Week 14 2025 College Football Predictions for 14 More Games!

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It's week fourteen. We got fourteen more games that we're
going to make predictions on and these are all on
Saturday A by the cars.

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Please please fresh if anything of counts right now, this
is cush everything in my.

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Life right now. Flush.

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We do things differently on the mountains, like never serving
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Of course, keep it fresh.

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Get the facts, be drink aware. If it's a drinkaware
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Speaker 1 (00:52):
Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast.
I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary WCEE on all
the different so most active on X obviously, and of
course if you want to reach out to me the
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dot com. Of course, all of these stat spreadsheets that
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(01:13):
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(01:35):
long today. We're not gonna do a Wednesday show. Only
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With that said, let's not waste time. Let's get to it.
Game number one This one on Saturday, two thirty pm

(01:58):
Central Time, God's time zone on FS one, Wisconsin travels
to Minnesota. Yeah, they're gonna fight for the trophy. We
know what's up with this rivalry game. It's it's been
a lot of fun over the past few years, really
over the past forever. I mean, it's just a good,
good Big ten rivalry. Minnesota a one to one and
a half point favorite depending on the book total is

(02:19):
thirty seven and a half, so we are talking about
a very very low total. This one opened, as you
can see, at Minnesota minus two and a half with
a total of thirty eight and a half on it.
Go ahead and tell you my number has Minnesota by
four point nine. My power rating has Minnesota minus two
point one. Over the last four weeks, though it would
have Wisconsin favored Wisconsin multiple ranked wins in a row.

(02:43):
They are looking better. They went with kind of the
youth movement, and it's looking better for Luke Fickle. He's
going to be around next year. They've already said that
that's a good thing. Now these are season long stats.
Wisconsin has been playing significantly better on defense. They're really
really good against the run. Minnesota throws the ball a lot,
but they're not good at it. Number one ten in

(03:03):
yards per attempt, number eighty five in QBR, number one
fifteen in passing explosiveness, but this Wisconsin defense not good
against the pass number one thirteen and PPA allowed per
pass number one eleven and yards per attempt but when
it comes to run on the football, Minnesota is the
most dangerous when they've got Darius Taylor available. I don't
know the status on that. Some games he's in, some

(03:25):
games he's out. It is what it is. But Wisconsin
is really good against the run. Number twenty one in
yards allowed per rush, Number twenty four in rushing explosiveness allowed,
number forty nine in offensive line yards allowed, number thirty
in stuff Right, they are a really good running defense.
Even though they're number one nineteen in rushing success allowed.
All of the other metrics tend to go their way.

(03:46):
Wisconsin number one in the country in current strength to schedule.
I mean, it's brutal what they've had to go through.
They are four and seven and the way that this
season started, would have never imagined them getting a four
wins never would And they've got a chance at a
fifth here because it's not like they're outmanned in this game.
They're actually more talented overall than Minnesota. Is kind of surprising.

(04:11):
Wisconsin three and one against the spread on the road
this year plus four point nine, Minnesota two three and
one against the spread at home this year plus seven. Now,
they were much better at home against the number last year.
This year not so much. It's just been kind of even,
kind of whatever. Now the plus seven certainly looks nice,

(04:32):
but Wisconsin ain't scared of going on the road. They
are used to this as far as who can finish drives.
Wisconsin's offense number one thirty five in points per scoring opportunity,
so they have to get it done elsewhere. They're not
great at generating turnovers giveaways for all that. It's just
that they've been so much better lately. Right Minnesota, Eh,

(04:58):
this has not been a grand year by any stretch
of the imagination, but it does feel like PJ. Fleck
tends to get his guys up for these games. Wisconsin, though,
is on a roll. Like there's not a number here
that I can tell you other than the fact that
both of these are inside the top four in penalties
per game. That's about the only metric that they're both

(05:18):
pretty good at. Because Minnesota's defense has not been good,
Minnesota's offense overall, down to down basis not been good.
Minnesota is number fifty seven in points per scoring opportunity.
Wisconsin's defense is number twenty eight, though, but Minnesota is
number one eleven in scoring opportunities per game. They don't
get down there much. They don't get a first down
inside the opponent forty very often. I'm gonna go with

(05:42):
Wisconsin here because they have just been significantly better. They
made quarterback changes, they went with younger players, they seem
like they're having fun, and this team looks bought. In
Minnesota last week, you know you've got a big eat
on Northwestern and then the Wildcats find a way to

(06:02):
come back and win the ball game. Maybe it changes
because you're at home, but they haven't played a whole
lot better at home this year. So I will take
Wisconsin plus. The best number I can give is one
and a half, but I think Wisconsin wins the game outright,
So give me the Badgers plus the one and a half.
Game number two. Oh yes, three thirty pm Central Time

(06:26):
on ESPN two. Florida State goes to Florida Right now.
Florida State a one and a half point favorite at
some books. Florida is a one and a half point
favorite at some books. I mean, this thing is all
over the place, fifty and a half to fifty one
and a half, depending on the book that's come down
from the fifty two and a half that it opened.

(06:48):
It opened as Florida a two and a half point favorite.
This thing is just all over the place. How how
you could wager on Florida State on the road, I
have no idea. They're zero to four against the spreads
far this season minus seventeen point one. Since last season,
they are zero to seven and one, sorry, seven and

(07:08):
one against the spread on the road minus fourteen point six. Now,
Florida has not played that much better at home two
and three against the spread at home minus four point six,
but that is a tidgs better than what Florida State
has done thus far. Florida State in eleven or sorry,
in ten of the eleven games that they have played

(07:30):
thus far this season, they have outgained their opponent by
more than forty yards and they just keep losing games.
I mean, make it make sense. They are number one
oh four in giveaways per game. Well, Florida is also
number one oh four in giveaways per game, but Florida
is number forty nine and takeaway, so they generate more turnovers.
Florida State number seventy five in takeaways per game, so

(07:50):
they're not great at it. Florida significantly better in special teams,
the ranked inside the top twenty. Florida State number seventy
nine in special team's efficiency. To look at who can
finish drives, Florida State number ninety three in points per
scoring opportunity, which is insane because they're number twelve in
PPA per drive. They are number twenty one in offensive

(08:11):
success rate. But make it make sense. I don't understand it.
I you know, I don't get it. They're number ninety
three at defending a points allowed per scoring opportunity. Florida
is number seventy two, So Florida is not great at that.
Florida State on offense number forty two in points for

(08:34):
scoring opportunity, number sixty in points for scoring opportunity for
Florida's defense, and overall, on the season, on a down
to down basis, Florida State has been way better than Florida.
They are five and six. Florida State needs this one
to get to a bowl game. And if you're Mike Norville,

(08:55):
you need a bowl game like humans need air. I mean,
it's just that you need that so badly. There's gonna
be staff changers, there's gonna be all kind of that.
Mike Mike offered already offered the ad there said that
he's coming back next year. But is that just a

(09:15):
one year thing or is it because and I imagine
it's just because they don't have that kind of money
to fire the coaching staff and whatnot. So we'll see
what ends up happening. But man, you need to be
taking advantage of the fact that Florida is down down
before they go and get a new coach, because you're
about to spring a whole lot of hope into that

(09:37):
Gainesville program. Tallahass He don't need that right now. They
got to figure out a way to sell this program
to recruits, and they've not been good at it anyway.
Florida's defense number eighty one and PPA allowed per pass.
There are number sixty three in PPA allowed per rush,
So maybe maybe they'll be able to do something here.

(10:00):
Like they certainly match up, you know, player to player
with Florida State. The issue is do they care at all?
I mean, they just got demolished by Tennessee, they got
demolished by Kentucky. They got but they were in games
with Georgia and Ole Miss, So like, again, are they

(10:21):
up for this game or are they not? This is
your last chance to go out and do something. Do
they play hard? Do they not? And it's kind of
the same thing with Florida State. Can you coach bad
decisions out of them? I don't know that you can.
And I think that Florida has shown more quit to
me than Florida State. Right Florida State just hurts themselves

(10:42):
over and over and over again. Florida. There's one a
whole lot there. And I know that people don't like
using the word to quit. I understand that, but man,
my projected stat spread has Florida State by four point
eight four. My power rating has Florida State by one.
My last four weeks, even with the blowout losses and whatnot,

(11:03):
has Florida minus sixteen point eighty seven. That is wild
to me, absolutely wild, and I don't agree with it.
I'm gonna go with the projected stat spread. I think
Florida State is gonna win this game. I think they
are going to make a bowl game and then we'll
let the chips fall where they may. I think this

(11:23):
Florida State team is better than Florida at this current point.
I think Florida this season is wrapped up. We're done.
So best number I can get out there Florida State
plus one and a half, and I think they win
the game outright. Game number three Missouri heads two Arkansas
three pm Central time, God's time zone on the SEC network,

(11:47):
of course, and Missouri right now a two and a
half point road favorite total of fifty eight and a half.
My stats projected spread has Missouri by three point seventy five.
My power rating has Missouri minus one point six. My
last weeks has Missouri by almost a touchdown. Let's start
with Arkansas's side of the ball. When they've got the football,

(12:08):
they're number thirteen in PPA per drive. Excuse me, they
are really good at throwing the football. Their problem is,
of course, interceptions. Well, Missouri does not generate a ton
of interceptions, so they should be fine. They are number
one twenty eight and fumbles lost per rush and Missouri
is number eighty eight and it fumbles gained per rushing
attempt defended. So you don't have too much to worry

(12:30):
about because Missouri doesn't exactly generate a ton of turnovers here,
but Missouri's defense is still really good. They are number
to number five and havoc. Arkansas's offense is number eighty
seven and havoc allowed. Missouri number thirty four in offensive
line yards allowed. They are number twenty two in rushing
yards are yards allowed per rush? Yeah, Missouri's defense should

(12:56):
be able to hold up here somewhat. But Arkansas has
scored on everybody other than Notre Dame, and some of
that had to do with turnovers, et cetera. But still,
this Arkansas team is explosive. They are going to put
up points, period. It's the defense that is so bad
for Arkansas. Just overall there are number one twenty five
and defensive success rate allowed, number one twenty eight in

(13:20):
defense PPA excuse me a predicted points to add it
allowed per drive. Missouri overall just a significantly better football
team when it comes right down to it. I mean
number thirty and five factors rank Arkansas's number seventy eight.
I am curious, Missouri is number eighteen and overall talent

(13:45):
rank Arkansas's number twenty nine. Arkansas number eleven. In special
team sufficiency, Missouri number one fifteen, So that is something
that could certainly come back to haunt them. Missouri number
thirty seven. The penalties per game Arkansas one O two.
I Thinkssouri's going to be able to move the football
in Arkansas. That should not be a problem at all.
But even still, I think Arkansas is gonna put up

(14:10):
points even on this Missouri defense. Like there's a world
of difference from defending Oklahoma to defending Arkansas. Now, Missouri's
defense was able to hold Vanderbilt at bay. They were
able to hold Alabama at bay for most of that game.
Missouri has done some pretty good things. But I mean,

(14:33):
with this thing being two and a half, I Arkansas
has found a way to lose all the games by
very tiny margins. If all I got to do is
take Missouri minus two and a half, I feel like
that's kind of cheating. So the line kind of screams

(14:54):
at me because Bobby Petrino has not gotten a win yet.
You know, he and those want a win. They're at home.
I still can't do it. I can't trust them. I
feel like they're going to turn the ball over. Even
though Missouri doesn't generate turnovers. I still think they're gonna
find a way for Arkansas to give them the football
at some point. And I like Missouri's defensive line a lot,

(15:19):
so I feel like, you know, now they've got boat
Pribulah back again. I think they're going to be ready
for this one. I think they can win by at
least a field goal, but probably more so. I will
take Missouri minus the two and a half on the road.
Game number four, six thirty pm Central Time, Guide's time
Zone on ABC, The Iron Bowl, Alabama going to Jordan

(15:42):
Hair and good gracious Auburn. They are currently a five
and a half point home dog to the Tide. At
forty seven and a half is our total. So the
total has come down from forty eight and a half.
The opening spread was four and a half, went down
to three and a half for a little bit on Sunday,
came back up. It's now sitting at five and a
half and has sat there for hours on end at

(16:05):
this point, and you could not put bigger steaks on
a football game. Auburn needs this to go to a
bowl game, and Alabama needs this one to go to
the playoff, the SEC Championship game, all kinds of things.
If Alabama loses this, you're out of the playoff, You're
out of the SEC Title game. Kaylin de Boor has
another nine win season, does he end up leaving for

(16:29):
another job, because there is there's some chatter about him
maybe wanting to go to Penn State. And it's not
like we haven't seen this before. Dennis Franchoni did the
same thing, had a great second year in two thousand
and one at Alabama. Now the circumstances were significantly different,
but yeah or sorry, two thousand and two he had

(16:49):
a great season and then left to go to Texas
A and M not saying that that's gonna happen, but
it's not like we haven't seen it before. That the
pressure of this job is immense. So let's take a
look at the numbers. Let's see what we got. My

(17:09):
projected stat spread has Bama by eight point two eight.
My power rating has Bama minus six. My last four
weeks has Bama by fourteen, and yet the spread is
way way down there Auburn. None of these offensive numbers matter,
not a single thing. They can run the football. Bama
has actually been pretty good against the run. Early in

(17:31):
the season, they could not stop the run for anything,
but now their number fifteen and rushing success allowed, number
forty eight in yards allowed per rush. They are still
number sixty four in rushing explosiveness allowed. But the number
twenty in offensive line yards allowed, number fifty in stuff rate.
They're getting better. This is the defense is getting better,
especially against the run, and Auburn could have trouble with that.

(17:53):
Auburn played Deuce Night at quarterback last week. I expect
to see him in this game. I don't think they're
gonna start Ashton Daniels. I don't think you're gonna start
Jackson Arnold. I think DJ Durkin has said, this is
who I'm pitching my wagon to. Kid had crazy numbers
and no grantity was against Mercer and now. The only

(18:14):
other game that he played was like the FCS game.
So Deuce Knight hasn't seen players like he'll see with Alabama.
He hasn't seen pressures like what Pierre and that bunch
are gonna bring in this game. So I'm curious about it.
One thing that you do have to worry about is
have it allowed Alburn number ninety five, that offensive line

(18:37):
still can't pass block and Bama's number twenty two, and
have it created something to pay attention to scoring opportunities
per game? Auburn number one seventeen, but they are number
thirty four in points per scoring opportunity. So if you
look offensive red zone conversion percentage, they are number fifty three.
So they have to hit explosive plays because their number

(18:59):
one twenty four an offensive red zone touchdown rate. When
they get down there, they can't put the ball in
the end zone. Now, we don't know what duce Knight's
gonna do, but we'll see. We will see on the
other side of the ball. And one thing that could
end up killing Alabama here number one h two in
special teams efficiency, Alburn is number fifty nine. It's not

(19:19):
that Alburn's great, but it's just that Bama can be
really bad in this spot. Oh. Bbama, by the way,
number thirty seven in points allowed per scoring opportunity, number
twenty in scoring opportunities allowed per game. So that is
something to pay attention to. On the other side, Bama,
I think everybody understands at this point and the schemes

(19:40):
are just atrocious. Saw an interesting tweet today about the
fact that jam Miller, once he had his concussion against Missouri,
after that game he has been averaging like two point
one yards per carry. Before that, he was averaging four
point six. Do you just roll with Daniel Hill? I

(20:00):
mean there's all kinds of questions there, but obviously I
don't think they're gonna change anything at this point. We're
twelve games in, so Bama throws the football and they
throw it a lot. They're number thirty two in pass rate,
almost fifty three percent of the time they're gonna throw
the ball on offense. They are number twelve in passing
success number twenty seven in passing explosiveness, although they have

(20:21):
not been as explosive as of late, but they are
number twelve in PPA per pass. That's what they do.
They generate a running game by throwing to the flat,
throwing to the tight end, all that kind of stuff.
Auburn is not good at defending it. They are number
seventy seven in passing down PPA. They're number eighty eight

(20:43):
and passing down success rate. Bama's number twelve in passing
down success rate, Auburn number ninety nine and PPA allowed
to pass, number ninety six in the yards allowed pass
attempt number ninety or sorry one of three in passing
success rate, number ninety two in passing explosiveness allowed. So yeah,
Auburn can absolutely defend the run. But Bama's number one

(21:05):
oh three in rush rate. They run the ball a
little over forty six percent of the time. They're number
one eleven in yards per rush. Auburn's defense is number
five in yards allowed per rush. But if they don't
ever do it, what does it matter? Right? Bama is
number twenty nine and points per scoring opportunity Auburn's defense
number thirty nine. Bama number twenty one in scoring opportunities

(21:29):
per game, so six point seven to three drives per
game where they get a first down inside of the opponent
forty Auburn number fifty four in scoring opportunities per game
are allowed per game. Excuse me, five point four to
five drives they allow per game, so Bama number thirteen
and five factors rank Auburn number fifty four. And this
is interesting when you look at it. Auburn doesn't turn

(21:53):
the football over number three and give aways per game,
but can that change with a new quarterback? Obviously we'll
see Bama numbers thirty four and takeaways per game at
number twenty six and giveaways per game, but they have
been turning the ball over much more recently. Can Auburn
generate some kind of pressure on Tys Simpson to make
him uncomfortable to where he drops the football again. We

(22:17):
shall see, we shall see. I think if you've watched
this show long enough, you understand that I am in
full belief that Jordenhair Stadium was built on like an
ancient voodoo burial ground. It was built on top of it.
So there is crazy stuff that happens in that stadium.

(22:40):
Auburn at home one and five against the spread. The
only spread that they covered at home this year was
last week against Mercer. They are minus three point nine
at home. Bama is one two and one against the spread.
On the road, the only game that they covered was
in Athens against Georgia, and they've got some kind of
voodoo hecks on Georgia. However, usually when Bama goes on

(23:04):
the road, they are a double digit favorite. When they're
a double digit favorite, they don't cover, they lose, They
don't do well. In this case, it's less than a touchdown,
and my numbers say that this should be significantly more. Now.

(23:29):
If Alabama lets the pressure of the situation get to them,
then absolutely they will fold like a cheap folding chair.
I mean, it's gonna be ridiculous. However, you come out
and play the way that they know how to play,
that they have done for most of the season. They've

(23:49):
got the better players, they've got the more experienced quarterback.
They've got a defense that can get after a freshman quarterback,
even at home. You should be able to make something
happen here. I think five and a half, I'm gonna
say it's too little. I'm gonna go with Bama to cover.
I do not feel great about it. I will go

(24:11):
ahead and tell you that because I still believe in curse.
This is the first time in twenty years that Alabama
has a different coach than Nick Saban on the sideline
in Jordenhair Stadium two thousand and five. It was Alabama
at Auburn when Mike Shula was the coach and that

(24:32):
did not go well. So yeah, before Saban, very very
little success in Jurdenhair, And even with Shula or even
with Saban, excuse me, uh, still not a lot of success.
And yet Kaylin de Boor seems to know how to

(24:52):
win these kinds of games. He always has. I gotta
trust the coaching staff here. Give me Bama. My is
five and a half game Number five in Northwestern is
headed to Champagne to take on the fighting A Lione
I of Illinois this one six thirty pm Central Time
on Fox and Illinois is six and a half to

(25:13):
seven point favorite total forty seven and a half on
this one. Good gracious. Illinois did not look good against
Wisconsin last week, not in the slightest and yet when
they play at home five and one against the spread
plus four point six. They are nine three and one
against the spread over the last two seasons at home.

(25:36):
Northwestern three five and one against the spread on the
road in the last two seasons, one two and one
this year, so not great. You've got an Illinois team
that seems to play significantly better at home. Let's dive
into the numbers. My projected stat spread has Illinois by
five point eight. It's almost six points. Power raiding has

(25:56):
Illinois by five. If you just take the stats from
the last four weeks, it would have Northwestern favored by
almost a touchdown. Very very interesting. Both of these teams
already Bowl eligible, so you don't have to worry about
making a bowl game here. That's certainly a good thing.
But when you dive into it, we'll start with Illinois

(26:18):
on offense. They can't run the football, which is good
for Northwestern because Northwestern can't defend the run. Northwestern number
one twenty five and rushing success allowed. Illinois is number
forty in rushing success rate, but the number one hundred
yards per rush number ninety seven and PBA per rush
number one oh nine and stuff right allowed number seventy
two in offensive line yards. I mean, it's just how

(26:40):
we get to a forty percent or forty six point
thirty three percent rushing success rate. I have no idea
because they're just not good at it's it's pretty wild.
But throwing the football is a different matter. Illinois number
nineteen in PBA per pass Illinois or Northwesterns defense ecuse me,

(27:02):
number seventy and PPA allowed per pass Northwestern's defense. This
is not what you were used to seeing out of
Pat Fitzgerald. This defense is EH at best. Northwestern, by
the way, second slowest pace in the entire country, number
one thirty five. Just wild. They run a play or sorry,

(27:25):
they run one point nine to seven plays every minute,
so they are using that clock just doing what they can.
So the Northwestern defense, I don't necessarily believe in them,
but you know they find ways to get it done.
Both teams, by the way, top twenty five in special
teams efficiency. Okay, Illinois number sixty six and five factors rank,

(27:49):
Northwestern number eighty eight. Northwestern's offense pretty good at running
the football. That happens to be what Illinois is best
at defending. Illinois is number fifty four and rushing success
allowed number twenty three and rushing explosiveness allowed number fifty six.
In yards per rush, Northwestern number thirty five in yards
per rush, number forty eight and rushing success they are
number eighty one and rushing explosiveness number sixty three in

(28:11):
offensive line yards, forty third in stuff rate allowed. And
they're not great at throwing the football, but they are
better at it than Illinois is at defending it. So
this feels like it's going to be a tight ballgame.
You look at penalties per game, both are inside the
top twenty one, turnover margin both outside the top sixty.

(28:32):
Northwestern gives it way more, but they are better at
generating turnovers. Illinois number fourteen and giveaways per game. They
don't turn the ball over, but they're number one on
one in takeaways, so they don't generate turnovers. So what
is that going to mean, who knows. At this point,
Northwestern finds a way to cover games. They are six

(28:54):
and three against the spread. This year, Illinois is seven
and three, but man Illinois has not looked good as
of late. That game against Wisconsin really threw me. Last week,
Northwestern found a way to come back, fought, won the
game against Minnesota. They got to bowl eligibility. I think
Northwestern hangs around here. This feels like a fuel goal

(29:14):
kind of game. It could be thirty one to twenty seven.
It could be a hell I mean, it could be
lower scoring. It could be twenty one to seventeen, something
like that. I think it falls within six and a
half to seven. So if I'm getting a touchdown with Northwestern,
I will gladly take that. Give me the Wildcats plus

(29:34):
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Speaker 4 (31:11):
Always read the leafless if.

Speaker 1 (31:14):
You haven't already subscribed to the channel. Of course, like
the video and do me a favor. Jump in the
comments let me know your picks. This week have had
multiple people already jump out and give me some picks.
The board is kind of gross right now. I feel
like I'm pretty close in a lot of these numbers,
So give me, give me some thoughts, tell me what

(31:35):
you are seeing with these, and jump in the comments
with that. But first subscribe because there's still over fifty
percent of you that are watching that are not subscribed
to the channel. And like the video and press whatever
the hype button is thing. If you see a hype button,
I still don't really know what that means, but press
it and help me out. I guess yeah, who knows?

(31:58):
Game number six nine thirty p Central Time, God's time
zone on ESPN, Notre Dame heads two Stamford and currently
the Fighting Irish are a thirty two and a half
point favorite total of fifteen and a half to fifty
one and a half and Hugh, my numbers don't get
there now. My last four weeks numbers, it has Notre

(32:18):
Dame by more than five touchdowns minus thirty six point
five to two, the beating that they put on Syracuse
last week. They scored twenty one points on Syracuse before
they ever even touched the ball on offense. I don't
think you're gonna see the same thing here against Stanford,
but man, Stanford's numbers would bear it out that I mean,
it is a possibility. Stanford is number ninety six in

(32:41):
turnover margin, number ninety three and giveaways per game, the
number one twenty six and special teams. I mean it's possible.
And certainly after the way that they the way they
demolished Cal and got Justin Wilcox fired last week, you
feel like there might be some regression to the mean
with this man. That's insane. And my projected SAT spread

(33:06):
has Notre Dame by a little more than twenty five
and a half points. My power rating only has Notre
Dame by twenty one and a half. The offense for
Stanford is atrocious. They are really bad. Number one twenty
six in finishing drives. They are number one twenty in
rushing success rate, number one twenty two in passing success rate.

(33:27):
They don't really do anything well in this Notre Dame
defense has certainly improved from where they were after the
first two games of the year. They are now number
ten and PPA allowed per drive. They are number thirty
four in current strength to schedule. Now that strength to
schedule is I mean, you want to talk about so
much pressure. They have put so much of the weight

(33:48):
of their schedule on USC, Texas A and m and Miami,
and that's basically it. Everybody else has just kind of
been yeah. Right, So Stanford number thirty two in current
strength the schedule and they play in the ACC and

(34:08):
it's not like they've played a murder's row by any
stretch of the imagination. Stanford pretty good on defense at
defending the rush, number nine in PPA allowed per rush.
That is what Notre Dame wants to do. Their number
thirty five in rush rate. Over fifty five percent of
their offensive snaps are running the football, so they're gonna
feed it to Jeremiah Love a lot along with Price.

(34:31):
Their number two in rushing explosiveness. But Stanford's defense number
twenty seven and rushing explosiveness allowed. Kind of curious about that.
So some of this game, I have no doubt that
they will be able to run the football. But I
think they're gonna have to rely on CJ. Car to
throw the football sum and he has certainly proven capable
of doing that. They're number twenty one in PPA per pass,

(34:54):
number four in yards per pass attempt, number five in QBR.
I mean, this is fantastic for a freshman quarterback. Stanford's
defense is awful against the pass one oh five and
PPA allowed per pass one oh two in yards allowed
per attempt number one oh nine and QBR allowed. I mean,
is what it is? Is what it is? Uh? Notre
Dame number nine in points per scoring opportunity, Stanford number

(35:16):
twenty seven in points allowed for scoring opportunity. So the
Stanford defense has been good. I think Stanford can slow
down Notre Dame enough. I don't know how many points
they're gonna be able to score, but if you get
to ten, can I keep Notre Dame to forty two?

(35:39):
I'm gonna go with Yeah, why not. I'll take Stanford
at home plus thirty two and a half. I mean,
this number just feels outlandish, and it feels inflated because
Notre Dame just wiped the floor with Syracuse last week.
I gotta go back the other way. Give me the
cardinal at home plus thirty two and a half. The
fighting Andrew Lux find a way to get that cover

(36:00):
Game number seven, eleven am Central Time, God's time Zone
on ABC, the Miami Hurricanes travel up north to take
on the Pitt Panthers, who ballgame gonna be in the thirties.
One of them Florida boys know about thirty degree whether
probably not a lot, I would imagine. Miami is six

(36:24):
and a half to seven point favorite on the road
total of fifty and a half to fifty one, and
Mario Cristobal has not been good at covering spreads in November.
They did not cover against Virginia Tech last week. Granted
that was by half a point. If you got the
opening line, you covered, but even still Miami one and
two against the spread on the road this season minus
four point two. Their turnover margin is really good right now,

(36:46):
number fourteen, but on the road, especially against SMU, turnovers
bid them. They certainly bid them. Miami number fifteen and
special teams of fishing Pitt is number forty Pitt the
last time that they went up in competition like this,

(37:07):
and Georgia Tech I don't believe is up in competition.
The last time they played a team this talented was
against Notre Dame and they just got the floor wiped
with them. I think Miami is certainly on the same
level as Notre Dame. Obviously they beat them head ahead,
and that was back in Week one. Teams can go

(37:27):
a myriad of different directions, because we saw Florida State
just demolish Alabama, and Alabama is a top ten team
now Florida State fighting to make a bowl game. So
you look at defensive success rate PIT number eight in
that they are really good against the run. Miami is
capable of doing any number of things. Let's start with

(37:48):
the Hurricanes on offense. Right, Hurricanes are number eight in
PPAPRI pass there are number seventy five in pp APRIL rush.
Running is what PIT hopes that they do because Pitt
is great against the runs US number six and rushing
success allowed. They are number six in yards allowed per
rush number ten and PBA per rush number three. In
offensive line yards allowed number six and stuff right allowed.

(38:11):
Miami is probably gonna have to rely on Carson Beck
and if they do that number seventy six and interceptions
thrown per pass attempt, Pitt is number nineteen in interceptions
gained per pass attempt defended. So I have the feeling
Carson Beck is going to throw the ball to the
wrong colored shirt at some point. Now, when that happens

(38:34):
in the game, who knows. You just got to hope
if you're Miami, that it's not at one of the
most crucial points of the ball game. Pitt is four
and two against the spread at home this year. By
the way, plus nine point one, they play significantly better.
They're granted. The Notre Dame game is weird for Pitt
because Nordoosey came out and said beforehand, this game means

(38:57):
nothing because if Pitt wins the game, they need some
other things to happen. But they are right there with
only one acc loss. They could be going to the
SEC championship game. You could certainly with your new quarterback,
find a way to go, get that done, get to

(39:18):
the playoff. Pitt defense is not as good against the
pass as they are against the run, but they're still
pretty good number twenty four and passing success allowed number twelve,
and havoc Miami's offense is number eight. I think Miami
has an advantage on the line's scrimmage, certainly, But can

(39:40):
Carson Beck play mistake free football? I don't know that
that's possible. On the other side of the ball, Miami's
defense really really good. This pit offense with Mason Heinchel
at quarterback. They are number twenty one in pass right.
I mean, this Kate Bell offense is serious. They throw
the football almost fifty five percent of the time, partially
because they're not good running it. Number one oh nine

(40:01):
in yards per rush, number one fourteen in rush rate
so less than forty four percent of the time, number
eighty eight, and rushing success number seventy nine and rushing
explosiveness number ninety nine on offensive line yards blah blah.
Miami's defense will crush them if they try to run
the ball a whole lot. But can they pass it?
Number forty one in PPA per pass, Miami's defense number
thirty four, number forty six in QBR, Miami's defense number nineteen,

(40:25):
passing explosiveness number thirty eight, Miami's defense number twenty two.
So Corey Heatherman, who came in from Minnesota, I think
that he can do some things with this Miami defense
and they will be able to play a tighter game
against Pitt's offense. My projected stat spread has Miami minus
seven point two four. My power rating has Miami minus

(40:47):
six point four. My last four weeks has Pit favored
by one point sixty five. There is a seven on
the board. I don't trust crystal ball, especially in November
on the road when it's cold. Second straight back to
back road game, second straight back to back, second straight

(41:08):
road game, so back to back road games for the Hurricanes,
and there is a lot of pressure here. I think
Miami feels good that if they just win the game,
they're gonna be all right. I will take Pitt to cover.
Pitt plus seven give me an interesting ballgame in Pittsburgh,
So give me the Panthers plus seven. Game number eight,

(41:31):
two thirty pm Central Time, God's time Zone on CBS,
and the Oregon Ducks are headed to the Washington Huskies.
And oh boy, you got another fun matchup with Oregon
having to go to Seattle. And we remember Dan Lanning
kind of took it out on Washington last year. This

(41:53):
one might be a little more difficult. You got two
top ten teams as far as PPA margin is concerned,
very interesting, both of them. Way slower pace of play
than you would think for these two teams when they
were in the back twelve. Both of them are fast
now number one twelve in pace of play for Washington,

(42:15):
number one seventeen for Oregon. And you're looking at Washington
number eight in PPA margin, Oregon number two in PPA margin.
The spread on this game, by the way, is Oregon
minus six and a half total of fifty one and
a half to fifty two and a half depending on
the book. Very interesting, right, very interesting looking at Let's

(42:36):
start with Oregon on offense first, number twenty two in
points for scoring opportunity, Washington's defense number twenty two in
points allowed for scoring opportunities. So both really good at
Washington good at not allowing teams to finish drives, Oregon
really good at finishing drives. Oregon way better as far

(42:56):
as field position is concerned. And on the other side,
when Oregon's on defense, way better at field position, which
is why you see Oregon number six and five factors rank,
Washington number thirty three. So that's what you're saying. So
Oregon on offense, they want to run the football. They
run it almost fifty five percent of the time offensive

(43:20):
line yards their number nine Washington's defense is number seventy.
They're number thirty one and stuff rate allowed. Washington's defense
number ninety four and stuff rate, but Washington is number
twenty one and rushing success allowed. Oregon is number two
on offense, Oregon number three in yards per rush, Washington's
defense number twenty five, so Washington may be able to

(43:41):
slow them down some. Because I also don't believe that
Washington has faced a line of scrimmage quite like this one.
Washington's defensive line is rated number sixty eight. The Oregon
offensive line is number two. Very interesting. But on the
other side, when Washington had the ball, Washington's offensive line

(44:02):
number thirty four. Oregon's defensive line number forty seven. Now
they have improved from earlier this year, but Washington interesting,
very interesting. So when Oregon's on defense, they are not
that great against the run. Demon Williams will be able
to run the football on this Oregon defense. The question

(44:25):
is how often can he do it? They are number
fourteen in rushing success Oregon number twenty four in rushing
success allowed. Oregon is number two in rushing explosiveness, Washington
number twenty four. There, so Oregon doesn't allow a ton
with that. Washington number thirty in offensive line yards, Oregon's
defensive line number twenty five in offensive lineyards allowed. Oregon

(44:47):
doesn't stuff the run, number one thirteen in stuff rate,
Washington number forty two and stuff rate allowed. You've got
a really good defense here in Oregon number five. PBA
allowed per drive, Washington's offense is number nine, Oregon's offense
number one in PPA per drive, Washington's defense number twenty eight.

(45:10):
My status projected spread has got Oregon minus eight point
twenty five. My power rating has Oregon minus six point eight,
but my last four weeks has Washington favored by four. Now,
how we got to that, since we're including a loss
at Wisconsin in this, I'm not totally certain, but I

(45:32):
do know that Oregon finds a way to win these games.
They always do. Washington has not played when they do
step up in competition, they have not looked good. And
I think that Oregon is closer to Ohio State than
maybe back to somebody that Washington was able to kind

(45:52):
of play with. Right, let's look at against the spread.
Washington four and two against the spread at home plus
ten point eight, Oregon two and two against the spread
on the Road at plus seven point five, So I
don't think that Seattle is necessarily going to mess with
them too much. I like the Ducks. I know they're

(46:16):
coming off the big win over USC Dan Lanning does
not let them get complacent, and I trust Landing more
so than I trust Jetfish. I think Jetfish could be
headed to Florida. Don't know that totally, but if Lane
ain't going to Florida, who's the next call you make.

Speaker 5 (46:39):
For me?

Speaker 1 (46:39):
It'd probably be Jetfish. Anyway, I will take Oregon to cover.
This thing is less than a touchdown. Give me the
Ducks minus six and a half. Game number nine, seven
pm Central Time, God's time zone on ESBN two. SMU
goes two Cow SMU right now a thirteen and a
half point favorite. That is up from the ten and

(47:00):
a half that had opened on Sunday fifty two and
a half to fifty three and a half. So the
total is going up a little bit. And typically in
a spot like this, you know I would take Justin
Wilcox in the points because Justin Wilcox was a beast
at covering double digit spreads as an underdog, and yet

(47:21):
here we are no Justin Wilcox they still got Jks.
I suppose, not that it's done them a whole lot
of good because they can't run the football. Nick Rolovich
is going to be the acting head coach. What does
that mean? We'll see, We'll see this cow job looks
like it's going to be a toached little poise. Who

(47:41):
is an Oregon's defensive coordinator. I mean, obviously it's still
early in that they'll figure out what they're gonna do,
but I don't think they necessarily had a plan in
place for firing Wilcox. Either way, the offense has been atrocious.
Number one fifteen in ppaper drive. And I know the
Jks is awesome, right. It's not that he's played awesome,

(48:03):
it's just you can see the potential is there for
him to develop into something fantastic, right, I mean, he's
he can be really, really good, and he has made
some absolute dime throws this year. The issue is you
gotta be consistent with it, and they are certainly trying.
I mean they're throwing the ball over sixty percent of
the time. They are number sixty five in passing success right,

(48:26):
number thirty five in passing explosiveness. SMU is number eighty
three and explosiveness allowed. They are SMU's defense number thirty
six and PPA allowed per pass, number sixty one in
yards per attempt, number forty six in QBR Well, Cal
is one hundred, number eighty eight and number eighty nine
in those metrics. Their bread and butter is made by
defending the run. They got a good defensive line, but

(48:50):
Cal runs the ball less than forty percent of the time.
I don't think they're gonna have to worry about the
run much here, so SMU is gonna have to sell
out to stop the pass. And they are pretty good
at getting interceptions, and that is not a good thing
for Cal. Cal is number eighty one and giveaways per
game SMU number one, and takeaways per game there are

(49:12):
number seventeen and interceptions gained per pasitem defended. Cal is
not awful at throwing interceptions, but my gosh, they throw
the most backbreaking, horrible interceptions you've ever seen. They also
fumble the ball a lot when they're on offense number
one oh two and fumbles loss per rush SMU is
number five and fumbles gained it per rush defended. So

(49:33):
I don't know that Cal is going to have a
lot of success trying to score on the SMU team.
When SMU has the ball, they're not great a running
the football, which is the weakness of the CAL defense.
And if they're trying to throw it, well, CAL is
pretty good at defending that, but Justin Wilcox typically is

(49:53):
the mastermind behind that defense. And as you see, I mean,
the DC role was vake. So now you've got to
come up with who the DC is going to be
and who's going to call the defense. And I don't
know who that's going to be. So SMU can't run
the football, but they can throw it. Cal had been

(50:15):
pretty good at defending the past. They're number twenty in
past success allowed, number twenty two in PBA allowed for
pass number twenty five in QB are allowed. Okay, you know,
number fifty seven in passing explosiveness. I still think SMU
is going to score some I just don't know how much.
And there's a part of me that thinks that CAL
like firing the coach right before the last game of

(50:38):
the season, especially when it was unexpected like this. Like
to be fair, Cal is six and five. They're going
to a bowl game. They're one and four against the
spread at home, by the way, they don't cover at
home for whatever reason. SMU two and three against the
spread on the road, but they like it. It was

(51:01):
very reactionary to just getting demolished by Stanford, even though
Cayl had the better success rate, and when it was
turnovers that killed them, turnovers they got returned for touchdowns.
I mean, it was a whole thing, block punt and
all that kind of stuff, which also leads to special
team sufficiency. SMU number ninety five and special team sufficiency
CAL is number seventy two, so not as much of

(51:24):
an advantage for SMU here. And yet I still think
that Cal is the team that could just fold up shop.
So I'm gonna I'm gonna bank on that. I guess
I'm not gonna bet this game. This thing opened to
ten and a half, it's out to thirteen and a
half now. My projected stat spread has SMU minus thirteen
point five four. My power rating has SMU minus ten
and a half. My last four weeks, though, has SMU

(51:46):
minus twenty seven point four one. I think SMU knows
we get this win, we're going to the SEC title game.
We win that, we're going to the playoff again. They
got a talented roster. They got dudes that find a
way to get it done at the most important times.
I'll take SMU, give me the Mustangs minus thirteen and

(52:08):
a half on the road, game number ten, six thirty
pm Central Time on nbc USC at home, they are
hosting UCLA coming off of you know, USC coming off
of a loss to Oregon that knocked him out of
the playoff and all that kind of mess. USC favored
by twenty one and a half to twenty two and
a half. Total is fifty nine and a half to

(52:31):
sixty and a half. So it's gone up at some
of the different places. This thing opened at nineteen and
a half. It's all the way out to some books.
Twenty two and a half not all that surprising. USC
has been playing better as of late, and Ucla, I mean,
this is just a corpse of a football team just
has not looked good really at all. They are two
and three against the spread on the road this year.

(52:52):
USC four and two against the spread at home plus
eight point one. So USC much better at home. Looking
at five fact rank USC number thirty nine, UCLA number
one thirty. I mean, there was that blip in the
middle of the year where it looked like UCLA had
things back on track. Notin aetymore. This team is dreadful

(53:13):
on defense, and that ain't good for you or for UCLA.
Because USC's offense is number five in PPA per drive,
UCLA's defense number one thirty one in PPA allowed per drive.
USC is gonna be able to do whatever they want
to here. I mean, it's just insane to look at

(53:33):
USC number eleven in QBR, UCLA number one eleven, USC
number four and PPA per pass UCLA number one oh
six when you're trying to run the ball. Number nineteen
in PPA per rush for USC number one thirty two
for UCLA's defense number fifteen in yards per rush, UCLA's
defense number one twenty eight. Rushing success USC is top thirty,

(53:56):
UCLA next to last. Just anything they want to do,
USC is going to be able to do it. It's
kind of a name your score kind of situation. Now,
the USC defense not great and they're not good against
the run number one twenty nine and rushing success allowed

(54:18):
UCLA is number sixty three, and rushing success rate USC
is number one eleven, and rushing explosiveness allowed UCLA is
number forty. USC is number one twenty six offensive line
yards allowed, UCLA is number sixty two, So there is
a way for UCLA to hold onto the football for
a little while. The issue that they run into so

(54:41):
USC on offense number seven in points per scoring opportunity.
That's how many points do you score on average when
you get a first down inside of the opponent forty
UCLA is number one thirty five. UCLA gives up a
ton of points. On the other side, Ucla number one
twenty one in points per scoring opportunity. The defense is
number fifty five. So I don't believe that UCLA is

(55:11):
gonna be able to put up a ton of points here.
I mean it's when you're looking at just overall offensive
points per game, UCLA is number one twenty three eighteen
point nine points per game. Their defense is number one
twenty four thirty three point six or third thirty three
point eight. Excuse me. USC is number thirteen in offensive

(55:33):
points per game at thirty seven point two. Their defense
is number sixty twenty three point five zero. I'm not
getting there. I'm not seeing I don't think UCLA can
hang around in this game. I think UCLA wrote this
season off a while ago. And USC. Yeah, losing last

(55:53):
week stung, but they also understand that they're trying to
build something there, and you're gonna have kids that are
still pushing for that ninth wind because then in the
bowl game you can get to ten wins. I think
USC names their score. My projected stat spread again, USC

(56:13):
by twenty four last four weeks is at USC by
twenty six. If this thing's under twenty four, yeah, give
me the Trojans. I'll take USC. Best number I can
get right now is minus twenty one and a half.

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Speaker 6 (57:50):
Okay, I'll give it a go if he ever takes
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Speaker 1 (58:15):
Another reminder support the show. Go check out buy meacoffee
dot com slash winning Cures or the easyurl is BETTINGCFB
dot com, but buy maya coffee dot Com slash Winning
Cures has got all of these stat sheets for every
FBS game. Of course, I will be doing them for
all the bowl games, all the Conference championship games, all
the playoff games, et cetera, along with a bunch of
randomized stats and whatnot that can help you out if

(58:38):
you're better. I've got a matchup comparison tool, et cetera,
so go ahead and check that out. Buy me a
coffee dot Com slash Winning Cures. Conference USA Action one
pm Central Time on the streamer ESPN Plus. For this one,
Western Kentucky goes to Jacksonville State and we are fighting
for a birth in the Conference USA Championship game. For

(59:02):
this one, Western Kentucky had two and a half to
three point favorite on the road total fifty four and
a half to fifty five and a half. So that
total has come down at some spots, but still a
lot of love for Western Kentucky here. Not totally sure
that I understand why. I guess you know, Tyson Hilton
is a good good coach, and they certainly put up

(59:23):
a fight against LSU last week. But man, I am
so curious what this Jacksonville State team is going to
look like. They are not great overall. I will say
that they're certainly not good against the pass, and that
is not a good matchup going against Western Kentucky. But

(59:45):
they can run the football really well. And Western Kentucky's
defense is good against the run in some cases. But
there are some things like number ten and rushing explosive
this Western Kentucky number eighty nine that'll scare you right like,
this is very interesting. Western Kentucky number twenty nine and
rushing success rate, but they are number one eighteen in

(01:00:05):
yards allowed per rush. Jacksonville State number thirteen in yards
per rush. Jacksonville State number nineteen and rushing success number
ten and rushing explosive number twenty five in offensive lineyards.
Jacksonville State can run the football and they run it
almost sixty four percent of the time. Gonna be interesting,
very interesting there. Jacksonville State number fifty three in points

(01:00:28):
per scoring opportunity. Western Kentucky's defense is number ten. Western
Kentucky also much better in special teams efficiency. They are
ranked inside the top twenty. Jacksonville State ranked outside the
top one twenty, so that should give you an idea there.
Jacksonville State through number fifteen in turnover margin, Western Kentucky
number one oh three in turnover margin. That will certainly

(01:00:52):
play a big factor in this game if Jacksonville State
is to win it. Penalties per game pretty average for both.
Number forty seven for Jacksonville State, number sixty two for
Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky throwing the football, they throw it
over fifty seven percent of the time. Number thirty in
passing success Jacksonville State's defense number eighty there, number seventy

(01:01:14):
eight m PPA allowed per pass, Western Kentucky number sixty
three in PPA per pass. Western is eight and three
overall in the season, Jacksonville State seven and four, and
Western pretty good against the spread on the road four
and one against the spread on the road plus three
point three, but Jacksonville State three and one against the

(01:01:35):
spread at home plus ten point eight. So Charles Kelly
has done a pretty good job with this team. Clinton
Tricket especially running the football, keeping kind of the same
Rich Rodriguez thing going on here. They are number eighty
eight in points per scoring opportunity. Jacksonville State in points
allowed per scoring opportunity, Western Kentucky number forty four, but

(01:01:58):
Jacksonville State doesn't allow you to get down there a
whole lot, number thirty nine. In scoring opportunities allowed per game,
Western Kentucky is number fifty. There is Western the better
football team overall? Yeah? Probably? I mean this is a
fun pace matchup, right Jacksonville State number ninety seven in
pace of play, Western Kentucky number fifteen. Jacksonville State always

(01:02:20):
finds a way to get it done at home. Way
too much love for Western Kentucky in the market right now,
especially considering what I'm looking at, which is Western by
half a point. And if you've got a coin flip
in a big time decision game, Jacksonville States has played

(01:02:41):
well enough to prove to me this year that they
are a pretty good football team. Give me the game.
Cocks at home. Best number I can get his three,
I will take it. Jacksonville State plus three at home,
six pm Central Time on ESPN. Virginia Tech goes to
Virginia and Virginia right now favored by ten to ten

(01:03:04):
and a half depending on the book total of fifty
two and a half on this one, this spread was
Virginia minus eleven and a half. The total was fifty
two and a half, and it is still sitting in
fifty two and a half. Let's look at some numbers.
I've got Virginia by fifteen and a half based on
the last four weeks of numbers, power rating Virginia minus
eleven point three projected stat spread. I've got Virginia by

(01:03:25):
two touchdowns. And yet this Wahoo's team has only beaten
Virginia Tech what twice in like a quarter of a century.
They never beat Virginia Tech. Now, typically this Virginia team
is way way worse than this, But even when they

(01:03:45):
were good under Bronco, they couldn't beat Virginia Tech. So
now Virginia Tech's got some life. They did put up
a fight against Miami. I don't feel like Miami was
ever in doubt of losing that game, per se. But yeah,
it is what it is. So okay, there's no number

(01:04:07):
that I can give you that would make you want
to bet on Virginia Tech. Here. The defense is really
bad and Virginia's offense is serviceable number fifty three in
PPA per drive On offense, they're really good running the
football number I say, really good. They're number twenty seven
in p peper rush, number thirty seven in yards per rush,

(01:04:28):
number sixty four in rushing success. But Virginia Tech is
outside the top ninety in basically everything other than yards
per rush, and they're number eighty one there. As far
as stopping the pass if Chandler Morris gets that thing going,
Tech is outside the top one ten in every category
in defensive passing. Let's look at points sports scoring opportunity.

(01:04:57):
I think that's the biggest thing. Can you finish drives
or not? Virginia number seventy one in points per scoring opportunity,
Virginia Tech number one twenty nine. Virginia number fourteen in
scoring opportunities per game, So that's when you get a
first down inside of the opponent forty Virginia Tech number
ninety seven in scoring opportunities allowed per game. Virginia will

(01:05:17):
be able to do whatever they want you here, or
at least they should theoretically. On defense, Virginia surprisingly good
this year. I don't understand. It doesn't make any sense
to me. Virginia Tech throws the ball just over forty
four percent of the time, so that also means not

(01:05:38):
a lot. And I can't find anything there that would
make any kind of sense. For I mean turnover margin
number one eleven for Virginia Tech number twenty four to
for Virginia number one thirteen in penalties per game four
Virginia Tech number thirty for the Who's I just did?

(01:06:06):
Unless Virginia Tech runs the ball insanely well, and this
is a good defense against the run, Virginia is number
nineteen in yards allowed per rush number fifty four and
rushing success allowed number twenty and rushing explosiveness allowed. Virginia
is more than serviceable stopping the run, and that's the
only thing in Virginia Tech can do on offense number
thirty two in PPA per rush number thirty one, in

(01:06:27):
yards per rush number sixteen and rushing success rate number
twenty three and rushing explosiveness number thirteen in offensive line yards,
et cetera. But they are number eighty one in standardowns PPA.
I just I'm not saying it. Tech is number sixty
eight in points per scoring opportunity, but they're number one

(01:06:47):
oh eight in drives to get inside of the opponent
forty Well, Virginia's defense is number twenty nine in points
allowed per scoring opportunity and number twenty six and scoring
opportunities allowed per game. I mean, you've got a team
that's top thirty in five factors in a team that
is number one twenty in five factors. So everybody is

(01:07:09):
betting Virginia Tech here because history would tell you you
gotta bet Virginia Tech here. And boy, it would be
hilarious for Virginia to have the best season that they've had,
maybe ever, a chance to go to the a SEC
Championship game, all that, and then Virginia Tech finds a
way to screw it all up by winning again. Even
though they're not going to a bowl game. They got

(01:07:30):
nothing to play for other than pride. Virginia is nine
and two, Virginia Tech is three and eight, and yet
you got people betting the dog like they know the
final score. I don't think I'm gonna buy it. I
gotta trust numbers here. At some point I'll take the
Who's And the best number I can get right now
is ten. I bet this thing gets down to nine

(01:07:52):
and a half or nine by game day. It is
a lot of pressure, I will say that. But Virginia
is at home I think they're going to be fine.
Give me Virginia minus ten staying in the ACC. Wake
Forest heads to Duke this one two thirty pm Central Time,
God's time Zone on the ACC Network. Duke is a

(01:08:13):
one to one and a half point favorite, depending on
the book, and the total is fifty four and a
half to fifty five and a half on this one.
And this opened at three and a half and it
has come down. Duke still has a shot a rather well,

(01:08:35):
I won't say realistic, but they got a good shot
of getting to the a SEC Championship game if a
couple of things go their way right. You also got
to win this game. This is a five lost team
right now and they could play for an AEC championship game.
That is mind blowing to me. Okay, nobody has paid

(01:08:58):
attention to the fact that wake Forest is eight and
three on the season. Wake Forest three and one against
the spread on the road this year plus six point five.
They are six and two against the spread on the
road the last two seasons. Duke is one and four
against the spread at home minus eleven point three. They

(01:09:22):
don't play well at home. They just don't. Let's start
with Duke on offense. They can throw the football. They
can absolutely throw the football. The issue that they've got
is that wake Forest is good against everything, especially against
the pass. Number three in the yards allowed per attempt,

(01:09:43):
number twelve in PPA allowed for pass, number twelve in
QBR allowed, and Duke is number twenty five at number
thirty four and number twenty three in those metrics. Duke
number twenty seven in passing success rate. Wake Forest defense
number five. This Jake Dickard defense is so serious, man.
They are number nine in defensive six that's rate allowed overall,
number five against the pass, number twenty seven against the rush.

(01:10:05):
I don't think you're going to score a lot of
points here. And the problem that Duke has is they
don't run the ball a ton, but when they do,
they typically turn it over. They are number one twenty
seven and fumbles lost per rush attempt. Wake Forest is
number four and fumbles gained per rush attempt defended. So

(01:10:27):
that is something to pay attention to. Duke runs the
ball less than forty four percent of the time, but
you're gonna have to try something different because I don't
think they're gonna be able to throw it on this
wake Force defense. We'll see points were scoring opportunity. Duke's
offense number thirty two, wake Forest defense number thirteen. I
mean this team is serious. They are really really good

(01:10:48):
on the other side of the ball. When wake Forest
has the ball, they're not very good on this side.
They are number ninety four in PPA per drive on offense,
UK's defense is number one twenty four, So the Duke
defense is atrocious, but they are more atrocious on against
the pass. Number one twenty eight in PBA allowed per pass,

(01:11:12):
number one twenty seven in yards per pass attempt. The
issue for wake Forest is they don't throw it that
much forty seven percent of the time. It's number seventy
eight in pass rate, and they're number eighty four in
interceptions thrown per pass. Duke's number forty five and interceptions
gained per pass attempt. So while they're not wake Forest

(01:11:34):
isn't good at throwing it, dukedn't good at defending it.
Wake Forest is also not very good at running the football,
number fifty six in yards per rush, number fifty six
in rush rate, number one seventeen in rushing success, number
seventy eight in rushing explosive Duke is number seventy eight
in ppa per rush number sixty one, in yards allowed
per rush number sixty eight, and rushing success allowed number

(01:11:54):
seventy three in rushing explosiveness. And when you look at
the lines of scrimmage, wake Forest number one sixteen and
I five of lineyards number one hundred and stuff rate allowed,
Duke is number twenty three and number seven in those.
Another one to pay attention to Duke number thirty six
and have a great wake Forest offensive line is number
seventy three and have it allowed. So I don't think

(01:12:16):
Wake is gonna score a bunch of points, but also
don't think they're gonna let Duke score a bunch of points.
So the fifty four and a half, that thing's gone
up to fifty five and a half I think now,
granted turnovers certainly have led to some higher scoring games,
and whatnot, what would I total be, Yeah, forty five,

(01:12:39):
so almost forty six points. I'd probably look at it
under if that thing's to fifty five and a half,
so it was three and a half, it's come down
to one and a half to one. I've got Duke
minus two point three six. My power rating has Duke
minus three. My last four weeks has wake Forest minus eleven.

(01:12:59):
If Jake Dickert wins this game, he's got nine wins.
I am shocked we have not heard his name for
other jobs because I don't think wake Forest signed him
to like some huge deal. It was kind of like
a lifeline if you want, you want to get out
of Washington State. Here, come on, we got we got
a little bit of money. Wake Forest is just a good,

(01:13:26):
well coached football team. I think they're gonna win the
game outright. So the fact that I'm getting any kind
of points here, I'll take it. Give me wake Forest
plus one and a half to win the game and
knock Duke out of the ACC contenders field last game

(01:13:46):
of the night, and of course we got to go
back out to the Islands when last time, Wyoming heads
to Hawaii, this one on Spectrum or the Mountain West
Network ten pm Central time. Of course, Hawaii is a
seven and a hal half point favorite to a nine
and a half point favorite, depending on the book. And
this thing has come down a lot total of forty

(01:14:07):
four and a half on this one total to stay
in the same But this thing opened to eleven and
a half and it's dropped down to seven and a half.
Hawaii's got a list of injuries. I can't even begin
to name them all. I mean, it's just a ton
of them. And they got demolished by UNLV last week,
just smoked. But they are still a seven and four

(01:14:31):
football team, and Wyoming just lost the opportunity to go
to a bowl game. Hawaii five and zero against the
spread at home this year. They are eleven and one
against the spread at home over the last two years.
Wyoming two and three this year, five and six over
all the last two years, minus four point nine this season,

(01:14:53):
Hawaii is plus fourteen at home. Is Michael Alohado playing? Yes,
okay cool. Hawaii throws the ball the second most in
the entire country. They threw it over sixty two percent
of the time. They are number sixty eight in QBR
number sixty six and PBA per pass number eighty eight

(01:15:13):
yards per attempt. They are number twenty nine in passing
success rate number thirty four, and have it allowed number
thirty four in passing down PPA blah blah blah blah.
Wyoming's defense the pass is the only thing they're good at.
Defending number twenty four and PPA allowed for pass number
eight in yards allowed for attempt number fifteen and QBR
allowed number twenty two, and pass rate number twenty six
and passing success rate blah blah blah. People see these

(01:15:35):
stats and they start to try and talk themselves into
this Wyoming team being able to stop the pass. You
know who else had really good passing numbers, San Diego State,
and do you know what Hawaii did to them thirty
eight to six. Wyoming has not played a real passing attack,

(01:16:01):
and it's not the Hawaii is good, I mean, they're
very serviceable. But aside from that, like what are we
talking about, Hawaii is not gonna run the football. They're
not good at it. Number one eighteen and pp April
rush points per scoring opportunity Hawaii number seventy nine, Wyoming

(01:16:22):
number eleven scoring opportunities per game. Though Hawaii number sixty
three on offense, Wyoming's defense number one hundred. Now, on
the other side, Wyoming has scored a grand total of
I want to say, ten points. It might be six.
They might have just put up a field goal on
each of the games. But against San Diego State and

(01:16:42):
against Fresno they scored nothing. I mean at ten points
in the last two games. Is not great at all,
and there's not a single number here like it's not
the Hawaii's defense is good, the number sixty eight and
PPA allowed per drive, but Wyoming is number one twenty
one in offensive PPA per drive. That's predicted point to

(01:17:05):
add it in case you don't know. So Wyoming, I'm
not expecting them to be able to score. They are
number one to twenty en points per scoring opportunity and
their number one twenty nine at getting first downs inside
the opponents forty. Hawaii number fifty six in points allowed
for scoring opportunity, Hawaiian number twenty two and special teams deficiency.
Wyoming is number one twenty four there turnover margin, both

(01:17:28):
of them are outside the top ninety five penalties per game,
both are outside the top ninety and yet Hawaii at
home just plays like such a completely different team. I
understand all the injuries, and I understand watching this team
go and just get boat raced by UNLV last week.

(01:17:48):
But you're back on the island now, we're not going
to Laramie. I think Wyoming's going to be in a
whole world heard here. They're not making a bowl game anymore.
What do you have left to play? For probably not much.

(01:18:08):
I think the number got too small. So now my
numbers would tell you Hawaii minus six for the projected
SAT spread, the power rating minus six the last four weeks,
Hawaii minus three point three. But I have not tossed
in these against the spread numbers for being at home
and Hawaii being a plus fourteen five oh against the

(01:18:33):
spread at home. I think that's worth something because you're
talking about the fact that Wyoming on average plays five
points worse on the road, Hawaii plays fourteen points better
at home. I mean you're talking about a nineteen point
difference there. I mean, this thing's just a hair over

(01:18:54):
a touchdown. Give me the Rainbow Warriors. We'll go with
the favorites. I'm good with it. Hawaii minus seven and
a half to close out the night. All right, let's
recap this sucker right quick. Wisconsin plus one and a half,
Florida State plus one and a half, Missouri minus two
and a half, Alabama minus five and a half, Northwestern
plus seven, Stanford plus thirty two and a half, Pit

(01:19:17):
plus seven, Oregon minus six and a half, SMU minus
thirteen and a half, USC minus twenty one and a half,
Jacksonville State plus three, Virginia minus ten, Wake plus one
and a half, and Hawaii minus seven and a half.
I hope you all have wonderful thanksgivings. Thank you so
much for supporting this show through this regular season. We

(01:19:37):
got the championship games coming up next week, but obviously
there's only gonna be what nine games to cover next week,
So it's gonna be interesting, very different for us on
the channel because all we do is talk about the games.
Maybe I'll dive into some of this trendy coach gossip
crap that everybody else you know, deals in, right, I'm

(01:19:59):
sure you guys would love for me to talk about
lane Keifvin we'll know an answer on Saturday. We'll have
something to talk about it, I imagine, but we'll be
that much closer to figuring out who's going to the
playoff who's not. We can start talking about hypothetical matchups
that could be fun. We might do that. You can
get all the numbers, by the way over at buy

(01:20:21):
Me a Coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. It's five
bucks a month, fifty bucks for the year, and you
can also subscribe to the channel. Got a sneeze coming
on here to close out the show. Well, better way
to close out a show for me. I mean, that's
the allergy has been a big part of my recording career.

(01:20:41):
That's the way it goes. All Right, you guys have
been absolutely awesome. Thank you again for supporting the show,
for subscribing, for liking the video. It doesn't cost you
anything to do that. It just helps me out press.
Whatever the hype button is, I've heard people talking about
that on other shows. I don't know what the hell
it is, but if it helps, I would appreciate it.
Jump in the comments, let me know your picks on

(01:21:02):
these games along with there's a whole bunch of them
that we didn't go over. You can get all the
stat sheets for those over it buy me Coffee dot com,
slash winning cures. But if you would toss me what
games you like, I gotta make some picks. I gotta
make official plays this week. I gotta dive into more
of these numbers, and I am just not seeing it

(01:21:23):
with some of them, Like these numbers are pretty sharp,
and the ones that are moving, I don't know how
much I can trust them either way. All Right, I'll
stop wasting your time. You guys are fantastic. Ah. With
that said, take care of yourself, take care of each other.
God bless college football and hopefully all of your tickets

(01:21:45):
cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe,
leave a review or comment, follow at Gary wc on
X and check out the web store.

Speaker 9 (01:21:57):
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