Week 12 College Football Predictions for 18 More Games! 2025

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's week twelve and we've got eighteen other games that
we need to make picks on.

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Well, come in.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
It's Winning Cures Everything. It's college football podcast. I'm your host,
Gary Siegers at Gary WCEE on all the different socials.
Obviously most active on X, even though not all that
active on X for the most part. Is what it is.
It's been a wonderful week thus far. Hopefully you are
having a wonderful week wherever you might be. And we

(01:30):
have got some games to go over. If you haven't already,
go ahead and check out the midweek video or the
Weeknight Games video, the ten Biggest Games video, and now
I've got eighteen other games that we're gonna kind of
rapid fire through. Hopefully you're ready for that. Don't forget
subscribe to the channel like the video, and of course

(01:50):
check out Buy Me a Coffee dot com slash Winning
Cures to get these spreadsheets and whatnot. Let's dive into it.
Game number one eleven A Central Time on the Big
Ten Network. Indiana, the number two ranked Hoosiers are hosting
the Wisconsin Badgers, who got a nice upset win last week.
Currently Wisconsin the number two strength schedule in the country.

(02:13):
They are doing their thing Indiana right now. A twenty
nine and a half to thirty and a half point
home favorite total of forty three and a half to
forty four and a half. Indiana typically beats the mess
out of teams at home. They have basically all season.
There's not a huge talent differential between these two. Indiana

(02:33):
number forty six, Wisconsin number thirty two, so Wisconsin technically
the more talented team. They have technically played the stronger
strength of schedule, But ma'am Wisconsin number one twenty nine
and PBA margin Indiana number four, and last week Wisconsin
good gracious. Their leading passer was their punter who had

(02:53):
a fake punt that he threw for twenty four yards
on Now granted it was snowing, etc. They still found
a way to get the win thirteen to ten over Washington,
but that one was at home in Camp Randle. This one,
of course, in Bloomington. Looking at it, Indiana number four
in points per scoring opportunity on offense, Wisconsin's defense number
twenty four, so Wisconsin still pretty good at keeping you

(03:16):
off the scoreboard. They are number ninety five and defensive
red zone conversion percentage, but number fifty one in defensive
red zone touchdown rate. Indiana on the other hand, number
one in defensive touchdown rate in the red zone. Just bananas. Wisconsin,
number one twenty in points per game margin. Indiana's number one.

(03:37):
Indiana beats the mess out of teams, but they are
banged up a little bit. Indiana four and two against
the spread at home so far this year. In Wisconsin
two to one against the spread. Even though they are
four and five against the number overall on the season,
they seem to play better on the road. Thus far.
They are plus five on the road, for whatever that

(03:59):
is worth. Points for scoring opportunity, Wisconsin is dead last
at finishing drives. Indiana is number one. I don't know
how Wisconsin puts up points here, but also I think
that Indiana could run into some problems scoring here. I

(04:21):
think the number gets a little outrageous. My power rating
has Indiana by twenty. My stats projected spread does have
Indiana by twenty nine and a half. The last four
weeks number has Indiana by forty three point eighty seven.
I think I might be putting it mildly about Wisconsin
not being able to score. They've been shut out multiple

(04:42):
times this year. Think it could happen again, and even
with Indiana banged up. I just I think they could
still get to thirty four Wisconsin, maybe kick a field
goal something like that. So if this thing hit thirty one,
I might think the other way. You're gonna be hard
pressed to find me betting against Indiana at home. So

(05:04):
give me the Hoosiers minus thirty and a half. Game
number two South Carolina heading two Texas A and M.
This one eleven am Central time, God's time zone on ESPN.
Right now A and M and eighteen and a half
point to nineteen and a half point home favorite total
forty seven and a half to forty eight and a half.
And we didn't have the game pulled up, did we? Good? Gracious,

(05:29):
So power rating have got A and M by seventeen
point seven, last four weeks has got A and M
by seventeen point five seven, and the projected stats spread
has A and M by twenty point six seven. Now,
this thing opened at seventeen and a half. It has
been bet up since the forty eight and a half.
It's sat there for a minute. It's still available at

(05:51):
some spots, but there is a little bit of money
on the under with this South Carolina number four and
current strength to schedule. A and M number twenty nine
and PPA margin ninety for South Carolina, just ridiculous. The
South Carolina defense is not bad, like I don't think
that's an issue. As far as finishing drives, A and
M's offense number ten, South Carolina number eighty five. South

(06:15):
Carolina is number sixteen in defensive red zone touchdown rate.
A and M is number ninety eight in defensive touchdown rate.
So as bad as this South Carolina offense has been,
you know, they did fire Mike Shula. They are coming
off of a bye week. What should we expect from
the South Carolina offense? Not totally certain. I keep waiting,

(06:38):
and I'm just like everybody else. You just kind of
keep waiting around to see is A and M gonna
blow it? They haven't thus far. This looks like a
completely different kind of team. Oko and company are doing
a fantastic job Colin Klin with this offense. Jay Bateman's defense, though,
leaving a little bit to be desired. They're number twenty
in defensive success rate overall, but number sixty two in

(07:00):
PPA allowed per drive that's predicted points added. They are
number one twenty six in PPA allowed per rush find
that interesting number ninety seven in rushing explosiveness. Now, South
Carolina is bad at everything, but they are talented enough
number eighteen and overall talent rank A and M is
number ten. This is the kind of team that can

(07:23):
muck things up. Yeah, some teams have been covering against them.
There's just a lot of talent here and A and M.
I mean that November air gets a little more thick
this time of year, especially when you're chasing after an
undefeated season when you average about eight and four, like

(07:44):
it's been a long time since A and M had
a ten win season. There. I I think sleepy early
slate South Carolina can make them at least uncomfortable enough
that I think they can hang within nineteen and a half.
I mean, this number just keeps on ballooning. If it

(08:06):
gets up to twenty one by game day, I'll be
on this one. But as far as the show goes
right now, I'll take South Carolina plus nineteen and a half.
Game number three eleven AM Central Time, God's Time Zone
on FS one. Arizona is going to Cincinnati. Arizona big
win over Kansas last week, and right now my stat's

(08:30):
pretty well. Let's tell you what the actual number is.
Since he minus six and a half right now, fifty
six to fifty six and a half the total on
this one, I've got Sinci by five point one six
the power rating has since he by three point two
last four weeks has got Cincy by a little over
a field goal. Coming off of a bye week, Cincinnati
got absolutely humbled by Utah. Arizona's offense doesn't exactly leave

(08:54):
a lot. Let me take that back. It leaves a
lot to be desired. How's that number one twelve passing
success rate, number sixty six running success So we'll start
with them on the offensive side of the ball. The
Wildcats are number thirty in PPA per rush. They're number
thirteen rushing explosiveness number fifteen, in offensive line yards number

(09:15):
forty nine and stuff rate allowed. Since He's defense is
number one eighteen in offensive line yards allowed number one
thirty one and stuff rate number ninety nine and PPA
per rush. Arizona doesn't like to run it a bunch,
but I think it would be wise for them to
do it as often as possible in this ballgame. As

(09:36):
far as finishing drives, Arizona number eighty two in points
for scoring opportunity since he's defense number seventy five. Okay,
turnover margin Arizona number ten since he number forty nine
since he doesn't turn the ball over, but they also
are really bad at generating turnovers, so penalties per game

(09:59):
airs on number fifty nine and since he number one
seventeen when Cincy is on offense. Here's the thing. They
are really good throwing the ball and running the ball
Arizona's number ninety seven and rushing success right allowed, but
they are number forty two in yards allowed per rush,
So sincey I think can run the football on them.

(10:19):
Arizona's defense really good against the pass number six and
have a great since he's number sixteen, and have it
allowed if Arizona can get home at the quarterback, yes,
since he could end up having a lot of trouble.
This thing came up a little bit. Yeah, let me
take that back. I think it went down and then
it came up. But it's since he minus six and
a half is the number, I'm gonna trust the power rating.

(10:42):
I'm gonna trust the last four weeks, and even the
stats projected spread doesn't have it at six. I think
this is too many points. I think Arizona's good enough
even on the road. You look at their number, they're
one and two against the spread on the road. But
since he is only three and two against the spread
at home, so it's not like there's a clear advantage
either way. Special teams in favor of Cincinnati number twenty

(11:05):
three to number one hundred. I still think Arizona can
hang around here. These are the kind of big twelve
games that are supposed to come down to the wire.
I think this is probably a field goal game, So
I mean we could be looking at thirty one to
twenty seven something along those lines, and that would not

(11:25):
shock me in the slightest. So give me Arizona to
cover six and a half. Arizona plus six and a half.
Game Number four eleven forty five AM Central Time, God's
time zone on the SEC network. Arkansas traveling down to
Baton Rouge to take on Frank Harrison company. Boy, that's
a mess down there isn't LSU currently favored by five

(11:47):
and a half total fifty six and a half on
this Arkansas has not won a conference game yet, and
yet they are number ten in PPA per drive on offense,
number nine in offensive success rate, LSU gave it their
best shot against Alabama last week. They did bench Garrett Nusmeyer.
When your offensive line cannot block, what do you do?

(12:11):
You go to the mobile quarterback, which is exactly what
they did. And Michael van Buren is playing. I don't
know if he's necessarily starting this weekend, but if you
want to be able to put up points, although Garrettnussemeyer
probably would be able to put up some points against
this Arkansas defense number one twenty seven in PPA allowed
for drive yikes, just rough. LSU is number eighty one

(12:36):
in PPA p drive on offense, number forty seven on defense.
I'm curious how much is left in the tank for Arkansas?
Are they just going to fight, fight, fight? You know
they they have gotten beat by three so many times.
They did lose to Auburn by more than that. But man,
they gave the ball away a lot. And I mean

(12:56):
you look at this turnover margin number one twenty for Arkansas.
They just turned ball over in the worst possible spots
number one ten and giveaways per game. LSU was number
thirty five and turnover marchin LSU not great on special
teams number eighty one. Arkansas's number sixteen. Both of these
teams inside the top thirty as far as overall talent rank,

(13:16):
but LSU is number five in that when Arkansas has
the ball, there are number twenty two in points per
scoring opportunities, so they're really good at finishing drives. LSU's
defense number fifty six. LSU is number ninety five in
defensive red zone touchdown rate. That's not good because Arkansas
is number one in offensive red zone touchdown rate. On

(13:38):
the other side, when LSU has the ball, they can't
run it, although they might have some success here because
good gracious yards per rush. LSU is number one sixteen.
Arkansas's defense is number one thirteen, So if you were
ever going to be able to move the football on
the ground, it would be in this spot. Passing the football,

(14:01):
LSU throws it over fifty eight percent of the time.
They are number thirty six in passing success rate, but
they are number one thirty in passing explosiveness. Arkansas is
number one thirty one in passing explosiveness allowed. So this
Arkansas defense is really really bad. I've got LSU by
five point eight four, so I'm right on the number.
My power rating has LSU by five point six. My
last four weeks has LSU by eight point twenty six.

(14:26):
Frank Harris first game coaching in Baton Rouge. You gotta
think they're going to be fired up for this. They
want to get a good win. I mean, I'm right
on the number I'll go with the last four weeks.
I wonder how much Arkansas has left in the tank.
That's what I'm curious about. This was a night game,

(14:49):
it'd almost be a no brainer. But I will take
LSU minus five and a half. I don't feel great
about it because you never know what to expect from
either one of these teams. But I will take the
Tigers is minus five and a half. Game five noon
Central Time on TNT, West Virginia goes to Arizona State.
Big win for West Virginia over Colorado. Just last week

(15:11):
Arizona State and eleven and a half point home favorite
total of forty eight and a half. Remember this is
the Jeff Simms Show. Sam Levitt is out for the
year with an injury. My projected stat spread has Arizona
State by nine and a half. My power rating has
Arizona State by eight point six. My last four weeks
has Arizona State by almost thirteen points twelve point five nine.

(15:33):
West Virginia on the road two and three against the spread,
Arizona State at home two to two and one against
the spread. So neither team a real advantage when it
comes to that five factors rank with West Virginia is
actually better number seventy nine, Arizona State number eighty five.
Some of the Arizona State wins make no sense to me.

(15:55):
How did this team beat Texas Tech? You had everybody healthy.
I understand that, but like a just don't understand it.
They are number one thirty six and special teams efficiency.
There are number seventy four in ppa margin. Their defense
has played a little bit better as of late, number
fifty six, but they are also number eighty one defensive

(16:16):
success right allowed number one to one against the run.
If you are if you're doing that against the run,
Rich Royden Company run the ball over sixty percent of
the time. Scottie Fox looking a lot better at quarterback.
They've got two straight wins. They need to win their
last two in order to get to a bowl game.

(16:36):
I don't think it's going to happen, but you know,
turnover margin number thirty five for Arizona State number fifty
seven four West Virginia. West Virginia just overall not a
great football team, but they are pretty good against the run,
and that is exactly what Arizona State is going to
try and do. The number twenty nine in PPA ru
per rush excuse me, number thirty five in yards per rush,

(16:58):
West Virginia is number thirty six both of those metrics,
so this is interesting. West Virginia number twenty two and
stuff rate number thirteen in offensive line yards allowed, Arizona
State thirty five and sixty three in those points. For
scoring opportunity, Arizona State a number one fifteen in finishing drives.

(17:19):
West Virginia's defense number seventy three. On the other side,
West Virginia number eighty, Arizona State's defense number eighty. This
feels like a close game to me. I understand. You know,
my projected stat spread has it at nine and a half.
That's lower than the eleven and a half. I'm gonna
go with the Mountaineers. I know they hadn't played great

(17:41):
on the road by any stretch of the imagination. I
know that their PBA margin is significantly lower than Arizona
State I just don't know what Arizona State really has
left to play for. I guess I mean they've only
got two losses in the Big twelve. And I do
like Ken Dillingham, but Rich Rod's been doing this a
long time. I will take West Virginia to cover this number.

(18:03):
I think the number has just gotten a little too big.
Give me the Mountaineers plus eleven and a half. Are
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Speaker 1 (19:40):
If you haven't already subscribed to the channel, like the video,
and of course give me your picks in the comments.
I want to know what you're taking on some of these,
so go ahead and tell me. And if you want
to tell me on all of them, I'm totally fine
with that too, But jump in the comments and help
me out here. Game number six we moved to the
Big twelve two thirty pm Central Time on Fox Heads
two Texas Tech. Massive win for Texas Tech last week.

(20:03):
This is certainly a letdown spot after a big win
over byu MAN this number, Texas Tech is favored by
twenty three and a half to twenty four depending on
the book. Forty seven and a half to forty eight
is the total, so the total has come down some.
U CF's defense actually pretty good, number twenty three and

(20:24):
ppa allowed per drive. They are number twenty seven in
points allowed per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech number fifty five.
On the other side, points per scoring opportunity, Texas Tech's
defense is number eight. UCF's offense number ninety two, So
I don't think u CF is going to have a
lot of success being able to score here. UCF number

(20:44):
one twenty five in offensive red zone touchdown rate. Yikes,
there's a reason why Tech is favored here by this much.
They are six to zero against the spread at home.
U CF is one and two against the spread. On
the road, you know you're talking and plus six point four,
and the numbers were pretty inflated to begin with. You

(21:04):
c F minus ten point three against the number thus
far on the road, you know, Texas Tech number seventy
in turnover margin. They're number three in takeaways per game.
I start looking into this in the offense for Texas
Tech they they're better at throwing the football than they
are running it. They're number eighty one in offensive line

(21:27):
yards number seventy eight and stuff right allowed you sef's
defense is number eighty and number ninety two in those stats,
Texas Tek number fifty two and PPA per rush you
CFS defense is number seventy eight, rushing success tech number
fifty six. You see F number one oh seven as
far as their defense is concerned, But when it comes

(21:47):
to passing you, SF's defense is number nine and PPA
allowed per pass Tech is number twenty six. Baron Morton
still does not look super healthy, maybe not making the
best decisions overall, And yet I don't think it's necessarily
gonna matter. The question is whether or not they can score,
because I expect UCF maybe put up ten points. My

(22:09):
projected stat spread has Texas Tech by twenty one point five,
right or twenty one point six, I guess if you
want around it. Power rating has TechEd by seventeen last
four weeks has TechEd by twenty three and a half.
So my projected score here is about thirty eight to
sixteen and a half somewhere around there. And so if

(22:31):
u CF it's going to put up maybe two touchdowns.
Can Texas Tech get over forty eh? I don't know.
I don't necessarily trust them right now, not with the
way that they're looking. And UF's defense is not terrible,

(22:53):
and they're pretty good against the pass. They are number
twenty in passing explositveness allowed typically, how Tech is able
to run up scores and whatnot. I think the UCFS
defense will be able to hold on to them a
little bit because it's a leadown spot. You know, Tech
got through their biggest hurdle. Now they're you know, everybody's

(23:16):
got them in the playoff, everybody's got them winning the
Big twelve, all that, and they are at home. Maybe
it's a little easier to relax here. I think this
number has just gotten a little too big. I might
be the only person on the planet that takes UCF.
But since it's now at twenty four, give me the
Golden Knights or the Knights, I guess UCF Knights plus

(23:37):
twenty four two thirty pm Central Time on ESBN NC
State heads to Miami. Miami currently a fourteen and a
half point favorite at home totally fifty five and a
half to fifty six, depending on which book, and my
status projected spread has Miami by seventeen point four. My
power rating has Miami by fourteen. My last four weeks
only has Miami by ten ten point eight one in

(24:01):
c State, like Miami back up there, I guess projected
to win. I guess when the ACC saw him in
the playoff bracket tonight. I'm recording this late on Tuesday evening,
so you know you're back to having expectations again. N
C State's defense really bad. They are number one oh
five and PPA allowed for drive this projected points added,

(24:23):
our predicted points added, whatever you want to call it.
They are number sixty eight against the pass, but they
are number thirty three in defensive success rate allowed overall.
Miami number nineteen, an offensive success rate number fourteen and
defensive success rate. NC State's offense pretty good, but really
they're best at throwing the football. Well, Miami is really
good at defending the past number twelve in yards allowed

(24:46):
per attempt, number twenty one in QBR, allowed, number twenty
nine in passing success rate allowed, NC State number nineteen,
and PBA per pass number twenty nine and yards per
pass attept number twenty five in QBR and number thirty
eight in passing success rate, but they are number eighty
six and have it allowed. If Miami can get to

(25:07):
the quarterback CJ. Bailey is gonna have a long, long
day now. On the other side, well, let's look at
finishing drives in C State. They're number one oh four
in scoring opportunities per game, so only five point five
to six drives per game do they get a first
down inside the opponent forty They're number eighteen in points
per scoring opportunities, so they're able to finish drives when

(25:28):
they get down there. Number six in the country and
offensive red zone touchdown rate. Miami is only number fifty
three in defensive touchdown red zone rate. On the other side,
Miami number twenty in points per scoring opportunity in C
State's defense number ninety six in C State allows thirty
point six points per game. I think this Miami offense

(25:50):
could eat them alive. In the Miami defense probably not
gonna let them score a whole lot, I would not imagine,
and so especially once they get down close to the
goal line like n C State went off on Georgia Tech.
If there's one thing that you can say about this
football season, is that hardly anybody is consistent. N C

(26:11):
State good game against Georgia Tech Miami. They've been looking
to bounce back quite a bit. They did well against Stanford,
they did well last week against Syracuse, got fired up
against that bunch against fran Brown. But part of me
wonders if this number maybe isn't high enough, because I

(26:36):
think Miami could absolutely shut down that NC State offense
and they're gonna be able to put up points on
this defense. N C State is not great at generating turnovers.
That seems to be how teams are able to beat
Miami or stay within a number against Miami. N C
State number one O nine and take aways per game
their number ninety three and interceptions thrown per pass our

(26:56):
interceptions gained per pass defended. I don't expect Carson Beck
to throw a lot of picks here. Miami number ten
and five. Factors rank, NC State number fifty eight, first
half point margin Miami fourteen, n C State number ninety four.
You know in Miami four and three against the spread

(27:17):
at home. NC State is bad on the road. Number one, Well, sorry,
they were one and three against the spread at minus
six point five on the road I'll take Miami to
be able to handle this. I know it's weird, It's November.
Mario does not covering November. This feels like the kind
of game where he would though, So I will take
the Hurricanes minus fourteen and a half. Game number eight,

(27:40):
two thirty pm Central Time on CBS, the three and
six Penn State and Indie Lions visit the three and
six Michigan State Spartans. Somebody is being eliminated from a
bowl game on Saturday. Penn State has lost six straight games.
They have not beaten an FBS opponent this year. They
were right there with Indiana, and how much of a

(28:03):
letdown was that really? Penn State favored by seven to
seven and a half depending on the book total of
forty nine and a half to fifty and a half.
Same thing there. My status projected spread has Penn State
favor by ten. Power rating has Penn State by nine.
Last four weeks has Penn State by three point eight three.
Aiden Chiles has been benched. The offense has gotten a

(28:24):
little bit better for Michigan State. Michigan State is at home,
but they are one and four against the spread. At home,
they cover On the road, they cannot cover at home
minus eight point four Penn State one and two against
the spread. On the road, they are minus eleven point
seven in the spots. Now, part of that was the

(28:46):
Ohio State game, but also part of that was the
UCLA game on the road where they were favored by
twenty four and lost the game outright. That'll kill your numbers.
Kill them. Penn State pretty good against the run, are
pretty good running the football. Will say that I don't
know about against the run as far as when they
are on offense. First off, they're number eight in special

(29:08):
team's efficiency, number seventy five for Michigan State, so that's
certainly not good. Penn State is still the more talented team.
I had looked for Penn State to run the football
a lot. Here. They are number twenty eight in PBAPRI
rush Michigan State number one twelve offensive line yards, they're

(29:30):
both number forty six. But stuff rate or well stuff
rate allowed for Penn State, it's number twenty seven. Stuff
rate for Michigan State's defense is number one oh four.
Standard down success Penn State number thirty eight, Michigan State
number one nineteen on defense. I think Penn State can
stay ahead of the teams, I don't expect them to

(29:52):
be able to throw the football very much at all.
They already throw at only forty six percent of the time.
It might be less than that here, but even then
you should still have some success against this Michigan State defense.
On the other side, Michigan State is let's see number
eighty nine PBA per rush. There are number sixty five
and PBA per pass. The pass defense is the thing

(30:14):
that's actually really good for Penn State number thirty three
in yards allowed per attempt, number twenty two and pass
rate number sixty five, in passing success number forty two.
In passing explosiveness allowed, Michigan State is number sixty five,
sixty three, fifty nine, and seventy nine and then eighty
nine and passing explosiveness in their passing metrics, Penn State
number thirty three in offensive success rate, Michigan State number

(30:38):
one oh nine in defensive success rate. I think Penn
State's actually gonna put up some point here. Just a
overall team, Michigan State number one oh five and PPA
margin Penn State number fifty three. These are two bad
football teams, and yet Penn State still I think pretty
good overall five factors rank. I don't know how it's possible.

(31:02):
Penn State is number twelve, Michigan State is number one
oh two. I think with Jim Knowles and Andy cotal Nikki,
they're gonna be able to win this game. I think
they can win the game going away. So I will
take Penn State to win their first FBS game of
the year, and I think that they will cover doing it,

(31:23):
partly because of how bad Michigan State has been at home.
I'll take Penn State best number I can get right
now with seven, give me the Ninny Allions game number nine.
That's right, two thirty pm Central Time on FS one.
Maryland heads to Illinois. Illinois right now a fourteen and
a half to fifteen and a half point home favorite

(31:44):
total of fifty two and a half to fifty three
and a half. Illinois is four and one against the
spread at home. Maryland two and one against the spread
on the road. Found that number two be very interesting Maryland.
It feels like, other than the Indiana game, and then
of course last week against Rutgers, the wheels kind of

(32:05):
fell off for Maryland last week. But this feels like
the kind of game where you know Maryland is four
and five. They need two more wins to make it
to a ball game. Can you surprise Illinois. Illinois seems
to have one of these games in there basically every
year that they lose that they shouldn't. Maryland's offense is

(32:27):
not very good, but you know number sixty eight passing
success rate, Illinois defense number one thirty three. I do
think Maryland and elite Washington are going to be able
to throw the football on this Illinois defense. The Illinois
secondary has been a disaster now they've had a bunch
of injuries and whatnot. But still on the other side

(32:48):
of the ball, Maryland's defense is actually not bad, number
twenty four in PPA allowed per drive, they are number
forty nine and defensive success rate allowed. You got strength, strength,
weakness on weakness here Illinois defense number one, twenty eight
in PBA allowed per drive and yet they're sitting at
six and three thus far on the season. Weird spot

(33:12):
in the calendar for these two Maryland second straight road
game they had to play at Rutgers. Last week they
got demolished at home by Indiana of the week before.
My last four weeks has Illinois I favored by fifteen
and a half. Power rating has Illinois by eleven point eight.
Projected stat spread has Illinois by eleven point four. Points

(33:33):
per scoring opportunity in Illinois offense number seventeen, Maryland's defense
number twenty eight in points allowed per scoring opportunity and
on the other side, Maryland's offense number one oh seven
in points per scoring opportunity, Illinois defense one twenty six
and points allowed per scoring opportunity. Maryland, I mean, just

(33:56):
can't finish in the red zone, can't finish drives, and
yet Illinois can't stop anybody from scoring. On the other side,
offensive red zone touchdown rate, Illinois is number forty six,
Maryland's defense number sixteen. Yeah, this thing's at fifty four
and a half. My projected total on this is forty
six and a half, So I would expect under But

(34:19):
it kind of depends on whether or not Maryland continues
to play like they have been. I think they show
up here. I think this is one of those spots.
I will take Maryland. I mean, the number I think
has just gotten outrageous. Fifteen and a half is the
biggest number we can get. I'll take Maryland. Yeah, I
don't think I'm scared of that, so give me the
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Speaker 1 (36:29):
Number ten two thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone
on ESPN plus. You gon need your streamer for this one.
Appstate goes to James Madison, James and Madison a twenty
one to twenty one and a half point home favorite
total of fifty three and a half to fifty four. Okay, okay,
really big number, especially for Appstate, But this Upstate team

(36:52):
is nothing right home about. There are four and five
thus far against the spread. On the road app State
two and two, they are minus one point eight, and
good gracious James Madison is three and one against the
spread at home plus ten point eight. They get to
a point where they can kind of waylay teams and

(37:13):
their offensive numbers have gotten way better, way way better
if they If they decide that they're just gonna run
the football here, App State cancelo them down. Appstate's defense
number nineteen in PPA allowed for rush, number twenty six
in yards allowed per rush, and they are number thirteen
in rushing explosives allowed. They're only number sixty five in

(37:33):
rushing success rate. James Madison's offense is good running the football,
number thirty one in PPA b rush, number eighteen in
yards per rush, number forty three in rushing success right,
number thirty five in rushing explosiveness. I think App State
can kind of line up and man up with them.
James Madison is pretty good at throwing the football, but
they do it about thirty eight percent of the time.

(37:54):
They are number twenty six and passing success rate. App
State's offense number ninety five, number thirty nine, and PBA
per pass. App State's defense is number ninety seven. You're
looking at the number forty two PPA per drive offense
in James Madison, number eighty three PBA per drive defense
in app State. On the other side of the ball,

(38:16):
when app State has it, I don't know how they
score like I'm looking at numbers. I don't know how
they score points per scoring opportunity. App State is number
seventy six. James Madison is number twenty nine scoring opportunities
per game. James Madison only allows four drives per game

(38:39):
where the opponent gets a first down inside their forty
yard line, and their number twenty nine at allowing points
whenever they do get down there. App State is number
sixty seven in scoring opportunities per game, number seventy six
in points per scoring opportunity. I don't see it, but
I will tell you that this number has been inflated.

(39:02):
Five factors hrank James Madison number thirty five, ugh good, gracious.
Number one oh four for Abstate just really not good.
And Appstate technically is the more talented team overall, which
is terrifying to think about. This number started at nineteen

(39:22):
and a half. It's gotten up to twenty one and
a half. I do still think that the number has
gotten a bit too big. Part of me wonders about
the rankings. Right, So my projected stat spread has James
Madison by eighteen and a half. Power rating has James
Madison by sixteen point four, But the last four weeks
numbers would have James Madison by almost twenty nine points,

(39:44):
so I get why this thing would go up to
twenty one and a half. But James Madison only won
loss on the season, number one fifteen in current strength
to schedule, and when the playoff rankings were brought out tonight, eh,
how does James Madison react? Right? Do the Dukes run

(40:05):
up the score here and try and find a way
because South Florida was in the rankings with two losses
as the number twenty fourteen, which means that if they
went out, they would get the group of five playoff
bid even with two losses. James Madison, however, eh, you know,

(40:28):
how do they respond to this? I think the number
has gotten a little bit inflated. We saw James Madison
favored by a bunch of points a couple of years
ago when Kurt Signetti was still there and app State
now they had Joey agwellar at the time. But app
State went in there and won the game in overtime.

(40:49):
I think the numbers too big, and then once it
crossed three touchdowns, it was time to come back the
other way. I will take app State plus twenty one
and a half. I think they show in this one
game number eleven to the AAC North Texas hosting no
North Texas heading to UAB. How bet we actually pull

(41:10):
up the game here. This one is one pm Central
Time on ESPN Plus. Again, gonna need your streamers for
this one. I just wanted to talk about North Texas.
I mean I probably could have talked about Memphis and
East Carolina, probably could have talked about any other number
of games two lane in Florida Atlantic or whoever it is.

(41:32):
But instead I'm going to talk about North Texas because
good gracious, number twenty three in PPA margin, number fourteen
in PBA margin per drive on offense, they are number
eleven in offensive success rate. Drew Mestemaker is awesome, just
point blank. And the fact that UAB cannot stop the

(41:53):
pass now they can't really stop anything, which is part
of the problem here. North Texas, by the way, favored
by eighteen and a half total of sixty nine and
a half on this I've only got North Texas favored
by fourteen and a half. My power rating has North
Texas by twelve point four. My last four weeks has
North Texas by thirteen and a half. And yet the

(42:15):
eighteen and a half does look juicy because when you
look at points per game margin, North Texas averages over
forty four points per game. Uab's defense gives up over
thirty seven points per game. You're talking about number two
in points per game against, number one thirty two in
points per game allowed. North Texas's offense, number eight in

(42:37):
points per scoring opportunity, uab's defense number one thirty two.
On the other side of the ball, North Texas's defense
is not great at defending the run, and UAB I
think can run the football number twenty one in offensive
line yards and North Texas's defense number one twenty two.
I think UAB will be able to put up some

(42:58):
points here. Question is how many points can they put
up and can they keep up with North Texas. UAB
is number eighty three points per scoring opportunity, North Texas
number eighty eight in points allowed per scoring opportunity, turnover
margin North Texas number four, UAB number one twenty Like,
there's a lot of things that point to North Texas

(43:22):
being able to run them out of their own stadium,
but this UAB team has been a little bit better
as of late. North Texas. Maybe they want to run
the score up. Maybe they don't. They're looking to get
into the conference championship game, is what it is. I'm
going to trust the numbers. I know it feels weird,

(43:46):
but I am going to trust the numbers. I probably
should have been doing that more this year, but especially
when there's, you know, a four point gap between the two.
North Texas is doing all this against the number one,
twenty six current strength of schedule. I think it's too
many points. I will bet on you Ab man. That

(44:08):
feels weird. Yeah, I'll take you Ab plus eighteen and
a half. I think the number is too big, and
this allows it to where you know, that total was
seventeen and a half, it's come down to sixty nine
and a half. I don't trust my totals as far
as G fourteen or G six, G five, whatever it

(44:28):
is teams.

Speaker 11 (44:30):
But.

Speaker 1 (44:32):
You know I can. I can cover this game with
North Texas winning by seventeen eighteen. You know, give me
a forty eight to thirty kind of game and that
might make sense. Give me a forty one to twenty

(44:52):
four something like that, and I could totally see you
Ab putting up twenty four points. I could see that,
So that is what I will That is what I
will do. Here, give me the Blazers at home to
cover the big number three thirty pm Central Time on
the CW and wake Forest is hosting North Carolina. We've
got a rivalry game going on with this one. Wake

(45:15):
is currently a six to six and a half point
home favorite total of thirty eight and a half on
this one, and that one has come down. Thirty nine
and a half was the total at first, and people
are betting the under quite a bit last four weeks.
I would have wake Forest favored by three and a
half power rating, I would have wake Forest by six
point six. Projected stat spread has wake Forest by seven

(45:37):
point sixty six. The North Carolina offense is still not good.
We'll start off on that side of the ball. They
are number one seventeen in points allowed or points per
scoring opportunity. Wake Forest is number twenty two in points
allowed per scoring opportunity. But as good as this wake
Forest defense is on the other side, North Carolina defense

(46:00):
is pretty good. Wake Forest pretty balanced as far as
run pass, but they do run it over fifty percent
of the time. They pass it less than that, obviously,
but they're not good at any of it. They're number
one twenty one in PPA per drive, North Carolina number
forty three and PPA allowed per drive. And when it

(46:21):
comes to points for scoring opportunity, wake Forest number one
thirty two in points per scoring opportunity, North Carolina number
fourteen in points allowed for scoring opportunity. So wake Forest
can't finish drives, North Carolina good at defending it. On
the other side, North Carolina can't finish drives. Wake Forest
good at defending it. I'm not expecting a ton of

(46:41):
points here. North Carolina better and special teams number fifty
two in special teams efficiency. North Carolina is the more
talented team. Wake Forest plays better together. Wake Forest is
three and two against the spread at home. North Carolina
three and one against the spread plus one point eight
on the road, So North Carolina plays better on the road.

(47:05):
Wake is eh three and two not great. They're six
and three against the number overall. I think this one
could surprise people. Wake Forest. They've already reached Bowl eligibility.
Big wins a letdown spot. Maybe after a big win
over Virginia, North Carolina needs two more wins to get

(47:29):
to a bowl game, and Bill Belichick's first season. I
don't know that they win the game, but I do
think that Wake Forest is not great, and I wonder
if they would have been able to win that game
against Virginia last week if the quarterback did not get hurt.
I still think Jay dickerd is a great coach. You
take advantage of opportunities when you get them. But I
think North Carolina is talented enough and playing well enough

(47:53):
that they can hang around here. So I think six
and a half a little too much. Take the dog,
even on the road. Give me the tar Heels plus
six and a half game thirteen and we head to
the Big Ten this one six pm Central time on
FS one. Purdue heads two Washington, and Washington a sixteen
and a half to seventeen point favorite depending on the book.

(48:15):
Fifty three and a half is your total here, and
good gracious Perdue has I talked all year about their
baseline competency, and that's what we got here. This is
a competent football team. They're number twelve in current strength
to schedules, so they have played a really difficult schedule

(48:36):
thus far. They got to go all the way out
to the West Coast for this one. They are two
and eight straight up. They are four and five against
the spread overall, but one two and one away from home.
The only cover on the road was against Michigan. Now
you're going to a pretty pissed off Washington team lost
last week two Wisconsin. It kind of depends on how

(48:57):
they end up responding to that loss because you played
in the snow. Washington is not great against the spread
on the road, four and five against the spread overall.
They are three and two against the spread at home,
but they are plus eight point six, so they do
play a little bit better at home than on the road,

(49:20):
and vice versa. Four Purdue. I will say that massive
talent gap between these two Washington number twenty seven, Purdue
number sixty seven. Washington only number one thirteen, especially in
defficiency Purdue number thirteen, Purdue number one twenty seven, and
turnover margin Washington number forty nine, and you start diving

(49:41):
into you know, five factors, drink. There's not a huge
difference between them Washington number thirty one and Purdue number
sixty five. But this offense for Washington should be able
to do basically whatever they want to against this Purdue defense.
On the other side, Purdue is Okay, they are number

(50:05):
eighty eight in PPA per drive on offense, but Washington
is number fifty two. So as far as finishing drives
perdue number sixty eight points per scoring opportunity, Washington's defense
is excuse me, Purdue is number sixty eight in points
allowed per scoring opportunity on defense. Washington is number twenty
six on offense. On the other side, Washington number fifty

(50:28):
two in points allowed per scoring opportunity on defense. Purdue
is number one oh three on offense. So even though
Purdue can move the football, there's still number one fifteen
in points per game. At twenty point nine, Washington is
number twenty eight in points allowed per game. I think
they're gonna be able to put up points here. I
think that they can stop Purdue. Yeah, my number on

(50:50):
this has Washington by sixteen and a half, so I'm
right on the number. Power Raiding has Washington by twelve.
Last four weeks has Washington by almost sixteen and a half,
So I'm I'm right there on that number. I trust
Washington at home in this one. I'll take the Huskies.
Best number I can get is minus sixteen and a half.

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Speaker 12 (51:40):
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Speaker 4 (51:43):
He is?

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Yeah, he's third reburns everywhere, so he's facing years of surgery.

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No, he hasn't woken up yet. Oh no, yeah, whatever
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I've been thinking we need to talk to him about it.

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You might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
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Okay, I'll give it a go.

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If he ever takes those ear forms out.

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Speaker 1 (52:40):
Five more games to go. Let me go ahead and
tell you right quick if you haven't already check out
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fifty bucks for the year. Buy me a Coffee dot
Com Slash Winning Cures or the easy link is BETTINGCFB
dot Com. Game number fourteen, six pm Central Time on
CBS Sports Network, Utah State heads two UNLV a Mountain
West action of course and UNLV favored by six to

(53:24):
six and a half total of seventy one to seventy
one and a half depending on which book PBA margin
on the year, un V is fifty five, Utah State
is sixty three. These two teams pretty good. UNLV is
seven and two on the year straight up, Utah State
five and four against the spread or sorry, five and
four straight up seven and two against the spread, So

(53:45):
Broncos bunch really covering pretty nicely. Utah State two and
two against the spread on the road, UNLV one and
three against the spread at home. Pretty crazy numbers, no
real advantage either way. UNLV number ten and turnover margin
Utah State number thirty. Both teams are number one fourteen

(54:07):
in penalties per game Utah State number eighty and special
teams efficiency UNV is number forty three. The UNOV offense
should be able to run the football almost at will. Here,
Dan Mullen offense is going to be able to run
the football, but especially when you're looking at Utah State,

(54:29):
who is number one twenty in rushing success allowed. They
are number ninety nine in PPA allowed per drive on defense,
and they are number one twenty in points allowed per
scoring opportunity. UNOV is number twenty one. So this UNOV
offense is going to put up points a hints. I
mean it makes sense, right, you got a total in
the seventies. Just ridiculous. On the other side, the UNV

(54:52):
defense really bad. Number one seventeen in PPA allowed per drive,
Utah State is number forty six. Now there is a
big difference in strength to schedule. Un V number one
twenty three, Utah State number fifty seven. This thing again
is at yeah, UNOLV minus six to minus six and
a half. I think that whatever Utah State wants to do,

(55:20):
they'll be able to do it. On offense, they're not
great at running football number ninety one and rusting success rate,
but they are number thirty three in rushing explosiveness. Un
V is number one thirty two in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Utah State is number three in points per scoring opportunity.
Unov's defense is number one hundred. You know again, on
the other side, unov's offense number twenty one in points

(55:42):
scoring opportunity, Utah State number one twenty on defense, neither
team is going to get a lot of stops. And
when you got a game like that, a spread of
almost a touchdown is a little bit crazy, not to
mention the fact that UNOV does not cover it all.
My power rating has UNLV by four point six. My

(56:04):
projected stat spread has UNLV by five point two four.
My last four weeks has UNLV minus two point five.
All of the numbers agree. This thing went from four
and a half up to six and a half. Unless
I'm missing an injury of some type. And I looked beforehand.
I didn't see anything official, But I think Utah State's

(56:25):
going to be able to score and keep this thing close.
They could win the game out right. So if we're
looking at the coin flip kind of game, and yet
I've got a spread of six and a half on this,
I'll go with the dog. Gimme Bronco Bronco Menenhall and
the Utah State Aggies plus six and a half. NBC
six thirty pm Central Time, The Ohio State Buckeyes are

(56:47):
going to host the UCLA Bruins. And you want to
talk about a mismatch, yikes, good gracious, Ohio State favorite
by thirty one and a half to thirty three and
a half depending on the book. Nobody can seem to
come to a grip. But that's in no man's land.
It's not a there's no key numbers there. Forty eight
and a half to forty nine is the total. My
projected stat spread has Ohio State by thirty three point four.

(57:11):
My last four weeks has Ohio State by thirty three
and a half and my power rating has Ohio State
by twenty five point six, So we're looking at a
potential score of about forty two and a half to nine.
Interesting to say the least. How much does Ohio State

(57:33):
want to run this thing up? You know, the the
UCLA magic that we saw, you know, in the middle
of the year. That thing is gone. Defensive success rate
for UCLA is number one thirty five. There are number
one twenty six in PPA allowed per drive on defense,
number one oh eight in point or sorry yeah, predicted

(57:54):
points added margin PPA margin. Ohio State is number one
Ohio State number sixteen in defensive success rate, number four
n PPA allowed for drive on defense? Does Ohio State care?
Are you just kind of feeling it out right? Ohio
State seven and one against the spread so far this year,

(58:19):
four zero and one against the spread at home they
were plus eight point seven. UCLA two and two against
the spread on the road plus point nine. I mean
your first half point margin number five for Ohio State,
number one thirteen for UCLA, number nine and five factors

(58:42):
rank for Ohio State, number one twenty two for UCLA.
UCLA can't score on offense number one oh five and
points per scoring opportunity. Ohio State's defense is number three,
turnover margin UCLA number eighty eight. IHI have state number two.
Five penalties per game UCLA number one thirty four. I

(59:03):
have State number ten. And yet there is a part
of me that just thinks, man, Ohio State does not
give a rip about this game, Like, maybe you could
point to the fact that UCLA has Nico right Nico
Yamiljeva hope was that they're right, and he did play

(59:24):
in Columbus last year. But also you're playing in Columbus
in November. We saw what the California quarterback did and
by Cali quarterback, I'm talking about Nico in the playoff
last year and they just got demolished. Now, this is
a little bit of a different Ohio State team, but
they are number three in points per game margin. UCLA

(59:47):
is number one twenty two in points per game margin.
I mean, the number is outrageous, but the best number
I can get right now is thirty one and a half.
Like I'll take the favorites, I'll take the Buckeyes. There's
nothing UCLA has done that makes me believe that Ohio

(01:00:07):
State won't be able to score at will. They their
pace of play has actually come up a little bit
one to fourteen and they're trusting Julian saying to throw
the football a little bit more and now they're almost
a forty seven percent passes. I don't think there's anybody
on UCLA that can slow down Ohio State's offense at all.

(01:00:29):
And it's not even that Ohio State that has to
run the football. They are going to smoke these guys.
It just depends on how many points they really want
to score. And even the backups I think are still
going to be able to score on UCLA. So yeah,
this is it's a big number. I don't think it matters.
Ohio State minus thirty one and a half is the

(01:00:51):
way we're going On the show six thirty pm Central Time,
God's time Zone on the ACC Network. Florida State hosts
Virginia Tech, and yes, Mikeville is still the head coach. No,
Brent Pry is not the head coach of Virginia Tech.
They have played significantly better since they moved to Philip
Montgomery as the interim coach. Now do I believe that
that's who's going to be the overall head coach. The

(01:01:15):
permanent head coach no a lot of smoke around James
Franklin with this job. Florida State favored by thirteen and
a half to fourteen here totally fifty four and a
half to fifty five on it. Virginia Tech two and
six or two six and one against the spread overall,

(01:01:39):
they are one and one against the spread on the road.
Only two road games thus far. One of the games
was a neutral site game, but very interesting to say
the least Florida State four and two against the spread.
At home they were plus twelve point six. So with
the game being in Tallahassee, I kind of gotta go

(01:02:02):
with Florida State. It feels like at least I trust
them more, which is insane to think about. First half
point margin. Florida State number twenty nine in the country,
Virginia tik number one oh one five factors rank Florida
State even at four and five, they are number twenty
eight and five factors Virginia Tech's number one oh eight.

(01:02:24):
Let's look at when Florida State has the ball, they
are still number fifteen in PBA per drive. On offense,
they go pretty fast. The number twelve and pace the play.
Virginia Tech is number sixty one, and this Virginia Tech
defense is number one twenty five and PBA allowed per drive.

(01:02:44):
They are bad at everything. They can't stop the run,
they can't stop the pass. Thomas Castellanos is, he should
have a really good day here. Should This is not
a team that's a ball howking team. They're number one
twelve and interceptions gained per pass attempt defended. They are

(01:03:04):
number one twenty five and fumbles gained per rushing attempt defended.
So Florida State's turnover trouble shouldn't be an issue here
shouldn't be obviously. Who knows that number is thirteen and
a half to fourteen depending on the book. It opened
at Florida State minus ten and a half. My last
four weeks has Florida State minus almost fifteen. My power

(01:03:25):
rating has Florida State minus thirteen point three. My projected
stat spread has Florida State minus at eighteen. Virginia Tech
had a nice bounce back and then they have not
played well. That's putting it mouthly. The Virginia Tech defense
number one twenty eight in points allowed per scoring opportunity
Florida State's offense is number thirty three. Virginia Tech's offense

(01:03:49):
is number forty seven in points per scoring opportunity. Florida
State's defense is number ninety eight, so you would look
at that as an advantage. The issue is Virginia Tech
is numb one to nineteen in scoring opportunities per game,
so only five point one to one drives where they
get a first down inside of the opponent forty. Florida State
is number thirty two in scoring opportunities allowed per game,

(01:04:12):
so the Florida State defense should be better than this offense.
Virginia Tech's gonna try and run the football, and I
still think this Florida State defense is gonna be able
to slow them down. I don't think that's the case.
On the other side, I expect to win here for
Florida State. I think they bounce back pretty good that
I think they want to go to a bowl game.

(01:04:33):
You gonna have to win two of the remaining three
in order to do that, so you probably need this
one quite a bit. Thirteen and a half is still
out there. I don't think it's enough. Give me the
Seminoles minus thirteen and a half to the SEC six
to forty five pm Central Time owned the SEC Network,
and Mississippi State is heading to Missouri. Missouri favored by

(01:04:58):
seven to seven and a half depending on the book
total fifty one and a half on this one. And Missouri,
of course, the freshman quarterback experiment did not go well
against Texas A and M. Both of these teams were
blown out by Texas A and M. Missouri, however, is
now on a two game losing streak. That's certainly not good,

(01:05:21):
and they didn't look good against Auburn in the game
before that. But Mississippi State, they need one more win
to get to Bowl eligibility, but they are banged up.
This team is beat up. They got destroyed at home
by Georgia last week, had a brain fart there. State

(01:05:47):
three and one against the spread on the road, Missouri
three to three and one against the spread at home.
So State seems to play better on the road. And
let's start when State is on offense. Date is number
fourteen in points per scoring opportunity, Missouri's defense number ninety two. Okay,

(01:06:08):
Missouri's offense number twenty seven points per scoring opportunity. The
issue is that these numbers for Missouri were from way
earlier in the season. My power rating has Missouri by
seven last four weeks has Missouri by fourteen points seven
to six. However, I don't know if they can score.
They're gonna run the football a lot, and State can't

(01:06:29):
defend the run. But on the other side, State I
think is gonna throw. They'll be able to run it
some on Missouri's defense. Can they throw it on Missouri's defense,
you know, passing explosiveness Mississippi State number forty one, Missouri's
defense number fifty three. If Missouri can get after the quarterback,

(01:06:53):
I don't know that State scores a lot either, But
I'm just not expecting a ton of points here. This
thing was at fifty one and a half. It's still
sitting in fifty one and a half. I've got a
total of fifty, well a little over fifty. Even as
banged up as they are, it feels like Mississippi State

(01:07:16):
is gonna They're gonna try their best here. I know
that sounds so cliche, ridiculous. I think this could be
a close game because I do not trust Missouri's offense
to be able to put up points. Like again, they
should still be able to run the football. They're number
fifteen in PP April Rush. Missisippi State's defense is number

(01:07:39):
eighty eight, Missouri number eleven, and rushing success rate Mississippi
State number one twenty five. Georgia just pounded the rock
on them, but this Missouri team is not Georgia, so
I'll go with the road dog again. I might feel
like an idiot, but this thing got over a touchdown.

(01:08:04):
I'll buy it back the other way. Give me Mississippi
State plus seven and a half. Last game for the show,
This one nine to thirty pm Central Time at God's
time Zone on CBS Sports Network. San Diego State is
hosting Boise State. Here. San Diego State a two and
a half point favorite three in some places with a
total of forty one and a half. I'll go ahead.

(01:08:26):
I'll go on and tell you my last four week's
number has Boise by almost twenty points. My projected stat
spread has Boise by one. My power rating has San
Diego State by half a point. However, Boise is without
their starting quarterback Maddox Madison. He will be out for
this game. What does that mean for the Boise State offense?

(01:08:49):
San Diego State got boat raced at Hawaii last week.
It was the first real passing offense that they have faced.
If you are limited and you cannot throw the football,
you are running into a whole world of hurt with
the San Diego Tech or San Diego State as Tech team.

(01:09:12):
So Sean Lewis's bunch fantastic against the pass, yes, but
fantastic against the run more so. And Boise has not
been great running the football. Number one oh four in
rushing success rate, San Diego State's defense, number five offensive
lineyards san Diego State number thirty eight in offensive line
yards allowed, Boise number eighty two. This Boise line of scrimmage,

(01:09:37):
really on both sides of the ball, has not been
great this year. Boise six and three straight up. San
Diego State is seven and two. San Diego State four
and zero against the spread at home plus twenty three
and a half. Boise is two to one and one
against the spread. On the road, they are minus seven

(01:09:58):
point six. Boise the number one O four and give
boys per game. That is a nightmare against this team.
And you have to believe that San Diego State is
chomping at the bit to get back on the field
after last week. I don't think that San Diego State
is going to try and throw the football very much.

(01:10:19):
They're not good at it. Throw picks all that. I
think they can run the football on Boise and I
don't expect a ton of points here, but we don't
need a ton of points to be able to cover
San Diego State's defense. I think can win this game
for him. They're number two in points a loud per
scoring opportunity, boys's offense number sixty six. On the other side,

(01:10:42):
you know, San Diego State number ninety nine and points
per scoring opportunity. But they are going against Boise, who
is number one oh two in points allowed per scoring opportunity. Yeah,
San Diego State, I think is just the better football team,
you know, and even talent wise, they're pretty close. So

(01:11:02):
while everybody typically loves Boise, I will take San Diego
State minus the two and a half. I think they
bounced back after a pitiful showing on the island last week.
Astex minus two and a half is the go for
this show. All right, Week twelve recap time. Let's go
ahead and give you all the picks thus far from
today's show. Don't forget about the other two shows. The

(01:11:24):
weeknight games and the Big ten or sorry, the ten
biggest games. Today. We got Indiana minus thirty and a half,
South Carolina plus nineteen and a half, Arizona plus six
and a half, LSU minus five and a half, West
Virginia plus eleven and a half, UCF plus twenty four,
Miami minus fourteen and a half, Penn State minus seven,
Maryland plus fifteen and a half, app State plus twenty

(01:11:46):
one and a half, UAB plus eighteen and a half,
North Carolina plus six and a half, Washington minus sixteen
and a half, Utah State plus six and a half,
Ohio State minus thirty one and a half, Florida State
minus thirteen and a half, Mississippi State plus seventeen and
a half, and San Diego State minus two and a half.
If you haven't already liked the video, jump in the

(01:12:09):
comments there. Make sure you are subscribed to the channel.
Over fifty percent of the people that watch us are
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(01:12:30):
com slash Winning Cures. You get all of these stat graphics,
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buy me a coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. Think
that's gonna do it for this week. I'm tired, it's late,

(01:12:54):
I've had all kinds of things going on personally. That's
just hey, like football season is important, family is more important.
Here's what it is, all right. You guys are fantastic.
I appreciate all of you for sporting, all of you
for watching. If you got to this point in the video,

(01:13:15):
you the real MVP, as Kevin Durant would say. But
for now, take care of yourself, take care of each other.
God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets
cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe,
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and check out the web store.

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