Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
A big weekend for the Reds, three at home against
the woeful Colorado Rockies. Meanwhile, the MLB Draft begins on Sunday,
Round one on Sunday, first couple of rounds on Sunday,
and then the rest of it on Monday. And Aaron
Layton is a guy who has joined us over the
years to talk about the draft, to talk about prospects,
(00:22):
typically when the Reds are in, like when they're in
cell mode and we have to learn about the guys
the Reds got back in return, Aaron comes on with us,
explains who the Reds got or the deadline, he'll tell
us who some of these guys are, or as he'll
do today, he'll tell us who we should want the
Reds to take this year. They draft ninth though. Overall,
first of all, it's good to have you. It's been
a while. What's going on.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
It's always fun to be back on and I like it.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
I always love being on. But it's more fun when
it's draft related. So I'm not breaking as much ad
news or any more any down times.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
This is more exciting times.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
All right, let's just start with the Reds ninth. Overall,
if the draft were to fall the way a Reds
fan once who's the player they get at nine.
Speaker 3 (01:06):
Yeah, it's funny that unlikely, but I think exactly how
they would hope for it to shake out, and it
seems like there's always something that you don't expect. I
think iv Arquette shorts out from Oregon State, that's the
pipe dream, but unlikely he falls there. And then Seth Hernandez,
especially when you just look at the way that the
Reds like to pursue arms.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
He's the top prep arm in the class.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
By a mile, and there's always a chance that one
of those two guys could fall to nine, especially with
the way teams operate him, because it's so wide open.
I think once you start to get to the back
end of the top ten, of how many different players
could go where, I think those are the two guys
that reasonably there's a pipe dream chance of one of
them falling, and they both seem to be good fits
for what the Reds may want.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
The Reds took Rhet Lauder in the first round two
years ago. He pitched in the big leagues. Last year,
they took Chase Brown's Chase Burns second overall. Last season,
he's pitched he's going to pitch the night make his
fourth big league start. Are is there a guy at
number nine that you know we could we could follow
his path and have it end up pretty quickly in Cincinnati.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
I think there's a couple of guys that fit that.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
Bill Jamie Arnold, you know, he got hit a little
bit harder left hander out of Florida State this past year.
He was a guy that a lot of people had
and I think myself included, you know, right around the
top three, maybe even some had him at number one
in the class going into this year and.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
It just didn't quite come together completely.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
But he's got some shades of Lodolo with a very
funky release that I think gives him a higher floor.
Where as long as he's around the zone, that slider
is nasty. He's gonna get week contact for the most part,
and I think you can figure out how to avoid
some of the hard contact that he ended up surrendering
late in the year because of that deception that he has.
If the strike throwing gets a little bit better, that
(02:46):
is a guy that I think could move pretty quickly,
and he seems to be a decent fit. Then he
look at a Tyler Brenner from from UC Santa Barbara,
right hander with good command, seems like a guy that
can move quite quickly as well.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
And then Liam Doyle.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
The only thing with him is the secondaries are further
behind the other two. But it's an elite fastball, good characteristics,
and a guy that you could move pretty quickly in
that regard as well. One last name that I do
want to give a shot that I think still one
of the more underrated names in the draft is Kyson Wetherspoon,
right hand or from Oklahoma. Probably the deepest bag of
pitches of the guys that I mentioned, and that might
be the guy that ends up flying quicker than anybody expected.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
There's been a strong lean in recent years the Reds
have toward college players. Would the way the draft may
unfold or is likely to unfold, suggest that they'll repeat
that with the ninth overall pick this year.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
It's fascinating because I think that the theme of this draft,
this year's high school shortstops at the top.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Right.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
You have several guys in that regard that I think
are going to go pretty early. Ethan Holidays expected to
go number one or number two. Eli willits I'd be
surprised to see him drop out of the top seven.
I think Marlin's pick at seven is the floor there,
and then Philly Carlson and Jojo Parker are both expected
to go in the top ten as well, and I
wouldn't even rule out, you know, if Billy Carlson's there,
(04:01):
the Reds may be excited enough about the tools of
a guy that just can get up to ninety seven
on the mound, could be a plus plus shortstop and
you hope the bat comes along. So I do think
this is a year where it could come down to
who you can work a deal out with see how
things shake out. But I think draft themes may get
bucked a little bit more, not just with the Reds,
but just in general with a draft like this one.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
The Reds have the fifty first overall pick, and I
promise I'm not going to do this with any other round,
but give me a name or two that is likely
to be around there that I should be paying attention to.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
I think Anthony Iinson, and I think you're hoping that
he slips there. But I also think that with the Reds,
I wouldn't rule saving a little bit of money. I
think some of the names that I mentioned, especially some
of the pitchers, you could save some money there. And
ianson the right hander from LSU put up an incredible
performance down the stretch there, and I think there's been
a little bit of that pipeline where you've just seen
those college arms, and I think even LSU at points
(04:58):
that the sec ACC you mentioned it, that they really
do like those college arms in general. But Iinsen could
be a guy that ends up moving a little bit
more quickly too, because he throws a ton of strikes,
has a good feel for the secondaries, and I think
there's more to be unlocked there in terms of the
quality of his stuff.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
That's a guy that I think is expected to go
in like the forty to forty five.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
Range, but if you save some money, you might be
able to buy him down to fifty one. Patrick Forbes
is another one where I think you're hoping you can
buy him down. That would be a little bit more
of a lofty proposition there, But the right hander from
Louisville was fantastic after coming back from injury, and that's
another guy that I could see just being a great
option for them as well.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Aaron Layton just baseball dot Com. Since you know about
prospects and you know about farm systems, I have seen
the red system described as quote sneaky good. What is
your assessment of the current makeup of the Red's farm system.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
I think it's been a great year for the Reds
farm system in general, and I do think it's sneaky good.
You've had several guys take a leap, whether it's Tector
Rodriguez really now looking like he could be a legit
corner bat for you. South Stewart just continues to hit
and doesn't get enough love, and and I'm just waiting
for him.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
To get more and more love. He cracked our top one.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
Hundred list this year, and I think he's been incredibly impressive.
Tyson Lewis, I know it's still just at the complex,
but when you're popping one hundred and eighteen mile per
hour eggs of velocities that nobody was expecting as a
high schooler from the second round, I think that's a
guy that all of a sudden has a little bit
more helium and excitement to his profile. Alfredo Duno has
done everything that you've wanted to see. I think this
is a system that is sneaky good. And you have
(06:30):
some interesting players at the lower levels that still haven't
gotten a complete chance to see yet.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
You know, I'm still excited to see what Shang and
Lynn can do.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
You've got Adam Sermanowski who's also been throwing the ball
pretty well. I think this system has gotten a lot
stronger this year, and I think it's a lot to
do just with the internal performances you know that they've had.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
We wonder and every fan of a team that's kind
of where the Reds are wonders. Number one are they
going to be in a position to quote by number two?
Is there a good fit for them? And number three
can they come up with an appropriate package to get
that player to come here? And then we start to
talk about, you know, prospects or younger players who are untouchables.
(07:12):
Are there any who fit that description in the Red
system right now?
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Like someone you wouldn't trade?
Speaker 3 (07:19):
And in general, I would, you know, I tend to
think if you can get a player with control, I
tend to be apprehensive about the untouchable, you know side
of things. I do think that you look at a
South Stewart and I just keep dreaming about a guy
that you know hits the ball so so hard. It
hasn't translated into projecting thirty home run power, but it's
a ton of doubles, and I think it's gonna play
(07:40):
really well in Grand American Ballpark, where you'll see that
that game power tick up a little bit. So that's
a guy that I'd be clutching onto a little bit
more tightly. Same with Alfredo Dunacs. The defense is looked
so solid already for a power hitting nineteen year old catcher.
Speaker 2 (07:53):
Those are two.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Guys that I just I'd be a little bit nervous
just thinking about what they could ultimately be. But if
you could get a player that makes an impact at
the big league level with a couple of years of control,
I don't think there's anybody that I'm not moving that's
still a prospect if you know, we're graduating Chase Burns
in that theory there, But I do think they have
pieces that you can move, and you know you're not
going to be eager to move them, but Chase Petty, you should.
(08:15):
Ret Louder comes back with the emergence of Burns and
with all the other arms that you've got, Petty could
be a good trade piece that has continued to show
that he can throw at the upper levels, and I
think he's worthy of some more runway at the big
league level. I think plenty of teams should be excited
to add a Chase Petty with six years of control.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Where were you on Chase Burns when the Reds took
him number two overall, because that did surprise a lot
of people.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
I honestly, it was a little skeptical as to just
whether it was the best selection at number two. I'll
be honest, and he has really impressed me. And I
think I've been able to shift that a little bit.
And you've got to be able to be fluid and
adjust your evals sometimes. And I still had him clearly,
as you know, one of the top two arms in
the class. Anybody who saw him him pitch had him there.
(08:57):
But I had a little bit of a concern about
the home run side of things. But we saw Hunter Green,
you know, have a home run issue in the minor leagues,
improve that, and we've seen Chase Burns, i think, in
large part through the minor leagues improve that in a
short stint there. And I was a little nervous about
how that would play at Great American Ballpark. But I
think that you've seen the command come along even further.
He's been locating the ball a lot effectively throughout the
(09:19):
minor leagues and this year and the field for the
changeup came along way more.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Than I would have expected it to.
Speaker 3 (09:25):
So I really think, looking back on it, you've got
to be encouraged and happy with the pick because you
don't get arms like that to sign with the Reds
very often. You're not gonna get arms of that caliber
and free agency, so this is a guy that still
could be a front line arm. I think you're going
to have those days where when he's missing over the middle,
that over the top release will result in him getting
hit a little bit, as we saw at Fenway, but
that was also a great learn moment for him. I
(09:47):
think when you've got one of the best breaking balls
like he's got and you've got to change up now
that's developed and you throw a hundred, it's gonna be
okay most of the time. And to see where the
command is progressed way more quickly than I expected, I
think it's a pick that looks a lot better are
now than it did at the time.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
Yeah, I would agree. Hopefully it looks even better after
he faces Colorado tonight. Jessbaseball dot Com is an awesome resource,
so is Aaron. I know you have a lot going on, man,
that's a busy weekend for you, so I appreciate you
squeezing us in. We'll talk soon, man, Thanks so much.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Always will make time for you, moth.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Thank you one of the absolute best, Aaron Layton, Jessbaseball
dot Com. The MLB Draft begins on Sunday. It's a
quarter to four AUDESPN fifteen thirty. Our next guest is
going to be at four to twenty. We have some
room five one three seven, four nine, fifteen thirty eight
six six seven oh two three seven seven six at
mo Egger on Twitter as well. Keith Costagan MLS Season Pass,
(10:41):
Apple TV talking FC Cincinnati versus Columbus. We'll do uh,
we'll do stupid trivia at four thirty three, Red's Rockies history,
and then we'll do some Bengals Quarterbacks history coming up
at five thirty three. We'll do upper Deck Golf in
the four o'clock hour and uh, Dirk s. Bentley in
the five o'clock More on the Reds as they get
(11:02):
said to host the Rockies this weekend. Coming up here
in just a bit, I'll tell you this sports headlines
or a service at Kelsey Chevrolet, home of lifetime power
train protection and guaranteed credit approval from their family, the
Yours for life, kelseyshev dot Com seven to ten. First
pitch Tonight, Reds and Rockies on seven hundred Wlow. Chase
Burns and Herman Mark Kez will be on the hill Tonight.
Your starting lineup for Cincinnati friedls and center McLean's and second.
(11:25):
Elie is at short Austin Hayes's and left field. Gavin
Lux DH Steers at first base. Stevenson catches the bats, seventh,
Will Benson and right field. Noelve Marte at third base.
He is batting ninth. Also tonight, the Florence Yaws are
home for Joliet. That game starts a little bit after
seven o'clock tonight, and the Hell is Real Rivalry It's
(11:46):
latest installment Tomorrow, FC Cincinnati hosting Columbus. That match could
be heard on ESPN fifteen thirty starting at seven o'clock
with pregame and kickoff at seven thirty. All right, there
you go, we are in a different ear uh of
Cincinnati Bengals football, different than last year, different than the
year before, different than the year before. That will apply
(12:07):
that to Zach Taylor's odds, the odds of him being
the first head coach fired, that coming up at four
h five on ESPN fifteen thirty Cincinnati Sports station.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
But he'suni like with Trap