Today we sit down with Roberto Toncig, a retired Italian Army and former Government Executive with 40+ years of experience in the field of Defence and Security. He spent over two decades in steeped in International Relations and Security, most of them spent in challenging positions at various Italian Embassies abroad.
In addition to Italian and fantastic English, Roberto speaks German, French, Serbo-Croatian, and Russian. In his post-government work, Roberto is an advisor at Leonardo focused on Regional Security for this global defense, security, and aerospace giant.
We connected with Roberto thanks to friend of the show and longtime senior intelligence officer Glenn Corn. In this episode, we dive into Italy’s security organizations and get Roberto’s expert perspectives on Italy and Europe’s positioning in light of conflict in Russia and Ukraine, energy security, China, the Mediterranean, and regional stability.
With that, please enjoy this deep dive into all things security-related in Europe.
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Show Notes:
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Meet Roberto Tonseg: A Veteran in Defense and Security
03:19 Italy's National Security Framework
05:59 Europe's Response to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
08:31 Challenges and Strategies for European Security
12:05 Energy Security and Immigration in Europe
18:19 China's Global Influence and Strategic Concerns
25:39 Personal Reflections and Final Thoughts
28:18 Sponsor Message and Conclusion
00:46 Meet Roberto Tonseg: A Veteran in Defense and Security
03:19 Italy's National Security Framework
05:59 Europe's Response to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
08:31 Challenges and Strategies for European Security
12:05 Energy Security and Immigration in Europe
18:19 China's Global Influence and Strategic Concerns
25:39 Personal Reflections and Final Thoughts
28:18 Sponsor Message and Conclusion
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:01):
You know, our Prime Minister is suggestinga sort of Article 5 for Ukraine.
So instead sending boots on theground, which will be very difficult
and very little effective now, givingUkraine a, let's say, an Article
5 status, which means, uh, beingwilling to help, to provide active
(00:24):
security measures for Ukraine.
Welcome to Combat Story.
I'm Ryan Fugit, and I served war zonetours as an army attack helicopter pilot
and CIA officer over a 15 year career.
I'm fascinated by the experiencesof the elite in combat.
On this show, I interview some ofthe best to understand what combat
felt like on their front lines.
This is Combat Story.
(00:46):
Today we sit down with Roberto Tonseg.
A retired Italian army and formergovernment executive with over 40
years of experience in the fieldof defense and security, spent over
two decades steeped in internationalrelations and security affairs, most
of them spent in challenging positionsat various Italian embassies abroad.
In addition to Italian and fantasticEnglish, Roberto also speaks German,
(01:11):
French, Serbo Croatian, and Russian.
In his post government work, Robertois an advisor at Leonardo focused
on regional security for this globaldefense security and aerospace giant.
We connected with Roberto thanks tofriend of the show and longtime senior
intelligence officer, Glenn Korn.
In this episode, we dive intoItaly's security organizations and
(01:33):
get Roberto's expert perspectiveson Italy and Europe's positioning in
light of the conflict in Russia andUkraine, energy security, China, the
Mediterranean and regional stability.
With that, please enjoy thisdeep dive into all things
security related in Europe.
with Roberto Tonsig.
Roberto, thank you so much for takingtime to sit down with us and, and chat
(01:57):
with us about what's going on globally.
Hi, Ryan.
Thank you for having me.
It's really a pleasure and anexciting experience for me.
Yeah.
I think I speak for all of ourlisteners when I say I'm jealous.
that you are in Rome and I am not,um, I'd like, I'd like to start many
of our listeners know Glenn very welland Glenn put you and I together.
(02:17):
He connected us and I was justwondering if you could share, how
do you and Glenn know each other?
Where, where did youmeet or how did you meet?
Um, we met during one common assignment.
abroad.
So we run into it was, yeah, intoone of these many social occasions.
And then we develop a closer link,sharing books, interests, and stories.
(02:42):
So it, it was, it is avery nice friendship.
That's interesting.
Um, any Any interesting books that Glennhas recommended that you think that
the audience might find interesting?
I think you know them all.
I think you know them all.
I suggested him recently a book by Volkov.
(03:04):
It's called The Setup.
It's a very interesting novel.
I'm curious to hear from Glenn if heever had an opportunity to read the book.
Alright, I'll question him on it.
We'll put it in the shownotes so people can see.
So, Roberto, if I could just, asI mentioned before we hit record,
the audience generally is American,not as familiar with Italy's, uh,
(03:29):
national security organizations, butthey are very familiar with the U.
S., with the DNI, theCIA, FBI, the military.
What does that look like in Italy?
Uh, just given your background withboth the army in Italy and then
civil service for many, many years.
In Italy, our organization isless complicated than yours,
(03:51):
Because we're able to mess up ina, in a, uh, simple, uh, setup.
We have, of course, the defense.
And Ministry of Defense andArmed Forces, they have their own
security, uh, structures withintheir organization that takes care
of the, let's say, the tactical,mostly tactical intelligence needs.
(04:15):
And then we have, uh, a strategic,a strategic organization, which is
attached to the prime minister office.
So it's one of the instrumentsof executive power.
There is a department for,um, information for security.
It's called, which is the, um, the.
strategic setting, uh,element of the organization.
(04:38):
And under this, this department,you have two operational agency.
One is for the internal and one is forthe foreign intelligence and security.
This department and the twoagency are the the tools.
Then we have a political head, which isthe prime minister that usually appoints
a dedicated undersecretary of state tocoordinate all intelligence activities.
(05:03):
What we have, we have a very welldeveloped, uh, check and balances
system for the intelligence community.
There is a parliamentaryoversight committee.
The test the faculty and has the rightto interview the heads of the agencies
or other relevant figures and the thecomposition of this committee is 50
(05:25):
percent is ruling majority 50 percent isthe opposition and the head of the control
committee has to be from the opposition.
It's, I think it's a very effectiveway to have this, uh, control.
They cannot interfere, of course, withthe ongoing operations, but there is
a lot that they can, uh, deal with.
(05:48):
Interesting.
Yeah.
Um, the less complex it can be, thebetter, certainly not, not the way that
we always tend to operate over here onthis side of the, uh, of the Atlantic.
Um, as we look at, uh, President Trumpand this new administration, some of
the things that have happened justglobally when it comes to international
(06:09):
security with Russia, um, and Ukrainein particular recently, um, um, The U.
S. has pulled back aid for Ukraine.
Europe has made quite a statementcollectively talking about increasing
aid going into, uh, into Ukraine andsupporting their efforts from what you
(06:29):
have seen and the time that you've spentfocused on security on the continent
and looking at Russia and Ukraine.
What are some of your thoughtsfor how Italy needs to respond,
given its strategic position withinEU and NATO, but also just in
general, what Europe's doing now?
It's the trillion dollar question.
I am, I was born in 1958.
(06:53):
So I'm a boomer.
Okay.
And I grew up with this steady imageof a benevolent Uncle Sam, and Uncle
Sam has thrown a bit away from us.
I think it's, it's a big shock for Europe.
And it's a healthy shop though.
It was needed in a way.
I think Europe went a bit astray.
(07:16):
One definition that I hear from an Italianjournalist, a senior journalist, is
that Europe is a grass eating monster.
So we, we did neglecton our security issues.
I mean, maybe with the exception ofthe, for sure, the UK and also France,
(07:36):
but all the other countries, we a bitneglected this and we have been completely
relying on the NATO umbrella for oursecurity, which is okay, in a way.
Now everything is under discussionand We have to rush to do something.
What to do is, is, is the big question.
Now, the first response that I seenow is, uh, the availability of,
(08:00):
uh, funds for, um, uh, rearmamentof the, of the continent.
Is this enough?
I don't think it's, it's enough.
Because if you look at At the, at whatwe spend as Europe, at the aggregate
defense expenditure of Europe and thatof Russia, we spend twice as much.
So why are we in this position?
(08:23):
I think because we were too muchfocused on our national perspective,
and there is a lack of integration.
And years ago, I was studying a littlebit the Strategic Compass, which is
the document that the European Union,refers to in, in directing the, um,
(08:46):
procurement policies and, and in general,in directing the security strategy and
the European strategic compass was.
completely forgetting about theMediterranean and giving just paying
just lip service to our eastern frontier.
In the same time, we were talking inwithin this, this important document
(09:08):
about the Indo Pacific, which is perfect.
It's, it's nice.
It's, it's needed, but maybe weshould first concentrate a little
bit, uh, on our own backyard.
And this has not been done.
So now, again, the European response wasabout money, is about money, and there
(09:29):
are also difficulties here, especially forhighly in depth country like Italy, like
my own, but there is little talk aboutcreating a joint European command center.
So we don't have real C2capabilities, command and control.
(09:50):
Around the world, I think wehave, uh, 21 or something like
this, uh, European missions.
Most of them are CIMIC,Civil Military Corporation.
Nine, I think, are purelymilitary, but the deployment
total is under 5, 000 people.
So we don't have still the instrumentsto manage a big military force.
(10:13):
So we need to have this, and we haveto have, uh, also a political mechanism
that is different, that needs to be.
different from the current one.
You know that Europe, in Europe, alldecision has to be taken anonymously.
Which is hard.
So hard.
Which is, which is, uh, I mean,Europe was, the European dream
(10:37):
was born to avoid confrontations.
It was a war plagued continentthat finally found a way
to live together in peace.
Now we can, we have to come to terms thatit's not what is the situation nowadays.
So you can easily understand thatthis, the sensitivity of the single
(11:01):
states and the single, uh, populationstowards, uh, an external threat, like
the, the one that nowadays Russiaseems to pose is completely different.
Baltic states, they will have,uh, the willingness to do whatever
it takes to defend themselves.
(11:22):
It's less so maybe in Italy.
It's less so maybe in Spain.
In other places of Europe, where the, theperception of the danger is different.
Maybe we have, in Italy, we have ahigh perception of danger coming from
the Mediterranean, which probablyFinland doesn't care much of.
Yeah.
(11:42):
So you see that this shock is healthybecause it brings finally to to the
forefront these themes that havebeen for so many years neglected.
It's very interesting.
The when you say the Mediterranean forpeople listening, is it fair to say,
um, certainly in the post nine 11 andcounterterrorism fight, there is a
(12:02):
concern of, you know, foreign fighters.
Coming into Europe when you describe theMediterranean, what comes to mind for you
just for Americans to kind of understandwhen you talk about the Mediterranean,
it's the huge immigration pressure thatwe're facing and it's the energy route.
Let's see, we have two big energy routes,one coming from east, from Russia,
(12:27):
and then southwards, and the otherone is coming from, from Libya, from
Algeria, in part, now also from Turkey.
So, the, the big issues here are, uh,yeah, terrorism, especially though
it's, uh, immigration and energy.
Yeah.
(12:47):
And Roberto, you've obviously, youmentioned Russia, um, being in your
backyard, effectively, as you describedthis, the Mediterranean Russia in
your backyard, you've spent quitea bit of time looking at security
in your career, in particular, youknow, looking at Russia, as you look
at both the US position with Okay.
(13:10):
The Kremlin right now and what'sgoing on with Russia and Ukraine.
Is there anything you would advise,um, world leaders, not just in the U S
but in the EU as well to do to betterposition themselves against Russia?
In the future from what you know,having worked this issue for so long,
(13:33):
I think we need to engage with Russia.
We have to find a way to engagewith Russia and think about the
results of our actions of our words.
There must be some level ofstrategic empathy to be rebuilt.
We have deep, uh, connections withRussia, Italy, Europe in general, and
(13:56):
Russia, we share culture, we sharemusic, we share economical interests,
so there must be, we have to somehowto amend this, of course, this depends
a lot on the, on the counterparts, sowe have to, to be very clear and set a
common European um, strategic interestif you want to engage with Russia.
(14:19):
And this is currently not the case.
We are still going, uh, spotwise, nation by nation by nation.
For example, now there is the debateof a European force to protect Ukraine.
They say the peacekeeping force.
Would it be a peacekeeping force?
I'm not very sure.
If we can, uh, name it as apeacekeeping force, it should
(14:42):
be a peace enforcement force orbetter say that a deterrence force.
Who is willing in, in Europeto engage in an open military
confrontation with Russia?
So these are the, again, it's,it's, We still have no common view.
(15:04):
I think it's a, the debate issterile about the responsibilities.
The responsibilities are very clear.
There was one nation thatcrossed the borders of another
nation with their tanks.
So it's, That discloses for meany, any other, you know, fear
of NATO enlargement and this.
(15:27):
Yeah, everything is true, buteverything could be, could
have been dealt differently.
I was going to ask, if you look forwardthree, four months, what do you think
the situation will be with Russiaand Ukraine at that point in time?
I hope there will be a stop to bloodshed.
on both sides.
The, the framework within thisis going to take place because I
(15:50):
think it's going to take place.
It's, it's still very foggy to me.
It could be a ceasefire, it couldbe some sort of peace agreement.
There will be or not be, uh,security guarantees for Ukraine.
You know, our Prime Minister is suggestinga sort or Article five for Ukraine.
(16:17):
So instead sending boots onthe ground, which will be very
difficult and very little effective.
Now giving Ukraine a a Arctic,let's say an Article five status.
which means, uh, being willing to helpto provide active security measures
(16:39):
for Ukraine could be a good way toend this, uh, to, to, to give Ukraine
some, uh, effective security guarantee.
But going back to your question, I thinkin three, four months, The shooting
could be ended in a way or another.
If this is going to be with a completedefeat of Ukraine, I'm not sure.
(17:05):
I surely hope not so.
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And now if we pivot slightly to AsiaPacific, as you mentioned, important for,
for Italy and the EU, but also not exactlyyour backyard, your work now in the, you
(18:32):
know, private sector focuses on differentparts of the world, not necessarily
Asia, but I'm sure there's Asianinfluence from China all over the world.
Could you just speak?
how you see Chinese influenceglobally and some of the international
security concerns that you face oranticipate with China from a European
(18:54):
perspective or Italian perspective?
The pressure of Chinese intellectualproperty predation is growing
by day by day and we feel it.
One of the outcomes that maybethis current administration is
trying to, to reach is distancingaway a bit Russia from China.
(19:17):
It could be one of the reasonsfor this dramatic changes.
I think China is looking at what, what'shappening in Ukraine with interest,
but it's still not willing to enter.
in a direct confrontation with the West.
There is the question of Taiwanlooming, and at some point
(19:38):
something is going to happen.
I, I wonder if the rare earth deal withUkraine has something to do with this.
How so?
Interesting.
I hadn't put that together.
Yeah, I mean, Taiwan is, is one of thebiggest, uh, sources for rare earth.
So if you can have analternative, it could be helpful.
(20:00):
It's strategic thinking,it's supply chain.
So China has set themselves asa, as a definite world power now.
They don't need to have therecognition that somebody else
is so desperately looking for.
So I think things are evolvingpositively for them without
needing further engagement or ahigher level of confrontation.
(20:26):
And then maybe the last, as we kindof look back to European security,
you mentioned energy with, uh, kindof the Northern and Southern streams,
um, but just energy security ingeneral, how do you see that playing
out, um, with Europe's overallsecurity in general, how inner.
(20:47):
Connected.
Is that you might Youmean the energy supply?
Yeah, energy in general.
Energy supply.
Energy security with, withEurope's thinking energy security.
I think it's one of the, themain, if not the main, along with
immigration, control of immigration.
It's one of the main securityissues that Europe has and all the
(21:09):
drama around the North Stream too.
Yeah, proven this.
I think very clearly to everybody.
We in Italy, we still have a nonew, no nuclear power policy.
I think this needs to be revisedand it's going to be revived.
It's part of this, you know, ofthis, um, dream of a perfect Europe.
(21:31):
So we, we blame the Americansto be arrogant very frequently.
But I think we have ourdose of arrogance as well.
We wanted to be the best andthe cleanest and all of this,
uh, green energy and everything.
So no, we need to, um, diversifyour energy, uh, input influx, and
(21:55):
we did it successfully after the,the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Uh, but we need to develop ourcapability to produce, uh, energy.
And for, for us, uh,to the nuclear option.
I think it's the, theonly real feasible one.
And I think it goes hand in hand with,um, with artificial intelligence and
(22:17):
the way things are going with theenergy requirements needed there.
And for people to want to competeand stay, stay competitive.
Energy is going to be a keypart of that going forward.
So having the nuclearcapability will be yes.
And in general, in terms of, of, um,economic security, there is a much
criticism on the, on the tariffs now.
(22:41):
Yeah, issue of tariffs, but Ithink Europe has a lot to do.
We have to do our own homework.
There were recently studies that the setof regulations and norms for internal
commerce in Europe is equivalent to a41 percent tariff on internal trade.
(23:04):
Wow.
So before, you know, okay, it's not nice.
Tariffs are, to me, a very dangerousinstrument for both who applies
them and who receives them.
But we can also improve oureconomical security by making life
easier for ourselves by ourselves.
(23:24):
Yeah.
Yeah.
Interesting point.
You know, it reminds me tariffs areso front and center now, just with the
way the Trump administration has beenusing them, um, with, with China and
the rest of the world for so long thathas been, you know, sanctions have
been another measure that people use.
(23:45):
to incentivize or, or change course.
What have you seen in terms of sanctionslevied, whether Russia or other entities,
how effective have you seen thosebe over your time in civil service?
I don't think they weredramatically effective.
Yeah.
We started our conversationreferring to books.
(24:05):
One of.
The books I read to you a couple ofyears ago, it's called Disrupting Time.
It's the very interesting story ofan American watchmaker, Walting.
They were the number one, at one point,they introduced new ways of working, a new
organization of work, industrialization.
(24:28):
So, at one point in time, Theybecame the number one worldwide and
then in Switzerland, especially inSwitzerland, they started building
up a very strong competition.
So what was the response?
Tariffs.
Okay.
Okay.
This nurtured the Americanmarket for a couple of decades.
(24:51):
But then at the end.
It brought the, to the collapse ofthe American watchmaker industry.
So it's a very interesting story, I think.
Yeah.
And by the way, within thisstory, there was a very nice
intelligence addendum because the.
The Swiss sent a couple of undercoverexperts to the Centennial exhibition,
(25:17):
and they picked all what they neededto pick up from the Americans, brought
it back to Switzerland, applied thisinto the Swiss framework, and then
managed to revolutionize the market.
It's a very interesting story.
It's its own intellectual property.
insights and intelligence.
(25:39):
Um, Roberto, just on, on moreof a personal note, I'm curious,
you've, you've had a very longcareer in civil service, in the
military, um, in the private sector.
Are there one or two places you'vevisited that you just really
love or think back on fondly?
Yes, but I'm not supposed to mention them.
(26:02):
Well, it doesn't have to bein an operational context.
You could have just visited maybe.
Oh, a visit.
Many place and my postings were,uh, extended over several years.
So it's clear that you develop a bond,you develop an interest to the people,
to the culture, to the nature of places.
(26:22):
Today, maybe just pam pam shooting out.
It's, uh, Serbia, Montenegro.
Yeah, maybe, maybe because my eldestson is coming today with his new
girlfriend and she's from Montenegro.
So
perfect.
Perfect.
Yeah.
Well, Roberta, I'm soappreciative of the time.
(26:45):
Is there anything else you'd wantto leave this American audience
with as, uh, as we wrap up here?
I want appeal to the American folks.
Yes, of course.
That don't consider us random nationsas somebody recently say, remember
that we fought along you, you freedus from the Nazi fascist regimes.
(27:11):
And I think we, we gave backwhat we needed to give back.
I have friends, comrades that werewounded, killed in operations around
the world along your brave soldiers.
So, Europe really loves the Statesand you should be considering a
(27:34):
little bit our emotions as well.
Agreed.
We, uh, just, just for people listening,obviously, who know my background,
um, many European nations supportedus post 9 11, very closely in the
battlefields and in the shadows as well.
Um, it goes.
You know, they may nothave seen all of that.
(27:55):
Of course, they were right there with us.
So, well said Roberto.
Thank you so much for the time.
Enjoy your time with your son.
I really appreciate it.
Thank you for having me.
Maybe we'll do something in the future.
I hope so.
I hope so.
Celebrating a stableand long lasting peace.
(28:17):
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You know, our Prime Minister is suggestinga sort of Article 5 for Ukraine.
So instead sending boots on theground, which will be very difficult
and very little effective now, givingUkraine a, let's say, an Article
5 status, which means, uh, beingwilling to help, to provide active
(00:24):
security measures for Ukraine.
Welcome to Combat Story.
I'm Ryan Fugit, and I served war zonetours as an army attack helicopter pilot
and CIA officer over a 15 year career.
I'm fascinated by the experiencesof the elite in combat.
On this show, I interview some ofthe best to understand what combat
felt like on their front lines.
This is Combat Story.
(00:46):
Today we sit down with Roberto Tonseg.
A retired Italian army and formergovernment executive with over 40
years of experience in the fieldof defense and security, spent over
two decades steeped in internationalrelations and security affairs, most
of them spent in challenging positionsat various Italian embassies abroad.
In addition to Italian and fantasticEnglish, Roberto also speaks German,
(01:11):
French, Serbo Croatian, and Russian.
In his post government work, Robertois an advisor at Leonardo focused
on regional security for this globaldefense security and aerospace giant.
We connected with Roberto thanks tofriend of the show and longtime senior
intelligence officer, Glenn Korn.
In this episode, we dive intoItaly's security organizations and
(01:33):
get Roberto's expert perspectiveson Italy and Europe's positioning in
light of the conflict in Russia andUkraine, energy security, China, the
Mediterranean and regional stability.
With that, please enjoy thisdeep dive into all things
security related in Europe.
with Roberto Tonsig.
Roberto, thank you so much for takingtime to sit down with us and, and chat
(01:57):
with us about what's going on globally.
Hi, Ryan.
Thank you for having me.
It's really a pleasure and anexciting experience for me.
Yeah.
I think I speak for all of ourlisteners when I say I'm jealous.
that you are in Rome and I am not,um, I'd like, I'd like to start many
of our listeners know Glenn very welland Glenn put you and I together.
(02:17):
He connected us and I was justwondering if you could share, how
do you and Glenn know each other?
Where, where did youmeet or how did you meet?
Um, we met during one common assignment.
abroad.
So we run into it was, yeah, intoone of these many social occasions.
And then we develop a closer link,sharing books, interests, and stories.
(02:42):
So it, it was, it is avery nice friendship.
That's interesting.
Um, any Any interesting books that Glennhas recommended that you think that
the audience might find interesting?
I think you know them all.
I think you know them all.
I suggested him recently a book by Volkov.
(03:04):
It's called The Setup.
It's a very interesting novel.
I'm curious to hear from Glenn if heever had an opportunity to read the book.
Alright, I'll question him on it.
We'll put it in the shownotes so people can see.
So, Roberto, if I could just, asI mentioned before we hit record,
the audience generally is American,not as familiar with Italy's, uh,
(03:29):
national security organizations, butthey are very familiar with the U.
S., with the DNI, theCIA, FBI, the military.
What does that look like in Italy?
Uh, just given your background withboth the army in Italy and then
civil service for many, many years.
In Italy, our organization isless complicated than yours,
(03:51):
Because we're able to mess up ina, in a, uh, simple, uh, setup.
We have, of course, the defense.
And Ministry of Defense andArmed Forces, they have their own
security, uh, structures withintheir organization that takes care
of the, let's say, the tactical,mostly tactical intelligence needs.
(04:15):
And then we have, uh, a strategic,a strategic organization, which is
attached to the prime minister office.
So it's one of the instrumentsof executive power.
There is a department for,um, information for security.
It's called, which is the, um, the.
strategic setting, uh,element of the organization.
(04:38):
And under this, this department,you have two operational agency.
One is for the internal and one is forthe foreign intelligence and security.
This department and the twoagency are the the tools.
Then we have a political head, which isthe prime minister that usually appoints
a dedicated undersecretary of state tocoordinate all intelligence activities.
(05:03):
What we have, we have a very welldeveloped, uh, check and balances
system for the intelligence community.
There is a parliamentaryoversight committee.
The test the faculty and has the rightto interview the heads of the agencies
or other relevant figures and the thecomposition of this committee is 50
(05:25):
percent is ruling majority 50 percent isthe opposition and the head of the control
committee has to be from the opposition.
It's, I think it's a very effectiveway to have this, uh, control.
They cannot interfere, of course, withthe ongoing operations, but there is
a lot that they can, uh, deal with.
(05:48):
Interesting.
Yeah.
Um, the less complex it can be, thebetter, certainly not, not the way that
we always tend to operate over here onthis side of the, uh, of the Atlantic.
Um, as we look at, uh, President Trumpand this new administration, some of
the things that have happened justglobally when it comes to international
(06:09):
security with Russia, um, and Ukrainein particular recently, um, um, The U.
S. has pulled back aid for Ukraine.
Europe has made quite a statementcollectively talking about increasing
aid going into, uh, into Ukraine andsupporting their efforts from what you
(06:29):
have seen and the time that you've spentfocused on security on the continent
and looking at Russia and Ukraine.
What are some of your thoughtsfor how Italy needs to respond,
given its strategic position withinEU and NATO, but also just in
general, what Europe's doing now?
It's the trillion dollar question.
I am, I was born in 1958.
(06:53):
So I'm a boomer.
Okay.
And I grew up with this steady imageof a benevolent Uncle Sam, and Uncle
Sam has thrown a bit away from us.
I think it's, it's a big shock for Europe.
And it's a healthy shop though.
It was needed in a way.
I think Europe went a bit astray.
(07:16):
One definition that I hear from an Italianjournalist, a senior journalist, is
that Europe is a grass eating monster.
So we, we did neglecton our security issues.
I mean, maybe with the exception ofthe, for sure, the UK and also France,
(07:36):
but all the other countries, we a bitneglected this and we have been completely
relying on the NATO umbrella for oursecurity, which is okay, in a way.
Now everything is under discussionand We have to rush to do something.
What to do is, is, is the big question.
Now, the first response that I seenow is, uh, the availability of,
(08:00):
uh, funds for, um, uh, rearmamentof the, of the continent.
Is this enough?
I don't think it's, it's enough.
Because if you look at At the, at whatwe spend as Europe, at the aggregate
defense expenditure of Europe and thatof Russia, we spend twice as much.
So why are we in this position?
(08:23):
I think because we were too muchfocused on our national perspective,
and there is a lack of integration.
And years ago, I was studying a littlebit the Strategic Compass, which is
the document that the European Union,refers to in, in directing the, um,
(08:46):
procurement policies and, and in general,in directing the security strategy and
the European strategic compass was.
completely forgetting about theMediterranean and giving just paying
just lip service to our eastern frontier.
In the same time, we were talking inwithin this, this important document
(09:08):
about the Indo Pacific, which is perfect.
It's, it's nice.
It's, it's needed, but maybe weshould first concentrate a little
bit, uh, on our own backyard.
And this has not been done.
So now, again, the European response wasabout money, is about money, and there
(09:29):
are also difficulties here, especially forhighly in depth country like Italy, like
my own, but there is little talk aboutcreating a joint European command center.
So we don't have real C2capabilities, command and control.
(09:50):
Around the world, I think wehave, uh, 21 or something like
this, uh, European missions.
Most of them are CIMIC,Civil Military Corporation.
Nine, I think, are purelymilitary, but the deployment
total is under 5, 000 people.
So we don't have still the instrumentsto manage a big military force.
(10:13):
So we need to have this, and we haveto have, uh, also a political mechanism
that is different, that needs to be.
different from the current one.
You know that Europe, in Europe, alldecision has to be taken anonymously.
Which is hard.
So hard.
Which is, which is, uh, I mean,Europe was, the European dream
(10:37):
was born to avoid confrontations.
It was a war plagued continentthat finally found a way
to live together in peace.
Now we can, we have to come to terms thatit's not what is the situation nowadays.
So you can easily understand thatthis, the sensitivity of the single
(11:01):
states and the single, uh, populationstowards, uh, an external threat, like
the, the one that nowadays Russiaseems to pose is completely different.
Baltic states, they will have,uh, the willingness to do whatever
it takes to defend themselves.
(11:22):
It's less so maybe in Italy.
It's less so maybe in Spain.
In other places of Europe, where the, theperception of the danger is different.
Maybe we have, in Italy, we have ahigh perception of danger coming from
the Mediterranean, which probablyFinland doesn't care much of.
Yeah.
(11:42):
So you see that this shock is healthybecause it brings finally to to the
forefront these themes that havebeen for so many years neglected.
It's very interesting.
The when you say the Mediterranean forpeople listening, is it fair to say,
um, certainly in the post nine 11 andcounterterrorism fight, there is a
(12:02):
concern of, you know, foreign fighters.
Coming into Europe when you describe theMediterranean, what comes to mind for you
just for Americans to kind of understandwhen you talk about the Mediterranean,
it's the huge immigration pressure thatwe're facing and it's the energy route.
Let's see, we have two big energy routes,one coming from east, from Russia,
(12:27):
and then southwards, and the otherone is coming from, from Libya, from
Algeria, in part, now also from Turkey.
So, the, the big issues here are, uh,yeah, terrorism, especially though
it's, uh, immigration and energy.
Yeah.
(12:47):
And Roberto, you've obviously, youmentioned Russia, um, being in your
backyard, effectively, as you describedthis, the Mediterranean Russia in
your backyard, you've spent quitea bit of time looking at security
in your career, in particular, youknow, looking at Russia, as you look
at both the US position with Okay.
(13:10):
The Kremlin right now and what'sgoing on with Russia and Ukraine.
Is there anything you would advise,um, world leaders, not just in the U S
but in the EU as well to do to betterposition themselves against Russia?
In the future from what you know,having worked this issue for so long,
(13:33):
I think we need to engage with Russia.
We have to find a way to engagewith Russia and think about the
results of our actions of our words.
There must be some level ofstrategic empathy to be rebuilt.
We have deep, uh, connections withRussia, Italy, Europe in general, and
(13:56):
Russia, we share culture, we sharemusic, we share economical interests,
so there must be, we have to somehowto amend this, of course, this depends
a lot on the, on the counterparts, sowe have to, to be very clear and set a
common European um, strategic interestif you want to engage with Russia.
(14:19):
And this is currently not the case.
We are still going, uh, spotwise, nation by nation by nation.
For example, now there is the debateof a European force to protect Ukraine.
They say the peacekeeping force.
Would it be a peacekeeping force?
I'm not very sure.
If we can, uh, name it as apeacekeeping force, it should
(14:42):
be a peace enforcement force orbetter say that a deterrence force.
Who is willing in, in Europeto engage in an open military
confrontation with Russia?
So these are the, again, it's,it's, We still have no common view.
(15:04):
I think it's a, the debate issterile about the responsibilities.
The responsibilities are very clear.
There was one nation thatcrossed the borders of another
nation with their tanks.
So it's, That discloses for meany, any other, you know, fear
of NATO enlargement and this.
(15:27):
Yeah, everything is true, buteverything could be, could
have been dealt differently.
I was going to ask, if you look forwardthree, four months, what do you think
the situation will be with Russiaand Ukraine at that point in time?
I hope there will be a stop to bloodshed.
on both sides.
The, the framework within thisis going to take place because I
(15:50):
think it's going to take place.
It's, it's still very foggy to me.
It could be a ceasefire, it couldbe some sort of peace agreement.
There will be or not be, uh,security guarantees for Ukraine.
You know, our Prime Minister is suggestinga sort or Article five for Ukraine.
(16:17):
So instead sending boots onthe ground, which will be very
difficult and very little effective.
Now giving Ukraine a a Arctic,let's say an Article five status.
which means, uh, being willing to helpto provide active security measures
(16:39):
for Ukraine could be a good way toend this, uh, to, to, to give Ukraine
some, uh, effective security guarantee.
But going back to your question, I thinkin three, four months, The shooting
could be ended in a way or another.
If this is going to be with a completedefeat of Ukraine, I'm not sure.
(17:05):
I surely hope not so.
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And now if we pivot slightly to AsiaPacific, as you mentioned, important for,
for Italy and the EU, but also not exactlyyour backyard, your work now in the, you
(18:32):
know, private sector focuses on differentparts of the world, not necessarily
Asia, but I'm sure there's Asianinfluence from China all over the world.
Could you just speak?
how you see Chinese influenceglobally and some of the international
security concerns that you face oranticipate with China from a European
(18:54):
perspective or Italian perspective?
The pressure of Chinese intellectualproperty predation is growing
by day by day and we feel it.
One of the outcomes that maybethis current administration is
trying to, to reach is distancingaway a bit Russia from China.
(19:17):
It could be one of the reasonsfor this dramatic changes.
I think China is looking at what, what'shappening in Ukraine with interest,
but it's still not willing to enter.
in a direct confrontation with the West.
There is the question of Taiwanlooming, and at some point
(19:38):
something is going to happen.
I, I wonder if the rare earth deal withUkraine has something to do with this.
How so?
Interesting.
I hadn't put that together.
Yeah, I mean, Taiwan is, is one of thebiggest, uh, sources for rare earth.
So if you can have analternative, it could be helpful.
(20:00):
It's strategic thinking,it's supply chain.
So China has set themselves asa, as a definite world power now.
They don't need to have therecognition that somebody else
is so desperately looking for.
So I think things are evolvingpositively for them without
needing further engagement or ahigher level of confrontation.
(20:26):
And then maybe the last, as we kindof look back to European security,
you mentioned energy with, uh, kindof the Northern and Southern streams,
um, but just energy security ingeneral, how do you see that playing
out, um, with Europe's overallsecurity in general, how inner.
(20:47):
Connected.
Is that you might Youmean the energy supply?
Yeah, energy in general.
Energy supply.
Energy security with, withEurope's thinking energy security.
I think it's one of the, themain, if not the main, along with
immigration, control of immigration.
It's one of the main securityissues that Europe has and all the
(21:09):
drama around the North Stream too.
Yeah, proven this.
I think very clearly to everybody.
We in Italy, we still have a nonew, no nuclear power policy.
I think this needs to be revisedand it's going to be revived.
It's part of this, you know, ofthis, um, dream of a perfect Europe.
(21:31):
So we, we blame the Americansto be arrogant very frequently.
But I think we have ourdose of arrogance as well.
We wanted to be the best andthe cleanest and all of this,
uh, green energy and everything.
So no, we need to, um, diversifyour energy, uh, input influx, and
(21:55):
we did it successfully after the,the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Uh, but we need to develop ourcapability to produce, uh, energy.
And for, for us, uh,to the nuclear option.
I think it's the, theonly real feasible one.
And I think it goes hand in hand with,um, with artificial intelligence and
(22:17):
the way things are going with theenergy requirements needed there.
And for people to want to competeand stay, stay competitive.
Energy is going to be a keypart of that going forward.
So having the nuclearcapability will be yes.
And in general, in terms of, of, um,economic security, there is a much
criticism on the, on the tariffs now.
(22:41):
Yeah, issue of tariffs, but Ithink Europe has a lot to do.
We have to do our own homework.
There were recently studies that the setof regulations and norms for internal
commerce in Europe is equivalent to a41 percent tariff on internal trade.
(23:04):
Wow.
So before, you know, okay, it's not nice.
Tariffs are, to me, a very dangerousinstrument for both who applies
them and who receives them.
But we can also improve oureconomical security by making life
easier for ourselves by ourselves.
(23:24):
Yeah.
Yeah.
Interesting point.
You know, it reminds me tariffs areso front and center now, just with the
way the Trump administration has beenusing them, um, with, with China and
the rest of the world for so long thathas been, you know, sanctions have
been another measure that people use.
(23:45):
to incentivize or, or change course.
What have you seen in terms of sanctionslevied, whether Russia or other entities,
how effective have you seen thosebe over your time in civil service?
I don't think they weredramatically effective.
Yeah.
We started our conversationreferring to books.
(24:05):
One of.
The books I read to you a couple ofyears ago, it's called Disrupting Time.
It's the very interesting story ofan American watchmaker, Walting.
They were the number one, at one point,they introduced new ways of working, a new
organization of work, industrialization.
(24:28):
So, at one point in time, Theybecame the number one worldwide and
then in Switzerland, especially inSwitzerland, they started building
up a very strong competition.
So what was the response?
Tariffs.
Okay.
Okay.
This nurtured the Americanmarket for a couple of decades.
(24:51):
But then at the end.
It brought the, to the collapse ofthe American watchmaker industry.
So it's a very interesting story, I think.
Yeah.
And by the way, within thisstory, there was a very nice
intelligence addendum because the.
The Swiss sent a couple of undercoverexperts to the Centennial exhibition,
(25:17):
and they picked all what they neededto pick up from the Americans, brought
it back to Switzerland, applied thisinto the Swiss framework, and then
managed to revolutionize the market.
It's a very interesting story.
It's its own intellectual property.
insights and intelligence.
(25:39):
Um, Roberto, just on, on moreof a personal note, I'm curious,
you've, you've had a very longcareer in civil service, in the
military, um, in the private sector.
Are there one or two places you'vevisited that you just really
love or think back on fondly?
Yes, but I'm not supposed to mention them.
(26:02):
Well, it doesn't have to bein an operational context.
You could have just visited maybe.
Oh, a visit.
Many place and my postings were,uh, extended over several years.
So it's clear that you develop a bond,you develop an interest to the people,
to the culture, to the nature of places.
(26:22):
Today, maybe just pam pam shooting out.
It's, uh, Serbia, Montenegro.
Yeah, maybe, maybe because my eldestson is coming today with his new
girlfriend and she's from Montenegro.
So
perfect.
Perfect.
Yeah.
Well, Roberta, I'm soappreciative of the time.
(26:45):
Is there anything else you'd wantto leave this American audience
with as, uh, as we wrap up here?
I want appeal to the American folks.
Yes, of course.
That don't consider us random nationsas somebody recently say, remember
that we fought along you, you freedus from the Nazi fascist regimes.
(27:11):
And I think we, we gave backwhat we needed to give back.
I have friends, comrades that werewounded, killed in operations around
the world along your brave soldiers.
So, Europe really loves the Statesand you should be considering a
(27:34):
little bit our emotions as well.
Agreed.
We, uh, just, just for people listening,obviously, who know my background,
um, many European nations supportedus post 9 11, very closely in the
battlefields and in the shadows as well.
Um, it goes.
You know, they may nothave seen all of that.
(27:55):
Of course, they were right there with us.
So, well said Roberto.
Thank you so much for the time.
Enjoy your time with your son.
I really appreciate it.
Thank you for having me.
Maybe we'll do something in the future.
I hope so.
I hope so.
Celebrating a stableand long lasting peace.
(28:17):
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