Daniel Davis Deep Dive - Ukraine / Russia

Episode Transcript

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a twenty minute delay out of Florence into downtown. Chuck
ingramon fifty five krc the talk station.

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Fast approaching eight thirty fifty fifth KRCD talk station. I'm
very happy Tuesday too. I'm back and I'm happy. If
you see on the rundown this morning what I got
in this morning, the return of Daniel Davis doing a
Daniel Davis deep dive here on the fifty five Krsity
Morning Show. I'm already to get a disadvantage, Daniel, because
apparently you can see me, but I'm looking at a
cartoon image of a guy behind a microphone, so I

(01:13):
have a disadvantage. But hello, and I'm waving to you
this morning. I hope you can see me. And yes,
oh there you are. Now you popped up and disappeared again,
so I think whenever you're talking, I get to see
you anyway. Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. You can search
for him online and find his podcast and interviews and discussion.
Always an interesting conversation with him when he joins a

(01:33):
fifty five KRSSEE morning show and today and perfect timing
on this because I was really looking forward to talking
with you about the situation currently unfolding between Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine has now entered Russia and in fact, as of yesterday,
has blown up three bridges in the curse oblast, which

(01:54):
oblast is a word that describes a division or region
in Russia. So they're in curse. Now what does this mean?
And does this the blowing up of bridges? I know
they can replace them with Pontoon bridges on a moment's notice.
So does this really do anything or is this actually
a success story for Ukraine.

Speaker 4 (02:11):
Well, it really depends on what Ukraine is trying to accomplish,
and that's a bit of a puzzler and a head scratcher.
And the story keeps changing, frankly, because we've had Zelenski
and since this thing unfolded, has said variously it's to
teach Russia a lesson so they have the pain of war.
He said it was to create a buffer zone. Apparently
yesterday they said it wanted exchange prisoners, they wanted to

(02:33):
improve negotiating positions, and those things are not mutually endorsement.
I mean, they don't work together. So I'm not sure
what you're trying to do if you're trying to improve
negotiating position, but then you're losing in the East. And
that's the biggest issue here is that Ukraine they definitely
caught Russia with their pants down. That Russia did not
expect an occursion into their country. They had then border

(02:55):
units that were controlling the border because they just didn't
think Ukraine would do this, and so Ukraine again surprised
Russia by amassing a large number of troops, which they
deceived Russian to thinking they were actually going to be
defensive troops for a Russian incursion in the Sumi area,
which is not far from there, but it turned out
they didn't and they use those then to attack into Russia.

(03:16):
So now they've carved out this relatively large area, but
it's only three percent of the region of course, the
oblast you referred to. But the big problem is it's
come at the expense of what the Ukraine side is
trying to hold on to in the east, and the
Russian has not redeployed, according to most reports, at least
sizeable numbers from that area to try and stop the

(03:38):
Kurse area.

Speaker 1 (03:38):
They've used other troops.

Speaker 4 (03:40):
Meanwhile, they've continued, especially in a place called Pokrosk and Turetsk,
They've continued to press on and they have it withdrawn
their pressure now that Ukraine doesn't have a lot of
troops or equipment to defend that, so they're starting to
lose more.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
So I'm not sure this is going to work out
good for Ukraine.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
Well, let me assist. Does this cause any supply chain
problems for the Russians. I mean, they got the troops
obviously in Ukraine and physical presence, they're gonna have to
hold the land that they've taken, which requires an ongoing
presence of troops. Correct me at any point if I'm
wrong on military strategy on this, But I mean, you
can roll through a city and say you took it
over and I grabbed their flag, But if you move out,
you're not there anymore. I kind of view that as

(04:19):
back in the hands of the Ukrainian So does this
thin out the available Russian troops to continue to advance,
and does it stop supply lines from being refilled and
supplies from being reaching the Russian troops.

Speaker 4 (04:31):
Actually it works the opposite direction, really, and in the
disadvantage of Ukraine for nearly the same reasons you just mentioned.
It's one thing to make an occursion into a Russian territory,
but it's a very different thing to hold that terrain.
So if you make this big penetration, which they have,
and then here in four or five, six weeks, they
end up being pushed out, and because Russia just has

(04:54):
more forces up in that area, then I'm not sure
what they've gained. And the only saying that it appears
in terms of logistics, is that it's it is. There's
a through a city called Druze, but I think it's
called or Suja.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
I'm sorry. Suja. Is that the the.

Speaker 4 (05:10):
Gas lines from Russia to Europe run through there, which
gives Ukraine control over them, although there's bypassed routes. But
in terms of supply for the rest of the war,
especially in the East, it's almost irrelevant. Doesn't even have
any that it comes from elsewhere in Russia, So those
supply lines are unchanged for Russia in the east, in
the Pokrowskin Touretsk area.

Speaker 1 (05:32):
How are the Russians doing in terms of troops.

Speaker 2 (05:34):
I know we've talked before about there's only a finite
number of human beings that are capable to fight, and
they've they're blowing through all the younger men. I presume
those are the casualties of war. And I hear the
Russians are running around looking at all the four corners
of the world trying to find Russian guys to you know,
conscript and join the military. They're not at risk of

(05:54):
running out of warm bodies, are they the Russians? No, No,
they're not at all.

Speaker 4 (06:00):
Russia's going to do everything they can to get as
many volunteers as they can get, or that they can
scrape somewhere else without having to have a mobilization. That's
in their interest to do so, and they have done it.
They've been fairly successful, according to reports, anywhere from thirty
to forty thousand per month in any given month. But
obviously the much bigger issue is on the Ukrainian side,

(06:20):
which doesn't have anywhere near the manpower pool from which
to draw, and they are definitely in the fully coerced
to mobilization mode. And I don't know if you've been
able to see, but there is a lot of consternation
within Ukraine. And now some of the recruiters themselves are
being attacked by the people who feel that if they
come and grab them, it's basically a death sentence, and

(06:42):
so they don't want to go to the fight.

Speaker 2 (06:44):
But once they get there, they are fighting. So I
do give them credit for that, but it is a
big issue, and they just don't.

Speaker 1 (06:51):
Have enough troops to match Russia.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
I mean, is this going to be just has this
come down to simple battle of attrition that it's a
foregone conclusion Russia can win.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
That's exactly how I view it.

Speaker 4 (07:02):
Is a foregone conclusion, because whether you talk about manpower, missiles,
artillery shells, the ability to create weapons to to get them.
I mean, Russia has almost four times more than the
cumulative West has. All of together, we can't match what
Russia is making with North Korea and Iran is their

(07:23):
allies and what they can produce domestically. And then you
add somewhere between twelve to fifteen million more men from
which to draw for potential troops, and you just see
that there is no rational path for Ukraine to even
hold the line, much less to ever win.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
Well, what of our members of Congress who want to
continue to throw billions and billions of dollars If it's
a foregone conclusion. And I have to assume that you
know you obviously you served America honorably and our knowledge
what about matters military and strategy. We have to have
similarly versed folks within America's military that can see and
perhaps have reached the same conclusion that you have. This

(08:01):
is a foregone conclusion about electric that Russia is most
certainly going to win if they just stick it out
long enough. Is that a wake up call to people
who keep thinking that somehow Ukraine is going to prevail
on this.

Speaker 1 (08:12):
I just I don't see there's no wake up call coming.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
I mean, I had hoped that that would be the
case after last year's offensive. The Ukrainian offensive in twenty
twenty three utterly failed, I mean to even break through
the first of five defensive lines of Russia.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
I thought that would be the wake up call. It wasn't.

Speaker 4 (08:28):
And then you see Lindsey Graham who continue to embarrass
himself in our country by cheerleading what the Ukraine's doing
here because he's going to quote kick you Putin's ass
and all this kind of stuff, talking like a schoolyard
kid with no concept at all of the fundamentals involved
here in how by continuing to do that, all you're
going to do is get more Ukrainian men killed and

(08:48):
probably lose even more territory. There are many calls in
Russia right now to say we don't want to just
take the four old blast that we have illegally annexed.
They want the whole country now. And whether that's going
to be possible or not, it remains to be seen.

Speaker 1 (09:02):
It has to be done.

Speaker 4 (09:02):
But Russia does have the manpower and the equipment to
make good on it, even if it takes another year
or two or three or whatever. They seem willing to
pay that price. And I just don't think this is
going to work out good. And I don't want people
to forget what people like Lindsey Graham, who are blind
to these realities when.

Speaker 1 (09:19):
They're cheerleading this going on.

Speaker 4 (09:21):
When we could have a negotiated settlement so Ukraine could
keep land, that's not happening. And that's why I'm so
upset when I hear comments like Lindsay Graham's.

Speaker 2 (09:28):
Yeah, and that you anticipated where I wanted to go,
which is okay, fine. Maybe Ukraine did this to show that,
you know, Russia does have some vulnerabilities. They couldn't hold
their own line, but maybe this opens up an opportunity
to discuss peace on and negotiates some sort of resolution.
I haven't heard those words really talked about with any
level of seriousness now for quite some time.

Speaker 4 (09:49):
Well see now that's why I say at the open
of your show here that there's some conflicting images and
words coming out of Zelensky because his chief negotiator I'm sorry,
Chief aid Yermak said, and I guess three days ago
that this was to improve our negotiating position, so Russia
can has to negotiate from a position from our strength,
from our side, so that they know. Which is insane

(10:11):
that because Russia got poked in the in the chest
with this three percent of one oh bleasted, suddenly after
two years are going to quit with all these advantages.

Speaker 1 (10:19):
That's absurd, But that's one of the things they're saying.

Speaker 4 (10:21):
But there's no evidence that they're going to actually do
that to have a negotiate seldom because they could do
it right now. They don't need to have negotiation Selim
because Putin has been saying from the beginning he's willing
to do that. But every day you delay Brian that
he is less and less willing to negotiate, and may
say I'm just going to solve this on the battlefield.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
That's my biggest worry for the people in Ukraine. Understood,
And I just have to ask this question before we
part company. Daniel Davis search from online Daniel davisteep dive.
You'd be glad you did. What do we learn from this?
We have one of the largest militaries in the entire planet.
The Russians and you know, obviously well stocked with supplies
from you know, rifles to nuclear way them. They have

(11:00):
a large military, enough men you just mentioned, they have
sufficient people to continue to wage this war. The land
mass that we're talking about here, we're not talking about
a country the size of the United States or the
size of China. I mean, this is a comparatively small
chunk of land.

Speaker 1 (11:16):
And yet here we are, how many years after the.

Speaker 2 (11:19):
Invasion, that there's still a fight going on, that this,
this this small swath of the globe has not yet
been overrun by the one of the world's largest, most
powerful militaries.

Speaker 1 (11:30):
I just kind of scratched my head over that. I
don't know why.

Speaker 2 (11:32):
It takes me over to a Feedo Castro fighting Batista
from the mountains. You have an army versus some ragtag
guys with an attitude, the ragtag guys in the attitude one.

Speaker 1 (11:42):
I mean, well, yeah, that's that certainly has been the case.

Speaker 4 (11:45):
I mean, you could even go to Taliban in Afghanistan,
it's even more appropriate analogy.

Speaker 1 (11:51):
But this is different.

Speaker 4 (11:51):
This is not just insurgents running around in the in
the jungles or in the mountains of Afghanistan. But it's
an army, and armies have different fundamentals, and the fundamentals
just don't make it work out for the little guy
over time. It's a big question is why Russia hasn't
used its power in larger ways up to this point.
It's a head scratcher to me because I don't see

(12:12):
an easy answer.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
But they have it, and they.

Speaker 4 (12:15):
Are methodically employing it, and even though it takes longer
than we would think it should, it is still happening
fair enough.

Speaker 2 (12:21):
Appreciate your thoughtful analysis as always, Daniel Davis search from
online again Daniel Davis, Steve Dive. This podcast to be
on my page fifty five cars dot com until next week, sir,
have a great week.

Speaker 1 (12:31):
Great see you next time.

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