August 19, 2025 • 32 mins
Get a daily intel brief delivered directly to your email (for free) covering all things Russia, China, Middle East, and more at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/
In this episode of the RH Podcast, former CIA officer 🎖️ Ryan Fugit and multi-time Chief of Station Glenn Corn (34 years at CIA) break down the high-stakes Trump–Zelensky meetings in Washington, DC 🇺🇸 following Putin’s Alaska summit 🇷🇺.
👉 Here’s what you’ll learn:
🔹 Why Putin skipped a key lunch with U.S. Treasury & Commerce officials 🍽️
🔹 The hidden “carrot & stick” strategy behind Trump’s negotiations 🥕🔨
🔹 What Russia really wants before agreeing to a ceasefire 🚫🕊️
🔹 Ukraine’s shocking openness to land swaps & the future of Crimea 🗺️
🔹 How the Russian Orthodox Church is used as a weapon of influence ⛪
🔹 Whether NATO membership for Ukraine is still possible 🌍
🔹 The threat of “gray zone warfare” ⚔️ (cyber attacks, propaganda & sabotage)
🔹 PLUS: Glenn’s hot takes on spies, Cold War movies 🎬, and what history teaches us about de-escalation 📚
💡 Packed with real intelligence insight you won’t hear in mainstream media. If you want to understand the future of Ukraine, Russia, and global security, this is a must-watch.
👇 Join the conversation in the comments – Do you think Putin will agree to meaningful guarantees, or is this just another stalling tactic?
📌 Timestamps
- 00:00 – Welcome & Introductions
- 02:00 – Trump–Putin Alaska meeting secrets 🕵️
- 06:00 – Security guarantees for Ukraine 🇺🇦
- 10:00 – Land swaps, ceasefire debates & Zelensky’s position
- 14:00 – Russia’s use of the Orthodox Church as a weapon
- 20:00 – China, Taiwan & global security flashpoints 🌏
- 22:00 – Gray zone warfare explained
- 28:00 – Cold War movie lessons for today 🎥
- 31:00 – Final thoughts & what’s next
⚡ Don’t forget to:
👍 Like this video if you enjoy deep-dive analysis
🔔 Subscribe for more CIA-level insights into global security
📢 Share this episode with friends who follow world events
#Trump #Zelensky #Putin #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraine #Geopolitics #CIA #Podcast #NATO #Security #InternationalRelations
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Welcome everyone to anotheredition of the RH podcast.
Gare cohost here, Ryan Fut, formerCIA, officer and Army veteran.
I'm joined by a good friend, Glenn Korn,who many of you know now multi-time
chief of Station, 34 years in the USgovernment with most of that time at CIA.
And we are here to deconstructall things international security.
(00:21):
And today, of course, is Trump Zelensky.
Meetings in DC following this veryinteresting past weekend of the
meetings with Putin in Alaska.
So, Glenn, welcome.
Where are you?
Uh, where are you calling in from?
Great to see you again, Ryan,and to see all the subscribers
and viewers, even though I can'tsee them, but I'm imagining them.
(00:43):
I'm calling in from the Instituteof World Politics where I teach
and, uh, just taught a course andI'm in one of the classrooms, so.
Uh, based in dc, Washington, DC
can we ask what is the course thatpeople are getting from former
COS extraordinaire that theyprobably don't appreciate enough?
I'm teaching a course on home cooking.
(01:03):
How to Make an Egg.
I couldn't do that.
I'm teaching a course on, uh, thissemester on Turkish National Security.
Okay.
Let's get to the, let's get to the
business.
Is it okay Brian?
Yeah.
Bri Brian FUT here.
What are you drinking in that white cup?
I don't wanna,
uh, I have a, uh, he of vison from Munich.
Yeah.
(01:23):
Yeah.
Wow.
Yeah.
What a nice uber rushing.
Yeah.
Alright, so Trump zelensky today,um, a little bit of reporting
that's come out, which is, um,ceasefire still is not necessary.
There's some US guaranteesfor Ukraine's security.
Need to forego NATO membership, butthey could get NATO style or NATO
(01:46):
like support or security guarantees.
Right.
What else has happened thatwe should share with people?
And, and then we'll jumpinto the analysis here.
Okay.
Uh, yeah, thanks.
I mean, let's start with this.
I just, I find this very interesting.
Uh, NPR ran an article, I think over theweekend that somebody at the meetings
in Alaska left a. Schedule, and I'm sureyou were involved when you were overseas
(02:10):
and organizing like these VIP visits andthey put out the schedule, which you're
not supposed to like, share with people.
And so somebody made a mistake and leftit in a hotel room and it was found and
some journalists got their hands on it andthey, they had the schedule, the original
schedule for the meetings in Alaska.
And what I find interesting iswhat didn't happen in Alaska.
And so I wanna unpack that alittle bit if I can, if I may.
(02:32):
Yeah, let's do it on the schedule.
First of all, it was originallythere was supposed to be a tete
meeting between Trump and Putin.
That didn't happen.
The, the meeting included,uh, Marco Rubio and Steve Woff
and Sergey Avro and uh, Soff.
Right.
So that was interesting.
And by the way, I think that was asmart move by the President not to.
(02:55):
Do a one-on-one.
I think it was good to have hisadvisors in there with them.
Glen, did they
not have time together in the motorcade?
Just the two of them.
They
did, they did In the beast, like inthe, in the, but I mean, whatcha gonna
talk about there, you know, who pickedthe, who picked the, uh, mix tape?
Who decided on Barry Manalowfor the ride from the, from
the plane to the meeting spot?
(03:15):
Like, I don't think that's verysignificant And I some, some of
the hoopla and the media I thinkis a little silly about that.
Like what could they really discuss?
Uh, but the actual meeting, sowhat, what didn't happen was
there was supposed to be a lunch.
And at the lunch, uh, the Secretary ofCommerce and the Secretary of Treasury
were scheduled to be at that lunch.
And my understanding is they were inAlaska, but the lunch was canceled.
(03:40):
And I find that interesting because,you know, if, if you think about
it, Trump is probably sending themessage that if you are ready to
make a deal and agree to a ceasefire.
We can talk about likerolling back sanctions and
uh, maybe doing some business.
So you have the Secretaryof Treasury there, right?
Person, secretary of Commerce.
(04:03):
But Putin didn't do that.
And so there was no lunch, there wasno engagement from what I can tell
between the Secretary of Commerceand his Russian counterpart or
whoever Putin had from his side.
Maybe it was, uh, Demetrius.
Um, um, and then.
You know, there was supposedto be another meeting.
I think the total number of, uh, likehours for meetings was six hours.
(04:23):
That it was under three hours.
Uh, Putin left without the,the, the state lunch, like the,
uh, presidential hosted lunch.
And I think that's very interesting.
Like it tells me that the presidentdecided there's no point in having
this lunch and having that widerengagement because you're not
ready to make the deal that I want.
(04:43):
Right.
So now, so it was
a bit of a stick in in that case?
Yeah, I mean, I think like he,I've said this before, there
has to be a carrot in a stick.
And I think that, you know,he was probably offering the
carrot, Putin didn't take it.
And so, you know, I wouldn't callit like a, a bad, like, uh, how do
I say, like a, a super rough stick.
(05:04):
But I think there was a message thereand there's definitely like, we're
not gonna, we're not gonna rewardyou for not agreeing to a ceasefire.
By giving you like a meetingwith the Secretary of Treasury
and the Secretary of Commerce.
Two very, very important people ina country, which is the economic
powerhouse United States, and to acountry that needs economic help.
Russia, right.
(05:25):
Given the state of theireconomy, which is not good.
So that's one, two, um, you know,I, my understanding is after the
meetings, it was announced that theRussians for the first time agreed to
some form of, uh, security guaranteefor Ukraine as part of a settlement.
And, uh, if I'm not mistaken, thatthe United States would, could be part
of that agreement, which is what thepresident and the European leaders
(05:50):
and Zelensky were talking about today.
What would that look like?
That to me is very significant.
Now we have to be careful, you know,I personally don't trust Putin, you
know, he's definitely been manipulativebefore, said things before, and then,
you know, gone back on his word,deceived people, no doubt about it.
(06:10):
But that is a, a positive step becauseit's something that the Ukrainians
have said for a long time now.
Like for any kind of agreement, we haveto have some kind of security guarantee.
Uh, and now we go to the third point.
Let's remember, 'cause you know, thepresident's taking some heat for not
announcing secondary sanctions immediatelyafter, uh, the meeting in Alaska.
(06:31):
But let's be realistic, hemet with, um, Putin on Friday.
Was it Friday or Thursday?
Friday.
Friday.
Friday.
Sorry, my dates are all mixed up.
Uh, and then he met with Zelenskyin the White House on Monday with
our European partners, and I alsothink that's very, very important.
There's a lot of talk about, you know, theEuropeans were here to, to provide support
(06:51):
to Zelensky, but people seem to act asif the White House, the US government
did not have to agree to have those.
The Europeans here, they werethe guests of the White House.
From what I saw, therewas a very good meeting.
Uh, one, the rapport betweenZelensky and Trump was very good.
You know, a lot of people were worried wewere gonna have another February disaster.
(07:13):
It was not that, it was very good.
There was a, a lot ofrapport, uh, positive rapport.
And then there was a meeting withour European partners, the leaders
of some of the most importantEuropean countries, again, and,
and multilateral organizations.
And again, uh.
The, the, the mood was very good.
The, the interactionseemed to be very good.
(07:34):
I think the one point of contention ormaybe disagreement is on the ceasefire.
I think the German chancellor, you know,raised the issue of we need a ceasefire.
You know, let's push, let's put pressureon Moscow to agree to a ceasefire.
I think the president was notcommitted or committ, non-committal
to that, and he, you know, hesaid, we've done other, uh, peace
(07:56):
agreements without having a ceasefire.
Um, and I think that's probablystill gonna have to be worked out.
But coming out of this, I just readin the media that now he, president
Trump called Putin, and there will be ameeting now between Zelensky and Putin.
And then after that meeting,a meeting with, uh, Zelensky
Putin and President Trump.
So, I'm sorry for talking so much.
(08:17):
That was great.
Why no ceasefire.
Like what?
That's I think Russia's position.
Why do they not want to havea ceasefire at this point?
I think because the Russians won, it'slike a negotiating tactic for them.
They know that it's somethingwhich is very problematic for
the Ukrainians and for the West.
So this is something theycan use to apply pressure.
Two, they're, we've said this beforein the last uh, uh, discussion we had.
(08:40):
They wanna take as much territoryas they can and inflict as much
damage as they can on the Ukrainians.
Of course, the Ukrainians are inflictingdamage on the Russians as well.
So the Ukrainians have n you know,they're giving, I'd say as much,
well, they're giving quite a bit back.
What they're not doing is they're notattacking civilian targets like the
Russians are, which is heinous, right.
(09:01):
Um, but the Russians, you know, Ithink they see this as something
that they're gonna hold out there.
Like, we're not gonna give you a seatsfor until we get something we really want.
And the other significant thing today isPresident Zelinsky said, we're ready to
discuss like a land swap, some kind of.
Negotiation of territory,which is also very significant.
(09:21):
So obviously the devil's in thedetails on all of these issues.
There have to be more discussions,there has to be more engagement.
Uh, I saw the meetings today as, Imean, a lot of people were very worried
going into the meetings today, andwhen I, I'm almost giddy that they
were, they were, seemed so positive.
So I'm gonna take a win for a win, right?
(09:42):
I'm, I'm gonna be happy for today.
I was very worried I wasgonna be very depressed.
And that's because of the potentialrepeat from earlier this year that it
could have been an outcome like that,
it could have been an outcome like that,or, you know, I think now the ball's
in Putin's court, the, the pressure'son Putin because President Trump called
him and said, okay, time for a meeting.
And if Putin had said no.
(10:04):
He did before.
Remember in May he refused togo to Istanbul to meet with, uh,
Zelensky and Erdogan and PresidentTrump who offered to come.
He was in the Middle East in theGulf, and he said, I'll come.
And, uh, Putin said, no.
Now Putin's apparently saying yes.
That tells me that he's under pressure.
He knows like there's some, there'ssome leverage over him that can
(10:27):
be applied and cause him paint.
Given what we've heard now comingout of Friday and now Monday.
Do you feel the outcome ofthis is gonna change slightly?
Like maybe there's no ceasefire but.
Probably still some type of land swap.
I know one of the contingent, or oneof the negotiating positions I think
from Putin on Friday was in additionto land they've taken in parts of
(10:49):
Ukraine, they wanted additionalland in those particular provinces.
Right.
Um, as well that had not been takenby them, which is obviously another
maximalist negotiating tactic.
Makes sense.
But any, anything from your endon now going forward with what
we know might change the outcome?
Well, I, I do see the Russians arebacking off some of the, like the red
(11:10):
lines that they had or the, you know,the Maximus positions they've had.
Uh, so there's room, I think, fora negotiation and for an agreement
that they're not gonna get.
And if I were the, my personal opinion,if I were the Ukrainians, I would say
like, I've said this before, and Zpa,no, we're not gonna give you Zia.
You have to evacuate, zap, right?
If you want this war to stop,'cause this war is just as painful
(11:32):
for you, for you as it is for us.
We're not the only people suffering.
You know, like in Ong, and you know,I've said this before too, I think that
the Ukrainians, uh, they're, they'reindicating, they're ready to talk
about like how they can make a dealwith the Russians to end this thing.
And that may require them to,uh, have to seed some territory.
(11:55):
But I think that that should be, in myown opinion, temporary, the, like, they
should never agree that that territorybelongs to the Russian Federation
because it was part of Ukraine.
It should be considered part of Ukraine.
And hopefully the UnitedNations will recognize that.
And, uh, you know, in the internationalcourts and in other, uh, multilateral
(12:16):
venues, the Ukrainians can continueto argue that that is their territory.
Okay.
Another, another big, a big, big issuewas discussed today was, you know, like
getting back the Ukrainian children thathave been kidnapped by the Russians.
And that has to be, um, I thinkit was the, uh, the commissioner
from the EU who said that.
Like, you know, she said, I'm amother and a grandmother, and the
(12:36):
idea that like children could bekidnapped, we need to like get
those kids back to their families.
Right.
What, what about this stipulation thatcame from the Russian side that they
want the Russian Orthodox Church tobe, I don't know if it was the dominant
religion or present in these territoriesthat they could potentially be seated.
(12:58):
Yeah, this is a super complicated, andit's a, it's a piece of propaganda the
Russians have used, in my opinion fora long time Now, you know, they have
used the Russian Orthodox Church as aweapon, uh, in, in Ukraine, by the way.
They've done it in other places.
They use it to run, to supporttheir intelligence operations.
They use it to promote propaganda, andso it, they, and in the United States
(13:22):
and in Europe, they've been promotingthe idea that the Ukrainians were anti.
Church.
Church because they raided some ofthe Orthodox churches and they put
restrictions on the Orthodox church.
And you probably remember the,the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
separated from the RussianOrthodox Church from the patriarch.
And the Russiansobviously don't like that.
The, the patriarch in Russia, who is aformer KGB agent, um, didn't like, is that
(13:44):
right?
I did not know this.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, you know, for your listeners,one of the only cases that I am aware
of, of a ethnic Russian Americancommitting espionage for the Soviet
Union was a Army lieutenant colonelwho was retired, who was recruited
by his orthodox priest in Germany.
(14:05):
Okay.
So the Russians use the church forpolitical purposes, unfortunately.
And that's, I'm not saying thatall, you know, Orthodox, you know,
Russian Orthodox, uh, church followersor believers are Russian agents.
No, I'm not saying that and we shouldnever say that, but the Russians
unfortunately have kind of weaponized thechurch and the Ukrainians have taken steps
(14:27):
to defend themselves from the church.
And it's kind of negativeinfluence for Ukraine.
And the, I think the Russians arejust trying to promote this idea.
It's like they're saying like,you have to, uh, Russia has to be
an official language in Ukraine.
You know, then I guess the Ukrainianscan say, okay, Ukrainian has to
be an official language in Russia.
Right?
I mean, it's kind of crazy to me,but this is, again, I think this is
(14:50):
just what the Russians are doing.
They're trying to throw roadblocks in theway, and you know, stumbling blocks make
it that much harder to come to a dealso they can continue to buy time, grab
territory, and stave off the sanctions
or more sanctions.
You had mentioned earlier,Zaia and Caron Ong.
How so why those two places?
Like why does that come to mind foryou as potential red lines for them?
(15:14):
For the Ukrainian, they've been occupied.
Yeah.
Because the Russians don't havean occupied all of that territory.
Right.
And so they're saying that youhave just have to give it up to us.
I see you're saying we're not gonnado, we're like, we're fighting
for our territory and you know, Idon't like, we won't go into all
the historic back and forth, but.
Um, you know, there are probablysome territories that are al almost
fully occupied by the Russians, andthen there are some that are not.
(15:37):
And why would the Ukrainians agree tojust hand over a bunch of territory
that they've been, they've defended.
They've protected,
yeah.
Okay.
And it's being occupied by the Russians.
The Russians should leave thoseterritories, in my opinion, for a deal.
My, my prediction here is NATOmembership will, is like the.
Incredibly hard red line for the Russians.
(15:59):
Do you, do you see that changing,like Ukraine being allowed to do that?
Uh, I, I, well, maybe eventually.
It's gonna take a, a long time.
I don't think as long as Putin's inpower, like he's gonna agree to that,
he'll continue to cause mischief.
Um, but in the, in the, you know,the immediate future, I think what
(16:19):
the Ukrainians really need is aguar like realistic guarantee,
not, not a guarantee from Moscow.
'cause we know what that's worth.
Right.
Yeah.
They need a guarantee from like theEuropeans and a big role, what that role
will be for the US is not clear, but theUS has to be behind that and they have
to feel confident that it's not gonna beanother, you know, Budapest, uh, accord
(16:42):
where, you know, it says, okay, well.
We had an agreement, but we'rejust gonna turn the other way.
No, they, it's gotta be the Russians.
Understand.
If you try and encroach againon Ukrainian territory, after an
agreement is made, you'll pay a veryserious price and you're gonna have
to fight not just the Ukrainians,but uh, the Europeans and the US
other hot take.
(17:02):
Do you see them?
The Ukrainians losing Crimea at the endof this, I, I should say, I feel like
that is gonna be lost ground, sadly.
But I'm curious your take on it.
Uh, yeah, I would just say again,I am hopeful that over time
they can take Crimea temporary.
Yeah, okay.
I like
that.
Right.
And, uh, you know, I'm, I'm hopefulif that's what they want back then
(17:26):
they should continue to argue for.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
Anything we missed on what'shappened so far with Russia and
Ukraine in these re recent meetings?
No, I think the question nowis where is the meeting between
Zelensky and Putin gonna take place?
The bilateral, and then wherewould the trilateral take place?
(17:48):
And that will be interesting too.
Well, it can go back to likesome of the third country options
that we talked about before.
You know Turkey, by the way, what'sinteresting today is like, you
know, where was President Erdogan?
He wasn't at the White House.
Even though he's been promoting likea peace deal, he's been one of the
only presidents that's been speakingwith, you know, NATO leaders who's been
speaking with, uh, Putin, um, since 2022.
(18:13):
And he's always argued that youhave to maintain a dialogue,
like a channel of communication.
Um.
Uh, so I'm, I, I, that wasa question I had today.
Like, okay, that's interesting.
Um, you know, UAE my understanding is theywant it to be, or they're, they've offered
to be the, the place for negotiations.
Maybe Switzerland, maybe someother locations, you know, maybe,
(18:34):
let's think out of the box.
Maybe somewhere in Asia, maybein, um, Latin America, who knows.
Interesting.
Okay.
Anything
was these days, right?
Right.
And then yes, if Putin andZelensky meet, how's that gonna go?
And did I fact check me on this, Glenn?
Mm-hmm.
I thought I read today that, uh, presidentTrump had mentioned in a discussion he
(18:57):
had with the Chinese leader, she, thathe had promised President Trump in the
past, or at least stated that he wouldnot invade Taiwan on Trump's watch.
I read that in the, in thenews today too, somewhere.
That he made that promise.
Thoughts on that?
From a life in USG lookingat threats around the world,
(19:21):
uh, to quote the great RonaldReagan Trust but verify.
So, you know, I'm, I yeah, I I Iwouldn't take that at face value.
I mean, maybe I, I don't thinkthe Chinese wanna invade Taiwan.
Really?
They wanna take it withouthaving to go to war.
Right.
That's their per withouthaving to use military action.
(19:41):
So they'll try and like, get it that way.
And I should say too, 'causeI'm not like a, I'm not a great
China expert at all on Russia.
We should remember, we may be nowat the spot where we were in 2019,
2018, where Russia was occupyingparts of Ukraine, including Crimea.
(20:03):
The Donbass, they, they were promotinga civil war with their surrogate
forces, their little green men, right?
The Wagner troops.
They were conducting sabotage.
They were acts, they, they were,you know, doing massive propaganda,
disinformation against the Ukrainiansand they were doing cyber attacks.
So you can go down the list of whatthe Russians call active measures.
(20:24):
A lot of people in the US saylike gray zone operations.
We were probably going back to that space.
You know, Zelensky was meetingwith Putin before he was
talking with Putin and Zelinsky.
When he came to power, bythe way, he was the president
that ran on a ticket of peace.
Like we need to have likea dialogue with Russia.
So, um, he, we may be backin that space very soon.
(20:48):
It does not mean that the struggle's over.
And I would suggest thatthe war is not over.
And I hate to say that 'cause nobody wantsto be at war, but it'll just be war back
into that gray zone and we need to beaware of that and the Ukrainians are not
aware
of it.
So, question on that.
When you say gray zone and activemeasures, I suppose I think of it more as.
(21:10):
Some sabotage here or there, uh,information operations, but maybe not
counterinsurgency or gorilla type warfare.
Is that what you think?
Like I would assume if you'reUkraine and you lose this ground
and it's occupied by Russia, you areactively fighting from within there.
(21:31):
I would suggest that the Russians willdo things like try to encourage groups
inside of Ukraine, like regionally totry and separate some of the regions from
Kiev to encourage separatism to look atdifferent ethnic groups in Ukraine and
try and get them spun up all from an
information perspective.
Glenn, or you think there is From
(21:51):
information, from funding,from maybe arming them.
Manipulating them.
Uh, political action.
I think anything is gonna be on the table.
And, and we have to be well aware of that.
You know, one of the things theRussians are gonna try and do, and
they've been doing this since 2000,well they've been doing it since 1991.
That's definitely since thousand 14.
(22:12):
Trying to discourage like westerncompanies from doing business in Ukraine,
promoting the narrative of corruption.
Um, they, they are, you know, theydon't want Ukraine to recover and
they don't want Ukraine to prosper.
And that's very unfortunate.
As long as Vladimir Putin isthe president of Russia, I think
that's gonna be the policy.
Which hurts Russia, but
(22:32):
Totally.
Yeah.
Zero sum game mentality.
What, what about Zelensky orUkraine going the other direction?
Should they not be doing thesame in in occupied territory?
Well, that's a great question.
You know, one of the things, I thinkthe difference between 2014 or let's say
pre 2022 and today, as the Ukrainianshave showed, they have a very good
(22:52):
capability to strike back, and theRussians should be well aware of that.
The Ukrainians are conductingoperations inside of Russia.
Very effectively.
And so if the Russians wanna continue,like the, the gray, gray zone operations,
I think the Ukrainians have shownthey're very capable of doing the same.
So maybe that will be a deterrentagain, like for the Russians,
(23:14):
maybe that will convince them.
Maybe we should juste you know, slow down.
Ease, ease up, try a different way.
I doubt it, but I, I feel like Ukrainehas to be ready to go hard into that
space.
I, I doubt it too, but like I, sometimesI wanna be positive and you know, you're
drinking a he Ice, sir. And you know,who could've, who would ever thought
(23:34):
that the President of France and Gerand the chance of Germany would be
sitting in the White House with theUS President to like try and bring
peace to an another part of Europe?
Uh, you know, in 1939, in 1943,in 19 even probably 50, nobody
would really think that way.
So maybe.
(23:55):
This may be, you know, some, they say thatI'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
You know those lyrics, thatwas John, not Vladimir Lennon.
Lennon never sang that song.
Imagined.
Uh, but, but, uh, you know, maybeover time and, but the Russians
need to say, I used to argue thisto the Russians all the time.
(24:15):
Look at Europe, like the, like Europe,integrated Europe, the countries
that were warring, you know, theGermans and the French forever.
Now they're doing business together.
And as one German told me once, likeit makes no sense for us to go to
war with France anymore 'cause we'dbe blowing up our own factories.
Right?
Which you and I talked about last time.
Why would Russia go inand even start this war?
(24:36):
And it's so harmful to growth forthem and prosperity and opportunity
and it's Putin wanting to do it.
Well, we probably haveto ask ourselves too.
We gonna be controversial, but.
Like, why, why didn't they see that?
Like the, the benefit of kind ofintegrating economically trade?
(24:56):
Some Russians would say, becausewe were like shunned or we
were kept out of the, the mix.
I don't know if that's true, butagain, like I talk about the carrot,
if the Russians start doing things,this is one, this is a criticism I
have of the US policy over the last,let's say 10 years, maybe more.
We, we, we haven't reallyexplained what the carrot is.
(25:20):
We, we, we either, we talk in kind ofmushy terms or we talk about sanctions
and punishment, but what is the reward?
If Russia does something positive,what if they, what if they pull
their troops out of, you know,z uh, Lu, what are we gonna do?
Lift sanctions and secondarysanctions, I would think.
(25:42):
Okay.
Okay.
Then we lift sanctionsand then, which is a
carrot.
I
think, I
mean, but you're gonna get a lot ofopposition for people to do that, right?
So, like, politically, in theUnited States and in Europe,
you're gonna hear a lot.
And of course the Ukrainians are gonnasay, you can't do that because like, they
have to be punished for what they did.
So it's just gonna be very complicated.
(26:03):
Mm-hmm.
It's not gonna be easy.
The, the, the, the work on this is notgonna be done, let's say, you know, in
three months if a peace agreement issigned, there's gonna be a lot more, a
lot more work to be done, which is fine.
That's the way the world is.
Some great comments on our last videos.
One was this is too good forsomething that's free to listen to.
(26:23):
Fantastic discussion, veryimportant coverage on what has
been going on, what will be goingon, and what will become of it.
Thank you both.
Thanks for having Glenn on again, Brian.
So you are the, uh, the focal point there.
Great.
If you could have him back on asa regular monthly guest, which is
awesome, but I'm gonna find a veryfunny comment that someone left for us.
(26:45):
'cause I need to get your take on it.
One person said former CIA guys,might you recruit me here and I'll
go get you high value secrets.
I, I saw that one.
Little late guy.
Sorry.
You're too late.
All right, here it is.
We could easily find a solution toall of this if we simply looked back
at the great and historic Cold Wardocumentary spies like Us and use
(27:08):
the negotiation strategy that EmmettFitz Hu so strategically employed,
uh, that is from Valor Arc Designs.
That was the best commentI've seen in a long time.
So my question, Glen, you haveobviously seen spies like us.
Yes.
I mean,
just like, what are yourthoughts on that movie?
(27:29):
Great movie great.
I mean, like, you can'teven take it apart.
Like there's so many great, myfavorite scene is when the KGB
guys ca capture heavy chase in,uh, in like in the TA border.
And he's like, for every minuteyou don't answer the question,
like, cut off a finger.
Yours are mine, right?
And he slaps at me.
He goes, whatcha hitting me for that?
Hurts.
(27:50):
And he says, why are you here?
Who said you're here?
Why are you here?
He says, why am I here?
Why are you here?
I think it was Jean Paul Sarrathat said, uh, but let me refer to
another movie, which I think goes alittle bit like back more in history.
But every American should watch andit's called The Russians are Coming.
The Russians are coming.
It's a grant.
I don't know if you've ever seen it, Ryan.
It's a great,
(28:10):
I I've not, no.
From the 1960s, Alan Arkin, whoby the way, was a fluent Russian
speaker, uh, grew up speaking Russian.
Alan Arkin, great actor.
Um, um, oh God, what's his name?
Jonathan Winters, who my mother knew.
And I'll tell you thatstory offline sometime.
Like my mother was an actress and asinger, so she knew Jonathan Winters,
(28:32):
said he was one of the funniesthuman beings in the ever, and he was.
The cast.
But one of the things in this movie,it, you know, it was made in the sixties
at the, kinda like right af, like theheight of the Cold War, let's say.
And the idea of the movie was, um,like Russians and Americans like,
are so scared of each other thatthey can get crazy and hysterical.
But at the end of the day,they're human beings, right.
(28:56):
There's a famous scene where this Russiansubmarine gets stuck off like some
island, like Nantucket or somewhere inthe, the New England, and the captain of
the submarine sends a team to the islandto steal a boat so they can try and tug,
pull 'em off the, the, uh, the sandbar.
Alan Arkin leads this team.
(29:17):
They go into the town and they'relike this escapade like stupidity.
The town goes on alert, theyfigure out, they think they're
being invaded by Russia.
The militia, like the commanderof the militia, is like a World
War I vet. He has a broken sword.
It's like very like there's afamous scene where at the end, the
submarine comes into the harbor.
The, the captain of the submarine haslike the, the, uh, deck gun trained on
(29:40):
this village, like all the people inthe village, and they all have their
shotguns and their, you know, I don'tknow, blunder, busts, whatever, that
they're ready to shoot the submarine.
And the captain, it's like a standoff.
And the, the sheriff, I forget thename of the actor, but great actor, the
sheriff's, like, he stands, like, hegoes toe to toe with this captain, and
the captain threatens to shoot him, andthe sheriff says, you're under arrest.
(30:02):
He starts to write him a citation.
For parking, a submarine,illegal or something.
And he, like Adam says, if you don'tlike do this, like I'm gonna fire on you.
And, uh, the sheriff of the town basicallysays You, if you don't think I'm scared,
I'm scared, but I'm not gonna back down.
Right.
And then.
(30:23):
Like the, the Russians kind of back down.
Then there's, then the, alright,I'm not go through the whole story.
I won't waste your, your audience's time.
About our audience's time,but it's a great movie.
I recommend everybody like watch it.
And that one scene in particular,like I, I, I did something on LinkedIn
where I posted that and I said likeevery US official that deals with
Russia should watch that one scene.
(30:43):
Really?
Yeah.
Just
'cause of the deescalation.
The guy stood up, the sheriff, youknow, that's like America to me.
He said, listen, I, I'mnot gonna lie to you.
I'm scared like you may blow meup, but I'm not gonna back down
like I'm doing the right thing.
I'm gonna stay in my ground.
And the United States needsto stand ground with Ukraine,
in my opinion on this.
(31:04):
Let the Russians deescalate, let theRussians make some serious compromises,
and then maybe we can have a betterrelationship with Russia in the future.
Where the Russians could benefit.
'cause I say this all the time,the Russians are the ones that are
suffering as a result of this war.
Not as much as the Ukrainiansunfortunately, but they are suffering.
And the shame your leadershipis doing too, my opinion.
(31:24):
All right.
All right, Glen, thanks so much.
We appreciate it.
I know it's late where you are and, uh,I don't know where we'll see you next
time, what classroom you'll be in, ormaybe you're somewhere else overseas.
But, uh, looking forward to it.
Well, we'll find another issue.
I'm sure the world will bringus something to talk about and,
uh, we'll find some people.
Interesting.
I find interesting people all the timeto talk to, I was in the Home Depot
(31:46):
yesterday and I, I don't know how thishappened, but some, I was, there was a
guy from the Middle East with his sons.
I was buying a shelf from my houseand he starts talking to me and then
he says, oh, have you seen me on tv?
I'm a big expert on like theMiddle East, Saudi Arabia.
I'm a commentator.
I was a political scientist and a only,
only in Northern Virginia could
(32:07):
that happen at Home Depot.
Yeah.
And he is like a, he is like aMiddle East expert and he is ask,
asking me if I want him to come tomy house and help put in a shelf.
That's great.
Yes.
Okay.
All right, Glen, thank you so much.
Welcome everyone to anotheredition of the RH podcast.
Gare cohost here, Ryan Fut, formerCIA, officer and Army veteran.
I'm joined by a good friend, Glenn Korn,who many of you know now multi-time
chief of Station, 34 years in the USgovernment with most of that time at CIA.
And we are here to deconstructall things international security.
(00:21):
And today, of course, is Trump Zelensky.
Meetings in DC following this veryinteresting past weekend of the
meetings with Putin in Alaska.
So, Glenn, welcome.
Where are you?
Uh, where are you calling in from?
Great to see you again, Ryan,and to see all the subscribers
and viewers, even though I can'tsee them, but I'm imagining them.
(00:43):
I'm calling in from the Instituteof World Politics where I teach
and, uh, just taught a course andI'm in one of the classrooms, so.
Uh, based in dc, Washington, DC
can we ask what is the course thatpeople are getting from former
COS extraordinaire that theyprobably don't appreciate enough?
I'm teaching a course on home cooking.
(01:03):
How to Make an Egg.
I couldn't do that.
I'm teaching a course on, uh, thissemester on Turkish National Security.
Okay.
Let's get to the, let's get to the
business.
Is it okay Brian?
Yeah.
Bri Brian FUT here.
What are you drinking in that white cup?
I don't wanna,
uh, I have a, uh, he of vison from Munich.
Yeah.
(01:23):
Yeah.
Wow.
Yeah.
What a nice uber rushing.
Yeah.
Alright, so Trump zelensky today,um, a little bit of reporting
that's come out, which is, um,ceasefire still is not necessary.
There's some US guaranteesfor Ukraine's security.
Need to forego NATO membership, butthey could get NATO style or NATO
(01:46):
like support or security guarantees.
Right.
What else has happened thatwe should share with people?
And, and then we'll jumpinto the analysis here.
Okay.
Uh, yeah, thanks.
I mean, let's start with this.
I just, I find this very interesting.
Uh, NPR ran an article, I think over theweekend that somebody at the meetings
in Alaska left a. Schedule, and I'm sureyou were involved when you were overseas
(02:10):
and organizing like these VIP visits andthey put out the schedule, which you're
not supposed to like, share with people.
And so somebody made a mistake and leftit in a hotel room and it was found and
some journalists got their hands on it andthey, they had the schedule, the original
schedule for the meetings in Alaska.
And what I find interesting iswhat didn't happen in Alaska.
And so I wanna unpack that alittle bit if I can, if I may.
(02:32):
Yeah, let's do it on the schedule.
First of all, it was originallythere was supposed to be a tete
meeting between Trump and Putin.
That didn't happen.
The, the meeting included,uh, Marco Rubio and Steve Woff
and Sergey Avro and uh, Soff.
Right.
So that was interesting.
And by the way, I think that was asmart move by the President not to.
(02:55):
Do a one-on-one.
I think it was good to have hisadvisors in there with them.
Glen, did they
not have time together in the motorcade?
Just the two of them.
They
did, they did In the beast, like inthe, in the, but I mean, whatcha gonna
talk about there, you know, who pickedthe, who picked the, uh, mix tape?
Who decided on Barry Manalowfor the ride from the, from
the plane to the meeting spot?
(03:15):
Like, I don't think that's verysignificant And I some, some of
the hoopla and the media I thinkis a little silly about that.
Like what could they really discuss?
Uh, but the actual meeting, sowhat, what didn't happen was
there was supposed to be a lunch.
And at the lunch, uh, the Secretary ofCommerce and the Secretary of Treasury
were scheduled to be at that lunch.
And my understanding is they were inAlaska, but the lunch was canceled.
(03:40):
And I find that interesting because,you know, if, if you think about
it, Trump is probably sending themessage that if you are ready to
make a deal and agree to a ceasefire.
We can talk about likerolling back sanctions and
uh, maybe doing some business.
So you have the Secretaryof Treasury there, right?
Person, secretary of Commerce.
(04:03):
But Putin didn't do that.
And so there was no lunch, there wasno engagement from what I can tell
between the Secretary of Commerceand his Russian counterpart or
whoever Putin had from his side.
Maybe it was, uh, Demetrius.
Um, um, and then.
You know, there was supposedto be another meeting.
I think the total number of, uh, likehours for meetings was six hours.
(04:23):
That it was under three hours.
Uh, Putin left without the,the, the state lunch, like the,
uh, presidential hosted lunch.
And I think that's very interesting.
Like it tells me that the presidentdecided there's no point in having
this lunch and having that widerengagement because you're not
ready to make the deal that I want.
(04:43):
Right.
So now, so it was
a bit of a stick in in that case?
Yeah, I mean, I think like he,I've said this before, there
has to be a carrot in a stick.
And I think that, you know,he was probably offering the
carrot, Putin didn't take it.
And so, you know, I wouldn't callit like a, a bad, like, uh, how do
I say, like a, a super rough stick.
(05:04):
But I think there was a message thereand there's definitely like, we're
not gonna, we're not gonna rewardyou for not agreeing to a ceasefire.
By giving you like a meetingwith the Secretary of Treasury
and the Secretary of Commerce.
Two very, very important people ina country, which is the economic
powerhouse United States, and to acountry that needs economic help.
Russia, right.
(05:25):
Given the state of theireconomy, which is not good.
So that's one, two, um, you know,I, my understanding is after the
meetings, it was announced that theRussians for the first time agreed to
some form of, uh, security guaranteefor Ukraine as part of a settlement.
And, uh, if I'm not mistaken, thatthe United States would, could be part
of that agreement, which is what thepresident and the European leaders
(05:50):
and Zelensky were talking about today.
What would that look like?
That to me is very significant.
Now we have to be careful, you know,I personally don't trust Putin, you
know, he's definitely been manipulativebefore, said things before, and then,
you know, gone back on his word,deceived people, no doubt about it.
(06:10):
But that is a, a positive step becauseit's something that the Ukrainians
have said for a long time now.
Like for any kind of agreement, we haveto have some kind of security guarantee.
Uh, and now we go to the third point.
Let's remember, 'cause you know, thepresident's taking some heat for not
announcing secondary sanctions immediatelyafter, uh, the meeting in Alaska.
(06:31):
But let's be realistic, hemet with, um, Putin on Friday.
Was it Friday or Thursday?
Friday.
Friday.
Friday.
Sorry, my dates are all mixed up.
Uh, and then he met with Zelenskyin the White House on Monday with
our European partners, and I alsothink that's very, very important.
There's a lot of talk about, you know, theEuropeans were here to, to provide support
(06:51):
to Zelensky, but people seem to act asif the White House, the US government
did not have to agree to have those.
The Europeans here, they werethe guests of the White House.
From what I saw, therewas a very good meeting.
Uh, one, the rapport betweenZelensky and Trump was very good.
You know, a lot of people were worried wewere gonna have another February disaster.
(07:13):
It was not that, it was very good.
There was a, a lot ofrapport, uh, positive rapport.
And then there was a meeting withour European partners, the leaders
of some of the most importantEuropean countries, again, and,
and multilateral organizations.
And again, uh.
The, the, the mood was very good.
The, the interactionseemed to be very good.
(07:34):
I think the one point of contention ormaybe disagreement is on the ceasefire.
I think the German chancellor, you know,raised the issue of we need a ceasefire.
You know, let's push, let's put pressureon Moscow to agree to a ceasefire.
I think the president was notcommitted or committ, non-committal
to that, and he, you know, hesaid, we've done other, uh, peace
(07:56):
agreements without having a ceasefire.
Um, and I think that's probablystill gonna have to be worked out.
But coming out of this, I just readin the media that now he, president
Trump called Putin, and there will be ameeting now between Zelensky and Putin.
And then after that meeting,a meeting with, uh, Zelensky
Putin and President Trump.
So, I'm sorry for talking so much.
(08:17):
That was great.
Why no ceasefire.
Like what?
That's I think Russia's position.
Why do they not want to havea ceasefire at this point?
I think because the Russians won, it'slike a negotiating tactic for them.
They know that it's somethingwhich is very problematic for
the Ukrainians and for the West.
So this is something theycan use to apply pressure.
Two, they're, we've said this beforein the last uh, uh, discussion we had.
(08:40):
They wanna take as much territoryas they can and inflict as much
damage as they can on the Ukrainians.
Of course, the Ukrainians are inflictingdamage on the Russians as well.
So the Ukrainians have n you know,they're giving, I'd say as much,
well, they're giving quite a bit back.
What they're not doing is they're notattacking civilian targets like the
Russians are, which is heinous, right.
(09:01):
Um, but the Russians, you know, Ithink they see this as something
that they're gonna hold out there.
Like, we're not gonna give you a seatsfor until we get something we really want.
And the other significant thing today isPresident Zelinsky said, we're ready to
discuss like a land swap, some kind of.
Negotiation of territory,which is also very significant.
(09:21):
So obviously the devil's in thedetails on all of these issues.
There have to be more discussions,there has to be more engagement.
Uh, I saw the meetings today as, Imean, a lot of people were very worried
going into the meetings today, andwhen I, I'm almost giddy that they
were, they were, seemed so positive.
So I'm gonna take a win for a win, right?
(09:42):
I'm, I'm gonna be happy for today.
I was very worried I wasgonna be very depressed.
And that's because of the potentialrepeat from earlier this year that it
could have been an outcome like that,
it could have been an outcome like that,or, you know, I think now the ball's
in Putin's court, the, the pressure'son Putin because President Trump called
him and said, okay, time for a meeting.
And if Putin had said no.
(10:04):
He did before.
Remember in May he refused togo to Istanbul to meet with, uh,
Zelensky and Erdogan and PresidentTrump who offered to come.
He was in the Middle East in theGulf, and he said, I'll come.
And, uh, Putin said, no.
Now Putin's apparently saying yes.
That tells me that he's under pressure.
He knows like there's some, there'ssome leverage over him that can
(10:27):
be applied and cause him paint.
Given what we've heard now comingout of Friday and now Monday.
Do you feel the outcome ofthis is gonna change slightly?
Like maybe there's no ceasefire but.
Probably still some type of land swap.
I know one of the contingent, or oneof the negotiating positions I think
from Putin on Friday was in additionto land they've taken in parts of
(10:49):
Ukraine, they wanted additionalland in those particular provinces.
Right.
Um, as well that had not been takenby them, which is obviously another
maximalist negotiating tactic.
Makes sense.
But any, anything from your endon now going forward with what
we know might change the outcome?
Well, I, I do see the Russians arebacking off some of the, like the red
(11:10):
lines that they had or the, you know,the Maximus positions they've had.
Uh, so there's room, I think, fora negotiation and for an agreement
that they're not gonna get.
And if I were the, my personal opinion,if I were the Ukrainians, I would say
like, I've said this before, and Zpa,no, we're not gonna give you Zia.
You have to evacuate, zap, right?
If you want this war to stop,'cause this war is just as painful
(11:32):
for you, for you as it is for us.
We're not the only people suffering.
You know, like in Ong, and you know,I've said this before too, I think that
the Ukrainians, uh, they're, they'reindicating, they're ready to talk
about like how they can make a dealwith the Russians to end this thing.
And that may require them to,uh, have to seed some territory.
(11:55):
But I think that that should be, in myown opinion, temporary, the, like, they
should never agree that that territorybelongs to the Russian Federation
because it was part of Ukraine.
It should be considered part of Ukraine.
And hopefully the UnitedNations will recognize that.
And, uh, you know, in the internationalcourts and in other, uh, multilateral
(12:16):
venues, the Ukrainians can continueto argue that that is their territory.
Okay.
Another, another big, a big, big issuewas discussed today was, you know, like
getting back the Ukrainian children thathave been kidnapped by the Russians.
And that has to be, um, I thinkit was the, uh, the commissioner
from the EU who said that.
Like, you know, she said, I'm amother and a grandmother, and the
(12:36):
idea that like children could bekidnapped, we need to like get
those kids back to their families.
Right.
What, what about this stipulation thatcame from the Russian side that they
want the Russian Orthodox Church tobe, I don't know if it was the dominant
religion or present in these territoriesthat they could potentially be seated.
(12:58):
Yeah, this is a super complicated, andit's a, it's a piece of propaganda the
Russians have used, in my opinion fora long time Now, you know, they have
used the Russian Orthodox Church as aweapon, uh, in, in Ukraine, by the way.
They've done it in other places.
They use it to run, to supporttheir intelligence operations.
They use it to promote propaganda, andso it, they, and in the United States
(13:22):
and in Europe, they've been promotingthe idea that the Ukrainians were anti.
Church.
Church because they raided some ofthe Orthodox churches and they put
restrictions on the Orthodox church.
And you probably remember the,the Ukrainian Orthodox Church
separated from the RussianOrthodox Church from the patriarch.
And the Russiansobviously don't like that.
The, the patriarch in Russia, who is aformer KGB agent, um, didn't like, is that
(13:44):
right?
I did not know this.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, you know, for your listeners,one of the only cases that I am aware
of, of a ethnic Russian Americancommitting espionage for the Soviet
Union was a Army lieutenant colonelwho was retired, who was recruited
by his orthodox priest in Germany.
(14:05):
Okay.
So the Russians use the church forpolitical purposes, unfortunately.
And that's, I'm not saying thatall, you know, Orthodox, you know,
Russian Orthodox, uh, church followersor believers are Russian agents.
No, I'm not saying that and we shouldnever say that, but the Russians
unfortunately have kind of weaponized thechurch and the Ukrainians have taken steps
(14:27):
to defend themselves from the church.
And it's kind of negativeinfluence for Ukraine.
And the, I think the Russians arejust trying to promote this idea.
It's like they're saying like,you have to, uh, Russia has to be
an official language in Ukraine.
You know, then I guess the Ukrainianscan say, okay, Ukrainian has to
be an official language in Russia.
Right?
I mean, it's kind of crazy to me,but this is, again, I think this is
(14:50):
just what the Russians are doing.
They're trying to throw roadblocks in theway, and you know, stumbling blocks make
it that much harder to come to a dealso they can continue to buy time, grab
territory, and stave off the sanctions
or more sanctions.
You had mentioned earlier,Zaia and Caron Ong.
How so why those two places?
Like why does that come to mind foryou as potential red lines for them?
(15:14):
For the Ukrainian, they've been occupied.
Yeah.
Because the Russians don't havean occupied all of that territory.
Right.
And so they're saying that youhave just have to give it up to us.
I see you're saying we're not gonnado, we're like, we're fighting
for our territory and you know, Idon't like, we won't go into all
the historic back and forth, but.
Um, you know, there are probablysome territories that are al almost
fully occupied by the Russians, andthen there are some that are not.
(15:37):
And why would the Ukrainians agree tojust hand over a bunch of territory
that they've been, they've defended.
They've protected,
yeah.
Okay.
And it's being occupied by the Russians.
The Russians should leave thoseterritories, in my opinion, for a deal.
My, my prediction here is NATOmembership will, is like the.
Incredibly hard red line for the Russians.
(15:59):
Do you, do you see that changing,like Ukraine being allowed to do that?
Uh, I, I, well, maybe eventually.
It's gonna take a, a long time.
I don't think as long as Putin's inpower, like he's gonna agree to that,
he'll continue to cause mischief.
Um, but in the, in the, you know,the immediate future, I think what
(16:19):
the Ukrainians really need is aguar like realistic guarantee,
not, not a guarantee from Moscow.
'cause we know what that's worth.
Right.
Yeah.
They need a guarantee from like theEuropeans and a big role, what that role
will be for the US is not clear, but theUS has to be behind that and they have
to feel confident that it's not gonna beanother, you know, Budapest, uh, accord
(16:42):
where, you know, it says, okay, well.
We had an agreement, but we'rejust gonna turn the other way.
No, they, it's gotta be the Russians.
Understand.
If you try and encroach againon Ukrainian territory, after an
agreement is made, you'll pay a veryserious price and you're gonna have
to fight not just the Ukrainians,but uh, the Europeans and the US
other hot take.
(17:02):
Do you see them?
The Ukrainians losing Crimea at the endof this, I, I should say, I feel like
that is gonna be lost ground, sadly.
But I'm curious your take on it.
Uh, yeah, I would just say again,I am hopeful that over time
they can take Crimea temporary.
Yeah, okay.
I like
that.
Right.
And, uh, you know, I'm, I'm hopefulif that's what they want back then
(17:26):
they should continue to argue for.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
Anything we missed on what'shappened so far with Russia and
Ukraine in these re recent meetings?
No, I think the question nowis where is the meeting between
Zelensky and Putin gonna take place?
The bilateral, and then wherewould the trilateral take place?
(17:48):
And that will be interesting too.
Well, it can go back to likesome of the third country options
that we talked about before.
You know Turkey, by the way, what'sinteresting today is like, you
know, where was President Erdogan?
He wasn't at the White House.
Even though he's been promoting likea peace deal, he's been one of the
only presidents that's been speakingwith, you know, NATO leaders who's been
speaking with, uh, Putin, um, since 2022.
(18:13):
And he's always argued that youhave to maintain a dialogue,
like a channel of communication.
Um.
Uh, so I'm, I, I, that wasa question I had today.
Like, okay, that's interesting.
Um, you know, UAE my understanding is theywant it to be, or they're, they've offered
to be the, the place for negotiations.
Maybe Switzerland, maybe someother locations, you know, maybe,
(18:34):
let's think out of the box.
Maybe somewhere in Asia, maybein, um, Latin America, who knows.
Interesting.
Okay.
Anything
was these days, right?
Right.
And then yes, if Putin andZelensky meet, how's that gonna go?
And did I fact check me on this, Glenn?
Mm-hmm.
I thought I read today that, uh, presidentTrump had mentioned in a discussion he
(18:57):
had with the Chinese leader, she, thathe had promised President Trump in the
past, or at least stated that he wouldnot invade Taiwan on Trump's watch.
I read that in the, in thenews today too, somewhere.
That he made that promise.
Thoughts on that?
From a life in USG lookingat threats around the world,
(19:21):
uh, to quote the great RonaldReagan Trust but verify.
So, you know, I'm, I yeah, I I Iwouldn't take that at face value.
I mean, maybe I, I don't thinkthe Chinese wanna invade Taiwan.
Really?
They wanna take it withouthaving to go to war.
Right.
That's their per withouthaving to use military action.
(19:41):
So they'll try and like, get it that way.
And I should say too, 'causeI'm not like a, I'm not a great
China expert at all on Russia.
We should remember, we may be nowat the spot where we were in 2019,
2018, where Russia was occupyingparts of Ukraine, including Crimea.
(20:03):
The Donbass, they, they were promotinga civil war with their surrogate
forces, their little green men, right?
The Wagner troops.
They were conducting sabotage.
They were acts, they, they were,you know, doing massive propaganda,
disinformation against the Ukrainiansand they were doing cyber attacks.
So you can go down the list of whatthe Russians call active measures.
(20:24):
A lot of people in the US saylike gray zone operations.
We were probably going back to that space.
You know, Zelensky was meetingwith Putin before he was
talking with Putin and Zelinsky.
When he came to power, bythe way, he was the president
that ran on a ticket of peace.
Like we need to have likea dialogue with Russia.
So, um, he, we may be backin that space very soon.
(20:48):
It does not mean that the struggle's over.
And I would suggest thatthe war is not over.
And I hate to say that 'cause nobody wantsto be at war, but it'll just be war back
into that gray zone and we need to beaware of that and the Ukrainians are not
aware
of it.
So, question on that.
When you say gray zone and activemeasures, I suppose I think of it more as.
(21:10):
Some sabotage here or there, uh,information operations, but maybe not
counterinsurgency or gorilla type warfare.
Is that what you think?
Like I would assume if you'reUkraine and you lose this ground
and it's occupied by Russia, you areactively fighting from within there.
(21:31):
I would suggest that the Russians willdo things like try to encourage groups
inside of Ukraine, like regionally totry and separate some of the regions from
Kiev to encourage separatism to look atdifferent ethnic groups in Ukraine and
try and get them spun up all from an
information perspective.
Glenn, or you think there is From
(21:51):
information, from funding,from maybe arming them.
Manipulating them.
Uh, political action.
I think anything is gonna be on the table.
And, and we have to be well aware of that.
You know, one of the things theRussians are gonna try and do, and
they've been doing this since 2000,well they've been doing it since 1991.
That's definitely since thousand 14.
(22:12):
Trying to discourage like westerncompanies from doing business in Ukraine,
promoting the narrative of corruption.
Um, they, they are, you know, theydon't want Ukraine to recover and
they don't want Ukraine to prosper.
And that's very unfortunate.
As long as Vladimir Putin isthe president of Russia, I think
that's gonna be the policy.
Which hurts Russia, but
(22:32):
Totally.
Yeah.
Zero sum game mentality.
What, what about Zelensky orUkraine going the other direction?
Should they not be doing thesame in in occupied territory?
Well, that's a great question.
You know, one of the things, I thinkthe difference between 2014 or let's say
pre 2022 and today, as the Ukrainianshave showed, they have a very good
(22:52):
capability to strike back, and theRussians should be well aware of that.
The Ukrainians are conductingoperations inside of Russia.
Very effectively.
And so if the Russians wanna continue,like the, the gray, gray zone operations,
I think the Ukrainians have shownthey're very capable of doing the same.
So maybe that will be a deterrentagain, like for the Russians,
(23:14):
maybe that will convince them.
Maybe we should juste you know, slow down.
Ease, ease up, try a different way.
I doubt it, but I, I feel like Ukrainehas to be ready to go hard into that
space.
I, I doubt it too, but like I, sometimesI wanna be positive and you know, you're
drinking a he Ice, sir. And you know,who could've, who would ever thought
(23:34):
that the President of France and Gerand the chance of Germany would be
sitting in the White House with theUS President to like try and bring
peace to an another part of Europe?
Uh, you know, in 1939, in 1943,in 19 even probably 50, nobody
would really think that way.
So maybe.
(23:55):
This may be, you know, some, they say thatI'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.
You know those lyrics, thatwas John, not Vladimir Lennon.
Lennon never sang that song.
Imagined.
Uh, but, but, uh, you know, maybeover time and, but the Russians
need to say, I used to argue thisto the Russians all the time.
(24:15):
Look at Europe, like the, like Europe,integrated Europe, the countries
that were warring, you know, theGermans and the French forever.
Now they're doing business together.
And as one German told me once, likeit makes no sense for us to go to
war with France anymore 'cause we'dbe blowing up our own factories.
Right?
Which you and I talked about last time.
Why would Russia go inand even start this war?
(24:36):
And it's so harmful to growth forthem and prosperity and opportunity
and it's Putin wanting to do it.
Well, we probably haveto ask ourselves too.
We gonna be controversial, but.
Like, why, why didn't they see that?
Like the, the benefit of kind ofintegrating economically trade?
(24:56):
Some Russians would say, becausewe were like shunned or we
were kept out of the, the mix.
I don't know if that's true, butagain, like I talk about the carrot,
if the Russians start doing things,this is one, this is a criticism I
have of the US policy over the last,let's say 10 years, maybe more.
We, we, we haven't reallyexplained what the carrot is.
(25:20):
We, we, we either, we talk in kind ofmushy terms or we talk about sanctions
and punishment, but what is the reward?
If Russia does something positive,what if they, what if they pull
their troops out of, you know,z uh, Lu, what are we gonna do?
Lift sanctions and secondarysanctions, I would think.
(25:42):
Okay.
Okay.
Then we lift sanctionsand then, which is a
carrot.
I
think, I
mean, but you're gonna get a lot ofopposition for people to do that, right?
So, like, politically, in theUnited States and in Europe,
you're gonna hear a lot.
And of course the Ukrainians are gonnasay, you can't do that because like, they
have to be punished for what they did.
So it's just gonna be very complicated.
(26:03):
Mm-hmm.
It's not gonna be easy.
The, the, the, the work on this is notgonna be done, let's say, you know, in
three months if a peace agreement issigned, there's gonna be a lot more, a
lot more work to be done, which is fine.
That's the way the world is.
Some great comments on our last videos.
One was this is too good forsomething that's free to listen to.
(26:23):
Fantastic discussion, veryimportant coverage on what has
been going on, what will be goingon, and what will become of it.
Thank you both.
Thanks for having Glenn on again, Brian.
So you are the, uh, the focal point there.
Great.
If you could have him back on asa regular monthly guest, which is
awesome, but I'm gonna find a veryfunny comment that someone left for us.
(26:45):
'cause I need to get your take on it.
One person said former CIA guys,might you recruit me here and I'll
go get you high value secrets.
I, I saw that one.
Little late guy.
Sorry.
You're too late.
All right, here it is.
We could easily find a solution toall of this if we simply looked back
at the great and historic Cold Wardocumentary spies like Us and use
(27:08):
the negotiation strategy that EmmettFitz Hu so strategically employed,
uh, that is from Valor Arc Designs.
That was the best commentI've seen in a long time.
So my question, Glen, you haveobviously seen spies like us.
Yes.
I mean,
just like, what are yourthoughts on that movie?
(27:29):
Great movie great.
I mean, like, you can'teven take it apart.
Like there's so many great, myfavorite scene is when the KGB
guys ca capture heavy chase in,uh, in like in the TA border.
And he's like, for every minuteyou don't answer the question,
like, cut off a finger.
Yours are mine, right?
And he slaps at me.
He goes, whatcha hitting me for that?
Hurts.
(27:50):
And he says, why are you here?
Who said you're here?
Why are you here?
He says, why am I here?
Why are you here?
I think it was Jean Paul Sarrathat said, uh, but let me refer to
another movie, which I think goes alittle bit like back more in history.
But every American should watch andit's called The Russians are Coming.
The Russians are coming.
It's a grant.
I don't know if you've ever seen it, Ryan.
It's a great,
(28:10):
I I've not, no.
From the 1960s, Alan Arkin, whoby the way, was a fluent Russian
speaker, uh, grew up speaking Russian.
Alan Arkin, great actor.
Um, um, oh God, what's his name?
Jonathan Winters, who my mother knew.
And I'll tell you thatstory offline sometime.
Like my mother was an actress and asinger, so she knew Jonathan Winters,
(28:32):
said he was one of the funniesthuman beings in the ever, and he was.
The cast.
But one of the things in this movie,it, you know, it was made in the sixties
at the, kinda like right af, like theheight of the Cold War, let's say.
And the idea of the movie was, um,like Russians and Americans like,
are so scared of each other thatthey can get crazy and hysterical.
But at the end of the day,they're human beings, right.
(28:56):
There's a famous scene where this Russiansubmarine gets stuck off like some
island, like Nantucket or somewhere inthe, the New England, and the captain of
the submarine sends a team to the islandto steal a boat so they can try and tug,
pull 'em off the, the, uh, the sandbar.
Alan Arkin leads this team.
(29:17):
They go into the town and they'relike this escapade like stupidity.
The town goes on alert, theyfigure out, they think they're
being invaded by Russia.
The militia, like the commanderof the militia, is like a World
War I vet. He has a broken sword.
It's like very like there's afamous scene where at the end, the
submarine comes into the harbor.
The, the captain of the submarine haslike the, the, uh, deck gun trained on
(29:40):
this village, like all the people inthe village, and they all have their
shotguns and their, you know, I don'tknow, blunder, busts, whatever, that
they're ready to shoot the submarine.
And the captain, it's like a standoff.
And the, the sheriff, I forget thename of the actor, but great actor, the
sheriff's, like, he stands, like, hegoes toe to toe with this captain, and
the captain threatens to shoot him, andthe sheriff says, you're under arrest.
(30:02):
He starts to write him a citation.
For parking, a submarine,illegal or something.
And he, like Adam says, if you don'tlike do this, like I'm gonna fire on you.
And, uh, the sheriff of the town basicallysays You, if you don't think I'm scared,
I'm scared, but I'm not gonna back down.
Right.
And then.
(30:23):
Like the, the Russians kind of back down.
Then there's, then the, alright,I'm not go through the whole story.
I won't waste your, your audience's time.
About our audience's time,but it's a great movie.
I recommend everybody like watch it.
And that one scene in particular,like I, I, I did something on LinkedIn
where I posted that and I said likeevery US official that deals with
Russia should watch that one scene.
(30:43):
Really?
Yeah.
Just
'cause of the deescalation.
The guy stood up, the sheriff, youknow, that's like America to me.
He said, listen, I, I'mnot gonna lie to you.
I'm scared like you may blow meup, but I'm not gonna back down
like I'm doing the right thing.
I'm gonna stay in my ground.
And the United States needsto stand ground with Ukraine,
in my opinion on this.
(31:04):
Let the Russians deescalate, let theRussians make some serious compromises,
and then maybe we can have a betterrelationship with Russia in the future.
Where the Russians could benefit.
'cause I say this all the time,the Russians are the ones that are
suffering as a result of this war.
Not as much as the Ukrainiansunfortunately, but they are suffering.
And the shame your leadershipis doing too, my opinion.
(31:24):
All right.
All right, Glen, thanks so much.
We appreciate it.
I know it's late where you are and, uh,I don't know where we'll see you next
time, what classroom you'll be in, ormaybe you're somewhere else overseas.
But, uh, looking forward to it.
Well, we'll find another issue.
I'm sure the world will bringus something to talk about and,
uh, we'll find some people.
Interesting.
I find interesting people all the timeto talk to, I was in the Home Depot
(31:46):
yesterday and I, I don't know how thishappened, but some, I was, there was a
guy from the Middle East with his sons.
I was buying a shelf from my houseand he starts talking to me and then
he says, oh, have you seen me on tv?
I'm a big expert on like theMiddle East, Saudi Arabia.
I'm a commentator.
I was a political scientist and a only,
only in Northern Virginia could
(32:07):
that happen at Home Depot.
Yeah.
And he is like a, he is like aMiddle East expert and he is ask,
asking me if I want him to come tomy house and help put in a shelf.
That's great.
Yes.
Okay.
All right, Glen, thank you so much.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.