Week 14 2025 College Football Picks for Big Early Games!

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's Week fourteen. We're only doing two videos this week.
We're gonna start with the Friday games and then we're
going to move into the early Saturday games.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
On this one.

Speaker 3 (00:09):
Hey, what's up y'all? Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair my favorite
thing about the holidays, decking out my whole house. It's
not a competition, but if it was, well, I'd win
the season with Wayfair outdoor inflatable Santa got it on.
Wayfair trees, lights and ornaments, Wayfair posting must haves like
dining sets, beds, sheets and towels. Wayfair for everything in
your style, delivered with fast and free shipping. Visit Wayfair

(00:32):
dot Com or the Wayfair app to win the season.
But again, it's not a competition.

Speaker 4 (00:36):
Wayfair, Every style, every home.

Speaker 5 (00:39):
Some say it's the look of wonder on the children's faces.
Some say it's catching up with old friends, while others
say it's family gathering around the table and do you
know what, They're right. It's all of this and more
that makes Christmas. Along with plenty of Avonmore cream are
fresh cream, including seasonal flavors, perfect for the festivities. Don't

(01:04):
forget the Aven Moore cream, The cream dot makes.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Christmas Welcome In Winning Cures Everything, it's a college football podcast.
I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCE on all
the different socials, most active on X obviously, and if
you're old school, you can still reach out to me
Gary at Winning Cures Everything dot Com or honestly, best

(01:29):
way to reach me, let me a message over at
buy me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. You
can be a member there five bucks a month, fifty
bucks for the year.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
And all of these.

Speaker 1 (01:37):
Spreadsheets, stat sheets, et cetera. I get those put out
over there every Sunday or Monday. This time I had
them on Sunday, so they were ready for you. But yeah,
you can reach out to me over there, and I'm
ready for conference championship games, playoffs, bowl games, et cetera.
We're gonna be doing this thing all the way through
the end of January, and even then we'll start more

(02:00):
moving on towards the next season and we'll be talking
about all the crazy stuff going on. You get some
bonus podcasts over there in the offseason. You get all
kind of stuff over there, So become a member. Help
me out. Five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year.
Let me go on a TV overall record thus far,
big games on the season. I am fifty nine sixty
and one the other games that I do and one

(02:24):
thirty one. That gives us an overall against the spread
record of one ninety nine, one ninety one and one.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
That's right.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
We will have picked over four hundred games this year
and we're trying to go against the spread on every
one of them. And it's a lot. But I'm feeling
pretty good about the record being around five hundred, considering
these are not my favorite games, right, these are not
my best bets, these are not whatever, and it's not
like I've been great on my best bets. But but yeah,

(02:55):
I'm feeling pretty good about it. So let's not waste
a bunch of time. I got twelve games to hit today.
We're doing the Friday slate and some of early Saturday,
and then tomorrow's show.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
We will have the rest of Saturday.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
So let's jump into it. Game number one. We start
on Friday, eleven am Central Time, and good gracious, Iowa
going to Nebraska. This one on CBS, and of course
you see it on your screen here. Iowa is favored
by five and a half spread is thirty eight and

(03:31):
a half to thirty nine and a half, and so
it's gone up a little bit from that thirty eight
and a half at some books. So let's take a
look at what we got here, and we're gonna try
and be quick on some of these. Iowa minus four
and a half is the projected stats spread.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
The power Rating has Iowa minus five and a half.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
The last four weeks would have Iowa minus twenty three
point three. Nebraska got smoked by Penn State, absolutely demolished
by them. And you know, they've only had two games
really where they've had a different starting quarterback, mixed returns.
Didn't look so great against Penn State at all. But

(04:10):
at UCLA, you know they were able to put up
some points there and got a good win. So right
now in Nebraska's sitting at seven and four on the season.
They are three two and one at home against the spread,
Iowa three oh and one against the spread on the
road plus ten point four. Nebraska's plus five point four,
so Iowa plays a little bit better away from home. Surprisingly,

(04:33):
let's start with Iowa being on offense. They are number
eighty six in ppapri Drive at number fifty five in
offensive success rate. Terrible throwing the football, but they are
really good at running the football, and that is bad
for Nebraska because Iowa number thirteen.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
In rush rate.

Speaker 1 (04:50):
They run the ball almost sixty percent of the time.
They are number twenty in rushing success rate. Nebraska's defense
number one oh seven, Iowa number ten in offensive lineyards
Nebraska number one oh eight eight Iowa number ten and
stuff rate allowed.

Speaker 2 (05:03):
Nebraska number one oh two in stuff rate. So Iowa is.

Speaker 1 (05:06):
Going to run the football and I think they're going
to be successful. They're number thirty one in points per
scoring opportunity that's when you get a first down inside
the opponent forty. Nebraska's defense is number ninety eight, so
they give up a lot of points. They are number
one twenty eight in defensive red zone touchdown rate. Iowa
was number thirty one an offensive red zone touchdown rate,
So when they are down there, most likely they're going

(05:27):
to put it in. On the other side of the
ball Nebraska is And these numbers don't necessarily mean the
same thing because they don't have Dylan Rayola. But they're
not great at running the football. They're okay, though, they're
serviceable number twenty nine in offensive line yards number fourteen,
and stuff rate well, Iowas defense number thirty eight, number
forty six in those metrics, but Nebraska is only number

(05:48):
sixty eight in PPA per rush that's predicted points added
per rush. Iowa's defense is number twenty eight. Nebraska number
ninety three in yards per rush, Iowa's defense number seventeen.
Can Nebraska get some kind of a passing game going,
I'm not totally certain, and even then, Iowa's defense is
still really good against that. As far as finishing drives,

(06:09):
Nebraska number fifty five and points per scoring opportunity, Iowa
was number thirty two. As far as five factors rank,
Nebraska is down at number thirty one in raw five factors,
Iowa is number sixteen. I get the feeling now. We
saw this last week. Iowa found a way to come
back and win that game against Michigan State, but they

(06:32):
played tight. Both of these teams are seven and four.
I think Iowa is certainly going to win the game.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
They seem to.

Speaker 1 (06:40):
Always win the game against Nebraska, and if you look
at the last four weeks, Iowa playing significantly better lately
than Nebraska, which makes all the sense in the world.
Considering Nebraska lost their quarterback, You've got an inexperienced quarterback
going up against this Iowa defense. The five and a
half feels like a lot, but when you look at

(07:00):
how they've been playing as of late, I'm gonna side
with Iowa on this one. Give me the Hawkeyes minus
four or sorry, minus five and a half. Eleven am
Central Time, God's Time Zone on ABC. Ole Miss going
to Mississippi State, and boy, there is so much stuff
going on around this one, right Lane Kiffin, who knows

(07:23):
what in the world he's gonna do. We'll see. Is
his team focused on this game. I think that's the
biggest thing, which is why this number right now is
Ole Miss minus seven to seven and a half. Right,
depends on the book, but there are some sevens out
there total of sixty three and a half. I believe

(07:46):
that there are other things going on. It just feels like,
and I don't like to get into a bunch of
coaching stuff and whatnot.

Speaker 2 (07:52):
But it feels like.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Maybe there's maybe all this smoke is just kind of
a ruse, right Like, it just feels weird that all
this is done out in the public.

Speaker 2 (08:07):
Maybe I'm maybe I'm crazy. I don't know.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
I tend to believe that he's either not going anywhere
and he'll stay at ole Miss, or he's going somewhere
that's not LSU or Florida. Like it just it feels crazy. Anyway,
Let's talk about the numbers. My projected stat spread has
Almoss minus ten point eight four, so almost eleven points.
My power rating has ole Miss minus seven point seven,
and then my last four weeks has ole Miss minus

(08:35):
almost thirty points, so minus twenty eight point nine to eight.
And the reason for that, even if Lane Kiffin is leaving,
even if ole Miss is distracted or whatever, the team
is distracted. Ole Miss's special teams is number two. States
is number twenty nine, so they're both inside the top thirty.

(08:56):
But the biggest mismatch in this game is when ole
Miss is on offense. They can run the ball. They
are number twenty five in rushing success rate, number thirty five.

Speaker 2 (09:04):
In PPA per rush.

Speaker 1 (09:06):
Mississippi State's defense is number one twenty eight and number
one oh seven in those metrics. Lacey, I think can
run rough shot over this bunch. Amad Hardy from Missouri
ran for almost three hundred yards on this Mississippi State defense.
I kind of think we got the same situation going here,
both teams outside the top seventy five. As far as

(09:27):
penalties per game turnover margin. Ole Miss better at not
giving the ball away. They're number forty three and giveaways
per game, but they don't generate turnovers. They are number
one sixteen in takeaways per game. Turnover margin for Mississippi
State number forty one, but they're number sixty nine and
giveaways per game, but thirty four in takeaways per game.

(09:48):
So if turnovers play any part in this, I would
expect State to be taking over some of those. If
you look at State at home, they are five and
one against the spread at home. Oll Miss one and
two against the spread the road, but they are plus
three point eight. Mississippi State is plus four point two
the last time that State played at home, though they
got demolished by a Georgia team that ole Miss hung

(10:10):
with for the entire ballgame. Looking at who can finish drives,
Ole Miss number eight in points for scoring opportunity, so
they know how to finish once they get inside the
red zone or once they get inside the opponent forty.
Really Missisippi State's defense is number sixty seven there. On
the other side, when State's on offense, they are number
seventeen in points for scoring opportunity. Ole Miss is number

(10:34):
sixteen on defense. A lot of bend but don't break
stuff going on here. I think seven is too little.
I understand all the distraction talk. I understand all of that,
which is why people are betting on this. People root
for chaos. Typically I do the same thing in this situation, though,

(10:55):
I don't think it's that big of a distraction, and
I think that Old Miss has a big time advantage
with being able to run the football. I think Mississippi
State is on fumes. I will take Ole Miss and
I will take that seven. So give me the Rebels
minus seven. Here eleven am Central Time on ESPN. Utah
is heading two Kansas for the utes finale. Saved themselves

(11:18):
in the playoff race again this past week, and Kansas
is still if I'm not mistaken, yes, five and six.
They are looking for a bowl game. Kansas at home.
I really thought that having this new stadium, all the
renovations done, all that kind of stuff would really help
them out this year. But they are two and four
against the spread at home minus three point six. Utah

(11:41):
on the road away from Salt Lake City four and
one against the spread plus eleven point five. This team
is fantastic, absolutely fantastic. Should have beaten BYU the quarterback
was heard, etc. Against Texas Tech. That's not an excuse.
They got their brains beat in in the second half.

Speaker 2 (11:57):
Of that game.

Speaker 1 (11:58):
But uh yeah, Utah is a really good football team.
Number seven in PPA margin. Kansas is number seventy six.
Just wild, wild to think about. Utah is a thirteen
and a half point road favorite. Total of fifty nine
and a half to sixty and a half depending on
the book. I have got Utah minus twelve point four
to nine, so one point below the expected. My power

(12:20):
rating only has Utah minus seven point eight, but my
last four weeks Utah minus eighteen point seven. So Utah
playing significantly better as of late and overall in the season. Yeah,
playing much better. Kansas four and six against the spread overall,
Like I said, two and four on the road, they
are two and two against the spread. Sorry, away from home,

(12:42):
they are two and four at home minus three point six.
Let's talk about offense versus defense. Kansas number thirty in
points per scoring opportunity well, Utah's defense is number seventeen.
The difference here is that Kansas doesn't get down there
very often number seventy eight. As far as drives getting
a first down inside of the opponent forty, Utah number

(13:03):
fifty four in scoring opportunities.

Speaker 2 (13:06):
Allowed per game.

Speaker 1 (13:07):
And Kansas might be able to run the football a
little bit on Utah, and if they do, it's going
to be some explosive runs. Number number forty four in
rushing explosiveness Utah number one twenty nine and rushing explosiveness allowed,
and Kansas State.

Speaker 2 (13:22):
Took advantage of that last week.

Speaker 1 (13:24):
I would imagine that Kansas will certainly be able to
find a way to do that somewhat in this game.
As far as throwing the football, I would highly recommend
that they not try that a whole lot on this
Utah defense. But we'll see. We'll see on the other side.
When Utah has the football, there are number one in

(13:44):
PPA per rush. Kansas's defense is number eighty four. They
are number eight in passing success rate. Kansas's defense is
number seventy three, number thirty nine in PPA per pass
Kansas's defense number one fifteen. There's some major advantage zero four.
Utah number two in offensive lineyards, Kansas number sixty seven.
On defense, they are number seven in stuff rate allowed.

(14:06):
Kansas's defense is.

Speaker 2 (14:08):
Number forty five.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
There, you saw number two in points per scoring opportunity,
the Kansas defense number one twenty five. You saw number
fourteen in five factors rank Kansas number forty two. And
this is another one of those spots where Utah is
gonna have to win the game, hope for some chaos
to be able to get into the Big twelve title game.

(14:29):
It's probably not gonna happen. So if you want to
be the second team that gets in from the Big twelve,
or even the third team, you're gonna have to cheer for.

Speaker 2 (14:38):
Chaos everywhere else.

Speaker 1 (14:39):
And you gotta look really good here because the win
over Kansas State, while it was a win, it was
not all that impressive. So you need to win big here.
This number at thirteen and a half, I mean, that's
a crazy high number, but I mean my stats I
show a clear advantage with Utah running the football, and

(15:00):
I think that their defense is going to be able
to slow down Kansas. So I think that Utah just
kind of lays it on here. I know it's on
the road. I get that, but this is not exactly
a rivalry. And Kansas, I'm sure, is trying to get
ready to go to a bowl game, but they've had
plenty of opportunities to get to a bowl game, to

(15:21):
get to that sixth win, and they haven't done it
as of yet. So Utah the significant, significantly better overall team,
and they've been playing a lot better as of late,
aside from last week where they give up four thousand
rushing yard. But I will take Kansas or I will
take Utah here minus thirteen and a half. I think
they're just the significantly better football team. Two thirty pm

(15:44):
Central Time on ABC still on Friday, Georgia and Georgia
Tech clean old fashioned hate.

Speaker 2 (15:53):
Man.

Speaker 1 (15:54):
Georgia Tech really late a dud against Pitt last week.
Georgia is a twelve and a half to thirteen point
favorite on the book total of fifty nine and a
half on this one, and this one will be inside
Mercedes been Stadium, so I would imagine there's gonna be
significantly more Georgia fans, even though they might be in
Atlanta the next week as well. Obviously, we'll see if

(16:14):
Auburn can pull the upset on Alabama or Texas upsets
Texas A and M.

Speaker 2 (16:20):
Either way.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
Either way, my stats projected spread twelve and a half.
My power rating Georgia twelve point nine. The last four
weeks Georgia minus thirty two. Georgia has been steamrolling people
the last couple of weeks. The defense has improved significantly.
They are looking really good, really really good. Georgia Tech

(16:45):
number fifteen in PPA per pass, number twenty nine in
PPA per rush. But Georgia Tech has played the number
eighty one current strength of schedule, Georgia the number sixteen
at current strength of schedule who Georgia's defense number forty
one in PPA allowed for driving, it was significantly worse,
just like three games ago.

Speaker 2 (17:02):
Four games ago.

Speaker 1 (17:04):
They have gotten way way better, number twenty four in
defensive success rate. They're number fourteen against the run, still
number fifty six against the pass. So if Georgia Tech
is going to attack them, it seems like it would
be through the pass, although they don't do it that much,
less than forty five percent of the time, so that's
number ninety five in pass rate, but there are number
ten in passing success number ten and passing explosiveness number

(17:26):
nine in HAVOC allowed, Georgia still can't get after the quarterback.
They're number ninety six and HAVOC that would be the
way that Georgia Tech would get after him, right Buster
Faulkner has, yeah, you know, he's got some tricks up
a sleeve for this one. And Georgia Tech has certainly
been very lucky with blocked punts, with interceptions at the

(17:50):
right time, with other coaches making bone headed decisions, all
that kind of stuff. Because their defense is atrocious, number
one hundred in PPA allowed, drive, number one oh one
in defensive success rate allowed. They're number one oh eight
in passing success allowed. And it's not that Georgia throws
the ball a lot, it's less than forty four percent
of the time. But they're number twenty seven in QBR

(18:14):
number thirty and PPA per pass Georgia Tech number one
oh two and number ninety five in those metrics. Georgia
is running the ball a lot more than fifty five
percent of the time. They are number twenty three in
rushing success rate. Georgia Tech's defense number seventy six. When
it comes to offensive line yards, Georgia number forty two

(18:34):
and Georgia Tech is number ninety. Let's look at who
finishes drives. Georgia Tech number sixty two. In points for
scoring opportunity, Georgia is number one hundred. Georgia not great
as far as stopping people from scoring once they get
down there.

Speaker 2 (18:49):
The issue is can you get down there?

Speaker 1 (18:51):
Because Georgia number thirteen in scoring opportunities allowed per game.

Speaker 2 (18:54):
That is, when the opponent gets.

Speaker 1 (18:56):
A first or a first down inside the forty yard line,
they just don't.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Allow it very often.

Speaker 1 (19:02):
On the other side, Georgia number six in points for
scoring opportunity. Georgia Tech's defense number fifty eight, So you
know you look at offensive red zone conversion percentage, Georgia
is number two in offensive red zone touchdown rate, Georgia
Tech's defense number sixty five. On the other side, Georgia Tech,
they're number seven in offensive red zone conversion percentage, but

(19:25):
they're number eighty four in red zone touchdown rate, which
would explain why they are number thirteen. In special team deficiency,
Georgia is number one in special teams efficiency, but Georgia's
defense number fifty six in red zone touchdown rate allowed.
Five factors rank Georgia's number twenty four, Georgia Tech number
thirty five. When you do five factors plus talent, Georgia

(19:47):
Tech drops to number forty six. Georgia is up to
number five, Georgia number two in overall talent rank, Georgia
Tech number thirty nine. There is a massive difference. I
don't think you're going to see a game like we
did last year in Athens.

Speaker 2 (20:03):
I think it's I think it's a.

Speaker 1 (20:04):
Lot different this go round. Georgia is clicking at the
exact right time. This is not a team that you
want to play right now, especially if you're Georgia Tech,
because last week you lost the opportunity really to go
to the a SEC Championship game. You probably lost your
shot at the playoff. And now Georgia is just rolling
and they're probably looking for a bit of revenge, even

(20:26):
though they won that game last year.

Speaker 2 (20:29):
I get the.

Speaker 1 (20:29):
Feeling that they are mad about the way that thing
went and they want to leave no questions this time
none again. Last four weeks, Georgia would be favored by
thirty two points if you just took the stats from
the last four weeks. Georgia Tech is falling off at
the wrong time. Georgia is clicking at the right time.
I will take Georgia minus twelve and a half. Anything

(20:50):
under two touchdowns I feel great about. I don't expect
us to see a bunch of turnovers from Georgia, so
I will I will side with the bulldogs twelve and
a half. Are you tired of sore knees or joints
slowing you down? Ghost Leaves uses built in kinesiology tape
technology to give you support, reduce pain, and help you

(21:11):
recover faster. Use codewcee for fifteen percent off over at
ghost leaves dot com.

Speaker 3 (21:17):
Hey, what's up y'all? Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair my favorite
thing about the holidays, decking out my whole house. It's
not a competition, but if it was, well I'd win
the season with Wayfair outdoor, inflatable Santa got it on
Wayfair trees, lights and ornaments, Wayfair posting must haves like
dining sets, beds, sheets and towels. Wayfair for everything in
your style, delivered with fast and free shipping. Visit Wayfair

(21:40):
dot com or the Wayfair app to win the season.

Speaker 6 (21:42):
But again, it's not a competition.

Speaker 4 (21:44):
Wayfair every style every home for the twelve.

Speaker 7 (21:47):
Days off Christmas. Yourros far had for me twelve Christmas budding,
eleven cakes at baking, ten summon smoking, nine Christmas crackers,
eight lovely.

Speaker 5 (21:59):
Cheeses, seven sheets of wrappings, six stucking fillers, five miss
bones for Christmas case, three Brussels rouse, two turkey legs
and Christmas Mate super.

Speaker 8 (22:12):
Easy as far You're super Easy Supermarket. Are you applying
for a first time passport or renewing one, whether it's
for you or your child. The fastest and easiest way
to do it is online at ireland dot ie ford
slash Passports, and if you find applying online challenging, the

(22:33):
Passport Assist team is here to help. Call Passport Assist
on zero one six one three one seven ninety five
and talk to someone who can support you. Brought to
you by the Government of Ireland.

Speaker 1 (22:48):
If you haven't already subscribed to the channel like the video,
make sure and jump in the comments and give me
your picks on these games along with any other game
that you like this week. I would like to hear
from you and give me some reasoning behind it. But
I would love to hear from you. Go ahead and
leave some comments and subscribe.

Speaker 2 (23:04):
It's free. Help me out.

Speaker 1 (23:06):
Friday, six thirty pm Central Time, God's Time Zone on
NBC the Indiana Hoosiers number two in the country. They
travel to Purdue. That's right, rivalry game going on here
and right now. Indiana favored by twenty eight and a
half with a total of fifty four to fifty four
and a half. Indiana dealing with some injuries and whatnot,

(23:28):
trying to get healed up, all that good stuff as
they head into if they win this, the Big Ten
title game, and they will be undefeated if they win this.
Going into that game, they got some bigger fish to
fry than just Purdue. Now I understand rivalry games and whatnot,
but this seems like a whole lot of points. Favored
by twenty eight and a half total of fifty three

(23:50):
and a half on this Sorry, it's up to fifty
four to fifty four and a half. It opened to
fifty three and a half, but it's going.

Speaker 2 (23:55):
Up a little bit.

Speaker 1 (23:56):
Projected stat spread has Indiana minus twenty six point one six.
My power rating has Indiana by a little less than
twenty Over the last four weeks. It would have Indiana
by twenty four Purdue this year three and three against
the spread at home, Indiana two and two against the
spread away from home since twenty twenty four. Indiana five

(24:17):
and four on the road, and Purdue not great last
year obviously they were freaking terrible four and eight against
the spread at home since last season. But right now,
three and three so far this year at home, Purdue
is not going to make a Bowl two and it

(24:37):
says two and nine. Yeah, it is two and nine. Sorry,
couldn't do math them ahead there. There's not a single
number that you can come up with that would make
sense to take Purdue here. Perdue number one, twenty one
in PBA margin, Indiana number three, Indiana's number twenty seven,
and special students efficiency, Purdue is number six.

Speaker 2 (24:59):
Found that interesting When you.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
Look at five factors or five factors plus talent, Purdue
is number one oh two and raw five factors, but
they are number fifty six when you do five factors
plus talent, so they start moving up above a bunch
of those teams that are just not quite as talented
as they are. Indiana number two and five factors rank,
but they dropped to number seventeen in five factors plus

(25:22):
talent because they are only number forty six and overall
talent rank, this is still an incredibly and that five
factors is.

Speaker 2 (25:29):
Not the end all be all.

Speaker 1 (25:30):
Don't get me wrong, Indiana is an insanely good football team.
The issue here is you're going into potentially Indianapolis. You
just want to get out of here with a win.
You're on the road, Barry Odom, that bunch has nothing
else to play for other than to ruin your season.
You don't want to get anybody hurt. You gotta play

(25:53):
different in a game like this. Indiana's number one in
turnover margin. Purdue is number one twenty eight. Explosiveness, Dana
number four, Purdue number one twenty six.

Speaker 2 (26:03):
Is that right?

Speaker 1 (26:04):
You have one to twenty six in net explosiveness. There's
there's just not a lot here that you can point
to Purdue on. But that's the direction that I'm going.
And it's because as much as Signetti does not take
his foot off the gas like this feels like Indiana
first half play and then after that rest some guys,

(26:29):
you know, don't don't get anybody hurt, don't do anything crazy,
just go out and win the game and get to Indianapolis.
So that you've got a shot against Ohio State, and yes,
Indiana could absolutely.

Speaker 2 (26:43):
Win the Big Ten.

Speaker 1 (26:43):
I think it's a much bigger chance to win the
Big Ten than I think it is to win the
National championship. Obviously they would like to do both, but
this game is minor. Even though it's a rivalry game,
This is minor in the grand scheme of things. You
got to be smart here. I think signetti is twenty
eight and a half is a lot of points in

(27:06):
Indiana is not their.

Speaker 2 (27:08):
Best selves when they're on the road.

Speaker 1 (27:10):
So in this situation, because Perdue, I think will pull
out all the tricks and whatnot, and I think Indiana
keeps a lot close to the vest because they got
a lot more to play for. Purdue plus twenty eight
and a half is the way that we are going
On this one, six thirty pm Central time Guide time
zone on In or sorry ABC. On this one, Texas,
A and M goes to Austin to take on the Longhorns.

Speaker 2 (27:35):
Good gracious.

Speaker 1 (27:37):
A and M favored by two and a half on
the road total of fifty one and a half on
this and I gotta tell you I'm conflicted in this.
A and M has found a way to win every
single game. That's right, eleven and zero. They are three

(28:00):
and one against the spread away from home, Texas only
two two to one against the spread at home minus
one point two, A and M on the road plus
nine point eight. But A and M is five and
five against the spread overall this season, Texas is only
two and seven. Found that interesting, Texas number three and
overall talent rank A and M is number ten. This

(28:23):
game means a lot, and not just for playoffs, not
just for the SEC whatever, but just in state bragging
rights right Texas number fifty six and special teams efficiency
an M number eighty one, turnover margin A and M
number one oh nine, Texas is number ten in this

(28:44):
A and M number sixty nine, and giveaways per game
Texas number twenty seven and takeaways Texas number seven. And
giveaways per game A and M number one sixteen. So
A and M has not been living off of turnovers
off everybody else. Penalties per game Texas number one thirty four,
A M number one twenty one, So we could see
a lot of flags flying in this. Let's start with

(29:04):
Texas on offense. They cannot run the football like at all.
Number ninety six offensive line yards, number one twenty one
in PPA per rush. A and M's defense is number
eighty seven in PPA allowed per rush, but they are
number fourteen in offensive line yards allowed, so they don't
get bullied, they don't get pushed around. They're number eight
in rushing success allowed.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (29:23):
The issue is that there are number one oh four
in rushing explosiveness allowed. They allow a lot of explosives.
They're number eighty five in defensive explosiveness allowed, but Texas
is not exactly explosive. Now, they did show some stuff
against Arkansas. We'll see if that carries over. But you know,
Texas has been playing a little bit better as of late,

(29:45):
I would say, aside from the Georgia game. But I
don't know if A and M is on the level
of Georgia. I know they're undefeated.

Speaker 2 (29:54):
I get that, but.

Speaker 1 (29:57):
I'm not totally certain, not totally certain on this. If
you try and pass the football, A and M is
pretty good against the past, number eight in passing success allowed.
They are number forty in QBR allowed. Let's look at
points per scoring opportunity. Texas on offense number one oh five,

(30:20):
A and M's defense number one oh four and A
and M number one thirty in defensive red zone conversion percentage.
They are number sixty five and defensive red zone touchdown rate.
Texas number sixty four an offensive zone touchdown rate, so
they are getting better compared to normal Sark offenses. I

(30:40):
would say Texas number fifty and five factors rank, but
you tossed in the talent, they are number nine and
five factors plus talent. A and M is number eleven
in five factors rank and number four in five factors
plus talent. So you got two really close teams, and
you would think Texas at home on a Friday night,
Black Friday, they really want this one. A and M

(31:03):
on offense not a great passing attack. They are explosive,
number eleven in passing explosiveness, number sixty five for Texas's defense,
but A and M number ninety three and passing success
rate completion percentage isn't great, but they do find ways
to score and they hit really big plays with this.
If you look at the Texas defense, A and M

(31:26):
is not going to be able to run the football
to the same level that they typically do. They're number
thirty seven in rush rate, so they run the ball
almost fifty five.

Speaker 2 (31:33):
Percent of the time.

Speaker 1 (31:34):
Texas is number seven in yards allowed per rush, number
twenty two in rushing success allowed, number twenty six, and
rushing explosiveness, number ten in offensive line yards allowed. If
you're going to score on Texas, you gotta do it
a different way. So we're going to see Marcel Reid
throw the football some in this one. A and M
number twenty five in points per scoring opportunity. The Texas

(31:55):
defense is number ninety one in points allowed for scoring opportunity.
They're number one of in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed,
but there are number sixteen in scoring opportunities per game,
so you better take advantage of the ones that you
get down there. We'll see, we'll see what happens. I

(32:15):
think we are well overdue for some chaos. I don't
know what's going to happen here, but I think two
and a half might be too much.

Speaker 2 (32:24):
I know that A and M.

Speaker 1 (32:25):
IT shows has been playing better as of late, and
I think that that Texas game is really weigh or sorry,
the Georgia game is really weighing on Texas.

Speaker 2 (32:33):
I'm going with the upset.

Speaker 1 (32:35):
I think Sark and the boys have got some stuff
drawn up here, and it just makes all the sense
in the world for A and M to finally lose
a game. You don't go from eight to four to
completely undefeated, right, Maybe I'm wrong. I mean A and
M has been the better football team all season. But
you know, number twenty three in current strength of schedule

(32:58):
and Texas is number ten in current strength of schedule.
Texas is as goofy as it looks from the beginning
of the season. A and M has played a significantly
easier conference schedule, and they caught Notre Dame at the
right time. Texas had to play Ohio State and Georgia
and etcetera, et cetera. I think Texas can get this done,

(33:19):
so I will go with the Longhorns plus two and
a half. Staying on Friday, eight pm Central Time on Fox,
Arizona goes to Arizona State. Arizona right now favored by
one to one and a half total of forty eight
and a half to forty nine and a half on
this one, and Arizona favored in this spot. This is

(33:40):
a massive rivalry game, and Arizona has not been good
enough to hang in this one, at least well last year.
We'll say that because Arizona State really really didn't get
good until last season.

Speaker 2 (33:53):
But Dillingham.

Speaker 1 (33:56):
They need BYU to lose, and if they win this,
they're going to the Big twelve title game again. Even
with the backup quarterback. I mean, it's wild, even with
missing Jordan Tyson for multiple games this year. It's crazy
considering their numbers have not been good really all season.
They're not great on offense, number seventy four in PPA
per drive. On offense, they're number one oh three in

(34:17):
offensive success rate. They cannot throw the football number one
oh five. In passing success they're number eighty six and
PPA per pass number ninety five and yards per pass
attempt number one oh five and passing success rate number
one o one and havoc allowed. Arizona's defense gets after
you throw in the football. But luckily for Arizona State,
the weakness for Arizona's defense is against the run number
ninety nine and rushing success rate Arizona State is number

(34:40):
fifty five.

Speaker 2 (34:40):
There.

Speaker 1 (34:42):
This is interesting, right, Arizona State number thirty one in
yards per rush, Arizona number fifty six. There's a big
difference here between the current strength of schedules, right, Arizona
State is inside the top forty. Arizona is number sixty three.
So while no Afia in company have been doing okay,

(35:02):
that defense has really been the biggest thing. Danny Gonzalez
is one a fantastic job revamping that Bearcats defense or
Wildcats defense, not Bearcats. What the hell am I talking
about anyway? My apologies to the Arizona offense. Of course,
Arizona State number one oh one in points per scoring opportunity.

(35:23):
Arizona's defense is number fifty so as far as finishing drives,
Arizona State obviously not great at it. On the other
side of the ball, Arizona's offense number seventy two. In
points per scoring opportunity, Arizona State is number fifty three.
Arizona State's defense has been the saving grace all year.
Number forty six PPA allowed per rush, number thirty seven

(35:44):
PPA allowed per pass. They should be able to slow
down this Arizona attack. Turnover margin Arizona number five, Arizona
State a number sixty eight.

Speaker 2 (35:58):
We'll see what that ends up looking like.

Speaker 1 (36:00):
Both teams special teams are outside the top one ten
in efficiency.

Speaker 2 (36:05):
That is insane.

Speaker 1 (36:06):
Arizona State number fifty one. And overall talent, Arizona number
sixty one. Both of these teams looking for their ninth
win of the season. Arizona State at home two three
and one against the spread, Arizona on the road two
and two against the spread plus three point nine. Arizona
State is minus three point eight. Five factors rank when
you toss in talent, let's do five factors plus talent
on this. Arizona State number forty eight, Arizona number thirty four.

(36:32):
Very interesting, very interesting, Arizona State. There's just been nothing
all year that has made you really believe in this
football team, and yet they continue to win games. And
I don't know how the hell they do it, but
they are just insanely clutch. I think that's the easiest

(36:52):
way to say. They're really really clutch. If you don't
have a passing attack that can hit explosives, which Arizona
is number number sixty three in passing explosiveness, you're gonna
get in trouble. Arizona number sixty three. In havoc allowed,
Arizona State is number ten. They are going to blitz,
they are going to bring people, and if your quarterback

(37:13):
is uncomfortable in that situation, it's gonna be a long day, just.

Speaker 2 (37:17):
Is so.

Speaker 1 (37:20):
I think that Arizona could get uncomfortable in that situation.
I don't think Arizona's ready for this. I think Arizona
State understands what is at play here, and it's Friday night,
so they won't know the results of other games and whatnot.

Speaker 2 (37:33):
It's early. They have to win. They're at home.

Speaker 1 (37:39):
Even though my numbers say that this line is correct,
I've got Arizona minus one point three to one and
projected stat spread my power rating has Arizona State by
point one, and my last four weeks has Arizona minus
four point three to nine. I think Jeff Simmson company,
I think they've run the football effectively, and I think
that the defense slows down Arizona. I think Arizona State
gets the win. So I will certainly take the best

(38:02):
number I can get right now is one Arizona State
plus one. Here we moved to Saturday, eleven am Central time,
of course God's time zone. On the SEC network. Clemson
goes to Columbia South Carolina. They're going to take on
the game Cocks, who are a two and a half
point home favorite total of forty six and a half
on this one, and it feels like a lot of

(38:25):
points for these two teams. Offense not exactly the strong
suit here, and you want to talk about a massive
strength to schedule difference. South Carolina number four in strength
to schedule, Clemson number seventy one right now, and they've
not been good against a pretty weak schedule. Now they
have played to where they are making a bowl. So

(38:48):
that's good. They are there now. They beat Louisville, They
got to bowl game. Is what it is there? Three
and one against the spread on the road this year,
South Carolina three and three against the spread at home.
Typically they are an underdog and they play so much
better in that role. South Carolina number ninety nine and
five factors rank. Clemson is number twenty three in five factors.

(39:11):
Interesting number here, five factors plus talent has South Carolina
number thirty three and Clemson thirty two, even though Clemson
has more talent. Got to figure out what's going on
with my algorithm with that, I'll dive into it.

Speaker 2 (39:24):
Regardless.

Speaker 1 (39:25):
That is not the thing you should be paying attention to.
Which you should be paying attention to is all of
the intangibles, all that Clemson number fifteen in penalties per game,
South Carolina number one twenty one. South Carolina number twenty
in turnover margin. They're number eleven in takeaways, Clemson number
seventy seven in turnover margin.

Speaker 2 (39:41):
Both of these.

Speaker 1 (39:42):
Teams inside the top forty as far as special teams efficiency.
Both are inside the top twenty as far as overall
talent rank. The coaching staffs have not exactly done either
of them a lot of favors. I will say South
Carolina doesn't really do anything well on offense. They have
gotten better as far as passing explosiveness, number forty nine

(40:05):
in passing explosiveness, and Nick Harbor is a big part
of that. Clemson is number eight in passing explosiveness allowed.
But even still on a down to down basis, South
Carolina number one thirteen in passing success, number one of
four in rushing success. The Clemson defense is pretty decent
at all of this. They're number fifty one in PPA
allowed for drive at number twenty two in success rate allowed.

(40:28):
South Carolina number one eighteen in offensive success rate. So
it's either explosive play, big play, or they don't move
the football. They're number one twenty nine points for scoring opportunity,
Clemson's defense is number fourteen. On the other side, just ridiculous.
This Clemson offense is supposed to be better. They're not

(40:50):
very good at running the football, and especially against the
South Carolina defense, you're not gonna be able to run it.
Number seventy four in PPA per rush the Gamecock defense
is number four, the game actual number nineteen. In offensive
line yards allowed number nine and stuff rate Clemson number
fifty five and seventy five.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
In those they run the ball less than.

Speaker 1 (41:09):
Forty five percent of the time, so they're going to
try and throw it with k club nick.

Speaker 2 (41:13):
They are number fifty in PPA.

Speaker 1 (41:14):
Per pass, South Carolina's number seventy five and PPA allowed
per pass number forty three. In QBR for Clemson number
forty nine and QBR allowed for South Carolina. Passing success rate.
South Carolina's pretty bad, actually fourteen, but they find a
way to stop it. So it is what it is.
Both teams number thirty six and points per scoring opportunity

(41:37):
South Carolina's defense thirty six, Clemson's offense number thirty six,
South Carolina number twelve in defensive red zone touchdown rate allowed.
Clemson's offense number seventy eight. The South Carolina offense when
they get in the red zone number ninety five in
red zone touchdown rate. Clemson's defense is number sixty five.

(41:57):
The difference in strength to schedule, et cetera. Is huge here,
but Clemson I feel like has been playing better as
of late, even though the numbers would not bear that
out projected stat spread. A lot of this has to
do with opponent adjustment. South Carolina minus one and a
half power rating has South Carolina minus two point three

(42:18):
last four weeks has South Carolina minus two point nine
to two, and yet I still feel like South Carolina
shoots themselves in the foot and they find ways to
lose games that they should win. This is a game
that I feel like they probably should win, and Clemson

(42:39):
has been playing better as of late. I think this
is a salvager season type of game, and amazingly I
trust Clemson more in that spot. So South Carolina being
favored by two and a half I think is incorrect
even with the difference in strength of schedule, et cetera. Clemson,

(43:00):
I think once this they want to salvage this season.
They want to go out on a high note. This
will be their seventh win. It looked for a little
while like they wouldn't even make a bowl game. I
think they get it done. I think they get it done.
So I will take those two and a half points,
give me the Clemson Tigers and Dabbo to find a

(43:20):
way to win this ball game. Why struggle doing everything yourself?
On fiver, you can hire professionals for just about anything, marketing, editing,
design and more.

Speaker 2 (43:30):
Save time.

Speaker 1 (43:31):
Get it done right click the link in the description
to get started.

Speaker 4 (43:35):
The black Tag event is now on it Curries. Get
the Sony PlayStation five Digital Edition now only three four
nine Save one hundred and fifty euro, or save sixty
euro on the Ninja Creamy Deloks ice cream and frozen
dessert Maker now two hundred and forty euro. Curries for
the tech you love at prices you lidor.

Speaker 9 (43:55):
This is the sound of a superpower we all have
sending Christmas cards to our family and friends and making
them feel loved.

Speaker 2 (44:05):
Who will you.

Speaker 9 (44:06):
Send magic to? Your auntie, your brother, You're bestie living abroad?
You can buy Christmas stamp buklets in your local post
office or online with free next day delivery. Ah Send
Christmas Love from the heart today on post send Love.

Speaker 10 (44:25):
I've been thinking we need to talk to him about it.

Speaker 6 (44:27):
He might not listen to me, but yeah, as good
a time as any.

Speaker 10 (44:31):
Okay, I'll give it a go.

Speaker 6 (44:33):
If he ever takes those earphones out.

Speaker 10 (44:37):
Vaping is harmful to your child's health. Nicotine addiction can
affect their concentration, sleep, and moods. They're much more likely
to smoke when they're older, too, So take a deep
breath and talk to them today. Get the facts about
vaping and nicotine visit HSE dot ie forward slash Vaping
from the HC.

Speaker 1 (44:56):
If you like these sheets, do me a favor and
go to buy me a com slash Winning Cures or
the easy url which is bettingcfb dot com. That is
the easiest one you can do. But sign up over
there five bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year,
and I keep things going even without the stat sheets,
right comparison, matchup tools, et cetera. We talk about plenty

(45:19):
of things in the offseason as well, and it's all
exclusive to members, so we have got a huge community
over there and easy way to reach out to me
as well. So buy me a coffee dot Com slash
winning Cures Game number eight, Saturday, eleven am Central Time
on the ACC Network. Kentucky is traveling to Louisville, and Man,

(45:40):
the Cardinals have fallen off in a big, big way
in the past few weeks. They are now seven and
four on the season. The Wildcats need this game to
get to Bowl eligibility. They've already hit the over on
the wind total. They are one and three against the
spread away from home. Louisville, however, oh and seven against
the spread at home this year just bananas to think about.

(46:04):
Jeff bram a company went to SMU last week and
I mean they got demolished thirty eight to six. I
mean it was it was a joke to say the
least projected stat spread. By the way, Louisville is favored
by three and a half on this total of forty
seven and a half. This is typically the game that
Mark Stoops and company finds a way to win, even
when they haven't been great elsewhere. Again, just like other

(46:28):
ACC games or sorry ACC SEC games, Kentucky number seven
and current strength to schedule Louisville number fifty one. That's
better than what Clemson had played. And yeah, I picked
Clemson in the last game. But it is what it is.
There's a huge difference as far as overall talent rank,
not a massive difference. Kentucky number twenty five, Louislle number

(46:48):
thirty three. Louisville can't throw the football, which is good
for Kentucky because they can't defend against the pass, but
Kentucky can defend against the run. Number fifty one in
offensive line yards allowed, Louisville number ninety two. This is
not the same team without Isaac Brown. We'll see if
he plays, We'll see what happens. I don't know what
the injury situation is with him. But number twenty five

(47:09):
in PPAP rush for Louisville, number forty four for Kentucky.
This is such an interesting spot because Kentucky has been
playing better as of late, and man, you want to
talk about the ball just unraveling on you. That's what
happened against Vanderbilt. And yet it makes me believe that
Kentucky may have been more interested in this game than
they were with.

Speaker 2 (47:29):
The Vanderbilt game. Just a guess, Just a guess.

Speaker 1 (47:32):
We'll see. Louisville typically is better on offense, but they
are just atrocious passing it. Number ninety two in points
per scoring opportunity. Kentucky is number ninety nine and points
allowed per scoring opportunity, and yet we saw in several
games where Kentucky was able to keep teams out of
the end zone. I think they can do the same

(47:55):
against Louisville. Now on the other side of the ball,
Kentucky number forty six in points per scoring opportunity, which
is surprising. Louisvill's defense number sixty two. This Louisville defense
is legit, but man, when things fell apart, they just
absolutely fell apart, didn't they. They're number nineteen in PPA
allowed per pass. Kentucky is up to number eighty eight,

(48:16):
but they were in the hundreds for most of the year.
They're number fifty four and PPA allowed per rush Kentucky's
number eighty four. Kentucky number thirty two and rushing success
right well, Louisville number thirteen. So I think you see
some evenness here. Kentucky number one eleven and turnover margin
they're number one twenty and giveaways per game. Louisville is
really good at that number thirty four in takeaways per game.

(48:39):
Both teams inside well inside the top fifty outside the
top forty as far as special teams is concerned. So
they are right there average, maybe better than average. We'll
say both are not great, But okay, I don't know
the special teams is going to decide this ballgame. When

(49:00):
you look at five factors plus talent five factors rank,
I'm not weighing either one of those on this. I
think that Kentucky is in a better situation here. I
think Kentucky wants to get to a bowl game. I
think this is a tight, tight ball game, which three
and a half point spread certainly makes sense. I've got

(49:22):
Louisville minus two point seven as far as protected stat
spread power rating, I've got Kentucky by point five. Last
four weeks, I've got Kentucky minus six. Again, Louisville fell
apart at the wrong time. I think Kentucky fights like
hell in this game. I think they can win it.
So if it's coin flip and I'm getting more than
a field goal, I'll take the Wildcats.

Speaker 2 (49:45):
Give me Kentucky plus three and a half.

Speaker 1 (49:49):
Yes, the rivalry game, eleven am Central Time on Fox.
This is the Biggot right, Ohio State traveling two and
arbor in Ohio State Right, now a ten and a
half point favored with a total of forty four and
a half. I've got a total of fifty five on
this one. Now, why my numbers think that I have

(50:11):
no idea? Uh? Projected stat spread has Ohio State minus
nine point sixty three. Power rating has Ohio State minus
five point six. Now that does include home field advantage.
In the last four weeks, it has Ohio State minus
nine point twenty nine. Michigan only two and three against
the spread at home this year, plus one point six

(50:34):
against the spread. Away from home, Ohio State is three
and one. They are plus three point eight. Now the
only game they did not cover was against Purdue, and
that's pretty wild really when you think about it. Michigan
has won four straight in this series, and I every

(50:54):
freaking year I come in and I'm like, Ohio State's
gonna be ramped up for this, Ohio State's gonna be ready.
Ohio State is the better team, et cetera, and they
have been every single time. But the big issue is
that Ohio State has not played and line of scrimmage
like this all year. Maybe against Texas in Week one,

(51:16):
but it's not like they fared extremely well in that game.
Both teams are trying to figure themselves out at that point. Michigan, now,
you know, not great on defense, number sixty in defensive
success rate, but they are number thirty in PPA allowed
per drive. On defense, Let's start when Ohio State is
on offense, number one in points per scoring opportunity. They

(51:39):
have got some injuries at wide receiver, etc. I think
those guys are all gonna play, but let's just keep
an eye on it. They're not great at running the football.
That is what Michigan defends best. Michigan teams throw the
ball almost fifty five percent of the time on them.
They're number eighty nine and passing success allowed. They are
number sixty one in passing explosiveness, number twenty nine and

(52:01):
have it created. Now Ohio State's offense is number five
and have it allowed. But Ohio State number two in QBR,
number five in yards per attempt, number one in PBA
per pass, Michigan is number thirty five, thirty one and
forty two in those When Ohio State is trying to
run the football, number thirty seven in PBA per rush,
Michigan's defense is number twenty nine. Michigan not great at
stuff rate, but they are number twenty four in offensive

(52:22):
line yards allowed. Ohio State is number twenty six in
offensive lineyards. That is not where their bread is buttered.
On the other side, when Michigan has the football, things
have not gone well.

Speaker 2 (52:36):
They've gone well.

Speaker 1 (52:36):
Enough, especially running the football. I don't know that you're
gonna be able to run it all that much on
Ohio State. But again, who has Ohio State played that
can really run the football. I don't think anyone as
of yet, to be completely honest. Michigan number eleven in
offensive line yards, Ohio State number twenty six and offensive
line yards allowed. Michigan number two and stuff rate allowed.

(52:59):
Ohio State is number thirty two and stuff rate. So
Michigan might be able to move the football on the ground.
And if you can do that, then you can hit
some play action passes. Bryce Underwood can get out of
the pocket, maybe he makes some incredible plays.

Speaker 2 (53:12):
We'll see.

Speaker 1 (53:14):
Ohio State number eighty nine and takeaways per game. They're
not great at generating turnovers. That is one of the
weaknesses of Michigan. Number fifty six and giveaways per game.
Let's see.

Speaker 2 (53:24):
Let's see what happens there.

Speaker 1 (53:26):
Michigan number thirty four in takeaways per game, but Ohio
State number four in giveaways. Yeah, okay, not totally certain
what to think with that. There are there's a ton
of numbers that would lead to Ohio State blowing this
game open. But if you just look overall at these

(53:47):
two teams, I'm interested in what does Ohio State look
like in a game that really matters that they feel
like they have to have because they have not been
put in that situation yet, right, they have not faced

(54:09):
a ton of adversity this year. This is the first
taste of it. I don't know if Michigan wins the game.
This thing opened to eleven and a half, it's down
to ten and a half. I would continue to be
on that side right now until Ohio State shows me
that they can win this game. I'm going to go

(54:30):
the opposite direction. And of course, this is the first
year that I will have gone. Michigan and Ohio State
probably blows this thing wide open, but I'm gonna need
them to prove it to me. And all of my
numbers agree. Even the last four weeks has it less
than ten. So if this thing is over ten, I'll
take Michigan plus ten and a half here until Ohio

(54:53):
State shows they can actually do it still. On Saturday
two thirty pm Central Time on ABC, LSU goes to
Oklahoma and Oklahoma right now a ten to ten and
a half point home favorite total of thirty eight and
a half on this one, very interesting, very interesting spot.
LSU has not played great under Frank Wilson. This is

(55:16):
a team that just cannot do anything on offense, and
they're going up against a team that just cannot do
anything on offense. I mean, it's this is the Spider
Man meme if I've ever seen one. So let's talk
about numbers. LSU against Western Kentucky. They put up thirteen
total points in that game. Michael Van Buren is going

(55:38):
to be the quarterback here. I mean, I don't even
know where to begin with this. Oklahoma has found ways
to win games and they just and it's all defense, right.
Turnover margins is getting significantly better, but takeaways per game,

(55:58):
they're still number eighty nine in the country and that
even though they've gotten significantly better with it, they are
number six. Let's start with Oklahoma on defense. Oklahoma number
six and points per scoring opportunity on defense, LSU is
number one twelve, So if you get down there, you're
probably not gonna score. I mean, LSU number one fifteen

(56:19):
in offensive red zone touchdown rate. Oklahoma's defense is number six.
We saw it with Missouri, like that opening drive. Missouri
kept the ball for eight minutes. They were able to
run the ball. LSU can't do that. But they were
able to run the ball on this Oklahoma defense and
after an eight minute drive they got three points.

Speaker 2 (56:39):
What do you do with that now?

Speaker 1 (56:42):
At the same time, if LSU doesn't give the ball away,
they're number forty three in giveaways per game, which is
the exact same as Oklahoma. But if they don't give
the ball away, and we'll see, we'll see about that,
then I don't know that Oklahoma can drive on LSU

(57:07):
number seventy eight in scoring opportunities per game, that's when
you get a first down inside the opponent forty. They're
number let's see number eighty one and rushing success rate
number ninety. In passing success rate number ninety and PPA
per pass number eighty nine and PPA per rush. LSU's
defense number thirty three in defensive success rate number twenty

(57:27):
five in PPA per drive allowed. This LSU defense is
good enough as well. Oklahoma number fifty eight in points
per scoring opportunity, LSU's defense number twenty one there. Oklahoma
number eighteen in offensive red zone touchdown rate. The issue is,
of course, they are number one eleven in red zone
appearances per game, so they don't get down there very often.

(57:48):
When they do, they normally score touchdowns. But LSU number
sixteen in defensive red zone touchdow excuse me, defensive red
zone appearances per game, number fifty six defensive red zone
touchdown rate. Both of these defenses are stingy with the
end zone. So when it comes to that, I feel

(58:09):
like ten and a half points. And this is Kyle
Hunter told me this forever ago. If you have a
low total that is, you know, low forties or upper thirties,
and you've got a team giving up double digits, you
might as well just go with a dog. They cover
it like a sixty something percent rate.

Speaker 2 (58:30):
It's it's ridiculous.

Speaker 1 (58:32):
Oklahoma giving up ten and a half here. I know
that my numbers say the opposite. Oklahoma minus almost thirteen
for projected stats, spread power rating Oklahoma minus eleven. Last
four weeks, Oklahoma minus twenty. LSU was seven and four.
They're trying to figure out a way to salvage this season.
Oklahoma has the pressure of the playoff up against them.

(58:56):
I still think Oklahoma wins the game. I think this
is a tighter ball game. The Missouri game should have
been a closer game, really should have. No LSU can't
run the football, but I could absolutely see them finding
a way to generate some kind of a rushing attack
with Michael van Buren. I don't think they cared at

(59:17):
all about the Western Kentucky game. I think they can
hang here. I think this is going to be super
low scoring. You could see a twenty.

Speaker 2 (59:24):
To ten game.

Speaker 1 (59:26):
You could see a twenty well maybe not twenty four
to seventeen, but you could see something along the lines
of twenty three because Tate Sandel is.

Speaker 2 (59:38):
Going to gick field goals. He absolutely is.

Speaker 1 (59:40):
I mean, Oklahoma number sixteen and special Tem's efficiency ridiculous.
But you're going to see some field goals out of Oklahoma,
and in that instance, maybe we're looking at twenty three
to fourteen, something along those lines twenty three thirteen. Either

(01:00:07):
one of those gets me a cover. I'll take LSU.
Give me the Tigers plus the ten and a half
two thirty pm Central Time, God's time Zone on ABC,
Vanderbilt heading over to Knoxville. Oh boy, the Vanderbilt Common
Awards against the Tennessee Volunteers. And what an incredible, incredible

(01:00:30):
game we got going on here. Tennessee favored by two
and a half at home total of sixty four and
a half on this one. This one's on ESPN power
rating has Tennessee by two point three. The projected stat
spread has Tennessee by two point three six the last
four weeks as Vanderbilt favored by three point three five.

(01:00:52):
And yes that does include home field advantage total of
sixty four and a half on this I've got sixty nine,
but sixty nine point six nice, right, dudes, I love
saying that whenever there's a sixty nine involved. Okay, I'm

(01:01:12):
so old that I make fun of the trendy shit now.

Speaker 2 (01:01:20):
Anyway. Anyway, continuing on.

Speaker 1 (01:01:24):
Vandy number fifteen in PPA margin Tennessee number thirteen, Vandy's
defense is gassed, they are injured, they are whipped, and
they are terrible against the pass. That's not a good
match up here number one twelve and PPA allowed for
pass number ninety six in QBR allowed, number ninety two
in passing success allowed, Tennessee is number seventeen, number fifteen,

(01:01:46):
and number twenty.

Speaker 2 (01:01:47):
In those metrics.

Speaker 1 (01:01:51):
Joey Aguilar will have opportunities in this game, absolutely, And
on top of that, Tennessee is probably going to be
able to run the their number eleven and rushing success rate.
Vandy is number thirty seven offensive line yards, Tennessee is
number fifty, Vandy number forty two. But Tennessee is number
nine and stuff rate allowed and Vandy is number forty
two and stuff rate. So Tennessee, I think, is going

(01:02:14):
to be able to score here. They're number ten in
points per scoring opportunity. Vandy is number seventy two in
points allowed per scoring opportunity. That's a first down inside
of the forty in case you've forgotten especial teams efficiency.
By the way, Vandy number four, Tennessee number thirty three.
Interesting numbers, of course, Vandy's offense number two in PPA

(01:02:35):
Prier Pass, number seven in PP April Rush.

Speaker 2 (01:02:37):
There are number four in.

Speaker 1 (01:02:38):
Points per scoring opportunity, Tennessee's defense number one oh five.
I think we're going to see a lot of points,
a whole lot of points. These are two teams that somehow,
some way, this thing is gonna end up coming down

(01:03:02):
to the wire. Tennessee always finds a way to beat
this Vanderbilt team. Now, granted, this is the best Vanderbilt
team that I've ever seen in my lifetime. This is
better than the James Franklin teams. This is you know, etcetera.
The offensive line is really really good running the football.
Offensive line yards number thirty five, Tennessee's defense number thirty six,

(01:03:23):
rushing success number thirty five at Tennessee's defense number one
oh five, even though they're number twenty seven in yards
allowed per rush, Vandy number twelve in yards per rush,
and diego if you make him sit in the pocket
and throw, or you you, you know, get some kind
of pressure on him and make him throw the football.

(01:03:44):
He's not great, even though the numbers would tell you otherwise.
But Tennessee number fifteen in havoc. You know, I know,
Vandy's number twenty three and havoc allowed. But I mean
that could certainly be interesting, could certainly be interesting. Vandy
number fourteen and giveaways per game. Tennessee number twenty seven

(01:04:07):
and takeaways. So that's going to be a struggle. Tennessee
number eighty one and giveaways per game. Vandy only number
sixty one takeaways. So they're not great at generating turnovers.
Vandy better at finishing drives. But eh, I still I
don't feel great about them going on the road here.
They are two to one and one against the spread

(01:04:29):
away from home this year Tennessee two and four against
the spread at home.

Speaker 2 (01:04:36):
Diego as a dog is always fantastic, and.

Speaker 1 (01:04:41):
This is the kind of this is the kind of
team that Tennessee just would have nightmares about.

Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
I mean, this is a.

Speaker 1 (01:04:55):
Tough one to figure out, very very tough. Diego as
a dog, like, I'm gonna have to go that way.
And I know they're playing in Knoxville, and I feel
like I should be taking Tennessee because this is kind
of like the Kentucky versus Tennessee thing where Kentucky always
keeps it close against everybody, but Tennessee. Vanderbilt never beats Tennessee.
And yet this feels like a Diego game. I'm expecting chaos.

(01:05:22):
I think Tennessee's gonna score. I think Vanderbilt is gonna
score a lot. I think it could get crazy. And
if it gets crazy. You got basically a Johnny Football
replicuy out there. Yeah, give me Diego Diego plus two
and a half in this one.

Speaker 2 (01:05:38):
All right, let's recap what we got.

Speaker 1 (01:05:40):
I've got individual videos that are gonna be out later,
but I'm going to tell you my weeknight game picks.
Taking Bowling Green minus the points minus sixteen and a
half is what I took that I had to record
it earlier. You can't get a fourteen and a half
out there now, if I'm not mistaken. I took Eastern
Michigan plus six and a half against Western Michigan, and
I took Memphis minus five and a half against Navy.

(01:06:01):
So that's your Tuesday and Thursday games. Now, let's recap this.
I started off with a lot of favorites, ended with
all dogs. Feels like a funky week. Let's see what happens.
Iowa minus five and a half, Ole Miss minus seven,
Utah minus thirteen and a half, Georgia minus twelve and
a half, Purdue plus twenty eight and a half, Texas

(01:06:22):
plus two and a half, Arizona State plus one, Clemson
plus two and a half, Kentucky plus three and a half,
Michigan plus ten and a half, LSU plus ten and
a half, and then Vanderbilt plus two and a half.
Good gracious, all right, make sure you are subscribed to
the channel. We're gonna be covering every Bowl game, every
playoff game, et cetera. On this channel. We talk about

(01:06:44):
the games. I'm not that worried about coaching searches and
blah blah blah blah. The thing that got to all
of this, that led us down this path of talking,
you know, talking head season all that kind of mess,
was always the games. I don't care about the playoff,
I don't care about whatever. Whatever cool matchups we get cool,

(01:07:05):
we'll talk about them. We'll talk about it against the spread.
In that sense, I'm excited about all of it. We
got a fun rest of the year going and it's
still you know, around Thanksgiving. Oh, by the way, I
hope you all have a happy Thanksgiving this week. I'll
tell you that on the Tuesday show.

Speaker 2 (01:07:22):
But yeah, I'm excited about all of it. All right.

Speaker 1 (01:07:25):
With that said, don't forget buy ma cooffee dot com
slash winning Cures, don't forget to subscribe to the channel.
Like the video, jump in the comments and if you
want to talk to me. You can do that over
at Buy May Coffee or just email Gary at Winning
Curesverything dot com. With that said, take care of yourself,
take care of each other. God bless college football and

(01:07:45):
hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.

Speaker 2 (01:07:48):
Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything.

Speaker 1 (01:07:51):
Subscribe, leave a review or comment, follow at Gary wc
on x and check out the web store.

Speaker 7 (01:08:00):
Christmas spirits with great value this week at dun Stores.
Choose from our Lint Lindor Troubles three hundred and thirty
seven gram range now only ten euro each. Pick up
selected Pringles one hundred and sixty five gram now half
price a just one euro seventy four and check out
deal ten of our twelve Deals of Christmas with a
great selection of Lego sets now half price plus. You

(01:08:21):
can save more with your ten or fifty vectuer. Make
Christmas for everyone at Dunn Stores. Terms and conditions apply.
Facers can be used our next grocery shop.

Speaker 10 (01:08:29):
If you makesmen a free I guess come at Lardlish
Chance Okay, bandy my three Las.

Speaker 6 (01:08:38):
Dylan Vau Paul Dordlan to the Fochte tet martunker a
gamboul nicotine, a renord agola, a guess a renumera Hoko
is moshanskagashi at the back, agasiadni shine freshen, marthin, paring
and all rhine. August lauerlo Enof find the fiery kife
Vor Paul Augus nicotine through a quarter HC. Punkai e
tull slash vaeping on HC

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Bobby Bones Show

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Week 14 2025 College Football Picks for Big Early Games!

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

The Bobby Bones Show

All Episodes

Week 14 2025 College Football Picks for Big Early Games!

Stuff You Should Know