December 29, 2025 • 19 mins
Kevin talk with senior market analyst of PRICE Futures Group Phil Flynn to talk political and energy issues
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Troy Boats, Russia Travel Bandy Migrason, Don't Care, Plan Jie
in the latest fifty five KRC the Talk Station.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
And now Kevin Golden filling in for Brian Thomas on
fifty five KOs the Talk Station.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Five minutes after seven o'clock on this fifth day of Christmas,
I want to welcome back to the program Phil Flynn.
He is the senior analyst Price Futures Group, author of
the Energy Report, and a contributor to Fox Business News,
and I've actually seen him on the Fox Weather Channel.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Phil, Welcome to the program or welcome back to the program.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
A good kick.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Hey, thank you, Kevin. So this is day five of Christmas.
Do I get five golden rings for being here?
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yes? Absolutely absolutely, that's good.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
With the way the gold prices are going today.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
That's going to be pretty good.
Speaker 4 (01:14):
But oh man, I've been watching the silver market for
the last twenty It's unlike anything I've ever seen before.
I mean, we hit a record high last night, eighty
four dollars. We fallowed ten dollars an ounce, and even
with that volatility, we're still cheap compared to gold. So
(01:34):
the precious metals have been unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Absolutely well By the way, how was your Christmas?
Speaker 4 (01:40):
It was wonderful. I must have got on the nice list.
Thanks for whatever you did well.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
It was because of all your fantastic reporting and all
of the stuff that you talk about in terms of
your energy report and the economy.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
I'll tell you what.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
By the way, I'm going to make a kind of
a brief and usually at seven twenty Chris Smitherman calls
in on Mondays when the other host is here or
the main host. I don't know if he's calling back
or calling in, but I just if he's listening, you know,
we'll take that call at seven thirty because I'm going
to have you for the next two segments if you've
(02:17):
got the time, So anyway, time. But this economy is
on fire, and what I'm seeing is that the only
in my opinion, the only thing holding it back are
these interest rates that I think people are sitting on
the sidelines and saying, gee, do I make this investment,
(02:37):
Do I do this? Do I incur that amount of
money with a return on investment?
Speaker 2 (02:42):
And so on?
Speaker 3 (02:42):
But I mean, you look at I mean, every time
we turn around, there's a report that comes out retail
sales higher than expected unemployment lower than expect. We had
that jobs report on well, I guess it was Wednesday
day early. The initial job is claims less than expected.
And yet we have this drum beat from the spoon
(03:03):
fed regurgitators in the mainstream media that we're actually on
the precipice of a recession, and in my opinion, they're
trying to manufacture a recession.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
You know, I think you're right. You know a lot
of times, you know, the mainstream press. You know, it's
amazing some of the people that they have on the
mainstream press really don't understand the economics. And I think
you see that more and more when you see the
type of questions you get. For example, one of the
things that bothered me is when the mainstream press is saying, no,
(03:35):
as soon as Donald Trump puts on sanctions, we're going
to go on through a recession and inflation is going
to go through the roof. And of course that hasn't happened.
You know, if you look at the partic' never been inflationary.
Speaker 1 (03:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Well, and credit to you, and then credit to my
economics professor. Way back in the day when I was
at Xavier University, one of the things that was talked about.
The tariffs were the main driving force of income to
the United States, and it was only in the period
of after the war World War two that tariffs on
our goods going into the other countries kind of a
(04:13):
protectionism mechanism for them. But the tariffs necessarily don't lead
to inflation. And I think you was that. Kevin O'Leary,
Larry Kudlow and a couple of people in Fox Business
are some of the only people that I have heard
other than you know, you and me saying that tariffs
don't lead to inflation. It's out of control government spending.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
It's absolutely correct. That's in fact, that's the only way
that cause inflation. And listen, when there's tariffs to some
prices go up.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
They absolutely do.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
But I can give you for every price in prease,
I can give you a price decrease as well. And
we saw that for example, you know, in the price
of grains. You know, the farmers don't like to hear that, obviously,
but that's the truth. And grain prices went down when
we had tariffs. So yeah, for every increase, there's a decrease.
And what we're finding right now is that it's actually
(05:05):
lowering inflation because when we take in more money to
the government, it reduces our deficit. And when we have
a smaller deficit, the government has to borrow less money.
We're already seeing that. And when we borrow less money,
we don't have to tax people as much to pay
for it, and we don't have to print as much
money to pay our bills. So you're going.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
To have to that's amazing.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
You're going to have to talk slower because there's a
lot of my frontemies that listen to this program, and
they're liberals, so they may not understand that real quick.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
So not just.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
You know, they don't understand as you said, they don't
understand economics, and so the things that you just said,
you would think it would be common sense, but apparently not.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Well, the good news is, I think liberals are still sleepy,
most of them at.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
The power I take. I don't know for sure, that
could be a guest.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
No, I know, I think it right, you know, and
and it's it's hard to you know, I you know,
I think sometimes I think when you hear, you know,
people on the other side, when they talk about economics,
it's about emotional economics.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
It's like, well, okay, well, you know.
Speaker 5 (06:14):
The you know, the the you know, Eli Muff is
a billionaire, you know, everything's wrong with the economy he
or you know, it's like, okay, this guy, you know
invented a rocket to go to Mars.
Speaker 4 (06:24):
You know, he invented the electric car industry, which wouldn't
exist if if, if it wasn't for his genius, you know.
And but then of course they want to tell everybody
to buy electric cars, enforcing the buy cars. Uh listen,
I mean the whole thing when you look at the
emotional side of economics, I think we have to try
to remove the politics from economics, which is really hard
(06:45):
to do because I think a lot of these politicians
on the other side, you know, keep trying to tell us, hey,
the economy's bad, the economy is bad, you know when
and it's all Trump's fault, you know, when you know
the previous administration you know, was there for four years
and ran up some of the biggest debt and inflation
numbers in history. So you know, yeah, they blamed COVID,
(07:07):
but you know, we know what really caused.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
It, and that's out of control spending.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Yeah, I mean, we had the inflation Reduction Act that
added billions of actually trillions of dollars to the deficit.
We had the government subsidies, that latest round of well,
we had the what was it the what was it?
The Green New Steel Bill that went through that was
was it the Inflation Reduction Act or something else that
(07:33):
was supposed to be all this, but it was all
this green technology that they wanted to fund and a
slush fund for them, which was out of control spending.
But when you look at what has gone on, I
mean when Trump left office, inflation was at one point
four percent, the thirty year fixed rate was somewhere around
two point eighty seven thereabouts, and people were making money,
(07:58):
people wages were higher, was outpacing inflation. And then the
first year of the Biden administration, boom. We're up to
two point five, two point six, up to nine point
one percent in June of twenty twenty two. Gasoline prices
up the five dollars a gallon, and all of a sudden,
the guys that broke the system, they're going to tell
us how to fix it.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Yeah, it is.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
It's pretty amazing, right, it pretty is, you know, And
when you think about, you know, some of the things
that President Trump said when it came into office. One
of them was energy, Right, We're going to make gasoline
prices cheap. And people say, you can't do that, you know,
but President Trump did it. And I think it's a
combination of smart economic policy, smart drill baby drill policy.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
But also geopolitics.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
Right by neutralizing Iran, you know, by showing strength against Venezuela,
by you know, really getting control of the geopolitical picture.
You know, even the pace talks between Russia and the
Ukraine wherever they go anywhere or not. All of this
has reduced the risk premium to oil. And I can't
(09:07):
tell you what leadership means when you talk to a
barrel of oil. When the market's confident that we have
a leader in place that is not going to allow
you know, major oil price disruption, you know, a president
that is not going to sit back and allow Hooti
rebels to start taking over oil tankers. You know, that's
a huge change to the market and that shows up
in the price. And I think that's one of the
(09:29):
unheralded successes when it comes to these low oil prices.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Yeah, that war premium that you were talking about, a
risk premium that has been one of the major considerations.
I mean, every time there was some sort of disruption,
the Huti rebels trying to choke off the straits of Hormuz,
seeking ships in the Red Sea and so on, oil
tankers and such, and trying to choke trade. That is
(09:55):
a risk premium. And when you don't have that risk premium,
the free flow of trade and we're not talking about
just well, we're talking about free trade, but we're also
talking about fair trade as opposed to these talking about
these tariffs. It kind of gives everything a more level
playing field. And I think what people are at go ahead, yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
No, I'm gonna think you're absolutely right now.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
I think you know, when we get back to the
level of pay Listen, I'm a free market guy, you
know that Kevin I would love.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
A world with no tariffs, right, you know.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
And I would lovel war with peace and love and
rock and roll and all that stuff, you know, But
you know, we've got to face reality. I mean, in
the real world, you know, every other country had tariffs
on us, and we were trying to be the nice guy, right,
and by being the nice guy, we gave up so
many jobs, so many factories. You know, we lost so
many industries overseas, right, and so now we're going back
(10:48):
to a policy that stands up to that in the
real world. Right when you stand up to you know,
countries like China that steal our intellectual property or steal
our businesses or steal you.
Speaker 5 (11:00):
Know that kind of thing, and people say, oh, my gosh, well,
you know what's going to happen.
Speaker 4 (11:04):
You know, all the goods we're getting from China, people
are going to you know, we're gonna you know, they're
going to cost so much more. And it's like, there's
so many goods from China that we buy that the
only reason we buy them is because they're so darn cheap.
And the reason why they're so cheap, you know, they're
using cheap labor, they're using you know, cheap you know, materials,
and if they try to raise the prices on those things,
(11:25):
nobody's going to buy it. People are going to buy
you know, name brand goods as opposed to Chinese knockoffs.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
I mean when you look at the the average what
is that the average salary in the United States factory workers,
et cetera. Is somewhere around thirty seven dollars per hour
when you add in the benefits and so on. And
then you go over to China, they have no benefits whatsoever,
and their average hourly wages five to seven dollars. There's
(11:52):
no vacation time, there's none of the employee benefits. Of course,
their wages are going to be cheaper. And yet there's
this big between what they manufacture and then what they sell,
and of course that can be eaten into by these
as I think you pointed out in your energy report
that the teriffs are absorbed by the manufacturer, the import
(12:15):
or the exporter, the importer, the wholesaler, and in some
cases the retailer. So there's all these levels where thase
teriffs can be absorbed that it doesn't hit us at
the level at the consumer level, and we've seen that
as far as inflation is concerned.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
No, you're absolutely right.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
And listen, you're going to hear from some buyers of
Chinese goods saying, hey, we're going to have to raise
prices because of teriffs, right, I mean, yeah, that's going
to happen to a certain degree. But what you're also
going to see on the flip side of that or
other goods are going to go down in price, right
because they have to move goods, and you know, and
in them, you're going to see alternatives become more competitive, right.
(12:58):
So you know, for example, I think everybody was outraged
because we were going to put a tariff on you know, European.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Pastas.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
Oh my gosh, we can't get we can't get our
pastas from you know, and it's like wait a second,
you know, it's how do you make pasta like flower
and water? You know, don't we hit companies in America
because they can figure out how to do that. You know,
we really need it from Italy. I mean, yeah, it
looks kind of nice and the boxes are pretty, but
I think we make as good as pasta in America.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I say, buy America, Aposta.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Yeah, and we did take a click break. Can you
hang with us through the break and we'll pick up
on the other side, all right? I guess this is
also I should have mentioned that several times during this segment,
but I apologize for Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group and
author of the Energy Report. I'm Kevin Gordon in for
Brian Thomas fifty five KR see the talk station. This
(13:51):
is fifty five KRC an iHeartRadio station seven twenty two
in the morning, Kevin Gordon in for Brian Thomas fifty
five KRS the Talk Station, continuing our conversation with Phil Flynn.
He is senior market analyst Price Futures Group, author of
(14:13):
the Energy Report, and contributed to Fox Business Network. Phil,
thanks for hanging with us through the break. When we
were talking earlier about inflation and where we're seeing that,
I thought it was interesting and again, being a recovering accountant,
I just have to dig into the numbers and when
I see some of these reports come out. And it
was a few months ago or a couple months ago
(14:36):
when inflation ticked up. But when you got behind the numbers,
one of the largest increases was in the service sector
and was the fees being charged by brokers. And it's
a good thing, but a bad thing because the market
was so good, many people were coming into the market,
(14:56):
but then the fees on that were in increasing because
there were so many more fhees collected, not higher amounts,
but more people, and that was a factor for the inflation.
But nobody is really talking about, you know, when you
had ups contracts, the railroad contracts, the UAW contracts. Who
else am I missing here? Up? Anyway, all these the
(15:21):
East coast west West coast ports, they got big boosts
in terms of their wages. That's got to affect our
economy and that's got to be causing a little bit
of inflation.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
It is, there's no doubt about that. And you know,
when the economy grows, demand goes and that's it. And
we had what the incredible four point three growth number
in the US, which was blue away expectations right exactly,
and that you know, should put the naysayers to bed.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
But no, it won't, No, it won't.
Speaker 4 (15:56):
But yeah, I mean, the economy is doing great in
so many some now listen. I know there is a
lot of people listening today and say, well, wait a second, Phil,
don't you eat? Do you go to the grocery store?
I mean, those prices are still high, and people are right,
I mean, but there are some prices in the grocery
stores that are going to come down, but there are
(16:17):
some that are hot going to remain high, not because
of just inflation, just because of cycles. Right. For example,
we had the smallest cattle crop we've had, you know,
in a hundred years, right, because of drought and other issues,
you know, so those prices, it's going to take longer
to rebuild that herd, you know. But if you look
on the flip side of that, grain prices are historically low,
(16:40):
so you're going to have, you know, lower food costs there.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
You're seeing.
Speaker 4 (16:43):
You remember, everybody was worried about aiding prices AIG prices
are coming down, you know. So it's going to be
bumpy on the food side here for a little bit.
But we see the trend is going to be down.
There's going to be certain certain commodities that aren't going
to get cheap soon. It's going to take a long time,
but you're going to start finding more value at the
grocery store over the next year, you know.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Except for you were.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
Starting to see it a little bit. I mean where
I live, of course, we experience or we luck out.
And the fact that we've got like five different grocery
store chains that are in the area, so they compete
hot and heavy with each other. And I noticed that
there are certain prices if you look at their flyers
and their ads, there are certain prices. Every three weeks,
(17:29):
this price is down, like coffee, coffee I drink is
usually fourteen ninety nine a can, but when it's on sale,
it's nine to ninety nine, so you buy it. When
it's nine ninety nine, you buy two cans if you're
going to you know, so, I you know the grocery prices,
I think there's ways around them. I mean, I noticed
my wife was telling me the other day she was
in the store and they had milk on sale for
(17:51):
a dollar thirty nine for a half a half a gallon,
and the gallons were over three dollars and people were
coming in grab in the gallons. That we're coming and
grabbing this instead of paying attention to the prices. Is
grab and go mentality, I think where people are getting
hurt on their on their grocery prices.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
But yeah, I listen, I think that's true. I think
that's true. I mean listen, I mean, I got.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
About a minute. I gotta get going here.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
But well, I want my potato chip bags as big
as it used to be. Well, yeah, I think the
trends are getting better. Then be a few things, you know,
like coffee. You know, they had a terrible drown, worst crop, coco,
same thing, but they're coming back.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
So Phil, thank you so much for spending time with us. Again,
aren't my guest, Phil Flynn, Senior Market Analysts, the Price
Futures Group. If you don't get his energy report, you
got to. I mean a lot of information in there
and a lot of good economic data. Phil, again, thank
you so much for spending time with us. I certainly
appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (18:52):
Thank you, Kevin, Happy New Year to you. I'm everybody listening.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Same to you, my friend. I'm Kevin Gordon in for
Brian Thomas. Fifty five r C. The Talk Station fifty
five k r C
Troy Boats, Russia Travel Bandy Migrason, Don't Care, Plan Jie
in the latest fifty five KRC the Talk Station.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
And now Kevin Golden filling in for Brian Thomas on
fifty five KOs the Talk Station.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Five minutes after seven o'clock on this fifth day of Christmas,
I want to welcome back to the program Phil Flynn.
He is the senior analyst Price Futures Group, author of
the Energy Report, and a contributor to Fox Business News,
and I've actually seen him on the Fox Weather Channel.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Phil, Welcome to the program or welcome back to the program.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
A good kick.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Hey, thank you, Kevin. So this is day five of Christmas.
Do I get five golden rings for being here?
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yes? Absolutely absolutely, that's good.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
With the way the gold prices are going today.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
That's going to be pretty good.
Speaker 4 (01:14):
But oh man, I've been watching the silver market for
the last twenty It's unlike anything I've ever seen before.
I mean, we hit a record high last night, eighty
four dollars. We fallowed ten dollars an ounce, and even
with that volatility, we're still cheap compared to gold. So
(01:34):
the precious metals have been unbelievable.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Absolutely well By the way, how was your Christmas?
Speaker 4 (01:40):
It was wonderful. I must have got on the nice list.
Thanks for whatever you did well.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
It was because of all your fantastic reporting and all
of the stuff that you talk about in terms of
your energy report and the economy.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
I'll tell you what.
Speaker 3 (01:55):
By the way, I'm going to make a kind of
a brief and usually at seven twenty Chris Smitherman calls
in on Mondays when the other host is here or
the main host. I don't know if he's calling back
or calling in, but I just if he's listening, you know,
we'll take that call at seven thirty because I'm going
to have you for the next two segments if you've
(02:17):
got the time, So anyway, time. But this economy is
on fire, and what I'm seeing is that the only
in my opinion, the only thing holding it back are
these interest rates that I think people are sitting on
the sidelines and saying, gee, do I make this investment,
(02:37):
Do I do this? Do I incur that amount of
money with a return on investment?
Speaker 2 (02:42):
And so on?
Speaker 3 (02:42):
But I mean, you look at I mean, every time
we turn around, there's a report that comes out retail
sales higher than expected unemployment lower than expect. We had
that jobs report on well, I guess it was Wednesday
day early. The initial job is claims less than expected.
And yet we have this drum beat from the spoon
(03:03):
fed regurgitators in the mainstream media that we're actually on
the precipice of a recession, and in my opinion, they're
trying to manufacture a recession.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
You know, I think you're right. You know a lot
of times, you know, the mainstream press. You know, it's
amazing some of the people that they have on the
mainstream press really don't understand the economics. And I think
you see that more and more when you see the
type of questions you get. For example, one of the
things that bothered me is when the mainstream press is saying, no,
(03:35):
as soon as Donald Trump puts on sanctions, we're going
to go on through a recession and inflation is going
to go through the roof. And of course that hasn't happened.
You know, if you look at the partic' never been inflationary.
Speaker 1 (03:49):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Well, and credit to you, and then credit to my
economics professor. Way back in the day when I was
at Xavier University, one of the things that was talked about.
The tariffs were the main driving force of income to
the United States, and it was only in the period
of after the war World War two that tariffs on
our goods going into the other countries kind of a
(04:13):
protectionism mechanism for them. But the tariffs necessarily don't lead
to inflation. And I think you was that. Kevin O'Leary,
Larry Kudlow and a couple of people in Fox Business
are some of the only people that I have heard
other than you know, you and me saying that tariffs
don't lead to inflation. It's out of control government spending.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
It's absolutely correct. That's in fact, that's the only way
that cause inflation. And listen, when there's tariffs to some
prices go up.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
They absolutely do.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
But I can give you for every price in prease,
I can give you a price decrease as well. And
we saw that for example, you know, in the price
of grains. You know, the farmers don't like to hear that, obviously,
but that's the truth. And grain prices went down when
we had tariffs. So yeah, for every increase, there's a decrease.
And what we're finding right now is that it's actually
(05:05):
lowering inflation because when we take in more money to
the government, it reduces our deficit. And when we have
a smaller deficit, the government has to borrow less money.
We're already seeing that. And when we borrow less money,
we don't have to tax people as much to pay
for it, and we don't have to print as much
money to pay our bills. So you're going.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
To have to that's amazing.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
You're going to have to talk slower because there's a
lot of my frontemies that listen to this program, and
they're liberals, so they may not understand that real quick.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
So not just.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
You know, they don't understand as you said, they don't
understand economics, and so the things that you just said,
you would think it would be common sense, but apparently not.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Well, the good news is, I think liberals are still sleepy,
most of them at.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
The power I take. I don't know for sure, that
could be a guest.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
No, I know, I think it right, you know, and
and it's it's hard to you know, I you know,
I think sometimes I think when you hear, you know,
people on the other side, when they talk about economics,
it's about emotional economics.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
It's like, well, okay, well, you know.
Speaker 5 (06:14):
The you know, the the you know, Eli Muff is
a billionaire, you know, everything's wrong with the economy he
or you know, it's like, okay, this guy, you know
invented a rocket to go to Mars.
Speaker 4 (06:24):
You know, he invented the electric car industry, which wouldn't
exist if if, if it wasn't for his genius, you know.
And but then of course they want to tell everybody
to buy electric cars, enforcing the buy cars. Uh listen,
I mean the whole thing when you look at the
emotional side of economics, I think we have to try
to remove the politics from economics, which is really hard
(06:45):
to do because I think a lot of these politicians
on the other side, you know, keep trying to tell us, hey,
the economy's bad, the economy is bad, you know when
and it's all Trump's fault, you know, when you know
the previous administration you know, was there for four years
and ran up some of the biggest debt and inflation
numbers in history. So you know, yeah, they blamed COVID,
(07:07):
but you know, we know what really caused.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
It, and that's out of control spending.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
Yeah, I mean, we had the inflation Reduction Act that
added billions of actually trillions of dollars to the deficit.
We had the government subsidies, that latest round of well,
we had the what was it the what was it?
The Green New Steel Bill that went through that was
was it the Inflation Reduction Act or something else that
(07:33):
was supposed to be all this, but it was all
this green technology that they wanted to fund and a
slush fund for them, which was out of control spending.
But when you look at what has gone on, I
mean when Trump left office, inflation was at one point
four percent, the thirty year fixed rate was somewhere around
two point eighty seven thereabouts, and people were making money,
(07:58):
people wages were higher, was outpacing inflation. And then the
first year of the Biden administration, boom. We're up to
two point five, two point six, up to nine point
one percent in June of twenty twenty two. Gasoline prices
up the five dollars a gallon, and all of a sudden,
the guys that broke the system, they're going to tell
us how to fix it.
Speaker 1 (08:20):
Yeah, it is.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
It's pretty amazing, right, it pretty is, you know, And
when you think about, you know, some of the things
that President Trump said when it came into office. One
of them was energy, Right, We're going to make gasoline
prices cheap. And people say, you can't do that, you know,
but President Trump did it. And I think it's a
combination of smart economic policy, smart drill baby drill policy.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
But also geopolitics.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
Right by neutralizing Iran, you know, by showing strength against Venezuela,
by you know, really getting control of the geopolitical picture.
You know, even the pace talks between Russia and the
Ukraine wherever they go anywhere or not. All of this
has reduced the risk premium to oil. And I can't
(09:07):
tell you what leadership means when you talk to a
barrel of oil. When the market's confident that we have
a leader in place that is not going to allow
you know, major oil price disruption, you know, a president
that is not going to sit back and allow Hooti
rebels to start taking over oil tankers. You know, that's
a huge change to the market and that shows up
in the price. And I think that's one of the
(09:29):
unheralded successes when it comes to these low oil prices.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Yeah, that war premium that you were talking about, a
risk premium that has been one of the major considerations.
I mean, every time there was some sort of disruption,
the Huti rebels trying to choke off the straits of Hormuz,
seeking ships in the Red Sea and so on, oil
tankers and such, and trying to choke trade. That is
(09:55):
a risk premium. And when you don't have that risk premium,
the free flow of trade and we're not talking about
just well, we're talking about free trade, but we're also
talking about fair trade as opposed to these talking about
these tariffs. It kind of gives everything a more level
playing field. And I think what people are at go ahead, yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
No, I'm gonna think you're absolutely right now.
Speaker 4 (10:16):
I think you know, when we get back to the
level of pay Listen, I'm a free market guy, you
know that Kevin I would love.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
A world with no tariffs, right, you know.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
And I would lovel war with peace and love and
rock and roll and all that stuff, you know, But
you know, we've got to face reality. I mean, in
the real world, you know, every other country had tariffs
on us, and we were trying to be the nice guy, right,
and by being the nice guy, we gave up so
many jobs, so many factories. You know, we lost so
many industries overseas, right, and so now we're going back
(10:48):
to a policy that stands up to that in the
real world. Right when you stand up to you know,
countries like China that steal our intellectual property or steal
our businesses or steal you.
Speaker 5 (11:00):
Know that kind of thing, and people say, oh, my gosh, well,
you know what's going to happen.
Speaker 4 (11:04):
You know, all the goods we're getting from China, people
are going to you know, we're gonna you know, they're
going to cost so much more. And it's like, there's
so many goods from China that we buy that the
only reason we buy them is because they're so darn cheap.
And the reason why they're so cheap, you know, they're
using cheap labor, they're using you know, cheap you know, materials,
and if they try to raise the prices on those things,
(11:25):
nobody's going to buy it. People are going to buy
you know, name brand goods as opposed to Chinese knockoffs.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (11:31):
I mean when you look at the the average what
is that the average salary in the United States factory workers,
et cetera. Is somewhere around thirty seven dollars per hour
when you add in the benefits and so on. And
then you go over to China, they have no benefits whatsoever,
and their average hourly wages five to seven dollars. There's
(11:52):
no vacation time, there's none of the employee benefits. Of course,
their wages are going to be cheaper. And yet there's
this big between what they manufacture and then what they sell,
and of course that can be eaten into by these
as I think you pointed out in your energy report
that the teriffs are absorbed by the manufacturer, the import
(12:15):
or the exporter, the importer, the wholesaler, and in some
cases the retailer. So there's all these levels where thase
teriffs can be absorbed that it doesn't hit us at
the level at the consumer level, and we've seen that
as far as inflation is concerned.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
No, you're absolutely right.
Speaker 4 (12:35):
And listen, you're going to hear from some buyers of
Chinese goods saying, hey, we're going to have to raise
prices because of teriffs, right, I mean, yeah, that's going
to happen to a certain degree. But what you're also
going to see on the flip side of that or
other goods are going to go down in price, right
because they have to move goods, and you know, and
in them, you're going to see alternatives become more competitive, right.
(12:58):
So you know, for example, I think everybody was outraged
because we were going to put a tariff on you know, European.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Pastas.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
Oh my gosh, we can't get we can't get our
pastas from you know, and it's like wait a second,
you know, it's how do you make pasta like flower
and water? You know, don't we hit companies in America
because they can figure out how to do that. You know,
we really need it from Italy. I mean, yeah, it
looks kind of nice and the boxes are pretty, but
I think we make as good as pasta in America.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
I say, buy America, Aposta.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Yeah, and we did take a click break. Can you
hang with us through the break and we'll pick up
on the other side, all right? I guess this is
also I should have mentioned that several times during this segment,
but I apologize for Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group and
author of the Energy Report. I'm Kevin Gordon in for
Brian Thomas fifty five KR see the talk station. This
(13:51):
is fifty five KRC an iHeartRadio station seven twenty two
in the morning, Kevin Gordon in for Brian Thomas fifty
five KRS the Talk Station, continuing our conversation with Phil Flynn.
He is senior market analyst Price Futures Group, author of
(14:13):
the Energy Report, and contributed to Fox Business Network. Phil,
thanks for hanging with us through the break. When we
were talking earlier about inflation and where we're seeing that,
I thought it was interesting and again, being a recovering accountant,
I just have to dig into the numbers and when
I see some of these reports come out. And it
was a few months ago or a couple months ago
(14:36):
when inflation ticked up. But when you got behind the numbers,
one of the largest increases was in the service sector
and was the fees being charged by brokers. And it's
a good thing, but a bad thing because the market
was so good, many people were coming into the market,
(14:56):
but then the fees on that were in increasing because
there were so many more fhees collected, not higher amounts,
but more people, and that was a factor for the inflation.
But nobody is really talking about, you know, when you
had ups contracts, the railroad contracts, the UAW contracts. Who
else am I missing here? Up? Anyway, all these the
(15:21):
East coast west West coast ports, they got big boosts
in terms of their wages. That's got to affect our
economy and that's got to be causing a little bit
of inflation.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
It is, there's no doubt about that. And you know,
when the economy grows, demand goes and that's it. And
we had what the incredible four point three growth number
in the US, which was blue away expectations right exactly,
and that you know, should put the naysayers to bed.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
But no, it won't, No, it won't.
Speaker 4 (15:56):
But yeah, I mean, the economy is doing great in
so many some now listen. I know there is a
lot of people listening today and say, well, wait a second, Phil,
don't you eat? Do you go to the grocery store?
I mean, those prices are still high, and people are right,
I mean, but there are some prices in the grocery
stores that are going to come down, but there are
(16:17):
some that are hot going to remain high, not because
of just inflation, just because of cycles. Right. For example,
we had the smallest cattle crop we've had, you know,
in a hundred years, right, because of drought and other issues,
you know, so those prices, it's going to take longer
to rebuild that herd, you know. But if you look
on the flip side of that, grain prices are historically low,
(16:40):
so you're going to have, you know, lower food costs there.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
You're seeing.
Speaker 4 (16:43):
You remember, everybody was worried about aiding prices AIG prices
are coming down, you know. So it's going to be
bumpy on the food side here for a little bit.
But we see the trend is going to be down.
There's going to be certain certain commodities that aren't going
to get cheap soon. It's going to take a long time,
but you're going to start finding more value at the
grocery store over the next year, you know.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Except for you were.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
Starting to see it a little bit. I mean where
I live, of course, we experience or we luck out.
And the fact that we've got like five different grocery
store chains that are in the area, so they compete
hot and heavy with each other. And I noticed that
there are certain prices if you look at their flyers
and their ads, there are certain prices. Every three weeks,
(17:29):
this price is down, like coffee, coffee I drink is
usually fourteen ninety nine a can, but when it's on sale,
it's nine to ninety nine, so you buy it. When
it's nine ninety nine, you buy two cans if you're
going to you know, so, I you know the grocery prices,
I think there's ways around them. I mean, I noticed
my wife was telling me the other day she was
in the store and they had milk on sale for
(17:51):
a dollar thirty nine for a half a half a gallon,
and the gallons were over three dollars and people were
coming in grab in the gallons. That we're coming and
grabbing this instead of paying attention to the prices. Is
grab and go mentality, I think where people are getting
hurt on their on their grocery prices.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
But yeah, I listen, I think that's true. I think
that's true. I mean listen, I mean, I got.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
About a minute. I gotta get going here.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
But well, I want my potato chip bags as big
as it used to be. Well, yeah, I think the
trends are getting better. Then be a few things, you know,
like coffee. You know, they had a terrible drown, worst crop, coco,
same thing, but they're coming back.
Speaker 1 (18:33):
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
So Phil, thank you so much for spending time with us. Again,
aren't my guest, Phil Flynn, Senior Market Analysts, the Price
Futures Group. If you don't get his energy report, you
got to. I mean a lot of information in there
and a lot of good economic data. Phil, again, thank
you so much for spending time with us. I certainly
appreciate it.
Speaker 4 (18:52):
Thank you, Kevin, Happy New Year to you. I'm everybody listening.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Same to you, my friend. I'm Kevin Gordon in for
Brian Thomas. Fifty five r C. The Talk Station fifty
five k r C
Brian Thomas News
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