you and OV plus the
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(26:14):
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All right, we moved to Saturday and the Big twelve
Conference Championship game is at eleven am Central Time, God's
time Zone on ABC BYU is taking on Texas Tech.

(26:38):
Good Gracious Tech is a twelve and a half point
favorite with a total of forty nine and a half
on this one. Tech played this bunch a few weeks
ago and beat them twenty nine to seven. You still
have a freshman quarterback who at this point isn't really
a freshman. He's been through a whole season. I get that,
but he's still young. And this BYU team, while they

(27:00):
have shown a lot of fight and a lot of
grit in just all that they cannot block for bear Bagmeier,
they can't do it. And this defense for Texas Tech
is just outrageous. Let's start with BYU on offense right,

(27:27):
b YU number twenty two and five factors and Texas
Tech is number one, way more talent on the Texas
Tech side, by the way, but BYU on offense number
one oh two. In passing success rate they are number
forty five and PBA per pass number fifty six and
QBR Texas Tech is number nine and QBR allowed number
four in yards allowed for attempt number four. In passing

(27:49):
success rate allowed they are number two and have a
great BYU is number twenty four and have it allowed?
Can you block them? Because last week against UCF, BYU
was down to what six offensive lineman total. I don't
see that getting better, uh, And they may have more

(28:11):
bodies available, but I don't think they're healthy. And with that,
I don't know that BYU is going to be able
to score a lot of points here. I mean, obviously
they only put up seven in the first meeting. PPA
per rush BYU is number twenty five. This is kind
of what they hang their hat on. They run the
ball almost fifty seven percent of the time, number twenty

(28:34):
five and PBA per rush number thirty three. In yards
per rush, number thirty four in rushing success Texas Tech
number one in PPA allowed per rush, number one in
yards allowed per rush, number three in rushing success allowed.
They are number five in offensive line yards allowed BYU
is number thirty three in that on offense BYU, number
thirty nine. In points per scoring opportunity, Texas deck is

(28:57):
number four on defense. I mean, this Tech defense is
just I mean, what do you even do with them?
I mean, it's it's wild. On the other side when
Tech has the ball like this is the offensive side.
Is Tech's weakness number thirty nine. An offensive success rate
well BYU's defense is number thirty in defensive success allowed,

(29:19):
number forty four against the pass, number twenty six against
the rush, Tech is better at throwing the football and
that happens to be if you want to call it that.
The weakness of the BYU defense BYU number forty four
and passing success allowed Texas Tech number twenty three. B
YU number twenty four in QBR allowed, Texas TECT number fourteen.

(29:42):
I just and it's not like by you can get
after the quarterback number fifty nine and havoc and Texas
Tech number fifty five and havoc allowed. So I don't
look for Tech to run the ball a lot. They
do run it, you know, fifty one percent of the time,
but you're kind of going into the teeth of that defense.

(30:02):
And I think they can hit some explosives passing the football.
They're number fourteen and passing explosiveness and BYU is number
forty five. As far as points per scoring opportunity, Tech
number thirty one, BYU number thirty seven. The big difference
that you'll see though, is Texas Tech gets a lot
more bites at the Apple. They're number one in scoring
opportunities per game. BYU is number thirty in scoring opportunities allowed,

(30:26):
which is really good except for the fact that you're
going up against the team that right now is a
top four team in the CFP rankings. And I still
don't know how they lost to Arizona State. I know
their quarterback was hurt, but my goodness, both of these
teams inside the top seven as far as turnover margin,
Texas Tech number one oh one and penalties per game

(30:48):
BYU number forty five in penalties per game. I don't
think that makes a huge difference. Both teams inside the
top fifty as far as special teams efficiency, but Tech
is just so much more talented. How this number has
not gotten to two touchdowns yet? I don't know, Like
at my projected stat spread has Tech by twelve or

(31:09):
twelve point one four. My power rating has it less
than six points. But over the last four weeks, Texas
Tech minus fifteen and a half. We're going favorite here,
Red Raiders. I don't see this train slowing down, and
I think Lubbock will be celebrating tortillas everywhere. Texas Tech

(31:29):
minus twelve and a half is the way we're going
on the show. The MAC Championship game almost are almost
also eleven am Central Time on ESPN. Miami of Ohio
travels to Western Michigan. Well is Detroit in Western Michigan.
I don't suppose it is really anyway. This is a

(31:52):
neutral field game. It's at Ford Field, but Western Michigan.
This is their first time there in a long long time.
I believe PJ. Fleck was the last one that got
Western Michigan to the title game, but Western Michigan favored
by two and a half a total of forty three
and a half on this These two teams played earlier
this season in October. Miami got the win twenty six

(32:12):
to seventeen. Granted that one was played in Ohio. My
projected stat spread has Western Michigan by two point sixty one,
My power rating has Western Michigan by point five, and
my last four weeks has Western Michigan minus three point
one point nine. So all very very close to the
two and a half, which is where it has sat. Basically,

(32:34):
it was at forty four and a half for a
total it's come down to forty three and a half
on this Both of these teams outside the top one
hundred as far as current strength to schedule. Miami's offense
number ninety five in PPA per drive, Western Michigan's offense
number one hundred in PPA per drive. So you've got
two bad offenses going against two really good defenses and

(32:59):
Mia move Io playing for a third straight MAC Championship
game here. They did not win last year, they did
win the year before that. Ohio won it last year
five Factors ranked Miami is number forty, Western Michigan number
forty three Miami. The reason why, now granted the numbers,

(33:19):
I'll say that Western Michigan should be favored, but it
didn't look like Miami was going to get here because
they had to change a quarterback. The Kwan Finn is
gone and they've got a new guy, and they put
in a backup that wasn't very good and then they
went with somebody else completely different. Name escapes me at
the moment, probably should have written it down. But he

(33:41):
played pretty well, I believe the last two weeks. So
the Miami offense, I'm not going to say homing right along,
but they're about what they were, so they look about
the same. The issue is Western Michigan is really good
on defense number thirty five in QBR allowed number eighteen

(34:02):
and PPA allowed per pass number forty two and passing
success allowed. Miami's offense number seventy nine, number ninety one
and number one four in though, so they can't really
throw the football. They're gonna have to rely on running it,
which they do almost fifty five percent of the time.
Number thirty four in rushing rate. Western Michigan is number
sixty five, and PPA allowed per rush Miami of Ohio

(34:23):
is number eighty six. There, Western is number forty in
yards allowed per rush, number thirty four in rushing success allowed,
Miami number sixty nine and number sixty two in those spots.
So let's look at who finishes drives. Miami of Ohio
number seventy five, and points per scoring opportunity Western Michigan
number thirty nine. So Western really good at making sure

(34:47):
that you do not score when you get down there.
They are number thirty six in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
They are number eighteen in defensive red zone conversion percentage.
Miami is number sixty four and number ninety five in
those metrics, so I'm not expecting a ton of points
from this RedHawks offense. On the other side, the Broncos
not great on offense either, obviously, and actually probably worse

(35:10):
because they cannot throw it whatsoever. They don't let people
get to the quarterback. But that does not make much
of a difference because they are number one twenty two
in passing success, number one twenty six in PPA per pass,
number one fifteen in yards per pass attempt, number one
fifteen in QBR. Miami's defense is number forty four, twenty four,
twenty nine, fifty four in those metrics, just wild. So

(35:34):
the only chance for Western to score is going to
be running the football. There are number thirty eight. In
rushing success rate, Miami is number sixty one, but Miami
is number seventy. In yards per rush. Miami's defense or sorry,
Western's rushing attack number seventy in yards per rush, Miami's
defense number twenty eight, number sixty seven in ppa per

(35:57):
rush for the offense there for the Broncos, number four,
forty seven for the RedHawks. As far as finishing drives,
Miami number excuse me, Western Michigan number eighty eight. In
points for scoring opportunity, Miami number seventy three. Miami much better.
As far as special teams, they are number twelve and
Western Michigan number one oh five turnover margin. Both are

(36:18):
inside the top thirty penalties per game. Western Michigan much better,
number twelve. Miami is number fifty. And you look at
five factors rank again, Miami is a little bit better,
number forty in five factors, Western Michigan number forty three.
I think there's something to the fact that Miami has

(36:40):
been there before, even though they've got a brand new quarterback,
et cetera. I kind of trust their defense more in
this situation because Lance Taylor and Walt Bell in that bunch.
Chritz ol Leary, obviously, his defense has done great. Walt
Bell on offense, I just I can't trust him. If

(37:01):
you've watched this show for any significant amount of time,
you know my thoughts on Walt Bell. I don't buy it.
I don't buy it. I will take Miami. I trust them.
They have been here before. They know what it takes
to win a championship. And Chuck Martin been doing this
for a long time, does not care one iota about

(37:22):
the non conference stuff. He wants to win the conference
and he has got his team in the position to
do so again. So Western Michigan plus or excuse me,
Western Michigan minus two and a half is not the
play We're going RedHawks. Give me Miami plus two and
a half. All right, Time for one of the Biggins,
this one on ABC three pm Central time, God's time Zone.

(37:46):
Alabama and Georgia in Atlanta in Mercedes Been Stadium. Georgia
right now a two and a half point favorite with
a total forty seven and a half. That is up
from the Georgia minus one and a half that it opened.
And I will tell you that Georgia has been favored
every single time these two teams have played in Atlanta,

(38:06):
and Alabama is five and oh straight up five and
oh against the spread in Atlanta against the Bulldogs. Bama
is ten to one straight up in the last eleven
against Georgia. Just this year they played in Athens and
Alabama got the win twenty four to twenty one. There.

(38:29):
Georgia has certainly looked like the better football team as
of late, but I believe the film guy mister Brooks
would tell you himself Alabama has the mental edge here.
For whatever reason. They can play like crap at Auburn,
look awful, and then show up and look like a
completely different team against this Georgia team. For whatever reason,

(38:53):
my numbers have got Bama favored Bama minus three point
five as far as projected statf spread power rating Batma
minus two last four weeks, Bama minus four point seventy four.
Make it make sense. I will do my best. Uh,
the running game is still gonna have problems, although it

(39:15):
will look completely different than what Georgia played earlier this year,
because it doesn't look like jam Miller is going to play,
So Daniel Hill will be the running back here and
Ak Deer is going to be the backup because Kevin
Riley has a broken jaw, he's the third stringer and
jam Miller got hurt against Auburn last week. Shouldn't make

(39:35):
much of a difference because Bama's number one oh seven
in yards per rush, number one twenty five in rushing explosiveness,
number seventy five and rushing success rate. Georgia's defense is
number eleven, number six and number eleven in those metrics.
Georgia can defend the run. The problem for Georgia is
Alabama throws the ball about fifty three percent of the time.

(40:00):
They are number fifteen in passing success right, Georgia's defense
is number sixty one. Bama is number twenty three in QBR.
Georgie's defense number thirty nine, Bama number twenty one, and
PBA per pass Georgia's defense number sixty three. So can
Bama finish drives? That's the question. There are number thirty
in points for scoring opportunity. Georgia is number sixty nine

(40:23):
in points allowed per scoring opportunity, So we'll see what
that looks like. Georgia a huge advantages for our special
teams is concerned number four in special teams efficiency and
Bama's number one hundred. Bama gives up punt returns, they
give up kick returns, they drop punts. You know, so

(40:43):
long as Adams is back there, I don't think they're
gonna drop any but you never know, never know what
this stuff. Before we get to Georgia. On offense, turnover
margin could be huge here Bama number nineteen. They are
number seventeen and giveaways per game. Georgia is number twenty
three three and giveaways per game. But Bama is number
thirty two and takeaways per game. Georgia is number one

(41:04):
oh eight. It's a huge difference between these two, like
massive difference actually, because Georgia just cannot generate turnovers for
whatever reason. So Georgia on offense, they are number fourteen
in offensive success rate, Bama's number seventeen in defensive success rate.

(41:25):
Georgia is a pretty good run in the football. Bama
has actually stepped up their game. It is a massive
difference when Tim Keenan is playing because that man can
do everything. They had him drop back in coverage against
Auburn at a couple of different points. And this man
weighs like three hundred and fifty pounds. I mean he sees

(41:47):
he takes up so much space. So Georgia on offense,
number thirty eight PPA per pass, Bama's number twelve. Georgia
number forty in PPA per rush, Bama is number fifty six.
On defense, Georgia has gotten better as far as running
the football, number thirty two and rustling success, right, but

(42:08):
Bama's number nineteen and rushing success. So we're gonna see
what this looks like. Georgia, of course, starting center out.
Both of these teams are dealing with massive injuries. We're
going to see who has really the healthier football team.
I think that's the biggest thing. Both of these teams

(42:29):
could use a buy in the playoffs. I will say
that for sure. So points for scoring opportunity, Georgia is
number seven, Bama's defense is number twenty two. As we
said on the other one, Bama number thirty in points
for scoring opportunity, Georgia number sixty nine. I think that
the Bama defense is going to be able to show
up here. I'm curious about Georgia and their defense. Can

(42:56):
they slow down a passing attack? Factors rank Bama's number
twelve and Georgia's number twenty three. Can So many people
have seen this game over and over and over again,
and they continue to take Georgia. And I'm not totally

(43:20):
certain why you would do that, knowing the history of
the matchup. Calin de Boor when he gets into games
like this, the man is a winner. And do I
think Georgia is the overall better team?

Speaker 10 (43:34):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (43:36):
Can I bet Georgia until I actually see them beat
this team? No? I know they beat him in the
National Championship game several weeks ago or several weeks several
years ago. That was the only time in the last
eleven tries, and it took Bama's Star Wide receiver, really
both Star Wide receivers being out in order for Georgia

(44:01):
to win the game. I think Jermy Bernard is gonna
be fine. Ryan Williams will see about that. But Isaiah
Horton has been an absolute beast. The Brooks kid is awesome,
Bama's got weapons, Josh Quevo still out. We'll see what
that means for the offense. Obviously you'd like to have

(44:22):
your safety blanket there. But still until I see it,
I gotta go Obama. So give me. Give me the
tide plus two and a half. That's the best number
we got. If this thing hits three, I mean that's
an automatic for me. Yeah, Alabama plus two and a half.

(44:46):
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Speaker 1 (46:01):
The AC Seed Championship game seven pm Central Time on Saturday,
this one on ABC, Virginia taking on the Duke Blue
Devils and Virginia a three and a half point favorite
total of fifty seven and a half. Virginia won this
matchup earlier, just about three weeks ago, thirty four to seventeen.

(46:23):
How this duke team got here still blows my mind.
Virginia has two losses on the season. One of them, well,
both of them were too acc teams, but only one
of them counted because they scheduled NC State in a
non conference game because the damn conference is so big

(46:46):
that they weren't going to get to play them very often,
so they did their own thing. So let's look at
the numbers. Let's see exactly what we're looking at. My
power rating has Virginia by two point six week's Virginia
minus seven point six. Projected stat spread has Virginia minus
seven point twenty nine. Very interesting. Duke's numbers number twenty

(47:10):
five and turnover margin Virginia is number nineteen in that,
but it's it's interesting. The Duke is twenty third and
giveaways per game they're number one twenty and fumbles lost
per rushing attempt Virginia is number thirty seven and fumbles
gained per rushing attempt defended. They don't really throw turnovers,

(47:34):
they're number three and interceptions thrown per pass attempt, but man,
they lose some fumbles. And the Duke defense, it is
just atrocious for amany Diaz defense. It's just bad looking
at PPA margin Virginia number twenty nine, and their defense

(47:54):
is their strength. Duke number seventy three PPA margin. Their
offense is their strength, and the defense is so bad.
It's number one twenty two in PPA allowed per drive,
number ninety nine and defensive success allowed. And it's not
like Virginia has been world beaters on offense. Chandler Morris
has been okay, number seventy two in PPA per pass

(48:16):
seventy two in yards per attempt seventy two in QBR.
They are number forty nine in passing success rate, but
Duke number one, twenty seven one twenty five win eighteen one,
twenty one in those metrics. So Virginia is going to
be able to throw the football, and I think they'll
be able to run it too. Their number twenty nine
in PPA per rush, Duke is number seventy one. As

(48:39):
far as offensive line yards are concerned, Duke pretty good
at defending against that number twenty four in offensive line
yards allowed, Virginia number fifty, Virginia number thirty four in
stuff rate allowed. Duke is number nine in stuff rate.
The issue is Duke number sixty one in yards per
rush allowed and Virginia number forty one. So these Duke

(49:00):
numbers are just kind of all over the place. Virginia
is number sixty nine in points per scoring opportunity. Duke
is number one thirty one third down third down conversion
percentage Virginia number fourteen, Duke number one, twenty eight. Virginia
will be able to stay on the field. They did

(49:21):
it already once against this team. Kind of expect them
to do it again on the other side of the ball.
When Duke has it on offense, they are really good
throwing the football. The issue for them is that Virginia's
defense is really good at defending the pass. Duke number
twenty six and PBA per pass number thirty two in

(49:42):
yards per attempt, number twenty two in QBR Virginia number
twenty three and PBA allowed per pass number forty four
in yards allowed per attempt, number thirty three in QBR,
number eighteen in passing success allowed for the Who's number
twenty four for the Blue Devils, Duke can't run it
number one thirteen in rush rate, and they are number

(50:02):
fifty eight in passing or in rushing success rate, eighty
one in PBA per rush, number seventy eight in yards
per rush. Virginia's defense number forty six in PPA per rush,
number eighteen in yards per rush, and number forty two
in rushing success allowed. So that might be the best
opportunity for Duke to you know, actually put up points

(50:26):
because that's the weakness of the Virginia defense. I still
think Darien Minsa is going to have to be out
of this world to be able to win this football game.
Duke is number twenty eight in points per scoring opportunity.
Virginia is number twenty four, and I'll tell you, I
think the majority of the world is pulling for the
Blue Devils here because they want to see James Madison

(50:48):
get into the playoff. I think there is a world
where Duke wins this game, and if they win it convincingly,
Duke could jump into that top twenty five in the
playoff and James Madison fallout. It's entirely possible. But Virginia
in number twenty four and five factors rank Dute number

(51:09):
fifty six. I I've seen this Duke team too many times.
I think Virginia is actually pretty good. I think the
Whos are gonna go to the playoffs, and this number,
I don't think it's come up enough. It was two
and a half. I already betted at that three and
a half is the new number. I think it ends

(51:29):
up closer to a touchdown or maybe what it was
last time, which is thirty four to seventeen. I don't
feel like anything's changed. Maybe I'm nuts, but I think
Virginia kind of wipes the forward with these guys. I
will take the Cavaliers minus three and a half, all right,
one more time if you haven't already subscribed to the
channel like the video and jump in the comments. I

(51:54):
would appreciate that quite a bit, actually, so go ahead
and help me out do that. Oh and check out
Buy my Coffee Slash Winning Cures. The Big Ten Championship
Game Saturday night. This one seven pm Central Time on Fox.
And normally there's a lot more hype when you have
number one against number two. But for whatever reason, because

(52:14):
of the playoff, the fact that both of these teams
are in the playoff, regardless of what happens here, both
probably have buyers. Regardless of what happens here, it doesn't
feel like there's that sense of urgency. This one happening
in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Indiana Hoosiers are going to be there.
Ohio State travels well everywhere. I think you're probably going

(52:43):
to have more Indiana fans at this one. They haven't
been there. But at the same time, Ohio State hasn't
been to the Big Ten champion or Big Ten Championship
game since what the COVID year twenty twenty, and Indiana
technically should have gone that year and the Big Ten
changed the rule at the last minute and allowed Ohio

(53:06):
State to take the spot. So maybe a little bit
of a payback for that one. Last year, these two
teams played and Ohio State won the game thirty eight
to fifteen in Columbus. It was a splattering, as Josh
Pate would call it. The last Indiana win against Ohio
State was in nineteen eighty eight in Bloomington. In that

(53:29):
time span, Ohio State is thirty one zero and one
straight up against Indiana, and I don't see this one
being a whole lot different. This thing opened at Ohio
State minus five and a half. It has come down.
It's now Ohio State minus four to four and a
half depending on the book, forty seven and a half
to forty eight and a half is your total, depending

(53:49):
on the book. The total opened at forty nine and
a half. Opened with Ohio State minus five and a half.
I think they expected more Buckeye action and there's just
been a lot of Indiana love here. My projected stat
spread has Ohio State minus four point three to two.
My power rating has Ohio State minus two. The last
four weeks it has Ohio State minus four and a half.

(54:13):
Would you call this a letdown spot for Ohio State?
Maybe because they just beat Michigan for the first time
since twenty nineteen. How much does that weigh on the
coaching staff? Are they relieved? Do they care about this game?
You wouldn't think that would be an issue with the

(54:34):
one versus two matchup, but eh, I mean, that's what
we're looking at. These two teams have played the best
of anybody all season. I mean it's not even been close.
Ohio State number one and PBA margin, Indiana number three,
number one in offensive success rate for Ohio State, Indiana's

(54:55):
defense number five, Indiana's offense number two in success rate.
Ohio State's defense number ten. Ohio State not great against
the pass, which is hilarious because they're number thirty one
in passing success allowed, but they're number four in PPA
allowed for pass, number one in yards allowed per attempt,
number six in QBR well, Indiana's offense is number three,

(55:17):
number four, number one in those. They are number two
in passing success rate. Fernando Mendoza is going to have
his hands full. I will I will certainly say that
Indiana running the football number six and PPA per rush,
number eleven, in yards per rush, number five in offensive
line yards. Ohio State is number five, number five, number

(55:40):
six and rushing success allowed, number eighteen in offensive lineyards allowed.
So it's the defensive line for Ohio State that is eh.
I mean, if there is a weakness, I guess that
would be. It doesn't feel to me that Matt Patricia's
defense has a whole lot of weaknesses though, so we
shall see. We're kind of nit picking here, or picking knits,

(56:04):
as I guess they would call it. Indiana number three
in points for scoring opportunity, Ohio State's defense number six.
On the other side, Ohio State number two in points
for scoring opportunity, Indiana's defense number one. Ohio stat is
number one in PPA P pass Indiana's defense is number
twenty five. They're number fifteen in past success allowed, Ohio

(56:28):
status number three in passing success rate. I don't think
Indiana's got the secondary to hang with a healthy Carnel
Tate Jeremiah Smith in this etc. Right, I don't feel
like they've got in saying is absurd, just ridiculously accurate.

(56:49):
But again, he has not been in one of these situations.
Mendoza has not been in one of these situations. So
you've got some new faces at quarterback and how much
does the environment impact them? I don't think it'll have
very much at all, but we'll see. I have State
look good running football against Michigan last week, might find
it a little more difficult this week against Indiana. I

(57:11):
have State number forty six and PBA per rush, number
thirty six in yards per rush, number twelve in rushing success,
and number thirty six in offensive line yards. Indiana is
top ten, really top five, and almost all of these.
Number six in PBA per rush, number nine in yards
per rush. They are number four in rushing success allowed,
number four in offensive line yards allowed. I just don't

(57:34):
see it. I have State number two in points per
scoring opportunity. Indiana is number one in points allowed per
scoring opportunity, so special teams. Indiana has the advantage number
thirty to number sixty eight. Turnover margin Indiana number one.
They take care of the football, they generate turnovers. Ohio

(57:55):
State is number thirty four. They do not generate turnovers.
They're number ninety four and take aways per game, but
they are number four in giveaways, so they don't give
it away very much. Both of these teams inside the
top fifteen as far as penalties per game. Both of
them are outside the top ninety five as far as
plays per minute, so our pace, tempo, whatever you want
to call it, they both go slow. So where is

(58:18):
the advantage? What are we looking for? Five factors rank
Indiana number two, Ohio State number four. The advantage that
you will find is that Ohio State is number four
in overall talent rank. Indiana is number forty six. I

(58:40):
still think talent matters. Ohio State has a roster that
is filled with insanely athletic, super talented dudes, and Indiana's
got some, but I don't think they got enough. After
watching this up in Columbus last year, I know it's

(59:02):
completely different teams. I get that. I know Signetti's awesome.
I'm a Signetti guy. Smoke them if you got them
straight through the filter. But I can't do it. I
can't bet Indiana here. I think Ohio State is immensely
more talented. I think they want the Big Ten championship.

(59:23):
I think both of these teams do. But I think
Ohio State is a way better football team. Which is
when I say way better, I don't mean like crush
them better. But do I think they're about a touchdown better?

Speaker 2 (59:39):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (59:39):
I think that I will take the Buckeyes. Give me
Ohio State minus four, best number we can get right now.
I don't think Indiana can hang with these guys, so
I will take the buck Eyes. All right, we went
through all nine games. We spent too long on probably
most of them. But let's recap it. Let's go through

(01:00:00):
Conference USA title. We're taking Kennessall minus two and a half.
Or sorry, we're taking jack State plus two and a half.
Maybe I should read the damn things right, that'd probably
be good, right, c USA Jack State plus two and
a half, Sun Belt Troy plus twenty three and a half,
AAC I guess the ACU North Texas minus two and

(01:00:20):
a half, the Mountain West U and LV plus four,
Big twelve Texas Tech minus twelve and a half, the
MAC Miami of Ohio plus two and a half, the
SEC Alabama plus two and a half, the ACC Virginia
minus three and a half. And in the Big ten,
we're going with the favorites. We're going Buckeyes minus four.

(01:00:42):
That is gonna wrap things up four really the regular season.
By the next time we talk, my friends, we will
be looking at a playoff bracket. We're gonna be going
over bowl games all that good stuff. As I do
every year. I will go over every single bowl game

(01:01:03):
on the schedule right here on the channel. So make
sure you are subscribed. It's free to do that. It
helps me out tremendously, gets me in front of more advertisers, etc.
So I would certainly appreciate that. Yeah, we're continuously trying
to build this thing. Go over to buy me a
coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. That helps me out
a ton when you sign up over there. Ah, what

(01:01:26):
a year it has been, Indiana a playoff that could
have Virginia Indiana two Lane or North Texas. How weird?

Speaker 2 (01:01:40):
Is this?

Speaker 1 (01:01:41):
What a sport? God? I love this sport. All right,
gotta wrap it up, you guys, take care of yourself,
take care of each other. God bless college football and
hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for
listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
follow gary them you see on ECT and check out

(01:02:02):
the web store for.

Speaker 2 (01:02:04):
Their twelve Days of Christmas. Your spar had for me
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Five mins, Spies for Christmas case, three Brussels rouse, two
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Speaker 5 (01:02:35):
I've been thinking we need to talk to him about it.

Speaker 6 (01:02:37):
He might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
a time as any. Okay, I'll give it a go
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