January 18, 2025 • 29 mins
In this special crossover edition of Combat Story and the Mad Minute, we discuss regional issues in the Middle East with 30 year CIA and State Department legend Glenn Corn. We delve into the significant recent developments in the Middle East, focusing on the ceasefire agreements involving Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah, as well as Lebanon's election of a new president after a prolonged political deadlock.
Israel and Hamas reached a pivotal ceasefire agreement after 15 months of intense conflict. This truce, facilitated by international mediators including U.S. President Joe Biden, President-elect Donald Trump, and Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, aims to end hostilities and initiate the release of hostages and prisoners. The first phase, set to commence on January 19, 2025, includes a six-week truce during which Hamas will release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Subsequent phases will address the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the reconstruction of the region under international supervision.
In Lebanon, the political landscape has undergone a transformative change with the election of army commander Joseph Aoun as president on January 9, 2025, ending a two-year vacancy. Aoun secured 99 votes in the parliamentary session, surpassing the required two-thirds majority. His election is seen as a diminishment of Hezbollah's influence, especially following the recent conflict with Israel and the assassination of veteran leader Hassan Nasrallah. In his victory speech, President Aoun emphasized a new phase for Lebanon, commitment to the ceasefire with Israel, and the establishment of a national security strategy. His presidency is viewed as pivotal for the country's postwar reconstruction efforts and economic recovery.
Join us as we analyze the roles of key figures such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Hamas' interim political chief Khalil al-Hayya, and Egypt's General Intelligence Director Hassan Rashad in these negotiations. We also explore the implications of these ceasefires and Lebanon's presidential election on the geopolitical landscape, the challenges in implementing the agreements, and the prospects for lasting peace in the region.
Don't miss this comprehensive discussion on the dynamic and evolving situation in Lebanon and Israel, providing insights into the complex interplay of political and military strategies shaping the future of the Middle East.
Check out our Combat Story Newsletter at www.combatstory.com/newsletter
Find Ryan Online:
🎙️ Connect with Ryan & Combat Story:
🔗 Ryan’s Linktree: https://linktr.ee/combatstory
🛒 Merch Store: https://www.bonfire.com/store/combatstory/
📸 Instagram: @combatstory https://www.instagram.com/combatstory
📘 Facebook: @combatstoryofficial https://fb.me/combatstoryofficial
📖 Learn more about Ryan: https://www.combatstory.com/aboutus
🎵 Intro Song: Sport Rock from Audio Jungle
Show Notes:
00:00 Introduction
00:22 Lebanon's Political Landscape and Recent Changes
02:22 Hezbollah's Influence and Recent Developments
03:07 Impact of Israeli Actions on Hezbollah
08:40 Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah Relations
10:27 Regional Winners and Losers
14:15 Advice for the New Administration
17:47 Personal Reflections on Lebanon
19:19 Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Agreement
22:10 Focus on Iran and Regional Dyn
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Okay, Glenn, thanks for, uh, thanks forcoming back on here and spending some
time to talk about another volatileand very interesting area of the
world, this time really squarely in theMiddle East, Lebanon, Israel, Hamas.
Great to see you, Ryan.
And, uh, yeah, happy to talkabout this fascinating region
that we call the Levant.
(00:21):
Yeah.
And since we're talking Lebanon,obviously, for people who have not
been following along over the past weekor so, some pretty big movements with
a president appointed, um, obviouslystark changes with Hezbollah in the
region that we'll get into, but just,To provide some context for folks,
(00:43):
you know, this region very well.
I was just wondering if you have anythingthat comes to mind from time that you
have spent in Lebanon before we diginto some of the politics behind it.
Yeah.
Uh, listen, I mean, I say thisabout a lot of places, but the
Lebanese are incredible people.
They're wonderful people.
It's a beautiful country, uh,incredible history, culture, food.
(01:04):
Great wine.
For those of you who are wine drinkersout there, if you're not wine drinkers,
I hope I didn't offend you with that.
But, now, amazing, like, culture.
Actually, good beer calledAlmaza, uh, raft beer.
Um, and so, what I'm going to say,during the interview, I mean, in the
last, uh, month or so, there's beensome really very positive changes, which
(01:26):
I, I am very happy to see, because Ithink the Lebanese people need some good
news after years of, you know, Goingthrough some very, very hard times for
a number of reasons, but much of it,uh, caused by Iran, the Iranian, the
Islamic Republic, and, uh, their proxy,Lebanese Hezbollah, in my assessment.
Some caused by themselves, butI mean, that's any country.
(01:49):
I think you often hear about Lebanonin particular, how vibrant it is,
the way people live, just given howvolatile it can be at any given time.
So I think the first thing we got to kickoff with, they've been without a president
for, Two years they just appoint or elect.
Um, general joseph owned.
Am I saying that correctly?
That's correct.
(02:09):
Perfect.
Right So it's two years two yearswithout for somebody who knows
the the the country in the region.
How does that happen?
How do you go that longwithout a president?
Why is this so important right now?
Right.
So in lebanon, the president is electedby the parliament and that means all
the factions that are in the parliamentincluding Lebanese hezbollah the different
(02:30):
christian You parties, uh, you know,the Sunni parties, they all have to
vote and there has to be a consensus.
And for two plus years,Lebanese Hezbollah was blocking.
They wanted one candidate thatother factions were not willing, or
coalition was not willing to support,and they were kind of blocking
the election, in my assessment.
(02:50):
The, um, Hezbollah, and there'sanother part, Shia party.
So, Hezbollah, the Shia party, andthen there's another one called Amal,
and the Speaker of Parliament is,uh, also the head of that party, Amal
party, and the Biberi, and they wereblocking the election of a president.
In the last month or so, there was alot of movement caused, I, you know,
(03:11):
my own assessment is what the Israelisdid to Lebanese Hezbollah after, uh,
7 October, when Hezbollah made thisstrategic mistake of going to war
or expanding their war with Israel.
resulted in really serious problemsfor Hezbollah, Iran, in the region, in
Lebanon itself, weakened their positionand weakened their ability to continue
(03:33):
to block the election of a president.
And the Lebanese parliamentelected a president.
Uh, he was the former commander ofthe Lebanese armed forces, which
is an institute which has receiveda lot of help and has had a lot of
good, uh, collaboration with the U.
S., including, uh, you know, U.
S.
military.
Um, other parts of the U.
S.
government.
So General Aoun is someonewho's known to the U.
(03:55):
S.
Uh, he has a very good reputation.
Uh, he, by the way, thelaw is written in Lebanon.
He is a maronite Christian,so the commander of the
army has to be a Maronite.
Uh, and then he just, uh, nominatedand secured the, um, the election,
I guess we'd say, of the prime ofa new prime minister who is also
very popular with many people,especially reformists in Lebanon.
(04:19):
He was not a politician in Lebanon.
He was the, uh, Lebanese ambassador tothe UN for a while, and he was also,
he worked in the, uh, international.
Uh, the ICJ, International Court ofJustice, and he was the president
of that body before he returned toLebanon to become the prime minister.
So two very positive notes for,I would say, the legitimate
(04:41):
authorities of Lebanon.
And that, that is Nawaf Salam, right?
So one of the things I found reallyinteresting that you'll know, I'm
sure, as you mentioned kind of thedifferent religions and the splits there.
So not only the, the head of the armedforces, but the president also comes
from the same Christian community.
The PM is from the Sunni communityand the speaker of parliament
(05:06):
is from the Shia community.
Correct.
Correct.
And so when you mentioned that it's thespeaker of the parliament that calls for
the election to have a Shia, which iskind of aligned with Hezbollah to be the
one who had called this election to beginwith, to give the opportunity to have
the president step in, I feel like thatis saying something given Hezbollah's
(05:27):
history there with the Shia party.
Right.
I, you know, I would say that Amal partyand Hezbollah were actually competitors
for influence in the Shia community.
Nabi Bari is not a member of Hezbollah,but he definitely had to consider
Hezbollah's desires, especially inHassan Nasrallah when he was still alive.
And so, um, you know, some people say thatactually Bari is very pleased with what
(05:52):
happened because he wants to increase hisown influence with the Shia community.
And Christine.
Interesting times.
Wow.
Okay.
And so you, you mentionedNasrallah, obviously he's, um,
taken out in late, uh, 2024.
The new leader in Hezbollah is.
Naeem Qasim, I believe, andwe're currently in, uh, there's
(06:16):
a ceasefire in place, right?
So could this have happened, thiselection have happened without the
ceasefire, without, you know, thedegradation to Hezbollah, you think?
No, I don't think so.
I mean, Hezbollah continued their,uh, expanded attacks against Israel
since, I mean, I always say this, they,they were attacking Israel for years.
(06:36):
There was this kind of, uh,low simmering war going on.
across the, you know,northern border of Israel.
But on 7 October, Nasrallah decidedto go in full with Hamas and
expanded the attacks on Israel,and the Israelis responded.
And they, at first, you know, theyfocused on Gaza, as we all know, and
(06:56):
then they turned their attention totheir northern border, southern Lebanon,
and they actually went into southernLebanon, and they did, I mean, I, I
think you have to give the Israeliscredit for a really very, well planned
and executed, uh, campaign, whichresulted in the base, basically the
decapitation of Hezbollah's leadership,military leadership, uh, operational
(07:19):
leadership, and then Hassan Nasrullah.
And, um, obviously most, most peopleremember the Pager operation, then
followed by the radios, you know, thewalkie talkies, I think they caused just
a lot of disruption in Hezbollah's ranks.
And all of this has led toHezbollah being weakened.
(07:39):
And of course they also went afterHezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Quds Force in Syria.
And, you know, we're working todeny them that line of communication
between Iran and Lebanon.
And we saw recently that actuallythe Syrian regime collapsed, and
now the Iranians have lost that,that channel, and hopefully they
(08:00):
will continue not to be able to usethat channel to resupply Hezbollah.
So overall, not a good picture,not a good period for Hezbollah.
They're, they're in big trouble and,uh, the new prime minister and the
new president have made it clearthat they want to extend, I mean,
they want to have a good relationshipwith the Shia community and they're
willing to talk, I think even toHezbollah, but as a political party.
(08:21):
The next step in my assessment isdisarming all of Hezbollah because
Hezbollah was the only militiaafter the Lebanese civil war that
was allowed to keep its weapons.
And they had an arsenal, which wasprobably comparable or maybe even more.
Uh, deadly than the Lebanesearmed forces had the legitimate
military of the country.
What is the relationship between theLebanese armed forces and Hezbollah
(08:44):
from a, from a military perspective?
and weapons standpoint, like how didthey coexist if at all over time?
Uh, it's a great question.
I would say, you know, officially they,they would say that we're both defending,
uh, Lebanon from the threat of Israel.
Unofficially, I think, uh, the, theLebanese armed forces was very hesitant
(09:05):
to do things to cross Hezbollahbecause it's basically a very, a
very dangerous armed militia, whichagain, had weapons that were, not only
in our militia, a terrorist group.
I mean, they terrorized Lebanesepoliticians, they committed assassinations
against many Lebanese officials, theythreatened people, blackmailed people.
(09:26):
So the Lebanese armed forces was unable toassert its control all over the country.
And part of the, part of the ceasefiredemands from the Israeli side was that
the Lebanese Armed Forces and the UnitedNations enforce, uh, Resolution 1701,
which means that they have to controlthe southern border not to allow any
terrorist groups to attack Israel.
(09:48):
That was agreed to in 2006 afterthe, uh, Israeli Lebanese war
then, and the Lebanese Armed Forcesnever carried out that mission.
They were unable to.
Now they probably have theopportunity to do it and they,
they are committed to doing that.
That's what the commander of thearmy, now the president, said.
Uh, and of course, um, you know,my assessment is they're going to
(10:10):
be looking for help from the U.
S., from our European allies to solidifythe gains they've made in, in, um, over
control of overall Lebanese territory.
And hopefully that, thatassistance will, uh, be provided.
What's the regional dynamic now?
Like who are the winners and losersin that region with this, this change?
(10:35):
I think the winners are theLebanese people, number one, right?
I mean, just if you look internally, thisis a good thing for the people of Lebanon
because one of the things, uh, I thinkthe U S and many donors were very hesitant
to provide aid to Lebanon as long asHezbollah had so much influence and they
could continue to hold the government.
You know, they had aacting prime minister.
(10:57):
Many of the positions were not filledin the government or were filled
by, you know, acting, not elected,permanently elected officials.
And so Washington wanted, uh, theBiden administration wanted to see
a legitimate government in place.
And I think the Saudis who have beenbig supporters of Lebanon, especially
the Sunni community, to a lesser extent,the Qataris, maybe the Emiratis, You
(11:21):
know, I just read today the Emiratisare reopening their embassy in Beirut.
Uh, a large shipment of aid justarrived from, from Abu Dhabi.
So you could say that they're winners.
Um, the U.
S.
I, I think is a winner if we takeadvantage of this opportunity,
because we could stabilize the region.
There's so much potential, uh, in notonly in Lebanon, but in the region, right?
(11:47):
Uh, I think probably the Israelisare the winners because they have it.
at least set back a very, veryexistential threat that existed to Israel.
Uh, they've kind of set thatthreat back many years, hopefully.
Significantly.
Significantly.
And hopefully, I mean, in myassessment, the best thing that
we can do is, is finish that off.
So that Hezbollah, the Iranians canno longer use Lebanon as an aircraft
(12:11):
carrier, as a plot storm to attack Israel.
And then by extension, the way you'redescribing that, I mean, Iran has to
come out as, as a loser in this to somedegree with the degradation of Hezbollah.
the axis of resistance across the board.
I have to imagine this is justa, a really tough time for them.
(12:33):
You know, when all of this, uh,when seven October happened, I said
that Israel has to think very, Imean, sorry, Iran has to think very
carefully about using Hezbollah.
It's their best pawn in the region.
And they made the mistake of usinghim and the Israelis, I think caught
them completely off guard with howeffective their operations were.
Uh, apparently the Israelis werecollecting very effective intelligence
(12:56):
on Hezbollah for years, and thenthey used it to support their air
campaign, their, you know, their,their, uh, their ground campaign.
And so, um, and by theway, you got hats off.
I mean, that was probably a, seemslike a great operation on their side.
A lot of discipline.
(13:16):
And, and dedication, but the Israelisdid that because they knew how dangerous
Hezbollah, Hezbollah had a weapons arsenalthat could have caused serious damage.
And there was a lot of speculation,including people here in the United
States, you know, experts who aresaying that the Israelis should
not really expand their war againstHezbollah because Hezbollah would
launch a massive strike on Israel.
Um, and the Israelis kind of ignoredthat advice and they did what they did.
(13:40):
Um, and, uh, Again, I think the Israelisare probably a winner here for now.
Of course, the Israelis can now send theirsettler or they're not their settlers.
But there are citizens back to the north.
I think there are about 70 000israelis 60 70 000 israelis that
were displaced from the north Nowthey can go back to their homes.
That should help the economy thatshould help with other, you know social
(14:02):
issues Uh, because the border shouldbe stabilized now and the threat from
from southern lebanon Significantlyreduced with obviously with the
change in administrations coming up.
How do you see this playing out?
What what would you be recommendingto this new administration coming in?
with Lebanon specifically.
(14:22):
First I would say, I mean, in terms ofthe change of administration, despite
the serious differences in policybetween the outgoing administration
and incoming administration, it seemslike there was a lot of very good
coordination, uh, between them andthe kind of a, um, a unified line.
Of, of effort towards securing apresident for Lebanon, you know, um,
(14:44):
we talked about the Hamas, you know,the ceasefire, but my understanding
is there was a lot of coordinationand that's very good sign, right?
Because the, the incoming administration,if they were going to do things
differently, that could have thrownoff a lot of work that was being
done by the outgoing administration.
Uh, and I think definitely theincoming administration's influence
(15:07):
had a big role in what's happened.
in both Lebanon and withthe ceasefire in Gaza.
And my advice to the new administration,if we just talk about Lebanon,
and I've said this about Syria, weshould be very, very serious and
move very quickly to provide aid.
It has to be very, like,carefully controlled aid.
(15:29):
We don't want it wasted.
We don't want, you know, Americans shouldnot have their taxpayer dollars wasted.
Uh, but There should be verytargeted aid to the Lebanese security
forces to secure the country.
Again, disarm Hezbollah.
You know, there's a lot ofreconstruction that needs to happen.
I think the U.
S., uh, in conjunction with the GCCcountries and the Europeans can do that.
(15:52):
And that would be a good thing because oneof the reasons Hezbollah was so effective
in the past is because the Iranians pumpeda lot of money into social infrastructure,
uh, you know, hospitals, schools, andthey built equity with the Shia community.
And influence with that community.
Somebody has to replace that.
And I hope it can be theWest and we said the West.
Yeah.
(16:13):
Even that split, I guess we should havementioned this Sunni Shia Christian split.
Christians make up lookslike 33 to 40 percent.
Shia 30 to 35 percent.
Sunni 25 to 30 percent.
So obviously incredibly diverseset of, uh, set of people.
Um, you've been ingovernment for 30 years.
(16:36):
Yeah.
Glenn, you've seen incomingand outgoing administrations.
If you, I'm sure you'veseen that work and, and fail
miserably in those handovers.
Why do you think this worked this time?
Is it just the individuals who were onthe incoming and outgoing coordinating?
Like why did it work this time aroundwhen so many times it might not?
(16:59):
Uh, I think because both sidesknew it was good for America.
I mean, this is one of those issueswhere, you know, you can disagree
on a lot of things, but they realizethat, like, peace between Lebanon and
Israel is very important right now.
I think people were probablyshocked by 7 October in the,
in the outgoing administration.
They were caught off guard.
And it caused them serious problems.
(17:21):
And I, you know, if I were any, anypresident, I would, or candidate, I
would understand that this, like thisforeign policy issue has a direct impact
on domestic politics, which we've seenin the last, you know, since 2023.
Uh, so I think probablyboth sides knew that.
And of course there are some good, youknow, professionals on both sides who
want to see, uh, the situation stabilized.
(17:46):
So it's a good sign.
Just before we jump to Israel,Hamas, what's the favorite
place you visited in Lebanon?
You know, it's hard to say favorite place.
I mean, there are a lot of great placesin, in Lebanon and in the mountains,
you know, on the, on the coast.
Uh, and I've been down to the South.
I've been down to the Israeli border.
You know, I was down on theIsraeli border at a place called
(18:08):
Nakura, which was in like kindof Lebanese controlled territory.
And I was with a Shia.
friend of mine, and we were lookingacross the border and, you know,
he said to me, what do you think?
And I said, well, I think it's sad thatwe can't go across that, but my brother
is in Tel Aviv right now teaching.
And so wouldn't it be greatif we could, it's probably
(18:29):
going to be like an hour drive.
And there's so much in common betweenthe Lebanese and the, and the Israelis
from what I've seen in my life andthe visits to both those places.
And I said, it's just a shame that,you know, we, you can't overcome that.
Maybe now there's achance to overcome that.
Because ironically, youknow, the, the Shia.
And the Israelis were kind ofthe minorities that were pushed
(18:50):
around or picked on by others.
And so, you know, historically,the Israelis made some serious
mistakes towards the Shiacommunity in Lebanon, I think.
And it became a big problem for years.
And many Israelis will admit that.
So anyway, I mean, I've seen somany great places in Lebanon.
(19:12):
So many, I don't have a favorite place.
I just, the people were amazing.
And we have many, manygreat Lebanese friends.
Let's let's turn to Israel, Hamas, andthis ceasefire that we're also looking
forward to starting January 19th, 42days, three phased approach phase one
is release of 33 prisoners from Hamasfor a thousand prisoners on the Israeli
(19:35):
side and some Israeli Israeli withdrawalsand then subsequent phases releasing
more prisoners and more withdrawals andsome reconstruction towards the end.
Um, when, as you look at this,How are you thinking regionally
and with the new administration?
Like how do they approach thisnew opportunity in Israel?
(19:57):
So my assessment is that thenew administration played a
big role in making this happen.
You know, the, the president'spresident Trump's, uh, special
advisor for the Middle East.
I think my understanding is he hadsome very direct and blunt talks
with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
(20:18):
I think he probably explained that this isvery important that this ceasefire be put
in place, that we try and stabilize thecrisis there, uh, for a number of reasons.
Um, and, uh, you know, my advice tothe administration is, uh, We have
to be very sensitive to the realitiesthat the Israelis are living with
because many Israelis are not happywith this ceasefire deal because it
(20:38):
allows Hamas to continue to exist.
And, you know, we shouldn't forget thatHamas is the one that started this.
Hamas is the organization thatlaunched those, that massive
terrorist attack on 7 October.
And there are many Israelis that aregoing to be upset because, you know,
Palestinians are being released fromJail, obviously, I think it's like
(21:00):
for one Israeli, 30 Palestinians or 33Palestinians, like that's the equation.
Some people, and there are definitelypeople already in the government
now, in the coalition government,that are very upset about this
and against the ceasefire deal.
I think we should continue to work withPrime Minister Netanyahu and his team to
encourage them to enforce the ceasefire,follow through with the phases, if Hamas
(21:22):
does what it's supposed to do, and weneed to be very, very clear to Hamas,
like, And I think President Trump made thecomment if, if there was not a ceasefire
and the hostages are not released,it's not going to be very good for the
people holding the hostages, right?
And then the last part is I'm sure manypeople are concerned that this just
sends a message that you can kidnappeople and then use them as leverage,
(21:43):
which, you know, we've seen that withother countries where there's a lot of
concern by many people now and in, in,Let's say the national security space
that this trend is, is increasing.
You kidnap someone and then you usethem as trade bait or leverage to get
a political objective taken care of.
So at, at the cost of 40, 000 livesand hundreds of thousands, uh, wounded.
(22:09):
Yes.
I did note that Iran kind of describedthis as a great victory for Hamas.
I assume that's a lot ofpositioning, but how, how do you
read that one from regionally?
Yeah, I mean, I thinkit's a little posturing.
I think that the Iranians.
I mean, if you remember, like, theywere, they were claiming that, uh, you
(22:30):
know, Hezbollah was winning in Lebanon.
I think, um, honestly, I, where weshould be looking now in the, in the
next couple of months is at Iran.
That's one of the countries I think weshould pay a lot of attention to, because
I think the Iranians are very concerned.
Remember the Trump administration won,the, it was the maximum pressure campaign,
and the Iranians have, you know, theIsraelis demonstrated the Iranians,
(22:50):
like, the emperor has no clothes.
They were able to effectively goin and conduct operations in, in.
downtown Tehran, you know, airstrikes, uh, against the Iranians
that were very effective.
And a lot of the, the, the proxies Ithink are probably asking themselves now,
like, uh, who did we get in bed with?
(23:12):
Like, I mean, if I were a member ofHezbollah, I'd be pretty upset because
the Iranians did nothing effective to helpthem once they unleashed them on Israel.
Why is that?
You know, that's a great point.
You've got Hezbollah and Hamas fighting.
Obviously, it's easier asproxies, perhaps, but why did
Iran not get more involved?
(23:33):
I don't think the Iranians, they,you know, they tried some strikes,
but they were not very effective.
I don't think that their arsenal was aseffective as they wanted people to think.
And then I think they also werevery afraid of the response.
Right.
And if I'm, if I'm, if I'm theIranian leader now, I'm very
worried about internal stabilitybecause I don't think that regime
is very popular with the people.
(23:55):
That's my guess.
So, and when you say we need topay a lot of attention to Iran,
how are you thinking that, that theadministration goes about doing that?
I think, you know, like, Theintelligence community is going
to have to keep an eye on it.
You know, our partners, um,there's opportunity again that's
been created in the region.
I've said this before, I think theIsraelis and the Turks have created
(24:17):
some very good opportunities inSyria and Lebanon right now that
should be taken advantage of.
Um, so we have a lot ofpartners we need to work with.
in the region, uh, that, that havebeen very concerned about the Iranians.
I mean, I guess everyone now, thebig issue with Iran is their nuclear
program and making sure that theydon't go all the way with that.
(24:37):
Uh, and I, my understanding is PresidentTrump After he was elected, he said, I'm
ready for a dialogue with the Iranians,which is interesting, and I agree with
that, uh, as long as they don't dothings that are dangerous for the U.
S.
or its, or their allies, includingstopping their funding of terrorist
groups, you know, they're a state sponsorof terror, uh, you know, not supporting
(24:58):
these militias, to use them as proxiesagainst other countries in the region, not
just Israel, but, you know, in Bahrain,in the Gulf, you know, against the Saudis.
Uh, they were very active in Iraq.
So, um, and then, you know, maybe, andthis is something I think with all these
countries, we, we need to think abouthow, like, what's the, what's the carrot?
(25:24):
We know what the stick is, but we needto be thinking, what is the carrot?
Like, how do we incentivize?
people to change their behavior and, uh,not always resort to force or terrorism.
How do we make them?
There's an incentive, includingfor the Iranians, their economy
is in a terrible condition.
(25:44):
Is there some way we can enticethem to do things differently and
then reward them for doing that?
What are the other incentives beyond aid?
You know, you'd mentioned likegetting aid in for Lebanon.
How do you, how do you seesome of those other incentives?
For the Iranians or for?
I think like less isolation, allowingthem back into the, you know, giving
(26:09):
them some options other than havingto deal with Russia and North Korea.
Uh, I don't think anyonewants to be in that club.
So, and, you know, I've known manyIranians in my life, and they're, they're
wonderful people, very, like, again,great culture, great history, and many,
many Iranians are unhappy with the way,what the regime has done to the country,
(26:29):
and they feel that they've been isolated.
The economy is suffering because of theambitions of a small number of people,
which are not serving the, you know,the majority of the Iranian people.
So in, in a couple of weeks, we'll meetagain, you'll be in Turkey, um, and
then on your way for further travels.
(26:53):
But as we, as we break here, just some ofthe other things that are coming to mind.
Obviously we talked Syriabefore a few, few weeks back.
Lots happening there.
We'll talk more Syria as it comes up.
Anything else you'rekeeping an eye on right now?
Obviously with Ukraine anything withTurkey Syria or other places you
think folks should have their eye on?
(27:14):
Well, of course everyone has to havetheir eye on the PRC in Taiwan You
know, i'm i'm not a big expert inthat area But there are plenty of
people that are watching that the twothings i'd say are one We need to be
looking at the western hemisphere more.
I think this administration is showingthat they are very interested In in
(27:35):
that region, mainly because of themigration problems in the southern border.
So part of the solution has to be a littlebit more stability in that region and, and
maybe putting more pressure on the regimesthat are allied with our enemies, like
in Venezuela and Nicaragua, that, thatappear to be encouraging illegal migration
and maybe using, weaponizing it, right?
(27:57):
Which countries do.
So I, we probably need to pay closerattention to the Western Hemisphere.
Uh, and then of course, I think we sawon, um, you know, what the attacks in,
on New Year's in the United States.
Terrorism is not a thing of the past.
Islamic extremism is not a thingof the past, or, you know, any kind
(28:18):
of terrorism is not a thing in thepast, and we've got to continue
to pay a lot of attention to that.
So, um, I, I say the new administrationis, has got a lot on its plate
and is not being handed a, uh, avery stable world to deal with.
I'm hopeful because I think a lot ofpeople around the world are excited
about some change in Washington.
I hope we can take advantage of it.
(28:41):
Perfect.
Glenn, anything else to, toshare before we wrap here?
No, I just want to say thank you again.
It's great to see you.
And, uh, next time I see you,we'll have an, I'm sure there'll be
something exciting to talk about.
Who knows?
Yeah.
We should, we should predictat some point as we do these,
what's going to happen next.
All right.
Thanks so much, Glenn.
Really appreciate it.
(29:01):
We'll talk to you next time.
Thanks, Ryan.
Okay, Glenn, thanks for, uh, thanks forcoming back on here and spending some
time to talk about another volatileand very interesting area of the
world, this time really squarely in theMiddle East, Lebanon, Israel, Hamas.
Great to see you, Ryan.
And, uh, yeah, happy to talkabout this fascinating region
that we call the Levant.
(00:21):
Yeah.
And since we're talking Lebanon,obviously, for people who have not
been following along over the past weekor so, some pretty big movements with
a president appointed, um, obviouslystark changes with Hezbollah in the
region that we'll get into, but just,To provide some context for folks,
(00:43):
you know, this region very well.
I was just wondering if you have anythingthat comes to mind from time that you
have spent in Lebanon before we diginto some of the politics behind it.
Yeah.
Uh, listen, I mean, I say thisabout a lot of places, but the
Lebanese are incredible people.
They're wonderful people.
It's a beautiful country, uh,incredible history, culture, food.
(01:04):
Great wine.
For those of you who are wine drinkersout there, if you're not wine drinkers,
I hope I didn't offend you with that.
But, now, amazing, like, culture.
Actually, good beer calledAlmaza, uh, raft beer.
Um, and so, what I'm going to say,during the interview, I mean, in the
last, uh, month or so, there's beensome really very positive changes, which
(01:26):
I, I am very happy to see, because Ithink the Lebanese people need some good
news after years of, you know, Goingthrough some very, very hard times for
a number of reasons, but much of it,uh, caused by Iran, the Iranian, the
Islamic Republic, and, uh, their proxy,Lebanese Hezbollah, in my assessment.
Some caused by themselves, butI mean, that's any country.
(01:49):
I think you often hear about Lebanonin particular, how vibrant it is,
the way people live, just given howvolatile it can be at any given time.
So I think the first thing we got to kickoff with, they've been without a president
for, Two years they just appoint or elect.
Um, general joseph owned.
Am I saying that correctly?
That's correct.
(02:09):
Perfect.
Right So it's two years two yearswithout for somebody who knows
the the the country in the region.
How does that happen?
How do you go that longwithout a president?
Why is this so important right now?
Right.
So in lebanon, the president is electedby the parliament and that means all
the factions that are in the parliamentincluding Lebanese hezbollah the different
(02:30):
christian You parties, uh, you know,the Sunni parties, they all have to
vote and there has to be a consensus.
And for two plus years,Lebanese Hezbollah was blocking.
They wanted one candidate thatother factions were not willing, or
coalition was not willing to support,and they were kind of blocking
the election, in my assessment.
(02:50):
The, um, Hezbollah, and there'sanother part, Shia party.
So, Hezbollah, the Shia party, andthen there's another one called Amal,
and the Speaker of Parliament is,uh, also the head of that party, Amal
party, and the Biberi, and they wereblocking the election of a president.
In the last month or so, there was alot of movement caused, I, you know,
(03:11):
my own assessment is what the Israelisdid to Lebanese Hezbollah after, uh,
7 October, when Hezbollah made thisstrategic mistake of going to war
or expanding their war with Israel.
resulted in really serious problemsfor Hezbollah, Iran, in the region, in
Lebanon itself, weakened their positionand weakened their ability to continue
(03:33):
to block the election of a president.
And the Lebanese parliamentelected a president.
Uh, he was the former commander ofthe Lebanese armed forces, which
is an institute which has receiveda lot of help and has had a lot of
good, uh, collaboration with the U.
S., including, uh, you know, U.
S.
military.
Um, other parts of the U.
S.
government.
So General Aoun is someonewho's known to the U.
(03:55):
S.
Uh, he has a very good reputation.
Uh, he, by the way, thelaw is written in Lebanon.
He is a maronite Christian,so the commander of the
army has to be a Maronite.
Uh, and then he just, uh, nominatedand secured the, um, the election,
I guess we'd say, of the prime ofa new prime minister who is also
very popular with many people,especially reformists in Lebanon.
(04:19):
He was not a politician in Lebanon.
He was the, uh, Lebanese ambassador tothe UN for a while, and he was also,
he worked in the, uh, international.
Uh, the ICJ, International Court ofJustice, and he was the president
of that body before he returned toLebanon to become the prime minister.
So two very positive notes for,I would say, the legitimate
(04:41):
authorities of Lebanon.
And that, that is Nawaf Salam, right?
So one of the things I found reallyinteresting that you'll know, I'm
sure, as you mentioned kind of thedifferent religions and the splits there.
So not only the, the head of the armedforces, but the president also comes
from the same Christian community.
The PM is from the Sunni communityand the speaker of parliament
(05:06):
is from the Shia community.
Correct.
Correct.
And so when you mentioned that it's thespeaker of the parliament that calls for
the election to have a Shia, which iskind of aligned with Hezbollah to be the
one who had called this election to beginwith, to give the opportunity to have
the president step in, I feel like thatis saying something given Hezbollah's
(05:27):
history there with the Shia party.
Right.
I, you know, I would say that Amal partyand Hezbollah were actually competitors
for influence in the Shia community.
Nabi Bari is not a member of Hezbollah,but he definitely had to consider
Hezbollah's desires, especially inHassan Nasrallah when he was still alive.
And so, um, you know, some people say thatactually Bari is very pleased with what
(05:52):
happened because he wants to increase hisown influence with the Shia community.
And Christine.
Interesting times.
Wow.
Okay.
And so you, you mentionedNasrallah, obviously he's, um,
taken out in late, uh, 2024.
The new leader in Hezbollah is.
Naeem Qasim, I believe, andwe're currently in, uh, there's
(06:16):
a ceasefire in place, right?
So could this have happened, thiselection have happened without the
ceasefire, without, you know, thedegradation to Hezbollah, you think?
No, I don't think so.
I mean, Hezbollah continued their,uh, expanded attacks against Israel
since, I mean, I always say this, they,they were attacking Israel for years.
(06:36):
There was this kind of, uh,low simmering war going on.
across the, you know,northern border of Israel.
But on 7 October, Nasrallah decidedto go in full with Hamas and
expanded the attacks on Israel,and the Israelis responded.
And they, at first, you know, theyfocused on Gaza, as we all know, and
(06:56):
then they turned their attention totheir northern border, southern Lebanon,
and they actually went into southernLebanon, and they did, I mean, I, I
think you have to give the Israeliscredit for a really very, well planned
and executed, uh, campaign, whichresulted in the base, basically the
decapitation of Hezbollah's leadership,military leadership, uh, operational
(07:19):
leadership, and then Hassan Nasrullah.
And, um, obviously most, most peopleremember the Pager operation, then
followed by the radios, you know, thewalkie talkies, I think they caused just
a lot of disruption in Hezbollah's ranks.
And all of this has led toHezbollah being weakened.
(07:39):
And of course they also went afterHezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Quds Force in Syria.
And, you know, we're working todeny them that line of communication
between Iran and Lebanon.
And we saw recently that actuallythe Syrian regime collapsed, and
now the Iranians have lost that,that channel, and hopefully they
(08:00):
will continue not to be able to usethat channel to resupply Hezbollah.
So overall, not a good picture,not a good period for Hezbollah.
They're, they're in big trouble and,uh, the new prime minister and the
new president have made it clearthat they want to extend, I mean,
they want to have a good relationshipwith the Shia community and they're
willing to talk, I think even toHezbollah, but as a political party.
(08:21):
The next step in my assessment isdisarming all of Hezbollah because
Hezbollah was the only militiaafter the Lebanese civil war that
was allowed to keep its weapons.
And they had an arsenal, which wasprobably comparable or maybe even more.
Uh, deadly than the Lebanesearmed forces had the legitimate
military of the country.
What is the relationship between theLebanese armed forces and Hezbollah
(08:44):
from a, from a military perspective?
and weapons standpoint, like how didthey coexist if at all over time?
Uh, it's a great question.
I would say, you know, officially they,they would say that we're both defending,
uh, Lebanon from the threat of Israel.
Unofficially, I think, uh, the, theLebanese armed forces was very hesitant
(09:05):
to do things to cross Hezbollahbecause it's basically a very, a
very dangerous armed militia, whichagain, had weapons that were, not only
in our militia, a terrorist group.
I mean, they terrorized Lebanesepoliticians, they committed assassinations
against many Lebanese officials, theythreatened people, blackmailed people.
(09:26):
So the Lebanese armed forces was unable toassert its control all over the country.
And part of the, part of the ceasefiredemands from the Israeli side was that
the Lebanese Armed Forces and the UnitedNations enforce, uh, Resolution 1701,
which means that they have to controlthe southern border not to allow any
terrorist groups to attack Israel.
(09:48):
That was agreed to in 2006 afterthe, uh, Israeli Lebanese war
then, and the Lebanese Armed Forcesnever carried out that mission.
They were unable to.
Now they probably have theopportunity to do it and they,
they are committed to doing that.
That's what the commander of thearmy, now the president, said.
Uh, and of course, um, you know,my assessment is they're going to
(10:10):
be looking for help from the U.
S., from our European allies to solidifythe gains they've made in, in, um, over
control of overall Lebanese territory.
And hopefully that, thatassistance will, uh, be provided.
What's the regional dynamic now?
Like who are the winners and losersin that region with this, this change?
(10:35):
I think the winners are theLebanese people, number one, right?
I mean, just if you look internally, thisis a good thing for the people of Lebanon
because one of the things, uh, I thinkthe U S and many donors were very hesitant
to provide aid to Lebanon as long asHezbollah had so much influence and they
could continue to hold the government.
You know, they had aacting prime minister.
(10:57):
Many of the positions were not filledin the government or were filled
by, you know, acting, not elected,permanently elected officials.
And so Washington wanted, uh, theBiden administration wanted to see
a legitimate government in place.
And I think the Saudis who have beenbig supporters of Lebanon, especially
the Sunni community, to a lesser extent,the Qataris, maybe the Emiratis, You
(11:21):
know, I just read today the Emiratisare reopening their embassy in Beirut.
Uh, a large shipment of aid justarrived from, from Abu Dhabi.
So you could say that they're winners.
Um, the U.
S.
I, I think is a winner if we takeadvantage of this opportunity,
because we could stabilize the region.
There's so much potential, uh, in notonly in Lebanon, but in the region, right?
(11:47):
Uh, I think probably the Israelisare the winners because they have it.
at least set back a very, veryexistential threat that existed to Israel.
Uh, they've kind of set thatthreat back many years, hopefully.
Significantly.
Significantly.
And hopefully, I mean, in myassessment, the best thing that
we can do is, is finish that off.
So that Hezbollah, the Iranians canno longer use Lebanon as an aircraft
(12:11):
carrier, as a plot storm to attack Israel.
And then by extension, the way you'redescribing that, I mean, Iran has to
come out as, as a loser in this to somedegree with the degradation of Hezbollah.
the axis of resistance across the board.
I have to imagine this is justa, a really tough time for them.
(12:33):
You know, when all of this, uh,when seven October happened, I said
that Israel has to think very, Imean, sorry, Iran has to think very
carefully about using Hezbollah.
It's their best pawn in the region.
And they made the mistake of usinghim and the Israelis, I think caught
them completely off guard with howeffective their operations were.
Uh, apparently the Israelis werecollecting very effective intelligence
(12:56):
on Hezbollah for years, and thenthey used it to support their air
campaign, their, you know, their,their, uh, their ground campaign.
And so, um, and by theway, you got hats off.
I mean, that was probably a, seemslike a great operation on their side.
A lot of discipline.
(13:16):
And, and dedication, but the Israelisdid that because they knew how dangerous
Hezbollah, Hezbollah had a weapons arsenalthat could have caused serious damage.
And there was a lot of speculation,including people here in the United
States, you know, experts who aresaying that the Israelis should
not really expand their war againstHezbollah because Hezbollah would
launch a massive strike on Israel.
Um, and the Israelis kind of ignoredthat advice and they did what they did.
(13:40):
Um, and, uh, Again, I think the Israelisare probably a winner here for now.
Of course, the Israelis can now send theirsettler or they're not their settlers.
But there are citizens back to the north.
I think there are about 70 000israelis 60 70 000 israelis that
were displaced from the north Nowthey can go back to their homes.
That should help the economy thatshould help with other, you know social
(14:02):
issues Uh, because the border shouldbe stabilized now and the threat from
from southern lebanon Significantlyreduced with obviously with the
change in administrations coming up.
How do you see this playing out?
What what would you be recommendingto this new administration coming in?
with Lebanon specifically.
(14:22):
First I would say, I mean, in terms ofthe change of administration, despite
the serious differences in policybetween the outgoing administration
and incoming administration, it seemslike there was a lot of very good
coordination, uh, between them andthe kind of a, um, a unified line.
Of, of effort towards securing apresident for Lebanon, you know, um,
(14:44):
we talked about the Hamas, you know,the ceasefire, but my understanding
is there was a lot of coordinationand that's very good sign, right?
Because the, the incoming administration,if they were going to do things
differently, that could have thrownoff a lot of work that was being
done by the outgoing administration.
Uh, and I think definitely theincoming administration's influence
(15:07):
had a big role in what's happened.
in both Lebanon and withthe ceasefire in Gaza.
And my advice to the new administration,if we just talk about Lebanon,
and I've said this about Syria, weshould be very, very serious and
move very quickly to provide aid.
It has to be very, like,carefully controlled aid.
(15:29):
We don't want it wasted.
We don't want, you know, Americans shouldnot have their taxpayer dollars wasted.
Uh, but There should be verytargeted aid to the Lebanese security
forces to secure the country.
Again, disarm Hezbollah.
You know, there's a lot ofreconstruction that needs to happen.
I think the U.
S., uh, in conjunction with the GCCcountries and the Europeans can do that.
(15:52):
And that would be a good thing because oneof the reasons Hezbollah was so effective
in the past is because the Iranians pumpeda lot of money into social infrastructure,
uh, you know, hospitals, schools, andthey built equity with the Shia community.
And influence with that community.
Somebody has to replace that.
And I hope it can be theWest and we said the West.
Yeah.
(16:13):
Even that split, I guess we should havementioned this Sunni Shia Christian split.
Christians make up lookslike 33 to 40 percent.
Shia 30 to 35 percent.
Sunni 25 to 30 percent.
So obviously incredibly diverseset of, uh, set of people.
Um, you've been ingovernment for 30 years.
(16:36):
Yeah.
Glenn, you've seen incomingand outgoing administrations.
If you, I'm sure you'veseen that work and, and fail
miserably in those handovers.
Why do you think this worked this time?
Is it just the individuals who were onthe incoming and outgoing coordinating?
Like why did it work this time aroundwhen so many times it might not?
(16:59):
Uh, I think because both sidesknew it was good for America.
I mean, this is one of those issueswhere, you know, you can disagree
on a lot of things, but they realizethat, like, peace between Lebanon and
Israel is very important right now.
I think people were probablyshocked by 7 October in the,
in the outgoing administration.
They were caught off guard.
And it caused them serious problems.
(17:21):
And I, you know, if I were any, anypresident, I would, or candidate, I
would understand that this, like thisforeign policy issue has a direct impact
on domestic politics, which we've seenin the last, you know, since 2023.
Uh, so I think probablyboth sides knew that.
And of course there are some good, youknow, professionals on both sides who
want to see, uh, the situation stabilized.
(17:46):
So it's a good sign.
Just before we jump to Israel,Hamas, what's the favorite
place you visited in Lebanon?
You know, it's hard to say favorite place.
I mean, there are a lot of great placesin, in Lebanon and in the mountains,
you know, on the, on the coast.
Uh, and I've been down to the South.
I've been down to the Israeli border.
You know, I was down on theIsraeli border at a place called
(18:08):
Nakura, which was in like kindof Lebanese controlled territory.
And I was with a Shia.
friend of mine, and we were lookingacross the border and, you know,
he said to me, what do you think?
And I said, well, I think it's sad thatwe can't go across that, but my brother
is in Tel Aviv right now teaching.
And so wouldn't it be greatif we could, it's probably
(18:29):
going to be like an hour drive.
And there's so much in common betweenthe Lebanese and the, and the Israelis
from what I've seen in my life andthe visits to both those places.
And I said, it's just a shame that,you know, we, you can't overcome that.
Maybe now there's achance to overcome that.
Because ironically, youknow, the, the Shia.
And the Israelis were kind ofthe minorities that were pushed
(18:50):
around or picked on by others.
And so, you know, historically,the Israelis made some serious
mistakes towards the Shiacommunity in Lebanon, I think.
And it became a big problem for years.
And many Israelis will admit that.
So anyway, I mean, I've seen somany great places in Lebanon.
(19:12):
So many, I don't have a favorite place.
I just, the people were amazing.
And we have many, manygreat Lebanese friends.
Let's let's turn to Israel, Hamas, andthis ceasefire that we're also looking
forward to starting January 19th, 42days, three phased approach phase one
is release of 33 prisoners from Hamasfor a thousand prisoners on the Israeli
(19:35):
side and some Israeli Israeli withdrawalsand then subsequent phases releasing
more prisoners and more withdrawals andsome reconstruction towards the end.
Um, when, as you look at this,How are you thinking regionally
and with the new administration?
Like how do they approach thisnew opportunity in Israel?
(19:57):
So my assessment is that thenew administration played a
big role in making this happen.
You know, the, the president'spresident Trump's, uh, special
advisor for the Middle East.
I think my understanding is he hadsome very direct and blunt talks
with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
(20:18):
I think he probably explained that this isvery important that this ceasefire be put
in place, that we try and stabilize thecrisis there, uh, for a number of reasons.
Um, and, uh, you know, my advice tothe administration is, uh, We have
to be very sensitive to the realitiesthat the Israelis are living with
because many Israelis are not happywith this ceasefire deal because it
(20:38):
allows Hamas to continue to exist.
And, you know, we shouldn't forget thatHamas is the one that started this.
Hamas is the organization thatlaunched those, that massive
terrorist attack on 7 October.
And there are many Israelis that aregoing to be upset because, you know,
Palestinians are being released fromJail, obviously, I think it's like
(21:00):
for one Israeli, 30 Palestinians or 33Palestinians, like that's the equation.
Some people, and there are definitelypeople already in the government
now, in the coalition government,that are very upset about this
and against the ceasefire deal.
I think we should continue to work withPrime Minister Netanyahu and his team to
encourage them to enforce the ceasefire,follow through with the phases, if Hamas
(21:22):
does what it's supposed to do, and weneed to be very, very clear to Hamas,
like, And I think President Trump made thecomment if, if there was not a ceasefire
and the hostages are not released,it's not going to be very good for the
people holding the hostages, right?
And then the last part is I'm sure manypeople are concerned that this just
sends a message that you can kidnappeople and then use them as leverage,
(21:43):
which, you know, we've seen that withother countries where there's a lot of
concern by many people now and in, in,Let's say the national security space
that this trend is, is increasing.
You kidnap someone and then you usethem as trade bait or leverage to get
a political objective taken care of.
So at, at the cost of 40, 000 livesand hundreds of thousands, uh, wounded.
(22:09):
Yes.
I did note that Iran kind of describedthis as a great victory for Hamas.
I assume that's a lot ofpositioning, but how, how do you
read that one from regionally?
Yeah, I mean, I thinkit's a little posturing.
I think that the Iranians.
I mean, if you remember, like, theywere, they were claiming that, uh, you
(22:30):
know, Hezbollah was winning in Lebanon.
I think, um, honestly, I, where weshould be looking now in the, in the
next couple of months is at Iran.
That's one of the countries I think weshould pay a lot of attention to, because
I think the Iranians are very concerned.
Remember the Trump administration won,the, it was the maximum pressure campaign,
and the Iranians have, you know, theIsraelis demonstrated the Iranians,
(22:50):
like, the emperor has no clothes.
They were able to effectively goin and conduct operations in, in.
downtown Tehran, you know, airstrikes, uh, against the Iranians
that were very effective.
And a lot of the, the, the proxies Ithink are probably asking themselves now,
like, uh, who did we get in bed with?
(23:12):
Like, I mean, if I were a member ofHezbollah, I'd be pretty upset because
the Iranians did nothing effective to helpthem once they unleashed them on Israel.
Why is that?
You know, that's a great point.
You've got Hezbollah and Hamas fighting.
Obviously, it's easier asproxies, perhaps, but why did
Iran not get more involved?
(23:33):
I don't think the Iranians, they,you know, they tried some strikes,
but they were not very effective.
I don't think that their arsenal was aseffective as they wanted people to think.
And then I think they also werevery afraid of the response.
Right.
And if I'm, if I'm, if I'm theIranian leader now, I'm very
worried about internal stabilitybecause I don't think that regime
is very popular with the people.
(23:55):
That's my guess.
So, and when you say we need topay a lot of attention to Iran,
how are you thinking that, that theadministration goes about doing that?
I think, you know, like, Theintelligence community is going
to have to keep an eye on it.
You know, our partners, um,there's opportunity again that's
been created in the region.
I've said this before, I think theIsraelis and the Turks have created
(24:17):
some very good opportunities inSyria and Lebanon right now that
should be taken advantage of.
Um, so we have a lot ofpartners we need to work with.
in the region, uh, that, that havebeen very concerned about the Iranians.
I mean, I guess everyone now, thebig issue with Iran is their nuclear
program and making sure that theydon't go all the way with that.
(24:37):
Uh, and I, my understanding is PresidentTrump After he was elected, he said, I'm
ready for a dialogue with the Iranians,which is interesting, and I agree with
that, uh, as long as they don't dothings that are dangerous for the U.
S.
or its, or their allies, includingstopping their funding of terrorist
groups, you know, they're a state sponsorof terror, uh, you know, not supporting
(24:58):
these militias, to use them as proxiesagainst other countries in the region, not
just Israel, but, you know, in Bahrain,in the Gulf, you know, against the Saudis.
Uh, they were very active in Iraq.
So, um, and then, you know, maybe, andthis is something I think with all these
countries, we, we need to think abouthow, like, what's the, what's the carrot?
(25:24):
We know what the stick is, but we needto be thinking, what is the carrot?
Like, how do we incentivize?
people to change their behavior and, uh,not always resort to force or terrorism.
How do we make them?
There's an incentive, includingfor the Iranians, their economy
is in a terrible condition.
(25:44):
Is there some way we can enticethem to do things differently and
then reward them for doing that?
What are the other incentives beyond aid?
You know, you'd mentioned likegetting aid in for Lebanon.
How do you, how do you seesome of those other incentives?
For the Iranians or for?
I think like less isolation, allowingthem back into the, you know, giving
(26:09):
them some options other than havingto deal with Russia and North Korea.
Uh, I don't think anyonewants to be in that club.
So, and, you know, I've known manyIranians in my life, and they're, they're
wonderful people, very, like, again,great culture, great history, and many,
many Iranians are unhappy with the way,what the regime has done to the country,
(26:29):
and they feel that they've been isolated.
The economy is suffering because of theambitions of a small number of people,
which are not serving the, you know,the majority of the Iranian people.
So in, in a couple of weeks, we'll meetagain, you'll be in Turkey, um, and
then on your way for further travels.
(26:53):
But as we, as we break here, just some ofthe other things that are coming to mind.
Obviously we talked Syriabefore a few, few weeks back.
Lots happening there.
We'll talk more Syria as it comes up.
Anything else you'rekeeping an eye on right now?
Obviously with Ukraine anything withTurkey Syria or other places you
think folks should have their eye on?
(27:14):
Well, of course everyone has to havetheir eye on the PRC in Taiwan You
know, i'm i'm not a big expert inthat area But there are plenty of
people that are watching that the twothings i'd say are one We need to be
looking at the western hemisphere more.
I think this administration is showingthat they are very interested In in
(27:35):
that region, mainly because of themigration problems in the southern border.
So part of the solution has to be a littlebit more stability in that region and, and
maybe putting more pressure on the regimesthat are allied with our enemies, like
in Venezuela and Nicaragua, that, thatappear to be encouraging illegal migration
and maybe using, weaponizing it, right?
(27:57):
Which countries do.
So I, we probably need to pay closerattention to the Western Hemisphere.
Uh, and then of course, I think we sawon, um, you know, what the attacks in,
on New Year's in the United States.
Terrorism is not a thing of the past.
Islamic extremism is not a thingof the past, or, you know, any kind
(28:18):
of terrorism is not a thing in thepast, and we've got to continue
to pay a lot of attention to that.
So, um, I, I say the new administrationis, has got a lot on its plate
and is not being handed a, uh, avery stable world to deal with.
I'm hopeful because I think a lot ofpeople around the world are excited
about some change in Washington.
I hope we can take advantage of it.
(28:41):
Perfect.
Glenn, anything else to, toshare before we wrap here?
No, I just want to say thank you again.
It's great to see you.
And, uh, next time I see you,we'll have an, I'm sure there'll be
something exciting to talk about.
Who knows?
Yeah.
We should, we should predictat some point as we do these,
what's going to happen next.
All right.
Thanks so much, Glenn.
Really appreciate it.
(29:01):
We'll talk to you next time.
Thanks, Ryan.
Popular Podcasts
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Therapy Gecko
An unlicensed lizard psychologist travels the universe talking to strangers about absolutely nothing. TO CALL THE GECKO: follow me on https://www.twitch.tv/lyleforever to get a notification for when I am taking calls. I am usually live Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays but lately a lot of other times too. I am a gecko.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.