Every Bowl Pick Dec 31 - Jan 2 | Full College Football Predictions - Winning Cures Everything

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Today, we're going through all eight bowl games from December
thirty first through January second, excluding the CFP quarterfinals. Welcome
in Winning Cures Everything. It's College Football Podcast. I'm your host,
Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all the different socials,
most active on X. I am back, I am alive.

(00:24):
We got through with Christmas. I immediately got sick. I
don't know if it was exhaustion or what, but I'm
back and I'm ready to talk about some football games.
So we are going over all eight college football bowl
games from December thirty first through Friday, January the second.
I already did a video for the college football playoff
quarterfinal games. That would be the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl,

(00:46):
the Cotton Bowl, and I'm missing one Sugar Bowl, No.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl. There you go.

Speaker 1 (00:56):
Eventually I would get it, but regardless, there's another video
for those if you'd like to go and check those out.
Another podcast as well. Make sure you are subscribed to
the audio only podcast. I'm going to be putting up
audio only shows as well.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
The YouTube channel.

Speaker 1 (01:10):
I'll be doing at least one video per week once
all of this gets done. Obviously, we have more ballgames
to discuss playoffs and whatnot, but much more. As far
as the record goes, I've made a lot of picks
on the show throughout this football season two thirty two,
twenty four and three as of December twenty seventh, as

(01:32):
far as the bowl games and the college football playoff games,
fifteen eleven and one on those, so we're staying above
five hundred. We want to keep adding to that record.
Let's see what we can do. Course, subscribe, buy Maycoffee
dot com, slash Winning Cures if you like the spreadsheets,
and make sure you're subscribed to the channel, that you

(01:53):
like the video, and that you jump in the comments.
Let me know you're picked on these games. If there
are any if there's any information that I don't have
on these make sure and toss him in there.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Help your fellow viewers out. But that said, let's get
to the games.

Speaker 1 (02:10):
Wednesday, December thirty, first New Year's Eve at eleven am
Central time, God's time Zone on ESBM. We've got Vanderbilt
and Iowa in the Rely Request Bowl, and let's start
off by talking about potential opt outs, injuries, et cetera.
Kurk ference, of course, came out said that he expects
the roster to be intact for this Bowl game. The

(02:31):
cornerback TJ. Hall missed the last two games of the year.
Running back Xavier Williams he missed the finale Vanderbilt potential
opt outs tight end to Eli Stowers. The reports are
saying that he's going to opt out for the game.
The quarterback Diego Pavia. I would imagine that he plays,

(02:51):
but there's no real injuries. As far as that goes,
Iowa has potential opt outs. Defensive end excuse me, Max Llewellen,
tackle Aaron Graves, center, Logan Jones, right guard at Cade Piper,
right tackle Jennings Dunker, the safety savior in Wakpa, and
of course the cornerback TJ Hall, who missed the last

(03:11):
two games of the year with an injury.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Totally possible. There the projected spirit. I guess the.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
I need the actual line, don't I. Vanderbilt was a
four point favorite on this and let's see. I'll find
the line here in a minute. I've got Vanderbilt by
three and a half on this an interesting number, to
say the least. My power rating has Vandy by half
a point the last four weeks. Though I always started playing

(03:42):
a lot better. Iowa minus five and a half. But
Vandy did, of course, put on a show against Let's see,
all right, so Vandy four to four and a half,
that's what our number looks like. Forty six and a
half is our total on this and that has come
down drastically. But Iowa by five and a half. Eh, okay,

(04:05):
all right, Vandy PPA number ten. That's their predicted points
added margin.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
Not too shabby. They're pretty good.

Speaker 1 (04:14):
They're number one in the country in predicted points added
per drive, but they're number ninety nine on defense. Iowa
is the complete opposite, number eighty two PPA per drive
on offense, number fourteen PPA per drive on defense. So
the defense is really good against the pass, pretty good
against the run. Their number fifty seven and rushing success
rate allowed, but number thirty four in PPA allowed per rush.

(04:35):
Vandy is number two in PPA per rush, number twenty
four in rushing success rate ken Vanderbilt finish drives. They
are number one in points for scoring opportunity. Iowa's defense
is number thirty three. I think whenever Vandy gets into
scoring position they will be able to score here excuse me,
special teams efficiency. Both of these teams inside the top

(04:56):
twenty five. Both of these teams are outside the top
forty as far as overall talent rank, so this is
a pretty good Bowl matchup. Iowa's offense not very good
throwing the football, which is a shame because that is
Vanderbilt's weakness. The secondary has not been good for them.
If you look at the there.

Speaker 2 (05:16):
We go all right.

Speaker 1 (05:17):
So if you look at the roster, if you look
at position groups, Vandy is number fifty two in defensive
back seven. Iowa is number eighty six. In skill talent
Iowa number one nineteen and running backs Vandy number sixty one.
Linebackers IOWA number one. Offensive line. Vandy's defensive line number

(05:41):
thirty eight. So Vandy does have some talent that will
be able to slow down the run. Iowa number thirty
seven PPA per rush, number twenty one rushing success rate,
Vandy number twenty two PPA allowed per rush and number
forty five in rushing success allowed. Offensive lineyards Iowa number twelve,
Fandy number thirty. As far as Vandy's defense, Iowa is

(06:04):
number twenty seven in points per scoring opportunity. Vandy is
number seventy eight in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Now,
how that flips is. Iowa is only number seventy five
and scoring opportunities per game, so they don't get a
lot of first downs inside the opponent forty yard line.
Vandy is number forty one at allowing scoring opportunities. So
I don't expect for Iowa to get a ton of opportunities,

(06:26):
but I think that they can cash in whenever they do.
A lot of that will come down to turnovers, etc.
Both of these teams are number fifty five and turnover margin.
They are both number twenty two and giveaways per game.
They are both number seventy nine and takeaways per game.
Iowa is number one in the country in penalties per game,
Vandy number ninety three. A lot of this and this

(06:47):
is basically what all Vanderbilt games are. Can Diego Pavia
make place against Iowa. I think that's going to be
a little bit more difficult than it would be against
say another Big ten team. Right, Iowa plays very disciplined.
Diego has a way of getting you out of your discipline,

(07:10):
but Iowa tends to stay in it. I do think
Vandy is going to come out. I think they'll be
able to put up some points. But I also think
that Iowa was going to be able to run the
ball on them, and I think that, you know, when
it comes to special teams, et cetera, nobody really outduels
Iowa as far as that goes, and I know they
lost their special teams coach. I don't know if he's

(07:30):
staying with them through the bowl game. Is he's going
to Michigan State with Pat Fitzgerald as an associate head coach.
So I do think that Iowa hangs around in this thing,
and this feels like a field goal game.

Speaker 2 (07:44):
I'm gonna trust the numbers here.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
It's got Vandy by three and a half in the
power rating has Vandy by half a point. Last four
has Iowa by five and well almost six points. I'm
gonna go with Iowa. I don't think they're gonna have
a ton of opt outs. I think they're going to
show up here and this will be a tight ballgame.
Phil goal either way gets us a cover. Give me
Iowa plus four and a half. The Tony the Tiger

(08:09):
Sun Bowl has Arizona State and Duke down in Opasso.
This one at one pm Central Time, God's time Zone
on CBS, of course, and our number here, Duke minus
three is the current odds total of forty nine and
a half on that, and that's across the board. Basically,
I've got Duke favored by two. My power rating has

(08:30):
Arizona State minus one and a half, and my last
four weeks actually has Arizona State minus eight. Now this
does include Duke's championship game, et cetera. A lot of
things had to go right for Duke to actually win
that championship game. Duke is number seventy two in PPA margin,
Arizona State number fifty eight. Let's take a look at

(08:52):
the transfer portal. Sam Levitt of course not play, he
hadn't played in forever. Josh Atkins, the left tackle, he's
in the portal. The cornerback Javon Robinson, he's in the portal.
Linebacker Tate Romney also in the portal. He was a backup,
didn't play much. Jeff Simms is going to start at quarterback,
but the freshman Cam Dyer is gonna get some reps
in the game.

Speaker 2 (09:12):
There are a.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
Bunch of opt outs for Arizona State. The wide receiver
Jordan Tyson, defensive back Xavian Alford, Keith Abney, the cornerback
running back Leige Brown, right tackle Max iron Acker. Probably
didn't say that, right, Arizona State fans, you jump in
the comments. Let me know the linebacker Keishawn Elliott, tight

(09:33):
end Kmon Mattayer. Uh. There are also potential opt outs
defensive tackle CJ Fight, defensive end Prince Dorba, right guard
Kyle Scott, safety Miles Rouser, defensive line Justin Wattley, and
the linebacker Jordan Crook. And then, of course there are
injuries as well. The cornerback Rodney Bemage Junior, he hadn't

(09:53):
played since Week twelve, the offensive lineman Ben Coleman, he
was lost for the year in Week seven, and then
the defensive end Clayton Smith, he had knee surgery recently. Duke,
they're starting right tackle Brian Parker. The second is out,
the cornerback Chandler Rivers is out, and defensive end Vincent
Anthony Junior is out. Darien Mensa is going to be back,

(10:14):
so he is going to play. Manny Diaz said that
defensive end Wesley Williams, who declared for the NFL Draft,
he is expected to play. And let's see the cornerback
Camori Robinson. Missed the a SEC Title game, Defensive end
Bryce Davis missed the a SEC title game, and the
safety Terry Moore.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Has been out all year. He's going to be drafted.

Speaker 1 (10:33):
So okay, that was a lot to get over to
what we're looking at. The numbers would certainly tell you
to go Arizona State. But with that many opt outs
and whatnot for Arizona State, so many injuries, et cetera.
Who's got the better quarterback and it's obviously Darien Mensa.

(10:55):
You've got multiple cornerbacks out for Arizona State, let's see,
or multiple defensive backs.

Speaker 2 (11:02):
How's that.

Speaker 1 (11:02):
We won't say cornerbacks, but they weren't great stopping the
pass anyway. Like they were good, they weren't great, and duke.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
That's all they do.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
They throw the ball almost fifty four percent of the time.
They were number twenty one in QBR, number thirty one
in yours per attempt, number twenty five, in passing success
number twenty nine, and passing explosiveness, and Arizona State is
around forty in all of those metrics. Passing explosiveness their
number twenty seven. But when you've got that many defensive
backs out, it's going to be interesting havoc. That's a

(11:36):
big part of this. But when you're looking at, you know,
losing some potential defensive ends, defensive actly like defensive lineman
for Arizona State. How much havoc are they going to
be able to create? They're number fourteen and have it created.
Duke is number sixty seven and have it allowed? Do
you can't run the ball? That's what Arizona State defends best.

(11:59):
I don't think you're going to see a running it
a whole lot.

Speaker 2 (12:02):
I'll say that.

Speaker 1 (12:03):
As far as points for scoring opportunity, who can finish drives?
Duke is number twenty nine in points for scoring opportunity.
Arizona State is number thirty five in points allowed per
scoring opportunity. Arizona State also outside the top one to
twenty five and special teams efficiency. Duke is a top
fifty special teams efficiency team. Both of these teams around

(12:23):
fiftieth in overall talent rank. Duke the slightly more talented team.
As far as the defense is concerned, for Duke, they
are better against the run than they are against the pass,
and Arizona State can't pass it. So is Arizona State
going to be able to run the football, probably not.
Arizona State number one eighteen in points per scoring opportunity.

(12:46):
Duke is number one twenty nine and points allowed per
scoring opportunity. So who can finish drives better? It's probably
going to be Duke in this spot five factors rank,
Duke is significantly better as far as raw five factors,
but when you do five factors plus talent, you got
number forty seven and number fifty one. This Arizona State team.
The numbers have not liked them all season long. I

(13:11):
mean just not even close. Arizona State is number ninety
eight and turnover margin Duke number twenty one. Duke does
not turn the ball over. There are number twenty two
and giveaways per game Arizona State number ninety seven, which
makes sense because Jeff Simms has played most of the
year and this is not a knock on the kid
per se. This is not me trying to bash him,
but he tends to give the ball away, mostly through

(13:35):
fumbles like number one seventeen and fumbles lost per rush
Duke is number forty three and fumbles gained per rush defendant.
So you look at this and you're looking at you
know Arizona State with the with the better talent group
as far as position groups are concerned. But what does

(13:56):
that mean as far as the guys that are actually out?
This was Duke minus one and a half to start.
It's out to three. Now, I can't believe it's not
over a field goal. I think Darien Mins is going
to have a field day here, and I.

Speaker 2 (14:11):
Think that I think they're going to cover the spread.

Speaker 1 (14:15):
Give me the Duke Blue Devils minus three the cheese
at Citrus Bowl two pm Central Time on ABC. You
got Michigan and Texas. Texas a seven and a half
point favorite, total forty eight and a half on this
and I Am not going to go through all of
the opt outs and potential opt outs and everything else. Michigan,

(14:36):
of course, their coach fired, Sharon Moore. They have Kyle
Whittingham now he is not going to coach in the
bowl game. He is, well, Biff Pogi is going to
coach in the bowl game. I'll say that that'll be
the easiest thing to do. Michigan's got a bunch of
different injuries. The linebacker Houseman, the safety Curtis, the left tackle,

(14:57):
Evan Link, safety Rod Moore, the running back Justice Haynes.
Running back Jordan Marshall only played sixteen snaps against Ohio State.
Wide receiver Somage Morgan missed the final two games. The
backup quarterback mikey Keane won't be available for the bowl game,
but we would expect the Bryce Underwood is going to play.

Speaker 2 (15:14):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (15:14):
Then there's opt outs right edge Derek Moore, linebacker Barham,
the left guard El Hadie, and then of course with
the Texas transfer portal quin trebon Weisner, the running back,
the running back CJ. Baxter, running back Jered Gibson, the
offensive lineman Connor Strow, and the left or the linebacker

(15:37):
Lay However, you say that Texas fans correct me. Uh,
Then there's a bunch of opt outs as well. The
safety Michael taff the cornerback Mohammed, the cornerback Gilbo, the
linebacker Anthony Hill. Uh. He missed the final two games
due to injury, but he's he's not gonna play in
this both edges Trey Moore and Ethan Burke, the wide

(15:58):
receiver Dow and Dre Moore. Texas probably gonna be without
six or seven defensive starters here. And then you've got
some potential opt outs to defensive tackle Cole Brevard, right
guard DJ Campbell, left tackle Trevor Gooseby, tight end Jack Injuries,
who says that he's.

Speaker 2 (16:16):
Going to play. But we'll see.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
They fired their defensive coordinator, Pete Kwakowski. They hired Will
Muschamp to be the new DC. I don't think Mushhamp's
going to coach in the bowl game. We'll see what happens.
So these numbers that I have on your screen here
really mean nothing. I've got Texas favored by five. You
know the number is up to Texas minus seven and
a half. I've got Texas by five. My power rating

(16:42):
has Texas by two. The last four weeks actually has
Michigan by eleven. Somehow, even though Texas played significantly better
against Texas A and M and whatnot. Arch Manning is
going to play. I think Bryce Underwood is going to play.
This is going to be interesting. Michigan special teams has
been awful. Number one twenty four. Texas is number thirty
three in that Texas more overall talent number three against

(17:05):
number nineteen, who is better at finishing drives Texas number
ninety eight in points per scoring opportunity. Michigan's defense is
number seventy two in points allowed per scoring opportunity, and
when you look at offensive red zone conversion percentage, Texas
number seventy one. They are number sixty four in red
zone touchdown rate. Michigan's defense sixty seventh, but they are

(17:28):
number seventeen in defensive red.

Speaker 2 (17:29):
Zone touchdown rate allowed.

Speaker 1 (17:32):
Michigan is not great at converting in the red zone
on offense, and Texas is number eighty seven and defensive
red zone touchdown rate allowed.

Speaker 2 (17:42):
I'm curious. I think.

Speaker 1 (17:47):
This is just a guess because neither team has running
backs available. I think this thing could end up being
relatively tight. I think Biff is going to be able
to get these guys to show up and have a
little bit of pride about them. There's no sense in
going through what the numbers actually are because that's not
the teams that are playing. Texas did get better throwing

(18:10):
the football throughout the year, number fifty four in passing success.
Michigan's defense number one oh two against the pass, So
Texas better at throwing the football and Michigan is actually
better at defending the run. On the other side. Texas
really good against the run. Now, obviously without your edge rushers,
without your defensive tackle, potentially without you know, there's there's

(18:33):
things there, and you don't have your defense coordinator. Michigan
better as far as penalties per game, Texas better as
far as turnover margin. I think it's going to be
a tight ball game. So the fact that this thing
is up at seven and a half is pretty wild
to me. I'm going Michigan. I think they show up.
I think they got some pride about them. I think
this is going to be a lower scoring game. This

(18:55):
was a forty six for a total, and it is
all the way out to four eight and a half
at this point. I still think it's gonna be a
low scoring game. Like, yeah, these teams are probably gonna
have to throw more, but I'm not expecting a lot
of points. I just I don't think that's what we're
gonna get. So give me a Michigan plus seven and

(19:17):
a half to cover this number against Texas. I think
it ends up being a one possession game. I've got
a hook here, uh So I will go with the Wolverines.
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(19:38):
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Speaker 2 (19:54):
Slash Winning cures New.

Speaker 1 (19:56):
Year's Eve, two thirty pm Central Time, God's time zone.
On Then we got the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
and that is Nebraska against Utah. A lot of red
gonna be in Las Vegas for this one. Utah a
fourteen and a half point favorite with a total of
fifty and a half on this And yes, lots and

(20:16):
lots of opt outs and injuries and et cetera. Dylan
Reyola not gonna play, he's out for the year. Defensive
back Malcolm Hertzog is in the transfer portal. The quarterback
Marcus Devilla or Davila, he's in the transfer portal. That
doesn't necessarily mean he won't play, but even still Nebraska

(20:36):
opt outs. Running back Emmitt Johnson declared for the NFL Draft.
The right guard Rouco Spindler NFL Draft, and he's got
a finger injury. There are potential opt outs for Nebraska.
Deshaun Singleton, he's the safety. The left guard Henry loved Latowsky,
the edge Deson McCullough. He declared for the draft. He's
not on the depth chart as far as injuries. The

(20:58):
quarterback TJ. Ltti hamstring injury. The offensive tackle Gunner Gatula
last played in Week eight. Offensive tackle Teddy Perchotska last
played in Week seven. Rule doesn't know if Latif's gonna
be ready. If he can't go, they might be down
to Jalen Grahamstad not good. Nebraska did fight their defense coordinator,
John Butler earlier this month. They hired the San Diego

(21:20):
State defense coordinator to replace him. Phil Snow is going
to serve as the interim and of course, Rule fired
the offensive line and defensive line coaches, as well as
far as Utah is concerned. Left tackle kayleb Blomo he's
opted out. Right tackle Spencer Fano he has opted out.
Defensive end Logan Fano has opted out. And then there
are potential opt outs. Right the quarterback Devin dan Pierre,

(21:41):
linebacker Lander Barton, the safety Tyl Johnson, quarnerback Smith Snowden.
And you've got injuries as well. Defensive end John Henry
Daily is out for the year. The wide receiver Ryan Davis,
he missed the finale, so he is probably going to
miss here. The offensive lineman salatoa Moay, he missed the finale.

(22:06):
He played three hundred snaps. There are two hundred nine
and nine snaps this year. Morgan Scalley is going to
coach in the bowl game. It was going to be
Kyle Whittingham until he took the Michigan job. So now
Morgan Scalley going to go on and hop right in there.
This number opened at Utah minus fourteen and a half.
It got all the way up to seventeen and a half,
and then the Whittingham news broke and it's back down

(22:28):
to fourteen and a half total of forty nine and
a half. There, it's all the way up to fifty
and a half. So it went up a point. I
would expect that total to be lower. I am not
expecting Nebraska to be able to score very much. My
projected stat spread has Utah by seventeen point eight three
the last four weeks, I would have Utah by thirty
and a half power rating. I've only got Utah by ten.

(22:50):
But that's based on overall talent et cetera. Utah number
thirty five and overall team talent at on three Nebraska
number twenty two. But when you start looking at the
opt outs, at the injuries, et cetera, offensive tackles, guards,
et cetera, there's not a lot of defensive linemen that
are going to be out for Nebraska. They are number

(23:11):
nineteen in rushing success rate on offense. They are number
one twenty or sorry, one ten in rushing success rate
allowed Utah. So long as the quarterback plays Devin dan Pier,
they should be fine running the football. They they run
it over fifty eight percent of the time, almost fifty

(23:34):
nine percent of the time. They're number one in the country.
And yards per rush. They are number six in rushing explosiveness.
Nebraska cannot stop it. I don't know if Nebraska is
going to be able to get the ball back or not.
Both of these teams are outside the top seventy as
far as special team's efficiency, Utah number five and points
per scoring opportunity. Nebraska's defense number one fifteen, Nebraska number

(23:59):
fifty five points per scoring opportunity that has declined significantly
without Riola, and Utah's defense is number thirteen. Let's make
this as easy as possible. I don't think Nebraska is
going to be able to score, and I don't think
they're going to be able to stop Utah from scoring.
So and I don't think that Kyle Whittingham being gone

(24:22):
is going to be that big of a deal because
they all already knew that he was stepping down and
that Morgan Scalley was going to be their new head coach.
They all know this staff, they all know what's going on. Now,
there is a part of me that wonders, like Jason Beck,
the offensive coordinator, is going to Michigan from per reports, He's.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
Going to Michigan with Whittingham. What does that mean?

Speaker 1 (24:44):
And even if you do have a backup quarterback at Utah,
I still think they're going to be able to put
up points because they did it against Colorado. I mean,
the backup quarterback was outstanding. But I think Devin Dampier
is going to play here. We'll see, We'll see what happens. There,
but I this number is fourteen and a half. I

(25:05):
expected to go back up once people realize, oh wait,
Nebraska cannot stop the run at all, and that's all
Utah does. So give me the utes minus fourteen and
a half. I think this could get really ugly, but
I will take Utah to.

Speaker 2 (25:21):
Cover the number.

Speaker 1 (25:22):
Here on to Friday, January the second, and we've got
the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl RICE against Texas State.
This one at noon Central time, God's time zone on
ESPN and Texas State a twelve and a half to
thirteen and a half point favorite, depending on the book.
And we've got a total of fifty eight and a
half on this Rice was five and seven on the year.

(25:46):
There were five and six against the number five, six
and one against the number Texas State six and six,
and then went four and eight against the spread.

Speaker 2 (25:55):
This year.

Speaker 1 (25:56):
Rice zero to two in bowl games minus fourteen twenty twenty,
and Texas State won and one against the spread in
bowl game since twenty twenty plus three point three, So
Texas State shows up a little more in bowl games
than Rice has. Rice number one thirty in PPA margin.
Texas State is number thirty one. Texas State's numbers showed

(26:18):
that they probably should have been a little bit better
this year than they ended up being. This was better
than a six and six football team. Special teams efficiency
number sixty six for Texas State, number forty four for Rice.
Rice not great at really anything. They run the ball
almost seventy two percent of the time. Texas State is

(26:40):
not good at defending the run. The Texas State defense
is pretty bad, pretty bad. But the problem is that
Rice runs it a lot, and they're still not very
good right they They're not going to be able to
hold the ball for a long time. They they're number
one twenty in pace of play. Texas State is number
twenty one. Now, if they can hold on to the football,

(27:03):
if they can run it even a little bit, they
can keep it away from Texas State. The problem is
Rice is number one twenty in PBA allowed per pass,
Texas State is.

Speaker 2 (27:12):
Number twenty two.

Speaker 1 (27:14):
I'm I don't see how Rice stops Texas State from scoring.
This line opened at ten and a half. It's out
to twelve and a half thirteen and a half, so
it's almost in no man's land. But offensives like Rice
is okay as far as success rate goes on defense,

(27:34):
there are number fifty four and passing success allowed, but
they are number one twenty five in the yards allowed
per pass attempt, number one twenty four in QBR allowed.
Texas State is number nine and number eleven in those
and as far as passing explosiveness, Texas State number seventeen,
RICE number one twenty three. I think that's the biggest
thing you need to know. Texas State number eighteen in
points per scoring opportunity. RICE is number seventy nine in

(27:56):
points allowed per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Rice
number one oh seven in points per scoring opportunity, Texas
State number one oh six and points allowed. So the
fact that this line is under two touchdowns, like my
projected stat spread has Texas State minus thirteen and a
half ish almost fourteen last four weeks, has got Texas

(28:17):
State by almost thirty. My power rating only has Texas
State minus ten. Let's see Texas State. As far as
the portal, running back Jalen Jingkins he's in the portal,
that doesn't mean he's not gonna play. And for Rice,
the cornerback carried Crump, he got kicked off the team
in Week seven. The running back Dalen Alexander had seventy

(28:39):
four carries three hundred and ninety two yards. He's in
the portal, and their wide receiver Draden Dickman, he's in
the portal as well, So there's not a ton of
opt outs. Nothing too crazy here. I think Texas State's
gonna put up a ton of points. So I know
it's a big number, but the best number I can
get is twelve and a half. Me the Bobcats minus

(29:02):
twelve and a half. The AutoZone Liberty Bowl three thirty
pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN, and we've
got Navy and Cincinnati coming to Memphis for this ballgame.
Navy right now is a six and a half to
seven point favorite depending on the book, and a total
is a fifty three and a half to fifty four
and a half. On this it was a fifty five

(29:23):
and a half that has dropped a bit. Cincinnati opened
as the one and a half point favorite, now Navy
all the way out to a six and a half
to seven point favorite. As I mentioned, my projected stat
spread has Sincy minus three. My power rating has Sincey
minus three and a half last four weeks. I've got
Navy minus seven. As far as Navy is concerned, you
got the linebacker job or sorry job Grant he missed

(29:47):
the final two games. The cornerback Oneha he missed the
final two games. And the tight end Cody Howard last
played in Week nine.

Speaker 2 (29:53):
And potential opt outs.

Speaker 1 (29:55):
Although you know you rarely see this from service academies,
defensive tackle Landon Robinson is a potential opt out. As
far as the Cincinnati transfer portal, it is bananas. All
the guys that are transferring. They took him off the
bowl depth chart. The secondary is gonna be Thinn So
Navy is gonna be able to throw the ball a
little bit here. But the starting quarterback Brendon Swersby is

(30:19):
not gonna play. The starting safety Harrison, He's not gonna play.
Starting safety, Gola Callard not gonna play starting safety. Sank's
not gonna play. Starting cornerback, Logan Wilson is not gonna play.
The cornerback Arnold, the safety Barnes, depth, cornerback, Kay Stokes,
depth safety, Willie Godwin, defensive tackle Kamari Burns, defensive lineman

(30:39):
Michah Coleman. They are all in the portal. As far
as potential opt outs. The defensive tackle Dante Corleone, he's
not on the bowl depth chart.

Speaker 2 (30:48):
He declared for the NFL draft.

Speaker 1 (30:49):
And the linebacker Jake Golday, he declared for the NFL
Draft and he's not on the depth chart, or sorry, he.

Speaker 2 (30:55):
Is on the depth chart.

Speaker 1 (30:56):
So there's no real big injuries for Cincinnati, but they
got a bunch of guys that are just not going
to play here. And with Navy, I mean we saw
this with Army. They care, they want to be there.
Navy is let's see nine and two overall this season. Sorry,

(31:22):
that was before the Army game. Three and seven against
the spread this year, so not good. Cincinnati seven and
five straight up this year and looked a lot better
until late in the season. Bowl games Navy one and
zero against the spread since twenty twenty, although I feel
like they've been in a lot more games than that.

(31:44):
Cincinnati one and two against the spread in bowl games
since twenty twenty minus five point eight. This is where
the motivation stuff comes in, because Cincinnati should be favored,
the offense has been better all year, all that kind
of stuff. But if you don't have your dudes, like
you don't have your starting quarterback and the majority of
your defense is not going to be there. And the

(32:06):
defense was bad anyway, but imagine a bunch of backups
that don't really care about playing having to go against
this option offense. Navy runs the ball over seventy six
percent of the time. They are number two in yards
per rush, number three in ppa per rush, number three
in offensive line yards, and since he was already number
one fifteen in offensive line yards allowed, this this has

(32:30):
all the makings of the Army Yukon game that ended
up what forty one to sixteen something along those lines, Like,
I think Navy's gonna be able to put up some
crazy points. And Navy isn't terrible throwing the football, they
just don't do it a bunch. They're number two in
passing explosiveness. I mean, can you imagine you got everybody
up on the line of scrimmage and then you run
one guy out wide, Like, yeah, that's gonna be interesting,

(32:54):
gonna be interesting. I'm surprised that this is not out
past a touchdown at this point. I don't think Cincinnati
cares about being there. And if they don't care, then
I'm expecting Navy to put up a bunch of points.
I'm gonna go Navy minus six and a half. That's
the best number we can get right now, give me

(33:15):
the Midshipman minus six and a half. Why struggle doing
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Speaker 2 (33:27):
Save time, get it done right.

Speaker 1 (33:29):
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Speaker 2 (33:46):
Do me a favor.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
If you haven't, of course, subscribe to the podcast, leave
a nice five star written review at Apple Podcast, or
leave a comment on Spotify, etc. Whatever your podcast app
of choice is. Subscribe over there. I would love to
have you on the audio side because we do audio
only stuff as well, and you can only get it
over there, not here on YouTube, but you can get

(34:09):
it on the podcast. All the YouTube stuff ends up
going on the podcast anyway, so make sure you're subscribed
over there if you would so kindly. The Trust and
Will Holiday Bowl. This one is seven pm Central Time
on Fox on Friday, January The second, This is Arizona
and SMU. Arizona is currently a two and a half

(34:30):
to three point favorite total of fifty one and a
half on this and my projected stat spread has SMU
minus one point eighty three. My power rating has Arizona
minus one point two the last four weeks, I actually
have SMU minus two and a half on this SMU
number fourteen and PPA margin Arizona number thirty three. Arizona's
defense is number twenty one, But would you believe that

(34:54):
the defense for SMU is better on a predicted points
average basis Number thirteen in PPA allowed per drive for SMU,
number twenty one in PPA allowed per drive for Arizona.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
Kind of surprising.

Speaker 1 (35:10):
Straight the schedule for both these teams number sixty six
and number sixty three, so it's pretty even. Power rating
number twenty five against number twenty nine makes all the
sense in the world to me. Both of these teams
are outside the top one hundred as far as special
teams efficiency. SMU slightly more talented number thirty against number

(35:30):
sixty one for Arizona. Arizona potential opt outs the cornerback stukes,
the safety Genesis Smith, and their right tackle Bounds didn't
play in the final two games, the nose tackle Saveyah
he last played in week eleven. And then, of course
they've got their guard Michael Wooton, who only played two
hundred thirty snaps this year. He is in the transfer
portal as far as SMU is concerned. They're outside linebacker

(35:54):
DJ Warner, He's only played two hundred seven snaps this year.

Speaker 2 (35:56):
He's in the portal.

Speaker 1 (35:57):
And then you've got potential opt outs the wide receiver Brinson,
tight end RJ. Maryland, tight end Hibner, offensive guard Logan
par defensive lineman Jeff Mba, and safety Isaiah in Wacobia.

Speaker 2 (36:11):
Hope. Is that that right? Again?

Speaker 1 (36:12):
SMU fans correct me in the comments. I would love
to hear exactly how you're supposed to say some of
these names. The quarterback Kevin Jennings is going to play
in this game. So that is why this number has
not gone past three. It's still sitting right there where
people are expecting it to be very, very close. Both
of these teams great as far as turnovers go, turnover
margin number eight for SMU, number one for Arizona, Arizona's

(36:35):
number twenty two, and giveaways per game but number two
in takeaways. SMU number eighty in giveaways per game, number
three in takeaways per game, Arizona better as far as penalties,
number forty six to number one oh seven. There, let's
start off with SMU. On offense, they're pretty good throwing
the football. That's what Arizona defends best. As far as finishing,

(37:00):
SMU number fifty three in points for scoring opportunity, Arizona's
defense number forty three. There. On the other side of
the ball, Arizona pretty mediocre on offense. They throw the
ball more than they run it, which makes sense with
Noah Fafida, and you're gonna be able to have some
success against this SMU defense, I would believe, because they

(37:24):
are not great at defending the pass. Number seventy eight
in passing success allowed for SMU, Arizona number eighty two
in passing success rate. This is where you will have
success because SMU is number three in PPA allowed per
rush and they are number sixteen and rushing success allowed
Arizona's number eighty nine in rushing success As far as
finishing drives, Arizona number eighty four in points per scoring opportunity.

(37:49):
SMU is number nine in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
So this SMU defense is really good against the run
and they are okay against the pass.

Speaker 2 (37:58):
Five factors rank. Arizona is No.

Speaker 1 (38:00):
Seventeen SMU's number forty. But when you take a look
at this, and yes there are some potential opt outs
for SMU, I get it. But with Kevin Jennings and
the talent that they've assembled on that roster, I think
they're excited about this opportunity. I think they want to
get this. And this was Arizona minus three and a half.

(38:22):
It's at two and a half to three. Now I
think SMU shows up.

Speaker 2 (38:28):
I will take SMU.

Speaker 1 (38:29):
I think they're gonna be able to score some points
here and I don't know that Arizona will be able
to score on SMU. So with that, if I'm getting
a field goal, I'll go with the dog. Give me
SMU plus three. The Duke's Mayo Bowl seven pm Central Time,
God's Time Zone on ESPN. We got five and seven
Mississippi State going up against nine win Wake Forest or

(38:53):
wanting to be nine win Wake Forest.

Speaker 2 (38:54):
Sorry they're eight and four. I thought they got that
last win of the year. I forgot about that.

Speaker 1 (39:01):
The number here is Mississippi State minus three to minus
three and a half depending on the book. Total is
fifty three and a half to fifty four and a
half depending on the book. I've got State favored by
two points. Here power rating has State favored by almost
two points, but the last four weeks I've actually got
wake Forest favored by seventeen. This wake Forest defense is legit.

(39:22):
The difference is State is number thirteen in current strength
to schedule, wake Forest number seventy five, So there's a
huge difference there between the talent that these two teams
have played against. State is number twenty six and special
team sufficiency wake Forest number seventy. State is at number
twenty four and overall talent rank per on three Wake
Forest number seventy one.

Speaker 2 (39:43):
But the wake Forest.

Speaker 1 (39:44):
Defense is still a legit unit. The issue that you
might have here is wake Forest transfer portal. The defensive
tackle Ibarragba, he's in the portal. He might still play,
but we'll see. And the wide receivers Barnes and Mays,
they are both in the portal. The running back Demon Claiborne,

(40:06):
he declared for the NFL Draft, so he may not
play for wake Forest. You've still got the right tackle Famo,
and then the safety's Patterson Anderson that are potential opt
outs for this game. And then of course wake Forest injuries,
the edge got Kuoth correct me in the comments, the
offensive guard George at Ste the wide receiver Michael Mays

(40:26):
that I just mentioned there. Of course Mississippi State potential
opt outs, the safety Isaac Smith and then the safety
Tony Mitchell is in the transfer portal. As far as injuries.
Linebacker Gullet last played in week twelve and the Mississippi
State fired the defensive coordinator Coleman Hustler. Zach Barnett is
going to return to Starkville. But we don't know exactly

(40:50):
who's gonna call the defense in this game. We don't
know who's going to start at quarterback for Mississippi State.
This might be Blake Shapan's last game, so he could
be the starter, or Camaro Taylor who started against Ole
Miss he could start at quarterback. So either way, they've
got experience there one way or the other. This is
interesting to see an eight win team that is an

(41:11):
underdog to a five and seven team that shouldn't have
even made a bowl game. But when you look at
the overall talent and whatnot. I mean, it does make sense,
especially when you look at the strength of schedules. I'm
partially surprised at this, and yet at the same time,
I feel like Mississippi State wants to be there. State

(41:34):
I think is gonna be able to throw the ball
a little bit here, and I think they're gonna be
able to run the ball a little bit as well.
When you look at points per scoring opportunity, Mississippi State
number twenty three and wake Forest is number twenty eight.
When you look at you know, special teams, et cetera,
turnover margin that's better in State's favor, wake Forest number

(41:55):
one twelve and giveaways per game this year just gave
it away at the worst possible opportunity, and their offense
is not very good. They do run the ball, but
their number one sixteen and rushing success rate Mississippi State
is number one fifteen five factors rank, wake Forest is
significantly better. But when you do five factors plus talent,
State number twenty nine, wake Forest number sixty seven. So

(42:16):
there's a huge difference there. Wake Forest number one twenty.
In points for scoring opportunity, Mississippi State is number seventy
ten points allowed for scoring opportunity. I think that State finishes,
drives better. I think Wake Forest will probably turn the
football over at some point. And I think that State

(42:37):
both teams I do think want to be there. I
just think State is significantly more talented. So I'm gonna
go with the favorite here. I mean, it's a Duke
Mayo Bowl, it's a big time spot. I'll take Mississippi State.
Best number I can get us three, give me the
Bulldogs minus three. All right, let's recap this bad boy
Iowa plus four and a half, Duke minus three, Michigan

(42:57):
plus seven and a half, Utah minus fourteen and a half,
Texas State minus twelve and a half, Navy minus six
and a half, SMU plus three, and Mississippi State minus three.
Subscribe to the podcast, of course, make sure and subscribe
for the bonus content and to support the show. Help
you boy out go to buy me a coffee dot com,
slash winning cures, the easyurl of course, BETTINGCFB dot com,

(43:20):
and if you have not already, make sure you are
subscribed to the channel, that you like the video, and
that you jump in the comments and give me your picks.
Tell me where I'm wrong, tell me what information I've
got incorrect.

Speaker 2 (43:33):
I would love to hear from you.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
In any way that you want to. If you want
to reach out to me through email. Gary at Winning
Cures Everything dot Com is the email. I am feeling
a little bit better, Thank goodness. I'm ready for some
playoff games or ready for more bowl games. It's gonna
be a fun week, but the clock is winding down
on the twenty twenty five college football season. So with
that said, let's get out of here for this one.

(43:57):
Take care of yourself, take care of each other. God
bless college football, and hopefully all of your tickets cash
this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, subscribe,
leave a review or comment, follow at Gary WCEE on X,
and check out the web store.

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Every Bowl Pick Dec 31 - Jan 2 | Full College Football Predictions