Week 13 2025 College Football Picks for the 8 Midweek Games!

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's Week thirteen of the twenty twenty five college football season.
It's almost over. We still got some weaknight games that
we gotta make picks on.

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Speaker 6 (01:12):
In Winning Cures Everything. It's college football podcast.

Speaker 1 (01:15):
I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
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not really all that active on really any of them.

Speaker 6 (01:25):
To be completely honest.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
I got too many things going on, too many fires
in the kitchen. If you will, all right, we got
things to discuss. Let me first go on and tell
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Speaker 6 (01:41):
Let's get to games. Game number one.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
We start on Tuesday night, six pm Central Time, God's
Time Zone on ESPN U Akron going to Bowling Green.
Bowling Green currently at three and a half to four
point favorite, depending on the book total of forty seven
and a half on this one. It opened Bowling Green
favored by four and a half, but there has already
been action coming in on Akron last four weeks. I've

(02:04):
got Akron favored by almost twelve points power rating. I've
got Bowling Green by less than two. Projected stat spread
has Bowling Green by less than two. The quarterback has
been off and on all year Drew Pine as their starter,
but it's your guess as good as mine as to
whether or not he's going to play in this game.
So looking back through Bowling Green two and three against

(02:27):
the spread at home so far this season, Akron is
two and three against the spread on the road. Although
Akron's margin of victory significantly lower are their margin of
difference minus eight point nine Bowling Green minus four point four,
So both teams playing below expectation on the road versus
at home. That is what it is as far as

(02:48):
overall talent number one twenty eight for Akron, number one
thirty one for Bowling Green. Bowling Green better special teams.
Not very good turnover margin, but they are better at
not giving the fotball away, but they're not nearly as
good at takeaways as Akron is. Penalties per game Bowling
Green worst number one oh four. Akron is actually inside

(03:09):
the top fifty as far as penalties per game, So
that's pretty good. You look at these two teams, and
you know, Bowling Green current strength schedule number ninety seven
that I think has more to do with who they
play in the non con than anything else. Just not
a neither team is great overall, I will say that

(03:29):
this thing is still sitting at three and a half.

Speaker 6 (03:33):
And four. At a couple of different spots.

Speaker 1 (03:35):
Akron has been playing better as of late now. Some
of those have been at home, and one of those
the U Mass game. I don't know exactly how much
we can take off of that one, because Northern Illinois
has looked like complete garbage and they turned around and
beat you Mass about what forty two last week? It
was like forty five to three or forty two to three,

(03:56):
whatever it was. U Mass almost shouldn't count towards your staff,
just ridiculous. Acron number sixty seven and defensive success rate
offensive success rate number ninety seven. Both of these teams
a little bit better on defense than they are on offense.
Akron a little bit better on offense than Bowling Green
has shown to be. Who can finish drives here, Bowling

(04:17):
Green on offense number one nineteen in points per scoring opportunity,
Acron number ninety six. On defense on the other side,
Acro number one oh three in points per scoring opportunity
Bowling Green's defense number sixty one.

Speaker 6 (04:30):
So found that a little bit interesting.

Speaker 1 (04:33):
That maybe, eh, maybe Akron not great at this but
I will tell you Bowling Green red zone conversion percentage.
They are number one thirty three in defensive red zone
touchdown rates, so they give up. They give up touchdowns
a lot of the time, over seventy five percent of
the time when you've got a red zone spot there.

(04:55):
So maybe Akron will have a little bit of success
when they get down there. Bowling Green's offense number one
seventeen in offense red zone touchdown rate, Akron's defense number
forty six, So Akron can keep people out of the
end zone whenever they get down there, but still number
one oh three in points per scoring opportunity there at
least giving up a field goal when you're down there.
I think this is going to be a really really

(05:16):
tight game. You know, forty seven and a half is
our total and it's still sitting there. I'm gonna take
Akron plus the four. I think they've been playing a
little bit better. I don't trust Bowling Green necessarily, so
will we'll go with the road dog here? Give me
Akron plus four. Game number two, six pm Central time,

(05:37):
God's time Zone on CBS Sports Network. U Mass is
headed to Ohio, and it's really difficult to figure this
one out. All of the numbers say that you Mass
should be the play.

Speaker 6 (05:51):
This team is so banged up, and they have been so.

Speaker 1 (05:54):
Bad recently forty whatever to three lost in Northern Illinois,
forty whatever to three loss to Akron. They just have
not even been competitive against mac teams. It's been atrocious
right now. Ohio favored by thirty two and a half
in this one total of fifty one and a half.

(06:16):
My power rating has Ohio by twenty. My projected stat
spread has Ohio by a little over twenty. The last
four weeks actually has Ohio by thirteen point four. The
play should be UMass or should Yeah, it should be UMass,
But my goodness, the UMass defense is awful. The u

(06:38):
Mass offense is awful. They are number one thirty six
in PPA per drive on offense, number one twenty seven
in PPA allowed per drive on defense.

Speaker 6 (06:48):
And when you're talking just pure PPA.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
Margin, that's predicted points added margin number one thirty five,
Ohio is number fifty four, and Ohio at home adds
a little bit to it. Ohio four and one against
the spread at home plus four point five. You Mass
one and four against the spread on the road at
minus twelve point twelve, so they play even worse than
expectations on the road. This since twenty twenty four, Ohio

(07:13):
is nine and two against the spread, But I don't
believe they've ever been favored by this much at home.
Thirty two and a half is crazy. But if you're
looking at even forty four to seven, forty five to seven,
forty two to seven, if we're not expecting you Mass

(07:33):
to put up anything more than a touchdown or a
field goal, Ohio can certainly put up that many points here.
Ohio is number ninety seven in points per scoring opportunity,
but you Mass is number one thirty on defense. On
the other side, you Mass number one thirty six, and
points per scoring opportunity, Ohio's defense is number eight. So

(07:55):
we're not expecting u Mass to be able to score,
and we think that Ohio can kind of name their score.
Ohio currently six and four straight up.

Speaker 6 (08:06):
They are.

Speaker 1 (08:07):
I don't believe they are necessarily in the mix for
the MAC Championship, but I could be wrong. There actually
no they are in the mix for the MAC Championship.

Speaker 6 (08:16):
So at this point.

Speaker 1 (08:19):
It might make more sense to take a first half
number with Ohio because if they are playing for a
conference championship or the chance to get there, then you
don't want to get your guys hurt, so you probably
don't play them most of the second half if you're
already up big. My first half projection on this has

(08:42):
Ohio minus nine point six. That has a lot to
do with PPA per play, et cetera. Tosses in some
success rate which Ohio number eighty one and overall defensive
success rate allowed. I don't think that number is high enough.
I think I think Ohio should easily be favored by

(09:02):
almost twenty in the first half. Uh yeah, I mean
this is this is wild, absolutely wild. Uh there's no
other way I can go other than Ohio. And that
number has gotten big, but it's still under five touchdowns.
Give me the Bobcats minus thirty two and a half.
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Speaker 1 (10:49):
If you haven't already subscribed to the channel, go ahead
and like the video and jump in the comments and
tell me what your picks are on these games. I'm
curious which direction you're going. Game number three is staying
on Tuesday again six pm Central time, this one on
ESPN two. Western Michigan going two Northern Illinois. Western Michigan
currently favored by six here with a total of thirty

(11:11):
eight and a half on this The total has not moved, however,
Western Michigan favored by six and a half. Initially, it's
down down to six basically everywhere. My power rating has
Western Michigan by four point nine. My projected stat spread
has Western Michigan by four point four to seven. My
last four weeks has Western Michigan minus five point two

(11:32):
to two. If you look at against the spread numbers
home for Northern Illinois, they are one and three against
the spread at home minus two point eight. Western Michigan
two and two against the spread minus one point eight.
And the best unit on the field in this game
is going to be the Western Michigan defense, number twenty
two in PBA allowed per drive. Northern Illinois their numbers

(11:56):
look a whole lot better right now than they would
have because they demolished and I'm talking demolished UMass last week.
Their defensive numbers look a whole lot better because of that.
So let's take a look at what we got. When
NIU is on offense, number one thirty in points per
scoring opportunity, Western Michigan's defense number forty six. They don't

(12:20):
allow a lot of touchdowns once you get into scoring position,
which is anytime you get a first down inside the
opponent forty yard line. On the other side, when Western
Michigan has the football, they are number one oh seven
in points per scoring opportunity and I use defense as
number twenty one, so they don't allow a lot of
touchdowns either.

Speaker 6 (12:37):
Down there, Northern Illinois number.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
Fifty six and defensive red zone touchdown rate Western Michigan
number thirty four. However, Western Michigan number forty seven in
offensive red zone touchdown rate. Their issue is they are
number ninety five in offensive red zone appearances per game.
If you're number one twenty in offensive red zone conversion
percentage but number forty seven in red zone touchdown rate,

(13:01):
this is your culprit right here.

Speaker 6 (13:04):
Number one twenty.

Speaker 1 (13:04):
Two in special teams efficiency, but NIU is number one
twenty three, so we're not talking about a massive difference.
NIU number one twenty four and five factors rank. Western
Michigan is number eighty two. This NIU team is bad.

Speaker 6 (13:18):
They are just bad.

Speaker 1 (13:19):
And I know that they beat up on UMass that
was their third win of the season, but this is
I don't believe that these two teams are comparable. NIU
number one twenty three and available yards margin Western Michigan
is number forty five. So that'll tell you at least
a little bit. When you look at turnover margin Western
Michigan number fifty one and turnover margin number fifty six,

(13:41):
and giveaways per game number one forty or sorry, number
forty nine and takeaways per game. NIU cannot generate turnovers.
They're typically pretty good about not giving the ball away, though,
so if we have a relatively clean game, both of
these teams top twenty and penalties per game. I think
Western Michigan is the better football team overall.

Speaker 6 (14:00):
So yeah, six points might feel like a lot.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
With this, but I don't think an IU is very
good and I think Western Michigan's defense is a huge,
huge difference here. Give me the Broncos the road favorite.
I will take Western Michigan minus six. Game number four
we moved to Wednesday night. This one, six pm Central
time on ESBN two.

Speaker 6 (14:23):
Miami of Ohio goes.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
To Buffalo Buffalo currently a two and a half point
favorite total of thirty nine and a half on this
that total has come down from forty one and a
half down to thirty nine and a half. Your guess
is as good as mine on whether or not or
on what Miami is going to get out of the
quarterback position. Right power rating has Miami by one. Last

(14:45):
four weeks has Miami by three and a half, and
then the projected stat spread has Buffalo minus point zero eight.
The reason why Buffalo is favored here one day are
at home, but two apparently Dakwan Finn, the starting quarterback
for Miami, is shutting it down for the season. He
didn't play last week against Toledo and Miami just got

(15:07):
boat raced. Nobody knew that was happening, and then you
saw a bunch of tweets in the middle of the
week about how the quarterback is gone. Who knows what
happened there? I haven't been able to dig in enough.
This Miami defense is still pretty good. The offense did
not look good with the new quarterback, but that was

(15:28):
against Toledo, who is easily the best defense in the
MAC and probably maybe a top twenty defense overall in
the country. I mean they are They're really good. Not
as talented, but you know, is what it is. Miami
as far as overall talent ranked number ninety, Buffalo number
one twenty five. At special team's efficiency, both teams are
inside the top sixteen.

Speaker 6 (15:51):
But if you can't move to the football.

Speaker 1 (15:52):
That's going to be a problem. Miami of Ohio when
they're on offense number ninety three in points per scoring opportunity,
Buffalo's defense is number twelve. In giving up touchdowns. Buffalo
on offense number one oh five and points per scoring opportunity,
Miami's defense is number fifty eight.

Speaker 6 (16:11):
The biggest issue for Buffalo.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
There are number one twenty three in giveaways per game,
and a lot of that can be attributed to there
we go offense number well. Obviously, the offense number one
ten in interceptions thrown per pass attempt. Miami's defense is
number twenty five in interceptions gained per pass attempt defended,

(16:35):
So I would imagine we're going to see some turnovers here.
On the other side, Miami number one, twenty five and
interceptions thrown per pass attempt Buffalo number ninety four. They
don't generate turnovers the same way that Miami does, so
Miami number thirty and takeaways per game Buffalo number sixty nine.
There both teams inside the top fifty five as far

(16:57):
as penalties per game Miami thirty four. Then turnover margin
Buffalo one to fifteenth. All of the different numbers would
lead you to believe that Buffalo, you know, should be
the better team here.

Speaker 6 (17:12):
Overall.

Speaker 1 (17:14):
But man, uh, two and a half feels like a lot.
But when we don't know what we're getting out of
the Miami quarterback position, like if he plays the same
as he did last week. I mean, this Buffalo team
is number twenty five and defensive success right allowed, and
they're really good against the run. And if Miami is
going to plan on running the football a lot, which
they typically do over our almost fifty four percent of

(17:35):
the time, I would expect Buffalo to be able to
kind of handle business there, especially standard downs, standardowns success
rate Buffalo number twenty two on defense, you got I
gotta go with Buffalo here. I don't know what I'm
going to get from that quarterback position. And while I
do trust Miami's defense, the home road splits. As far

(17:58):
as against the spread, there's not a whole lot of
difference here. Three and two for Miami on the road,
two and three for Buffalo at home. I don't think
there's a massive difference there, so I will take Buffalo
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Speaker 1 (20:01):
If you like the game comparison spreadsheets, become a member
over at buy Me a Coffee dot com Slash Winning Cures.
There's a link in the description for it, but I
do this for every single FBS versus FBS game every
single week. Along with we have a matchup comparison tool
where you can do any hypothetical matchup, so if you're
wanting to look at what any kind of playoff matchup
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(20:22):
along with a bunch of random stats.

Speaker 6 (20:24):
I'll give you my official.

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Plays every week, what I'm actually betting on, etc. So
you can go ahead and check that out BETTINGCFB dot
com or buy me a coffee dot com slash winning
Cures Game number five also on Wednesday night, six pm
Central Time on ESPNU, Central Michigan heading to Kent State.
That's right, same Kent State that we bet against last week,

(20:49):
et cetera. Central Michigan right now is favored by seven
and a half to eight depending on the book. Forty
six and a half to forty seven and a half
is our total here, so the total coming down slightly
from the four twenty seven and a half It opened
at seven and a half in favor of Central Michigan.
Now some of those books are up to eight. What
are we looking at here? Last four weeks, Central Michigan
favored by eight point three six. Power rating has Central

(21:11):
Michigan by five. Projected stat spread has Central Michigan minus
five point sixty seven, and the numbers this is where
they get a little fluky, right, a little weird. Kent
State is number one thirty one in PPA margin, they're
number one thirty four in offensive success rate, number one
oh four in defensive success rate, but their current strength
of schedule is number forty eight, so it's going to

(21:32):
be tough to build those numbers back up, although they
have been playing a lot better in MacPlay. There are
six and four against the spread a Central Michigan is
seven and three against the spread. Looking at the home
split home road splits, Kent State three and one against
the spread at home plus sixteen point one, Central Michigan
three and three against the spread away from home minus

(21:54):
one point five, So a little bit of an advantage
for Kent State at home. Central Michigan is noumber forty
and PPA margin better on defense than they are on
offense number fifty six, defensive success rate on defense number
thirty one, and PPA allowed per drive on offense not
so great, number seventy two in ppaver drive Kent State's numbers, though,

(22:17):
were just not good across the board. Number one twenty
five in offensive ppable drive this predicted points added for
those that don't know. Number one twelve on defense. And
when you start looking at special team's efficiency, you know,
both of these teams outside the top eighty. But man
Kent State is number one twenty five and Central Michigan
is number eighty nine. There this Central Michigan offense pretty

(22:37):
good at throwing the football. They only throw at thirty
one percent of the time. Now, remember their head coach
is Matt Drinkle, who was the offensive line coach at Army,
and they are running the ball almost sixty eight percent
of the time. They're just not great at it. Number
one oh six and rushing success rate. Found that to

(22:57):
be interesting that they would continue doing that. Now they
run it, they run it, they run it, they run it,
they run it, and then they hit you with play action,
which is why they are number ten in yards per attempt,
number six in QBR, number thirty five in passing explosiveness.
But you know, Kent State, I think can hang with this.
I think they can hang here. The Kent State offense

(23:20):
a little bit better throwing the full all than they
are running it, although they do run it more than
they throw it. Passing success rate the number one thirty five,
but they are number forty five in QBR, number thirty
four in yards per attempt. I think Casey has some
things figured out with this offense, and they've got some
I like their quarterback.

Speaker 6 (23:39):
I like the quarterback a lot.

Speaker 1 (23:41):
I do think the Kent State like this is a
team that can still make a bowl game, which is
mind blowing to think about. They've got a lot to
play for here. Central Michigan is also playing for MAC
title contention. If I'm not mistaken, this is this is

(24:02):
an interesting spot for a team to be on the
road favored by more than a touchdown. I think Kent
State hangs around here, so I'm gonna looking at points
for scoring opportunity, defensive red zone conversion, percentage, offensive red zone,
all that kind of stuff. I need to start pulling
just MAC numbers for these. But I think Kent State

(24:27):
can hang around here, So I'm gonna go Kent State.
Best number I can get his eight, but I will
take the Golden Flashes to stay within one score of
the Chipplewalls game number six on to Thursday, and we've
got Arkansas State hosting Louisiana this one at six thirty
pm Central Time, God's Time Zone on ESPN. Arkansas State

(24:50):
favored by three to three and a half depending on
the book, and we've got a total of fifty four
and a half across the board. That number has not moved.
Projected stat spread has Arkansas State by three and a half.
Ish power rating has Arkansas State by three point six.
Last four weeks has Arkansas State by three point five six.
I mean, it's basically right on the number, because this

(25:12):
thing continued to go up. It opened at two and
a half. Louisiana on the road two and three against
the spread negative points seven points, Arkansas State at home
five and zero against the spread plus eight point two points.
They play so much better at home than they do

(25:32):
on the road. And you know this is a team
that's five and five. Both of these teams still fighting
to make a bowl game. So I don't anticipate anybody
giving up or playing second stringers or anything like that.
This one's going to go down to the wire. And
Arkansas State being at home, I believe is a little
bit of an advantage there, a little bit of an advantage,

(25:54):
all right, looking at when Arkansas State has the football
number fifty five in scoring opportunities per game. That's when
you get a first down inside the opponent forty yard line.
But they are number one thirteen in points per scoring opportunity.
And you can tell offensive red zone conversion percentage, number
twenty one in red zone appearances per game, but they
are number one fourteen in offensive red zone touchdown rate,

(26:14):
so not great at finishing drives. However, Louisiana's defense number
one fifteen in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed.

Speaker 6 (26:21):
And you know they're what number.

Speaker 1 (26:25):
Sixty two in points per scoring opportunity. The issue is
that they give up a lot of scoring opportunities, number
one thirty one in the country at that. So you
know available yards margin their defense is number one ten.
Arkansas State's defense number fifty seven. I find that interesting
as far as available yards margin. Louisiana on offense runs

(26:48):
the football. Now, they run it almost fifty eight percent
of the time. They are number thirty five in yards
per rush. They are number seventy six and rushing success rate,
but they are number forty three in rushing explosiveness. This
is a team that can probably run the football on
Arkansas State. Although Arkansas State, I will tell you, is
number forty seven offensive line yards allowed, they are number

(27:09):
sixty five and stuff rate, but they're still number one
oh seven in yards allowed per rush, a number one
o one in PBA per rush, all that kind of stuff.

Speaker 6 (27:17):
Passing the ball.

Speaker 1 (27:18):
It's just kind of a wash here for both teams.
Jalen Rayner leads the country in pass attempts per game.
They are number twenty six in pass rate fifty five,
almost fifty five percent of the time they're throwing the
football as supposed to running it. So Arkansas State maybe
maybe a little bit of an advantage throwing the football.

(27:39):
They're not great at it by any stretch. And this
Louisiana team, like once Walker Howard went down, they have
not been throwing the football hardly at all, hardly at all.
Very interesting to see what's gonna happen here when Louisiana
gets into scoring position, which is not offen They're number
ninety four and scoring opportunities per game. They are number
ninety five and points for scoring opportunity. Arkansas State number

(28:02):
ninety eight in points first scoring opportunity. So this will
be interesting to see who can finish drives who can't.
As far as turnovers go, Arkansas State is number one
twenty three and giveaways per game, but Louisiana is number
ninety six, so there's not a major difference number one
fifteen to number eighty. As far as turnover margin is
not a huge different tier special team's efficiency Arkansas State

(28:25):
number fifty four, Louisiana number one twelve. Yeah, Arkansas State
just overall is a better football team number one oh
four and five factors shrink Louisiana number one twenty two.
Louisiana a better first half team, Arkansas State a significantly
better second half team.

Speaker 6 (28:43):
If you're looking at point.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
Margin, I know that we've still got some threes out there.

Speaker 6 (28:52):
I wouldn't go over three.

Speaker 1 (28:53):
It says Arkansas State minus three point six, minus three
point six minus three point five six. Y'all take Arkansas
State minus the three. But I if this thing gets
to three and a half, four, eh, maybe maybe be
careful and maybe sit this one out. But I'll take
our as far as the show is concerned, because we
make picks on this show, I'll take Arkansas State minus three.

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A Christmas visit to Dondrum with Mom and stuff fuller
than Santa Sac on the twenty fourth at the ice rink,
she's clutching the edge. Well, my little one is lapping
us and Brown Thomas. She's spraying the perfumes around like
air fresheners. We do Harvey Nichols and always Reese m
and s. She gets her brows done at Edvard and
Pink talk about a new face. Then it's Katsu's and
Wagamama and a Hansel and Gretel Panto at the Meal Theater.

(29:51):
Later I drop her home and Mom says, thank you, pet.
Best day out in ages. Search Dondrum Town Center and
make a day of it this Christmas.

Speaker 13 (30:00):
I'm thinking we need to talk to him about it.

Speaker 4 (30:02):
You might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
a time as any.

Speaker 13 (30:05):
Okay, I'll give it a go.

Speaker 4 (30:07):
If he ever takes those ear forms out.

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Speaker 6 (31:01):
Make sure jump in the comments.

Speaker 1 (31:02):
Let me know what your picks are on these games,
because I don't want you coming back at me afterwards
when I miss one inevitably, but let me know your picks. Also,
subscribe to the channel like the video we moved to Friday,
seven pm Central Time on ESPN Florida State the seminoles
ahead to rally they're going to take on the NC
State wolf Pack. Right now, Florida State favored by four

(31:25):
and a half to five depending on the book total
of sixty one and a half on this one, And
this one hasn't moved much, but it has moved in
favor of Florida State, which makes sense because NC State
just got absolutely demolished by Miami last week and this
team is pretty beat up. They don't look great, and
Florida State's offensive efficiency numbers have still just remained awesome

(31:50):
all year, even through a really rough stretch that they had,
this team has still been pretty good, pretty good. So
I look at this and I think, man, that feels
like a lot of points on the road. And if
you look Florida State zero and three against the spread
on the road, they are minus seventeen point three. N
C State three and two against the spread at home

(32:11):
plus point six. But man, their defense is really really
bad number one fourteen and PPA allowed per pass number
eighty three and PPA allowed per rush. Teams do not
run on them a whole lot. They're number seventeen and
rushing success rate allowed Florida State is number eight.

Speaker 3 (32:30):
This is.

Speaker 1 (32:32):
This is going to be interesting to see what Florida
State is capable of doing here. Florida State only throws
the ball about forty one percent of the time, but
they are pretty efficient with it. NC State's defense is
just awful at defending the pass, number one nineteen in
yards allowed per pass attempt, number one eleven and QBR allowed.
They are number one twenty five or one point fifteen and.

Speaker 6 (32:51):
Have it created.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
If you can't get to Thomas Castellanos, if you can't
get to the running backs in the backfield, I don't
know what you're going to be able to do against
the Florida State offense. I mean, it's pretty crazy. Florida
State is still there's number seventy five and giveaways per game,
but NC State is two. The difference is that NC

(33:14):
State is number one oh seven and takeaways per game,
Florida State is number fifty three.

Speaker 6 (33:19):
Does that change with it being on the road.

Speaker 1 (33:21):
I mean, the fact that Florida State has not covered
a road game yet should tell you at.

Speaker 6 (33:25):
Least a little bit of stuff.

Speaker 1 (33:27):
Florida State hasn't covered a road game in the last
two seasons. They are six and one minus fourteen point
four in the last two years. Their minus seventeen point
three this season in NC State is at least like
points six points better on average against the spread at home,
but they are four to seven and one against the
spread at home in the last two years, so it's

(33:48):
not like there's a huge advantage. Florida State number forty
three in special team's efficiency. NC State is number one
fourteen there. Both of these teams are inside the top
thirty as far as overall talent rank. But man, this defense,
I mean, when Tony Gibson left, like nothing, nothing has worked.
DJ Elliott and Charlton Warren have not done great things

(34:09):
on that defensive side of the ball. Florida State number
twenty seven and five factors rank NC State's number fifty four.
Florida State much better in the first half and the
second half than NC State has been. And if you look,
they allowed thirty one point six points per game the
NC State defense. The offense only scores twenty nine point nine.

(34:31):
So they are five and five straight up. And yeah,
they got the big win over Georgia Tech, but man,
just a different kind of deal here. Yeah, and they're
still they're three and two against the spread, but they're
point plus point six better than expectation at home, and
that includes whipping Georgia Tech, who they were a significant

(34:56):
underdog against. Like I, I don't know what to tell you.
On offense, NC State number sixteen in points per scoring opportunity.
Florida State's defense is number ninety. The issue for NC
State is that they are number one oh one in
scoring opportunities per game, so only five point seven to
eight drives per game do they get a first down
inside the opponent forty. On the other side, Florida State

(35:16):
number thirty four in points per scoring opportunity. There are
number ten in scoring opportunities per game, so seven points
seven to eight drives per game that they get a
first down inside of the opponent forty. NC State's defense
number one hundred in points allowed per scoring opportunity, number
one thirty two in scoring opportunities UH per game.

Speaker 6 (35:37):
Like this is.

Speaker 1 (35:42):
Florida State being oh and three against the spread to
six away from home against the spread really gives me
a lot of pause. Last four weeks would have Florida
State by almost nine points. Power rating only has Florida
State by three, and the projected stat spread has Florida
State by five and a half. I think I think

(36:04):
Florida State has figured some things out in C State
I'm real curious about. I don't know, feel good about
picking out of one of these teams because I don't trust.

Speaker 6 (36:15):
Either of them.

Speaker 1 (36:16):
So if I'm gonna go a certain way, I will
take the home team on a weeknight, although again I
don't feel great about it.

Speaker 6 (36:27):
I will take in C State.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
As much as I just talked about all the negative
stuff they do pop back up every now and then.
You know they didn't look good at Miami. They are
coming back home short week. Florida State has Florida next week.
I mean NC State's got North Carolina next week. Should
make a huge difference. Ah, all of these numbers say

(36:51):
I should take Florida State. I mean, it's it's crazy,
all right, here's what we're gonna do.

Speaker 6 (36:58):
We're good.

Speaker 1 (36:58):
The best number I can get out there is a five.
I'm going to take NC State plus the five at
home with the thought process that NC State's offense can
hang around on this Florida State defense and the fact
that Florida State plays awful away from home.

Speaker 6 (37:13):
So give me n C State plus five.

Speaker 1 (37:17):
Last game of the week night slate, We're staying on
Friday night, this one at nine thirty pm Central Time
on FS one, God's time zone.

Speaker 6 (37:25):
Of course, Hawaii heading to Las.

Speaker 1 (37:27):
Vegas to take on UNLV, who got a massive, massive
win in their quest for the Mountain West Conference title,
or at least a birth in that UNLV right now
favor by two and a half to three depending on
the book total of sixty four and a half on
this Hawaii I believe, coming off of a bye UNLV
coming off of that overtime win against Utah State just

(37:52):
a bonkers, bonkers game, absolutely bonkers. UNLV number fifty five
and ppa margin Hawaii number sixty six. These two teams,
UNLV is eight and two, Hawaii is seven and three.
Hawaii two and two against the spread on the road
this year plus one point six, UNLV one and four
against the spread at home minus five point seven, so

(38:14):
they played below expectations at home. Hawaii has played a
little bit above expectation on the road plus one point
six there, but over the past two years three and
six against the spread on the road, UNLV four and
seven against the spread in the last two years at home,
so neither team a massive advantage as far as playing
in front of a crowd that would be at Allegiance

(38:37):
Stadium right. UNLV number nineteen in turnover margin, Hawaii is
number one oh one Hawaiian number one of seven and
giveaways per game.

Speaker 6 (38:46):
Very interesting.

Speaker 1 (38:47):
Most of them are fumbles and for whatever reason, UNLV
has been really good at getting fumbles.

Speaker 6 (38:53):
On defense.

Speaker 1 (38:54):
They are number twenty six and fumbles gained per rushing attempt.
Hawaii's offense number one in eleven and fumbles lost per
ushing attempt. Now, that's maybe part of the reason why
they run the ball the second least in the entire
country thirty six percent of the time. They are throwing
it the second most in the country sixty three point
two two percent of the time. Let's look at UNLV

(39:20):
when they are on offense, number twenty four in ppaber
drive number thirty four in offensive success rate. They are
number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity. Hawaii's defense
is number thirty nine, So Hawaii makes it where teams
are not able to finish drives against them. However, they

(39:41):
do give up a ton of scoring opportunities per game
five point six drives per game. Their defense allows a
first down inside their forty yard line. Un V is
number forty six and scoring opportunities per game. Now, on
the other side, Hawaii is number seventy in points per
scoring opportunit. UNLV's defense is number ninety seven. So Hawaii,

(40:04):
for as much as they're able to move the ball,
and they throw the ball around a lot on offense,
they can't really finish a bunch of drives right as
far as offensive red zone conversion percentage, Hawaii is number
ninety four in offensive red zone touchdown rate. UNLV's defense
is number ninety five, but they don't allow a lot
of red zone appearances, so it doesn't necessarily hurt them

(40:24):
all that much. On the other side, UNLV number seventeen
in offensive red zone appearances per game, but they are
number sixty eight in touchdown rate. Hawaii's defense is number
thirty in red zone touchdown rate, but they're number forty
six in red zone appearances per game. So we're going
to see exactly who can drive the ball on each
other available yards margin. You're looking at number forty three

(40:46):
for Hawaii, number fifty one for UNLV. The turnover margin
is maybe the biggest thing here. I told you Hawaii
number one oh seven and giveaways per game. UNLV is
number fourteen and take aways per game, So I would
imagine we're going to see some turnovers somewhere from Hawaii.
Curious about whether or not UNLV is going to turn

(41:08):
over their number forty eight and giveaways per game, Hawaii
number sixty nine and take aways per game.

Speaker 6 (41:12):
So something to pay attention to.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
With that, these two teams are pretty much even when
it comes to five factors rank. But when you're looking
at overall talent rank, UNLV significant advantage over Hawaii number
seventy three. In overall talent rank Hawaii number one twenty nine,
Hawaii in the top twenty five.

Speaker 6 (41:31):
As far as special teams efficiency.

Speaker 1 (41:33):
UNLV is outside the top fifty. But five factors rank
just raw five factors un V number eighty one, Hawaii
number eighty. But when you do five factors plus talent,
un l V number seventy five, Hawaii number one hundred.

Speaker 8 (41:49):
This is a.

Speaker 6 (41:51):
Crazy close number.

Speaker 1 (41:55):
My last four weeks has UNLV by four and a half.
Ish power rating has UNLV minus four point two. Projected
stat spread has UNOV minus four and a half. There
are still two and a half's out there. I don't
like Hawaii away from the island. I will take UNLV
even though they rarely ever cover it home. I am
gonna take them in this spot, so I will take

(42:17):
UNLV minus two and a half. All right, let's recap it.
We got eight games this week. I'm taking Akron plus four,
Ohio minus thirty two and a half, Western Michigan minus six,
Buffalo minus two and a half, Kent State plus eight,
Arkansas State minus three, n C State plus five, UNLV
minus two and a half.

Speaker 6 (42:37):
Once again, buy meacoffee.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
Dot com slash winning cures five bucks a month, fifty
bucks for the year, and yes, I'm gonna do this
all the way through the National Championship game. You'll get
everything over there, and also subscribe to the channel.

Speaker 6 (42:49):
It's free.

Speaker 1 (42:50):
It helps me out and in turn I can continue
doing this. It's a whole lot of fun. I love
this sport so much. Even the midnight game or midnight
midweek games. Sometimes these are more fun because everybody's watching
them at the same time. It's just it's a good time,
all right. Don't forget tomorrow. We got another one coming out.

(43:10):
Our ten Biggest Games of the Week and Bay with
Slim Piggins. This week, the show was this is a
rough week, and the next week. I'm only gonna have
two videos because I mean, it's Thanksgiving week, Rivalry week.

Speaker 6 (43:24):
We got things to do, all right.

Speaker 1 (43:26):
With that said, let's get out of here. Take care
of yourself, take care of each other. God bless college
football and hopefully all of.

Speaker 6 (43:33):
Your tickets cash this week.

Speaker 1 (43:36):
Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
review or comment, follow at Gary wc on X and
check out the web store For.

Speaker 14 (43:46):
The twelve days of Christmas. Your spot had for me
twelve Christmas eleven cakes at baking, ten salmon smoking, nine
Christmas crackers.

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Eight Lovely Jesus, seven sheets of rap Si stocking fillers.

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Five miss Bies for Christmas case, three Brussels rouse, two
turkey legs, and a Christmas made super Easy.

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You'r spar You're super easy, Supermarket.

Speaker 7 (44:17):
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