All Episodes

November 19, 2025 73 mins
College football Week 13 brings a massive Saturday slate with 19 games on the board, and we’re breaking them all down with picks, odds, and matchup edges from the Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, AAC, Mountain West, and beyond. From Rutgers–Ohio State’s name-your-score spot to Arizona State–Colorado and Utah State–Fresno State late at night, it’s a full-day marathon of action.We cover:
  • 1:03 Rutgers vs Ohio State – OSU sleepwalk spot before Michigan, Rutgers offense live enough to cover
  • 3:11 Miami vs Virginia Tech – Hurricanes need style points, VT reeling despite Franklin hire
  • 5:17 Minnesota vs Northwestern – Turnovers, discipline, red-zone battles, bowl stakes for the Cats
  • 8:01 Kansas vs Iowa State – Motivation edge, finishing-drive mismatch, taking points in Ames
  • 11:30 Washington State vs James Madison – JMU dominance, Wazzu travel fatigue, playoff politics
  • 15:16 Baylor vs Arizona – Wildcats surging, Baylor defense collapsing, matchup nightmare
  • 18:36 South Florida vs UAB – UAB’s defensive disaster, USF team-total angles, pace volatility
  • 21:52 Michigan State vs Iowa – Iowa offense awakening, MSU’s defensive collapse, home domination spot
  • 25:22 Duke vs North Carolina – UNC’s offensive issues, Duke’s passing edge, turnover concerns
  • 28:52 East Carolina vs UTSA – Road-warrior ECU, UTSA home strength, finishing-drive questions
  • 32:50 Tulane vs Temple – KC Keeler chaos, Tulane’s road issues, discipline mismatch
  • 37:08 Kansas State vs Utah – Utah’s trench dominance, K-State identity crisis
  • 40:03 Michigan vs Maryland – Lookahead spot before OSU, Maryland collapse, defensive matchups
  • 44:31 Nebraska vs Penn State – Rayola injury fallout, PSU bowl motivation, run-game mismatch
  • 47:16 Illinois vs Wisconsin – Illini passing edge, Wisconsin’s pass-defense problems
  • 50:18 Cal vs Stanford – JKS vs Stanford secondary, rivalry spot, Wilcox’s defense
  • 53:23 North Texas vs Rice – UNT’s elite efficiency, Rice’s turnover issues, pace & scoring profile
  • 57:03 Arizona State vs Colorado – ASU chasing title shot, Colorado inconsistency, havoc mismatch
  • 1:01:55 Utah State vs Fresno State – Strength-on-strength, bowl stakes, turnover variance edge

We dig into power ratings, last 4 weeks form, PPA margin, red-zone efficiency, projected stat spreads, and havoc rates to uncover mispriced numbers, then layer in travel spots, coaching changes, injuries, lookaheads, and November weather.🍺 Become a member at BettingCFB.com!----------🌐 http://www.winningcureseverything.com | 🎙️ Subscribe to the podcast | 🕊️ @GaryWCE on X | 👕 Visit the webstorePartners:


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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's week thirteen. We've only got two weeks left of
the twenty twenty five college football season, so screw it.
Why don't we do nineteen more games on today's show.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the sound of a superpower we all have,
sending Christmas cards to our family and friends and making
them feel loved.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
Who will you.

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Send magic to? Your auntie, your brother, You're bestie living abroad.
You can buy Christmas stamp bucklets in your local post
office or online with free next day delivery. Send Christmas
Love from the heart today on post Send Love.

Speaker 3 (00:40):
A Christmas visit to Dondrum with ma'am is stuff fuller
than Santa Sac. On the twenty fourth at the ice rink,
She's clutching the edge while my little one is lapping
us and Brown Thomas's spraying the perfumes around like air fresheners.
We do Harvey Nichols and always Reese m Ands. She
gets her browsed done at Edvard and pink talk about
her new face. Then it's Katsus and Wagamamma and Hansel
and Grettel Panto at the Male Theater. Later I drop

(01:03):
her home and Mom says, thank you pet. Best day.
Out in Ages, search don drum Town Center and make
a day of it this Christmas.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
Welcome in Winning Cures Everything at College Football Podcast. I'm
your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on the socials
and of course most active on X. You can reach
out to me over there, or you can do the
old school. Wait Gary at Winning Cures Everything dot com.
If you want to tell me about anything, you want
to ask me a question, you can do that. You
can also become a member at buy Me a Coffee

(01:36):
dot com slash Winning Cures. You can reach out to
me that way as well, and I will certainly be
responding to those first. It's five bucks a month, fifty
bucks for the year, and we've got a good community
going over there. We've got some interesting games, if not
great games going on this weekend, so let's not waste

(01:58):
a bunch of time. We've got nineteen games to discuss.
We're gonna go quick. Let's get the game number one,
all right. We start off Saturday morning, eleven am Central Time,
God's Time Zone on Fox. Rutgers going to Ohio State.
Ohio State currently at thirty one and a half point
favorite at home fifty five and a half is our total.

(02:20):
My projected stats spread has Ohio State by thirty point
seven to eight. Last four weeks has Ohio State by
twenty nine. My power rating has Ohio State by a
little less than twenty four points. So looking at the
projected stats spread here, this is a do you want
to name your score game? It opened at thirty two

(02:41):
and a half, it's down to thirty one and a half. Rutgers,
their offense has at least been really good. Ohio State's
offense can do whatever they want to. They're number two
in PPAP drive. Rutgers their offense is number twenty six
in PPAPRI drive. Not great at running the football, but
they are pretty good passing it. The issue there is

(03:04):
that Ohio State's secondary is really good, really good, number
one in passing explosiveness allowed. They are number one in
yards allowed per attempt, number seven in PPA allowed per pass.
And the weakness is the number thirty five in havoc great,
which means they're not elite at getting after the quarterback.

(03:24):
They're not elite at causing turnovers and whatnot. But you know,
Ruggers is number eighty two in havoc allowed. There's it
doesn't matter here this is kind of a joke. You
can name your score. I don't think Ohio State cares

(03:46):
about this game at all. They've got Michigan next week.
I think Ruggers can put up at least some points.
Ohio State should get a big lead and then coast
in the second half. I don't expect them to keep
their foot on the gas the entire time, and if
they're not already thinking about Michigan, that would be a problem.
So in this one, I'm gonna take Rutgers plus the

(04:08):
thirty one and a half on that. All right, Let's
move to game number two. This one to the ACC
eleven am Central time on ESPN, and the Hurricanes currently
number thirteen in the CFP rankings. Not too shabby. Miami
is seventeen and a half point road favorite total of

(04:28):
forty eight and a half. Of course, Virginia Tech just
announced that they have hired James Franklin, formerly of Penn State,
to be their new head coach. This one opened at
Miami minus sixteen and a half. My projected stat spread
has them favored by twenty point five to seven. My
power rating has Miami by seventeen and the last four

(04:48):
weeks numbers has Miami by twenty and a half, so
very interesting, very very interesting. Looking at the spread numbers,
Virginia Tech one and five against the at home so
far this season minus ten point eight. Miami has only
played two road games. They are minus six, but they
are one and one against the spread. This is the

(05:09):
spot where you have got to got to put your
foot on the gas. Miami has two impress voters. They've
got to get back up there to where they are
being compared with, you know, a team like my, a
team like Notre Dame who they beat already. The defense
is fantastic. Virginia Tech is number one twenty nine in

(05:31):
takeaways per game. The thing that has killed Miami in
their two losses has been carson back turnovers. I don't
anticipate that this time. I think they're gonna come out
hair on fire. The defense, I believe is gonna play well.
The number eight in defensive success rate, number thirty one
or sorry, number four in defensive ppa allowed per drive
that's predicted points added as far as points per scoring opportunity.

(05:53):
Miami's defense is number eight, Virginia Tech's offense is number
sixty and on the other side, Miami offense number nineteen,
Virginia tich number one twenty eight, so Virginia Tech can't
stop them from finishing drives either. This one could get ugly.
I wish it was still at seventeen, but I think
motivation is certainly on the cane side, so I will

(06:14):
take Miami minus seventeen and a half. All right, carrying on,
we moved to the Big Ten again, and this is
a fun game, just a very very interesting game. Minnesota
heads two Northwestern, this one on the Big Ten network,
eleven AM Central Time. Northwestern currently a three and a
half point home favorite total of forty and a half.

(06:35):
It took them five turnovers. They were plus five in
the turnover department against Michigan last week just to be
able to stay in that game, and they still lost
at the Horn on a field goal. But I still
think this Northwestern team is okay, right. The defense is
not great, the offense is not great. Theyre pretty good

(06:56):
at runing the football, which is what Minnesota defends best.
On the other side, Minnesota not really good at anything
on offense. They do like to throw it a lot,
number twenty seven in pass rate, but they're not good
at it. Number one sixteen in yards per attempt number
one oh six and QBR well in those metrics, Northwesterns

(07:18):
defense is number sixty four and yards allowed per attempt
number forty five and QBR allowed they're number fifty six
and passing explosiveness allowed. This these are two teams that
play really hard. They are super disciplined. Both are inside
the top five and penalties per game Northwestern number sixty

(07:39):
six and turnover margin Minnesota number thirty eight. But they're
good at different things. Northwestern number forty three and takeaways
per game, Minnesota number eight and giveaways per game. Northwestern
number eighty six and giveaways or sorry ninety six and
giveaways per game, Minnesota number eighty five and takeaways per game.
Who can finish drives? That's the question. Minnesota sixty six.

(08:02):
Then points per scoring opportunity on offense, Northwestern's defense is
number twenty six. Northwestern's offense number one twenty four in
points per scoring opportunity, Minnesota's defense is number ninety four.
So who is gonna be able to finish the drives here?
I'm not totally sure. And let's look at which team

(08:23):
plays better at home versus on the road. Et cetera.
Minnesota zero and four against the spread on the road
minus sixteen, Northwestern five and one against the spread at
home plus eight point seven. Something like that can get
you on the margins. My power rating has Northwestern by four,
My last four weeks has Northwestern minus nine, and I've
got Northwestern minus four point four to six on the

(08:45):
projected stat spread. This thing was five and a half.
It's come all the way down at three and a half. Yeah,
Northwestern needs this one to get to a bowl game.
I'll take the Purple Cats. Give me Northwestern minus three
and a half. All right, we moved to the big twelve.
Oh yes, Kansas heads two Iowa State. This is another

(09:08):
one of those where one team has already made a
bowl game or is already eligible for a bowl game.
Kansas needs one more win to get there. So right now,
Iowa State is a four to four and a half
point favorite, depending on the book. Total is fifty four
and a half to fifty five and a half. It's
eleven am Central time on FS one. My projected stat

(09:30):
spread has Iowa State by four point six. My power
rating has Iowa State by three point four, and my
last four weeks has Iowa State minus eight point three seven.
So this thing was i was three and a half,
it's jumped up to four four and a half. Iowa
st eight at home, two two and one Kansas on
the road two and two Iowa State. For for as

(09:54):
much as we talk about that team six and five
or six five and one against the spread over the
last two seasons, the home field advantage is not great, right,
but they do play a little bit better at home.
They do play a little bit better than expected. Plus
four point seven Kansas minus three against the spread on

(10:17):
the road. Very interesting numbers there. Both of these teams
inside the top thirty one as far as penalties per game.
Both of them are outside the top fifty as far
as turnover margin. But again, you've got a team that
is good at not turning the ball over against the
team that is good at getting takeaways. Kansas number thirteen
and giveaways per game and Iowa State number forty three

(10:39):
in takeaways. Iowa State number seventy five and giveaways per game. Well,
Kansas can't force turnovers the number one oh seven in takeaways.
What is that going to mean? Kansas better special teams
efficiency here? The Kansas defense is rough but this Iowa
State offense has certainly fallen off. They've lost multiple guys,

(11:00):
some guys on defense as well, but defense is still
holding up, which makes sense for a John Heathcock defense
or heat Cock. Excuse me, I I never trust Iowa
State with these short spreads. Like maybe I'm crazy, but

(11:24):
I think Kansas wants this one more. You look at
who can finish drives, et cetera, Like, Kansas isn't good
at finishing drives on offense, but Iowa State is terrible
at defending them on the other side. Iowa State or sorry, sorry,
excuse me. Kansas terrible at defending drives, Iowa State not

(11:45):
good at finishing them on the other side. Kansas's offense
number thirty in points for scoring opportunity, I was State's
defense number nineteen. Who's gonna budge five factors rank Kansas
State is number twenty three. I was staying number thirty five.
I think Kansas might be just overall a little bit

(12:07):
better of a football team, and even though they're on
the road, I think they'll hang within this number. I
think they could win the game outright, So four to
four and a half, it's crazy. I will take Kansas
plus four and a half on the road. Here, look
at me betting on these teams to make bowl games.
Somebody's going to lose. Somebody's going to lose in game

(12:30):
number five, Washington State at James Madison. Washington State has
traveled all over creation. I mean, just bananas. They put
a woman on Louisiana Tech last week, but James Madison
also just put a woman on app State that I mean,
somebody call off the dogs, I mean, what are we doing?

(12:50):
That was gross? Absolutely gross. This thing opened at James
Madison minus twelve and a half. It opened or it
got to thirteen and a half to fourteen depending on
the book. Total is forty two and a half on
this one. It's twelve pm Central Time on ESPN plus
for this, so you will have to have your streamer
for this one. James Madison. Last four weeks, I've gone

(13:12):
about seventeen and a half power rating. I've got them
a little less than ten. And as far as the
projected stats spread, I've got James Madison minus thirteen and
a half. James Madison is number fourteen in PPA margin.
They are number one in defensive success rate allowed. I

(13:32):
mean every number for them is awesome except for penalties
per game. They're number one fourteen in that. Washington State
number one twenty five in turnover margin. James Madison is
not great at turnover at number sixty six, you know,
number fifty six, and giveaways number sixty nine and takeaways.

(13:52):
Washington State cannot generate turnovers. I mean it's wild, really
really wild to think about as far as not allowing
teams to score. I mean, you get down in the
red zone Washington State number fifteen in offensive red zone
conversion percentage when they have the ball, and their number
twenty seven in defensive red zone conversion percentage. But you

(14:13):
look at five factors rank James Madison number thirty four,
number ninety nine for Washington State JMU four and one
against the spread at home, Washington State three and two
on the road. But I feel like they have caught
maybe it's just Virginia and Old miss, but they've caught

(14:35):
them in weird spots. I James Madison is in one
of those positions where you have to win convincingly. I
don't think they want to blow out teams, but if
you want any chance of getting into the playoff, because
again the committee did not rank them again tonight. The

(14:56):
AP has them up at like twenty one. They were
not in the seat FP top twenty five, and that
strength of schedule is just going to kill them. Number
one nineteen in current strength to schedule, I think they
lay it on here. Washington State back traveling again, so
many miles on this team. They've already done way better

(15:20):
than you would have imagined. They are five and five
right now. They've got Oregon State at home next week
to be able to get a win and go bowling,
which would be a huge, huge accomplishment in Jimmy Rodgers
first season. But I don't think they get it done here.
Best number I can get is James Madison minus thirteen
and a half. Yeah, that's the direction I'm going give

(15:44):
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If you haven't already subscribed to the video like no,
subscribe to the channel like the video. Shout it out,
tell your friends about it. All that, and of course
jump in the comments. I would certainly appreciate that. Game
number six, we move to the Big twelve. Baylor is
heading to Arizona this one at twelve pm Central time

(17:45):
noon on TNT, and Arizona right now is six and
a half to seven point favorite, depending on the book
total of sixty two and a half. On this one,
it opened Arizona minus five and a half. It has
of course jumped up. My projected stats has Arizona by nine.
My power rating has Arizona minus seven. My last four
weeks has Arizona minus eighteen. And Baylor has not been

(18:09):
playing well. I think that might be putting it mildly.
They are five and five. This is a team that
I would imagine really would like to make a Bowl game.
Dave Randa got himself off the hot seat last year.
This year, nobody has said anything, But man, this isn't

(18:36):
the market that you want to be looking for a coach,
so he might be safe, but man, they had a
lot of hype coming into the year, and the defense,
which is a Randam side of the ball, has not
been good. Number one oh two in defensive success rate allowed,
number one fifteen and rushing success allowed. Now, part of
that could be who they have had to face, but regardless,
number eighty ppa allowed per drive, and I mean, they're

(18:58):
just bad at everything. As far as stopping the run,
Arizona they don't run it a ton, number ninety seven
in rush rate, but teams are running on Arizona over
fifty six percent of the defensive snaps that they have
to defend. They are number one twenty in yards allowed
per rush, number one fifteen, rushing success allowed, number one
twenty two in offensive line yards allowed, and Arizona is

(19:22):
better than them by far in all of those metrics.
On top of that, Arizona can throw the football some
number thirty seven in QBR. Noah Fafida is still a
pretty good quarterback, especially when they keep them clean. And
Baylor's number one twenty four in HAVOC. On the other side,
what a shame, What a shame. The thing that Baylor

(19:43):
does best, the thing they want to do all the time.
They throw the ball almost fifty nine percent of the time.
Number nine in pass rate. Arizona is number five in
yards allowed per attempt, number three in QBR allowed. They
are number seven in have it created. They are number
twenty five in hassing explosiveness allowed, Number four in passing
success rate allowed. They defend what Baylor wants to do,

(20:07):
maybe better than anybody in the Big twelve other than
I guess Texas Tech, but good gracious. Five factors rank
Arizona number thirty, Baylor number seventy seven. Arizona is four
and two against the spread at home plus six point nine,
Baylor one and three against the spread away from home
minus four point one. I think that they just had

(20:29):
the number wrong to start with. All of my numbers
say to take Arizona, especially at less than a touchdown.
I think some people just have a difficult time trusting
this team after what we saw last year. But this
is a good football team. Seven and three straight up
right now. They got a real chance to be a
nine win football team. They got Arizona State next week.

(20:50):
But I think the I think they're focused here and
I will take Arizona minus six and a half at home,
and that's gonna move us to the AA. I guess
the AC, the American Conference. I think they took out
the athletic for whatever reason. Regardless, two pm Central Time
on ESPN Plus, you got South Florida, who just took

(21:11):
a devastating loss at Navy last week. They are going
to Birmingham. They're gonna take on the UAB Blazers, who
I foolishly, foolishly wagered on last week. Not wagered, but
picked on the show. Just dumb usf is favored by
twenty one and a half here on the road total
of sixty nine and a half. My numbers like UAB

(21:36):
again for whatever reason, and I can't figure it out.
I don't know how they continue to be propped up.
I guess it's the offense. I mean, UAB number fifty
two in offensive successfully excuse me, number forty four in
ppaper drive. They're number fifty seven in PPA per play,

(22:00):
and there weren't a lot of plays. I mean, there
are number forty two in pace of play. But man,
they just don't seem to get it done. Yeah, I
mean this is it's nuts, absolutely nuts. Okay. My projected
stat spread has South Florida minus eighteen point seven. My

(22:22):
power rating has South Florida minus sixteen point two. In
my last four weeks has South Florida minus seventeen. So
it's not like the Bulls have been great by any
stretch of the imagination. And the losses that they've taken
have only been two good teams, Navy Memphis Miami. Navy
and Memphis were both by three points on the road.
I mean they South Florida is two and three against

(22:43):
the spread on the road, but they did absolutely wallop
North Texas. So what does that mean? UAB number one
thirty and five factors rank South Florida's number twenty nine.
I mean this UAB defense is a debacle, absolute debacle.
The total in this is sixty nine and a half.

(23:06):
Now my total, my totals are always wrong on these
G five games. I've got to mess with that in
the offseason. My total on this is fifty six points
seventy five. I might be looking at a South Florida
team total over as opposed to trying to bet the spread,
but I I look at this UAB one and four

(23:27):
against the spread at home, Like, I just the only
time they covered is when they beat Memphis, and that
was coming off of bye week. You fired your coach,
you completely changed, like overhauled everything, and Memphis quarterback got hurt.
I mean, other than that, we've seen nothing out of
UAB to show me that they can cover a number.

(23:48):
So this one will just make it easy. Give me
South Florida minus the twenty one and a half. I
don't feel great about laying it. I think I kind
of like the team total over more. But yeah, I'll
I'll tak South Florida. We make picks on this show,
So yeah, that's what we're doing. South Florida minus twenty

(24:12):
one and a half. Game number eight. Back over to
the Big ten and we've got Michigan State going to
Iowa this one two thirty pm Central time, God's time
Zone on FS one, and right now, Iowa is a
sixteen and a half to seventeen point favorite, depending on
the book. The total is forty two and a half.
And none of my numbers have this thing. I mean,

(24:38):
it's insane. Michigan State, like people really thought that they
would have a chance against Penn State last week. This
Iowa team is better than Penn State, especially at home.
Good gracious. My projected stat spread here has Iowa by
twenty My power rating has Iowa minus seventeen point seven.
My last four weeks has Iowa minus twenty five. And

(25:01):
the offense is starting to come along for Iowa, number
seventy seven in PPA per drive. They're not great at
throwing the football, but you know, I think we've all
kind of come to expect that from them. But I
do still kind of like their passing attack even against
Michigan State. This Michigan State defense is bad. I mean,

(25:21):
they are just bad. But Iowa can run the football
number thirty seven in PPA Prier Rush, Michigan State's defense
number one twelve. Iowa was number twenty nine in points
for scoring opportunity Michigan State's defense number ninety nine, So
Iowa is going to be able to finish drives against
this defense. On the other side, Michigan State's offense not good,

(25:46):
not good number eighty two and PPA Prier Pass number
eighty five and PPA per rush. I was number twenty
nine and number thirty two in those two On defense
and points for scoring opportunity, Michigan State a little bit
better number seventy eight, but Iowa's number forty five and
points allowed per scoring opportunity, and that's going against Oregon

(26:09):
and USC and you know, Penn State, whatever Indiana. You know.
This is Iowa has played real teams. Anytime Michigan State
plays real teams, they get demolished. I mean it's rough, Iowa.
I mean five factors rank, they are way up there

(26:29):
in five factors rank. Some looks off of that. I'll
have to check into that, but I've got on number
three in five factors rank right now. Michigan State have
got number one oh eight. The one o eight makes
a little more sense. Man, this is crazy, absolutely insane
to look at these numbers. You gotta go Iowa here.

(26:52):
I mean, Iowa is currently six and four straight up.
They're four and two against the spread at home. Michigan
State is four against the spread on the road, but
it's plus two point five and some of the numbers
have just been outlandish. If I can get it, and
right now I can, if I can get it at

(27:14):
sixteen and a half, and Kyle Hunter has always told
me that's a low total double digit spread. You take
the dog hits it like a sixty percent clip, but
that does still mean that there's almost forty percent that
do cover, and I think this might be one of them.
I don't see Michigan State being able to score here.
I will take Iowa minus sixteen and a half, taking

(27:37):
a lot of favorites. Taken a lot of favorites. All
Right to the ACC for game number nine, two thirty
pm Central Time on the ACC Network. Duke in North Carolina,
the Battle of Tobacco Road, excuse me, or the Battle
for Tobacco Road, whatever you want to call it. Normally,

(27:57):
that's a basketball thing. Here. You got Manny d Is
going up against Bill Belichick. This is interesting, Manny Diaz
not holding up his end of the defensive bargain. Number
one twenty three and PPA allowed per drive on defense.
And they are terrible against the pass. Lucky for them,
North Carolina is atrocious passing the football. I mean they

(28:21):
are really really bad. Number one twenty eight in passing explosiveness,
number one oh seven in PPA per pass, number one
sixteen in yards per passe attempt. Duke can at least
somewhat stop the run. They can slow you down, but
they can't stop the pass. On the other side. The
North Carolina defense is coming along. They look all right,

(28:45):
But I mean Duke a number twenty six in yards
per passe attempt, number nineteen in QBR, North Carolina's number
forty four and number fifty seven in those Duke number
thirty in pass success right in North Carolina number fifty.
I think. I think Duke is going to be able

(29:06):
to throw the football on North Carolina. The issue is
can they hold on to it right? Because Duke has
had several of these games where they've given the ball
away a little much. They're number fifty six and giveaways
per game their biggest culprit. They are number one twenty
nine in fumbles lost per rushing attempt. North Carolina's defense
is number forty seven and fumbles gained per rushing attempt defended.

(29:29):
So can Duke hold on to the football? We shall see?
We shall see. So this Duke offense going up against
North Carolina's pretty good defense, a terrible abysmal North Carolina
offense going up against a terrible Duke defense. What are
we going to get here? Duke is three and two

(29:51):
against the spread on the road North Carolina? Or sorry?
Is that right? Yes? On the road Carolina two and
three against the spread at home. I think this ends
the Bowl hopes for North Carolina. Duke did just suffer
a devastating loss against Virginia last week, but they are

(30:13):
still in contention and have a bunch of different tie
breakers they can get them to the ACC Championship game.
Even though they are five and five. It's pretty insane.
They need like one more team to lose, or two
teams to lose, whatever, and it's not crazy to think
that they could happen. So six and a half, I

(30:37):
don't think it's enough. My projected stat spread on this
has Duke minus four point twenty six. My power rating
has Duke minus four point six. My last four weeks
has North Carolina favorite. Here, I'm going against that. I
don't trust North Carolina. They bit me last week. I
thought they were going to hang with Wake Forest. I
was incorrect. This week, you know gona catch me doing that.

(31:01):
I will take the Blue Devils Blue levels as another favorite.
So Duke minus six and a half. Good gracious to
the AAC. We go this one two thirty pm Central
Time on ESPN Plus. Again you're gonna need your streamer,
and we got an AAC contender in East Carolina. They

(31:24):
are favored on the road at UTSA East Carolina minus
two and a half total sixty two and a half.
Let's go ahead and look at these two teams home
and away. East Carolina three zero and one plus fifteen
point nine against the spread on the road, UTSA three
and one against the spread at home plus fifteen point three.

(31:48):
UTSA is a different beast at home. This number is
kind of dead on. My projected stat spread has East
Carolina minus two point seven. My power rating has the
East Carerolna by one. My last four weeks has East
Carolina minus three point nine. The only issue that I'm
seeing is that Utsa's defense cannot stop the pass, and

(32:14):
boy is that Caden Howser kid good throwing it number
thirty seven in yards per attempt, number forty seven in
QBR Utsa's defense number one fourteen and number one seventeen.
As far as running the football, UTSA can stop that
number twenty six and rushing success allowed number thirty two
in rushing success for East Carolina's offense. And East Carolina
runs the ball almost fifty three percent of the time.

(32:37):
Big problem here is who is going to be able
to finish drives. So East Carolina number fifty six in
points per scoring opportunity, utsa's defense number one thirty three.
On the other side, UTSA number sixty seven in points
per scoring opportunity. East Carolina number eighteen on defense. This

(32:58):
East Carolina team, with the three losses that they've got
on the season, they've only got one loss in conference,
and this team their number ninety four. In current strength
of schedule, UTSA is number sixty five that could play
into it. I think that November air gets a little
more thick. It's a little bit harder to breathe. We

(33:21):
talked about this before. I think we talked about it
with South Carolina Texas at M last week. It's just
a little bit more difficult. UTSA not playing for a
whole lot here. They are five and five. They gotta
get to a bowl game. East Carolina has not been
in this position in a long long time. I mean,

(33:42):
you went out, you were probably going to the AAC
title game. I think UTSA catches them. I'm gonna bet
big on the Alamo Bowl here or the Alamo Dome,
not the Bowl. Excuse me, the Alamo Dome gets it on.
Give me UTSA it was three and a half, it's

(34:03):
down to two and a half. I'll even roll with
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If you like these spreadsheets, of course you can check
them out, buy me a coffee dot com, slash Winning
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(36:07):
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I mean that is very simple. Just subscribe to the
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But if you would like to support and you want
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(36:28):
buy mac Coffee dot com slash winning cures game number eleven.
Back to the AAC and we are talking about another
title contender. Two Lane is heading two Temple, this one
at two forty five pm Eastern no Central, excuse me,
two forty five pm Central God's time zone on ESPNU
and two Lane is headed to Temple. Tu Lane is

(36:51):
a seven and a half to eight and a half
point favorite, depending on the book. Total is fifty six
and a half on this and Temple K. C. Keeler
has been doing some things. They have been pretty good
in spots this year. Two Lane has not played very
well on the road. They are two and three against
the spread. Probably should not have won that game last

(37:11):
week against FAU if you're just looking at success rate
and whatnot, but they found a way to get it done.
But they are two and three against the spread minus
ten point two. Good Old Temple three and two against
the spread at home plus point one. So Temple is
slightly better at home. Two Lane slightly worse on the road.

(37:32):
My projected stat spread has two Lane by three. My
power rating has two Lane minus four. My last four
weeks has two Lane minus fifteen point four to one.
If you only watched the Memphis game, you would believe
that two lane is a pretty good team as far
as a P four team. They looked fantastic, especially that

(37:55):
first half. If you watch the second half, it's a
little questionable. You watch the FAU game, you watch the
East Carolina game, you watch there's multiple games this year
where TWU lane has not looked very good, which is
surprising considering they're one of the more talented G five
teams out there. Temple plays way above their head. Defense

(38:15):
is not great. Offense is okay. They're not great at
running the football, one thing that TU Lane has to
look out for. They are number one oh four in
yours allowed per pass attempt, number one oh six and
QBR allowed two lanes sixty three and twenty nine in
those metrics. On offense, TWU Lane is number twelve and
points for scoring opportunity two lanes defense is number seventy

(38:37):
five on that, so Temple number twelve at two lanes
seventy five when Temple has the football. The problem there
is that Temple is number one twenty one in scoring
opportunities per game. That's when you get a first down
inside the opponent forty and they don't get down there
very often, but when they do, they certainly capitalize. It
looks like both of these teams are inside the top

(38:57):
fifty as far as special teams is concerned. The Green
Waves offense, I think is just gonna run the football
at will. Here the number eighty six and rush rate
or sorry, number eighty six and rushing success rate. They're
number thirty eight in yards per rush. Temple is number
one twenty in yards allowed per rush, number one twenty

(39:18):
four and rushing success allowed. So Tulane probably gonna be
able to do whatever they want to. This Temple team
is five and five. They need a win to get
to a bowl game. In K. C. Keeler's first season,
I don't think anybody really expected that Temple is number

(39:39):
five in turnover margin tu lane number twenty seven to lane,
number one twenty six in penalties per game, and they
are number sorry, Temple is number eighteen in penalties per game.
So Temple the much more discipline football team. Both of
them are outside the top ninet eight as far as

(40:01):
pace of play, so this will be a slow game,
especially if Tulane is going to run the football. I
think Temple can throw it on them a little bit,
make them uncomfortable. This number is kind of crazy, but again,
it's November. You've got a team going on the road.
I don't see it with this two lane team now.

(40:23):
Would have surprised me if they decided to blow out Temple. No,
because there's a massive talent advantage for the Green Wave.
But I'm going the opposite way. I'll take Case Keeler
as a dog over time. That has just worked out really,
really well for me. So Temple plus eight and a half.
If this thing ends up hitting double digits, yeah, that'll
that'll end up being a bet for me. Of course,

(40:44):
you can find out whether or not it does over
at Buy Me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures.
Let's move on to the Big twelve in Kansas State
is hosting Utah. Sorry, that's the other way around. Utah
is hosting Kansas State. Good gracious. The Wildcats get to
go on the road to Salt Lake, which has been

(41:05):
devastating for everybody not named Texas Tech. I mean these
numbers for Utah. Number four in PPA margin, number ten,
offensive success rate, number thirteen defensive success rate. This team
is outrageous, and yet they've got two losses on the season.
Kansas State looking for a bowl game. They have not

(41:26):
played well. They are five and five. They are two
and two against the spread on the road plus three
point one Utah at home four and one against the
spread plus eleven point six. Man, just insane to think about.
Kansas State still pretty good on defense. Oh the number

(41:47):
on this by the way, Utah favored at home by
seventeen and a half. Total is fifty two and a
half to fifty three and a half. It's three pm
Central Time on ESPN two. And this one. I mean
the Utah offense I think is going to be able
to move the football running it on this Kansas State defense.

(42:09):
Kansas State number nineteen in offensive line yards allowed, number
forty four and stuff for eight. Utah is number three
and number eight in those. On offense, I mean, Utah
is number three in PBA per rush, Kansas State is
number fifty five. That ain't good, you know, Kansas State
is still pretty good along the line of scrimmage. I

(42:29):
just I've been shocked at this team on the other
side of the ball, both of them, by the way,
outside the top sixty is for special teams. Efficiency is concerned.
Turnover margin Utah number thirty eight. Kansas State is number eight,
but they are number eighty three in giveaways per game,
number three in takeaways, so if Utah doesn't turn the

(42:52):
ball over, this could get tricky for the Wildcats. Penalties
per game Kansas State is number two, Utah is number
sixty four, and if we're looking at five factors, rank
Utah number fifteen in Kansas State at number fifty five.
I I'm not seeing it. Projected stat spread has Utah

(43:15):
by twenty and a half. Last four weeks has Utah
minus twenty nine. My power rating has Utah minus about fifteen.
The projected stat spread, though, is much closer to where
the actual spread is. But it's going over Utah at home.
I ain't betting against that right now, so I'll take

(43:37):
another big favorite. I will take Utah minus seventeen and
a half. I think they think they kind of laid
the wood here. Game number thirteen to the big ten
we go Maryland hosting Michigan this one at three pm
Central Time on the Big Ten Network. Right now, Michigan
is a thirteen and a half to fourteen point road
favorite total of forty five and a half on this one,

(43:58):
and Maryland once again has just completely fallen apart. They
started off four and oh they have lost six straight.
They are decent in the first half against teams and
then they just completely fall apart in the second half.
I mean, it's been it's been rough. They are three
and three against the spread at home, but minus one

(44:20):
point three average margin against the spread. Michigan one in
four against the spread on the road minus five point eight,
so they rarely cover these two touchdown spreads for whatever reason.
Let's start off with this. The projected stat spread has
Michigan by nine and a half. My power rating has

(44:41):
Michigan by nine point one. The last four weeks has
Michigan minus twenty two. Michigan gave away five turnovers last
week and still won the game at Northwestern. Did they
cover no, But all in all, this is still a

(45:02):
pretty good football team. Number twenty six and ppa margin.
The number twenty six offensive success rate defense not great,
especially against the pass. They are number sixty in defensive
success rate, number eighty nine in passing success allowed, So
that's not good. But this Maryland offense has been just
bad all year. They throw the ball almost fifty nine

(45:22):
percent of the time, but their number one twenty five
in yards per attempt, number one twenty two in QBR,
number ninety seven in passing explosiveness. They are number fifty
two in passing success rate, but Man Michigan number forty five.
In passing explosiveness, they're number twenty seven and have it created. Yeah,
And when Maryland tries to run the football, I mean

(45:44):
they are not gonna be able to do it against
this Michigan front at all. Michigan number twenty four in
offensive line yards allowed, Maryland is number one oh four.
I just don't see them being able to do a
whole lot on offense. On the other side of the ball,
the Maryland defense is okay, but they're not gonna be
able to stop this rushing attack number one oh eight

(46:05):
and offensive line yards allowed number one fourteen and stuff right,
Michigan is number twelve and number three in those on
offense Michigan number eighty nine, and points per scoring opportunity
Maryland is number twenty nine. But the difference there is
that Michigan averages seven point four to four drives per
game that they get a scoring opportunity that's the first
down outside the opponent forty and Maryland number one oh

(46:29):
three in scoring opportunities allowed per game, so they give
up almost seven drives per game, so they are really
bad at that. Michigan could kick enough field goals in
this game to be able to cover thirteen and a half.
I think Maryland has already said that. I mean, they've

(46:51):
already said that Locksley's coming back, but I don't know
if that like spruces them up. I don't know if
Maryland plays better at home or whether I should trust Michigan.
I would trustee the one of these teams. Michigan laying
points is terrifying. I mean just terrifying, especially the week
before the Ohio State game. I will look at it

(47:16):
this way. I don't think they care at all about
this game, and they could still end up covering the
spread because I think they'll just run it. But I
think they're going to be very focused on Ohio State
next week. Even though they don't cover spreads very much
on the road. They also don't cover them at home either. So, yeah,

(47:42):
what we're gonna do here is we're gonna take Maryland
plus the fourteen and just hope that this thing ends
like twenty to seven. Would you could totally see with
this Michigan team, like they're not gonna do anything crazy,
They're not gonna get anybody hurt. They are folks on
the game next week, I'll take Maryland plus fourteen. All right,

(48:10):
We're gonna stay in the Big ten. This one had
all the promise, like they booked this at the end
of the season for a reason. This was gonna be
a big one. Nebraska going to Penn State six pm
Central on NBC. Penn State right now favored by nine
and a half total of forty three and a half

(48:31):
to forty four and a half. Take a drink, make
sure I'm ready. Penn State is number forty three and
PPA margin Nebraska is number thirty seven. Nebraska cannot stop
the run. That is what Penn State does best, and
it's what they do the most. They run it almost
fifty five percent of the time. They number thirty one
in PPA per rush. Nebraska's defensive line number one twenty

(48:53):
two in PPA allowed per rush. Nebraska is pretty good
against the pass. The problem is that Penn State is
not going to do that very often, especially with a
young quarterback. Now. As far as points per scoring opportunity,
Penn State number thirty two in points per scoring opportunity Nebraska.
Their defense is number seventy four. Penn State surprisingly number

(49:15):
five in special teams efficiency, and it has not been
able to get them very many wins. Penn State is
still alive to make a bowl game, and you saw
that on full display when they absolutely took Michigan State
behind the woodshed last week. Both of these teams inside
the top fifty one as far as turnover margin, both
of them inside the top twelve. As far as penalties
per game, surprising, surprising this Nebraska offense. You can't really

(49:41):
look at these numbers anymore because Dylan Rala is out
for the rest of the year. The backup quarterback looked
okay against UCLA. I just think that's going to be
difficult to duplicate against Penn State, especially in Happy Valley,
when this team is motivated they would like to get
to a bowl game. I think that Penn State is

(50:04):
actually playing all right and nine and a half. You know,
my projected stats spread has been State minus five point
four four. Power raiding has been State minus seven point four.
Last four weeks has Nebraska minus five and a half.
But I ain't trusting it because Dylan Rail is not there.
I this is the first real road environment for Nebraska's quarterback.

(50:33):
I'll take Penn State here. I think they got some
things cooking. I think Nebraska is not very good without Raola.
Give me the Nitney Lions minus nine and a half
at home, and we are going to State in the
Big or sorry, the Big Ten. You can tell us

(50:54):
late on Tuesday night, can't you good? Gracious? All right?
Game fifteen Illinois at Wisconsin, This one six thirty pm
Central Time on the Big Ten network. Illinois favored by
seven and a half to eight and a half. Here
total of forty and a half on this one that
has come down from the forty two and a half.
Illinois was a nine and a half point favorite. That
has come down. Very interesting spot. Wisconsin has been playing better.

(51:18):
My projected stat spread has Illinois by eight and a half.
Power rating Illinois by eight. Last four weeks has Illinois
by nine point one six and yet the numbers coming
down because Wisconsin has been playing pretty good. There are
two and four against the spread at home, Illinois two
and two against the spread on the road, both of

(51:38):
them worse against the expect or worse against the expected
number by at least a touchdown. In this spot. However,
Wisconsin has been playing better as of late. The defense
is pretty good against the run, but my god, are
they terrible against the pass? I mean, holy mackerel. This

(51:59):
team is this This could be a route because even
though it's at Camp Randle and Wisconsin has been playing better,
they are still really bad against the past. Number one
twenty one and have it created. They are number one
eighteen in PBA allowed for pass, Illinois number fourteen. For

(52:24):
whatever reason, people are just totally buying in on this
new birth and new life and this youth movement and whatnot.
Illinois is number four in special team sufficiency, Wisconsin number
one eleven. Wisconsin doesn't do really anything good and they
can't score points. And if you can't score points, you're

(52:44):
not gonna be able to keep up with all Meyer
because they're going to score. They are number eighteen in
points per scoring opportunity, number forty six and scoring opportunities
per game Wisconsin's defense number forty two in points per
scoring opportunity allowed number eighty one and scoring opportunity, and
he's allowed per game. On the other side, Wisconsin wine
thirty five and points per scoring opportunity even though Illinois

(53:07):
is number one twenty two there, this Illinois defense is
not good. Wisconsin makes it look difficult against error. So
I'm not buying the hype. I'm not buying the renaissance here.
I will say Illinois, I think that they are still
fully bought in here. I think they continue the winning ways.

(53:29):
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Speaker 1 (55:20):
Game number sixteen and let me go and tell you
subscribe to the channel like the video. Jump in the
comments check out buying me a Coffee dot com slash
winning Cures. But game number sixteen ACC Network, six thirty
pm Central time. CAL is going to Stanford, and what
an interesting spot here. This thing was Cow minus two

(55:44):
and a half. It's out to three three and a
half in some spots, total of forty nine and a
half on this one. My projected stats for it has
Cal by two point nine, so almost three. My power
rating has Cal minus one point seven, and man the

(56:08):
last four weeks it would have Stanford favored by two.
It's very very intriguing, uh, looking at this. Stanford is
number one twenty six in PPA margin, CAL number eighty
nine and Cal is already six and four. They got
a chance to hit seven wins here and then next

(56:33):
week a chance to hit eight. I mean, it's just
it's remarkable. When Cal is on offense, they cannot run
the football and they don't try to run the football.
They're number one twenty eight in rush rate. They rush
it only about forty percent of the time. That's about
the only thing that Stanford is good at defending throwing
the football. It's hit or miss, right. They throw it

(56:57):
almost sixty percent of the time, which I would too
if I had JKS number sixty in passing success rate,
number twenty seven in passing explosiveness, Stanford is number one hundred,
number one twelve in those so not great. I think
Cal is going to have success throwing the football. On
the other side, Stanford can't run it. They try and

(57:19):
throw it. They are number twenty eight in pass rate,
but their number one ten in QBR. Cole's defense is
number twenty seven, the number eighty in yards per pass attempt.
Cole's defense is number twenty five, the number one sixteen
and havoc allowed, and Cal's defense is number forty three.
Points for scoring opportunity, Stanford number one twenty six. Col's

(57:41):
defense number fifty two. This is a justin Wilcox defense
is what it is. Stanford number one hundred. In special
team sufficiency, Cal is number seventy eight. Five factors rank
Cal number ninety two, Stanford number one twenty five. I'm

(58:01):
not sure why the number is spitting out less than three,
but I think that Cal is the significantly better team here.
Stanford has been playing better as of late. They still
cannot score and that could be a problem against Brian
Harson and Nikrolovich's defense. Sorry offense, especially with jks so yes,

(58:26):
you can still get a three. I would roll with it.
Give me cal minus three in this one. Back to
the AAC where we got another title contender, North Texas,
another one of those teams that's ranked up there, and
you know their current strength of schedule is bad, but
you get some pretty good wins in the AAC, especially

(58:48):
if you win the title game. So North Texas going
to Rice and this one again six point thirty pm
Central time on esbn U in North Texas is favored
by eighteen and a half total fifty five and a
half on this one. My numbers for whatever reason, are
never high enough on North Texas, never high enough. Last

(59:10):
four weeks, I would have North Texas favored by eleven
point thirty four. Power rating would have North Texas minus
twelve point nine. Projected stats spread would have North Texas
minus fourteen point five to five. This thing was seventeen
and a half. It's gone up to eighteen and a half.
North Texas, their offense is just incredible overall, number eight

(59:32):
in offensive success rate, they are number nine in ppa
per drive, they are number three in points per scoring opportunity.
You look at offensive D zone conversion percentage, they're number
seven in offensive zone touchdown rate. They are number one
in offensive rid zone appearances per game, number twelve in
conversion percentage they are and the reason for that. They're

(59:53):
number sixty six in special teams efficiency. So they're not
great at hitting the field goals. But man, they do
everything right on offense. And this Rice defense is okay,
but they're not great. They're better at stopping the run.
The issue for them is that North Texas is elite

(01:00:15):
throwing the football. That Mestermaker kid is unbelievable. North Texas
number thirty eight and five factors. Rice is number one eleven.
And when Rice is on offense, I mean they run
the ball almost seventy three percent of the time. This
is a triple attack. The problem is that they are
number eighty three in yards per rush number one fourteen

(01:00:38):
and rushing success rate number one oh five, in offensive
line yards number ninety seven, and stuff rate allowed. Like,
they're not great at it, and even though North Texas
is not good at defending it, Rice can still get
in their own way. I've gotten burned on this North
Texas team so many times. They are three to one
against the spread on the road this year plus three

(01:00:59):
point eight Rice at home, two and four against the
spread minus three point four. They actually cover better when
they're on the road. So Rice is still fighting for
a bowl game, Yes, but this is not the team
to be doing that against. They are not good at
stopping anybody. I mean they are this late in the season.

(01:01:24):
They are giving up one hundred percent of red zone conversions.
They haven't gotten a team to miss a field goal.
They have not gotten a turnover in the red zone.
That nothing. They're number one twenty nine in takeaways per game.
North Texas is number three in takeaways per game. This
could be a problem, and I've got to go with Rice.

(01:01:49):
I mean, I've got to go with the North Texas here.
This team scores so much that it's just easier to
handle spreads that are not up to the retouchdowns, especially
against your competition. And this Rice team is not that talented,
and North Texas never takes their foot off the gas
like ever. So I'll go with another favorite here. I

(01:02:11):
will take North Texas minus eighteen and a half to
the Big twelve at seven pm Central time, God's time
Zone on the ESPN two and Arizona State traveling over
to Boulder against a Colorado team that sometimes it looks
like they've just quit. Sometimes it doesn't I don't know
what to make of this team. Arizona State's favored by

(01:02:33):
six and a half to seven, depending on the book,
total is forty eight and a half to forty nine.
Again depending on whichever book you get it at Arizona
State is they've got to entice Sam Levitt to stay
because apparently he is looking at the transfer portal. And
as goofy as this is, they've got a pretty easy

(01:02:55):
road to finish the season. If BYU gets upset again,
Arizona State, if they went out, would have tie breakers
and would go to the Big twelve championship game over
BYU over Utah. How does it? None of it makes sense.

(01:03:18):
None of it makes sense to me at all. I mean,
it's just insane to look at. This team is seven
and three, They are two and two against the spread.
Away from home, they are three and two. Sorry, excuse me.
Colorado is three and two and one against the spread
at home minus two point six. So neither team is
great when they're put in this situation. This is what

(01:03:41):
I'm talking about. Like, Arizona State has kind of hovered
in the seventies and PBA margin all year, now there
are number thirty in current strength of schedule. How this
team beat Texas Tech, I will never know. It makes
no sense to me, and yet do it to It
is what it is. They are Apparently Jordan Tyson is
going to be back this week or there's a chance

(01:04:02):
of that. And on top of that, like it's Sam
levit't still hurt. You didn't have a Jeff Simms game
at any point. I mean, this dude was the king
of the turnovers and yet he's done pretty good job
this year. They're number ten in interceptions thrown per pass attempt.

(01:04:23):
Even if they've tried to throw interceptions, it'd be hard
for Colorado to get them their number one oh five,
interceptions gained per pass attempt number seventy six, and fumbles
gained per rushing attempt defended. And Arizona State just doesn't
turn the ball over much number thirteen and giveaways per game.
Colorado was number one oh one in turnover marg and
overall Arizona State number thirty eight. Arizona State is number

(01:04:43):
one thirty five, and penalties per game Colorado number fifty seven.
As far as being able to finish drives, this Arizona
State offense number one oh six in finishing drives, but
there are number twenty in scoring opportunities per game. Colorado's
defense number ninety one in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
On the other side, Colorado fifty seventh then points per

(01:05:05):
scoring opportunity, but they are number one thirty one in
scoring opportunities per game. I you know, Arizona State is
number seventy seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity, but
there are number forty four in defensive red zone touchdown rate,
so they can defend like they can keep you out
of the end zone onant you get down there. Five

(01:05:28):
factors rank this Arizona State team is number eighty three.
I mean, that's just just bonkers to look at. I
look at this and I am perplexed because, yeah, Arizona
State's going on the road, and yeah, all of these

(01:05:48):
numbers are lower. The projected stat spread has Arizona State
minus four point one six. My power rating has Arizona
State a little less than five. Last four weeks Arizona
State minus seventeen point seven to seven. Dillingham has figured
out how to use Jeff Simms, and that should terrify everybody.
I mean, this is Arizona State's defense is really good.

(01:06:10):
They're number fourteen and have it created in Colorado's offense
is number one thirty one and have it allowed even
at home. There's a chance that Arizona State just boat
races this bunch. So with this thing being you know,
it went from eight and a half down to six
and a half, like it's moving the opposite direction, I'm

(01:06:31):
gonna trust Arizona State here. They've got a legit chance
to go play for the Big twelve title again, so
I don't think you're gonna catch them sleepwalking anything like that.
Even with this being like a back twelve after dark game,
I still believe that Arizona State is gonna get this done.
So I will take another favorite that's terrifying. Give me

(01:06:54):
Arizona State minus six and a half there. And then finally,
our last game of the week, at least the one
that we are going to cover, Utah State heads two
Fresno State nine thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone
on CBS Sports Network. Fresno is a two and a

(01:07:15):
half to three point favorite, depending on the book. Total
is fifty and a half to fifty one and a
half depending on the book. Utah State. This is strength
on strength, weakness on weakness, right, Utah State number forty
two and PPA per drive on offense. Fresno is number
forty eight on defense, Fresne's offense number one oh seven,
and PBA per drive on offense Utah State's defense number

(01:07:39):
one oh three. Who breaks first? That's the question here.
My stats projected spread has Fresno by three point seven.
Power rating has Fresno by three point three. Last four
weeks has Fresno by three point seventy five. But look
at the strength of scheduling, Utah State number sixty three,

(01:07:59):
nonumber one fifteen. You look at five factors, number seventy
and number seventy one. You look at I mean, both
of these teams cover in this spot. Utah State is
minus three point six, but they are three and two.
Fresno is three and two and they are plus five
point three. Bronco Mendenhall, needing a win to get to

(01:08:23):
a bowl game, almost got it at UNLV last week.
Now they're on the road against Fresno and a Fresno
team that cannot score, but a Fresno team that plays
pretty good defense. Fresno is already Bowl eligible I'm curious
about this passing attack for Utah State, what they're going

(01:08:43):
to look like against Fresne's defense. Points for scoring opportunity,
Utah State is number eight, Fresno's defense is number seventy three.
Both of these, by the way, number ninety eight, number
one ten in special teams efficiencies are not good. There.
Turnover march in Utah State is number twenty seven, Fresno

(01:09:05):
number sixty two. Fresno turns the ball over a lot,
a lot penalties per game. They're both outside the top
eighty five. Utah stag is number one, twenty one Forresne
eighty eight. And this defense for Utah State is rough.
But man, that Fresne offense just doesn't appear that they
can do a whole lot of anything. There are number

(01:09:27):
seventy six in points per game, twenty five point nine
points per game. This has the feel of Broncos, big
bad boys getting it done. So the fact that I've
got a three at this point, I know that all
of my numbers have Fresno by a little over three.

(01:09:50):
I trust that Utah State offense to be able to
score on Fresno, even with as bad as Utah States
defenses I don't necessarcessarily feel the same about Fresno's offense,
and the turnover variants could certainly go Utah State's way.
I'm gonna take the Aggies. Give me Bronco Minen Hall.

(01:10:13):
I trust him more as the coach in this situation.
I think Utah State gets done, so I will take
the three there. Utah State plus three on the road.
All right, let's recap it here. We got nineteen of them.
Rutgers plus thirty one and a half. Excuse me, Miami
plus No minus seventeen and a half. Boy, I didn't

(01:10:36):
write very well. Dida Miami minus seventeen and a half,
Northwestern minus three and a half, Kansas plus four and
a half, James Madison minus thirteen and a half, Arizona
minus six and a half, South Florida minus twenty one
and a half, Iowa minus sixteen and a half, Duke
minus six and a half, Utsa plus two and a half,
Temple plus eight and a half, Utah minus seventeen and
a half, Maryland plus fourteen, Penn State minus nine and

(01:10:59):
a half, Illinois minus seven and a half, Cow minus three,
North Texas minus eighteen and a half, Arizona State minus
six and a half in Utah State plus three. That
does not feel good. I will tell you that that's
a lot of favorites, a whole lot of favorites. But
I mean, we're talking about bad football teams here, So

(01:11:22):
if we're betting on good football teams against bad football teams,
I don't feel so bad about that, d'aal. Let me
know in the comments, tell me what you think. All right,
let's go wrap things up. It's almost midnight. I still
gotta edit this thing. We got one more week of
the regular season after this, and that is going to

(01:11:44):
wrap it up. Take care of yourself. No no, no good
at betting CFB dot com. Subscribe to the channel, like
the video and jump of the comments. I would certainly
appreciate that. With that said, take care of yourself, take
care of each other. God bless college football and hopefully
all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening

(01:12:06):
to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment
follow Edgary WCEE on X and check out the web store.

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