May 27, 2025 • 26 mins
Get insights on the President’s polling 100 days in and how Americans view crucial domestic issues.
The Administration’s approval rating has declined from 51% to 45% since Inauguration Day, but that's relatively in line with historical precedent. What does the President’s polling tell us about the American public today—and how they might vote in the 2026 midterms?
Join Steve Odland and guest Clifford Young, president of polling and societal trends at Ipsos, to explore the President’s polling versus his first term, the nuances of polling on immigration and taxes, and why domestic issues matter more to Americans than foreign affairs.
(00:55) Themes in Recent Polls: Trepidation and the President
(02:22) The Administration’s Approval Ratings and Public Perception
(07:15) Consumer Confidence and Economic Behavior
(13:46) Geopolitical Issues and Immigration
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Steve Odland (00:00):
Welcome to C-Suite Perspectives, a signature
series by The Conference Board.
I'm Steve Odland from The ConferenceBoard and the host of this series, and
in today's discussion, we're going totalk about how the executive branch
of the US government is currentlypolling, and what does it mean for
the midterm elections next year?
Joining me today is Cliff Young, presidentof Ipsos polling and societal trends.
(00:23):
Cliff, welcome back.
Clifford Young (00:24):
Great to be here, Steve.
Steve Odland (00:26):
So Cliff, you do this every day.
You do polls for clients, youdo corporate clients, you do
polls for political clients.
You're doing general election polls,you have your finger on the pulse
of everything that's going on.
Talk about what you're seeingin all the recent polls.
Clifford Young (00:47):
A lot, right?
And we're pulling on a lot.
But I would just break it downinto basically two themes.
The first is trepidation,worry about the future.
The average American isfearful of inflation.
We've come off a fairly insidiousinflationary moment in our history, right?
(01:07):
Trump won on that, and Americans areworried about that, and they link
inflation and cost of living with tariffs.
And so I would say you havethis generalized worry.
Nothing's happened specifically topeople, though they're anticipating
it in purchasing behavior, butnothing's happened specifically.
(01:29):
So that's the first theme.
The second theme isbasically Trump himself.
Like, how is he doing?
And when we evaluate how he's doing,we're looking at his approval ratings.
It's important to say that approvalratings are critical for predicting
elections, as well as the ability to pushthe chief executive's agenda forward.
And so he started off at51-point approval rating.
(01:53):
That's the average of all the polls.
It's lower than the historicaverage, but not a bad place to be.
Right now, he's at 45% approvalrating, so he's lost six points.
And the question, is that a lot?
Is that a little?
And so let's do a littlebit of benchmarking.
If you look at history since 1948, theaverage president loses about three
(02:15):
percentage points on his approvalratings in the first hundred days.
Trump has lost six, sohe's outstripping that.
He's a little bit morenegative, a little bit.
He's quicker to the decline thanhis predecessors, but nothing
out of the ordinary, I would say.
I wouldn't over-rotate on that.
Ultimately, the question is why.
(02:37):
And I think that goes back to my initialpoint that the primary theme that
people are worried about the future,not quite sure what's going to happen.
Trump has thwarted a lot ofconvention, and there's a lot
of friction because of that.
And it's reflectedultimately in his numbers.
Now that said, the last pointI'd make is he's at 45%.
(02:59):
And if he were to run on 45% approvalrating in an election, if he were
to be able to, he'd have somethinglike a 75% chance of winning.
So it's not a bad approval rating tohave if you're a sitting president.
But that said, we're onlyin the first hundred days.
Steve Odland (03:18):
What I've read in various polls, not Ipsos polls,
but in other various polls, is thatthe drop in approval rating, which
you said is modest, has all beenin people who didn't vote for him.
That in fact the people who voted forhim have not changed their point of view.
The second thing that I've read isthat his current approval rating is
higher than at any time than it was atany time in his first administration.
(03:42):
What does your pollingsay on those two topics?
Clifford Young (03:44):
On the second point, yes.
He definitely is in a better placethan he was, let's say, in 2017.
From a levels perspective,he was in the lower 40s.
He's in the mid-40s right now.
Indeed, 2024, his electoralvictory, he had a broader coalition.
It was more muscular, and Ithink we're still feeling that.
There's inertia to thatstrength, without a doubt.
(04:07):
Listen, his decay in approval ratingshas been mostly among independents.
Republicans hold are holding fast.
They still believe in their champion.
Democrats obviously never supported him.
They never gave him good ratings.
So the decline has beenmostly among independents.
Some have voted for him, some have not.
They could come back around ifthe agenda that he is pushing
(04:30):
forward has a more positive effect.
I don't think we should discount thattoo much, that some of the decline might
be something he can get back later inthe year or the beginning of next year.
But for the most part,it's been independents.
Steve Odland (04:42):
Yeah.
I should point out, Cliff, thatneither Ipsos nor The Conference
Board is a political organization.
We are totally nonpolitical, nonpartisan.
You're just calling it as you'reseeing it, you're not advocating for
or against any party or individual.
Clifford Young (04:59):
Yeah.
I appreciate you saying that.
So we draw the line atparties and politicians, we
don't work with them, though.
We work a lot on politics, but wetypically work with the private sector to
help them navigate the political milieu.
Steve Odland (05:12):
OK.
So as you look at the firsthundred days, that's behind us,
and the next hundred days to come.
I guess as you said, the issues comeback to economics, and I think the
biggest surprise here, and I don'twant to put words in the mouth of your
respondents, but the biggest surprisehas been how he's come at tariffs.
Everything else was pretty welldescribed in the campaign and even
(05:35):
before that in his first administration.
But how he's come at it, and the speedand the depth of these things has been the
major surprise, and that's what's reallycontinuing to spark fears of inflation.
Clifford Young (05:47):
Yeah, there wasn't a lot of explanation as to what was
going to happen relative to tariffs.
It was something that, it wasmentioned maybe here or there, once
in a while, during the election,but ultimately took shape after it.
And again, there's a lot of, likeI said before, tariffs in and of
themselves is a bad word, right?
People don't like it.
(06:08):
Why don't they like it?
Because they're worried about inflation.
They see it as inflationary.
That said, they do believe that othercountries take advantage of America.
And you have that kind ofjuxtaposition: I don't like it.
I'm worried about making ends meet onthe one hand, but man, I don't like it.
I don't like what China'sdoing at this point.
Now, Trump's primary talking point hasbeen, we need a little bit of pain in the
(06:32):
short term for more gain in the long term.
They've been hammering that home.
The question is, how doesthat talking point stick?
And I think it depends, right?
About 49% of Americans agreewith that talking point.
Agree with that position.
A vast majority of Republicans do.
They're willing to stick it out.
They're willing to feel thatpain cause they think there'll
(06:54):
be benefits in the longer term.
Democrats much less so, obviously,and independents are in the
middle, a little bit less than 50%.
Again, there's worry about inflation.
Though countries are taking advantage ofthem, there's not clear consensus about
wanting to bear the brunt of tariffs.
But Republicans are still there.
They're resilient.
Steve Odland (07:14):
It's interesting.
Your polling lines up preciselywith The Conference Board's Consumer
Confidence Index, which has twocomponents: The Present Situation
Index and the Expectations Index.
Present situation is how are peoplefeeling about their current economic
situation, their job, and so forth.
And the expectations is, over thenext six months, what do you expect?
And the present situation Index hasheld up pretty well, even though the
(07:38):
Consumer Confidence Index in totalhas come down Pretty significantly,
all based on what they fear mighthappen in the next six months.
And so it is interesting that thepolling, and your polling, our indices
all aligned to this fear of whatcould happen in the next six months.
(07:59):
Do you have any more granularityon what could happen?
Clifford Young (08:04):
But what will actually happen?
Well again, from the consumeror public opinion perspective
there's a vagueness about fear,about a fear of what will happen.
We've run different models andlooked at—taking your data,
by the way—and looked at whatmight happen in the future.
I think you're—correct me if I'mwrong, Steve—but your base case is
basically 10% tariffs across the board.
(08:25):
By the way, we've been saying atIpsos that one, we believe that
Trump is a savvy political figure.
That he's going to feel the edges ofpublic opinion, what he can do—and elite
opinion, excuse me—what he can do andwhat he can't do when it comes to tariffs.
I think that's what we're seeingright now, he's stepping back a bit.
We're going to have a moreprescribed tariff regime.
(08:46):
I think that's probably what ispossible, politically speaking.
And just to add another point, cause ourangle is always public opinion, right?
We're not economists, obviously, buteconomic variables do have impact
on politics, has impact on thelikelihood of voting for someone,
how you think a president's doingin terms of approval ratings?
And your own base case suggeststhat there's not going to be a huge
(09:08):
political impact on approval ratings.
Now we don't have a crystal ball.
Maybe we're missing avariable here or there.
But a lot, I think what we'reseeing is, per your point, is worry
about the future, but today's OK.
Uncertain about that.
But if you look at the projections,inflation and unemployment.
They're not at levels that seriouslychange his political trajectory
(09:32):
from an approval standpoint.
Steve Odland (09:34):
Yeah.
Now it is interesting that if youtalk to people, now, this isn't a
poll, but I'm interested in what yourpolls actually say, what the data say.
But if you talk to people, theysay look, if this is just all
negotiations and posturing, and this is
all a means to an end, and
they get through it in the next three to six months, OK, we get that.
Obviously, the administration is notshowing that hand because that would
(09:57):
be basically telling the other sidewhat their negotiating strategy is.
But people are saying, OK,if that's what it is, OK.
That, we can live with that.
But if this is something morepermanent, yeah, that's not so good.
What do your polls say?
Clifford Young (10:12):
It says the same thing.
Basically, there is this sort of asubset, a swath of America, especially
Republicans, think he's using negotiatingtactics to get what America needs.
And they're all behind it.
Democrats definitelydon't see it like that.
There's a huge rift betweenRepublicans and Democrats and
how they view all of that.
(10:34):
What I can ultimately say is from ahousehold decision-making standpoint,
and we've done a lot of work onthis, that's how they're preparing.
They're making decisionsin the shortest of terms.
Maybe not traveling byplane on summer vacation.
Buying that washer dryer now inanticipation of maybe something that might
happen longer term, but they're not makingmore drastic cuts to household spending.
(10:58):
So if you just use the household asan analog for what's going on they're
making these short-term tweaks,believing they're going to be able
to ride the wave, and you don'thave greater or deeper cuts going on.
Steve Odland (11:14):
And what do you hear from the business community on this?
What actions are they takingin this time of uncertainty?
Clifford Young (11:20):
A lot of the same.
The business community mimics, insome ways, the same sort of behavior.
So you have stocking up of materialsand products, to the extent possible.
There's looking at how you canmake supply chains more efficient.
And so what's interesting, whetheryou're talking at the corporate
level or at the household level,a lot of the same strategies are
being deployed at this point.
Steve Odland (11:42):
Yeah.
And so basically, from a corporatestandpoint, from a business
standpoint, that means peoplehave shifted into neutral.
They're not making, as yousaid, the big commitments.
And those are the long-termcapital kinds of commitments.
And that creates frictionand drag on GEP growth.
But it seems like the consumersare continuing to spend.
Consumer debt is at an all-time high.
(12:02):
They're using their credit cards.
And that's reallypropping up the economy.
What do you see in the numbers thatwould be an inflection point, either
positive or negative, on that?
Clifford Young (12:13):
Right now, what we're seeing from a consumer
perspective is basically thisanticipatory behavior, right?
So there is stocking up thereis buying big ticket items,
anticipation of potential tariffs.
And so we're seeing allthose sorts of things.
And again, like I said before, thisall anticipatory, we're not seeing
necessarily deeper cuts that wouldsuggest that the household, the average
(12:35):
American household, is thinking we'reheading into something in something dire.
I think if we start to see, ultimatelywe start to see deeper cuts, where
you're buying down from your premiumbrands to cheaper brands, as an example.
If you're cutting non-essentials, there'slike a serious cutting of non-essentials
like travel or luxury and leisure, Ithink those are all indicators of the
(12:59):
household being much more worried.
But again, we're not seeingit in great frequency right now.
Steve Odland (13:04):
We're talking about the polling as it relates to the
economy and the administration.
We're going to take a shortbreak and be right back.
Welcome back to C-Suite Perspectives.
I'm your host, Steve Odland, from TheConference Board, and I'm joined today
by Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos'polling and societal trends division.
(13:24):
So we were talking about, Cliff, beforethe break, the polling as it relates to
the consumer and how businesses are doing.
Let's shift a little bit.
What do the polls say as itrelates to some of the geopolitical
issues like trade and immigration?
Clifford Young (13:40):
So geopolitically, the conflict, let's say in
different places, they're verydifferent and distant for people.
Whether we're talking about Gaza asan example, or we're talking about
Ukraine, there are partisan splitsthere, but these things don't weigh
on the average Americans, weigh ontheir consciousness when they're
thinking about certain things.
(14:01):
Immigration's a big deal.
And indeed, Trump won on cost of living,won on inflation this last electoral
cycle, but immigration has been a veryimportant issue, especially since 2016.
It really is the bailiwickof the Republican Party.
It's Trump's bailiwick.
And what we're seeing now is anextension of the agenda that's developed
over the last few electoral cycles.
(14:23):
Where do Americans fall?
It's nuanced, and I think it'svery important to state that.
Yes, it's a highly polarizing issue.
It's probably the issue that best definesif you're a Republican or Democrat.
Indeed, if you run statistical modelsin the United States or even around the
world, immigration or immigration-relatedissues are the most important sort
of predictors of where you fall onthe political spectrum, but when
(14:46):
it comes to the United States andspecifically what's going on today,
what we find is that there's nuance.
And so on the one hand, a vastmajority of Americans would say,
yeah, we probably should deportillegal immigrants who are criminals.
But only a plurality, and a weakone, would say, yeah, we should deport
children, or we should have somesort of deportation with children.
(15:06):
And it just shows the spectrumof what we actually see.
There is some sort of alignment withTrump's agenda, maybe not complete,
but in specific instances there is.
We can see his efforts thus far havebeen along those dimensions, or in
other words, they mostly focusedon, or at least publicly so, on
illegals who are also immigrants.
(15:28):
That said, while Americans might getbehind the signature issues when it
comes to immigration, they actuallydon't necessarily agree with the method.
And so they're not really in favorof spiriting away someone during
the dead of night, not having dueprocess, and support there kind of.
In essence, breaks down.
(15:49):
And so that's where we are.
We have a very divisive issue that dividesthe two parties, though there is some sort
of common ground about what can be done.
And ultimately, the Trumpadministration so far has lost
points on it because of the methodby which they're operationalized.
Steve Odland (16:07):
It's interesting, you mentioned, you used the words
common ground, which you don't hearcoming out of Washington very often.
But it is interesting in the polls, whenyou split Democrats and Republicans we
are really fractured as a society.
It is like whatever the administrationdoes, he gets a 90% approval rating
from Republicans and a 90% disapprovalrating from Democrats, even if those
(16:33):
actions were consistent with a prioradministration of the opposite party.
So how do you sort all that?
Has it just become, it doesn't matterwhat they do, one side likes 'em,
the other side dislikes 'em, andit, and the policy doesn't matter?
Clifford Young (16:51):
Yes and no.
And so if we're just looking atsort of approval ratings, right?
Really the big swings that we findare going to be with independents.
And we talked about that.
So there are certain sort of subgroupsthat could support, could not support, and
really what will determine where a givenpresidency, including Trump, is sitting.
But it's the same sort of thingwith immigration policy, right?
(17:13):
Let's take deportation as an example.
You don't have a majority of Americansin favor of deporting children, let's
say, or some sort of initiativesassociated with deporting children.
But you have a vast majority, 87% insupport, of deporting immigrant illegal
immigrants who are also criminals.
And yes, it's highly partisan,highly polarized, but these
(17:37):
issues do have nuance.
And there is support at a certain level.
And ultimately what I would say is whenit comes, and I already noted this,
the method by which they're deportingpeople, as an example, people disagree
with, they don't like the method.
There's ultimately this notionin America among the average
Americans of fundamental fairness.
(17:57):
So is it being done ina fair and just way?
And we're seeing a lot ofpushback at this point.
So I guess just, in sum, yeah, highlypolarized society explains a lot.
There is nuance andvariability there, too.
And you have to understandthat, as well, obviously.
Steve Odland (18:15):
One of the big issues that we've got in the Congress
is the dealing with the tax bill.
You've got the 2017 tax bill,which is expiring this year, and
they're putting together what thattax bill will look like to renew
some things, to change some things.
What does the polling tell you aboutwhat Americans want to see out of that?
Clifford Young (18:38):
It's fuzzy, right?
And so it's not so clear.
What's interesting is Americanstend to be populist in orientation.
They tend to believe that therich should be taxed and the less
affluent should be, should not betaxed or should have lower rates.
That's where we typically are, right?
And that's where, if you're justask the polling independent of the
(18:58):
specific bills or who sponsored,then that's where Americans would be.
What I find interesting is thatit's a confused scenario, right?
We have the tax bill, whetherit's going to be renewed or not.
You have this kind of discussion of taxon millionaires that historically would
maybe be a Democratic issue, right?
But it not necessarily the case.
And so I would say there's a lot ofconfusion around the issue of taxes,
(19:22):
because it's not clear in people's mindswhere the two parties actually fall.
Steve Odland (19:26):
Yeah, it's interesting, I don't know if you have any numbers on
this, but I've read polls in the pastthat says they should tax the rich, the
populist thing that you just talked about.
And then when you ask them, what'sthe maximum amount that the government
should take from anyone, it almostalways solves to be around 25%.
Which, of course, the current taxrate is much higher than that.
(19:49):
And the marginal tax ratesare higher than that.
So we're already collecting more of that.
What do your polls say about any ofthat and any of the misalignment between
what is real and what they're saying?
Clifford Young (20:04):
Yeah.
Once again, I think thepolling's unclear.
I think that people,it's fuzzy in their head.
I don't think the two partieshave clear tax positions.
They do, but they don't.
You have a Republican party that'sincreasingly becoming populist in
orientation, though they hold some ofthe policies of the old Republican party.
(20:24):
The Democrats are notclear on their messaging.
And once that happens, the taxissue is very distant for people.
It's very abstract for people.
It becomes fuzzy.
Now that said, like I alreadysaid, Americans tend to
be populist in orientation.
They believe that everyone should paytheir fair share, especially the rich.
And so if you were to ask that question,you probably get the same answers today
(20:45):
as you would've gotten 40 years ago.
Steve Odland (20:47):
Yeah, but it's interesting, the parties have scrambled a little bit.
What used to be a clear Democraticissue and a Republican issue had,
and some of those are the same, buta lot of them have swapped over time.
Clifford Young (20:59):
That's the confusing thing.
And so because it's a more abstract issue,the parties would frame it for people.
They would frame it in away that would make sense.
And we don't have that right now.
Steve Odland (21:08):
You've got the midterms right around the corner, the
campaigning and all the challengestypically start after the new year.
So that's in January, soalmost half a year away.
And we're going to be rightback into that season again.
What do your polls say about the prospectsfor the House and the Senate next year.
Clifford Young (21:28):
Yeah.
And so obviously a midterm, anoff-election year, not presidential,
typically favors a party out of power.
And that would be the Democrats in thisat this point, though the Senate is
very different than the House, right?
The Senate tends to be very idiosyncratic.
Each race is a race.
There's brands in and ofthemselves, unto themselves.
(21:50):
And this electoral cycle favorsmore Republicans than the Democrats.
And so probably the Republicans, inour mind, the base case is they'd
keep the Senate, though there aresome arguments to the contrary.
But I think that, given the number ofseats that are up, that makes sense.
Now on the House, thattypically falls by the wayside.
The party in power typically loses it.
(22:12):
What we can say right now, andmaybe that should be our base
case, the Democrats take it.
But ultimately the polling isn't, theDemocrats are not super strong on
that ballot question right now.
It might come into better relief laterin the year, but at this point, it
would be a close race, one way orthe other . And I would still say
(22:32):
the Democrats probably will win.
But it's not so clear at this point.
Steve Odland (22:36):
And obviously, there's a long way to go.
We're only a hundred days in andwe've got, obviously, the rest
of this year and most of nextyear before the elections occur.
But I think it comes back, asyou said before, to what happens
over the course of this year.
Do the tariffs get resolved?
Does inflation abate?
Does cost of living flatten out?
(22:58):
Is this just the administrationnegotiating, they'll get through
it, and then we'll have nirvana?
Or is this going to continue, andyou're going to have this economic
malaise continuing into next year, inwhich case it's not good for the House.
Clifford Young (23:11):
Yeah.
I think that's right.
I think you're absolutely right.
I don't think we're going tohave an economic disaster.
I think everything suggests that we won't.
I think that would be thebest case for the Democrats.
That's what the Democratshave been hoping for.
I don't think that will be the case.
And so the question is, does Trumpgo into next year net neutral?
(23:32):
And if he's net neutral, itprobably favors the Democrats.
Net negative favors the Democrats.
If he's net positive, thatwould help the Republicans.
We'll see where we aregoing into next year.
But most probably it leans toDemocrat rather than Republican.
Steve Odland (23:49):
Yeah.
And those flashpoints areinflation, which tariffs play a—
Clifford Young (23:53):
Unemployment.
Steve Odland (23:55):
Unemployment, but you also have the geopolitical situations.
Where does Ukraine stand at that point?
Gaza, the South China Sea, and are thosegetting settled, or are they flaring up?
And all of that bears onthese elections, as well.
Clifford Young (24:10):
Yeah, I would say the geopolitical stuff, it will weigh less.
Most important would be domestic issues.
Steve Odland (24:15):
Interesting.
Yeah.
Very interesting.
Clifford Young (24:17):
For us, they weigh a lot.
For the average person, they weigh less.
Steve Odland (24:21):
Yeah.
It's our backyard.
And any final things that you can sharewith us on what you see in the numbers?
Clifford Young (24:28):
I would just say that I think many analysts,
many people have over-rotatedon the confusion/disaster side.
I think that there's friction in thesystem, and that's what we're seeing now.
I think it will dissipate.
I think he showed himself that, Trumphas shown himself to be a savvy political
actor, he's backed off the worst of whatcould happen and probably have a much
more prescribed and focus tariff regime.
(24:51):
That's not going to hurt the economy.
That's not going to hurtpolitics as much as people think.
And so I think that'sthe right perspective.
That's our perspectivein POV at this point.
Steve Odland (25:00):
Cliff Young, president of Ipsos polling and societal trends,
thanks for being with us today.
Clifford Young (25:05):
Thank you so much.
It was great, Steve.
Steve Odland (25:06):
And thanks to all of you for listening to C-Suite Perspectives.
I'm Steve Odland, and this series has beenbrought to you by The Conference Board.
Welcome to C-Suite Perspectives, a signature
series by The Conference Board.
I'm Steve Odland from The ConferenceBoard and the host of this series, and
in today's discussion, we're going totalk about how the executive branch
of the US government is currentlypolling, and what does it mean for
the midterm elections next year?
Joining me today is Cliff Young, presidentof Ipsos polling and societal trends.
(00:23):
Cliff, welcome back.
Clifford Young (00:24):
Great to be here, Steve.
Steve Odland (00:26):
So Cliff, you do this every day.
You do polls for clients, youdo corporate clients, you do
polls for political clients.
You're doing general election polls,you have your finger on the pulse
of everything that's going on.
Talk about what you're seeingin all the recent polls.
Clifford Young (00:47):
A lot, right?
And we're pulling on a lot.
But I would just break it downinto basically two themes.
The first is trepidation,worry about the future.
The average American isfearful of inflation.
We've come off a fairly insidiousinflationary moment in our history, right?
(01:07):
Trump won on that, and Americans areworried about that, and they link
inflation and cost of living with tariffs.
And so I would say you havethis generalized worry.
Nothing's happened specifically topeople, though they're anticipating
it in purchasing behavior, butnothing's happened specifically.
(01:29):
So that's the first theme.
The second theme isbasically Trump himself.
Like, how is he doing?
And when we evaluate how he's doing,we're looking at his approval ratings.
It's important to say that approvalratings are critical for predicting
elections, as well as the ability to pushthe chief executive's agenda forward.
And so he started off at51-point approval rating.
(01:53):
That's the average of all the polls.
It's lower than the historicaverage, but not a bad place to be.
Right now, he's at 45% approvalrating, so he's lost six points.
And the question, is that a lot?
Is that a little?
And so let's do a littlebit of benchmarking.
If you look at history since 1948, theaverage president loses about three
(02:15):
percentage points on his approvalratings in the first hundred days.
Trump has lost six, sohe's outstripping that.
He's a little bit morenegative, a little bit.
He's quicker to the decline thanhis predecessors, but nothing
out of the ordinary, I would say.
I wouldn't over-rotate on that.
Ultimately, the question is why.
(02:37):
And I think that goes back to my initialpoint that the primary theme that
people are worried about the future,not quite sure what's going to happen.
Trump has thwarted a lot ofconvention, and there's a lot
of friction because of that.
And it's reflectedultimately in his numbers.
Now that said, the last pointI'd make is he's at 45%.
(02:59):
And if he were to run on 45% approvalrating in an election, if he were
to be able to, he'd have somethinglike a 75% chance of winning.
So it's not a bad approval rating tohave if you're a sitting president.
But that said, we're onlyin the first hundred days.
Steve Odland (03:18):
What I've read in various polls, not Ipsos polls,
but in other various polls, is thatthe drop in approval rating, which
you said is modest, has all beenin people who didn't vote for him.
That in fact the people who voted forhim have not changed their point of view.
The second thing that I've read isthat his current approval rating is
higher than at any time than it was atany time in his first administration.
(03:42):
What does your pollingsay on those two topics?
Clifford Young (03:44):
On the second point, yes.
He definitely is in a better placethan he was, let's say, in 2017.
From a levels perspective,he was in the lower 40s.
He's in the mid-40s right now.
Indeed, 2024, his electoralvictory, he had a broader coalition.
It was more muscular, and Ithink we're still feeling that.
There's inertia to thatstrength, without a doubt.
(04:07):
Listen, his decay in approval ratingshas been mostly among independents.
Republicans hold are holding fast.
They still believe in their champion.
Democrats obviously never supported him.
They never gave him good ratings.
So the decline has beenmostly among independents.
Some have voted for him, some have not.
They could come back around ifthe agenda that he is pushing
(04:30):
forward has a more positive effect.
I don't think we should discount thattoo much, that some of the decline might
be something he can get back later inthe year or the beginning of next year.
But for the most part,it's been independents.
Steve Odland (04:42):
Yeah.
I should point out, Cliff, thatneither Ipsos nor The Conference
Board is a political organization.
We are totally nonpolitical, nonpartisan.
You're just calling it as you'reseeing it, you're not advocating for
or against any party or individual.
Clifford Young (04:59):
Yeah.
I appreciate you saying that.
So we draw the line atparties and politicians, we
don't work with them, though.
We work a lot on politics, but wetypically work with the private sector to
help them navigate the political milieu.
Steve Odland (05:12):
OK.
So as you look at the firsthundred days, that's behind us,
and the next hundred days to come.
I guess as you said, the issues comeback to economics, and I think the
biggest surprise here, and I don'twant to put words in the mouth of your
respondents, but the biggest surprisehas been how he's come at tariffs.
Everything else was pretty welldescribed in the campaign and even
(05:35):
before that in his first administration.
But how he's come at it, and the speedand the depth of these things has been the
major surprise, and that's what's reallycontinuing to spark fears of inflation.
Clifford Young (05:47):
Yeah, there wasn't a lot of explanation as to what was
going to happen relative to tariffs.
It was something that, it wasmentioned maybe here or there, once
in a while, during the election,but ultimately took shape after it.
And again, there's a lot of, likeI said before, tariffs in and of
themselves is a bad word, right?
People don't like it.
(06:08):
Why don't they like it?
Because they're worried about inflation.
They see it as inflationary.
That said, they do believe that othercountries take advantage of America.
And you have that kind ofjuxtaposition: I don't like it.
I'm worried about making ends meet onthe one hand, but man, I don't like it.
I don't like what China'sdoing at this point.
Now, Trump's primary talking point hasbeen, we need a little bit of pain in the
(06:32):
short term for more gain in the long term.
They've been hammering that home.
The question is, how doesthat talking point stick?
And I think it depends, right?
About 49% of Americans agreewith that talking point.
Agree with that position.
A vast majority of Republicans do.
They're willing to stick it out.
They're willing to feel thatpain cause they think there'll
(06:54):
be benefits in the longer term.
Democrats much less so, obviously,and independents are in the
middle, a little bit less than 50%.
Again, there's worry about inflation.
Though countries are taking advantage ofthem, there's not clear consensus about
wanting to bear the brunt of tariffs.
But Republicans are still there.
They're resilient.
Steve Odland (07:14):
It's interesting.
Your polling lines up preciselywith The Conference Board's Consumer
Confidence Index, which has twocomponents: The Present Situation
Index and the Expectations Index.
Present situation is how are peoplefeeling about their current economic
situation, their job, and so forth.
And the expectations is, over thenext six months, what do you expect?
And the present situation Index hasheld up pretty well, even though the
(07:38):
Consumer Confidence Index in totalhas come down Pretty significantly,
all based on what they fear mighthappen in the next six months.
And so it is interesting that thepolling, and your polling, our indices
all aligned to this fear of whatcould happen in the next six months.
(07:59):
Do you have any more granularityon what could happen?
Clifford Young (08:04):
But what will actually happen?
Well again, from the consumeror public opinion perspective
there's a vagueness about fear,about a fear of what will happen.
We've run different models andlooked at—taking your data,
by the way—and looked at whatmight happen in the future.
I think you're—correct me if I'mwrong, Steve—but your base case is
basically 10% tariffs across the board.
(08:25):
By the way, we've been saying atIpsos that one, we believe that
Trump is a savvy political figure.
That he's going to feel the edges ofpublic opinion, what he can do—and elite
opinion, excuse me—what he can do andwhat he can't do when it comes to tariffs.
I think that's what we're seeingright now, he's stepping back a bit.
We're going to have a moreprescribed tariff regime.
(08:46):
I think that's probably what ispossible, politically speaking.
And just to add another point, cause ourangle is always public opinion, right?
We're not economists, obviously, buteconomic variables do have impact
on politics, has impact on thelikelihood of voting for someone,
how you think a president's doingin terms of approval ratings?
And your own base case suggeststhat there's not going to be a huge
(09:08):
political impact on approval ratings.
Now we don't have a crystal ball.
Maybe we're missing avariable here or there.
But a lot, I think what we'reseeing is, per your point, is worry
about the future, but today's OK.
Uncertain about that.
But if you look at the projections,inflation and unemployment.
They're not at levels that seriouslychange his political trajectory
(09:32):
from an approval standpoint.
Steve Odland (09:34):
Yeah.
Now it is interesting that if youtalk to people, now, this isn't a
poll, but I'm interested in what yourpolls actually say, what the data say.
But if you talk to people, theysay look, if this is just all
negotiations and posturing, and this is
all a means to an end, and
they get through it in the next three to six months, OK, we get that.
Obviously, the administration is notshowing that hand because that would
(09:57):
be basically telling the other sidewhat their negotiating strategy is.
But people are saying, OK,if that's what it is, OK.
That, we can live with that.
But if this is something morepermanent, yeah, that's not so good.
What do your polls say?
Clifford Young (10:12):
It says the same thing.
Basically, there is this sort of asubset, a swath of America, especially
Republicans, think he's using negotiatingtactics to get what America needs.
And they're all behind it.
Democrats definitelydon't see it like that.
There's a huge rift betweenRepublicans and Democrats and
how they view all of that.
(10:34):
What I can ultimately say is from ahousehold decision-making standpoint,
and we've done a lot of work onthis, that's how they're preparing.
They're making decisionsin the shortest of terms.
Maybe not traveling byplane on summer vacation.
Buying that washer dryer now inanticipation of maybe something that might
happen longer term, but they're not makingmore drastic cuts to household spending.
(10:58):
So if you just use the household asan analog for what's going on they're
making these short-term tweaks,believing they're going to be able
to ride the wave, and you don'thave greater or deeper cuts going on.
Steve Odland (11:14):
And what do you hear from the business community on this?
What actions are they takingin this time of uncertainty?
Clifford Young (11:20):
A lot of the same.
The business community mimics, insome ways, the same sort of behavior.
So you have stocking up of materialsand products, to the extent possible.
There's looking at how you canmake supply chains more efficient.
And so what's interesting, whetheryou're talking at the corporate
level or at the household level,a lot of the same strategies are
being deployed at this point.
Steve Odland (11:42):
Yeah.
And so basically, from a corporatestandpoint, from a business
standpoint, that means peoplehave shifted into neutral.
They're not making, as yousaid, the big commitments.
And those are the long-termcapital kinds of commitments.
And that creates frictionand drag on GEP growth.
But it seems like the consumersare continuing to spend.
Consumer debt is at an all-time high.
(12:02):
They're using their credit cards.
And that's reallypropping up the economy.
What do you see in the numbers thatwould be an inflection point, either
positive or negative, on that?
Clifford Young (12:13):
Right now, what we're seeing from a consumer
perspective is basically thisanticipatory behavior, right?
So there is stocking up thereis buying big ticket items,
anticipation of potential tariffs.
And so we're seeing allthose sorts of things.
And again, like I said before, thisall anticipatory, we're not seeing
necessarily deeper cuts that wouldsuggest that the household, the average
(12:35):
American household, is thinking we'reheading into something in something dire.
I think if we start to see, ultimatelywe start to see deeper cuts, where
you're buying down from your premiumbrands to cheaper brands, as an example.
If you're cutting non-essentials, there'slike a serious cutting of non-essentials
like travel or luxury and leisure, Ithink those are all indicators of the
(12:59):
household being much more worried.
But again, we're not seeingit in great frequency right now.
Steve Odland (13:04):
We're talking about the polling as it relates to the
economy and the administration.
We're going to take a shortbreak and be right back.
Welcome back to C-Suite Perspectives.
I'm your host, Steve Odland, from TheConference Board, and I'm joined today
by Cliff Young, the president of Ipsos'polling and societal trends division.
(13:24):
So we were talking about, Cliff, beforethe break, the polling as it relates to
the consumer and how businesses are doing.
Let's shift a little bit.
What do the polls say as itrelates to some of the geopolitical
issues like trade and immigration?
Clifford Young (13:40):
So geopolitically, the conflict, let's say in
different places, they're verydifferent and distant for people.
Whether we're talking about Gaza asan example, or we're talking about
Ukraine, there are partisan splitsthere, but these things don't weigh
on the average Americans, weigh ontheir consciousness when they're
thinking about certain things.
(14:01):
Immigration's a big deal.
And indeed, Trump won on cost of living,won on inflation this last electoral
cycle, but immigration has been a veryimportant issue, especially since 2016.
It really is the bailiwickof the Republican Party.
It's Trump's bailiwick.
And what we're seeing now is anextension of the agenda that's developed
over the last few electoral cycles.
(14:23):
Where do Americans fall?
It's nuanced, and I think it'svery important to state that.
Yes, it's a highly polarizing issue.
It's probably the issue that best definesif you're a Republican or Democrat.
Indeed, if you run statistical modelsin the United States or even around the
world, immigration or immigration-relatedissues are the most important sort
of predictors of where you fall onthe political spectrum, but when
(14:46):
it comes to the United States andspecifically what's going on today,
what we find is that there's nuance.
And so on the one hand, a vastmajority of Americans would say,
yeah, we probably should deportillegal immigrants who are criminals.
But only a plurality, and a weakone, would say, yeah, we should deport
children, or we should have somesort of deportation with children.
(15:06):
And it just shows the spectrumof what we actually see.
There is some sort of alignment withTrump's agenda, maybe not complete,
but in specific instances there is.
We can see his efforts thus far havebeen along those dimensions, or in
other words, they mostly focusedon, or at least publicly so, on
illegals who are also immigrants.
(15:28):
That said, while Americans might getbehind the signature issues when it
comes to immigration, they actuallydon't necessarily agree with the method.
And so they're not really in favorof spiriting away someone during
the dead of night, not having dueprocess, and support there kind of.
In essence, breaks down.
(15:49):
And so that's where we are.
We have a very divisive issue that dividesthe two parties, though there is some sort
of common ground about what can be done.
And ultimately, the Trumpadministration so far has lost
points on it because of the methodby which they're operationalized.
Steve Odland (16:07):
It's interesting, you mentioned, you used the words
common ground, which you don't hearcoming out of Washington very often.
But it is interesting in the polls, whenyou split Democrats and Republicans we
are really fractured as a society.
It is like whatever the administrationdoes, he gets a 90% approval rating
from Republicans and a 90% disapprovalrating from Democrats, even if those
(16:33):
actions were consistent with a prioradministration of the opposite party.
So how do you sort all that?
Has it just become, it doesn't matterwhat they do, one side likes 'em,
the other side dislikes 'em, andit, and the policy doesn't matter?
Clifford Young (16:51):
Yes and no.
And so if we're just looking atsort of approval ratings, right?
Really the big swings that we findare going to be with independents.
And we talked about that.
So there are certain sort of subgroupsthat could support, could not support, and
really what will determine where a givenpresidency, including Trump, is sitting.
But it's the same sort of thingwith immigration policy, right?
(17:13):
Let's take deportation as an example.
You don't have a majority of Americansin favor of deporting children, let's
say, or some sort of initiativesassociated with deporting children.
But you have a vast majority, 87% insupport, of deporting immigrant illegal
immigrants who are also criminals.
And yes, it's highly partisan,highly polarized, but these
(17:37):
issues do have nuance.
And there is support at a certain level.
And ultimately what I would say is whenit comes, and I already noted this,
the method by which they're deportingpeople, as an example, people disagree
with, they don't like the method.
There's ultimately this notionin America among the average
Americans of fundamental fairness.
(17:57):
So is it being done ina fair and just way?
And we're seeing a lot ofpushback at this point.
So I guess just, in sum, yeah, highlypolarized society explains a lot.
There is nuance andvariability there, too.
And you have to understandthat, as well, obviously.
Steve Odland (18:15):
One of the big issues that we've got in the Congress
is the dealing with the tax bill.
You've got the 2017 tax bill,which is expiring this year, and
they're putting together what thattax bill will look like to renew
some things, to change some things.
What does the polling tell you aboutwhat Americans want to see out of that?
Clifford Young (18:38):
It's fuzzy, right?
And so it's not so clear.
What's interesting is Americanstend to be populist in orientation.
They tend to believe that therich should be taxed and the less
affluent should be, should not betaxed or should have lower rates.
That's where we typically are, right?
And that's where, if you're justask the polling independent of the
(18:58):
specific bills or who sponsored,then that's where Americans would be.
What I find interesting is thatit's a confused scenario, right?
We have the tax bill, whetherit's going to be renewed or not.
You have this kind of discussion of taxon millionaires that historically would
maybe be a Democratic issue, right?
But it not necessarily the case.
And so I would say there's a lot ofconfusion around the issue of taxes,
(19:22):
because it's not clear in people's mindswhere the two parties actually fall.
Steve Odland (19:26):
Yeah, it's interesting, I don't know if you have any numbers on
this, but I've read polls in the pastthat says they should tax the rich, the
populist thing that you just talked about.
And then when you ask them, what'sthe maximum amount that the government
should take from anyone, it almostalways solves to be around 25%.
Which, of course, the current taxrate is much higher than that.
(19:49):
And the marginal tax ratesare higher than that.
So we're already collecting more of that.
What do your polls say about any ofthat and any of the misalignment between
what is real and what they're saying?
Clifford Young (20:04):
Yeah.
Once again, I think thepolling's unclear.
I think that people,it's fuzzy in their head.
I don't think the two partieshave clear tax positions.
They do, but they don't.
You have a Republican party that'sincreasingly becoming populist in
orientation, though they hold some ofthe policies of the old Republican party.
(20:24):
The Democrats are notclear on their messaging.
And once that happens, the taxissue is very distant for people.
It's very abstract for people.
It becomes fuzzy.
Now that said, like I alreadysaid, Americans tend to
be populist in orientation.
They believe that everyone should paytheir fair share, especially the rich.
And so if you were to ask that question,you probably get the same answers today
(20:45):
as you would've gotten 40 years ago.
Steve Odland (20:47):
Yeah, but it's interesting, the parties have scrambled a little bit.
What used to be a clear Democraticissue and a Republican issue had,
and some of those are the same, buta lot of them have swapped over time.
Clifford Young (20:59):
That's the confusing thing.
And so because it's a more abstract issue,the parties would frame it for people.
They would frame it in away that would make sense.
And we don't have that right now.
Steve Odland (21:08):
You've got the midterms right around the corner, the
campaigning and all the challengestypically start after the new year.
So that's in January, soalmost half a year away.
And we're going to be rightback into that season again.
What do your polls say about the prospectsfor the House and the Senate next year.
Clifford Young (21:28):
Yeah.
And so obviously a midterm, anoff-election year, not presidential,
typically favors a party out of power.
And that would be the Democrats in thisat this point, though the Senate is
very different than the House, right?
The Senate tends to be very idiosyncratic.
Each race is a race.
There's brands in and ofthemselves, unto themselves.
(21:50):
And this electoral cycle favorsmore Republicans than the Democrats.
And so probably the Republicans, inour mind, the base case is they'd
keep the Senate, though there aresome arguments to the contrary.
But I think that, given the number ofseats that are up, that makes sense.
Now on the House, thattypically falls by the wayside.
The party in power typically loses it.
(22:12):
What we can say right now, andmaybe that should be our base
case, the Democrats take it.
But ultimately the polling isn't, theDemocrats are not super strong on
that ballot question right now.
It might come into better relief laterin the year, but at this point, it
would be a close race, one way orthe other . And I would still say
(22:32):
the Democrats probably will win.
But it's not so clear at this point.
Steve Odland (22:36):
And obviously, there's a long way to go.
We're only a hundred days in andwe've got, obviously, the rest
of this year and most of nextyear before the elections occur.
But I think it comes back, asyou said before, to what happens
over the course of this year.
Do the tariffs get resolved?
Does inflation abate?
Does cost of living flatten out?
(22:58):
Is this just the administrationnegotiating, they'll get through
it, and then we'll have nirvana?
Or is this going to continue, andyou're going to have this economic
malaise continuing into next year, inwhich case it's not good for the House.
Clifford Young (23:11):
Yeah.
I think that's right.
I think you're absolutely right.
I don't think we're going tohave an economic disaster.
I think everything suggests that we won't.
I think that would be thebest case for the Democrats.
That's what the Democratshave been hoping for.
I don't think that will be the case.
And so the question is, does Trumpgo into next year net neutral?
(23:32):
And if he's net neutral, itprobably favors the Democrats.
Net negative favors the Democrats.
If he's net positive, thatwould help the Republicans.
We'll see where we aregoing into next year.
But most probably it leans toDemocrat rather than Republican.
Steve Odland (23:49):
Yeah.
And those flashpoints areinflation, which tariffs play a—
Clifford Young (23:53):
Unemployment.
Steve Odland (23:55):
Unemployment, but you also have the geopolitical situations.
Where does Ukraine stand at that point?
Gaza, the South China Sea, and are thosegetting settled, or are they flaring up?
And all of that bears onthese elections, as well.
Clifford Young (24:10):
Yeah, I would say the geopolitical stuff, it will weigh less.
Most important would be domestic issues.
Steve Odland (24:15):
Interesting.
Yeah.
Very interesting.
Clifford Young (24:17):
For us, they weigh a lot.
For the average person, they weigh less.
Steve Odland (24:21):
Yeah.
It's our backyard.
And any final things that you can sharewith us on what you see in the numbers?
Clifford Young (24:28):
I would just say that I think many analysts,
many people have over-rotatedon the confusion/disaster side.
I think that there's friction in thesystem, and that's what we're seeing now.
I think it will dissipate.
I think he showed himself that, Trumphas shown himself to be a savvy political
actor, he's backed off the worst of whatcould happen and probably have a much
more prescribed and focus tariff regime.
(24:51):
That's not going to hurt the economy.
That's not going to hurtpolitics as much as people think.
And so I think that'sthe right perspective.
That's our perspectivein POV at this point.
Steve Odland (25:00):
Cliff Young, president of Ipsos polling and societal trends,
thanks for being with us today.
Clifford Young (25:05):
Thank you so much.
It was great, Steve.
Steve Odland (25:06):
And thanks to all of you for listening to C-Suite Perspectives.
I'm Steve Odland, and this series has beenbrought to you by The Conference Board.
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