What’s Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine—and in Europe?

Episode Transcript
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Steve Odland (00:00):
Welcome to C-Suite Perspectives, a signature
series by The Conference Board.
I'm Steve Odland from The ConferenceBoard and the host of this podcast series.
And in today's conversation, we'regoing to talk about the status
of the Russia-Ukraine war, andwhat could finally bring peace.
Joining me today is Dr. LoriEsposito Murray, senior fellow

(00:20):
for national security and managingdirector of CEO programs at the
Council on Foreign Relations.
She's also the former presidentof the Committee for Economic
Development, which is the publicpolicy center of The Conference Board.
Lori, welcome back.

Lori Esposito Murray (00:35):
Thank you, Steve.
And thank you for theinvitation to come back.
Important topic.

Yeah, important topic.
Lori, just give us an overviewof what the status is on this
longtime Russia-Ukraine war.

Basically, Steve, now that we're in the fourth year of
war, after more than three years ofwar, it's pretty much at a stalemate.
Most of the media seems to be leaningtowards Russia having the momentum and
the advantage, but in fact, there wasa military analysis out of Europe that
basically said that, over the past threemonths, Russia has only been seizing

(01:13):
2.5 square miles a day, which mean itwould take years for it to actually
acquire the territory of Ukraine.
And it's moving veryslowly in its advances.
So basically, the war is at a stalemate.
Ukraine is clearly hurt by the needfor more military supplies and the

(01:38):
Russian change in tactics, wherethey're bombarding single cities
at one time to really draw downthe Ukrainian supplies of missiles.
Basically looking at it, threeand a half years in, fourth year
of war, it's at a stalemate.

So what regions now are totally occupied by Russia?
It's the Donbas in the east and, ofcourse, Crimea, which they took in 2014.
Is it the entirety of the Donbas region?

Basically the overall figure is that Russia controls
about 20%, this is not includingCrimea, 20% of Ukraine territory.
And on that borderline of the Russianadvances and the Ukrainian pushbacks,
it keeps moving back and forth,mostly in Russian momentum now.

(02:29):
But as I said, it's very smalladvances in terms of seizing territory.
There's one thing that has changedsince the beginning of the year, or
particularly since February, when theUS has really put a very intensive
effort into trying to get a ceasefire.
In fact, and this happens in most warswhen ceasefire has become an issue, the

(02:50):
intensity of the war has increased, andthe number of civilian deaths in Ukraine
has markedly gone up over this three-monthperiod versus the same time last year.
That was a UN report thatjust came out last week.

Are those civilian deaths deliberate?

Yes, it's basically a strategy that the Russians are doing.
They've altered their strategy somewhatin terms of how they're approaching
the war in terms of their missilestrikes and their ballistic, which
include ballistic missiles, drones.
And what they're doing is targeting singlecities at a time with massive attacks

(03:31):
so that it's much more difficult for theUkrainians to defend a massive attack
in one place in terms of air defenses.

But isn't the deliberate attack on civilian people and operations
against the Geneva Convention?

Yes.
And what's interesting is what'sbeen in the news is the Victory
Day parade and the grand pomp andcircumstance happening in Moscow.
In fact, the European foreign ministersat the same time were meeting in Lviv in
Ukraine and came out with the statementthat they are going to double down on
the efforts in terms of Russia actuallyproceeding in this war as war criminals.

OK.
Now the US appears to bebacking off its intensive
support with arms and munitions.
But it also appears that theEuropeans have been stepping
up some of their support.
Where does that lie in the balance?

So that is definitely happening, and actually for
the US, it's been happening over 2024as well as with the new administration.
But during 2024, as yourecall, Congress was holding up
providing new aid to Ukraine.
And so there was a real slow down there,and the Europeans were recognizing

(04:55):
that, hoping that the US would continueits support by recognizing the danger,
particularly to Ukraine and Europe, as faras supplying military supplies to Ukraine.
And so they have continued theirefforts, have stepped up their efforts
in terms of supporting Ukraine.
And the US, we still are working underthe authorized Biden administration

(05:22):
military supplies, and just recently,it was released that the US would be
supplying more air defense to Ukraine.
That's still under the Bidenauthorization, but that is going to,
basically draw down by this summer.
And the Europeans have been stepping up.

(05:43):
They've been stepping up in their support.
It's interesting because overall,the Europeans have actually
supplied more aid, both military andhumanitarian, to Ukraine than the US.
But of course, that's a largenumber of countries versus
the US as a single country.

Yeah.
And this is a deliberate attempt by theadministration to get the Europeans to
step up their involvement here in supportand funding for Ukraine, and really
for NATO, in defense of NATO's Easternfront, in order to allow a pivot to
Asia and also to deal with, incursionsin the Arctic and all of that, which

(06:26):
we're not going to get into today.
This is part of a larger geopoliticalstrategy, as you have said before.
Now recently intelligence has said thatRussia has begun to build large bases and
camps that can hold over 10,000 soldiersa piece all along the Finnish border.

(06:46):
And of course, we've seen increasedactivity through the Kaliningrad corridor
and so forth that would essentiallyencircle the three Baltic states.
So what is Russia's strategy here?
Is it to try to pivot from Ukraine,take what they've got, pivot to these
other places, and then perhaps do anincursion into the Baltics or Finland?

Clearly, if there was a ceasefire and a cessation to the
war in Ukraine, that gives Russia theopportunity to actually move assets to
focus on the European borders and Finlandnow, as you mentioned, since Finland and
Sweden have both become members of NATO,the Finland border becomes very important.

(07:31):
It's about an 830-mileborder with the Russians.
It becomes very important on bothsides of that border, and the
Russians are doing a significantbuildup, first of their military.
They've moved from about a milliontroops to 1.3, and now they're
aiming for 1.5 million troops.
They're building, as you said, extensivearmy bases along the European borders.

(07:56):
But it even goes beyond that interms of what Russia is doing as
far as incursions into Europe.
Because there's this whole grayzone of activity that they've been
doing, including cutting the internetlines undersea, undermining with
cyberattacks the Baltic countries.
They've been accused of being involved inthe planting of bombs in the air transport

(08:23):
of DHL company transport systems.
So there's a lot going on in terms of whatEurope is experiencing as far as Russian
aggression, on a whole range of levels.
And obviously if there was a cessation ofmilitary activity in Ukraine, that just
provides more space and more time and moregeography for Russia to pay attention to.

And cost.
And which further sanctionswould potentially throttle down
in the US, or the US is continuingto consider that in the state.
All right, so the US is trying,and Donald Trump ran a campaign
on, ending the Russia-Ukrainewar on day one, quote unquote.
It's now past day 100, andthat has not happened, thereby

(09:10):
frustrating the administration.
But what is the status ofthose peace negotiations?

So there were really several main issues, and right
now it's been an ebb and flow interms of the president's embracing
of the Russians and the Ukrainians.
And right now and we've all, weall saw what happened in the Oval
Office with President Zelensky.
But right now the president seems to begetting frustrated with Putin and the

(09:37):
Russians in terms of moving forward.
But there are basically, I wouldsay, about five or six main issues.
And one of them, and this is veryimportant to the president, is the
unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
Now, President Zelensky has embraced that.
Putin has not, and has actuallybeen frustrating the president.

(09:59):
Putin had called for his own 72-hourceasefire because of the victory
parade and celebrations in Moscow,which were dismissed as basically
being a farce, nothing to them.
And so that's an area that's reallyfrustrating to the president, but it's
also key to actually getting any movementon some sort of conclusion to these

(10:23):
hostilities and to the Russian invasion.
So the ceasefire is hanging outthere as a major issue, and what the
president wants to do is a ceasefirenow, and then negotiate on the issues.
So what are the major issues?
Obviously, security guarantees areabsolutely critical to Ukraine.
They want security guarantees.
The president and the major playersin the administration have made it

(10:48):
clear that the US is not consideringgetting engaged in security guarantees.
And President Zelensky is lookingat Europe, with US backing.
That is, basically Putin said,that's a nonstarter for him to
have foreign troops in Ukraine.

(11:09):
So that's a major issue.
And if you look at the armistice in NorthKorea, although that still remains one
of the most dangerous places on Earthin terms of conflict and conflagration,
the reason why that has held is becauseof the 28,000 US troop presence in South

(11:30):
Korea, the guarantees, the defensivetreaty we have with South Korea.
So US security guarantees were veryimportant for the Korean problem.
And that's being looked at as a possiblealternative, of doing an armistice
and not a peace agreement, but youcan't disassociate the armistice

(11:50):
from the US security guarantees.
OK.
Other major issues, obviously territory.
And here President Zelensky has actuallyshown a little bit of flexibility, at
least in terms of the wording of thepeace proposal that he was discussing,
reportedly, with President Trump atthe Vatican, at Pope Francis' funeral.

(12:11):
And here the US agrees withRussia in terms of Crimea.
But what's interesting is the USadministration leaders on this issue
working with Ukrainians have alsoindicated to Ukraine that even though
the US will support Russia on Crimea,that the Ukrainians don't have to.
And that's actually an interestingissue because President Zelinsky

(12:34):
says, according to his constitution,they can't cede any territory.
And there's a little bitof flexibility there.
But then of course it's what to dowith the Russian incursions into
Ukraine and the Donbas and Luhanskareas, as well as in the south.
And here, the US is saying,let's freeze the lines right now.

(12:55):
And then, in terms of discussionsforward, the other interesting
issue was the Ukrainiangovernment and President Zelensky.
And here you saw, I believe you sawthe president actually supporting the
Russians on having an election in Ukraine.
But it seems like he has really movedon that, most likely recognizing the
difficulty of holding an election rightnow and who could actually, lead and

(13:19):
do a ceasefire and do negotiationsif Zelensky was to step down.
And what had happened in Ukraine is thatthe elections were suspended because of
the war, which Zelensky has argued isexactly what Churchill did in England when
England was being attacked by the Germans.
The other two issues, I wouldsay, are the Ukrainian military.

(13:41):
And here the US actually supportsUkraine and has said this pretty openly
that Ukraine needs to have a military.
And of course, Russia and PresidentPutin have said there have to be
large constraints on and limitationson the Ukrainian military.
And finally, is this interesting andnondescript but very large issue that

(14:05):
President Putin and Foreign MinisterLavrov keep mentioning over and over
again over the past three-some-oddyears, is that the negotiations
and the agreement have to deal withthe larger and broader issues that
actually led, the foundations for theproblem that happened with Ukraine.

(14:26):
That implies Ukraine and NATO, but italso goes beyond that, implies NATO
expansion into Europe, plus a whole hostof other issues that Putin has indicated
over the years, democracy support.
It's hard to fully understand thebreadth and depth of what they

(14:47):
are, what they're discussing.
But Putin is definitely puttingthis in a much larger context of
European security and even thebroader issues with the United States.

We're talking about the Russia-Ukraine War
and potential peace settlement.
We're going to take a shortbreak and be right back.
Welcome back to C-Suite Perspectives.
I'm your host, Steve Odland, fromThe Conference Board, and I'm joined
today by Dr. Lori Esposito Murray,senior fellow for national security
and managing director of CEO programsat the Council on Foreign Relations.

(15:20):
OK, so Lori you, before the break, youwere talking about, the various positions
from Ukraine, Russia, and the US.
Some of those positions seemto be relatively resolved, and
others just are a large gap.
Can you just summarize here.
just to kick off again, to summarizebriefly, where are the big gaps?

The first and most important big gap to get anything started
is the agreement on a 30-day ceasefire.
So that's critical.
And there you have obviously theUS leading, Zelensky supporting,
and Putin not moving on that issueand frustrating President Trump.
That's where his major frustration is.

The 30 day, it's NATO, joining NATO, and it's peacekeeping
forces in territory of Ukraine.
Those are the big ones.
So I don't understand this 30-daything because, actually if you did
a 30-day ceasefire, it gives Russiaa chance to regroup and actually
positions them to relaunch an offensive.
Why is that so important?

Right now, it's so important to the
president, to our President Trump.
He's been very much focusedon the killings, and the fact
that this war is going nowhere.
And the death and the destructionis really extensive, phenomenal,
almost breathtaking when you see thecomparisons of the pictures of what

(16:45):
Ukraine did look like, when you lookat the numbers of civilians and forces,
civilians on the Ukrainian side andforces on both sides, the numbers of
deaths and injuries that have happened.
So that's why the ceasefire is important.

It's important, but they don't want to do it.
And at the same time, it'sholding up then the discussion
on the long-term resolution.
So why not just focus on thelong-term resolution and see if
you can get that done rather well?

I think part of the concern is that the
long-term agreement is probablymore out of reach than a ceasefire.
And to your point, Steve, the ceasefireis not necessarily within reach, but
the longer-term decisions about what thesecurity guarantees will be for Ukraine,
what's the role of Europe, can this bedone without the US, what will Russia

(17:37):
accept in terms of Ukrainian militaryin terms of Ukraine's role in Europe?
We should mention that what'sinteresting is the issue of Ukraine
in the EU seems to have dropped offthe table and is not an issue anymore.
When in fact, that was the majorunderlying issue that led to the

(17:58):
Russian-leaning President of Ukraineactually leaving and going back to
Moscow after the protests in the Maidan.
But that seems to be off the table.
So Ukraine having a role inEurope economically doesn't seem
to be an issue, but these largerissues of territory and security.
Having an agreement that is actuallyan agreement that can ensure the peace

(18:22):
versus one that's just a way stationuntil Russia decides to move again on
Ukrainian territory and sovereignty.

Yeah.
OK.
So let's talk about that.
Do you think President Zelenskyis prepared to cede the Donbas.

I don't think President Zelinsky is
prepared to cede the Donbas.
What an agreement may look like isthat he does not acknowledge that
as territory that belongs to Russiaor territory that right now is
independent and Russia has recognized.
But is there a workaround just likein Crimea where you have a situation

(19:05):
where you have an agreement, andUkraine doesn't have to acknowledge
that Crimea is part of Russia.
And Russia can acknowledgethat it is part of Russia.
But you're focusing more on the ending ofhostilities and trying to get some sort
of stability in the areas of contention,which is really the areas of Donbas,

(19:30):
the bridge, the territory in the south,that's the bridge to Crimea, to Russia.
So you're dealing with actually pausinghostilities in a ceasefire that are
then supported by security guarantees.
And, as I was mentioning, the North Koreanarmistice is an example that people are
turning to, but that really requireddiplomatic support and security guarantees

(19:55):
from the US in terms of defense treatiesand broader US role in Asia, as well
as stationing of troops in South Korea.
So you're going to look at somethingthat's going to be much more robust.
And whether it's European forces orhowever you do it, the security guarantees
have to be robust enough to hold the peaceor to hold the cessation of hostilities.

Yeah, and this peacekeeping, you can understand
from Russia's point of view why theydon't want to mass even more foreign
troops on their border in Ukraine.
On the other hand, there hasto be some stabilizing factor.
Otherwise, you can get a peace agreement,everybody goes home, and then Russia just
picks it back up and goes at it again.
There needs to be somevalidation on both sides.

Yeah.
Which is exactly what the Minskagreements were that led to the Russian
invasion when they fell apart in thebeginning of 2022 and led to, matter
of fact, two days before the Russianincursion, invasion into Ukraine,
on February 24, I believe, the Minskagreements fell apart, and Russia pulled
out two or three days before that.

(20:58):
So you need agreements that can hold.
You need agreements will onlyhold with security guarantees.

Would Russia acquiesce to a UN presence?

So Russia says right now it would not acquiesce to
any foreign troop presence in Ukraine.
Whether peacekeeping forceis a viable alternative?
UN peacekeeping effortshave a mixed record.
And so it really depends on theintentions of the two warring parties.

Yeah.
Recently, there's been this rare-earthminerals deal between the US and Ukraine.
Can you just describe where that endedup, and what does it do for each country?

It's interesting.
And so you have the actual agreement,Steve, and then you have the
broader meanings of the agreement.
And so basically, the minerals agreementis the US and Ukraine agreeing that
they will share in the revenue, onthe profits of the investment in
terms of developing and building outthe infrastructure and developing

(22:10):
the mineral resources in Ukraine.
It includes oil and gas.
But in terms of critical minerals,Ukraine has about 5% of the world's
supply of critical minerals.
Now, there's a big question becausethe mapping is very old, and the Soviet
mapping has a lot of these mineralsin the areas that Russia controls.

(22:31):
But in any case, it is arich resource for minerals.
And as I mentioned, oil and gasis also included and the US would
basically profit share, 50-50.
And they would set up areconstruction investment fund
to actually manage all of this.
Ukraine would still control theactual leases and make those

(22:54):
decisions in terms of its minerals.
And the US, basically, it is nota right of refusal, but no other
agreement can be made that's on betterterms than any agreement that the US
has an opportunity to participate in.
So that's the construct of the agreement.
It really emphasizes how PresidentTrump sees this relationship going

(23:18):
forward as a transactional relationship.
If we're going to help you, this isgoing to be a partnership, and we're
going to be invested in this development.
Couple of interesting aspects.
Anyone who has participated in the effort,in terms of the incursion, cannot benefit
from the reconstruction of Ukraine.

(23:39):
And that I think is broaderthan cutting Russia out.
I think that may cut outpotentially anyone who has
supported Russia in this effort.
And the big question is, since Chinacontrols 90% of the critical and
rare-earth minerals, mines across theworld, resources across the world,
you have to wonder, particularlyin terms of rare-earth minerals,

(24:01):
you have to wonder whether thatbars China from being involved.
But in any case, it'sa framework agreement.
The details still have to be worked out.
But I'd like to get to the broaderimplications of the significance
of the agreement, which is that
how the administration is seeingit, how the US is seeing is

(24:21):
as a commitment to Ukraine.
And the words are in the agreementas a sovereign, free country.
Which is a big step in terms of actuallyhaving that in an agreement, that we
are invested in the future of Ukraine.
And the administration also argues thatthis is a major security guarantee because

(24:43):
we are financially invested in Ukraine.
And as part of the deal, at least asPresident Zelensky has described it, was
that two more air defense batteries willbe going to most likely going to Ukraine.
One coming from Israel, and the otherone may come from Germany or Greece.

(25:05):
Quid pro quo here, in terms of theminerals deals also led to the release
of the agreement on two more airdefense batteries for Ukraine.
It signals to the Russians, the USis invested in Ukraine's future,
both literally and figuratively.
And it also provides this transactionalrelationship that's very important to

(25:29):
President Trump in terms of the US.

So Lori, just wrapping up then, what are your odds on a deal, a
peace deal between Russia and Ukraine?

So
in order for it to work, I thinkit really relies on President Putin
recognizing that ceasing hostilities—andI think that's really the best you're
going to get here, is a ceasefirewith guarantees, security guarantees
for Ukraine—that actually ceasinghostilities is in his interest.

(26:06):
Right now, and particularly this verybig splashy pompous show on Victory
Day, President Putin, I think, isreally signaling that he's riding high.
He had President Xi there right afterthe invasion, in 2022, February 2022,
the Victory Day in Moscow, therewasn't a single foreign visitor.

(26:30):
Last year, there were only nine,and this year they have 20-plus.
But most importantly, President Xicame to the Victory Day, showing
that Russia's not isolated.
Russia's finding alternativerelationships, and the most important
being China in terms of its economy.
But it's a very expensive war.
The military budgets are going up.

(26:52):
The finance ministry has just reassessedthe extent of their deficits, which
will put further pressure on theirforeign reserves, which are dwindling.
They have inflation of 10%,food inflation's even higher.
And nevermind the number ofcasualties, injuries, and deaths that

(27:13):
the Russia military is undergoing.
So how long can Russia maintain this?
Putin has to come to thatrecognition that it's more in his
interests to cease hostilities.
And I think it's really onhis recognition of that.
And I think President Trumpis trying to push him there.

But what are the odds, Lori?
What are the odds?

President Trump is trying to push him there with the
threat of further sanctions, wherehe'll do secondary sanctions on any
country involved in Russia's oil trade.
Those are really significantsanctions, but there were
already significant sanctions.
Whether Russia can work around thatagain with their black fleet of tankers,
nonetheless, it's a serious threat.

(27:54):
What are the odds?
I would say the odds today are maybe30-70 that Russia will move anytime soon.
But I think if the US stays involved,and this is a critical point because
Vice President Vance has been indicating,and so has the president directly, that

(28:19):
if there isn't a ceasefire agreementsoon, he's out, the US is out, and we're
not going to stay involved in this.
I think if the US stays involved,and the president keeps pushing on
this, that will move the odds ina much more favorable direction.

I would have guessed the opposite, that we're only at
a 30% probability, and everythingthat you said moves it more to zero.
But we're in the middle of it.

But I'll add on a closing note here.
The US is a really significant countryand a really significant power.
And I think if we utilize that leverage,we have shown, and I think we can
continue to show, that we can makean important difference in the world.

All right, we'll leave it there.
Dr. Lori Esposito Murray, thanksfor discussing the Russia-Ukraine
situation with us today.

Thanks, Steve.
Appreciate the invitation.

And thanks to all of you for listening to C-Suite Perspectives.
I'm Steve Odland, and this series has beenbrought to you by The Conference Board.

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