Money Monday with Brian James

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's Doge digging out?

Speaker 2 (00:01):
We're talking about fraud, waste abuse.

Speaker 3 (00:04):
CHET can't often for the latest. Fifty five krc D
Talk Station eight oh five fifty five r c E
Talk Station. Very Happy Monday to you. I always enjoy this.

Speaker 4 (00:16):
Time of the hour, eight o'clock on Mondays because we
get to hear from all our financials Brian James and
deal with money Monday, Brian James, Welcome back to the
morning show, and Happy Monday to you, sir. Hope you
had a wonderful weekend.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Good morning, Brian Thomas, back at you, and hope you're
doing well as well.

Speaker 4 (00:31):
I am doing great, other than the general frustrations of
the political landscape and all the other topics got to
deal with every day, most of which I have no
control over. But before we get into the topics you have,
I just wanted to know because I remember Nathan Backrack
and I think, oh, I know, you know. They created
what they called, I believe, the greased Palm Index, and
they tracked the lobbying dollars the more the lobbying money

(00:55):
was spent, and they put it into a particular fund.
So the big contributors to political campaigns ones with the
most lobbying dollars were putting funds to track them to
see if they grew at a faster rate than say,
other index funds, which I thought was kind of a
brilliant thing. I don't know how I ended up working out,
but I wanted to know along those same lines, is

(01:17):
there a military industrial complex index like where you got
all the defense contractors put in one single fund, because
it seems to me those guys are probably doing pretty well.

Speaker 2 (01:29):
Yeah, that's a great observation, and yeah, I'm sure there is.
That's not something I pay attention to directly, but I
can guarantee you that there is somebody out there that
has built a pile of investments around any idea that
anyone might might assume is getting a lot of money
thrown at it.

Speaker 5 (01:44):
So there are all kinds.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Of investment products that focus on industries and things like that.

Speaker 5 (01:48):
And as you mentioned, yeah, I'm not sure whatever happened
to it either.

Speaker 2 (01:51):
Maybe they don't pay attention as much anymore now that
they're retired. Yeah, yes, I do recall the idea behind
let's go follow who gets money thrown at them and
in those different areas, And yeah, of course, anytime there
is spending, there's going to be an equal and opposite
reaction in the investment underlying value.

Speaker 4 (02:07):
No doubt about it. All right, let us move over
to the topics you actually present it to me. Appreciate
you indulging me on that. Though first quarter GDP growth
looks like, according to CNBC, on track for negative growth.

Speaker 5 (02:19):
Well go figure.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
When you add a bunch of costs in things in
terms of tariffs, and we start to get the talking
heads and the projections coming out, we're starting to see
the possibility of negative growth predictions. So Atlanta FED is
now predicting that we're going to see the GDP shrink
by about one and a half percent here in the
first quarter of twenty twenty five. They're kind of known

(02:41):
for this. This particular tracker is always leans toward the
volatility side, and it usually becomes a little clearer later
in the quarter. But still this is just kind of
a warning of what shouldn't be too shocking. Even the
President himself came out and said there could be some
pain here on the front end as they implement the
things that they want to do. So where this is
coming from, consumers spent a little less than expected in January,

(03:03):
and that led to a downgrade and growth predictions in
the GDP. Exports dropped a bit too, and some other
places as well. We've all heard about the egg prices
and inflation popping up in certain places too. But yeah,
this is all coming together to make it look like
it could be a bumpy first Quarterbran.

Speaker 4 (03:19):
Well, you know, I have to observe. When people's extra money,
to the extent they have any disposable income, is being
sucked up by increased property taxes and increase energy bills,
you're not going to be participating in the economy and
keeping our consumption economy going.

Speaker 2 (03:34):
Yeah, that's true. It all plays together. All the puzzle
piece has got to fit one way or another. So
there's a lot of impacts here coming from a bunch
of different directions, just all the data we have now,
and we have a new administration that is shaping data
and looking at it differently. They even saw a reference
to the possibility that they may split out government spending from.

Speaker 5 (03:54):
The GDP calculation. Yeah, purportedly to.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Get shine a little a brighter light on where the
money comes from and where it all goes. But that's
going to be yet another indicator we all have to
pay attention to when people are still struggling to understand
the ones that come out every day.

Speaker 4 (04:08):
Now, I would love to know that figure. I'm surprised
that hasn't been done yet.

Speaker 2 (04:13):
I think it gets done, it just doesn't get broadcast.
We talk about GDP every quarter. I mean, there are
websites out there. All this stuff is freely available to
anybody who wants to dig it out, but the media
doesn't pick up on that. We like our simple bullet
points and our soundbites and things, and that's always been
what is the GDP as opposed to all the different
derivatives of the GDP.

Speaker 5 (04:32):
So, yeah, those numbers are out there.

Speaker 2 (04:33):
It would be good to see how much of our
GDP purportedly is grown by actual little government spending, so
that we know what the impact is going to be
when we choose not to spend that way anymore.

Speaker 4 (04:44):
Well, I know, but I mean you think about like
the green industrial complex as I called it earlier, that
is basically fully supported by the government and government spending.
I mean a lot of these companies wouldn't even exist
but for the government and fusion of our taxpayer dollars.

Speaker 5 (05:00):
Yeah, there's a lot of there's a lot of that
out there.

Speaker 2 (05:02):
Matter of fact, some of your largest companies, your your
sexiest stories of the last decade have come with a
lot of government investment and our you know, our President
in chief, Elon Musk, is no stranger to that. A
lot of the dollars that went into Tesla came from
the same came from those same green budgets as well
as heaving those that SpaceX has taken a lot of
dollars from the federal government because they do a lot

(05:23):
of things that NASA used to do.

Speaker 4 (05:25):
Yeah, but more efficiently.

Speaker 5 (05:28):
That's true. That's true.

Speaker 2 (05:29):
So there is a negative thing, but it's something we've
never paid attention to before.

Speaker 4 (05:33):
To your point earlier, Yeah, those astronauts are still stranded
up in space too. I must observe on that or not.
Not a comical note. I feel sorry for those folks,
but if you can't do it yourself, you've got to
rely on outsourced companies and maybe do it more efficiently. Anyhow, Now,
in terms of the first quarter being on track for
negative GDP growth, is that an indication that the Fed

(05:54):
might lower interest rates?

Speaker 2 (05:56):
Could be but not the other thing the FED has
to worry about is we want to keep the economy running,
but we also have to worry about inflation.

Speaker 5 (06:03):
That's really the Fed's job, those two things.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
Let's make sure everybody has a job, and let's make
sure inflation is under control when you really boil it down.

Speaker 5 (06:09):
That's the goal.

Speaker 2 (06:10):
So when we're talking about inflation being a factor in
all this in the slowdown, that does not indicate that
we're going to see further rate cuts anytime soon. And
I would say we're I don't think that has changed
in the past several weeks because inflation really is it's
very sensitive right now. It's not going to take much
of an impact of anything, as we've already seen to
drive prices back up where we were a few years ago.

(06:32):
So I don't think we're at a point yet where
we're on the brink of that happening. But we're also
definitely not an environment where we're going to see a
rate cut tomorrow.

Speaker 4 (06:39):
Well other than the real estate market, because if you
lower the interest rates and it has an impact on
the current real estate interest rate, how else is the
interest rate from the FED? How does that impact inflation?
Generally speaking?

Speaker 2 (06:55):
Well, any cost of anything has to do with what
does it cost to produce that good or service it
and to begin with So if there's a company out
there that has borrowed money to pay its employees, to
build its factories, to do whatever it needs to do,
then that is a factor that's that will ultimately trickle through.
Everything trickles down to the consumers. So you have the
producers and the consumers. The consumer's got to pay the bills,

(07:16):
including all the taxes. No different than if your property
taxes go up and you're renting an apartment. You won't
think that, hey, I got to pay a bigger property
tax bill. No, you don't have a property tax bill,
but your rent's going to go up because your landlord's
going to take it from you. That's the same thing
that happens to every consumer in every corner of the
world everywhere, because all those costs get passed down. So
that's where the impact will be seen and you have

(07:37):
to look closely to see it sometimes.

Speaker 4 (07:39):
All right, fair enough, Well, I take an early break
here because we want to talk about food prices and inflation,
which I think has to tie in with the next
topic we'll do in the next segment, which is expect
restaurant bankruptcies. So we've seen quite a few of those lates.
So let's pause a little bit early. We'll bring back
Brian James and talk about those. After I mentioned my
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Speaker 1 (09:21):
Fifty five KRC a.

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U line they know first hand.

Speaker 4 (09:26):
Eight eighteen fifty five KRCD talk station. A very happy
Monday too. You go here from the since Anava coming
up for our KRC Care segment at eight forty In
the meantime, all were financials Brian James offering his insights
on money Monday, and sadly something I'm painfully aware of.
I do go grocery shopping every week with my wife,
and food prices have gone up precipitously, and most notably,

(09:46):
I just look at the price of beef quite often.
I'll just pick up a package just to see where
it is in terms of how much price per pound
and then put it back down to the beat section
just because it's just like I just it's mind blowing eggs.
Of course, we can blame bird flu for that. I mean,
there's no I don't think there's a relationship with the
price of eggs and inflation more so than they've just

(10:07):
been slaughtering all the chickens because of bird flu. But
what's the story from Walmart's CEO on food prices.

Speaker 5 (10:14):
Doug mc millan's not in a good mood this morning.

Speaker 2 (10:16):
So he's the CEO of Walmart, and he's highlighting that
strain that's coming up on American consumers due to this.
So yeah, we're not shocked at this. I even paying
attention to the headlines at all. It's been hard to avoid,
whichever side of it you're on, it's been hard to
avoid the discussion about egg prices. But Doug, who is
paying attention, of course to how much money his company
is making, as that is his job, is seeing he's
a good predictor of what people are doing there at

(10:39):
the cash register there.

Speaker 5 (10:40):
So we're seeing impact on things.

Speaker 2 (10:42):
Like beef and eggs, non alcoholic beverages, sugar and sweets.
Sugar is up almost six and a half percent. We're
seeing non alcoholic beverages up about four percent, a beef
and veal we're looking at to be up about three percent.

Speaker 5 (10:54):
Now, these are all facts.

Speaker 2 (10:55):
And when we can find these anywhere, I think it's
more impactful at least worth talking about.

Speaker 5 (10:59):
Brian to what should somebody do about this?

Speaker 2 (11:03):
This question comes up all the time and in the
course of my day as a financial planner, people want
to know, is it time for me to worry about this?

Speaker 5 (11:10):
What should I be doing about this? Inflation I keep
hearing about.

Speaker 2 (11:12):
My question is always okay, what were you spending on
all of these items before? Then we can figure out
what the impact is going to be. And most of
the time, and this is a necessarily bad thing, most
of the time people have no idea because we've not
kept budgets.

Speaker 5 (11:26):
We don't know where we are.

Speaker 2 (11:27):
So that's a great first step is to understand where
your money's going in the first place, so that you
can model out some impact and figure out whether you
really need to worry about this or just be mad
at the cash register.

Speaker 4 (11:38):
Well, I guess part of me. I want to react
by saying, Okay, I'm glad sugary beverages are more expensive,
and I'm glad people are buying fewer of them because
that's a discretionary item. You don't need mountain dew in
your life, right, I mean, I'm kind of been on
a sugar tear of late. But in the final analysis,
if you need nutrition to stay alive, you need certain calories.

(12:00):
Hopefully your calories are coming from something that's good for you.
But rather than buying mountain dew, maybe you just drink
a glass of water. Is your life going to be
really impacted to the negative for that, No, I would
say it's going to be a positive result. I don't
know if that's baked into this cake, if that's by
design or intention, but you know, maybe it'll force people
to make more responsible choices because your dollar is not

(12:20):
going as far at the grocery store.

Speaker 2 (12:23):
Yeah, and we will see that impact. We've seen that
happen before when we've had price bikes. People do tend
to change their behavior, and I personally, I don't believe
this is part of any engineered a change of behavior
by any administration. It's just I think we've got an
administration that truly just cares about's let's make this country
as successful from a commercial and business standpoint as it

(12:43):
possibly can, and they're making decisions to move us in
that direction. These are again not designed results, but it's
just simply what's happening.

Speaker 5 (12:51):
I agree with you.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
If people bought less sugar and less and less stuff
like that, we're probably in a better spot. But the
fact that we're seeing inflation increasing on those indicates that
and maybe rising the companies. Companies may be buying more.
It's not necessarily people buying bags of sugar. It could
be companies buying it more at a commodity level and
because they feel like that's where they can make their profits.

Speaker 4 (13:12):
Fair enough. On that, I got a kick out of
his observation that you see people are buying smaller pack
sizes than they used to, but with shrinkflation, they were
doing that anyway, even if they wanted the family sized bag.
The family size bag now only contains twelve ounces where
it used to contain eighteen ounces or something along those lines.
I just thought that was an interesting comment, given that

(13:32):
we all lived through shrinkflation.

Speaker 5 (13:35):
Right, Yeah, and it is.

Speaker 2 (13:36):
That's another cycle that we see too, when it's harder
for companies to make money off of off of the
original sizes and things that they were making. One way,
and they know they can't push the button and sell more.
Another way can be to make it cheaper to sell
the same amount by putting smaller projects inside smaller products,
inside little packages that they won't notice.

Speaker 4 (13:56):
I remember a commercial about that, the guy that saved
the company one hundred million dollars a year by taking
like one olive out of the olive jar, you know.

Speaker 2 (14:05):
Yeah, and airlines make their take the tomatoes off of
their off of their rubber chicken sandwiches and saved billions
of dollars. Yeah, yeah, it does add up. It does
does make sense in the long run. Every little bit counts,
all right. Pivoting over to restaurants, and I've observed this also.
Carry out has gotten really expensive compared to not that
long ago. Even it's an Asian restaurant, and I don't

(14:27):
think there was a single entree that was less than
like twenty two dollars. And we're talking about just standard
you know, Chinese food kind of orders and that that
is just like mind blowing to me. But that's the
direction that's gone. But more and more are going bankrupt too. Yeah,
we're seeing that bankruptcy is coming out of but a
lot of these are older names, so it's not I

(14:48):
don't think we're yet at a point where all of
it is totally their fault of inflation and so forth.
These are things that have kind of run their course.
So the big one, big ones we've seen recently, TGI, Fridays, Any's, Ruby, Tuesday,
Red Lobster, all of them have filed for bankruptcy protection.
Hooters hit the headlines as of this morning. Their food
sucked though exactly. You know, the only thing that I

(15:11):
ever liked about Hooters They're mild sauce with it was
a jar of death.

Speaker 5 (15:14):
But it was really good.

Speaker 2 (15:15):
Oh, I think you're got to say good buffalo sauce
with butter in it, which is, you know, good in
the long run, but not so much of the schwartz.

Speaker 4 (15:21):
So it had nothing to do with the wait staff.

Speaker 6 (15:24):
Now this is off the shelf and Kroger I still
get it with Yes, they out of trouble, right, James,
Well you know this this could be I mean, I
understand the COVID they required to borrow money to stay open,
and they got you know, debt service on that. I mean,
I note the article says this meant companies accumulated debt

(15:44):
they had to pay back over time plus interest. Someone
wrote us government right next to that.

Speaker 4 (15:48):
Oh right, that was me. But there's more competition out there,
and there are better products. Going back to Hooters. If
you can go someplace down the street that has superior
chicken wings, then you're going to go there, right, And that's.

Speaker 2 (16:03):
That's what I was hinting at before with these these
are older chains. Restaurants do run their courses, and there
are some icons that never go away. But if you
just look over time, there aren't any restaurants that have
been aside from these you know, ridiculously long family owned
type stories that have been in existence for one hundred
hundred and fifty years. It generally doesn't work that way.
They last a few decades at most. That's a huge

(16:23):
success story, but eventually people's taste change something if things
feel dated, TGI Fridays and Applebee's, which doesn't exist anymore,
I don't think. But anyway, they've all kind of run
the course and become the butt of jokes after ten
years it's very easy for consumers to change their minds
and go somewhere else.

Speaker 4 (16:39):
Yeah, and the quality can go down as well, frishes
and we end up losing our frishes locally. All right,
let's pause. We'll bring Brien James back for one more
talk about four oh one k balances. Which direction are
they going? Stick around you? Right back?

Speaker 1 (16:51):
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Chuck Ingram on fifty five KRC the talk station.

Speaker 4 (17:53):
Eight twenty eight come to an eight twenty nine at
fifty five KERCD talk station, A very happy Monday to you,
Frien Thomas with more segment with money Monday's Brian James
moving over to four oh one K balance is something
he knows all about since he's an ancial planner. That's
what it is all about. Hopefully everybody's investments are going well.
Which direction are we going in four oh one K
balances because the market seems to have been doing pretty

(18:14):
well late now they've.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
Been going up and yeah, that's it shouldn't be too
big of a shock.

Speaker 5 (18:18):
The market is the market usually goes up and not down.

Speaker 2 (18:21):
And we've seen, you know, the market hit an all
time high in December and it's touched that twice once
in January once in February, So the average balance for
a four toh one K retirement accounts about one hundred
and thirty one thousand dollars. That's the second highest average
we've had on Revered on record, So that's a good thing.

Speaker 5 (18:37):
But that does happen when the economy is going okay.

Speaker 2 (18:39):
There's a lot of scary headlines out there, but underneath
that are a lot of people who are doing okay
and making it through. And actually contributions are up too,
So we've seen a we've seen a large amount of
people putting more and more four oh one K dollars
in and that's represented in the fact that we're seeing
these balances go up. So when the economy is doing
ok hey, people will put more money in. When people

(19:02):
start to slow down on their contributions, that can be
an indicator as well, because they're needing to kind of
pinch pennies a little bit.

Speaker 4 (19:07):
Well, and I don't know how you Reckon saw more
people putting away more money in a four h one
K plan. When we talked about the other topics, which
is inflation is soaking up a lot more dollars at
least in terms of the grocery prices.

Speaker 2 (19:21):
Yeah, fair point, But that's what I was hinting at before.

Speaker 5 (19:24):
There are a lot of people out there who were
doing just fine.

Speaker 2 (19:28):
We're in an economy, Brian, where we were in a
country where we worry about the profit margin of our
public traded companies. There are a lot of people who
get hurt by that. There are a lot of people
who make a lot of money off of it. I'm
not here towag in on whether that's good or bad.
But if you're somebody who's got the ability to put
away more money than you spend every month, then you've
been in a great environment really for the last several years.

(19:48):
And I would say even prior to that. We had
twenty twenty two, which was one of the five worst
years we've ever had in the stock market, but there's
been a lot of years where it's been a lot
better than that, And so that's why we're seeing these balances,
highest average balances we've ever seen, meaning people are putting
it in and.

Speaker 5 (20:04):
Allowing it to grow and not relying on it.

Speaker 2 (20:06):
The average contribution nowadays is about fourteen percent, which really
that's an eye popping number, and I want to read
a little more into that to see where that came from.
But that's what's being highlighted here in the article.

Speaker 4 (20:17):
Well, as every good financial planner, I'll tell you should
at least put something in it for no other reason
then to make sure you get if you have one,
the employer match. I mean, that's just sound financial planning
right there.

Speaker 2 (20:28):
Yeah, absolutely, that's free money that's sitting there on the
table waiting for you to take it.

Speaker 5 (20:31):
Now.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
Of course, you have to make sure that you can
pay your bills. None of this matters if you can't
pay your bills. If you're running up credit card bills
in for the sake of building up your four O
one K, in the end, that's going to balance out
and kind of work against you.

Speaker 5 (20:44):
So it all comes down to budgeting.

Speaker 2 (20:46):
And as I've been teaching my kids and their friends
as it has come up, you have got to find
your way to get yourself in a situation where you
can spend less than you make. Do that for thirty
five forty years and you'll be just fine, regardless of
what the headline. And that's true for everybody as of
right now as well.

Speaker 4 (21:02):
My wife and I've been trying to do that since
when we first met. I think it's in my West
Side genetics to spend less than we make. Just searching
everywhere whenever you can save some money, even if it's
just a small amount, all that adds up over the
long haul. I mean, it really is. I remember just
struggling with the reality when we were living in Chicago.
You know, we had a budget for our house, and

(21:24):
I've talked about the interest rates and you know, the
balloon mortgage we had to get. But we bought a
comparatively modest home compared to what my peers at the
law firm were buying. And I was just sort of
just in amazement at you know, they felt the need
to buy this huge monstrosity of a home. And I
just like, I'm thinking to myself, why all the resources

(21:47):
you got are going into your home. You become house poor,
And that to me is the ultimate, you know, of
financial sin from my perspective. Anyway, Yeah, I've.

Speaker 2 (21:56):
Got a similar story there too, related to housing. So
we moved into a house in the early two thousands,
and it would have been you know, normally probably your
second home, and you know, then you kind of graduated
one little more space, want a bigger house or whatever.
But we got lucky and landed in a neighborhood with
a bunch of absolutely fun, wonderful people, and none of
us have ever left.

Speaker 5 (22:13):
So that occurred to me.

Speaker 2 (22:14):
As I've done financial plans for my clients. A lot
of times, I'm seeing mortgages where they bought a house
in their late forties early fifties, presumably for that reason,
got bored, wanted different change of scenery.

Speaker 5 (22:24):
I didn't do that, and.

Speaker 2 (22:25):
I'm realizing now that our house is almost paid off
and I'm not going to have that mortgage hanging over
my head. And that's the reason. It had nothing to
do with a conscious decision. It just worked out, But
it had to do with the fact that we simply
didn't have the desire to move because of the people
that were around us. That not everybody has that fortunate situation.
But there is a very very mathematical impact to not
having a mortgage for the rest of your retirement.

Speaker 4 (22:47):
Amen into that, and Acto I pointed out earlier in
my psychologically speaking, not having a mortgage was always just
critical to me because I can't stand the concept of
owing money. I just I just can't stand it. I mean,
there have been periods on my time in my life, Well,
you had to have a credit card balance. It was
just required, you know, you had necessities and you didn't
have the money in the bank, and it just loomed

(23:08):
over me like this monster. So I'm just uncomfortable with debt,
knowing people money, and so that's that's kind of driven
my financial planning throughout my entire life.

Speaker 2 (23:18):
Yeah, and that's when we do financial plans, it all
worth well, we'll build into the plan a quote unquote
spending goal of getting that debt paid down. Mortgages aren't
necessarily the scariest thing. It's not the worst, not the
end of the world if you have one. But if
you're about to retire with thirty thousand dollars in credit
card debt, then we need to sit down and have
a and have a little bit of a come to
Jesus conversation, because that kind of thing is going to

(23:38):
blow up in your face. But it's understanding the situation
that you're in, figuring out the resources you have with
which to address, and then implementing a plan.

Speaker 4 (23:46):
Well, that's the beauty of having a financial planner. It's
like having a responsible adult telling you what to do.
And what not to do right. It's your You're the
job is to be like a surrogate parent.

Speaker 5 (23:56):
That's absolutely true.

Speaker 2 (23:58):
As a financial I'm a human too. As a financial planner,
I make the same mistakes. I just know exactly the
impact of the bad choice I'm about to make sometimes.

Speaker 4 (24:05):
Brian James, appreciate your assistance every week with these issues
and bringing things to our attention and providing some sound
financial advice. I'll look forward to another edition of Monday
Monday next Monday. Have a great week, my friend.

Speaker 5 (24:15):
Thank you, sir. Have a good week.

Speaker 4 (24:16):
All right, let's help out the VA since Ava going
to be on next for KRC cares. It's a thirty
five right now, fifty five KRCD talk station.

Speaker 1 (24:23):
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