July 28, 2025 • 31 mins
Where is the freight market heading, and how are the current economic trends shaping it?
Today, let’s break down the latest spot market conditions, the recent economic indicators impacting freight volumes, and some of the challenges in business development during a market downturn!
Whether you're a carrier, broker, or shipper, this episode’s insights can help you better navigate today’s transportation industry!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Came back with a bank hey oh Got the foot on the gas pedal to the metal when I'm get to the back hey Got the foot on the gas pedal to the metal when the blame moving fast hey Let them all cross if they hate then let them hate them Make a bigger.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Ball hey what is up ladies and gentlemen?
We are back.
We are live.
It is the Freight Coach Podcast, the top podcast in transportation, coming to you guys every single weekday, 8:30am Pacific, 10:30 Central, to break down some industry headlines.
But most importantly, you guys provide some actual insight into what you can do with all of this information.
If this is your first time tuning in, welcome.
(00:45):
This is the real side of freight, ladies and gentlemen.
And I do say this before every single show.
And what I mean by that is I only speak with transportation professionals.
Professionals, because at the end of the day, you guys, I want to talk to the right individuals who have done what you're looking to do or who are currently doing what you're trying to achieve.
So you can take that information, apply it, utilize it, and see a meaningful difference in your business and your life.
(01:06):
Happy Monday, everybody.
I got an action packed solo show for you guys here today.
We're going to be doing a little bit of market trends out there and just some.
I chose some articles to break down and you know, kind of give an update on some of the current events that are going on in the industry right now and what it could possibly mean here over.
Over the coming months.
(01:27):
My team has advised me that I need to bring this up at the beginning of the episode here.
If you get value in what you hear today, you guys, and you're not subscribed, subscribe to the show regardless of what you're watching it on.
It just helps us get it out there in front of more people.
Because most importantly, you guys, if you see value, your network's going to see it as well.
And then one more quick thing.
If you want to get in on the weekly Freight Coach newsletter, it drops every single Wednesday morning, once a week.
(01:52):
I need you to go to the FreightCoach.com though and register for it because I don't auto sign anybody up for it.
If I have your contact information, unless you explicitly say, hey, Chris, here's my email, you can go sign us up for it.
Cool.
Other than that, I don't do that because frankly, I get so annoyed when I see another bought email address newsletter drop into my inbox and I'm like, who the hell is this?
(02:17):
What is this, you guys?
Because again, I want to earn your guys's downloads and viewership and all of that stuff, but Corey Buchan, Happy Monday my guy.
Let's get in to some things here, you guys.
I want you.
We're going to do a little bit of a market report here and kind of see what's going on out there.
(02:37):
This was sent over from my friends over at dat.
It's, you know, it's just, you know, spot market conditions continue to soften across all major equipment types.
Load and truck postings declined.
Average spot rates fell for the third consecutive week.
Despite this, seasonal patterns are relatively steady out there when compared to the last two years.
(03:00):
Meanwhile, public carriers are reporting weak earnings reflecting industry wide challenges including soft demand and high operating costs out there.
It does say though that again the three major modes, you guys, dry reefer, flatbed, they all dipped by 1 to 2 cents a mile.
Dry van right now is 202amile nationwide.
Reefer is 233 and flatbed is 243 out there.
(03:25):
Declining postings.
You know, load and truck post dropped 7% week over week.
Reefer loads fell sharply 19% out there while dry vans dropped 6%.
With all of this, dry van volumes are 8% higher than week 30 of last year.
And then their drive in rates are still 3% above where they were in 2024.
(03:49):
So again, how do you really perceive a lot of that information?
For me it's like I think that we're waiting for a major moment to kind of come in and like flip the market and change everything overnight.
And I've been saying this for a couple of years now, you guys, and I truly feel like this way in my heart of hearts is it's going to be a slow and steady increase because my belief in this is being more and more solidified.
(04:19):
The longer this market kind of continues this way, the longer capacity stays in the market at this level is it's going to be a ratchet up approach.
All right, not ratchet as in the street definition of ratchet, but like a ratchet strap.
Right.
It's going to be slowly working its way up over time and you know, it's going to come in forms of, you know, it might be an increase in volume but rates remain the same and then it's going to slowly create an equilibrium out there.
(04:49):
And I feel like at this time, possibly next year, I don't want to put a date on there, but at some point in the foreseeable future, in the near term, I want to say within the next 12 months, I feel like a lot of people are going to look up and be like, damn, rates are up 20 cents a mile year over year at this point.
And it's just not going to be a cataclysmic rise.
(05:11):
That was Covid.
I feel like that, like the fact that there's still a lot of people who are referring to that as like how it's going to change.
It's alarming to me because that was a black swan event that hopefully we never go through ever again out there.
So also I want to look at, you know, flatbed activity is stabilizing.
(05:31):
Flatbed.
Flatbed rates dropped.
Loads per truck increased to 22 and a half.
Showing some resilience compared to other modes out there.
And you know, again I, I look at flatbed as kinda the precursor for the rest of the freight market.
And this is just coming from somebody you guys like we do full truckload.
(05:52):
At the end of the day, 99 of my freight is shipped on an open deck, trailer, flatbed, step deck, Conestoga.
It's very slow out there from a new business development perspective.
And it's not even your typical rejections that we're hearing of.
We're not adding anybody.
Remove us from your list.
(06:13):
It's really a lot of work down as a business.
All right.
We should be working 60 hour weeks right now and we're barely getting 40 as it is.
Right.
So it's like, I look at, it is as there's a lot of stuff that is kind of on the hinges and you know, we need to not lose sight of focusing on the fundamentals right now more than ever.
(06:35):
And I'm going to kind of get into that here in a little bit.
But you know, I look at a lot of this market data and again, you can look for that sliver of hope.
You can find positivity and negativity in any market.
But I feel like now more than ever it has to be a heavy focus on internal processes, internal outreach.
What more can we do to get in front of more and more people?
(06:59):
Right?
Because it's not always going to be this way.
And it's, you know, realistically it's going to be one customer here or two customers there and eventually you're going to look up and you're gonna be like, dang, I got a pretty sizable book of business.
At the end of the day.
It just takes a lot of time.
And I, and I feel like now more than ever we just got to continue to focus on the basics, you guys, the fundamentals of what got your book of business where it is.
(07:23):
I do not feel like in my heart of hearts there is going to be something where everyone's going to be able to point to and say everything's going to get better and it's going to better by this time.
There's so much conflicting reports out there right now.
And I am going to speak from a pragmatic centric viewpoint.
There are two people, two types of people reporting data out there.
(07:46):
There's, there's the camp of I hope this country burns and fails.
Nothing is going to work that the current administration is currently doing out there.
And then there's the other side of is this is the greatest economic policies of all time.
Everything's going to be great.
Just wait and see.
And I try and look at it from as center of a viewpoint as possible because the.
(08:08):
I, you know, you guys, I literally have been banking my entire future on this business working, right?
So take this for what it's worth, I think it's way too early for anybody to have an actual stance on like how successful or detrimental things are going to be with the current trade climate that is going on out there.
(08:29):
But again, rest assured, you guys, we have the literal largest economy in the entire world.
So I view it as is like people are going to have to pay more money to do business with the United States of America because otherwise where are they going to go, right?
Like, they're not going to sell it anywhere else.
There's no other economy on planet Earth that buys at the level that the United States does.
I'm not here to talk about the national debt, which is obscenely high, but I look at it is there's a lot of stuff that are, that is going to take a lot of, a lot longer than most people want to admit on whether it's going to be successful or not out there.
(09:03):
And, and I truly feel like it takes a lot longer than a lot of people want.
We, we literally have a give it to me now mentality.
And that's just because like we can buy literally anything on Amazon and have it to ship to our house same day.
Right?
I was looking at a book this morning and I could have it in like four hours, which is just like ridiculous.
It's awesome.
Don't get me wrong, but I feel like a lot of these other areas of our life we try and transmit into as like a holistic viewpoint where this is the way that everything should be economies of our size take a long time to shift and grow.
(09:38):
All right?
It can happen.
I just think that a lot of individuals out there need to kind of pump the brakes on how good or how bad they think things are going to be.
Because if you go out there and look at any headline, it's like, if it hasn't happened within three minutes of the current administration dropping announcement out there, it's the end of the world.
Right?
So I feel like we kind of got to wait and see.
(10:00):
And I know that sucks because there's a lot of people out there who are, you know, maxed out with the way that they can handle a lot of this stuff because it has not been easy.
But I think that we got to stop looking for that instant result out there.
And I feel like it truly is going to come in a.
You know, it might be another year from now where people are going to look up and be like, damn, look at how much higher rates are than what they were out there.
(10:24):
So take that for what it's worth, you guys.
Again, this is just my opinion.
This is coming from somebody who actually does the work.
All right?
This podcast is built around what I do in my day to day, inside of my brokerage, inside of my business.
Although I am a pretty face, I'm not just a pretty faced and a phenomenal podcast voice.
(10:45):
I'm applying a lot of this stuff out there in building my business.
Okay?
So I feel all those exact same frustrations.
But at the end of the day, you guys, we got to focus on the basics and focus on the fundamentals and be in front of as many people as we possibly can.
All right, first article we are going to break down Today is from ttnews.com Truck tonnage slips out there from a SEC For a second consecutive month in June, the ATA index drops 0.4% as freight levels ease after a strong Q2 start.
(11:19):
The ATA seasonally adjusted for hire truck tonnage, fell to 113.3, down from 113.8 in May, marking a 4% or 0.4%.
Sorry, monthly decline and a 0.1% drop year over year out there.
This is two months of sequential decline.
Excuse me.
(11:40):
After rising in April, tonnage eased in both May and June, reflecting a sustained downtrend in freight volumes in late Q2 out there.
And then flat annual growth so far year to date compared to the same period in 2024.
Truck tonnage is only up 0.1% indicating little net expansion across the first half of the year.
(12:04):
And again I feel like there's a direct line with that of.
You know, again I've been very critical of the current administration's handling of tariffs in the sense of like it's like a fucking ping pong match.
At the end of the day it's like, oh, we're at 50% now, we're at 197,000%.
All right, we're going to ease it back down to 25%.
And this is all within in hours time it seems like out there.
(12:25):
So I feel like that has caused a lot of chaos in the market of like people's ability and want or desire to purchase inventory.
Right.
Because it's like shit man, it's at 50% now.
You go in and order your inventory and by the time the invoice is processed and you get it back, it's like, oh, it was up to 75%.
I mean there's just so much out there where I understand why a lot of people want to rescind and kind of wait and see on there.
(12:52):
Q2 it was balanced, but it was slightly weaker on a quarter to quarter basis, you guys.
Tonnage rose 0.2% versus Q1, but remains below 2024 levels.
And then again, you guys, there's mixed economic tailwinds out there.
The report cites modest gains in factory output and retail sales, but highlights soft construction activity, especially in single family homes and a drag as a drag on freight volumes.
(13:19):
And again, I couldn't agree with that more.
And again, this is just coming from somebody who is actively moves a lot of flatbed freight and like we are literally calling manufacturers inside of the building materials space on like on a daily basis, you guys.
And that 100% aligns with a lot of the feedback that we're getting from a lot of our prospects out there.
(13:41):
And then again, it's just the economic uncertainty of the tariffs going on out there.
That was another thing.
Trucking obviously is a key economic barometer out there.
You guys represents 70% of U.S. freight and reflects broader tendant trends in manufacturing.
I just look at you know like the truck tonnage overall, like the number.
(14:02):
I'm not going to say it's irrelevant.
I don't necessarily pay that much like that close attention to it than the specific number.
Yes, it matters.
Yes, that is a very clear indicator on the amount of freight that's being shipped.
But it's from my perspective it's just kind of like the driving sectors of our economy building being as slow as it is.
(14:25):
Out there.
I feel like that affects a lot of areas out there, you guys, but check that article out.
It is ttnews.com truck tonnage slips for a second consecutive month.
And in June out there, the next article that we're going to be breaking down.
And again, you guys, all the links to all of these articles I will put up in the show, notes and everything.
(14:46):
Again, please do your own research on this, you guys.
This is just me reading it and this is me just giving you guys my unbiased opinion on what I think a lot of this stuff means.
This article is from the joc.
This was pretty big breaking news this weekend.
The transatlantic trade war is averted as US and the European Union reach a weekend deal out there.
(15:11):
This happened yesterday.
President, the current, excuse me, President Trump and the European Commissioner, President Ursula Vaughn.
I'm going to botch this.
Name Ursula von der Leyen announced a landmark agreement that averts a looming transatlantic trade war.
The deal sets a baseline of 15% U.S. tariffs on most EU goods, down from a threatened 30%.
(15:37):
And it also includes an EU commitment to purchase 750 billion in American energy and military equipment and invest 600 billion in the U.S. over three years.
That's a large sum of money.
However, steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50% with some exceptions and further details still pending out there.
(16:03):
Sorry, let me stick to the stuff here.
The tariff or excuse me, the tariff reduction.
The final agreement PAC caps U.S. tariffs on most EU imports at 15%.
Steel and aluminum will remain stuck at 50%.
And I feel like that's one of those major commodities out there.
(16:23):
You know, again, you guys, how long was U.S. steel?
No, I'm not talking about the company, but like United States steel and aluminum, that was a major part of our economy for a long time.
So I don't think that the current administration is going to budge on that one at all because we can make that here.
(16:44):
You know, the buying US Energy and military goods again, I think it sounds great, but I also look at it as how is that going to affect our power usage?
I mean, I live in Arizona, we're good out here, but other parts of the country, not so much.
They're seeing a rise in power bills and everything else.
And it's going to be good to see though that the 600 billion dollar infrastructure and industries investment as well into US companies.
(17:11):
I mean that's like, I mean, we got a lot of investment coming here.
Foreign investment into the United States here from an infrastructure industry, an Industry's standpoint here coming up.
So I like that a lot.
And then stability and market response.
Markets generally reacted positively.
European stocks did rise.
(17:33):
The euro gained ground, reflecting relief that the trade confrontation has been avoided.
Both European and American businesses welcomed the deal, seen it as at least a. Yeah, it's, they're looking at others like that.
And then remaining uncertainties and political oversight.
The deal.
The deal still requires by the approval by the EU member states and lawmakers, leaving room for delay.
(17:57):
Critics point out uncertainty around implementation details and the possibility of future tariff adjustments, especially if EU commitments fall short.
Again, I just go back to the fact that yeah, it's going to take some time before it all rolls out, but I feel like most, I'm pretty sure the majority of EU countries are subsidized by us already.
(18:18):
So I don't see how many of them are going to push back at all.
But yeah, you know, again, you guys, I think like this is, it's a positive, right?
And that's what again I'm trying to make those correlations is this is a potential positive to increase in freight volumes out there as a whole, you guys, but check this one out as well@the joc.com and this is the transatlantic trade war averted as the EU and US reach weekend deal which again, I don't want any more tariff talk at the end of the day.
(18:54):
I want this to be fixed as soon as possible.
All right?
I want this fixed as soon as possible.
I want the ping pong match done and I want to like, just get back to like business as usual in the sense of like if you're out there prospecting customers, they don't have to worry about is my shit in the media today and is my inventory going to possibly be increased.
(19:15):
And yeah, so any positive step forward.
That's where I'm going to be focusing in on now the, the article, the gift that just seems to keep on giving out here, you guys.
And this is also from my friends over at the JOC and broker group warns against increased shipper 3 PL rate transparency.
(19:43):
Obviously you guys, broker transparency has been all over the news here for the last 18 months, I would say.
And it's, you know, it's one of those things that I feel like again, I understand why everybody advocates right?
Like I understand why Oida is on Capitol Hill advocating for all of this stuff to go out there and get the broker transparency passed and everything.
(20:08):
But you know, I look at what the definition of this actually is, right?
Because a lot of you will see it is and this is the literal definition of this.
All right, so it's the Federal Transparency, the FMCSA.
It's under Section 49C, as in Charlie F, as in Frank R's and Robert 371.3.
(20:30):
If you guys want to Google this on your own, go right ahead on this.
All right.
I would highly advise a lot of you to do this and to keep in mind that this has essentially been the definition since like the early 80s of what this is.
So it is records to be kept by brokers as published in the Code of Federal Regulations.
(20:57):
Number one, the name and address of the consigner.
The name, address and registration number of the motor carrier.
The bill of lading or freight bill number.
The amount of compensation received by the broker for the brokerage service performed and the name of the payer.
A description of any non broker services performed in connection with each shipment or activity.
(21:19):
The amount of compensation received for the service and the name of the payer and then the amount of any freight charges collected by the broker and the date of payment to the carrier.
This clause generally guarantees carriers and shippers the right to see the full transaction detail, including what the shipper paid and what the broker paid the carrier.
(21:42):
Give me just one second here.
So I want to look at this for what the definition was when this all kind of came out.
And this to me is that like I, I, I think the big misconception and this is an area of this clause that I, I personally would like to see cleaned up.
(22:11):
And again, I'm not sitting here saying, I want to be abundantly clear.
I do not advocate for price gouging.
I am a capitalist, but I believe in ethical capitalism and responsible capitalism.
At the end of the day I want everybody to make money in this.
But I feel like there's been a few key points that have been extremely blown out of proportion.
(22:32):
And one thing, and this isn't in the article.
This is just one thing that I've talked about in the show in the past.
And just based on the research that I've done, I feel like the relationship between a broker and a carrier has since changed since this was put into place.
Because if a carrier was to hire me, Chris Jolly, to go out there and find them dedicated freight that I was supposed to give directly to that carrier, I feel like this is applicable to this.
(23:07):
That's why I think dispatch companies, because dispatch services and companies, they are the ones who are not upheld to this.
All right, and this to me describes way more of the current landscape of a dispatch service than it does a freight brokerage operation.
Because I hire a carrier to do a load for me.
(23:30):
Now as a broker, the carrier does not hire me, the broker, to go out and find them dedicated freight.
There are dispatch services and then there are other companies in the industry that fall under this category way more than that.
Right.
Because we go out, we have the relationships initially with the shippers.
Right?
Like I'm not prospecting flatbed trucking companies to get flatbed shippers, all right?
(23:54):
I go out, I prospect manufacturers, I prospect clear shippers out there and I offer them transportation services.
And then it's my job on the back end to go in and find those trucking companies that are running those lanes.
I feel like the entire relationship between a broker and a carrier has flip flopped based on when this law was written.
(24:17):
And I feel like that is what we should be advocating for, is the change of that.
And I truly feel like dispatch services, dispatch companies as a whole, they are the ones that need to have their records audited more than anything because I feel like that aligns way more with them because the entire landscape has changed.
(24:37):
Right.
That's, that's just my opinion on this.
And, and I feel like this is one of those things that isn't going to go away until the market shifts and then a lot of people have a selective memory when they're all making money out there.
But I truly think that we need to be fighting for a change in the definition of how this is done.
(24:59):
Because again, broker or carriers aren't hiring brokers anymore to go out and find them dedicated freight.
That agreement doesn't exist.
Well, I'm sure it does exist, but like, I just haven't personally seen it out there and I feel like that affects more dispatch services than not.
And this.
So back into the article here, you guys.
(25:20):
It says TIA CEO Chris Burrows said in a statement that OIDIS call for rate disclosure from brokers isn't about protecting truckers.
It's about handing private business information over to competitors under the guise of transparency.
If enacted, the rule or statutory provision would set a dangerous precedent not just for the logistics industry, but for all sectors of the American economy.
(25:43):
Will General Motors be forced to disclose what it pays for steel?
Will Walmart have to publish its vendor contracts?
And then the.
The competitive market depends on private negotiations.
This proposal dismantles it.
And then the TIA represents obviously brokers, about three quarters of which make less than 15 million in annual revenue.
(26:05):
And then requiring these firms to disclose negotiated pricing would increase administrative burdens, narrow margins and risk enforcement and risk forcing many to close.
And then this won't stop at brokers.
And then government interference says existing FMCSA regulations requires brokers to keep records.
We already talked about that.
(26:26):
And then among the mandates on the table in the proposed rulemaking, brokers would be required to keep transactional records in electronic format.
Oida, which represents 150,000 small trucking businesses, argued in January comments supporting the new rule making that a lack of transparency leads to a loss of issues such as unfair charges, delayed payments, fraudulent practices.
(26:49):
Burroughs meanwhile argued that carriers have access to a range of tools that can give clarity on rate levels, their load boards, rate benchmarking tools and widespread technology platforms that already support real time competitive freight Marketplace forcing rate disclosure adds government interference where none is needed.
(27:10):
Listen, at the end of the day, like I said, I truly feel in my heart of hearts that the verbiage inside of this needs to be reworked.
There needs to be a revised clarity on what this actually means, this transaction.
Who's hiring who?
All right.
And I think that is where the real gray area lies is when this statute was implemented in there, you guys, carriers hired brokers, it is since reversed.
(27:41):
Okay?
So again I'm not here saying that like you know, price gouging all this stuff.
I'm not advocating for anything other than we need to clarify this.
And then I truly feel like I'm not pointing the finger in another direction, but I feel like dispatch companies out there who are in actively involved in these negotiations, you guys, at the end of the day, I think they need to be brought in and held to the exact same standards as a broker because they are literally brokering in my opinion.
(28:10):
I mean not everybody, but in my opinion some of these dispatch companies are out there, they are brokering, they are taking their cut or God knows what cut they're taking.
And if our records are going to be on the table to be reviewed, their records better be on that exact same table.
And I feel like that is where the common ground will eventually come to because this is, this isn't going to go away anytime soon at the end of the day.
(28:36):
But take that for what it's worth you guys.
Again, that is, that article was from the JOC broker group.
Warrants against increased shipper rate transparency.
And then one more time you guys, if you guys just want to search for it, just put FMCSA 49 CFR.
That's Charlie, Frank, Roger, FMCSA 49 CFR 3371.3.
(29:03):
Google that.
That will give you guys an entire layout of all that.
But I'd love to hear from you guys right at the end of the day, I want to hear from you guys about this because I put my stance out there.
I'm not going to change my opinion on that.
But I want to hear your guys's opinion on this as well because this isn't seemingly go away.
I don't want drivers to go out of business.
I don't want carriers to go out of business out there.
I just don't think that brokers make as much money as they think that we all make on these transactions.
(29:27):
But that will be it for today, ladies and gentlemen.
As always, if you got value in what you heard, subscribe to the show.
You guys, if you're feeling really ambitious after this one, which you should be, rank the show on itunes and Spotify because if you saw value, your network's going to see value as well.
I appreciate you guys.
I love you guys and we'll be talking to you soon.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
Came back with a bank hey got the gas pedal to the metal when I'm get to the back a Got the foot on the gas pedal to the metal when the lane move fast a Let them all cross if they hate and let them hate them make a bigger boss a.
Came back with a bank hey oh Got the foot on the gas pedal to the metal when I'm get to the back hey Got the foot on the gas pedal to the metal when the blame moving fast hey Let them all cross if they hate then let them hate them Make a bigger.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Ball hey what is up ladies and gentlemen?
We are back.
We are live.
It is the Freight Coach Podcast, the top podcast in transportation, coming to you guys every single weekday, 8:30am Pacific, 10:30 Central, to break down some industry headlines.
But most importantly, you guys provide some actual insight into what you can do with all of this information.
If this is your first time tuning in, welcome.
(00:45):
This is the real side of freight, ladies and gentlemen.
And I do say this before every single show.
And what I mean by that is I only speak with transportation professionals.
Professionals, because at the end of the day, you guys, I want to talk to the right individuals who have done what you're looking to do or who are currently doing what you're trying to achieve.
So you can take that information, apply it, utilize it, and see a meaningful difference in your business and your life.
(01:06):
Happy Monday, everybody.
I got an action packed solo show for you guys here today.
We're going to be doing a little bit of market trends out there and just some.
I chose some articles to break down and you know, kind of give an update on some of the current events that are going on in the industry right now and what it could possibly mean here over.
Over the coming months.
(01:27):
My team has advised me that I need to bring this up at the beginning of the episode here.
If you get value in what you hear today, you guys, and you're not subscribed, subscribe to the show regardless of what you're watching it on.
It just helps us get it out there in front of more people.
Because most importantly, you guys, if you see value, your network's going to see it as well.
And then one more quick thing.
If you want to get in on the weekly Freight Coach newsletter, it drops every single Wednesday morning, once a week.
(01:52):
I need you to go to the FreightCoach.com though and register for it because I don't auto sign anybody up for it.
If I have your contact information, unless you explicitly say, hey, Chris, here's my email, you can go sign us up for it.
Cool.
Other than that, I don't do that because frankly, I get so annoyed when I see another bought email address newsletter drop into my inbox and I'm like, who the hell is this?
(02:17):
What is this, you guys?
Because again, I want to earn your guys's downloads and viewership and all of that stuff, but Corey Buchan, Happy Monday my guy.
Let's get in to some things here, you guys.
I want you.
We're going to do a little bit of a market report here and kind of see what's going on out there.
(02:37):
This was sent over from my friends over at dat.
It's, you know, it's just, you know, spot market conditions continue to soften across all major equipment types.
Load and truck postings declined.
Average spot rates fell for the third consecutive week.
Despite this, seasonal patterns are relatively steady out there when compared to the last two years.
(03:00):
Meanwhile, public carriers are reporting weak earnings reflecting industry wide challenges including soft demand and high operating costs out there.
It does say though that again the three major modes, you guys, dry reefer, flatbed, they all dipped by 1 to 2 cents a mile.
Dry van right now is 202amile nationwide.
Reefer is 233 and flatbed is 243 out there.
(03:25):
Declining postings.
You know, load and truck post dropped 7% week over week.
Reefer loads fell sharply 19% out there while dry vans dropped 6%.
With all of this, dry van volumes are 8% higher than week 30 of last year.
And then their drive in rates are still 3% above where they were in 2024.
(03:49):
So again, how do you really perceive a lot of that information?
For me it's like I think that we're waiting for a major moment to kind of come in and like flip the market and change everything overnight.
And I've been saying this for a couple of years now, you guys, and I truly feel like this way in my heart of hearts is it's going to be a slow and steady increase because my belief in this is being more and more solidified.
(04:19):
The longer this market kind of continues this way, the longer capacity stays in the market at this level is it's going to be a ratchet up approach.
All right, not ratchet as in the street definition of ratchet, but like a ratchet strap.
Right.
It's going to be slowly working its way up over time and you know, it's going to come in forms of, you know, it might be an increase in volume but rates remain the same and then it's going to slowly create an equilibrium out there.
(04:49):
And I feel like at this time, possibly next year, I don't want to put a date on there, but at some point in the foreseeable future, in the near term, I want to say within the next 12 months, I feel like a lot of people are going to look up and be like, damn, rates are up 20 cents a mile year over year at this point.
And it's just not going to be a cataclysmic rise.
(05:11):
That was Covid.
I feel like that, like the fact that there's still a lot of people who are referring to that as like how it's going to change.
It's alarming to me because that was a black swan event that hopefully we never go through ever again out there.
So also I want to look at, you know, flatbed activity is stabilizing.
(05:31):
Flatbed.
Flatbed rates dropped.
Loads per truck increased to 22 and a half.
Showing some resilience compared to other modes out there.
And you know, again I, I look at flatbed as kinda the precursor for the rest of the freight market.
And this is just coming from somebody you guys like we do full truckload.
(05:52):
At the end of the day, 99 of my freight is shipped on an open deck, trailer, flatbed, step deck, Conestoga.
It's very slow out there from a new business development perspective.
And it's not even your typical rejections that we're hearing of.
We're not adding anybody.
Remove us from your list.
(06:13):
It's really a lot of work down as a business.
All right.
We should be working 60 hour weeks right now and we're barely getting 40 as it is.
Right.
So it's like, I look at, it is as there's a lot of stuff that is kind of on the hinges and you know, we need to not lose sight of focusing on the fundamentals right now more than ever.
(06:35):
And I'm going to kind of get into that here in a little bit.
But you know, I look at a lot of this market data and again, you can look for that sliver of hope.
You can find positivity and negativity in any market.
But I feel like now more than ever it has to be a heavy focus on internal processes, internal outreach.
What more can we do to get in front of more and more people?
(06:59):
Right?
Because it's not always going to be this way.
And it's, you know, realistically it's going to be one customer here or two customers there and eventually you're going to look up and you're gonna be like, dang, I got a pretty sizable book of business.
At the end of the day.
It just takes a lot of time.
And I, and I feel like now more than ever we just got to continue to focus on the basics, you guys, the fundamentals of what got your book of business where it is.
(07:23):
I do not feel like in my heart of hearts there is going to be something where everyone's going to be able to point to and say everything's going to get better and it's going to better by this time.
There's so much conflicting reports out there right now.
And I am going to speak from a pragmatic centric viewpoint.
There are two people, two types of people reporting data out there.
(07:46):
There's, there's the camp of I hope this country burns and fails.
Nothing is going to work that the current administration is currently doing out there.
And then there's the other side of is this is the greatest economic policies of all time.
Everything's going to be great.
Just wait and see.
And I try and look at it from as center of a viewpoint as possible because the.
(08:08):
I, you know, you guys, I literally have been banking my entire future on this business working, right?
So take this for what it's worth, I think it's way too early for anybody to have an actual stance on like how successful or detrimental things are going to be with the current trade climate that is going on out there.
(08:29):
But again, rest assured, you guys, we have the literal largest economy in the entire world.
So I view it as is like people are going to have to pay more money to do business with the United States of America because otherwise where are they going to go, right?
Like, they're not going to sell it anywhere else.
There's no other economy on planet Earth that buys at the level that the United States does.
I'm not here to talk about the national debt, which is obscenely high, but I look at it is there's a lot of stuff that are, that is going to take a lot of, a lot longer than most people want to admit on whether it's going to be successful or not out there.
(09:03):
And, and I truly feel like it takes a lot longer than a lot of people want.
We, we literally have a give it to me now mentality.
And that's just because like we can buy literally anything on Amazon and have it to ship to our house same day.
Right?
I was looking at a book this morning and I could have it in like four hours, which is just like ridiculous.
It's awesome.
Don't get me wrong, but I feel like a lot of these other areas of our life we try and transmit into as like a holistic viewpoint where this is the way that everything should be economies of our size take a long time to shift and grow.
(09:38):
All right?
It can happen.
I just think that a lot of individuals out there need to kind of pump the brakes on how good or how bad they think things are going to be.
Because if you go out there and look at any headline, it's like, if it hasn't happened within three minutes of the current administration dropping announcement out there, it's the end of the world.
Right?
So I feel like we kind of got to wait and see.
(10:00):
And I know that sucks because there's a lot of people out there who are, you know, maxed out with the way that they can handle a lot of this stuff because it has not been easy.
But I think that we got to stop looking for that instant result out there.
And I feel like it truly is going to come in a.
You know, it might be another year from now where people are going to look up and be like, damn, look at how much higher rates are than what they were out there.
(10:24):
So take that for what it's worth, you guys.
Again, this is just my opinion.
This is coming from somebody who actually does the work.
All right?
This podcast is built around what I do in my day to day, inside of my brokerage, inside of my business.
Although I am a pretty face, I'm not just a pretty faced and a phenomenal podcast voice.
(10:45):
I'm applying a lot of this stuff out there in building my business.
Okay?
So I feel all those exact same frustrations.
But at the end of the day, you guys, we got to focus on the basics and focus on the fundamentals and be in front of as many people as we possibly can.
All right, first article we are going to break down Today is from ttnews.com Truck tonnage slips out there from a SEC For a second consecutive month in June, the ATA index drops 0.4% as freight levels ease after a strong Q2 start.
(11:19):
The ATA seasonally adjusted for hire truck tonnage, fell to 113.3, down from 113.8 in May, marking a 4% or 0.4%.
Sorry, monthly decline and a 0.1% drop year over year out there.
This is two months of sequential decline.
Excuse me.
(11:40):
After rising in April, tonnage eased in both May and June, reflecting a sustained downtrend in freight volumes in late Q2 out there.
And then flat annual growth so far year to date compared to the same period in 2024.
Truck tonnage is only up 0.1% indicating little net expansion across the first half of the year.
(12:04):
And again I feel like there's a direct line with that of.
You know, again I've been very critical of the current administration's handling of tariffs in the sense of like it's like a fucking ping pong match.
At the end of the day it's like, oh, we're at 50% now, we're at 197,000%.
All right, we're going to ease it back down to 25%.
And this is all within in hours time it seems like out there.
(12:25):
So I feel like that has caused a lot of chaos in the market of like people's ability and want or desire to purchase inventory.
Right.
Because it's like shit man, it's at 50% now.
You go in and order your inventory and by the time the invoice is processed and you get it back, it's like, oh, it was up to 75%.
I mean there's just so much out there where I understand why a lot of people want to rescind and kind of wait and see on there.
(12:52):
Q2 it was balanced, but it was slightly weaker on a quarter to quarter basis, you guys.
Tonnage rose 0.2% versus Q1, but remains below 2024 levels.
And then again, you guys, there's mixed economic tailwinds out there.
The report cites modest gains in factory output and retail sales, but highlights soft construction activity, especially in single family homes and a drag as a drag on freight volumes.
(13:19):
And again, I couldn't agree with that more.
And again, this is just coming from somebody who is actively moves a lot of flatbed freight and like we are literally calling manufacturers inside of the building materials space on like on a daily basis, you guys.
And that 100% aligns with a lot of the feedback that we're getting from a lot of our prospects out there.
(13:41):
And then again, it's just the economic uncertainty of the tariffs going on out there.
That was another thing.
Trucking obviously is a key economic barometer out there.
You guys represents 70% of U.S. freight and reflects broader tendant trends in manufacturing.
I just look at you know like the truck tonnage overall, like the number.
(14:02):
I'm not going to say it's irrelevant.
I don't necessarily pay that much like that close attention to it than the specific number.
Yes, it matters.
Yes, that is a very clear indicator on the amount of freight that's being shipped.
But it's from my perspective it's just kind of like the driving sectors of our economy building being as slow as it is.
(14:25):
Out there.
I feel like that affects a lot of areas out there, you guys, but check that article out.
It is ttnews.com truck tonnage slips for a second consecutive month.
And in June out there, the next article that we're going to be breaking down.
And again, you guys, all the links to all of these articles I will put up in the show, notes and everything.
(14:46):
Again, please do your own research on this, you guys.
This is just me reading it and this is me just giving you guys my unbiased opinion on what I think a lot of this stuff means.
This article is from the joc.
This was pretty big breaking news this weekend.
The transatlantic trade war is averted as US and the European Union reach a weekend deal out there.
(15:11):
This happened yesterday.
President, the current, excuse me, President Trump and the European Commissioner, President Ursula Vaughn.
I'm going to botch this.
Name Ursula von der Leyen announced a landmark agreement that averts a looming transatlantic trade war.
The deal sets a baseline of 15% U.S. tariffs on most EU goods, down from a threatened 30%.
(15:37):
And it also includes an EU commitment to purchase 750 billion in American energy and military equipment and invest 600 billion in the U.S. over three years.
That's a large sum of money.
However, steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50% with some exceptions and further details still pending out there.
(16:03):
Sorry, let me stick to the stuff here.
The tariff or excuse me, the tariff reduction.
The final agreement PAC caps U.S. tariffs on most EU imports at 15%.
Steel and aluminum will remain stuck at 50%.
And I feel like that's one of those major commodities out there.
(16:23):
You know, again, you guys, how long was U.S. steel?
No, I'm not talking about the company, but like United States steel and aluminum, that was a major part of our economy for a long time.
So I don't think that the current administration is going to budge on that one at all because we can make that here.
(16:44):
You know, the buying US Energy and military goods again, I think it sounds great, but I also look at it as how is that going to affect our power usage?
I mean, I live in Arizona, we're good out here, but other parts of the country, not so much.
They're seeing a rise in power bills and everything else.
And it's going to be good to see though that the 600 billion dollar infrastructure and industries investment as well into US companies.
(17:11):
I mean that's like, I mean, we got a lot of investment coming here.
Foreign investment into the United States here from an infrastructure industry, an Industry's standpoint here coming up.
So I like that a lot.
And then stability and market response.
Markets generally reacted positively.
European stocks did rise.
(17:33):
The euro gained ground, reflecting relief that the trade confrontation has been avoided.
Both European and American businesses welcomed the deal, seen it as at least a. Yeah, it's, they're looking at others like that.
And then remaining uncertainties and political oversight.
The deal.
The deal still requires by the approval by the EU member states and lawmakers, leaving room for delay.
(17:57):
Critics point out uncertainty around implementation details and the possibility of future tariff adjustments, especially if EU commitments fall short.
Again, I just go back to the fact that yeah, it's going to take some time before it all rolls out, but I feel like most, I'm pretty sure the majority of EU countries are subsidized by us already.
(18:18):
So I don't see how many of them are going to push back at all.
But yeah, you know, again, you guys, I think like this is, it's a positive, right?
And that's what again I'm trying to make those correlations is this is a potential positive to increase in freight volumes out there as a whole, you guys, but check this one out as well@the joc.com and this is the transatlantic trade war averted as the EU and US reach weekend deal which again, I don't want any more tariff talk at the end of the day.
(18:54):
I want this to be fixed as soon as possible.
All right?
I want this fixed as soon as possible.
I want the ping pong match done and I want to like, just get back to like business as usual in the sense of like if you're out there prospecting customers, they don't have to worry about is my shit in the media today and is my inventory going to possibly be increased.
(19:15):
And yeah, so any positive step forward.
That's where I'm going to be focusing in on now the, the article, the gift that just seems to keep on giving out here, you guys.
And this is also from my friends over at the JOC and broker group warns against increased shipper 3 PL rate transparency.
(19:43):
Obviously you guys, broker transparency has been all over the news here for the last 18 months, I would say.
And it's, you know, it's one of those things that I feel like again, I understand why everybody advocates right?
Like I understand why Oida is on Capitol Hill advocating for all of this stuff to go out there and get the broker transparency passed and everything.
(20:08):
But you know, I look at what the definition of this actually is, right?
Because a lot of you will see it is and this is the literal definition of this.
All right, so it's the Federal Transparency, the FMCSA.
It's under Section 49C, as in Charlie F, as in Frank R's and Robert 371.3.
(20:30):
If you guys want to Google this on your own, go right ahead on this.
All right.
I would highly advise a lot of you to do this and to keep in mind that this has essentially been the definition since like the early 80s of what this is.
So it is records to be kept by brokers as published in the Code of Federal Regulations.
(20:57):
Number one, the name and address of the consigner.
The name, address and registration number of the motor carrier.
The bill of lading or freight bill number.
The amount of compensation received by the broker for the brokerage service performed and the name of the payer.
A description of any non broker services performed in connection with each shipment or activity.
(21:19):
The amount of compensation received for the service and the name of the payer and then the amount of any freight charges collected by the broker and the date of payment to the carrier.
This clause generally guarantees carriers and shippers the right to see the full transaction detail, including what the shipper paid and what the broker paid the carrier.
(21:42):
Give me just one second here.
So I want to look at this for what the definition was when this all kind of came out.
And this to me is that like I, I, I think the big misconception and this is an area of this clause that I, I personally would like to see cleaned up.
(22:11):
And again, I'm not sitting here saying, I want to be abundantly clear.
I do not advocate for price gouging.
I am a capitalist, but I believe in ethical capitalism and responsible capitalism.
At the end of the day I want everybody to make money in this.
But I feel like there's been a few key points that have been extremely blown out of proportion.
(22:32):
And one thing, and this isn't in the article.
This is just one thing that I've talked about in the show in the past.
And just based on the research that I've done, I feel like the relationship between a broker and a carrier has since changed since this was put into place.
Because if a carrier was to hire me, Chris Jolly, to go out there and find them dedicated freight that I was supposed to give directly to that carrier, I feel like this is applicable to this.
(23:07):
That's why I think dispatch companies, because dispatch services and companies, they are the ones who are not upheld to this.
All right, and this to me describes way more of the current landscape of a dispatch service than it does a freight brokerage operation.
Because I hire a carrier to do a load for me.
(23:30):
Now as a broker, the carrier does not hire me, the broker, to go out and find them dedicated freight.
There are dispatch services and then there are other companies in the industry that fall under this category way more than that.
Right.
Because we go out, we have the relationships initially with the shippers.
Right?
Like I'm not prospecting flatbed trucking companies to get flatbed shippers, all right?
(23:54):
I go out, I prospect manufacturers, I prospect clear shippers out there and I offer them transportation services.
And then it's my job on the back end to go in and find those trucking companies that are running those lanes.
I feel like the entire relationship between a broker and a carrier has flip flopped based on when this law was written.
(24:17):
And I feel like that is what we should be advocating for, is the change of that.
And I truly feel like dispatch services, dispatch companies as a whole, they are the ones that need to have their records audited more than anything because I feel like that aligns way more with them because the entire landscape has changed.
(24:37):
Right.
That's, that's just my opinion on this.
And, and I feel like this is one of those things that isn't going to go away until the market shifts and then a lot of people have a selective memory when they're all making money out there.
But I truly think that we need to be fighting for a change in the definition of how this is done.
(24:59):
Because again, broker or carriers aren't hiring brokers anymore to go out and find them dedicated freight.
That agreement doesn't exist.
Well, I'm sure it does exist, but like, I just haven't personally seen it out there and I feel like that affects more dispatch services than not.
And this.
So back into the article here, you guys.
(25:20):
It says TIA CEO Chris Burrows said in a statement that OIDIS call for rate disclosure from brokers isn't about protecting truckers.
It's about handing private business information over to competitors under the guise of transparency.
If enacted, the rule or statutory provision would set a dangerous precedent not just for the logistics industry, but for all sectors of the American economy.
(25:43):
Will General Motors be forced to disclose what it pays for steel?
Will Walmart have to publish its vendor contracts?
And then the.
The competitive market depends on private negotiations.
This proposal dismantles it.
And then the TIA represents obviously brokers, about three quarters of which make less than 15 million in annual revenue.
(26:05):
And then requiring these firms to disclose negotiated pricing would increase administrative burdens, narrow margins and risk enforcement and risk forcing many to close.
And then this won't stop at brokers.
And then government interference says existing FMCSA regulations requires brokers to keep records.
We already talked about that.
(26:26):
And then among the mandates on the table in the proposed rulemaking, brokers would be required to keep transactional records in electronic format.
Oida, which represents 150,000 small trucking businesses, argued in January comments supporting the new rule making that a lack of transparency leads to a loss of issues such as unfair charges, delayed payments, fraudulent practices.
(26:49):
Burroughs meanwhile argued that carriers have access to a range of tools that can give clarity on rate levels, their load boards, rate benchmarking tools and widespread technology platforms that already support real time competitive freight Marketplace forcing rate disclosure adds government interference where none is needed.
(27:10):
Listen, at the end of the day, like I said, I truly feel in my heart of hearts that the verbiage inside of this needs to be reworked.
There needs to be a revised clarity on what this actually means, this transaction.
Who's hiring who?
All right.
And I think that is where the real gray area lies is when this statute was implemented in there, you guys, carriers hired brokers, it is since reversed.
(27:41):
Okay?
So again I'm not here saying that like you know, price gouging all this stuff.
I'm not advocating for anything other than we need to clarify this.
And then I truly feel like I'm not pointing the finger in another direction, but I feel like dispatch companies out there who are in actively involved in these negotiations, you guys, at the end of the day, I think they need to be brought in and held to the exact same standards as a broker because they are literally brokering in my opinion.
(28:10):
I mean not everybody, but in my opinion some of these dispatch companies are out there, they are brokering, they are taking their cut or God knows what cut they're taking.
And if our records are going to be on the table to be reviewed, their records better be on that exact same table.
And I feel like that is where the common ground will eventually come to because this is, this isn't going to go away anytime soon at the end of the day.
(28:36):
But take that for what it's worth you guys.
Again, that is, that article was from the JOC broker group.
Warrants against increased shipper rate transparency.
And then one more time you guys, if you guys just want to search for it, just put FMCSA 49 CFR.
That's Charlie, Frank, Roger, FMCSA 49 CFR 3371.3.
(29:03):
Google that.
That will give you guys an entire layout of all that.
But I'd love to hear from you guys right at the end of the day, I want to hear from you guys about this because I put my stance out there.
I'm not going to change my opinion on that.
But I want to hear your guys's opinion on this as well because this isn't seemingly go away.
I don't want drivers to go out of business.
I don't want carriers to go out of business out there.
I just don't think that brokers make as much money as they think that we all make on these transactions.
(29:27):
But that will be it for today, ladies and gentlemen.
As always, if you got value in what you heard, subscribe to the show.
You guys, if you're feeling really ambitious after this one, which you should be, rank the show on itunes and Spotify because if you saw value, your network's going to see value as well.
I appreciate you guys.
I love you guys and we'll be talking to you soon.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
Came back with a bank hey got the gas pedal to the metal when I'm get to the back a Got the foot on the gas pedal to the metal when the lane move fast a Let them all cross if they hate and let them hate them make a bigger boss a.
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