Week 13 2025 College Football Picks for the 10 Biggest Games!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Only two more weeks left of the twenty twenty five
college football season. It's week thirteen and we've got the
ten best games of the weekend that we're gonna make
predictions on.

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Speaker 1 (01:10):
Market Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
the different socials, most active on X. You guys ought
to know this by now. We've got ten games that
we're gonna be discussing today and I called them the
ten best games. It's kind of hit or miss this weekend.

(01:35):
This is not exactly the most filled weekend that we've had,
but you know, there's still some important games, some games
that if the higher rated team are the favorite loses,
could certainly affect the playoff race. So there are big
things at stake this weekend, just not as many big games,
big name teams as usual. Next week, everybody's on display,

(02:00):
everybody's going to be involved, So we got a lot
to discuss. Don't forget. Subscribe to the channel, like the video,
jump in the comments with your picks, and check out
buying ma Cooffee dot com Slash Winning Cures. But for now,
let's get through games. Game number one, eleven AM Central Time,
God's Time Zone on ABC, Missouri visits Oklahoma Boomer sooner

(02:20):
with a massive, massive win last week in Tuscaloosa, Missouri
of course got off the mat after not looking so
good against Texas A and M, and they put forty
nine on Mississippi State last week, so the offense got rolling.
Things are looking pretty good for the Tigers there. They're
now seven and three overall. Right now, Oklahoma in eight
and a half to nine and a half point favorite

(02:42):
depending on which book total of forty two and a
half on this one, and let's jump into the stats here,
Oklahoma I would have a projected stats favorite of a
little less than seven points. Power rating has Oklahoma by
eight point two the last four weeks, though only has
Oklahoma by three point seven two. Oklahoma has won the

(03:04):
last two games, but their yards per play difference has
been way back. Right, Tennessee moved the ball that will
on them, but turn the ball over. Alabama moved the
ball that will on them, turn the ball over. Oklahoma
special teams wise number eighteen in special teams efficiency, Missouri

(03:25):
is number one thirteen, so that could certainly go in
Oklahoma's favor again. But Oklahoma with their pump returns with
I mean Tate Sandel is just an absolute weapon. He
hits from anywhere on the field. It's really remarkable how
accurate he is. Looking at overall numbers Oklahoma number twenty
nine in PPA margin. Missouri is number twelve in PBA margin.

(03:49):
That Missouri defense is pretty good, number eleven in success
rate allowed. Oklahoma is number two in defensive success rate allowed.
Missouri on offense number twenty in offensive success rate. Now,
I don't know that they're going to be quite that
with Zoalor's the new freshman quarterback in especially against this
Oklahoma defense. Oklahoma's offense number fifty seven in offensive success rate.

(04:12):
They're number eighty seven and PPA per drive. Interesting game,
very very interesting game. Both of these teams number eighty
eight in turnover margin, which is interesting considering they were
they're plus in the last two games. But you know,
at Missouri number twenty four penalties per game. Oklahoma is

(04:35):
number ninety nine in penalties per game, so not out
there exactly. Oklahoma is number one in offensive red zone
conversion percentage, but their number one hundred in red zone
appearances per game. They're number nineteen in touchdown rate. But
then being number one just goes ahead and shows you
that they are really really good at hitting field goals

(04:57):
whenever they get in range. Oklahoma won three and one
against the spread at home this year. They are minus
three point five margin there, Missouri one and one against
the spread. On the road, they are plus point five points,
so they play a little bit better than expected on
the road. Five factors rank just overall efficiency and whatnot.

(05:18):
Oklahoma is number one in the country, Missouri is number seventeen.
So these are two top twenty teams that are going
at it, and yet Oklahoma is almost a double digit favorite.
It's a weird schedule spot too for Oklahoma. Missouri has
Arkansas next week. Oklahoma has the LSU next week. But Oklahoma,
coming off of two straight road games in Knoxville in Tuscaloosa,

(05:42):
Missouri got walloped by Texas A and M after our
bye week and then last week absolutely put a beating
on Mississippi State. Got some confidence back heading into this
game in Norman. So let's look at when Oklahoma has
the ball. They are number sixty two and points for
scoring opportunity. Missouri's defense is number ninety five, so Missouri

(06:04):
is not great at defending drives like keeping you out
of the end zone. But Oklahoma number fifty eight and
scoring opportunities per game that's getting a first down inside
the opponent forty. Missouri is number twenty seven in scoring
opportunities allowed per game, so only four point five to
six drives per game do they allow the opponent to

(06:25):
get a first down inside their forty yard line. Missouri
is good against the pass, they are good against the run,
and Oklahoma is mediocre at best at both of them.
They're not great passing it. Running the ball okay, especially
with John Mattier, they might be able to do some
things there, but eh, not great for Oklahoma's offense. But

(06:50):
the defense can create that is certainly a big thing.
They are number fourteen in PPA allowed per pass. They
are number eight in PPA allowed to rush. What can
Missouri do offensively to move the football on him? That's
gonna be the question because Oklahoma's number one and rushing
success rate allowed, Missouri is number ten, and Missouri runs

(07:12):
the ball almost fifty six percent of the time. So
will they continue to do this? Will they? You know,
we'll see. But that defensive line for Oklahoma is for real.
First half point margin Oklahoma number sixteen, Missouri number forty five.
Second half point margin Oklahoma number twenty six, Missouri number

(07:32):
twenty two. Both of these teams are five and four
against the spread right now, I'm I think this might
be too many points. Like I think that the number
is inflated because of the fact that Missouri has a
freshman quarterback and obviously freshman quarterback first start on the road.

(07:52):
That's certainly not good. But the scheduling spot is weird
for Oklahoma as they've got LSU next week and then
they just came off of Tennessee and Alabama on the road.
How emotionally up for this game are they? It's a
good question. I think. I think Missouri's defense comes to

(08:14):
play here. I think nine and a half just to
touch too much. If this thing gets to ten, I
will certainly play back the other way. But this is
not Texas A and M that we're talking about. Oklahoma
is good, but when they got out gained by Alabama
basically two to one, and if the turnovers don't go
their direction, if they don't get a punp return, if

(08:34):
they don't hit every field goal, they don't win that game.
The margin is slim for them. And you're not talking
about a huge talent gap here. Oklahoma number thirteen and
overall talent rank Missouri number nineteen. I'm gonna take the
Tigers here. Give me Missouri plus nine and a half
to keep this around a touchdown or so. Game number two,

(08:56):
eleven am Central Time on ESBN two, Louisville heads two SMU.
SMU favored by three to three and a half depending
on the book at home total of fifty two and
a half to fifty three and a half. And what
an interesting spot. Louisville loses to col then they lose
at home to Clemson last week, and now they go

(09:19):
on the road where they appear to be more comfortable.
They are three and zero against the spread on the
road plus six point two. SMU got the big home
win against Miami, but they are two and three against
the spread at home minus two point six, so they
do not play as well at home for whatever reason. Louisville,
on the other hand, way better on the road. Don't

(09:41):
know how that happens, but we'll we'll take it. We'll see,
all right when SMU is well, let's look at PBA
margin whatnot. People haven't really paid attention to SMU. There's
seven and three straight up this year, same as Louisville.
Only one loss in the ACC so far. Very interesting,
but yeah, one loss in the ACC, number fifteen in

(10:04):
PPA margin. The defense is stealing the show. They are
fantastic against the run, number three in PPA allowed per rush,
number ten in yards allowed per rush. They are number
twenty in rushing success allowed, number fifteen rushing explosively. I
mean they are. They got a good defensive line. They
are really good, really good against the run. You can

(10:25):
throw the ball on them. I don't know that I
trust Louisville to be able to throw the ball on anybody.
Right now. They're number one fifteen and PBA per pass.
Louisville likes to run it more. I don't know that
they're going to be able to do that against SMU,
but we'll see. We will see. So the numbers power

(10:46):
rating has SMU minus three and a half. The projected
stat spread has SMU minus five and a half. The
last four weeks would have SMU minus ten and a half.
Louisville has not looked very good at all in the
past few weeks. SMU again number fifteen PPA margin. Louisville
is number thirty three. Both of these teams, the defense
is better than the offense. SMU not very good at

(11:08):
running the football. The strength of Louisville's defense is against
the pass. SMU is number seventy five in interceptions thrown
per pass attempt. Louisville is number seventeen and interceptions gained
per pass attempt defended. That's gonna be something to pay
attention to. Louisville better in special teams efficiency, SMU is
number ninety five, the Cardinals are number sixty four. Both

(11:32):
of these teams inside the top thirty five and overall
talent rank. Turnover margin SMU is number five, but they
are number ninety six and giveaways per game. They're number
one in takeaways per game. Louisville is number ninety six
and giveaways per game as well, but they are number
twenty one in takeaways per game. So how many turnovers
do we actually get in a game like this. We've
seen some of these games where both teams end up

(11:54):
with three or four turnovers and it just becomes a
battle of wills at that point. Five factors rank, Louisville
is actually better number thirty nine. SMU is number fifty.
Y'all can't see that on the screen. There we go.
First half point margin, SMU is significantly better. Second half
Louisville is significantly better. So it could be a tale
of two halves. With these two teams, looking at who

(12:18):
can finish drives. SMU on offense number eighty three in
points per scoring opportunity. Louisville is number thirty five. On
the other side, Louisville number eighty one in points per
scoring opportunity. SMU's defense is number four. Who do I
trust more in a situation like this? Even though Louisville

(12:39):
is three to zero against the spread on the road
and SMU is two and three, this is a massive,
massive spot for reht lash Land Company. I think this
is a good spot for SMU. They haven't had to
really focus on a team in a while. This is
one that they're going to be focused on, especially at home.
You win this one, SMU can easily get to the

(13:02):
a SEC Championship game again. I'm gonna roll with SMU here.
Give me the Mustangs minus three. That's the best number
we can do right now.

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Speaker 1 (14:52):
If you like these comparison spreadsheets, of course you ought
to know by now, go to buy me a Coffee
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(15:13):
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me Coffee dot Com Slash Winning Cures, the Game of
the weekend, the game of the day. On Saturday, USC
travels to Eugene, Oregon to take on the Ducks and

(15:34):
this one two thirty pm Central Time on CBS. Good gracious,
Oregon favored by eight and a half to nine and
a half depending on the book total of fifty nine
and a half to sixty and a half depending on
the book there as well, Good gracious. I don't know
why my database started doing this USC minus negative eight

(15:55):
and a half, which really should just be Oregon minus
eight and a half half. Uh So I got a
player around with that a little bit. But either way,
my status projected spread has Oregon by eleven point three
four the power rating has Oregon by eight. Last four
weeks would only have Oregon by less than one point.
Oregon has not looked fantastic in the past. In the

(16:19):
past few weeks, I will say that, and yet I mean,
this is still a fantastic football team. Number three and
net points per play or sorry, net points per drive.
They are number seven in offensive success rate, number seventeen
in defensive success rate. They are fantastic against the pass,

(16:40):
which is really what USC is best at. Like you
can say, well, they're number nine and PPA per rush
and number ten and yards per rush, the number five
and PPA per pass, number six and yards per pass attempt.
But this team I believe is more suited to throw
the football now. Ja Maeva has not exactly looked killer

(17:03):
in the past few weeks, basically ever since the Notre
Dame game, but they keep finding ways to get it done.
So it is what it is, right, Oregon kind of
the same thing. They certainly certainly took Minnesota behind the
woodshed last week. You're looking at number one in net
explosiveness in Oregon, number twelve in USC, and that number

(17:26):
I think surprised some people when it first came out,
where Oregon is nearly favored or favored by double digits.
This is a massive game for USC as well. But
Oregon being at home, I mean that's a big, big,
big spot. Oregon number thirty seven and special team's efficiency
USC is number fifty two. USC a much better field

(17:46):
goal kicking unit, but as far as kick returns, et cetera,
blocking punts, all that, Oregon is a little bit better
in that. Oregon a more talented overall team number seven
and overall talent at on three. USC has number seventeen
when Oregon has the football, number twenty four. In points
per scoring opportunity, USC is number thirty four. In points

(18:08):
allowed per scoring opportunity. The difference there is that USC
is number one thirty in allowing scoring opportunities per game,
that is when the opponent gets a first down inside
your forty yard line, and Oregon is number forty five
and scoring opportunities per game. So Oregon will have plenty
of chances once they get down there. And once they
get there, USC's defense number seven in red zone conversion percentage.

(18:30):
They are number fifty three in red zone touchdown rate.
Oregon's offense is number twenty one in red zone touchdown rate,
so you would imagine Oregon will be able to finish
drives when they get into position to do so. Interesting
Interesting for the Oregon defense is when USC is on offense,

(18:50):
they are number eleven in points per scoring opportunity. They
are number thirteen in scoring opportunities per game. Oregon is
only number two in scoring opportunities allowed per game, but
they are number fifty in points for scoring opportunity. They
are number one twenty six and defensive red zone touchdown rate,
so if USC can get down there, they should be
able to put up touchdowns instead of field goals just

(19:12):
tossing out there. Oregon is number four and five factors
rank USC is number eighteen, so in the overall things
that win football games, Oregon is better, although both of
them are inside the top twenty, so it could come
down to just a couple of plays here. I look
at this, and you know current strength the schedule is

(19:34):
number thirty six for USC, number thirty one for Oregon.
Oregon doesn't have any massive wins on the schedule, so
this game is gigantic for them. They can win this game,
have only one loss on the season and still not
make it to the Big Ten title game, but they
will almost certainly get a home playoff game if they
win this one. If they lose it, they might not

(19:56):
make the playoffs at all, even with two losses, because
then they would be stuck behind US, who also has
two losses. USC one and three against the spread on
the road minus three point three. Most of those are
when they go outside of their time zone. They do
not cover well in other time zones. This is in Eugene.

(20:17):
They should be comfortable with this one. Oregon four and
two against the spread at home plus three point eight,
so there is a little bit of a difference there.
I look at these two teams and I think we
might be overthinking it a little bit. I think that
Oregon is the significantly better team. I think that they
will put on a clinic here and USC. Yeah, they

(20:42):
were able to handle Michigan at home. I don't think
this Oregon team is Michigan. Oregon is significantly faster. I
think that they've got enough people back from injury. I
think they're going to be just fine. The best number
I can get is eight and a half. I will
take the Ducks minus eight and a half. Number four.
Two thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone on ABC,

(21:05):
the Arkansas Razorbacks, still sitting at only two wins on
the season. They are headed to the Texas Longhorns, who
absolutely got housed last week at Georgia. Arkansas two and
eight straight up, and yet they are power rated number
twenty eight in the country because they are plus eighteen

(21:29):
point differential on the season. That is just crazy to
think about. Thirty four point one to zero offensive points
per game, thirty two point three to zero defensive points
per game. They lose in some of the most inexplicable
ways possible. There's a huge discrepancy in turnover margin here.
Arkansas number one, thirty in turnover margin, Texas is number twelve.

(21:53):
Texas does not turn the football over number eight and
giveaways per game Arkansas is number one twenty three and
giveaways per game. Arkansas can generate a turnover number one
nineteen and takeaways per game. Texas is number thirty in
takeaways per game. So you would have to imagine at
some point Arkansas is going to turn the football over here,
which is why this number is out to nine and

(22:15):
a half or ten Texas favored nine and a half
to ten depending on the book, fifty five and a
half to fifty six and a half for the total
depending on the book. Arkansas, I mean can't stop a
nosebleed on defense, it feels like, but Texas's offense isn't
exactly great. They can't run the football, and when you
can't run the football you rely on passing. It bad

(22:37):
news for Arkansas. They can't stop the pass either. There
are number fifty eight and a havoc. Texas is number
seventy three and havoc allowed. So if you can get
after arch Manning, maybe you can make him make a mistake.
They just haven't really done that all year. So it
is what it is. It's a very tough one to

(23:00):
figure out exactly where the motivations lie Arkansas, I think
once that first win for Bobby Petrino, so they are
they're going to go at it on offense. And this
Texas defense is still really good. They're not great against
the pass. They're number seventy two in QBR allowed. They
are number forty two in passing explosiveness allowed, number sixty
three in passing success allowed, and Arkansas is number twenty

(23:23):
five in PPAPRI pass number eighteen in yards per attempt,
number thirty four in QBR, number eleven in passing success right,
number twelve in passing explosiveness. They're pretty good. The issue
might be Texas is number fourteen in HAVOC and Arkansas
is number eighty seven and havoc allowed. So yeah, if
they can get after Taylor Green, they're probably going to

(23:45):
get some some interceptions off this Arkansas number ninety seven
and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. So running the ball,
Arkansas is really good at running football. Number one in
rushing explosiveness. They're number seven in PPAPRI rush, but Texas
is number five and PPA allowed per rush. Who do
you trust to take care of the football. I trust Texas.

(24:07):
Do I think that they are ten points better than Arkansas? No,
because I don't know. I mean that loss last week
basically knocked them out of the playoff. They just got
done playing Georgia. They have to play Texas A and
M next week, and then you get Arkansas just right
in the middle. I think Arkansas is more motivated to
win this game than Texas is. When you look at

(24:31):
five factors, Texas at number fourteen, Arkansas's number thirty six.
When you do five factors plus talent, Arkansas number twenty four,
Texas number eight. And these are two teams both with
top ten strength of schedules. So Arkansas has been playing
pretty well against really good football teams. Yeah. I know

(24:55):
that my projected SAT spread has ten or has Texas
minus ten point eighteen. Our rating Texas minus nine and
a half. But the last four weeks only has Texas
by a little less than three points, even with the turnovers.
Even with all that, I think Arkansas hangs around in
this thing, and I think they can make Texas really uncomfortable.
Give me the Hogs best numbers ten. I will take

(25:17):
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Speaker 1 (26:58):
Make sure and jump in the comment let me know
your picks on these games, because I might need some
help with some of these. Motivation is certainly a factor
in some, but I want to know what you are
taking against the spread this week. But make sure and
subscribe to the channel and like the video while you're
at it. Game number five, two thirty pm Central Time
on ESPN, Kentucky travels to Nashville. They are going to

(27:21):
take on the Vanderbilt Commodes. Vanderbilt coming off of a
bye and Vandy right now favored by nine and a
half to ten depending on the book total of fifty
three and a half to fifty four and a half.
And Kentucky all of a sudden has life. Got a
big win over Tennessee Tech, who is not an awful
FCS team, massive win over Florida, they beat Auburn on

(27:42):
the road. I mean, this is three straight wins for Kentucky,
who now sits at five and five. Very interesting. Vanderbilt
five and one against the spread at home plus five
point six, Kentucky one and two against the spread on
the road plus point three. Kentucky is interesting, very interesting.

(28:03):
In overall five factors rank just raw five factors, Vanderbilt
number five, Kentucky up to number twenty eight. When you
do five factors plus talent, Vandy is number ten, Kentucky
number twenty three. So there's not a huge difference between
these two. Vanderbilt not very good against the pass. I
will tell you that they are pretty good against the run.

(28:24):
We'll start with Kentucky on offense. Kentucky is number forty
four in points per scoring opportunity, Vanderbilt number eighty, so
Kentucky should be able to finish drives against this against
this Vanderbilt defense, Vanderbilt, as I said, can't stop the pass.
Kentucky's numbers are getting better. This Bowley kid is okay.

(28:44):
He can throw the football a little bit. They have
figured out something with this offense. They are number eighty
one in PPA, p pass number eighty and yards per
pass attempt number seventy six in QBR. Vandy's defense number
one oh four in QBR allowed, number one twenty one
in PPA allowed per pass. Interesting. Interesting Now if Kentucky
wants to run the football, which they do, run it

(29:06):
more than fifty four percent of the time. They're number
twenty four in rushing success rate. Vandy is number forty
four and rushing success allowed. That's gonna be interesting on
that side of the ball. I think Kentucky will be
able to run the football some on these guys and
it'll open up at least enough of the passing game.
On the other side. Kentucky's, i mean, Mark Stoops's defense

(29:27):
is really good. But what Vanderbilt does is unlike what
anybody else does. They are number four in PPA per
drive on offense, number six in offensive success rate, excuse me,
number four PPA pri pass, number five PPA per rush.
Kentucky's defense is good at slowing some teams down. But

(29:48):
there are certain things that you know points per scoring opportunity.
For example, Vanderbilt number two in the country in points
per scoring opportunity, Kentucky's defense is number eighty six. Now
the difference there and why this could end up being
a closer game than you would think is Vandy is
number eighty one in scoring opportunities per game. So yeah,

(30:11):
they're able to move the ball and whatnot, but they
don't always get down there enough. I mean, they are
number one oh seven in pace of play. Kentucky is
number sixty six in pace of play. If you don't
have that many possessions, then you can't really get down

(30:32):
there all that often. So six point two drives per
game where Vanderbilt gets a first down inside the opponent
forty yard line. That's good for number eighty one in
the country. Kentucky number fifty three. Five point seven to
eight drives per game where they allow the opponent to
get a first down inside of their forty they are in.
Kentucky's defense is number eighty six in points allowed per
scoring opportunities. So both of these offenses should be able

(30:54):
to put up points on the opposing team, and then
it comes to down to turnover margin, et cetera. Kentucky
is number one on one in turnover margin number one
fourteen and giveaways per game. Vandy is number fifty one
in turnover margin, number thirteen in giveaways per game. So
Kentucky better at takeaways than Vandy. Vandy better at not

(31:15):
turning the ball over dan Kentucky. Vandy better on special teams.
Vandy has more penalties per game. I mean, this is
I think this is a tighter game than people would think.
So Kentucky feeling good about themselves. You know, we've got
a total of fifty three and a half on this.

(31:35):
It's up to fifty four and a half at some books.
I think we see something interesting out of this. Kentucky
is playing for a bowl game. You gotta beat Vanderbilt
or you gotta beat Louisville one of the other, and
that'll get you to your sixth win. Vandy has got
Tennessee next week. They are feeling the hype right in

(31:57):
November eight gets a little bit thicker done it. It's
gonna it might be a little bit harder to breathe
in these waters because Kentucky's or Vanderbilt's never been here before.
I like that. This one's a double digits already. I'm
going with another road dog. Give me Kentucky plus ten
in Nashville to hang with Andy. Three pm Central time

(32:18):
on Fox. We got a big twelve matchup TCU going
to Houston, and right now, Houston a two and a
half to three point favorite depending on the book total
of fifty four and a half across the board on
this my projected stat spread has Houston by zero point
seven points. My power rating has Houston by point one points.
My last four weeks has Houston minus ten and a half.

(32:41):
TCU has not looked good, and that might be putting
it mouthly. They got just boat raced by BYU, and
I don't even know how to had to properly explain
that one because it was just a beating. Both of
these teams outside the top eighty as far as special
team's efficiency, although Houston is number eighty and TCU is

(33:04):
number one fifteen, so there is a massive difference. TCU
number twenty six, and overall talent rank Houston number fifty four,
which is a step above what they were the past
couple of years. This is a big time spot for Houston.
They are eight and two on the season. They are

(33:25):
seven to three against the spread. Willie Fritz is doing
big time things and they've got a real shot at
winning ten games this year, which is mind blowing. Nobody
is even thinking about this team. TCU won three and
one against the spread on the road minus four point eight.
Houston three and two against the spread at home this
year minus two point seven. So both teams play a

(33:46):
little bit less than expected on average in this particular spot.
Let's start with TCU on offense number forty one in
points per scoring opportunity. Houston is number one ten points
allowed per scoring opportunity, so they Houston defense not great
at stopping drives, but there are number twelve in scoring

(34:08):
opportunities allowed per game, so they do not let you
get a first down inside their forty very often. Some
of that could be due to pace of play. Houston
is number fifty seven. TCU is number seventy one. Gonna
be interesting to watch, I think TCU. Looking at five factors,

(34:28):
TCU is number forty six, Houston number sixty four. On
the other side of the ball, when Houston has the ball,
there are number one oh nine and PPA per drive,
that's predicted points added per drive. TCU's defense is certainly
their worst point on the field, their worst spot on
the worst group on the field. And yet Houston is

(34:55):
really bad at running the football, and yet they try
and run it over fifty seven percent of the time.
They are number one thirty two in PPA per rush,
number ninety and yards per rush and they run it
over fifty seven percent of the time, Number one oh
seven in rushing success rate. And TCU is great at
defending that. Houston When they throw the football, they're pretty
good at it. Number forty in QBR, number forty two

(35:16):
in yards per attempt. TCU is not good at defending
the past. They're number eighty four in yards allowed per attempt,
number eighty seven in QBR allowed. If Houston were to
throw the football more, they would probably have more success
against this particular matchup, but they are pretty hard headed
about running the football, so we'll see exactly what they

(35:37):
end up doing. They are number eighty eight in points
per scoring opportunity TCUs defense, number fifty nine in points
allowed per scoring opportunity. Let's look at some red zone
percentages on offense. Number fifty seven in red zone touchdown rate.
They are number eighty two in red zone appearances per game,
TCU number fifty one in red zone appearances per game allowed,

(35:58):
number seventy two in red zone touchdown rate. So if
Houston gets down there, I would imagine that they're able
to convert some of them. On the other side, TCU's
offense is really good at throwing the football. They kind
of suck at running the football number eighty eight and
rushing success right number one twelve and ppe a rush

(36:19):
number seventy nine in red zone touchdown rate, but they
are number forty one points per scoring opportunity as I
mentioned before, But they get down there a lot. They're
number seventeen in red zone appearances per game. Houston is
number twenty two in red zone appearance is allowed per game,
but they're number thirty two in red zone touchdown rate,
So you're probably not going to get score many touchdowns

(36:41):
down there. If that is the case, Like you're talking,
explosive plays could really make or break this game. And
as far as passing explosiveness, Houston number eighty three. TCU
can eat them alive with that. So you look at

(37:01):
current strength to schedule, TCU number forty seven, Houston number
seventy three. I don't know if Houston has played a
passing attack quite to this level. And TCU is looking
to get things back on track after two straight losses,
so I think TCU kind of opens things up. I
think they I think they can throw in Houston. Houston's

(37:25):
out to three. I will take TCU plus the three.

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Vaping on HC.

Speaker 1 (39:14):
Don't forget when you like the video, and make sure
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and click on buy meacoffee dot com, slash Winning Cures
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and enjoy our little community. Add on the game number
seven six pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ESPN.

(39:35):
Pitt is headed to Georgia Tech and yes, Pitt got
boat raced last week by Notre Dame. I'm pretty sure
a lot of teams would have gotten boat raced by
Notre Dame last week, but Pitt was also not all
that worried about that game. Georgia Tech right now favored
by two and a half at home total of sixty
one and a half to sixty two and a half,

(39:55):
and looking at the numbers, projected SAT spread has Georgia
Tech by one point one six. My power rating has
Georgia Tech by point seven. Last four weeks has got
Georgia Tech by zero point three seven. So we were
talking about a tight, tight football game here. That is
an odd implied scorer. What is going on with this database.

(40:19):
I'll have to fix that anyway. So Georgia Tech number
thirty two in PPA margin, Pitt is number thirty five.
Pitt has been playing significantly better with Mason Heinchel at
quarterback than what they were early in the season. The
offensive number still have not quite caught up. Still not

(40:40):
great at running the football, a whole lot better throwing
the football, but that is totally a k Bell offense.
Right They throw the ball the eighteenth most in the country,
fifty five point four to four percent of the time
they are throwing it. Georgia Tech on the other hand,
they run the ball thirty six to most in the

(41:01):
country over fifty five percent of the time, and they
are really good at it. The issue for Georgia Tech
is that Pitt's defense is good at defending the run
number nine and PPA allowed per rush, number five in
yards allowed per rush, number three in rushing success allowed,
number twenty one in rushing explosives allowed number three in
offensive line yards allowed number five and stuff rate. This

(41:23):
sounds like a Pat Norduzi offense or defense. Excuse me,
the offense is certainly weird, but Nordoozi at least has
been adaptable enough to understand what his football team needs.
I mean, this is still a seven and three football team, right.
Georgia Tech's offense is really good number fourteen in PPA
per drive. Pitt's defense is really good number fifty seven

(41:45):
in PPA pri drive allowed. Pitt's offense number sixty six
in PPA pro drive. Georgia Tech's defense is number one
oh four. I mean they left Boston College. There was
twelve hundred yards of offense in that game last week. Georgia
Tech probably should not have beaten Boston College last week,
and yet here we are Georgia Tech nine and one

(42:08):
on the season. There are four and one against the
spread at home plus four point two. Pitt is three
and one against the spread on the road plus two
point three, So this PIT team has been playing pretty
well on the road as well. Current strength to schedule.
As bad as Pitt's schedule has been, Georgia Tech's has
been worse. Number eighty eight in current strength to schedule,

(42:30):
PIT number sixty nine. So let's take a look at
who can finish drives, et cetera. PIT. For as much
as they, you know, get the ball up and down
the field, they are number three in scoring opportunities per game,
so five point four to four drives per game that
they get a first down inside the or sorry, sorry,
this is completely backwards. PIT on offense three point eight

(42:55):
to two drives per game. That's not ready either, sorry
Number four. Pitt's offense is number four in scoring opportunities
per game. I did sometimes I get going too quick?
Don't sometimes. Pitt's offense number four in the country in
scoring opportunities per game eight point six to seven drives

(43:15):
per game that they get a first down inside the
opponent forty. Georgia Tech's defense is number forty seven in
scoring opportunities allowed per game, but PITT is number sixty
five in points per scoring opportunity, so they're not great
at finishing drives three point eight two points per possession
that they get first down inside the opponent forty. That
could also go on and tell you that PITT is

(43:38):
number one oh six in offensive red zone touchdown rate,
even though they're number four in red zone appearances per game,
just a little over half the time do they score
a touchdown when they get inside the red zone. Not great, however,
Georgia Tech, they are number fifty four in points allowed
per scoring opportunity, number fifty six in red zone touchdown
rate allowed. Oh, let's see what that means. Let's see

(44:04):
what that means. George Deck is number one twenty nine
in takeaways per game. Pitt is number twenty one in
takeaways per game. As far as giveaways per game, Georgia
Tech does not turn the ball over, number twenty five
and giveaways per game. Pitt is number one fourteen in
giveaways per game. So this is hat on hat. Let's

(44:25):
see who can actually make the other blink at this point,
because Pitt wants to give you the ball george Deck
doesn't want to take it. Georgia Tech doesn't want to
give you the ball. Pitt wants to try and take
it away. That's the way it works. On the other side,
georgiea deck on offense number sixty three in points per
scoring opportunity. Pitt's defense number one fourteen. However, Pitt is
number three and allowing first downs inside their forty. Georgie

(44:48):
Deck is number twenty in that position. Georgia Tech, for
whatever reason, has not been playing great. They're nine to one,
but they're number forty seven and five factors rank. Pitt
is number forty. Pitt a much better first half team.
Georgia Tech is slightly better in the second half, but
they're still not as good as Pitt when it comes
to you know, points per game margin, et cetera. I

(45:12):
think Pitt can go down there and win this game
in Atlanta. I think I think they're probably going to
win the game. So with this thing sitting at two
and a half in favor of Georgia Tech, you know,
I showed you the last four weeks, last four weeks
power rating and the projected stat spread, all I have
Georgia Tech by less than this two and a half.

(45:35):
That's the direction I'm going. So I don't trust this
Georgia Tech defense, and I think Pitt's defense is just
good enough to slow down Haynes King company. I will
take the freshman. I'll take the freshman quarterback over Haynes
King here. That's a rough one. Give me Pitt plus

(45:56):
two and a half. Game number eight, six thirty pm
Central Time, this one on ABC. Tennessee heads to Florida.
Valls fans are having nightmares already about this. Tennessee at
three and a half point favorite total of fifty seven
and a half. And make the numbers make sense. It
has been since two thousand and three that Tennessee has

(46:20):
won in Gainesville. Two thousand and three, twenty two long years.
Coaches have come and gone for both programs, and yet
one thing remains true. The Valls cannot win in Gainesville.
If there were ever a time for that to change,
it should be this season. It should. But alas here

(46:46):
we are, we're looking at a spread that's just a
touch over a field goal. My power rating has Tennessee
by three point six. My projected stat spread has Tennessee
minus eight, and yet the numbers over the last four weeks,
even with the blowout loss to Kentucky, because I believe
most of that was in garbage time, I would have

(47:08):
Florida favored by eighteen point eight points just based on
the last four weeks of play. That is insane, absolutely insane, Okay.
Tennessee's current strength schedule is number twenty eight, Florida's is
number two. Five factors rank Tennessee is number nineteen, Florida's

(47:29):
number fifty two. If you do five factors plus talent,
Tennessee number sixteen, Florida number twenty seven. You look at
points for a game differential, Tennessee number twenty one, Florida's
number ninety four. Tennessee is not great on defense. That
has been their problem all year now, number forty two

(47:50):
in defensive ppa allowed per drive. They are number eighty
nine in defensive success rate allowed, number one oh five
in rushing success allowed. Florida number twenty seven in rushing
success rate. There are number seventy seven in overall offensive
success rate. Very interesting because when you look at it,

(48:12):
you think that Tennessee can stop to run. They are
number twenty six in yards allowed per rush. They are
number thirty seven in rush rate number forty six and
rushing explosive this allowed number twenty five in offensive line yards,
et cetera. Florida is number twenty seven in rushing success,
but their number ninety four in yards per rush, number
thirty eight, offensive line yards number thirty and stuff rate.
Some of this has to do with who you have played,

(48:35):
and Florida has played some tough, tough defenses. So let's
look at when Tennessee has the football number eighteen in
PPA per pass, number fifteen in yards per pass attempt,
number twenty in QBR. Florida's defense number seventy seven m
PPA allowed for pass, number one four in yards allowed

(48:56):
per attempt, number seventy seven in QBR, the number one
oh one in passing explosiveness, and they are number ninety
in havoc great. So if they can't get after the quarterback,
it could be a really long day. I already wonder
if it's been if it's going to be a really

(49:16):
long day, because I don't know how many times Florida
can get back up off the mat. Right, they were
in the game in Oxford until the very end, right
quick Florida two and two against the spread minus one
point six against the number. At home, Tennessee one and
two against the spread, but they are plus two against

(49:38):
the spread away from home. It's very interesting numbers. All
of these different numbers would lead you to believe that
you should be taking Tennessee here. Pace of play Tennessee
is number one in the country, Florida's number eighty eight,
so Florida's going to try and slow them down. Points

(50:01):
per play margin, turnover margin. Both of these teams not
great at, you know, preventing turnovers. Florida's number one fourteen
and giveaways per game at Tennessee number ninety six. Tennessee
is number fourteen, and takeaways per game. Florida is number
forty three in takeaways per game. This Tennessee offense number
ten in points per scoring opportunity, so they're pretty goodt

(50:22):
finishing drives. Florida's defense is number sixty in points allowed
per scoring opportunity. On the other side, Florida number sixty
nine in points per scoring opportunity. Tennessee number one oh five,
So if Florida gets down there, they should be able
to put up some points. Kind of the same thing
with Tennessee. If they get down there, they should be
able to put up points. I we're talking twenty two

(50:46):
years of history. But I think when a team finally
gets over the hump, they completely blow it out of
the water. Right like back when Tennessee could not beat
Alabama for years and years. This back in the mid nineties,

(51:07):
when Peyton Manning was a sophomore, they went to Birmingham.
They had not beaten Alabama in eight years. It had
taken a very long time, and they just opened a
can of whoop pass on them forty one to fourteen.
Peerless Price was thrown an eighty hour touchdown pass on
the first play of the game. Stuff like that is

(51:28):
how these things typically go. This Florida team, I don't
know how much is left in the tank, right. They
have put up fights and put up fights, and then
you saw what it looked like when everything just crashed
out on them, Like Kentucky beat him thirty eight to seven.
Josh Hypel won't take his foot off the gas if

(51:52):
he gets them in a precarious position. No, I don't
trust the Tennessee defense, but I do think that they
will have enough explosive plays, etc. I mean, Florida's just
they've had so many guys hurt all this kind of stuff.
I just I don't think they can keep hanging on.

(52:15):
I'm going against twenty two years of history. Give me
the Tennessee Volunteers minus three and a half on the
road to finally get the Florida monkey off their back?
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Dot com a.

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Confidential conversation you can trust.

Speaker 1 (53:10):
Don't forget. You need to subscribe to the channel. It's free.
I don't ask for much, but if you would subscribe
to the channel and make sure and like the video,
share it out with your friends. I think there's like
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I would certainly certainly appreciate that and jump in the
comments as well. I want to know your picks on
these games. Toss them in there. Game number nine takes

(53:32):
us to the Big twelve and Cincinnati is hosting BYU,
who is a potential playoff team even though they got
she lacked by Texas Tech. But everybody's getting selacked by
Texas Tech other than theirs on the state, so it
is what it is. BYU currently a two and a
half point favorite. This one's seven pm Central time on Fox.

(53:54):
Total fifty four to fifty four and a half depending
on the book. Cincinnati did not look good last week
against Arizona. Arizona's defense really was able to stifle them,
and BYU looking to do the same thing here. My
projected stat spread has BYU minus three point seventy five.

(54:15):
My power rating has BYU minus three point six. My
last four weeks actually has BYU minus ten point eight seven.
So Cincinnati has fallen off pretty drastically. You look at
the five factors rank number sixteen for BYU, number twenty
one for since he and yet when since he has
gone up against better competition, they have not looked good,

(54:41):
like not even close. BYU was able to beat Utah.
It was only about three, but it is what it
is since he got shellacked by Utah. Since he's current
strength schedule is number fifty seven, BYU is number twenty seven,
so there is a massive difference there BYU number twenty

(55:01):
one and ppa margin since he number twenty four. Let's
look at when Cincinnati has the football, they are number
six in points per scoring opportunity. BYU's defense is number
thirty three. However, since he is number fifty eight in
scoring opportunities per game, that's when you get a first
down inside the opponent forty. BYU is number fifty at
preventing scoring opportunities per game. On the other side, BYU

(55:25):
is number forty nine and points per scoring opportunity that
since the defense is number sixty four, BYU is number
ten in scoring opportunities per game, so seven point seven
to eight drives per game that they get a first
down inside of the opponent forty. Since he is number
sixty eight at allowing scoring opportunities per game.

Speaker 4 (55:44):
I.

Speaker 1 (55:46):
Wonder about this like this BYU team is just a
good overall fundamental football team. They are better on defense
than they are on offense, and vice versa. For Cincinnati,
the issue is since he they want to be able
to run the football, And yeah, that's kind of the
weakness of the BYU defense, except that even that's really

(56:09):
not that bad, right since he is number four in
yards per rush BYU's defense is number thirty eight, since
the number one in offensive line yards BYU is number
fifty in offensive lineyards allowed. Let's look on the other side,
BYU wants to ruin the football, they're number nineteen and
PPA per rush, number twenty four in yards per rush
since he's defense number ninety one and PPA per rush

(56:30):
allowed number sixty eight yards allowed per rush. And then
as far as the defensive line versus the offensive line,
BYU number thirty three in offensive line yards since he
is number one twelve in offensive line yards allowed, it's
only two and a half. I know that you know

(56:51):
this is a letdown spot. Or BYU is going on
the road. Well is three and three against the spread
at home plus four BYU is three and two against
the spread on the road plus four and a half
BYU is playing really good football right now, and they

(57:12):
are in the driver's seat to get to the Big
twelve title game to face Texas Tech. Again, I haven't
seen anything out of Cincinnati to lead me to believe
that they can handle BYU in the trenches. That's the
direction I'm going with this. I'm going with another road favorite,
give me BYU minus two and a half. Game Number

(57:33):
ten takes us late night inside the Pac twelve or
the Big Ten. It's the Big Ten. Washington goes to
UCLA and Washington currently favored by ten and a half
points total fifty two and a half. This one's at
nine thirty pm Central Time, God's time zone on NBC.

(57:56):
Surprising that NBC would have a late night game, but regardless,
that's where we are. Washington, Good gracious, good gracious. UCLA's
current strength of schedule is number eight, Washington number forty one,
so there is a big difference there. Nico was held
out of the Ohio State game due to a concussion.
My guess is he will be back here. My guess

(58:18):
is that it won't necessarily matter unless Washington is just
not all that focused on this one. They do have
Oregon coming up next week. Ucla does have usc I
don't think I don't think UCLA is overlooking anybody right now.
Washington is not great away from home as far as
the spread is concerned. They are one in three against

(58:39):
the number minus three point six. Ucla is even worse
than that at home. Ucla is one and four against
the spread this year minus nine point three. So they
had that fun little little thing in the middle of
the season, and then they've gone back to just not
being able to do hardly anything. They cannot run the football.

(59:00):
They can throw it some whenever Nic goes in, but
they're still not great at that. Let me take that back.
Their defense can't stop anybody, right They are just atrocious.
Number one thirty in PPA allowed for rush, number one
oh nine in PPA allowed for pass. Washington should be
able to do whatever they want to on offense. Demon

(59:22):
Williams is going to have a field day here. Washington
number sixteen in PPA per pass, number eleven in PPA
per rush. Washington is number seventeen in points per scoring opportunity.
Ucla is number one thirty four in points allowed per
scoring opportunity. I don't see UCLA being able to stop
them at all at all now. On the other side,

(59:44):
when UCLA has the ball, they're number one oh eight
in points per scoring opportunity. Washington's defense is number thirty nine,
so they'll let you move the ball some like they're
number one oh three and available yards margin, but they
don't let you finish drives. Defensive red zone conversion percentage,
they're number fifty eight eighty three point three three percent,
but they are number twenty seven in red zone touchdown

(01:00:06):
rate allowed. USLA is number eighty in red zone touchdown rate.
Now they kick field goals and why notot when they
get down there, but that's about it, and you can't
be traded touchdowns for field goals. The projected stat spread
could already tell you this spread. On this Washington minus
ten and a half is the spread total fifty two

(01:00:27):
and a half. My projected stat spread has Washington by
about thirteen and a half points. Power Rating has Washington
minus ten point nine, and yes, home field is including
that last four weeks would have Washington by twenty eight
and a half points. I think we get closer to
the last four weeks tossing out the Wisconsin game. Washington

(01:00:53):
on the West coast is going to put up crazy
crazy points. I expect them to demolish Ucla here. Ucla
going back home after that Ohio State game. They're beat
up Washington. This it feels like a first half game, right,

(01:01:16):
score a lot of points early, Like Washington is number
sixty five in first half point margin. Ucla is way worse,
number one fourteen in first half point margin. And yet
my projected first half here is Washington minus two point nine.
I ain't buying that. I think Washington comes out early,
gets on them.

Speaker 15 (01:01:37):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:01:38):
I know Washington is not a great first half team,
but even still like this is this is going to
be one of those games where I think Washington could
cover every number. So I might start looking at allt
lines and stuff like that. If this thing drops below
ten for whatever reason, it's an automatic for me. But
for today's show, we make picks on this show, I

(01:01:59):
think Washington is the significantly better team. So give me
the Huskies minus ten and a half. All right, let's
recap that bad boy Missouri plus nine and a half,
SMU minus three, Oregon minus eight and a half, Arkansas
plus ten, Kentucky plus ten, TCU plus three, Pit plus
two and a half, Tennessee minus three, and a half
BYU minus two and a half Washington minus ten and

(01:02:22):
a half. Not the greatest slate in the world, but
it is still college football, and we've only got so
many Saturdays left in this regular season, so we better
appreciate it.

Speaker 8 (01:02:31):
While we can.

Speaker 1 (01:02:32):
I'll take you that. Do me if ivor go to
buy me a cooffee dot com slash Winning Cures. Become
a member, hang out with me over there, along with
our other group of quite a few people that have
joined up over there. I appreciate the patronage and the friendship.
We'll just call it friendship because you guys are my friends.
I really appreciate this community.

Speaker 4 (01:02:53):
But do that.

Speaker 1 (01:02:53):
Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. Like the video,
jump in the comments, all that good stuff. I like
talking to you guys, and if you feel like hitting
me up old school Gary Atwinning Cures Everything dot com.
I don't check it all the time, but I will
check it as much as I can. Oh, but that's it.
Let's get out of here. Take care of yourself, take
care of each other. God bless college football, and hopefully

(01:03:15):
all of your tickets cash this week.

Speaker 8 (01:03:17):
Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.

Speaker 1 (01:03:20):
Subscribe, leave a review or comment followed garywcl X and
check out the web store.

Speaker 17 (01:03:28):
Some say it's the look of wonder on the children's faces.
Some say it's catching up with old friends, while others
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know what, They're right? It's all of this and more
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(01:03:53):
forget the Avonmore cream, the cream that makes Christmas life NonStop.

Speaker 18 (01:03:59):
So don't let and flu stop U. For over forty years,
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read the leaflet

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