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August 7, 2024 • 11 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Here it is nine first one to wether forecast gonna
be a hot and humid day to day, going up
in ninety four overnight, mostly clouds, isolated rains possible seventy
one for the loft.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Possible isolated rain tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Otherwise mostly cloudy with a high of eighty five, cooling
down to sixty seven overnight. Then Thursday we'll get mostly
sunny skies in a high of eighty seven seventy four degrees.
Right now, time for a traffic up to chuck Ingram from.

Speaker 3 (00:21):
The UCUT Tramping Center. Nearly sixty percent of Americans waiting
on an Oregon transplanterer from multicultural communities get the gift
of wife's sign up today to be an Oregon donor
east spend two seventy five crews continue to work with
an accident before you got to Hamilton Avenue. Tramping banks
to the Reagan Highway eastbound Reagan Highway is not a
good alternative, as there's an accident near Galberth that banks

(00:43):
traffic to Hamilton Avenue southbound seventy five are wreck on
the rim to eastbound two seventy five above Sharonville, Chuck
Ingram and fifty five krs the talk station.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
A thirty here fifty five KRCD talk station. It is
that time of week. I always look forward to it.
It's time for the Daniel Davis d Die, retired Lieutenant
Colonel Daniel Davis, offering his thoughts and comments about global
conflict and gee, Daniel Davis, welcome back.

Speaker 2 (01:07):
Man.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
It's too bad we have nothing to talk about today
along those lines.

Speaker 2 (01:10):
Yeah, just just kind of a boring day and nothing.
A lot of death and destruction. But I mean, other
than that, there's nothing you want on at all.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Oh, there may be World War three perhaps, I mean,
Lord Almighty, I mean, we've got our own folks saying,
you know that the attack is eminent. Israel's going to
get attacked any moment in time. We're sitting here in
the war room. We're talking about strategy. Israel's basically surrounded
right now. They're getting hit from Syria, they get hit
by the Huthies, they get hit by the the Hamas
folks in Gaza. It's just one, you know, they It

(01:39):
really is kind of a circular attack going on, limited
as it may be, and terrorist organizations funded by Iran,
but you know, Ron's a big elephant in the room,
the the ones behind all this, and now we're talking
about maybe Iran directly striking Israel itself, adding a whole
new element and dynamic to this.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
Well, you know, I think it's important though to look
at the context, because these things don't come out of nowhere.
They come out of very specific things, and just prior
to this, well, actually this back up a little bit,
because it's important. You had back in April, you had
Iran had this big, unprecedented three hundred and fifty drone
missile trike against Israel that the United States, let's see,

(02:18):
several other countries used their air force to actually knock
down most of them. The Iron Dome did its work.
But all of that came as a result of what
Israel destroyed an Iranian embassy building in another capital city
of Syria, and that prompted the response. This time, Israel
assassinated the lead negotiator for Hamas, who they were trying

(02:39):
to negotiate a ceasefire with which the United States was
strongly behind. Right, And now then they did it in Tehran,
and now then there's a risk that Iran's going to retaliate. Now,
I personally think that the fact that it didn't come
last night is indications that maybe our diplomacy, which has
been like twenty four to seven right now, starting from
the top on down, may have had a possible success

(03:03):
at pushing this off. And I don't know what kind
of deal could be struck it's going to or satisfy
Iran in this case. But that's the part of the problem,
is that if you take an action, you can expect
a counteraction, So these things don't come cost free.

Speaker 1 (03:18):
And we'll see how it plays out well. And I
hope diplomacy works. Lord knows we don't need a global
conflict breaking out, do we have? And I guess I've
always been operating and perhaps the mistake in presumption, and
this is why we have you, Daniel Davis. Do we
have a defense agreement with Israel? I know we have
pledged to help defend them. We've offered them arms and
support and diplomacy and whatever else is in our arsenal.

(03:40):
But if they were to be attacked nation state with
a flag and an army attacking Israel, that could be
considered a war, a declaration war, much in the same
way Israel hitting Iranian territory, which an embassy is considered,
and of course in Tehran, that could be viewed by
the Irans as an act of war. Eric, Oh, if

(04:00):
they end up in a shooting war between the two countries,
are we going to have boots on the ground in
Israel or anyplace else in the region.

Speaker 2 (04:07):
Now that that is the absolute number one question for
the United States right now, and just taking this thing
on the substance of it, it is absolutely, undeniably an
active war. Whether the Iranians choose to act on that
and to launch into a war is a separate question
because they have to do their own calculations of cost
benefited if we respond to this, what would you know,

(04:28):
what would be the consequence? Would we win, would we lose,
would we would it cost us even more to try,
et cetera. But part of this is their deterrent calculation,
because they think that, Okay, if we don't do something,
then Israel's going to keep on hitting this. I mean,
just imagine if any nation on the planet took out
somebody in Washington, d c. With the missile and blew

(04:50):
it up. I mean, we would lose our minds. We
would be ready to go to war later that afternoon. Well,
we're allowed to do that, but nobody else can do
it to us. Right, And to answer the second part
of your question, we do have a I'm not sure
exactly what year it started, but we have a ten
year agreement to give three point eight billion in military
aid to Israel every year. It is not a mutual

(05:12):
defense treaty. There is no Article five type like there
is in NATO. Didn't tackle on one's attack, on both etc.
There's none of that. It does not go to that level.
We just said we will help them defend themselves. And listen,
the reason why we give them that money is so
that they can protect themselves, and they can they have
the capacity to protect theirselves to fight their own war

(05:35):
should they get into one, as happened in nineteen sixty
seven nineteen seventy three. We didn't fight for them on
those cases. They fought for themselves. Now then we've given
a lot more support than they had prior to those wars.
So it is vital, in my view, vital that the
United States not get dragged into a war, because if
we get involved with something like that, it can have
all kinds of unintended consequences, not the least of which

(05:56):
is it could cause casualties to the United States and
no apparent benefit if Israel gets into a war, especially
because it takes provocative action in the capital city or
against another nation state. That's something I'm up for a
they need to handle well.

Speaker 1 (06:11):
As we pivot over to Ukraine, and you'll be able
to answer a question that I've been puzzled by with
regard to these F sixteens. That's a proxy war that
is being weighed. Ukrainians are getting funding from all kinds
of countries to fight against the Russians, and of course
the Russians would probably have a much larger advantage but
for our munitions and our arms and everything. But if

(06:31):
you look at it as a situation involving Israel, if
Israel's left the defend itself, it's certainly going to be
a proxy war with the Russians and maybe the Chinese
and the Iranians funding the weapons and the supplies to
the fighters, as well as the Huthis and the other
terrorist organizations who would similarly be attacking Israel.

Speaker 2 (06:50):
Right well, now, I'll tell you it gets even more
complicated than that. I'm glad you brought this up because
I think it's really important here in that our bad
policies in the Russia Ukraine War war, and especially with
the change. We had a couple of months back where
Biden said, you know what, you guys with Ukraine, you
can use our weapons to strike into Russia and on
Russian territory. Putin then said, then, since you're willing to

(07:13):
do that, then we'll do a mirror image, a tit
for tat kind of thing, and we'll give weapons and
animations to your enemies elsewhere in the globe. He was unspecific. Now,
just imagine if Iran, who's getting weapons to Russia that
they need for their drones, goes to war with Israel.
What are the chances that. Oh, by the way, the
former Ministry of Defense from Russia's Sergei Shoigu is in

(07:34):
Tehran right now making military deals that Russia wouldn't give
them weapons to potentially use against the United States exactly
in the area. So this web keeps getting minded because
our policies remain stupid.

Speaker 1 (07:46):
Okay, and pivoting over to stupid policies the whole situation
in Ukraine. I talked with Congressman Warren Davison just yesterday,
and he is against continuing and funding this. He says
he has been from the outset. But this whole situation,
Ukraine has been clamoring for an ass for F sixteens
now since the whole situation unfolded. And here we are
fast forward, is it has been three full years of war.

(08:07):
We're roughly give or take six eight months whatever, now
we're giving them F sixteens.

Speaker 2 (08:13):
Can you explain, well, see, here's here's the problem. Number one,
let's look at the tactical possibility. F sixteens are going
to give the ukrains a little more capacity. It will
not change anything. But secondly, these things, it's not like, okay, well,
when Russia invadi we should have given them F sixteens.
You see, it took almost a full year to even
get them to the point to where they can use

(08:34):
these things. So it's a long lead time. And I
assure you that these things. In the United States, we
spent about two years training our pilots before we let
them go into combat. Now, then these guys have had
one and even though you can say yes, but they
were already trained pilots in the mid twenty nine, et cetera.
It's a very different aircraft and it fights different. We
use the system the sixteens differently than they do use theirs.

(08:57):
So it's a whole system of systems that have to
be create on the fly. And listen when you talk
about aircraft, even if we gave them ninety over the
next year and a half, assuming the war could last
that long, which is apparently the plan, Russia has up
at one thousand, fourth and fifth generation fighters, So you're
never going to close that gaps, and so anybody who
thinks that's going to make a difference is fooling themselves.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
Well, and going back to the training, if the pilots
of the ex F sixteens we give the Ukraine have
only a year of training, I have to imagine that
the Russian pilots have a lot more training than that,
and the F sixteens might not be around very long.

Speaker 2 (09:33):
Well, there's two things, the Russian F thirty five's and
the Russian air defense system, especially the S three S
four hundred. Apparents some new S five hundreds that are
coming online now are very very potent systems, and the
Ukraine side is just not going to be able to
stand up to that. There have actually been very very
few air to air engagements. As far as I know,
there may not have been any, but if there was,

(09:55):
there's some rumors there was one. That's it. So this
is mainly an air defense system. And so when when
you get the F sixteenth in the year, the Russian
S three four five hundreds are almost certainly going to
take that out or air to air missiles from the
F thirty of the S thirty five.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
Wow, you got any good news for us today, Daniel days, Well.

Speaker 2 (10:14):
We didn't get into a war last night, so that's
a good news in the Middle East, and let's pray
that that continues.

Speaker 1 (10:20):
We will end on that positive note. Search for them online.
Just search Daniel Davis Deep Dive you find his podcast
and these types of conversations. Always enjoy the discussion, Daniel.
We'll talk next Tuesday. Stay well, my friend.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
Always my pleasure. Thanks by coming.

Speaker 1 (10:33):
Up on eight forty here fifty five krc DE talk station.
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