October 15, 2024 • 21 mins
DAN PROFT COUNTERCULTURE PODCAST: Watch the latest interview with Robert Cahaly discuss the November election.
EP. 58: Robert Cahaly, founder of the Trafalgar Group, a polling firm. Cahaly, you'll recall, was the most accurate pollster of the 2016 cycle correcting identifying Trump as leading Hillary Clinton in key swing states going into that election.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
CAHALY (00:03):
Yesterday, Tommy, talk about kind of tone death yesterday, she comes out with this
indigenous people's day and talking about howawful the people who came over to America were
and, and they brought disease and they killedpeople and all this kind of stuff. It's like
saying, and you know, anti Columbus Day message,Trump gives a pro Columbus day. We're not gonna
(00:24):
change it. I mean, even if you think that you'retrying to win a presidential election and you're
offending a lot of Italians, I mean CatholicItalians, I mean, it's just because this is
something that they take very seriously.
PROFT (00:46):
Welcome to another episode of Counterculture, the show that stands at the
intersection of reason and faith in the battleagainst sentimentality. For a moment, let's set
aside the head-to-head numbers between Trump andKamala, even in battleground states. And look at
some of the underlying cross tabs. Trump ispoised to do better among black voters than any
GOP presidential candidate since Nixon in 60,better among Latino voters than any GOP or since
(01:09):
George W. Bush in 2004. He's up five points withCatholics who comprised 30% of the electorate in
Pennsylvania. Biden won Catholics in 2020, bythe way, and Kamala is running 18 points behind
Biden's number among Arab Americans. Combinethat with Trump increasing his spread among the
non-college degree, and one has to ask thesimple question, how is it even possible that
(01:31):
this race doesn't end in an electoral landslidefor Trump? And if it is, are we looking at more
sizable majorities for the GOP in the House andSenate as well to help us decipher the polling
data and offer some prognostications? We hopewe're pleased to be joined by Robert Kaha,
founder of the Trafalgar Group Polling firm.Kaha, you'll recall, was the most accurate
pollster of the 2016 cycle correctly identifyingTrump as leading Hillary Clinton in key swing
(01:56):
states going into that, into that election. Infact, Trafalgar has been the most accurate
pollster of the last two presidential elections.Kaha is not one of those wishful thinking
pollsters normally associated with corporatemedia outlets, which is why we're pleased to
have him on this installment of counterculture.Robert Kaha, welcome. Thank you for joining us.
CAHALY (02:16):
Hey, it's great to be here. And there's, I tell you what you, you started out just right
with looking at those cross tabs and, and howthe, this, this race is so different than anyone
could have possibly predicted.
PROFT (02:31):
Well, right. And so, so I mean, a address that, I mean the, the numbers with black and
Latino voters, bill McGurn had a good comment inthe Wall Street Journal about communist problem
with Catholic voters, which is a problem inPennsylvania. And if she doesn't win
Pennsylvania, there's no path it would seem, andeven Arab Americans polling out this week with
Arab Americans Trump running neck and neck withKamala, that obviously is a problem for her in
(02:54):
Michigan. So, I mean, how, what's the path forKamala? Is there one,
CAHALY (02:59):
You're exactly right. I mean, you, you know, you, you just look at this, I mean,
yesterday, Tommy talk about kind of tone deathyesterday, she comes out with this indigenous
people's day and talking about how awful thepeople who came over to America were and, and
they brought disease and they kill people andall this kind of stuff. It's like saying, and
(03:20):
you know, anti Columbus Day message, Trump givesa pro Columbus day. We're not gonna change it. I
mean, even if you think that you're trying towin a presidential election and you're offending
a lot of Italians, I mean Catholic Italians, Imean, it's just because this is something that
they take very seriously and it, it's just dumb.I I don't understand why you would do something
(03:46):
like that right now. I mean, I, I get that youfeel that way and it, but it's like she's done
such a good job of messaging that the campaignhas done to make her look interest, to make her
like somebody who's worried about the middleclass and the plight of average Americans. It's
like she just took a, a misstep and you, it islike she revealed a little bit of what you kind
(04:13):
of knew she was. And that's what we've beengetting a lot from voters is they're saying, I
like what she says, but I don't believe what shesays is what she really thinks.
PROFT (04:26):
Right. And it was sort of a moment where it's clear that she's tethered to and trying to
sell the classes where Trump is selling themasses. And oh, by the way, the masses are
bigger than the classes in terms of theelectorate.
CAHALY (04:43):
Exactly. Right. I mean, you know, Trump has certainly has had his problem with kind of
suburban college educated folks and a littlemore trouble with seniors than Republicans tend
to have. But you know, people ask me about that.I always say, Hey, first of all, you've gotta
think about the seniors that existed in 2016 andthe seniors that exist in 2024. That's eight
(05:09):
years. That is a lot of greatest generation andsilent generation. People dying. And a lot of
baby boomers are basically, all of them now havemoved into being seniors. So that is a logical
turn a little bit to the left because of theideological makeup of both those different
(05:29):
groups was very different.
PROFT (05:31):
So I mean, so is that, is that her path? I mean, she needs to get, you know, massive,
massive turnout from suburban enclaves aroundbig cities in addition to the big cities in the,
in the battleground states plus do surprisinglywell among seniors and, and she could somehow
cobble together a winning coalition.
CAHALY (05:52):
Right. What she would, what she would need to do to to to just be safe is to have all
the people that are in small towns, ruralcommunities and you know, just the smaller
suburban areas, have all of them not show up andjust except for their old people and just to
(06:14):
have seniors and urbanites and largersuburbanites all vote that are all above a
hundred thousand dollars a year income. If shedid that, she'd have a big win.
PROFT (06:28):
But I mean, what's the likelihood of that? Where, where, where's the possible, right.
Where and where does the enthusiasm, where doesthe enthusiasm stand right now, Trump voters
versus Kamala voters?
CAHALY (06:38):
It's interesting. When Kamala first got in the race, we saw Democrat enthusiasm tee
tweak up just a hair above Republicanenthusiasm. But now it has settled back down and
there's still a Republican gap Republicans aheadby about eight to 10 points in most of these
states. And that's significant. I mean, you haveBarack Obama, I mean all but lecturing black
(07:02):
males for not voting for Kamala. I mean, thatwas surreal. And then Bill Clinton getting the
dates mixed up and basically talking about Lakeand Riley's case as if it had to do with the
bill that Trump kept from passing
PROFT (07:18):
Right. While also saying, you know, we need to vet people coming into this country.
Yeah, I know that's, that's sort of what Trumphas been saying. It's, it's been interesting the
last couple of weeks, Biden running cover forDeSantis against Kamala and then Clinton
supposed to be in Georgia campaigning for KamalaHarris talking about Lake and Riley and vetting
immigrants. That's not exactly,
CAHALY (07:38):
And, and that Obama not really helping.
PROFT (07:41):
Yeah, right. Well, but I mean the, the Obama thing, I, I wonder too, and maybe this
shows up in polling, I mean, the idea, idea thatObama didn't have coattails when he was
president at the height of his popularity, youknow, down ballot Democrats got wiped out during
Obama. He was personally popular, but it didn'ttranslate. And does it translate any more 12
years later? I don't think so.
CAHALY (08:02):
Well, you know exactly right. I mean, we, we see them take a lot of credit for, I
mean, for 2020 when there was a few states Obamacampaigned in, but the fact is that was a much
closer race than anyone other than usanticipated it would be. And you know, but for
(08:23):
just a few votes in a few different places goesthe other way. And I mean, certainly there were
lots of problems and what I call shenanigansgoing on that year. And then in 2022, I, yeah,
there's a lot of places Obama campaign that won,but that, that turned out based on what the
Democrats were doing, built their machine inthis races in the States where they, they had us
(08:47):
Senate seats and plus the abortion turnout. LikeI don't think Obama can really take credit for
making a difference anywhere.
PROFT (08:55):
Yeah. And you know, I mean, where is Biden right now in terms of his standing?
Because it almost seems to me that despite hisdebate performances or the lack of ability to
perform in a debate, I mean, he still has aconnection to working people. You know, the
whole Scranton Joe thing, he built up over fouror five decades,
CAHALY (09:17):
No question.
PROFT (09:18):
Where, where, where she doesn't, and, and I mean this,
CAHALY (09:20):
And and that's what I said from the very beginning. Yeah, yeah. I said, this lady will
not be as competitive in Pennsylvania andMichigan as Biden would've been, but she would
be more competitive in Georgia and NorthCarolina and, and the other Sunbelt. And that's
exactly what we've seen. Because she cannot getthose blue collar workers to look at her and her
(09:46):
record and say, this is somebody who cares aboutme. But on the other hand, you know, we have a
significant African American cop population herein Georgia, a significant one in North Carolina,
and there is some enthusiasm for her that justdidn't exist for Biden and the young people a
little more enthusiastic than they were. So, youknow, it was a trade off. But you're right, the,
(10:10):
the coalition that Joe put together, and let'sremember in 2020, Joe was seen as a, as his
whole entire congressional record had beenmoderate Democrat who was the moderate, who came
out of the Democrat primary of a bunch ofliberals. And he was seen as the moderate. And
so that went into people's calculus. Theythought, well he won't be much different than
(10:34):
Trump. It'll just be a little less drama. He'snot a big lefty. That is what they thought. And
they have a lot of buyer's remorse for thinkingthat because he did not end up governing the way
old Joe that everyone had known for 40 years,used to vote. He, he was completely different
person.
PROFT (10:53):
But with, with black voters, I mean this could be another hoist by your own patar kind of
situation. Because on the one hand you say, wellyes, she's got more enthusiasm among black
voters, but, and so they may not have turned outfor Biden, but black voters may turn out at
higher rates, but she's not gonna get thepercentage that she needs. I mean, you know her,
(11:14):
she is trailing off significantly from even whatBiden Right.
CAHALY (11:17):
But, but she is doing better than where Biden was. She is doing better than where Biden
was in 2020. And so that's what I meant by that.No, there's
PROFT (11:27):
No question. No, I understand. Yeah, but I mean, but I mean, compare it to the model
that's required to win, though. I'm not sayingBiden was gonna
CAHALY (11:33):
Win either. Absolutely. No, yeah, absolutely. Well, yeah, we can all concede that
Biden probably wasn't going to win and it wasprobably gonna be a much larger election, victor
for Trump then this could be if he wins at all.But absolutely, I mean this, that we, it's a
significant amount and it's, the other thing isin 2016, even 2020, we do a lot of work to kind
(11:57):
of identify these hidden voters. And a lot ofthose were black males. And now they just tell
it. I mean, it's like they are not gonna beshamed about it. And they were literally one of
the biggest groups we felt, we felt like we'rehidden Trump voters. And, and I would still tell
you to this day, no matter what the exit pollsaid, again, if you won't tell a pollster the
(12:20):
truth on the phone, the odds of you telling somekid with a clipboard at your polling place, the
truth are very good. So relying on exit polls iseven worse pseudoscience than the polls that got
the election so wrong.
PROFT (12:39):
Do you see any states that we're not talking about now, not significantly being
surprisingly close or maybe even going adifferent direction than they're assumed to go?
I mean, you saw the Department of Justice justsue the state of Virginia over removing
non-voters from their voting roles. It's kindasort of interesting. Why would you pick out
Virginia? Virginia is not perceived to be inplay for Trump at Minnesota. You know, here we
(13:03):
go again, it's a little bit of fool's gold, Ithink. But get your opinion. Minnesota is some
polling, has it within four or five points a anyof these? Yeah. Do you think the map expands
beyond the half a dozen states we're talkingabout at all?
CAHALY (13:15):
I mean, here's the thing. We have seen a significant undercurrent of Trump voters that
are hesitant to say they're for Trump. And in2016 it was being shamed mostly with live
callers. People didn't want to say to a livecaller, they were for Trump. 'cause they did not
wanna be judged by that person they're talkingto by 2024. It's a different thing. There's a
(13:40):
perception among many Trump voters that theJustice Department has been weaponized against
them. They don't know what's gonna happen. Andyou know, when you kind of, the way when you
talk to, you know, strong Second Amendmentdefenders, they're always opposed to gun
registration because they know that that will bethe list they use to go collect the guns. People
(14:02):
feel that way about polls. I mean, they'realways asking, all right, what are you doing
with this information? Who are you, well what'sthis about?
You know, who's gonna have access to this? Isthis gonna be something big tech can get? And
it, they're very nervous. And so what we'refinding is people who, you know, hear stories of
people who use an ATM in Washington on January6th, even though they weren't anywhere near the
(14:26):
capitol, you know, being investigated. I meanthey, they just, there's too much of this. And
so, well, there's an undercurrent and, and and Itell you all this too, and you answer your
question about the states that if theundercurrent is what we think it could be, yes.
I think that you could possibly see Virginia inplay. I mean, I think New York could actually be
(14:47):
in play. Wow. I mean, look, it was five pointson the governor's race last time. Five Points.
We were the only people who ever said that racewas closed. Everybody said it was 10 or 12 point
race and it ended up being a five point race.
And there is a lot of buyer remorse for votingfor ho. And so, I mean, you look at the
reaction, the guys getting knee, he's not makinga mistake to go do this because people have just
(15:14):
had it. And so I think it wouldn't Minnesota,I'm just, I'm just not, not sure I'm buying it.
I I just, I remember from looking at a littlekid, that was the only thing purple for Walter
Mondale right? Back in the day, or only thingred. 'cause back then the Democrats were red,
the Republicans were blue. But I, I just, I'llnever get that out of my head that that was the
(15:38):
only state that went the other way. But I, Ithink looking on the edges for Colorado, maybe
in New Mexico, but certainly I, I would putVirginia and I put North Carolina in there and
(15:58):
it, it, it is just
PROFT (16:00):
North Carolina the other way.
CAHALY (16:02):
CCBI didn't mean North Carolina. I I meant New York. Oh, New York, yeah, Virginia and
New York. I mean, I just wouldn't rule out NewYork and I wouldn't rule out New Hampshire
either.
PROFT (16:11):
Wow. That's interesting. So, so I mean, based on what you said though, the reticence and
the suspicion, which is understandable to talkto pollsters. So, you know, the obvious
question, 'cause a lot of people say, I don'ttrust any of the polls. I don't believe them.
What, why should, why should people trust thepolls? Why should they believe them?
CAHALY (16:28):
Well, they shouldn't believe most of them. I mean, that, that's the whole point is
these guys have been off significantly andpresident's races two times in a row. I mean,
you know, if our era and we were the number onelowest error rate in 2020 of people who polled
more than 10 states, then there were a few whopolled just like few, you know, they didn't
(16:51):
matter. But of the people who did real, youknow, large amount of states and hit all the
battlegrounds on of the edges, we were like 2.4error rate. Now that is ridiculously low
compared to, you know, the A BCN BBC five. Theywere all like five. I mean, that's a huge swing
(17:15):
of an error rate. And the fact is they do notknow how to count these, what we call Trump
surge voters or hidden Trump voters, shy Trumpvoters scared Trump voters, whatever you wanna
call it, reticent Trump voters.
They don't know how to count them. And I do notbelieve they have changed it. They can tell you
(17:35):
they've changed their model, but the first thingthat you know, they haven't is when you look at
their questionnaires, the 30 questions, thefirst thing I'll tell people, when you're asking
30 questions, you are losing average people.They will not take a poll that long. You are
going to over sample the people who are educatedmore free time and who care more about politics.
(18:01):
And you're gonna lose some people who are in abusy life trying to take care of family work and
everything else. You just lose 'em. They're notgonna take those long polls. So, so, and god
forbid they use focus groups, I mean not focusgroups, they use online panels, which are kind
of like big focus groups of PE and you know,online panel.
Like think about how weird you have to be tosay, I'd like to be on online power to take a
(18:26):
political ball once a week. How not averagevoter is that? Right. So that's why I don't
have, I don't have any real belief they havedone anything better. And we see, you know,
we've been measuring how we look at the hiddenvote with some of the, some of our, our unique
tactics to do that. And then one that we'vetalked about, you know, asking the, you know,
(18:48):
who do you think your neighbors are gonna votefor? It's a great projection device. We kind of
brought that on the scene in 2016, not that wecreated it, I learned it from a guy named Rod
Sheeley back in the nineties, but in SouthCarolina. But it, it's one of those things that
we even just look at the neighbor question wesee.
So our biggest state was Ohio in 2016. Andpeople, we were saying, he's not just gonna win
(19:14):
Ohio, he's gonna win it big. And people werelike, you're crazy. Well, of course he did just
win it big. We're seeing a very strong hiddenvote in Pennsylvania, a very, and the biggest
one in Nevada. And I get it with all the unionpressure, but you know, we see a, a big one in
Arizona and a a, a big one in Michigan, Georgia,and Wisconsin and North Carolina. Not as much,
(19:40):
but it's interesting. And if, if those even athird of those people break toward Trump, those
states won't be close.
PROFT (19:47):
Oh, that's really interesting. And so last question we'll let you go. Victor Davis
Hansen recently reminded us that it was veryclose between Carter and and Reagan in 1980.
Gallup had Carter up a couple of points goinginto the last few days of the election, and then
of course Reagan won 40 states. Do you see thepossibility of something like that, maybe not 40
(20:10):
states, but something like that, that surge thatyou're talking about? Yes, a
CAHALY (20:13):
Absolutely. I mean, if, if he does even a third of what we think is hidden vote right
now you're talking, you were talking about thepotential of a, of a popular vote win. You're
talking about potential of over 320 electoralvotes and not worried about the house
(20:36):
representatives sweeping a lot of men and thepossibility of sweeping in as many as six Senate
seats.
PROFT (20:45):
Wow. All right. Robert Kaha, founder of Trafalgar Group polling firm, of course as we
were talking, Robert, thanks so much for joiningus. Appreciate your insights. Insights is gonna
be an exciting last three weeks. Appreciate it.
CAHALY (20:56):
It is literally gonna be one for the races and I, I'm, I'm looking forward to it, but
I, I can gotta tell you people saying, what areyou gonna do when it's over? I said, well, when,
when is it gonna be over?
PROFT (21:08):
I don't, I dunno,
CAHALY (21:09):
It keeps coming November 6th.
PROFT (21:11):
I,
CAHALY (21:12):
I thought there's no way this thing, but is there, I I really do believe if, if we do
have the search that is potentially there, itcould be over election night.
All right, we're gonna be watching Robert Haley,thanks so much. Please like this video and
subscribe to this channel if you haven'talready. And please leave a comment in the
(21:33):
comment section. We'd love to hear yourthoughts.
CAHALY (00:03):
Yesterday, Tommy, talk about kind of tone death yesterday, she comes out with this
indigenous people's day and talking about howawful the people who came over to America were
and, and they brought disease and they killedpeople and all this kind of stuff. It's like
saying, and you know, anti Columbus Day message,Trump gives a pro Columbus day. We're not gonna
(00:24):
change it. I mean, even if you think that you'retrying to win a presidential election and you're
offending a lot of Italians, I mean CatholicItalians, I mean, it's just because this is
something that they take very seriously.
PROFT (00:46):
Welcome to another episode of Counterculture, the show that stands at the
intersection of reason and faith in the battleagainst sentimentality. For a moment, let's set
aside the head-to-head numbers between Trump andKamala, even in battleground states. And look at
some of the underlying cross tabs. Trump ispoised to do better among black voters than any
GOP presidential candidate since Nixon in 60,better among Latino voters than any GOP or since
(01:09):
George W. Bush in 2004. He's up five points withCatholics who comprised 30% of the electorate in
Pennsylvania. Biden won Catholics in 2020, bythe way, and Kamala is running 18 points behind
Biden's number among Arab Americans. Combinethat with Trump increasing his spread among the
non-college degree, and one has to ask thesimple question, how is it even possible that
(01:31):
this race doesn't end in an electoral landslidefor Trump? And if it is, are we looking at more
sizable majorities for the GOP in the House andSenate as well to help us decipher the polling
data and offer some prognostications? We hopewe're pleased to be joined by Robert Kaha,
founder of the Trafalgar Group Polling firm.Kaha, you'll recall, was the most accurate
pollster of the 2016 cycle correctly identifyingTrump as leading Hillary Clinton in key swing
(01:56):
states going into that, into that election. Infact, Trafalgar has been the most accurate
pollster of the last two presidential elections.Kaha is not one of those wishful thinking
pollsters normally associated with corporatemedia outlets, which is why we're pleased to
have him on this installment of counterculture.Robert Kaha, welcome. Thank you for joining us.
CAHALY (02:16):
Hey, it's great to be here. And there's, I tell you what you, you started out just right
with looking at those cross tabs and, and howthe, this, this race is so different than anyone
could have possibly predicted.
PROFT (02:31):
Well, right. And so, so I mean, a address that, I mean the, the numbers with black and
Latino voters, bill McGurn had a good comment inthe Wall Street Journal about communist problem
with Catholic voters, which is a problem inPennsylvania. And if she doesn't win
Pennsylvania, there's no path it would seem, andeven Arab Americans polling out this week with
Arab Americans Trump running neck and neck withKamala, that obviously is a problem for her in
(02:54):
Michigan. So, I mean, how, what's the path forKamala? Is there one,
CAHALY (02:59):
You're exactly right. I mean, you, you know, you, you just look at this, I mean,
yesterday, Tommy talk about kind of tone deathyesterday, she comes out with this indigenous
people's day and talking about how awful thepeople who came over to America were and, and
they brought disease and they kill people andall this kind of stuff. It's like saying, and
(03:20):
you know, anti Columbus Day message, Trump givesa pro Columbus day. We're not gonna change it. I
mean, even if you think that you're trying towin a presidential election and you're offending
a lot of Italians, I mean Catholic Italians, Imean, it's just because this is something that
they take very seriously and it, it's just dumb.I I don't understand why you would do something
(03:46):
like that right now. I mean, I, I get that youfeel that way and it, but it's like she's done
such a good job of messaging that the campaignhas done to make her look interest, to make her
like somebody who's worried about the middleclass and the plight of average Americans. It's
like she just took a, a misstep and you, it islike she revealed a little bit of what you kind
(04:13):
of knew she was. And that's what we've beengetting a lot from voters is they're saying, I
like what she says, but I don't believe what shesays is what she really thinks.
PROFT (04:26):
Right. And it was sort of a moment where it's clear that she's tethered to and trying to
sell the classes where Trump is selling themasses. And oh, by the way, the masses are
bigger than the classes in terms of theelectorate.
CAHALY (04:43):
Exactly. Right. I mean, you know, Trump has certainly has had his problem with kind of
suburban college educated folks and a littlemore trouble with seniors than Republicans tend
to have. But you know, people ask me about that.I always say, Hey, first of all, you've gotta
think about the seniors that existed in 2016 andthe seniors that exist in 2024. That's eight
(05:09):
years. That is a lot of greatest generation andsilent generation. People dying. And a lot of
baby boomers are basically, all of them now havemoved into being seniors. So that is a logical
turn a little bit to the left because of theideological makeup of both those different
(05:29):
groups was very different.
PROFT (05:31):
So I mean, so is that, is that her path? I mean, she needs to get, you know, massive,
massive turnout from suburban enclaves aroundbig cities in addition to the big cities in the,
in the battleground states plus do surprisinglywell among seniors and, and she could somehow
cobble together a winning coalition.
CAHALY (05:52):
Right. What she would, what she would need to do to to to just be safe is to have all
the people that are in small towns, ruralcommunities and you know, just the smaller
suburban areas, have all of them not show up andjust except for their old people and just to
(06:14):
have seniors and urbanites and largersuburbanites all vote that are all above a
hundred thousand dollars a year income. If shedid that, she'd have a big win.
PROFT (06:28):
But I mean, what's the likelihood of that? Where, where, where's the possible, right.
Where and where does the enthusiasm, where doesthe enthusiasm stand right now, Trump voters
versus Kamala voters?
CAHALY (06:38):
It's interesting. When Kamala first got in the race, we saw Democrat enthusiasm tee
tweak up just a hair above Republicanenthusiasm. But now it has settled back down and
there's still a Republican gap Republicans aheadby about eight to 10 points in most of these
states. And that's significant. I mean, you haveBarack Obama, I mean all but lecturing black
(07:02):
males for not voting for Kamala. I mean, thatwas surreal. And then Bill Clinton getting the
dates mixed up and basically talking about Lakeand Riley's case as if it had to do with the
bill that Trump kept from passing
PROFT (07:18):
Right. While also saying, you know, we need to vet people coming into this country.
Yeah, I know that's, that's sort of what Trumphas been saying. It's, it's been interesting the
last couple of weeks, Biden running cover forDeSantis against Kamala and then Clinton
supposed to be in Georgia campaigning for KamalaHarris talking about Lake and Riley and vetting
immigrants. That's not exactly,
CAHALY (07:38):
And, and that Obama not really helping.
PROFT (07:41):
Yeah, right. Well, but I mean the, the Obama thing, I, I wonder too, and maybe this
shows up in polling, I mean, the idea, idea thatObama didn't have coattails when he was
president at the height of his popularity, youknow, down ballot Democrats got wiped out during
Obama. He was personally popular, but it didn'ttranslate. And does it translate any more 12
years later? I don't think so.
CAHALY (08:02):
Well, you know exactly right. I mean, we, we see them take a lot of credit for, I
mean, for 2020 when there was a few states Obamacampaigned in, but the fact is that was a much
closer race than anyone other than usanticipated it would be. And you know, but for
(08:23):
just a few votes in a few different places goesthe other way. And I mean, certainly there were
lots of problems and what I call shenanigansgoing on that year. And then in 2022, I, yeah,
there's a lot of places Obama campaign that won,but that, that turned out based on what the
Democrats were doing, built their machine inthis races in the States where they, they had us
(08:47):
Senate seats and plus the abortion turnout. LikeI don't think Obama can really take credit for
making a difference anywhere.
PROFT (08:55):
Yeah. And you know, I mean, where is Biden right now in terms of his standing?
Because it almost seems to me that despite hisdebate performances or the lack of ability to
perform in a debate, I mean, he still has aconnection to working people. You know, the
whole Scranton Joe thing, he built up over fouror five decades,
CAHALY (09:17):
No question.
PROFT (09:18):
Where, where, where she doesn't, and, and I mean this,
CAHALY (09:20):
And and that's what I said from the very beginning. Yeah, yeah. I said, this lady will
not be as competitive in Pennsylvania andMichigan as Biden would've been, but she would
be more competitive in Georgia and NorthCarolina and, and the other Sunbelt. And that's
exactly what we've seen. Because she cannot getthose blue collar workers to look at her and her
(09:46):
record and say, this is somebody who cares aboutme. But on the other hand, you know, we have a
significant African American cop population herein Georgia, a significant one in North Carolina,
and there is some enthusiasm for her that justdidn't exist for Biden and the young people a
little more enthusiastic than they were. So, youknow, it was a trade off. But you're right, the,
(10:10):
the coalition that Joe put together, and let'sremember in 2020, Joe was seen as a, as his
whole entire congressional record had beenmoderate Democrat who was the moderate, who came
out of the Democrat primary of a bunch ofliberals. And he was seen as the moderate. And
so that went into people's calculus. Theythought, well he won't be much different than
(10:34):
Trump. It'll just be a little less drama. He'snot a big lefty. That is what they thought. And
they have a lot of buyer's remorse for thinkingthat because he did not end up governing the way
old Joe that everyone had known for 40 years,used to vote. He, he was completely different
person.
PROFT (10:53):
But with, with black voters, I mean this could be another hoist by your own patar kind of
situation. Because on the one hand you say, wellyes, she's got more enthusiasm among black
voters, but, and so they may not have turned outfor Biden, but black voters may turn out at
higher rates, but she's not gonna get thepercentage that she needs. I mean, you know her,
(11:14):
she is trailing off significantly from even whatBiden Right.
CAHALY (11:17):
But, but she is doing better than where Biden was. She is doing better than where Biden
was in 2020. And so that's what I meant by that.No, there's
PROFT (11:27):
No question. No, I understand. Yeah, but I mean, but I mean, compare it to the model
that's required to win, though. I'm not sayingBiden was gonna
CAHALY (11:33):
Win either. Absolutely. No, yeah, absolutely. Well, yeah, we can all concede that
Biden probably wasn't going to win and it wasprobably gonna be a much larger election, victor
for Trump then this could be if he wins at all.But absolutely, I mean this, that we, it's a
significant amount and it's, the other thing isin 2016, even 2020, we do a lot of work to kind
(11:57):
of identify these hidden voters. And a lot ofthose were black males. And now they just tell
it. I mean, it's like they are not gonna beshamed about it. And they were literally one of
the biggest groups we felt, we felt like we'rehidden Trump voters. And, and I would still tell
you to this day, no matter what the exit pollsaid, again, if you won't tell a pollster the
(12:20):
truth on the phone, the odds of you telling somekid with a clipboard at your polling place, the
truth are very good. So relying on exit polls iseven worse pseudoscience than the polls that got
the election so wrong.
PROFT (12:39):
Do you see any states that we're not talking about now, not significantly being
surprisingly close or maybe even going adifferent direction than they're assumed to go?
I mean, you saw the Department of Justice justsue the state of Virginia over removing
non-voters from their voting roles. It's kindasort of interesting. Why would you pick out
Virginia? Virginia is not perceived to be inplay for Trump at Minnesota. You know, here we
(13:03):
go again, it's a little bit of fool's gold, Ithink. But get your opinion. Minnesota is some
polling, has it within four or five points a anyof these? Yeah. Do you think the map expands
beyond the half a dozen states we're talkingabout at all?
CAHALY (13:15):
I mean, here's the thing. We have seen a significant undercurrent of Trump voters that
are hesitant to say they're for Trump. And in2016 it was being shamed mostly with live
callers. People didn't want to say to a livecaller, they were for Trump. 'cause they did not
wanna be judged by that person they're talkingto by 2024. It's a different thing. There's a
(13:40):
perception among many Trump voters that theJustice Department has been weaponized against
them. They don't know what's gonna happen. Andyou know, when you kind of, the way when you
talk to, you know, strong Second Amendmentdefenders, they're always opposed to gun
registration because they know that that will bethe list they use to go collect the guns. People
(14:02):
feel that way about polls. I mean, they'realways asking, all right, what are you doing
with this information? Who are you, well what'sthis about?
You know, who's gonna have access to this? Isthis gonna be something big tech can get? And
it, they're very nervous. And so what we'refinding is people who, you know, hear stories of
people who use an ATM in Washington on January6th, even though they weren't anywhere near the
(14:26):
capitol, you know, being investigated. I meanthey, they just, there's too much of this. And
so, well, there's an undercurrent and, and and Itell you all this too, and you answer your
question about the states that if theundercurrent is what we think it could be, yes.
I think that you could possibly see Virginia inplay. I mean, I think New York could actually be
(14:47):
in play. Wow. I mean, look, it was five pointson the governor's race last time. Five Points.
We were the only people who ever said that racewas closed. Everybody said it was 10 or 12 point
race and it ended up being a five point race.
And there is a lot of buyer remorse for votingfor ho. And so, I mean, you look at the
reaction, the guys getting knee, he's not makinga mistake to go do this because people have just
(15:14):
had it. And so I think it wouldn't Minnesota,I'm just, I'm just not, not sure I'm buying it.
I I just, I remember from looking at a littlekid, that was the only thing purple for Walter
Mondale right? Back in the day, or only thingred. 'cause back then the Democrats were red,
the Republicans were blue. But I, I just, I'llnever get that out of my head that that was the
(15:38):
only state that went the other way. But I, Ithink looking on the edges for Colorado, maybe
in New Mexico, but certainly I, I would putVirginia and I put North Carolina in there and
(15:58):
it, it, it is just
PROFT (16:00):
North Carolina the other way.
CAHALY (16:02):
CCBI didn't mean North Carolina. I I meant New York. Oh, New York, yeah, Virginia and
New York. I mean, I just wouldn't rule out NewYork and I wouldn't rule out New Hampshire
either.
PROFT (16:11):
Wow. That's interesting. So, so I mean, based on what you said though, the reticence and
the suspicion, which is understandable to talkto pollsters. So, you know, the obvious
question, 'cause a lot of people say, I don'ttrust any of the polls. I don't believe them.
What, why should, why should people trust thepolls? Why should they believe them?
CAHALY (16:28):
Well, they shouldn't believe most of them. I mean, that, that's the whole point is
these guys have been off significantly andpresident's races two times in a row. I mean,
you know, if our era and we were the number onelowest error rate in 2020 of people who polled
more than 10 states, then there were a few whopolled just like few, you know, they didn't
(16:51):
matter. But of the people who did real, youknow, large amount of states and hit all the
battlegrounds on of the edges, we were like 2.4error rate. Now that is ridiculously low
compared to, you know, the A BCN BBC five. Theywere all like five. I mean, that's a huge swing
(17:15):
of an error rate. And the fact is they do notknow how to count these, what we call Trump
surge voters or hidden Trump voters, shy Trumpvoters scared Trump voters, whatever you wanna
call it, reticent Trump voters.
They don't know how to count them. And I do notbelieve they have changed it. They can tell you
(17:35):
they've changed their model, but the first thingthat you know, they haven't is when you look at
their questionnaires, the 30 questions, thefirst thing I'll tell people, when you're asking
30 questions, you are losing average people.They will not take a poll that long. You are
going to over sample the people who are educatedmore free time and who care more about politics.
(18:01):
And you're gonna lose some people who are in abusy life trying to take care of family work and
everything else. You just lose 'em. They're notgonna take those long polls. So, so, and god
forbid they use focus groups, I mean not focusgroups, they use online panels, which are kind
of like big focus groups of PE and you know,online panel.
Like think about how weird you have to be tosay, I'd like to be on online power to take a
(18:26):
political ball once a week. How not averagevoter is that? Right. So that's why I don't
have, I don't have any real belief they havedone anything better. And we see, you know,
we've been measuring how we look at the hiddenvote with some of the, some of our, our unique
tactics to do that. And then one that we'vetalked about, you know, asking the, you know,
(18:48):
who do you think your neighbors are gonna votefor? It's a great projection device. We kind of
brought that on the scene in 2016, not that wecreated it, I learned it from a guy named Rod
Sheeley back in the nineties, but in SouthCarolina. But it, it's one of those things that
we even just look at the neighbor question wesee.
So our biggest state was Ohio in 2016. Andpeople, we were saying, he's not just gonna win
(19:14):
Ohio, he's gonna win it big. And people werelike, you're crazy. Well, of course he did just
win it big. We're seeing a very strong hiddenvote in Pennsylvania, a very, and the biggest
one in Nevada. And I get it with all the unionpressure, but you know, we see a, a big one in
Arizona and a a, a big one in Michigan, Georgia,and Wisconsin and North Carolina. Not as much,
(19:40):
but it's interesting. And if, if those even athird of those people break toward Trump, those
states won't be close.
PROFT (19:47):
Oh, that's really interesting. And so last question we'll let you go. Victor Davis
Hansen recently reminded us that it was veryclose between Carter and and Reagan in 1980.
Gallup had Carter up a couple of points goinginto the last few days of the election, and then
of course Reagan won 40 states. Do you see thepossibility of something like that, maybe not 40
(20:10):
states, but something like that, that surge thatyou're talking about? Yes, a
CAHALY (20:13):
Absolutely. I mean, if, if he does even a third of what we think is hidden vote right
now you're talking, you were talking about thepotential of a, of a popular vote win. You're
talking about potential of over 320 electoralvotes and not worried about the house
(20:36):
representatives sweeping a lot of men and thepossibility of sweeping in as many as six Senate
seats.
PROFT (20:45):
Wow. All right. Robert Kaha, founder of Trafalgar Group polling firm, of course as we
were talking, Robert, thanks so much for joiningus. Appreciate your insights. Insights is gonna
be an exciting last three weeks. Appreciate it.
CAHALY (20:56):
It is literally gonna be one for the races and I, I'm, I'm looking forward to it, but
I, I can gotta tell you people saying, what areyou gonna do when it's over? I said, well, when,
when is it gonna be over?
PROFT (21:08):
I don't, I dunno,
CAHALY (21:09):
It keeps coming November 6th.
PROFT (21:11):
I,
CAHALY (21:12):
I thought there's no way this thing, but is there, I I really do believe if, if we do
have the search that is potentially there, itcould be over election night.
All right, we're gonna be watching Robert Haley,thanks so much. Please like this video and
subscribe to this channel if you haven'talready. And please leave a comment in the
(21:33):
comment section. We'd love to hear yourthoughts.
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