#31 USD/JPY: 165.00 could be hit?

Welcome back to the Wise Wealth Podcast with your host Samuel Leach, founder of Samuel & Co Trading. In this episode, we delve into the US dollar versus Japanese yen currency pair, providing a price forecast and highlighting key risks for forex traders.

With Japan's financial policy in flux, including the upcoming replacement of top currency diplomat Masato Kanda, we explore how these changes and other market dynamics influence the USD/JPY pair. From economic factors to geopolitical events, we cover it all.

We also take a closer look at technical analysis, interest rate spreads, and key levels to watch. Will the bullish trend continue? Tune in to find out and gain insights on how to navigate the complexities of the forex markets.

Don't forget to follow the Wise Wealth Podcast for more expert analysis and investment strategies. Your feedback and reviews are greatly appreciated!

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome back everybody to the Wise Wealth Podcast. I'm your host Samuel Leach,
founder of Samuel & Co Trading.
Today we're going to be talking about the US dollar against the Japanese yen
currency pair, offering a price forecast and we're going to be highlighting
the key risks to keep in mind whilst you're forex trading.
With recent developments in Japan's financial policy and market dynamics,

(00:23):
there's going to be lots for us to discuss.
So let's get started and get into the nitty-gritty.
Monitoring the markets, Japan's finance minister Tsunichi Suzuki recently stated
that he will closely monitor the stock and forex markets with vigilance.
The weak yen is pushing up import costs and affecting prices.

(00:47):
This overall is pretty much highlighting the importance of understanding the
factors that are going to be influencing the US dollar against the Japanese yen forex pair.
So when we start looking at the key points and market dynamics around this currency
one fascinating aspect of the forex market is obviously the diversity of factors

(01:07):
driving the exchange rate and overall this can range from economic growth,
employment, inflation,
geopolitics, natural disasters and even and changes in secondary policy makers.
Currently, the strength of USDJPY is influenced by the upcoming replacement
of Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda,

(01:31):
with Atsushishi Mimura at the end of this month.
Don't quote me on the names, but they are changing their top currency diplomat,
and this is obviously going to have an effect on the currency.
So Kanda had previously intervened in the Forex markets to support the Yen,
notably in Q4 of 2022 and again in April-May this year.

(01:55):
Spending over 62 billion dollars with
little lasting effect and both yourselves and me
pretty much buying up the dip on us dollar against
the japanese yen we all did it you did
it i did it and everybody else did it as canada
is now pretty much a lame duck in the policy maker space traders are speculating

(02:17):
that he may be less likely to intervene again knowing that his time is up reducing
the risk of further intervention this month and this overall opens up the doorway
of further buying on the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
So when we start looking at interest rates, interest rate spread and the bullish
trends, the spread between the benchmark US interest rate and Japan's target rate remains over 5%.

(02:42):
This will give extra strength extending the US dollar against the Japanese yen's bullish trend.
Some traders are eyeing the 1.65 level as a key area to watch before the Ministry
of Finance and the Bank of Japan might step back into the market.
So this is something to keep tabs on. So overall, we might have an extra month

(03:02):
here of just straight up buying on US dollar against the Japanese yen.
When we start looking at the technical analysis and key levels behind the US
dollar against the Japanese yen, if we look at the daily chart,
the pair has been rising within a well-defined bullish channel since mid-December.
Currently, the pair sits in the middle of that channel. If the rally continues,
we might see it reach the 165 area before hitting the top of the channel later this month.

(03:27):
In the short term, previous resistance at that 160 level may now act as support
for the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
Any non-intervention dips providing a clear
risk level for bullish traders to watch so overall
as long as price stays above this 160 level we
could see it be pushing all the way up to 165 before we actually see the japanese

(03:52):
officials jumping in and pushing the market lower so to wrap this up the upcoming
changes in japan's financial policy leadership combined with the wide interest rate
spread suggests that US dollar yen is going to basically continue its bullish trend.
However, let's just factor in it's essential to monitor key levels like 160

(04:13):
for support and 165 as a potential resistance before any intervention by Japanese policy makers.
Overall, I just want to give you a quick roundup of US dollar against the Japanese
yen, the opportunities, the risks, interest rate spread and everything else.
So thanks for tuning in to Wise World Podcast. podcast and I hope this has helped

(04:34):
you with navigating the complexities of the forex markets,
overall that is US dollar against Japanese yen make sure we click follow on
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