#73: Quarterly Edge – Q3 2025: Liberation Day to Bond Stability

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In this edition of the Blue Chip NOW! Quarterly Edge, Daniel Dusina, CFA, and Dan Seder, CFA, CMT, CFP® unpack the complex economic landscape heading into the second half of 2025. They highlight how uncertainty — driven primarily by unresolved tariff developments — is affecting not only investor sentiment but also labor market behaviors. Notably, data shows that job-switchers are no longer seeing significantly higher wage growth compared to those staying with the same employer, indicating a broad shift in corporate caution and workforce dynamics.

The episode also explores rising U.S. debt levels relative to GDP and why perception—not just the math—matters most when it comes to financial system risk. Shifting gears to the stock market, the hosts reflect on the post-Liberation Day sell-off, sector-specific volatility, and the persistent influence of geopolitical tensions like the Israel-Iran conflict. They close by discussing the resilience of the bond market, noting that higher yields and sustained foreign investment suggest an enduring value proposition for fixed income allocations.

Individual views and opinions expressed in the podcast, article, or other media included herein may not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Blue Chip Partners, LLC. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for individualized financial, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own professional financial, tax, legal, accounting, or equivalent advisers prior to making any investment decision. All investments involve a degree of risk, including the risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.  

Links:

Daniel Dusina: https://www.bluechippartners.com/about/our-team/daniel-dusina/

Dan Seder: https://www.bluechippartners.com/about/our-team/daniel-seder/

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Welcome & Episode Overview - Introduction to this quarter’s market review: economy, stocks, and bonds. 

00:01:12 — The Economic Outlook for 2025 - Why 2025 has been defined by information overload and lingering uncertainty.

00:02:39 — Job Switching No Longer Pays - New data reveals that wage incentives for job-hoppers have declined dramatically.

00:03:27 — Quits Rate & Corporate Caution - Employers and employees alike are “hunkering down” amid economic ambiguity.

00:04:41 — Tariff Overhang and Prolonged Uncertainty - How unresolved tariff policies are freezing confidence and outlooks.

00:05:55 — Debt-to-GDP: A Perception Game - U.S. debt isn’t a mechanical risk—until perception makes it one.

00:08:32 — The Three Safety Factors for U.S. Debt - Why interest rates, GDP growth, and foreign demand are key to debt stability.

00:10:11 — Stock Market Volatility Post-Tariffs - Liberation Day triggered a wide sell-off—was it justified?

00:12:28 — Tech Recovery & Market Expectations - Are we in a bubble or just climbing back to fair value?