January 31, 2025 • 27 mins
Today we have a fascinating discussion with two CIA legends from the Directorate of Operations: Glenn Corn and Paul Kepp. Both served for over 30 years in the government, most of that with the CIA and both served as Chiefs of Station at some of the most important posts in the world, leading from the frontlines.
Glenn brought Paul on to discuss what’s going on in Africa in terms of Russian and increasing Chinese influence, regional players like Turkey and UAE, and specifically recent flare ups in the Democratic Republic of Congo or DRC with Tutsi militia group M23 taking over Goma.
We cover what that means for the DRC, Rwanda, the people, regional players, global players, and the United States, particularly with a new administration in place.
Please enjoy this deep dive from two legends discussing a topic that both feel deserves our attention globally.
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🎵 Intro Song: Sport Rock from Audio Jungle
Show Notes:
00:00 Introduction
00:48 Geopolitical Importance of Africa
02:58 Russia and China's Influence in Africa
06:17 Current Crisis in the DRC
07:11 Historical Context of the Conflict
09:02 Rwanda's Role and International Interests
16:22 US Administration's Response
24:18 Humanitarian Impact and Future Prospects
27:10 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:01):
Glenn and Paul.
Thank you for taking time to talkthrough, uh, another hotspot in the world.
This time, Africa, first timefor us, Glenn, of course.
And for those who are listening,um, obviously, uh, you know, me,
Ryan, uh, spent time in the armyand the CIA, but I have to say
we've got two folks on the call.
I wouldn't even say that Iwas in the same agency as them
(00:22):
given their backgrounds, but.
You're, uh, well acquainted with Glenn.
We've talked Middle East, we've talked,uh, Syria expert on Russia has been a
multi time, uh, COS over three decadesin the agency, state department, and
of course the military storied career.
And Glenn would love to justpass it over to you as we tee up.
(00:44):
Who our new guest is.
Hey, Ryan, it's great to see you.
And thanks for having us on.
As you mentioned, this is anotherhotspot, which has emerged.
Not surprising.
Uh, I think when we, we kind of talkedabout the plan for some of these podcasts,
it was to make sure that we paid attentionto areas of the world that were important
geopolitically for the U S but maybe don'talways get the attention they should.
(01:04):
And this is definitely an example ofwhat's happening in the DRC right now.
Uh, so I'm glad that you came to me to askme about this because geopolitically, uh,
with what's going on with Russia and Chinaand the competition for minerals, uh,
supply chain issues for the United States,uh, I can't stress how important this is.
And when you asked me to.
do the podcast.
(01:24):
I said I'd love to, but I don'treally know that much about Africa,
but I know someone that does.
I know someone that knows Africa insideand out, a true expert, and that is Mr.
Paul Koepp, Professor Paul Koepp, who bythe way, just started teaching here at
the Institute of World Politics with us.
So we're, we'd love to have him here.
We're very happy about that.
Uh, and before we go any further,I do want to thank the team here
(01:45):
at IWP for allowing us to use thecampus for this great podcast.
So Paul, I'll let Paul talk a littlebit about his background and delve
into the issue, but we couldn't haveanybody better to talk about the
issue, uh, right now in, uh, in Africa.
Thanks.
Thanks, Glenn.
Thanks, Ryan.
Um, yes, my name's Paul Koepp and,um, uh, like Glenn, uh, I served
(02:07):
about three decades, uh, in the CIA onthe, uh, director of operations side.
Most of that was spent, uh, in Africa.
Um, I did tours.
All over the world in South Asiaand Europe, other places, but
most of the time was in Africa.
And I still consider it my hometown.
Fantastic.
(02:28):
And then just as we tee this up, I mean,we're going to get into what's going
on now in the DRC, of course, but justcontextually, if we can frame this from a
Russia and Africa expert here, what, whatis the influence and aspects of of Africa
today that we see with Russia and China.
You mentioned the resource topic,Glenn, but what should other people
(02:53):
be thinking as they think aboutAfrica when it comes to Russia,
China, and some of the global powers?
Well, in terms of the Russians,we've seen them moving with their
private military companies, trying toinfluence both Political, uh, creating
in political instability in differentcountries, looking to exploit that
instability to advance their economicinterests, maybe when mining, you know,
(03:15):
trading security for access to mineralresources, uh, providing some weapons.
Uh, and when it comes to China, weknow that China is probably a much
bigger competitor for the U. S. and ourEuropean partners in Africa right now.
The Chinese have invested heavilyin infrastructure projects,
mining, uh, ports, uh, agriculture.
(03:37):
And, um, I would suggest thatChina, you know, the PRC is a
bigger competitor and much more.
important competitor for the UnitedStates to compete with today, and with the
new administration in office, hopefullythey will put, uh, put the level of
attention back on Africa that we maybehad during the Cold War when we were
competing with the Soviet Union, andto a lesser degree, China at that time.
(03:58):
Yeah, I would, uh, I would justadd to that, um, uh, both Russia
and China are players in Africa.
Uh, Russia It's involvementin Africa in every sense of
the word really is mercenary.
Uh, it's rather limited right now toa handful of countries in the Sahel,
uh, in the central African Republic.
It's very focused on providing securityto, uh, these autocratic regimes there.
(04:23):
And I would say, uh, Russia'spolitical influence in Africa is,
is actually limited and certainlylimited compared to China.
China is a completely different story.
Uh, their focus on the Africancontinent, uh, has been going
on since, uh, about 2000.
Uh, and they have significantpolitical, uh, and economic influence
(04:43):
and interests throughout, uh, Africa.
In the context of the crisis we'retalking about here in the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Rwanda, uh,it was Mao Tse Tung himself who said
once, uh, during the Cold War, He whocontrols the Congo controls Africa.
Uh, and there's sometruth to that statement.
It's an enormous country.
(05:04):
Uh, it's the size of the UnitedStates, east of the Mississippi.
Uh, it's got a large populationand very relevant to today's world.
It has tremendous natural resources, uh,that essentially, uh, Is at the core of
the current conflict and China certainlywill have an interest as the United States
and other countries will, uh, in, inwhat happens, uh, in the current crisis.
(05:28):
You know, Ryan, if I could justadd very quickly beyond Russia and
China, there are other players nowin, in Africa that are very active.
The Turks, for example, have openedup numerous embassies, a lot of
investment, a lot of projects.
I think the Emiratis, uh, some othercountries who are investing a lot.
So the continent is very active.
(05:48):
Uh, and I would say in my ownassessment, we've probably ignored
Africa or not put enough attentionto Africa, uh, in recent years.
And we need to do a lot more,um, to protect our interests.
Paul, can, can we kick it to you to giveus an idea of what's going on right now?
Why is this?
Why is this the topic for Africa today?
And then also just some historicalcontext as you describe the size of
(06:12):
this country and where it sits just tohelp frame what we're about to dig into.
Sure.
Um, just, uh, for your listeners to,to summarize where we are right now.
A rebel group called M23, uh,has taken over a major city, uh,
in Eastern Congo called Goma.
M23 is widely believed, and I thinkcorrectly so, to be a proxy of,
(06:35):
um, the Congo's neighbor, Rwanda.
Uh, and, uh, They're taking overthis, uh, important city in Eastern
Congo is, is an important event.
Goma is the gateway to EasternCongo, uh, where so many of these
mineral resources are located.
It's been the location orthe site of a pretty much
continuous humanitarian crisis.
(06:57):
But it's important to understand,um, that What's happened in the past
couple of weeks in the Eastern Congois a continuation of a conflict that
has gone on basically since 1994.
It really began with thegenocide in Rwanda, uh, in
the spring and summer of 1994.
(07:18):
I don't think it's any exaggerationto say that in the African context,
that genocide, uh, had the impactof like the creation of the state
of Israel in 1947 did in the MiddleEast or partition in South Asia did,
uh, um, right after World War II.
Uh, it was a major shockwave, uh,not just in the humanitarian sense,
(07:41):
but in the political sense as well.
It led to the downfall of, uh, what was.
than Zaire's dictator Mobutu Sese Seko.
It cemented Rwanda's placeas a major influence in the
entire Great Lakes region.
And the war at various times ineastern Congo drew in no less than 15
(08:04):
African countries who were pursuingtheir individual interests politically
and economically in the Congo.
That war, that conflict is Continuedto this day, uh, that started in 1994.
Ceasefires have come and gone, peaceagreements have come and gone, but the
(08:27):
conflict and the humanitarian crisisit's engendered has never really ended.
So I think that's a little bit ofhistorical background for your listeners.
The array of rebel groups, proxyforces, and so forth that have
paraded through the Congo, uh, wecould spend all day listing those.
(08:51):
But I think I can, we cansum it up in one key phrase.
All of it is tied.
To Rwanda's drive for dominanceand hegemony in eastern Congo.
Uh, and what we've seen in the last fewdays with this rebel group M23 taking
over Goma is a continuation of that event.
(09:13):
Uh, M23 took the city once before.
In 2012, uh, they gave it up underintense international pressure, um,
and, um, moved back into the bush.
Uh, but I think one questionthat's worth thinking about today
is, um, now they've got the cityagain or on the cusp of taking it.
(09:34):
Uh, what's changed between 2012 and today?
Why now of all the times to move in?
Was there something that That led to thisdecision at this point in time that we
can point to that's a great question.
It's still shaking out, but Ithink we can put some ideas on
the table to answer that question.
That would make a lot of sense.
(09:56):
One of them gets exactlyto what Glenn said here.
And that is over the pastfive or 10 years, we've seen a
range of new players in Africa.
Uh, Rwanda, which has a very wellorganized, a disciplined and well
led military, is absolutely notblind to these new opportunities.
(10:16):
Uh, Glenn mentioned correctly,so I think two countries, Turkey
and the United Arab Emirates.
Uh, Rwanda has carefully cultivated, uh,relationships with these two nations.
In fact, uh, just a few days ago, uh,Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda, uh,
made a high profile state visit to Turkey.
(10:37):
It may be no accident that, um, hisdecision through his proxy force,
M23, to take over this importantcity was linked to this visit.
In fact, Erdogan and Kagame, I think,share some distinct traits as leaders.
Uh, you could almost really call it aRwanda first policy, uh, to use lingo
(11:00):
that's popular, you know, uh, today.
Uh, and I think he sees that,um, This, um, diversification
of his key relationships.
are very important.
Something else that's changed since 2012is, uh, Rwanda's relationship with Europe.
(11:20):
Uh, two of Paul Kagame's fiercestcritics in Europe, uh, have been
the United Kingdom and France.
Uh, Rwanda has handled its relationshipwith Europe and particularly with these
two countries in a very interesting way,in a very careful and strategic way.
We're all aware of, uh, the UKgovernment's plan to deport, uh, illegal
(11:42):
immigrants from the UK to Rwanda.
That, uh, policy collapsed, uh, underpolitical pressure in the UK, uh, but that
Rwanda was willing to do this and engagein this kind of sensitive geopolitical
negotiation with London is a suggestionthat they're taking the long game.
(12:03):
Similarly, Um, let's look at NorthernMozambique, a country that seemingly
has no connection to Rwanda.
Uh, but there is an Islamic stateinspired insurgency, which erupted
in Northern Mozambique in 2017.
This coincided with the discoveryof major natural gas reserves
(12:25):
just off the coast of Mozambique.
One of the key investors.
in those gas fields isthe French company Total.
So in 2021, Paul Kagame took his army,the Rwanda Patriotic Force, the RPF, and
deployed units of of the RPF to northernMozambique to help improve security there.
(12:48):
And indeed that deploymenthas been largely successful.
Uh, this disciplined effectiveorganization has had an
impact in Northern Mozambique.
France has been one ofthe beneficiaries of that.
I'm not suggesting for a minute thatcountries are going to necessarily
moderate their criticism of what Rwandais doing in the Eastern Congo, but I
(13:09):
think Paul Kagame and his government'spositioning of itself with regard
to its traditional partners and somenew partners is something that can't
be ignored in this current crisis.
I think one thing people will findsurprising is the, the interest of
other countries in Europe and aroundthe world in this part of Africa.
And we've mentioned minerals.
(13:30):
Can you expand on that just a little bit?
Like what is it that, that is residentwithin the DRC that is so attractive that
would pull this type of, um, grouping in?
Well, it's um, uh, there, there,there are some actually relatively
rare minerals that are, uh,can be found in Eastern Congo.
One, it's called coltan.
(13:51):
Uh, it's, uh, the engineering of it isa little bit beyond me, but apparently
this is a key mineral, uh, for mobiletelephones and other electronic equipment.
And Rwanda, or sorry, Eastern Congois one of the major sources of that.
There are also huge gold reserves.
Uh, in eastern Congo, I'll give you anexample, uh, another country neighboring
(14:14):
Congo, Uganda, which has been involvedon and off in the conflict there.
20 years ago, Ugandaexported almost no gold.
In the past 20 years, Uganda hasemerged as a major gold exporter.
None of that gold comes from Uganda.
It all comes from the Eastern Congo.
(14:35):
So, uh, those mineral resources andriches are real, and they're there.
There's been recent discovery ofoil deposits too in that area.
Congo has been blessed or curseddepending on how you want to look at it.
With, uh, just amazing,amazing geological riches.
Uh, and, uh, this is a big part of thereason that you see Rwanda involved there.
(14:59):
It's the big part of the reason yousaw these 15 other African countries
at various times over the past 20,25 years, uh, get involved there.
So, um, It's there.
The other factor too that has allowedthese countries to to have such influence.
(15:20):
There is the Congolese stateitself and its capital Kinshasa
is is is incredibly weak.
Its ability to project power fromthe capital Kinshasa to Goma and the
environs, which is the area we'retalking about now, it's very limited.
I mean, it's, it's, it's a thousandmiles of jungle, uh, roadless,
(15:42):
trackless wilderness between Kinshasaand this part, uh, of Eastern
Congo that we're talking about.
Rwanda, by contrast, The city of Goma,uh, sits right on the Rwandan border.
Uh, so that geographic reality coupledwith, uh, uh, disciplined and effective,
(16:02):
uh, military and security force inKigali has allowed Rwanda to act.
sometimes overtly, sometimesclandestinely, but always efficiently
and effectively in the Eastern Congo.
Maybe a question for either of you,but just with the new administration
in the US, I think we often say that wedon't pay enough attention to Africa.
And I was actually quite surprisedjust before we hit record that you
(16:25):
had mentioned, Paul, that there,there was already some work going
on within the administration on thisissue in particular, how should we
be thinking about or expecting to seethis new administration moving on DRC?
You know, Ryan, when you say like,why now, one of the things I'm a
conspiratorial kind of minded guy, maybeit's because where I spent a lot of
my time, my career, but, you know, youjust have a change of administration.
(16:47):
And someone might say, did theydecide to make this move now?
Because there may be some transitionin Washington, some confusion.
And I'll let Paul answer the questionbecause he had that great news,
which I thought was a very good sign.
about how this new administrationis responding already?
Well, um, I think it's a questionwe should absolutely ask ourselves.
(17:09):
Uh, and it goes back to a realitythat's very important to remember.
African leaders are acutelysensitive to global developments.
They're sensitive to the opportunitiesand the risks that happen with
changes in administration inWashington, in Europe, wherever.
Geopolitical evolution.
(17:30):
I'll give you one quick example fromhistory on this that I think is very,
um, uh, illustrates this very well.
Um, Eritrea, um, now, uh, a policestate, small police state in the horn
of Africa, uh, whose leader IsaiahSafavuorki has often been compared in
some ways to Kagame as this so callednew generation of African leaders.
(17:52):
Um, uh, In September of 2001,Isaiah took action against all
of his political opponents.
He arrested dozens of his keyministers and leaders, people who
had served with him for decades,people who were instrumental in
the revolution and the insurgencywhich led to Eritrea's independence.
(18:18):
That all took place on oneday, September 18th, 2001.
I'm sure there are manyreasons Isaiah chose that date.
But I don't think I need to remind yourlisteners that the world's attention
was elsewhere on September 18th, 2001.
So let's bring it up to the present day.
We have a new administrationin Washington.
(18:38):
We have this new activity by M23,uh, Rwanda's proxy force in Eastern
Congo, are the two events connected?
Uh, I think they very well could be.
Uh, and I think that, um, when yousee some of the, uh, the, the policies
and the statements coming out of theTrump administration in Washington,
(19:01):
perhaps a more muscular foreign policyin some ways, an America first policy,
could we be seeing Rwanda, whichhas long had political and economic
interests in Eastern Congo, in fact,has long sought, as I said, hegemony
in this region, could they have seenthis as an opportunity for themselves
(19:23):
to take on a Rwanda first policy?
Uh, I don't have any hard evidenceof that fact, but I think taken into
the context of history, And what, uh,Paul Kagame and his government have
done in other times and other places,the possibility can't be discounted.
Um, I do think it's very interesting andvery encouraging, quite frankly, that
(19:47):
the new secretary of state, Marco Rubiohas taken time out of his schedule.
He's a busy man.
I'm sure right now to talk to bothleaders, what will come of that?
Uh, it's impossible to say at this.
point.
The situation is fluid and it's unfolding.
But I think African leaders, bothin Central Africa and throughout
(20:09):
the continent, are going to bewatching very closely how Washington
responds as a signal for whatkind of interest Washington is
going to take in the continent.
And I think the early signs are positive.
What is the potential for escalation here?
What do you see playing out over the nextfew weeks with m23 and where they are?
Do they advance further?
Does this escalate into more conflict?
(20:31):
What what's your best guess there?
One likely scenario is that m23will consolidate its position
Goma the city that they justtook over really is the key.
It's the gateway It hasa major airport there.
It's a major humanitarian hubIt's the gateway to these, uh,
resources that we talked about.
And I should mention just in passingtoo, it's not just economics for Rwanda.
(20:55):
There is a large, uh, Tutsiminority, uh, living in Eastern
Congo known as the Banimalenge.
They've been there for decades.
So, uh, the protection andsupport of this mino minority is
also a political goal of Kigali.
Um, I think the key question now willbe, uh, what kind of tolerance the
(21:17):
international community, includingthe United States has for allowing
M23 to continue to hold this key city.
As I mentioned, they didit once before in 2012.
There was a huge criticism, uh,of that rebel group and of Rwanda
for allowing that to happen.
And they eventually left, um, hasenough changed as we discussed
(21:39):
between 2012 and now to allowa more permanent, uh, presence.
Uh, in that important city for M23and for Rwanda, it remains to be seen,
but, uh, it wouldn't entirely surpriseme if we have a different outcome
this time than we did 12 years ago.
Tough question here, but if, if youwere in the, this administration or, or
(22:01):
helping shape policy on Africa today,what do you think is happening in those
discussions and what would you recommend?
That really is a tough question.
Um, The international communityhas never been entirely able to
satisfactorily answer Rwanda's demands.
(22:23):
Some people say they're reasonable.
Some people say they're unreasonable,but let's not forget this all ties
back to what happened in 1994.
And if you lump that, at least inthe regional context, context as
something, you know, as importantas say partition in South Asia, the
creation of the state of Israel.
We see how those decisions resonateand have presented almost insoluble
(22:48):
problems even to this day.
Um, so, uh, I think the newadministration and its Africa
team Uh, has a real challenge onits hands in its early days here.
Uh, so, so we'll see what happens.
The, the school solution, if you will,would be to, as we did in 2012, uh,
(23:11):
put pressure on Rwanda to pull out itsforces, to, uh, abide by the Rwanda
Accords, which was a peace accordthat, um, was in a process designed
to address this instability there.
Um, but we'll see what happens.
You know, Ryan, like, we talk aboutChina and Russia, but you, you, you
probably know, like, Biden went toAngola just before he left office.
(23:33):
And the, and the White House put a bigemphasis on China, you know, Russia
competition, and the Angolans didn'tlike it at all because there was a lot
of feedback that like, what about us?
Like, and you just look atsome of the statistics, 7.
2 million internally displacedpersons in the DRC right now.
I think 6 million people killed in 96during the first Congolese war, Congo war.
(23:57):
So there's a, I mean, the,the, the misery is incredible.
And we talk, I was talking to Paul,you know, we talk, I obviously do
a lot of talks about Ukraine andthe misery they're caused by the
Russians, but this, this crisis.
This situation, it's been anongoing crisis for years, is really
something that Americans shouldbe aware of and pay attention to.
(24:18):
And of course, at the end of theday, yeah, we have our strategic
interests, but, you know, as a humanbeing, it's just terrible to see,
kind of, some of the suffering.
And it's not just You know, Rwanda and,um, you know, the DRC, there are hundreds
of groups fighting, there are all kinds ofarmed groups, atrocities being committed.
So I don't want to go down thatrabbit hole too much on the podcast,
(24:40):
but we should probably say somethingabout the people of the DRC and
all the people that are suffering.
And Ryan, to be honest, I, I,I agree completely with Glenn
and I'm glad he brought it up.
Yeah.
Uh, you know, as we parse out thegeopolitics and the history of
it, uh, there is a humanitariancost to all this and it has been
ongoing for, for 30 years now.
(25:02):
Um, and you know, uh, for all thedifficulty of resolving the conflict
once and for all, the internationalcommunity, including the United States,
deserves a lot of credit for, uh,Actually making it a little bit better.
There aren't 15 countriesinvolved in the conflict anymore.
Uh, there's just really two or three.
(25:24):
Now that's still important,but you know, it's progress.
So, um, I think absolutely thehumanitarian dimension of this, uh,
needs to be, um, Uh, at the forefrontof whatever decisions are made.
And I guess you have this crisis now,you know, exploder expanding again,
at the same time that you have,you know, Syria, we've talked about
(25:48):
Lebanon, uh, Gaza, you know, Russia,Ukraine, I mean, we go this long list.
And one thing I would say is, you know,we mentioned other countries now that
are involved, the Turks, you know, UAE.
The good news may be is that some ofthose countries are our NATO allies.
Some of those countries wehave some common interest with.
And my own recommendation would bethat the Washington look to partner
(26:11):
with those countries to find the bestsolution We don't have to bear the burden
all by ourselves, you know, we do haveeuropean partners But I think the new
player here really in my mind is turkeybecause they do have some economic throw
weight They have invested a lot in inafrica, uh in building relationships
And where we have common interests,I think we should work with them.
Where we don't, then we shouldmake it clear to them that
(26:32):
we don't agree with them.
And, uh, if we have to push back onsome of the things they want to do,
uh, and then to a lesser extent, theUAE, the UAE, my understanding is the
UAE is just investing a lot, right?
But the Turks are there on theground and there are a lot of
business activities going on,which are not always a bad thing.
Yeah, I would, uh, I, again, Iwould agree with Glenn and I'd
say it's far from a bad thing.
(26:53):
I think some of these new players inAfrica, uh, the Gulf States, Turkey,
uh, will actually be much easier to workwith, uh, than China and certainly Russia.
Uh, and I think, uh, that presents newopportunities, uh, including in this long
running conflict in the Eastern Congo.
Thanks so much for the time.
This was great.
I don't know what we're doing next,Glenn, but, uh, looking forward to it.
(27:16):
And Paul, I hope we can, wecan have you back on as well.
Um, as you, as you embark on,on this, uh, teaching journey.
And I'm very jealous for the studentsin both of your classes there at IWP.
Thanks.
It was a real pleasure to be on with you.
Thanks.
Yeah, it's great seeing you, Ryan.
And, uh, we'll, I'm sure we'll havesomething to talk about very soon.
Yeah.
Unfortunately, but fortunately.
(27:37):
Yeah.
Glenn and Paul.
Thank you for taking time to talkthrough, uh, another hotspot in the world.
This time, Africa, first timefor us, Glenn, of course.
And for those who are listening,um, obviously, uh, you know, me,
Ryan, uh, spent time in the armyand the CIA, but I have to say
we've got two folks on the call.
I wouldn't even say that Iwas in the same agency as them
(00:22):
given their backgrounds, but.
You're, uh, well acquainted with Glenn.
We've talked Middle East, we've talked,uh, Syria expert on Russia has been a
multi time, uh, COS over three decadesin the agency, state department, and
of course the military storied career.
And Glenn would love to justpass it over to you as we tee up.
(00:44):
Who our new guest is.
Hey, Ryan, it's great to see you.
And thanks for having us on.
As you mentioned, this is anotherhotspot, which has emerged.
Not surprising.
Uh, I think when we, we kind of talkedabout the plan for some of these podcasts,
it was to make sure that we paid attentionto areas of the world that were important
geopolitically for the U S but maybe don'talways get the attention they should.
(01:04):
And this is definitely an example ofwhat's happening in the DRC right now.
Uh, so I'm glad that you came to me to askme about this because geopolitically, uh,
with what's going on with Russia and Chinaand the competition for minerals, uh,
supply chain issues for the United States,uh, I can't stress how important this is.
And when you asked me to.
do the podcast.
(01:24):
I said I'd love to, but I don'treally know that much about Africa,
but I know someone that does.
I know someone that knows Africa insideand out, a true expert, and that is Mr.
Paul Koepp, Professor Paul Koepp, who bythe way, just started teaching here at
the Institute of World Politics with us.
So we're, we'd love to have him here.
We're very happy about that.
Uh, and before we go any further,I do want to thank the team here
(01:45):
at IWP for allowing us to use thecampus for this great podcast.
So Paul, I'll let Paul talk a littlebit about his background and delve
into the issue, but we couldn't haveanybody better to talk about the
issue, uh, right now in, uh, in Africa.
Thanks.
Thanks, Glenn.
Thanks, Ryan.
Um, yes, my name's Paul Koepp and,um, uh, like Glenn, uh, I served
(02:07):
about three decades, uh, in the CIA onthe, uh, director of operations side.
Most of that was spent, uh, in Africa.
Um, I did tours.
All over the world in South Asiaand Europe, other places, but
most of the time was in Africa.
And I still consider it my hometown.
Fantastic.
(02:28):
And then just as we tee this up, I mean,we're going to get into what's going
on now in the DRC, of course, but justcontextually, if we can frame this from a
Russia and Africa expert here, what, whatis the influence and aspects of of Africa
today that we see with Russia and China.
You mentioned the resource topic,Glenn, but what should other people
(02:53):
be thinking as they think aboutAfrica when it comes to Russia,
China, and some of the global powers?
Well, in terms of the Russians,we've seen them moving with their
private military companies, trying toinfluence both Political, uh, creating
in political instability in differentcountries, looking to exploit that
instability to advance their economicinterests, maybe when mining, you know,
(03:15):
trading security for access to mineralresources, uh, providing some weapons.
Uh, and when it comes to China, weknow that China is probably a much
bigger competitor for the U. S. and ourEuropean partners in Africa right now.
The Chinese have invested heavilyin infrastructure projects,
mining, uh, ports, uh, agriculture.
(03:37):
And, um, I would suggest thatChina, you know, the PRC is a
bigger competitor and much more.
important competitor for the UnitedStates to compete with today, and with the
new administration in office, hopefullythey will put, uh, put the level of
attention back on Africa that we maybehad during the Cold War when we were
competing with the Soviet Union, andto a lesser degree, China at that time.
(03:58):
Yeah, I would, uh, I would justadd to that, um, uh, both Russia
and China are players in Africa.
Uh, Russia It's involvementin Africa in every sense of
the word really is mercenary.
Uh, it's rather limited right now toa handful of countries in the Sahel,
uh, in the central African Republic.
It's very focused on providing securityto, uh, these autocratic regimes there.
(04:23):
And I would say, uh, Russia'spolitical influence in Africa is,
is actually limited and certainlylimited compared to China.
China is a completely different story.
Uh, their focus on the Africancontinent, uh, has been going
on since, uh, about 2000.
Uh, and they have significantpolitical, uh, and economic influence
(04:43):
and interests throughout, uh, Africa.
In the context of the crisis we'retalking about here in the Democratic
Republic of Congo and Rwanda, uh,it was Mao Tse Tung himself who said
once, uh, during the Cold War, He whocontrols the Congo controls Africa.
Uh, and there's sometruth to that statement.
It's an enormous country.
(05:04):
Uh, it's the size of the UnitedStates, east of the Mississippi.
Uh, it's got a large populationand very relevant to today's world.
It has tremendous natural resources, uh,that essentially, uh, Is at the core of
the current conflict and China certainlywill have an interest as the United States
and other countries will, uh, in, inwhat happens, uh, in the current crisis.
(05:28):
You know, Ryan, if I could justadd very quickly beyond Russia and
China, there are other players nowin, in Africa that are very active.
The Turks, for example, have openedup numerous embassies, a lot of
investment, a lot of projects.
I think the Emiratis, uh, some othercountries who are investing a lot.
So the continent is very active.
(05:48):
Uh, and I would say in my ownassessment, we've probably ignored
Africa or not put enough attentionto Africa, uh, in recent years.
And we need to do a lot more,um, to protect our interests.
Paul, can, can we kick it to you to giveus an idea of what's going on right now?
Why is this?
Why is this the topic for Africa today?
And then also just some historicalcontext as you describe the size of
(06:12):
this country and where it sits just tohelp frame what we're about to dig into.
Sure.
Um, just, uh, for your listeners to,to summarize where we are right now.
A rebel group called M23, uh,has taken over a major city, uh,
in Eastern Congo called Goma.
M23 is widely believed, and I thinkcorrectly so, to be a proxy of,
(06:35):
um, the Congo's neighbor, Rwanda.
Uh, and, uh, They're taking overthis, uh, important city in Eastern
Congo is, is an important event.
Goma is the gateway to EasternCongo, uh, where so many of these
mineral resources are located.
It's been the location orthe site of a pretty much
continuous humanitarian crisis.
(06:57):
But it's important to understand,um, that What's happened in the past
couple of weeks in the Eastern Congois a continuation of a conflict that
has gone on basically since 1994.
It really began with thegenocide in Rwanda, uh, in
the spring and summer of 1994.
(07:18):
I don't think it's any exaggerationto say that in the African context,
that genocide, uh, had the impactof like the creation of the state
of Israel in 1947 did in the MiddleEast or partition in South Asia did,
uh, um, right after World War II.
Uh, it was a major shockwave, uh,not just in the humanitarian sense,
(07:41):
but in the political sense as well.
It led to the downfall of, uh, what was.
than Zaire's dictator Mobutu Sese Seko.
It cemented Rwanda's placeas a major influence in the
entire Great Lakes region.
And the war at various times ineastern Congo drew in no less than 15
(08:04):
African countries who were pursuingtheir individual interests politically
and economically in the Congo.
That war, that conflict is Continuedto this day, uh, that started in 1994.
Ceasefires have come and gone, peaceagreements have come and gone, but the
(08:27):
conflict and the humanitarian crisisit's engendered has never really ended.
So I think that's a little bit ofhistorical background for your listeners.
The array of rebel groups, proxyforces, and so forth that have
paraded through the Congo, uh, wecould spend all day listing those.
(08:51):
But I think I can, we cansum it up in one key phrase.
All of it is tied.
To Rwanda's drive for dominanceand hegemony in eastern Congo.
Uh, and what we've seen in the last fewdays with this rebel group M23 taking
over Goma is a continuation of that event.
(09:13):
Uh, M23 took the city once before.
In 2012, uh, they gave it up underintense international pressure, um,
and, um, moved back into the bush.
Uh, but I think one questionthat's worth thinking about today
is, um, now they've got the cityagain or on the cusp of taking it.
(09:34):
Uh, what's changed between 2012 and today?
Why now of all the times to move in?
Was there something that That led to thisdecision at this point in time that we
can point to that's a great question.
It's still shaking out, but Ithink we can put some ideas on
the table to answer that question.
That would make a lot of sense.
(09:56):
One of them gets exactlyto what Glenn said here.
And that is over the pastfive or 10 years, we've seen a
range of new players in Africa.
Uh, Rwanda, which has a very wellorganized, a disciplined and well
led military, is absolutely notblind to these new opportunities.
(10:16):
Uh, Glenn mentioned correctly,so I think two countries, Turkey
and the United Arab Emirates.
Uh, Rwanda has carefully cultivated, uh,relationships with these two nations.
In fact, uh, just a few days ago, uh,Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda, uh,
made a high profile state visit to Turkey.
(10:37):
It may be no accident that, um, hisdecision through his proxy force,
M23, to take over this importantcity was linked to this visit.
In fact, Erdogan and Kagame, I think,share some distinct traits as leaders.
Uh, you could almost really call it aRwanda first policy, uh, to use lingo
(11:00):
that's popular, you know, uh, today.
Uh, and I think he sees that,um, This, um, diversification
of his key relationships.
are very important.
Something else that's changed since 2012is, uh, Rwanda's relationship with Europe.
(11:20):
Uh, two of Paul Kagame's fiercestcritics in Europe, uh, have been
the United Kingdom and France.
Uh, Rwanda has handled its relationshipwith Europe and particularly with these
two countries in a very interesting way,in a very careful and strategic way.
We're all aware of, uh, the UKgovernment's plan to deport, uh, illegal
(11:42):
immigrants from the UK to Rwanda.
That, uh, policy collapsed, uh, underpolitical pressure in the UK, uh, but that
Rwanda was willing to do this and engagein this kind of sensitive geopolitical
negotiation with London is a suggestionthat they're taking the long game.
(12:03):
Similarly, Um, let's look at NorthernMozambique, a country that seemingly
has no connection to Rwanda.
Uh, but there is an Islamic stateinspired insurgency, which erupted
in Northern Mozambique in 2017.
This coincided with the discoveryof major natural gas reserves
(12:25):
just off the coast of Mozambique.
One of the key investors.
in those gas fields isthe French company Total.
So in 2021, Paul Kagame took his army,the Rwanda Patriotic Force, the RPF, and
deployed units of of the RPF to northernMozambique to help improve security there.
(12:48):
And indeed that deploymenthas been largely successful.
Uh, this disciplined effectiveorganization has had an
impact in Northern Mozambique.
France has been one ofthe beneficiaries of that.
I'm not suggesting for a minute thatcountries are going to necessarily
moderate their criticism of what Rwandais doing in the Eastern Congo, but I
(13:09):
think Paul Kagame and his government'spositioning of itself with regard
to its traditional partners and somenew partners is something that can't
be ignored in this current crisis.
I think one thing people will findsurprising is the, the interest of
other countries in Europe and aroundthe world in this part of Africa.
And we've mentioned minerals.
(13:30):
Can you expand on that just a little bit?
Like what is it that, that is residentwithin the DRC that is so attractive that
would pull this type of, um, grouping in?
Well, it's um, uh, there, there,there are some actually relatively
rare minerals that are, uh,can be found in Eastern Congo.
One, it's called coltan.
(13:51):
Uh, it's, uh, the engineering of it isa little bit beyond me, but apparently
this is a key mineral, uh, for mobiletelephones and other electronic equipment.
And Rwanda, or sorry, Eastern Congois one of the major sources of that.
There are also huge gold reserves.
Uh, in eastern Congo, I'll give you anexample, uh, another country neighboring
(14:14):
Congo, Uganda, which has been involvedon and off in the conflict there.
20 years ago, Ugandaexported almost no gold.
In the past 20 years, Uganda hasemerged as a major gold exporter.
None of that gold comes from Uganda.
It all comes from the Eastern Congo.
(14:35):
So, uh, those mineral resources andriches are real, and they're there.
There's been recent discovery ofoil deposits too in that area.
Congo has been blessed or curseddepending on how you want to look at it.
With, uh, just amazing,amazing geological riches.
Uh, and, uh, this is a big part of thereason that you see Rwanda involved there.
(14:59):
It's the big part of the reason yousaw these 15 other African countries
at various times over the past 20,25 years, uh, get involved there.
So, um, It's there.
The other factor too that has allowedthese countries to to have such influence.
(15:20):
There is the Congolese stateitself and its capital Kinshasa
is is is incredibly weak.
Its ability to project power fromthe capital Kinshasa to Goma and the
environs, which is the area we'retalking about now, it's very limited.
I mean, it's, it's, it's a thousandmiles of jungle, uh, roadless,
(15:42):
trackless wilderness between Kinshasaand this part, uh, of Eastern
Congo that we're talking about.
Rwanda, by contrast, The city of Goma,uh, sits right on the Rwandan border.
Uh, so that geographic reality coupledwith, uh, uh, disciplined and effective,
(16:02):
uh, military and security force inKigali has allowed Rwanda to act.
sometimes overtly, sometimesclandestinely, but always efficiently
and effectively in the Eastern Congo.
Maybe a question for either of you,but just with the new administration
in the US, I think we often say that wedon't pay enough attention to Africa.
And I was actually quite surprisedjust before we hit record that you
(16:25):
had mentioned, Paul, that there,there was already some work going
on within the administration on thisissue in particular, how should we
be thinking about or expecting to seethis new administration moving on DRC?
You know, Ryan, when you say like,why now, one of the things I'm a
conspiratorial kind of minded guy, maybeit's because where I spent a lot of
my time, my career, but, you know, youjust have a change of administration.
(16:47):
And someone might say, did theydecide to make this move now?
Because there may be some transitionin Washington, some confusion.
And I'll let Paul answer the questionbecause he had that great news,
which I thought was a very good sign.
about how this new administrationis responding already?
Well, um, I think it's a questionwe should absolutely ask ourselves.
(17:09):
Uh, and it goes back to a realitythat's very important to remember.
African leaders are acutelysensitive to global developments.
They're sensitive to the opportunitiesand the risks that happen with
changes in administration inWashington, in Europe, wherever.
Geopolitical evolution.
(17:30):
I'll give you one quick example fromhistory on this that I think is very,
um, uh, illustrates this very well.
Um, Eritrea, um, now, uh, a policestate, small police state in the horn
of Africa, uh, whose leader IsaiahSafavuorki has often been compared in
some ways to Kagame as this so callednew generation of African leaders.
(17:52):
Um, uh, In September of 2001,Isaiah took action against all
of his political opponents.
He arrested dozens of his keyministers and leaders, people who
had served with him for decades,people who were instrumental in
the revolution and the insurgencywhich led to Eritrea's independence.
(18:18):
That all took place on oneday, September 18th, 2001.
I'm sure there are manyreasons Isaiah chose that date.
But I don't think I need to remind yourlisteners that the world's attention
was elsewhere on September 18th, 2001.
So let's bring it up to the present day.
We have a new administrationin Washington.
(18:38):
We have this new activity by M23,uh, Rwanda's proxy force in Eastern
Congo, are the two events connected?
Uh, I think they very well could be.
Uh, and I think that, um, when yousee some of the, uh, the, the policies
and the statements coming out of theTrump administration in Washington,
(19:01):
perhaps a more muscular foreign policyin some ways, an America first policy,
could we be seeing Rwanda, whichhas long had political and economic
interests in Eastern Congo, in fact,has long sought, as I said, hegemony
in this region, could they have seenthis as an opportunity for themselves
(19:23):
to take on a Rwanda first policy?
Uh, I don't have any hard evidenceof that fact, but I think taken into
the context of history, And what, uh,Paul Kagame and his government have
done in other times and other places,the possibility can't be discounted.
Um, I do think it's very interesting andvery encouraging, quite frankly, that
(19:47):
the new secretary of state, Marco Rubiohas taken time out of his schedule.
He's a busy man.
I'm sure right now to talk to bothleaders, what will come of that?
Uh, it's impossible to say at this.
point.
The situation is fluid and it's unfolding.
But I think African leaders, bothin Central Africa and throughout
(20:09):
the continent, are going to bewatching very closely how Washington
responds as a signal for whatkind of interest Washington is
going to take in the continent.
And I think the early signs are positive.
What is the potential for escalation here?
What do you see playing out over the nextfew weeks with m23 and where they are?
Do they advance further?
Does this escalate into more conflict?
(20:31):
What what's your best guess there?
One likely scenario is that m23will consolidate its position
Goma the city that they justtook over really is the key.
It's the gateway It hasa major airport there.
It's a major humanitarian hubIt's the gateway to these, uh,
resources that we talked about.
And I should mention just in passingtoo, it's not just economics for Rwanda.
(20:55):
There is a large, uh, Tutsiminority, uh, living in Eastern
Congo known as the Banimalenge.
They've been there for decades.
So, uh, the protection andsupport of this mino minority is
also a political goal of Kigali.
Um, I think the key question now willbe, uh, what kind of tolerance the
(21:17):
international community, includingthe United States has for allowing
M23 to continue to hold this key city.
As I mentioned, they didit once before in 2012.
There was a huge criticism, uh,of that rebel group and of Rwanda
for allowing that to happen.
And they eventually left, um, hasenough changed as we discussed
(21:39):
between 2012 and now to allowa more permanent, uh, presence.
Uh, in that important city for M23and for Rwanda, it remains to be seen,
but, uh, it wouldn't entirely surpriseme if we have a different outcome
this time than we did 12 years ago.
Tough question here, but if, if youwere in the, this administration or, or
(22:01):
helping shape policy on Africa today,what do you think is happening in those
discussions and what would you recommend?
That really is a tough question.
Um, The international communityhas never been entirely able to
satisfactorily answer Rwanda's demands.
(22:23):
Some people say they're reasonable.
Some people say they're unreasonable,but let's not forget this all ties
back to what happened in 1994.
And if you lump that, at least inthe regional context, context as
something, you know, as importantas say partition in South Asia, the
creation of the state of Israel.
We see how those decisions resonateand have presented almost insoluble
(22:48):
problems even to this day.
Um, so, uh, I think the newadministration and its Africa
team Uh, has a real challenge onits hands in its early days here.
Uh, so, so we'll see what happens.
The, the school solution, if you will,would be to, as we did in 2012, uh,
(23:11):
put pressure on Rwanda to pull out itsforces, to, uh, abide by the Rwanda
Accords, which was a peace accordthat, um, was in a process designed
to address this instability there.
Um, but we'll see what happens.
You know, Ryan, like, we talk aboutChina and Russia, but you, you, you
probably know, like, Biden went toAngola just before he left office.
(23:33):
And the, and the White House put a bigemphasis on China, you know, Russia
competition, and the Angolans didn'tlike it at all because there was a lot
of feedback that like, what about us?
Like, and you just look atsome of the statistics, 7.
2 million internally displacedpersons in the DRC right now.
I think 6 million people killed in 96during the first Congolese war, Congo war.
(23:57):
So there's a, I mean, the,the, the misery is incredible.
And we talk, I was talking to Paul,you know, we talk, I obviously do
a lot of talks about Ukraine andthe misery they're caused by the
Russians, but this, this crisis.
This situation, it's been anongoing crisis for years, is really
something that Americans shouldbe aware of and pay attention to.
(24:18):
And of course, at the end of theday, yeah, we have our strategic
interests, but, you know, as a humanbeing, it's just terrible to see,
kind of, some of the suffering.
And it's not just You know, Rwanda and,um, you know, the DRC, there are hundreds
of groups fighting, there are all kinds ofarmed groups, atrocities being committed.
So I don't want to go down thatrabbit hole too much on the podcast,
(24:40):
but we should probably say somethingabout the people of the DRC and
all the people that are suffering.
And Ryan, to be honest, I, I,I agree completely with Glenn
and I'm glad he brought it up.
Yeah.
Uh, you know, as we parse out thegeopolitics and the history of
it, uh, there is a humanitariancost to all this and it has been
ongoing for, for 30 years now.
(25:02):
Um, and you know, uh, for all thedifficulty of resolving the conflict
once and for all, the internationalcommunity, including the United States,
deserves a lot of credit for, uh,Actually making it a little bit better.
There aren't 15 countriesinvolved in the conflict anymore.
Uh, there's just really two or three.
(25:24):
Now that's still important,but you know, it's progress.
So, um, I think absolutely thehumanitarian dimension of this, uh,
needs to be, um, Uh, at the forefrontof whatever decisions are made.
And I guess you have this crisis now,you know, exploder expanding again,
at the same time that you have,you know, Syria, we've talked about
(25:48):
Lebanon, uh, Gaza, you know, Russia,Ukraine, I mean, we go this long list.
And one thing I would say is, you know,we mentioned other countries now that
are involved, the Turks, you know, UAE.
The good news may be is that some ofthose countries are our NATO allies.
Some of those countries wehave some common interest with.
And my own recommendation would bethat the Washington look to partner
(26:11):
with those countries to find the bestsolution We don't have to bear the burden
all by ourselves, you know, we do haveeuropean partners But I think the new
player here really in my mind is turkeybecause they do have some economic throw
weight They have invested a lot in inafrica, uh in building relationships
And where we have common interests,I think we should work with them.
Where we don't, then we shouldmake it clear to them that
(26:32):
we don't agree with them.
And, uh, if we have to push back onsome of the things they want to do,
uh, and then to a lesser extent, theUAE, the UAE, my understanding is the
UAE is just investing a lot, right?
But the Turks are there on theground and there are a lot of
business activities going on,which are not always a bad thing.
Yeah, I would, uh, I, again, Iwould agree with Glenn and I'd
say it's far from a bad thing.
(26:53):
I think some of these new players inAfrica, uh, the Gulf States, Turkey,
uh, will actually be much easier to workwith, uh, than China and certainly Russia.
Uh, and I think, uh, that presents newopportunities, uh, including in this long
running conflict in the Eastern Congo.
Thanks so much for the time.
This was great.
I don't know what we're doing next,Glenn, but, uh, looking forward to it.
(27:16):
And Paul, I hope we can, wecan have you back on as well.
Um, as you, as you embark on,on this, uh, teaching journey.
And I'm very jealous for the studentsin both of your classes there at IWP.
Thanks.
It was a real pleasure to be on with you.
Thanks.
Yeah, it's great seeing you, Ryan.
And, uh, we'll, I'm sure we'll havesomething to talk about very soon.
Yeah.
Unfortunately, but fortunately.
(27:37):
Yeah.
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