105. Our 2025 Predictions Revisited: What We Got Right (and Wrong)

Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
This is what's scary about it.

(00:01):
Whoa, whoa!
Hold on. Stop! Stop!
Jay, put those up again.
What up your fricking guns, bro?
Look at that.
If you give the, Oh, yeah.
Jay's over there. Look at all time.
Look at that crap.
Oh, boy.
It's so funny.
I was actually on the spreadsheet,so I wasn't even watching myself, so.

(00:22):
Yeah, bro.
No looking good. Jay.
The girls for the girls.
My 15 yearold drags me to the gym every day.
It's showing, man. Yeah, as long as, like.
As long as I stay chest up.
I'm good. You.
Welcome to Drunk Real Estate.

(00:44):
[...] Grab a drink.
Enjoy the show.
Hey, there.
Welcome to episode 105 of DrunkReal Estate.
I am Kyle Wilson, Ashley Wilson's husband,and I'm joined with my co-host Jay,
AJ and Mauricio.
Welcome, gentlemen.
Cheers to another episode.
Oh, we really do.
This is my.I don't like these prediction episodes.
We're really going to do this.

(01:05):
I mean, Jay's insisthe literally called this out last episode.
Said we are doing the predictionsepisode last week
and I had this discussion with AJ.
We were coming uphere. AJ did a great job.
He did a little AI summary of how we didlast, last time with the predictions,
but the problem is, if you go backand listen to our predictions episode,
the predictionsfor were for the end of the year.
So like what was the point?

(01:26):
Like, if we don't know right now,we could say like, who's winning?
But we can't.
Like there was actually no winners yet.
Well, we can always do new predictions.
There's plenty of other thingswe can be predicting.
We can talk about our, our current statusand where things are headed.
I mean, it's fun. People love these.
You know what?
We can predict again, last timeI predicted that the Eagles would win

(01:48):
the Super Bowl. How'd that work out, boys?
I don't know which sport is that.
That's like I'm predictingthey're winning again.
Back to back champs.
I predict that I won't givea rat's ass about it.
And I'll probably be right again.
Well, let's get right into this, though.
I will give updates onwho's winning because, according to this,
AJ was significantly winningso far in his predictions.

(02:09):
I don't think I was that far behind.
And then, Jayand then Mauricio was pulling up the rear.
Mauricio was shouting from the rooftops,a recession, recession, and
and all of his predictionswere based on that.
So let's start with that.
Does anyone want to update theirpredictions on a recession this year?
AJ and I both said no recession in 2025.
Mauricio Jay both called for a recession.

(02:29):
Jay, do you still think there'sno recession this year?
Well, it looks likeby the time this episode comes out,
we're going to see a strongQ2 GDP reading.
So if we're using the two negativequarters of GDP
as the, as the benchmark for a recession,
I'd say it's unlikely because that wouldrequire both Q3 and Q4 to be negative.
Not saying it couldn't happen, itcould. But,

(02:51):
we're already halfway through the yearand and we've got a strong Q2 reading.
It looks like.
So I think the safe bet here is no,at least no technical recession.
This year.
But but but if the recession starts in Q4,it goes Q4 and then Q1, right.
And then they decide the recession.
They call the recessionsin the middle of 2026,

(03:11):
then the recessiontechnically start in Q4 of 2025.
If that's the case, then yeah, I'msticking with mine. That's a good point.
So thank you, Mauricio.
I am sticking with my prediction
that we will see a recessionthat starts either in Q3 or Q4.
We may not know about it until next year.
I hope I give you props.I thought you were going to pivot.
I thought you were going to caveatlike you always do and you didn't.
So you stuck with it.

(03:32):
All right.
You're still at the moment you're losing.
I'll just I'll just point that out.
Mauricio, are you,are you sticking with it, too?
Can Ican I continuously, vehemently object
to the format of the show,or are we moved on from that?
We've moved on from that.
There's no way we're going to do another
because it's because I got a report cardand I'm, like, stinking.
So I'm just really down right now,and I don't know what to do at this point.

(03:55):
I'm protesting.I might just go the complete opposite.
I need to mix things up.
So, so if my prediction wasthere was a recession
by the I'm going to stick with it, though.
I think there is going to be a recessionby the end of the year.
I'm sticking with my job.
But look, let's be clear,we've been doing these these prediction
episodes since mid 2023.
And I think, Mauricio has called

(04:16):
for a significant recessionevery single time.
Like, may I have successfully call23 of the last two recessions?
I just want to make surethat we're on the same page.
So for the record, AJ,I don't know about you,
but I assume we're both stickingwith no recession this year.
Yes, sir.
Where you arethe Robert Kiyosaki of the group,
we've gotten pretty good at kickingthis can down the road.

(04:36):
And with everything, everything goingon, it's pretty easy for them.
If if they start seeing the wheelsfell off a little bit
now, it might throw a wrench in there.
If Powell is just keeping interest rateshigh just out of spite.
But if he traditionally I would thinkif he starts to see any signs of
of faltering, he'sgoing to pound on that easy button.
All right.
Next the next one, everyone wants to knowis, how many rate cuts.

(04:58):
So the consensus we were all thinkingthere would be maybe like 2
or 3 rate cuts.
Now, I think two still on the table.
Three is very unlikely.
So, I'll go back to AJ. What? AJ,what do you think?
Do you think we're going to seea couple of rate cuts? 319.
What do you think. So two.
So we're going to end up.
So we're calling that 375 right Jay.

(05:21):
So look I like the consensus here.
So for those that are watching this on on
YouTube, here is the,
the basically investor sentimentand what the current market conditions,
our current market predictions are fora rate cut the, over the rest of the year.
So it's about 5.5% chance of no rate cut,

(05:44):
28% chance of one cut, 44%chance of two cuts
and a 22 over 22% chance of three cuts.
And then there's a little bit of achance of of the full point.
So this is saying two cuts.
I think we get at least one.
I mean, if I'm going to call that there'sgoing to be a recession
starting this year, I think I'd be crazynot to say that there's going to be.

(06:06):
If you think there's a recession thisyear, then even calling two cuts is crazy.
You're contradicting yourself.
If if the recession starts in Q4 as asbut that's not
so the question would be, is a classifiedas a 2024 recession if it starts?
Yeah. Well, yeah,that's what we just talked about.
If we get Q4 in Q1 of next yearas as negative GDP,

(06:27):
technically that started in Q4.
We just did well, we'll give himif it starts in the end of 2025
and we know don't notice it till 2026.
You and I will come on the podcastand will
we will give a PSA saying Jay and Mauricio
were retroactively we're apologizingand saying partly right. Yes,

(06:49):
partly.
Okay.
Also, what's your final answerat Jay once again with these answers?
Oh, we could be this.
It could be that.Oh yeah. They just give us an answer.
Half point. Half point.
All right.
Same famous AJ Mauricio,are we calling percentages or we call it.
How many cuts do I mean if one cutswe're assuming it cuts a quarter point.
So I mean wow.
Oh I don't know.
Oh you can do whatever you want Mauricio.

(07:11):
Both of them are saying 50 bips.
Look, I'm.
Is it my turn or am I?
I mean, I might as well go, right?
I mean, you know,I've been such a success.
I'm going to I'm goingto go a little bit against
I'm going to go on a limb on herebecause I do think that,
yeah,I know it's another question coming up.
I do think that with the tariffscoming through
you're going to see some inflation.
I think you see some inflationary numbers
as the terroristsmake it through the system.

(07:33):
So I'm going to predictno rate cuts this year because yeah.
If you got inflation theand not that Powell wants to do Trump
any favorseither. He's out the door anyway.
But not that he's you knownot that he's influenced by that.
But if you've got inflation numberspopping back up, which I think they are,
then I think there's a good chanceyou'll see zero rate cuts.
So you think recessionbut no rate cuts. Yes.

(07:55):
And and huge inflation and ratios.
I think Mauricio at one point was callingfor 9% inflation by the end of this year.
So now by the end of the decadethat's a lot.
That's a lot.
In his defense, that was that was the endby the end of the decade.
That's a lock.
That's a that's a mortal lock.
Jeez I like I now that I knowwe're ranking
this, I do think it's most likelythat we're only seeing 50 bips.

(08:19):
So butat the same time, I feel like someone's
got to take the other side of it.You Mauricio saying zero.
You guys are just saying
right along, toeing the company linewith with with two.
I'll go three. I'll take three.
I think inflation is muchless of a problem than we think it is.
I was looking at a little bit more data.
And if you take outlike owner's equivalent rent,

(08:39):
which I think is it has to go down like I,I know it's a bull.
That's a vast majority of all inflation.
Right. All of the inflation right now.
Like it'd be like one pointsomething, 1.3 or something
if you take out a owner's equivalent rentand like that has to go down
like they're like,I know it's just survey based, but
like all the data I'm seeing that's going,that's going down.

(09:00):
So if you take that away,
we've got a long run up before we'regetting into inflation being a problem.
So I will take three.
I think there'll be some softness in jobsand they will you know
they'll go September.
So it will be at Septemberthe next three starting in September.
And keep in mind all it would takeis, is a really bad employment
reading or some other,some other major event,

(09:24):
that leads the fedto cut a half point at one meeting
or even three quarters of a pointone meeting.
And so it doesn't necessarily have to beI don't think we're going to see
three quarter point cuts,
but I wouldn't rule out a half pointcut and a quarter point, or
even if there's some major event, wait,wait a minute.
And that's an area you guys lose.
If you're calling for three rate cutsand is only one rate up for 75 bibs,

(09:45):
I'm calling 75 Bips.
That's what the that'swhat my guess is 75.
I don't have to sayhow Mauricio just wants to argue.
Yeah.
He just he knows he's going to lose.
So he just wants to have no one win.
Oh, we got to go with it.I want to go to inflation next.
But AJ hasn't answered. Right.
Well so no the agent didn't AJ the answerhe was first.
He said 5050 and 50 for AJ Scott.

(10:07):
This is for the I 5052 cuts for AJ.
Clarify two cuts or 50 bibs. What are youwhat are you going with.
How many bibs.
Oh man that's I,
I want to say 75.
Oh he's going with me okay.
Can I go back to 50.
Like.

(10:27):
All right, let's move on.
We're we're teetering too much.
We got a lot to go through.
And so if we know what ratesare going to be the next logical thing
was let's go with mortgage rates.
Where do we think mortgage ratesare going to be somehow the I thought Jay
was leading this but he's still mortgagerates are like six seven.
And Jay still thought six.
We we thought it was like mid high five.

(10:48):
So he's just the the best of the worst.
None of us are really winningthis at the point.
But I'll since you are technicallyin the lead Jay I'll go with you first.
What do you think mortgage ratesare going to be at the end of the year?
I originally said six.
I think we're above six.
I don't think we're gettingif we get a half point cut,
I don't think we're getting a half pointdrop in mortgage rates.
So I'm going to say somewhere above 6.5.

(11:12):
I know I said six earlier this year, but
I'm going to go with sixfive by the end of the year.
Mauricio,what do you got? Where are we. Right.
Where are we today?
Because I was originally saying between 5and 6, which were higher I guess. What
66966816actually 681 as of this morning. Man.
Because when we did these predictionsthat we were all talking, we were talking.

(11:32):
I thought it was gonna be higherat 5 to 6%.
So what was it when we predictedlast time it was seven?
I think at the beginning of the yearbasically hasn't moved, hasn't moved much.
So this spreadsheetjust isn't very accurate
as most things that Jay puts together,I know skip me.
I got to think through this.
I was gonnaI got thrown off by this five six AJ
yeah, I'm going to go with six.

(11:53):
Yeah, I, I agree, I think it'll be in theI think it'll be under six.
But I found with these thingsit's like they become very rangebound.
Right. So we'll see.
We'll see it drop.
But then like once it hits six then it'sgoing to kind of just bounce around there.
So that's I'm going with you AJright around six Mauricio you were up to
you now.
So so Mauricio I just found it onon another part of the script 27 nine.

(12:16):
It was 6.75 or 6.95
back in Januarywhen we made the the last predictions.
It's it's about 6.8 right now.
I mean, because it's all basedon the ten year. Right.
And so the ten yearI think if if inflation is
this the inflation on the top,but assuming inflation comes through then
more people are going to be aptto not invest in treasuries

(12:36):
and actually go buy a little bitmore riskier assets, which means
they're selling treasuries,which means the ten year is going up,
which means mortgage ratesare going to go up.
So, Mauricio, you've been hanging out
with Jay too often with this responsejust to, oh, here we go.
Give us an answer.
I'm goingto say roughly the same same as today
or same as what you said back in Vegastoday.

(12:57):
That's not a bad guess.
I don't I that's this.
I think it's a good guess.
This ten year treasuryhas been annoyingly sticky.
All right, so next,
where do you want to go?
Let's go back to our old ones.
Let's go. Real estate. Worse than best.
Like we were.
We're on, economics.
You want to do inflation?
All right, let's stick with inflation.

(13:18):
Inflation?
I actuallywe should go with more inflation
because I kind of bang on right nowwinning this.
A couple of us arewere actually pretty close to me.
And Jay, I think it looks likewe were both pretty close.
Some ratio.You got to redeem yourself here.
I'll let you go first.You weren't ready last time.
Where do you think the inflationis going to be at the end of the year?
And we're talking we're talking core PC,

(13:40):
I think is what we settled onin the beginning of the year.
I'm going to channel my energy.
I mean, the challenge isI do think inflation is coming.
The question, is it going to permeate
through the economywithin the next six months?
You know, these things take a while.There's a lag effect. Right.
So I do think that the tariffsI, I disagree with AJ here where I think
the tariffs will eventually make its waythrough the economy.

(14:01):
You'll see, you know, construction costsgoing higher because all of the
the base materials will be going higher.
So I do expect inflation to go higher.
But will that happenin the next six months?
I don't know,
but what do you disagree with me on thatthe tariffs will not result in inflation.
I didn't say that.
I said they haven't yetin the last episode, not that they wanted.
My predictions were thatthey would getting a little soft.

(14:23):
The already I like it.
Mauricio, what do you got I think I thinkJay's backpedaling a little bit on this.
I'm not I'm not sure.
He was very adamantthat, tariff was the number.
Mauricio, I don't knowwhat the core CPK is right now.
Two seven, two seven. It'll be two eight
thick.
Jay, what do you got?
So, I mean, it's a lot of just

(14:45):
personal anecdotes that we're hearing.
But I'm starting to hear a lotabout Walmart raising prices.
Procter and gamble came out today and saidthey're raising prices on 25% of their,
their, their product linesbecause of tariffs, cars.
And, and I think it was Ford that said,there's no way they can maintain,

(15:06):
their level of pricingand they're going to have to raise prices.
It's feels like it's starting toto seep through
when we're starting to feel likethe price is coming up.
And now that we are starting to seesome, trade deals being announced,
and it looks like they're resulting innot zero zero tariffs,
it looks like they're resultingin a continued 15% tariff.

(15:27):
Coming into the U.S,I don't see how we avoid inflation.
So I think well I doyou said there's going to be a recession.
I don't thinkthe two are mutually exclusive.
But but they can.
You're sayingthat how they can't like it's, you know,
a recession could lead to,you know, less inflation demand.

(15:47):
And if there's inflation,why are they dropping rates?
Well, that's the fedcould be in a really tough situation
where they have to decide,do we want to fight inflation
or do we want to fight recession.
And we can have this discussion.
I mean if that happenswhat does the fed do.
Do they dothey fight inflation and raise rates?
Do they fight recession in lower ratesor do they?
I think they've been very clearthey're not lowering rates.

(16:07):
So so Jay, what do you,what do you call calling?
I think we're going higher.
I'm going to I'm going to go withwhat did I say last time?
I'm going to go with 3.53 and a half. Wow.
So, Adrian, next timeyou run this through, I just look put.
Ask how many of Jay's predictionscontradict each other.
That'll be an interesting

(16:27):
I said, I said, I said 3.2by the end of the by the end of the year.
So now I'm saying 3.5.
And Jay, you mentioned the terrorist,the 15% terrorist.
Some of these are, you know, like aluminumand steel. These are like 50%.
So like prices of aluminum, steeland copper is going through the roof.
Like that's another one that that just gotannounced a couple weeks ago.
So if you have these rawmaterials, base metals going higher again,

(16:48):
it takes a while to permeate.
So I don't if it's gonna happenby the end of the year.
But that's definitely inflationary.
All right AJ round us out hereI'm sticking I'm not changing I'm
like as of right nowI'm out of all of them.
I only missed two so far this year.
Up till now I'm sticking with 3%
I think inflation's persistentI don't think it's going anywhere.

(17:08):
I've been saying that nonstopand I'm sticking to it.
Okay, well, so Morrisseyhas come to the dark side with me too.
I was the only one who was sub threelast time.
It looks like nowthat I'm looking at the proper sheet
and I'm going to say sub three again.
So I'm going to say it's it,it might bounce up close to three
but I don'tI think we're still finishing sub three.
As I said I think we have a lot of thingsworking against.

(17:31):
And I think that owns owner's equivalentrent, which is a huge portion of it.
It's coming down.
So it's goingto take a lot for us to go over that.
All right.
Do we want to go with,
let's go with real estate backinto real estate.
Best performing asset class.
Just an update. I still,I said multifamily.
That hasn't popped yet.

(17:52):
AJ industrial Mauricio multifamilyand Jay said data centers.
So we, anybody updating that stuff for us?
Yeah I've actually been doing quite a fewdata centers, and, I like that a lot.
I don't know how you actually,you know, measure that.
I know how you measure that or,you know, in terms of if you talk
about the actual data racks,talk about the like a warehouse building.

(18:13):
But, I like that. Jay,are you going to stick with yours?
I am, I am. How are you measuring that?
I don't know.
I think, again, a lot of itis it's hard to do empirical
under industrial with mine.
Yeah,it goes under industrial. Industrial.
But there are some segments and,you can find the data.

(18:33):
But so far, data centers have been doingtremendously well this year.
Yeah.I'm going to change my the data centers.
If we could do subsectorsI would like to do
climate controlled storageand first year markets.
I could break that down.
Like we're going to start to break downindividual asset classes.
But I want to going to like climatechange, climate and climate controlled,

(18:54):
second controlled first year markets,
but only first year marketsthat are growing at 3%.
Well, it'sit's it's so funny when you think about
and I know this is all thisthis is all old hat to AJ.
He knows this like obviously.
But you don't realize necessarilythat, that
when it comes to self storagethat there are a lot of

(19:16):
different types of self storage.
I mean, you got the value add,
you got the new build, you got the crappyold like tin can type stuff.
You've got the multistory stuffand the performance is wildly different.
Yeah. Maybe we'll do an episodeI it's not a bad idea.
We should probably do an episode
on self storage at some point,because I think that could be man cribs.

(19:37):
You have condos, you have likeI mean, obviously the different types
you have contractorsyou have like it's wild.
Yeah.
And I suspect that ita lot of it is going to impact
like whether you can retrofitexisting stuff into into self storage.
It seems like everybody talksabout retrofitting office and malls

(19:57):
and stuff into multifamily,
but it feels like it's a lot easierto retrofit into self storage
because self storagecomes in so many different flavors.
But that's a different episode.
Like, you don't have to changethe plumbing on office for like, like,
multifamily.
You know, a lot of that off Space Camp.
How is itwe don't have to do that? Awesome.
For the record,I like to when I'm measuring commercial
and how they're doing,I like to use green Street.

(20:20):
They have something that theypublish called the CPI index.
And unfortunately,
you could kind of look at the graphand if you dive into the data,
you could figure out what the last ones,
but it does give you thelike the past month, the past 12 months.
And so if we go past 12 months,
then actually the best performing,you won't even guess.

(20:40):
This has been malls up 9% in the past12 months for,
as far as commercial
self-storage is down 3%,but that's that could be picking back up.
But the loser is lodging is down 6%. So,
that'll be interesting as I'm curiouswhat they mean by malls.
Like, are peopleactually buying and selling malls

(21:03):
at higher valuations or like,what does that mean, that mall?
I think if you go backand look at the history with the malls,
the thing isthe malls were kind of ahead of the curve
in terms of dying, right?
Like, it wasmalls were the first things to go.
And so they're at a different pointin the cycle.
So I just think maybe that's whythey've really

(21:25):
they've already thinned out the herd.
And now it's just the strongest surviving.
And so they're they're
there's only ten left,but they're all doing exactly, exactly.
So I'm hopeful that apartmentsare going to keep coming back.
I don't know, but my prediction
apartments are up 4% in the last,but it's at the same point.
I'm seeing a lot of datawith the apartments, being

(21:46):
the supply is really trailing off,and it's just whether that's
going to hit back end of 2025or it's going to have to push to 2026.
But I will stick with apartments,maybe wish casting a little bit there.
As far as worst performing asset class,if we go through,
office obviously was the winner.

(22:08):
Single family.
Mauricio said.
We still haven't seen that yet,but there has been
quite a bit of softening some resale.
You could surge at the end. Yeah.
I mean, I guess it depends again,that's the issue, right.
Like what market we talk about.
I certainly there'sI mean I'm here in California or.
Yeah,I mean California has had some really.
And again, I'm biased here in California.I mean, we've had some markets.

(22:28):
Well if we do that ratiothen I pick best performing
is single familyand worst performing is single family.
And at the endI'll just pick by the market.
So we're no, we'resaying, what are you speaking industrial?
And I'll pick what type of industrialat the end of the year.
So I mean, I'm, I'm specifically talkingabout below 2500ft²,

(22:50):
two bedroom,two bath copper wiring in California
on a on a cold day.
Do you have any updates?
Are you just going to stickwith single family here?
MauricioI'm sticking with single family, man.
J and AJ both said office.
As I said with CPI office isn't doinggreat, but it's it's still not the worst.
So you know that's what I said.

(23:12):
That's not the data that I'm looking at.
J we won.
Yeah, I think so.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think so. I
so what's, what's your you're updating itor just claiming that you want.
No I, I'm sticking with office.
Sticking with office.
I said self-storage beforejust to be I'm going to stick with it.
Stick with self-storage.And I know AJ is going to crush it.

(23:34):
If when self-storage goes down,I feel like that's still a market
where you could be a big fish.
If you were two years ago,you would have one.
Yeah.
So like, I feel like when self-storagegoes down, that's when people like AJ win
versus something like apartments, it'sthere's just so many big fish that it's,
it's tough to really take advantageif you just see slow, slow downs.

(23:56):
But I'm going to stick with, stickwith self-storage there.
RememberAJ said something that that stuck with me
for a couple of yearsnow that that would drive self-storage.
I don't I,
I don't want to put words in his mouth,but kind of more than anything else
is the number of single familytransactions out there.
When people are buying and sellinghouses, self-storage does well.
When people aren't buying and sellinghouses, it does poorly.

(24:17):
For the last couple of years, nobody'sbeen buying and selling how been buying
or selling houses, but that feels likeit's starting to change.
I mean, I know I'm in a little bubble herein Southwest Florida, but I mean,
the market here is getting crushedand we're seeing a lot accept.
I thought we had a recession coming Jwhich would be the opposite of that.
Well, how didhow did self-storage do in 2008? AJ

(24:38):
it went
down, but itdid better than the other asset classes.
Yeah.
It's it's not necessarilyjust transactions.
It's change. Right. So people are gettingkicked out of their house.
They're going to,you know, self-storage to change.
Exactly. Change is good.
So whether they're yeah, buying or leavingchange is good.
But I don't necessarily think that willhappen by the end of 2025, 2026, maybe.

(24:59):
All right, let's run this up.
Since, Mauricio alreadysaid, sell, single family home prices.
I know we have a bunch of people listeningto this who are single family investors.
How do we think single family home pricesare going to end by the end of this year?
Mauricio already sayshe thinks it's obviously going to be down
because he says it's going to be the worstperforming asset class.
AJ what what do you think they're goingto end off at for the single family?

(25:23):
I think down nationally,
but I don't think substantial.
So I think we'll be down.
But, for single family homes,but it's not going to be
huge just because I think the average
will offset some of the marketsthat are getting hit really hard.
That's a, it's a bit of a pivot there.

(25:44):
You had it up, last time.
Jay, do you think it's going to be upor down or significant?
Insignificant.
So there's a whole lot of different dataaround housing that we can look at.
There's new homes, there's existing homes.
There's the Case Shiller datathat measures things a little differently.
The median home values,
the one I tend to likeis the case Shiller data, because that
I think we decided last timethat's what we're using. Yeah.

(26:07):
And so, we just today, today's Tuesday,
two days before this episode comes out.
Just today,I got Case-Shiller data for May.
So Case-Shiller is a few months behind.
And what we saw is that, every monthso far this year.
January, February, March, April, may.
Home values have gone up,but the growth is slowing

(26:27):
and the growth in May slowed tremendously.
Still higher.
It was like a 0.4%.
But slowing.
And so we're seeing a trendof slowing home growth.
So and twoit goes up normally in the spring higher.
So normally that trackand then fall in winter.
It goes a good point. Good point.
And so if you're following the trends,the trend right now is looking as if,

(26:50):
by the time we catch up to nowand the rest of the year, because, again,
we're still just in May for that data.
I think there's a very,very reasonable chance that we start
to seedeclining home values over this year.
And so, I'm going to say,I think, what are we up this year? 5%?
33. 3% 3%? Okay.
I'm going to say we're going to wipethat away by the end of the year.

(27:11):
That's where I'm at.
I'm I agree.
So which would make myprediction at the beginning
be flat.
So I'm going to stick with flat for thewhat was my prediction at the beginning.
I think it might have been flat also.
Yeah, it was flat also.
There you go.
Right.
Should we take a little break herethat we got a little intense.
We already got a little saucy there.

(27:32):
AJ, took took offense a little bit,so let's let's go around the horn.
So you guys are doing Mauricio,how's it going, man?
What do you, what are you drinking today?
Well, I've decided to mix it up big timebecause I needed to change
my mojo on the prediction.
So I'm actually.
Plus, I'm at the office, and I got to getback home, so I'm switching to a little.
Some poor old black look, you know, I wasI got to

(27:53):
yeah, I got,I went to sushi that I eat and take out
and this lady was pouring,you know, a pint of beer from the.
And I'm like, dude,that that beer looks good.
I haven't had a beer in a while.
So I came across this today and I'm like,let me grab a little beer tonight.
And it's so tasty.
Tasty.
Malty, nice.
It's good to see you back in the studio.
We had a couple days of you, but I, youknow, I don't know what I'm going to do.

(28:16):
The ranch.
I'm on Starlink, and it's just as you guyscould tell from our meeting of the day,
it's just the.
It's just when it jumps,
Starlink jumps from satelliteto satellite every 5 or 10 minutes.
And every so often, it'll it'll jump inthe it just doesn't work.
So I'm, I'm a little bitI only got this office for another month.
I'm out of here at the end of August
and I'm like,I don't know what I'm going to do.
I'm trying to figure that out.

(28:36):
I'm going to move in with with AJ,I think is my plan right now.
You're welcome anytime.
You can always get two starlink'sand then they, then mesh this.
If that weren't. Dude,if that works, I'm doing it. I'm doing it.
I was trying to get, like, the enterpriseor the business,
but they don't offer them or it'sthey're out of. I'm on the waitlist there.
So I just got the regular stuff.
But I need to do something technical.
But technically there is a routerthat you could put two different

(28:58):
internet signalsand it will co-mingle those two signals.
So even if one drops offor one gets slow or whatever.
But isn't it the same satellite thatthat's going over my my house at the time?
It's not like it's going to be.I don't know.
That's the issue though.
It's switching, so I don't know that it'snecessarily the same.
All right. I'll look into it.
I need I need a solution guys.
Otherwise this podcastis going to be jumpy the next the rest.

(29:20):
That's my predictionfor the rest of the year.
The podcast going to be jumping.
Yeah AJ how's it going over there man.
Going good.
Got my DietCoke and my red cup and doing good.
Mauricio I'm glad to see it.
Yeah. Here we go. Little red cup.
No cup.
We might as I borrow.
Oh, nice. Everything good with you, buddy?

(29:42):
Going good.
Going. Really good.
Up in the mountainswith the kids this weekend.
Nice on a lake.
It's awesome.
I feel like the beard is getting tighter.
You trimming, trimming it,trimming it a little trim.
This morning I worked on it a littlebecause I knew I was going to see you.
And I wanted to impress you,so yeah. Good.
Nicely done Jay. What's up man?
We can do a little bit of a science cornerhere.

(30:04):
For Mauricio knowledge with Starlink.
So in a previous life beforeI did real estate, I did technology.
And I worked at DirecTV for many,many years, and I was working
on one of the products I worked on
was a thing called HughesNet,which was basically it's Starlink, but
DirecTV's version of Starlinkand it's internet over satellite.
And, one of the things that we didat HughesNet, DirecTV, was we used

(30:29):
what's called a geosynchronous satellites,meaning we put the satellites up higher.
They stay in one place.
You always point your dishat one satellite.
Starlink has satellites in lower orbit,so it's cheaper to put them there,
but they're constantly rotating,and that means they're doing hand offs.
Every timethe satellites go past your house.
So, so there you go.

(30:49):
You know, can you just text me thesolution to my problem?
Yeah.
I think,
you'd be looking at Elon to come upwith the solution to that problem.
I'm not sure I'm smart enough.
Everything's funny,or at least drinking after that,
I, I pulled out,I saw I'm drinking some wine.
I pulled out a big, bold Bordeaux, 2019Bordeaux.

(31:10):
And, so I'm drinking that,and I'm getting ready.
I'm heading to Dallas,
in a day or two to visit a propertythat were getting ready to close on.
We're buying some landto build a large apartment complex.
I have a conference there this weekend.
I'm gonna be hanging out with Mauricio.
I think you guys are just nuts, but,Mauricio, be.
We'll be hanging out in Dallas this week.
I'm sending my better half.

(31:32):
She actually already sent her.Dropped her off to the airport.
I'm taking care of the kids by myself.
No camp this week, either.
So it's just camp Wilson.
Just figuring out stuffto do with them every day.
So I am drinking a lot.
This is no differentthis night. Just every night.
I'm gonna have to drink to put up with it.
But I'm going with, a beer tonight.
I am a beer drinker.

(31:53):
It's, sometimeswhen I'm drinking more than one drink.
And I'm going with the, the Kona big wave.
It's a, it's a fun beer.
And I also have a fridge right next to me,so if I need a second,
I can just go in and grab it.
Yeah.So you guys have fun there in Dallas.
Think, check on our property there.
Did officially closed out that racefor the first round, right, Jay?

(32:16):
Yeah, we closed it out a day or two ago.
We raised everything we needed, and,getting ready to buy the land.
Nice.
So keep your eyes tuned for the,the next one.
Next. We got, we got a second.
Another. That coming the way.
This is not the pitch fest.
This is not the part of the showwhere you pitch your deals.
That's at the end of the show.Not right now.
I'm just going to take that.

(32:36):
I'll take that criticism under no.
And I will, and throw that note away.
Yeah, exactly.
All right,
let's get back into this, goldtalking about gold.
Finally. Finally, we talk about somethingwe should talk.
The rest of the episode should be on gold.
Isn't this the one thing?
Maurice, you got?

(32:57):
No. Know the fun if you remember.
If you remember, it was not lastpredictions.
Episode was the one before.
And we asked Mauricio what the bestperforming real estate class would be.
And his answer was gold.
So, yeah, I guess I don't knowif you call that a win or not, but
I do, I do, but at that point,if you had not bought all your multifamily
and bought gold on leverage, you know, 80%LTV, you would have done just fine.

(33:20):
Yeah.
So what's everyone's for, Mauricio.
And since you're so excited,I'll let you go first.
Do you think gold's going up from here?That's a that's a good question.
Well, I was looking at my last prediction.
I said I was going to touch 3000,which, it actually touched
and then took off my, it I thinkit's, it's, I think it's consolidating.
I think it's, you know,
did that move from three to about 3400and this is back in April.

(33:41):
And it's just kind of been going sideways.
And I think it was continue to go sidewaysfor the rest of the year.
So I would expect, to be in that range.
So I don't think it's going anywhere
just going to go sidewayschoppy for the next six months.
Yeah.
Beginning of the year took offand then it's been kind of rangebound.
I have a solid idea and go slowlybecause I do have some gold
and it's been like the,you know, the shining star.

(34:01):
You can always just take a look at it,be like, oh,
that's that gold is doing great.
Even though tariffsand all these other things are going on.
But I do agree with you, I do,I do think though,
if we have a little bit of, the backend of this year, if we have to do some
rate cuts and stuff like that,I do think gold could go up a little bit.
So I'm going to say up a little bit.
It's not going down up a little bit.
AJ what do you think?

(34:22):
I think gold will remain fairly flat.
I think most of the run up we've seen.
So I think, you know, what is it on here?
We got me and you, Kyle, and. Well.
Well, Yeah,all of us were kind of right in line.
I think it'll stay right about 34.
Yeah. So that's me up a little bit.Yes. We're. Yeah.
I think it's going to be it'sgoing to be rangebound between 32 and 34

(34:44):
is really where I'm, where I'm seeing it.
I think our predictionat the first of the year will remain true,
because I think that big run upwe've seen.
Jake, you agree with us.
Are you, are you going back?
No, I think I so I was the one,I think I think I was the only one
that said gold was not going upfor the rest of this year.
And, I think I'm going to change thatand say gold's been up

(35:07):
20% this year, and I think we've gota little bit further to go.
And so
and crazy enough, Silver's up30% this year.
And so,which I think I did touch on last time,
silver is been like silver used to movea lot more with gold than it hasn't been.
So there
there is a lot of arguments to say thatsilver has some a ways to go to catch up

(35:29):
with. Of all Jay misses, skip the mat.
I mean, gold started at 2650 ish
at the beginning of the year,and now it's at 3325.
That's way more than 20%.
And and it got upto even higher than that.
So do the math.
Yeah it's pretty pretty close 20.
All right.
So yeah, I'm a lawyer.

(35:50):
Jay's the economist.
We'll, we'll let that one slide.
I'm going to saygold up a little bit from here.
Not a lot,but maybe a couple more percent.
It'll it'll be higher than it is today.
All right.
So couple flats,couple, couple up a little bit.
All right.
Bitcoin and bitcoin.
I'll goI love Marissa's bitcoin predictions

(36:10):
because I know he doesn't careand I know he doesn't follow it.
And so it's always at least entertainingto listen to Mauricio talk about Bitcoin.
So Mauriciowhat do you think Bitcoin's going to be.
What did I say last time.
That I was going to be the only onewho had it going down to 100 grand.
No it was at 100 grandwhen we made the conviction.
You said it was going down and and is

(36:33):
is is Bitcoin still still a thingor is it moved on to other things?
I will say that Ethereum will outperformBitcoin.
I know that's not the predictionbut that's my prediction.
Ethereum will now take overand over the next 6 to 12 months,
and probably in the next couple of years,I think Ethereum will
will bethe kind of the silver to the buying.
Any reason behind that?

(36:53):
Or you just watched the podcast onceand that's what they said.
I saw someI think it was on South Park or something.
I know thatI'm going to actually agree with them.
I know you didn't call me, but,
I think Ethereum has more implicit valuesand than Bitcoin simply because,
it can be used for what are calledsmart transactions or smart contracts.

(37:14):
Smart contracts. Jake. Come on.
And so there is some implicit value
in Ethereum as a solution to both businessand technical problems.
Whereas Bitcoin is kind of it'spopular and
and don't get me wrong,popularity will take it a long way.
Isn't Bitcoin still the only oneclassified as a commodity though?

(37:35):
Ethereum isn't with a nonstick as a as anon sort of security if you're talking it.
Yeah I mean I guess it doesn't matteras much with
with the new Trump administration.
But that was a big deal to me before
because it was technically
the only one where you couldn'tget in trouble for selling it.
Yeah.
Even though all the all the legal
ramifications were Coinbase was in troublebecause there was listing supposedly not

(37:55):
that all got dropped.
So, you know, it's obviously a pro
crypto bitcoin administrationAJ what do you think.
Apparently this is shifting to Ethereumversus bitcoin instead of just bitcoin.
I think the ideaof talking about value with
this is
well alternative.

(38:17):
Because ain't nobody care about thatwhen we're talking about these coins.
I think it will continue
just like it has tracking other index.
It's tracks, it almost like perfectly.
So I think if you'reif you are going along with particularly
a lot of different market stuff, things,I think it's up.

(38:39):
I don't think it'll drop below 100,000.
And so I think I'm staying with above100,000.
Yeah, I think so too.
But at some point I also do think that'swhat we're predicting, right?
Yeah. I have a rock.
Oh yeah. No you're right,you're the only one who actually did it.
So it's interesting because I do think
Bitcoin'sobviously a bit of a vanity play too.

(39:02):
And so if we do see any kind of softness,recession and stuff, like if I,
if I, I don't have any Bitcoin now,which obviously I'm kicking myself,
I had had it before,but if I did have any bitcoin like that
would be the first thing that I would sellif I needed to sell anything.
Right. Like I'm not going to get ridof any of my other assets.
Bitcoin is going to be the first thingto go and the easiest thing to go.

(39:23):
Even over gold.
So, I do think at some pointwe could see it
and we know Bitcoin can correct20% in a heartbeat.
It's not like the like the stock market,even if a stock market corrects 20%.
But that you know, usually takes days.
You know Bitcoin can be hours.
So yeah but I just I don't think it's

(39:44):
I don't see it happening thisfirst year in 2025.
So I do think we,
I don't think we're going up much,but I think we're staying about the same.
AJ, you mentioned, you mentioned youmentioned, an index, some things I always
thought that bitcoin the things I've seen,it tracks like just global liquidity.
When there's a lot of liquidity
in the global markets,Bitcoin tends to catch a bit.

(40:06):
And then when there's a little bit
when the liquidity dries upand there's tightness, it goes down.
The there's a good correlationbetween Bitcoin and the S&P.
So in statistics you can do thisthing called a regression analysis
where you can see how good a correlationis or if there's causation.
And if you do a regression analysis on
Bitcoin and S&Pit's it's it's pretty high.
Yeah. Andoh at least over the last two years. Yeah.

(40:28):
It's like pointeight or something like that right.
I mean it's high.
I thought it was more onthe Nasdaq. Right.
Nasdaq was the biggest one for the Bitcointhat they correlated.
But so it is okay.So I0I almost nailed it.
It's 0.7. That's a close point seven.
It's a pretty strong correlation.
So yeah. But what aboutlook at this one though.
This is and againthis is from frickin Reddit.

(40:50):
Big concern howeverbut this this is the global M2 liquidity.
So if you think gold is going upBitcoin will go down.
No this is the global. This is no no no.
This is what I'm looking at herefor those.
It's the global M2 liquidityas it makes it look identically.
It's easy.
It's easy predict liquidity.
And you got easy money easy money. Yeah.

(41:10):
Problem is we have likeless than ten years worth of data.
So it's
well not only that it's a it's impossibleto I say it's impossible
to track global liquidity
because there's so much of the stuffthat you just it's just not being tracked.
Nobody there's no official arguing.
Bitcoin's like arguing politicsor religion.
It's not really working out.
Well, that's what we do on this podcastevery day.

(41:30):
And it's been our longest segment so far.
We should go back to gold.We should go back to gold.
I'll, let's just run through.
I'll run through a bunch of the stuffwe talked about.
If you guys want to jump in onany of them, we can just to update people.
We, we obviously talked about tariffs.
I don't think we can make predictionsabout tariffs.
I don't want to, who knows?

(41:51):
They change every,the goalpost move a lot,
deportations, whether we there'sgoing to be a lot or a little.
It's I feel like that'sstill one of those things
that it gets a lot of noiseabout things happening,
but I don't feel like it's
that much more than it actuallywas in the, in historically.
So I think we're all kind ofright on that.
Elon, cutting the budget with Doge

(42:11):
technically he did cut some things.
So that's enough to call a win there.
But as far as how much he cut versus howmuch our is going up with the new budget,
I don't yeah, I don't I don't really callwhat Doge did a win at this point.
Daylight savings.

(42:32):
I'm still just hopefulthey're going to get rid of
daylight savings one way or another.
You can keep daylightsaving full time, too.
Jabe made a point last time.
There's a big difference.
But, either keep that full timeor do away with a completely.
I just hate the clocks changing.
National emergency.
Obviously, Trumpdeclared a national emergency.
Where are the files on this one?
I don't see the Epstein files on it.

(42:52):
We'll get there.
Will.
Will, Trump removed Jerome Powell
before his term ends at the endor at the beginning of the year?
We all kind of said no,except for Mauricio said he didn't care.
What I might.
Looking at a different spreadsheet,I clearly it says no, it says no

(43:13):
on the Mauricio column.Am I missing something?
This is the 2025 predictions.
New predictions.
That's what I have. Right? And it says no.
He he was reading the the, UFO files.
Oh, sorry.
My bad. A lot of data on here.
I, I I'm already struggling here. Carl.
You can't just justjust not give me a some points here, dude.

(43:35):
Come on.
I assume we all think the polls hereto stay to the end of his term.
UFO files, that's where I don't know.
Don't care.
Ukraine war in Gaza.
War, do we? Updated?
We still have a Ukraine war,and we still have a Gaza war.
I think most of us saidwe thought the Ukraine war was ending.

(43:57):
Do we think they have an update?
I think we have 52 at this point.
What we have 50 days.
Is that what the what did I say?
I think we all thought that the oryou says agreed with AJ.
Yeah. Might be over next.
No that's Kyle I don't know what no means.
So Trump and Ukraine war no ends Gaza warno you don't

(44:17):
okay so theoretically Jay is stillis in the lead on that one.
But all we need is is that Ukraine warto end somehow and that's we.
All we need is the Ukraine war to end.
Oh, 50 days.
If you listen to our president,it's going to be over in 50 days.
He said if he cut it back to 15,he cut it back to 15.
Oh, okay. Well, I don't look into it.

(44:38):
We'll wait for the next The Truth Socialpost to keep you updated on that one.
Okay.
TikTok that's you know what?
I did want to bring this up becauseI haven't heard anything about TikTok.
I looked it up.
I looked it up, and that deadline cameand went and blew by.
And nobody's talking about it.
And there's no Trump extended it.
He has no authority.
He has no authority under the underthe act to extend it and extended it

(45:00):
anyway. And nobody's complaining.
So if you don't complain
or do anything about it,then you can do whatever you want.
And like I've heard a couple times,there's a group
that's going to buy it,but then you just don't hear anything.
So I don't, I don't, I don't know if it's
if it's worth discussing itjust with everything else going on,
it doesn't seem like anyone really cares,to be honest.
All right.
No comments on thoseso we can move on to some other stuff.

(45:21):
I want to do a fun one here whereeveryone's talking about AI right now.
So I'll give you guys a secondto come up with an AI prediction
in order to to kind of pull this outso you can have some time.
I saw the other day,this is what's scary about it.
Whoa, whoa.
Hold on. Stop, stop.
Jay, put those up again.

(45:43):
What up? Your freaking guns, bro?
Look at that.
If you give the, Oh, yeah.
Jeez. Over there. Look at all
that crap.
Oh, boy, it's so funny.
I was actually on the red sheet,so I wasn't even watching myself, so.
Yeah, bro.
No looking good. Jay.
The Charles for the girls.

(46:04):
My 15 yearold drags me to the gym every day.
It's showing, man.
Yeah, as long as like,as long as I stay chest up, I'm good.
Is that from the weight roomor is that from
is I'm from the weight room or it's outfrom like a mocking all your poker cards.
Just flicking, flicking the cards out.
It's scooping his chips.
Oh that's a back exercise.
That's a back exercise.

(46:24):
They have 50 pound dumbbellsthat planet fitness machines.
We switch it.
Where to?
Real gym now the Costco gym.
I prediction I bring this upbecause I saw this the other day
where there's this company that had an AIand they were like, they were writing
code and they, they integrated theirAI into their entire system.
And they then they implementedlike it was called, like a coding freeze.

(46:49):
And the I didn't know how to handle it.
And it freaked out and it deletedall of their data off the server.
And the the person talking to theI was like, what are you doing?
Why did you do that?
And theI was like, you're right, I panicked.
I shouldn't have done that and was likethe I was like apologizing to them.

(47:12):
And then the guy asked themon a scale of 1 to 100, how bad is this?
In the I was like, this is a 95.
You have to I
basically two months worth of your workis you completely gone
all all through this I did this.
So that just made me like there's got tobe something big happens with the AI.

(47:32):
We still haven't had likeall these scandals or kind of minor where
like one AI gets a little bit racistor something and make some comments,
or one AI gets woke and make some commentsand oh, that's already happened.
Yeah.
I've got here's,
here's my well, you have a questionbecause I think I know where you go.
But I got some thoughts on this.
All right.
Yeah I just want a predictionI want an AI prediction
because I think somethingbig is happening.

(47:52):
This is something that I actually think
is tied to kind of interestinglywith Bitcoin and that stuff.
But I think it's comingwhere AI is going to basically be able
to infiltrate the banking system, meaningthey're going to be able to fake your
passwords and get your face recognition,which they don't already do. Right.
They're already can fake your voicerecognition.

(48:13):
They can.
They're almost there to,
you know, if you if you got a zoom thingor a retina scan or whatever.
And so what happens the daythat all of your people's money starts
disappearing from the banks and they startlosing confidence in the banks, is
because the AI can actually go in thereand, well,
bad actors can go and use AI to, to,to get your bank.
And I think there's there's that why?

(48:34):
I don't have any money in the bank. Yeah.
What happens when the people who
people lose confidencein the banking system
because they're like, dude,I got money in the bank and frickin
somebody coming in and stealing it from mebecause they're faking my identity.
The banks start kicking it in,
then they don't like,are they going to be like, crap?
Bitcoin seems to be.
Or some kind of cryptocurrency seems to bea safer mechanism for my banking world.

(48:55):
And now they're they're the talkingabout official stablecoins.
And so that might be the move into crypto,whether it's Bitcoin or stablecoins
or the the official Chase JP Morgan coin,which is just a stablecoin.
It's not really the same as crypto,but it's something like that
I think is coming.
And you can play this clip when it does.
Yeah,
I wasn't going to get as specific as that,but I do think there will be some sort

(49:16):
of AI controversywhere AI has been used in a bad actors
sense and will infiltrate some sortof end of the major scandal at some point.
And I just think it's,it's, it's building.
I feel like you can feel it building.
I think we're going to startto see a divergence.
I think we're going to seemajor divergence of AI because there's

(49:36):
we have so many of these differentAI companies, how they've structured them
and set them up with the guardrails,everything else.
I think because of howthese foundations have been set,
I think what we will start to seeis major differences
amongst different AIS

(49:57):
in a way that lots of timesprobably we didn't understand or predict.
And especially whenyou're getting into like other countries
because of those guardrailsand how they're set up.
And I think that's going to become moreand more predominant.
And I think that has lots of implicationsthat we don't quite know or understand,

(50:17):
especially how they're builtinto companies or social structures
or governance.
And which one you're deciding to useand how then it's being used.
It's like having three differentpresidents, right?
It has their owntheir own wants, needs their own thoughts.

(50:37):
The way that they goabout actually processing
or thinking the outcomes they wantand why, predicated on
how they were raised, their political,religious beliefs, everything else.
And I think that's going to become moreand more evident by the end of the year.
And that's going to causea lot of interesting discussions
about AI is the differences amongstthem and what that means.

(51:02):
I, I,
I could talk on this for hours,but I think top of mind right
now is simply the companiesthat we think of when we think of AI.
I think that's going to change a whole lotover the next couple of years,
even the next few months potentially.
We talked last year, maybe it was earlythis year about deep SK, which was the,

(51:24):
the Chinese companythat that, came out with.
I like a large language model
that in theory rivaled, OpenAI
for a tiny fractionof the cost and memory.
And now there are a number of otherChinese companies that have come out over
the last few months that are putting out,large language models

(51:45):
and AI models that are absolutely,like, crushing what we have in the US.
We don't hear about them as much simplybecause,
it happened onceand now it's not talked about as much.
And frankly, the USmodels are getting a lot better too.
But I think there's some, some
interesting stuffgoing on in other parts of the world
that may surprise us at some pointthat we're not totally ready for.

(52:07):
And then domestically, I think it's a lotlike the internet revolution where,
we always expected certain companiesto, to kind of win in the internet space
because they were big,pre-Internet and early internet.
So we expected Yahoo to be big.
And we expected, all of those companieslike Yahoo to be back.
And we had no idea that, like,whole new companies would emerge

(52:30):
in different verticalsand vertically integrated things
like Google and,Amazon is a great example.
Like, nobody would have expected a companylike Amazon to exist.
I think we're going to startto see a lot of that in AI as well.
We're going to see new companies emergethat have vertical integration
that we don't even think about in termsof, of, of AI today and, and sectors and,

(52:52):
and products and servicesand AI that we that will exist, that
we don't think about one thing to realizeis that there are companies like meta
that are spending an absoluteridiculous amount of money on AI talent.
They just hired a whole bunchof of engineers
that they're payingbetween 10 and $100 million per year.

(53:12):
And they're getting
between 10 and $100 millionin signing bonuses.
They made an offer to one engineerfor $1.5 billion for a ten year contract.
Turned them down, by the way.
So just to get an idea,like we're starting to see
AI engineers worth morethan than the best athletes on the planet.
So, I think things are likely to changein the next couple of years,

(53:34):
especially as certain companies
start throwing a lot of moneyat these guys and gals.
And I think, again, it'll be a lot like,the internet revolution where we just
we can't predict what's coming,
but it's going to look very differentin a year or 2 or 3 than it does today.
Fair. All right.
I like to end this off
kind of the same way we didlast time where I go to Poly Market,

(53:56):
which is, if anyone
doesn't know,Poly Market is basically a betting site
that technicallyis not legal in the U.S at the moment,
but they're talking about making itpossibly legal.
Where basically you can bet on anything.
So you just go to like what's trendingand it's basically it's
what people think are an interesting thingto bet on at this, at this moment.

(54:17):
So obviously the fed decision inJuly is one of those things.
Will Powell be out as fed chair.
They're even betting on the electionwinner for 2028
Isaiah is right now is is one of the bets.
And JD Vance is winning heavily rightnow. 28%.
Yeah.
Can I tell funny if I tell a funny PolyMarket story.

(54:37):
I saw an article or post.
It was even an article as a post,the other day where somebody posted
basically their Poly market accountand they went from something like $500
to like $128,000 to some ridiculous
over the last six months, growthin their poly market accounts.
And if you looked at all their bets,basically all their bets were political

(54:59):
bets saying,no, nothing's going to happen.
So it was like, is Trump going to do this?
No. Is Trump going to do this?
No. Is Trump going to do this? No.
And basically it was justhe was betting everything was going
to stay exactly the sameand nothing was actually going to change.
And his account just went from likenothing to to over $100,000 in a couple.
And so obviously one of these, big ones,there's actually

(55:22):
three different thingsyou can bet on for the Epstein files.
That's not including the,just lain Maxwell bets.
So one of the bets is, willthey be made public in 2025?
And the current poly poly marketbetting is 31% chance.
So, Mauricio, do you think they're goingto be made public in 2025?

(55:46):
What? I'm sorry.
What the.
This presumably the listor just documents in general.
The files significant files. Yeah.
I don't want to I don't think so.
I've heard a good argument against why.
And so I'm going to say no AJ no, no Jake
I mean I would have bet against thethe prison tape being made available, but,
I guess the question is,is, was the prison tape made available?

(56:08):
Because
that's my that's my point.
Like what happens whenand a whole bunch of files are released.
But people dispute whether they werethe real files or they were doctor files
or made up files or Obama hoax files.
Like who?
Who do they pay out?
Like, that's just seems like a tough thingto to decide if you're going to pay out.
But I mean, I mean, there is a separatebet on Poly

(56:32):
Market of will more filesbe released by August 31st.
So there's basically saying all the samething, like I think more files. Yes.
Yeah I'd say more files.
But what does that mean. Like one.
Like so like yeah absolutely.
Do I think we're going to get a clientlist.
Do I think no
we're not going to get the full files.

(56:53):
If anything documents would be released and the people's names would be blacked out
for their privacy and for their protectionor whatever.
So even if you gave, I feel likethat'd be worse than not releasing.
I never, but that's what I was saying.
They would
they would literally block out the namesthat everyone's just going to assume.
Every single blacked out thing is Trump.
Well, there are.
I don't think they would block outClinton, but by the way, on Poly

(57:16):
Market it sayswho do you think the odds on favorite
is of the person who will be namedin the newly released Epstein Files?
Bill Clinton, number onesecond is actually Prince Andrew.
So there's there's conspiracy theory.
The Prince Andrew has made influence here.
The problem the problem is you nameany one person, that person's probably

(57:36):
got information about everybody else,and you run the risk of them releasing it.
So there is 7% who think Barack Obama
apparently is, is going to beused to be an Epstein freak.
They're, 9% Joe Biden.
Two I'm sure there's a fewthat would say Jimmy Carter also.
All right, anything else on here?

(57:58):
We can bet on ChatGPT five,we could talk about
Elon Musk and his net worth.
And any any other bets you guys want to.
I want to talk about Elon Musk in the,what you called the America Party.
Oh, do we thinkthat's actually going to happen?
I don't think that's going to happenthis year.
Not this year.
Like I think if
he were an American citizenand he could actually run for president,

(58:19):
you would thinkhe'd have a lot more incentive to do it.
I think that's probably the only thingthat would that would stop him.
Yeah, but he could always picka good candidate I like.
I feel like
if you look
at our recent history of candidates,it shouldn't be that hard to find someone.
It would be niceto have real, actual options.
I mean, even the last election,we were only like

(58:42):
the options one was toldand the other one was Trump.
Like we had literally the American peoplehad like one option that they put forth,
the other one was given.
And I think that's just distainto a lot of people.
All right. This is what we're left with.
And I think there's a lot of desirefor that.
So I'm not looking to starta political argument here.
But there's a lot of talkthese days about is Trump going to make it

(59:05):
through the rest of his termor the rest of the year,
whether it be for some scandal,whether it be for health issues?
Do we want to talk aboutwhether he's making it the rest of,
you know, he's not going anywhere.
I can't imagine him going anywhereunless somebody takes out
a bunch of people tried.
So a lot of people are losinga lot of money right now.
Maybe something will happen,but I, I don't I don't see any reason why

(59:28):
it would be more likely with him right nowthan any other person.
Okay. Ghislaine Maxwell pardon.
You know, at this pointI think that's toxic.
If he does that that's like he'she's already more confused.
I'm on this like the Chinese.
Premier Xie out in 2025 which is there.
I don't know if there's news about that,but I'm sorry if I put $100 on.
No, which is like a slam dunkI'm going to make 10% of my money

(59:50):
is how these things work.
Not not straight up.
I just said no $0.90.
And I guess if I put $100 down, I'mgoing to win 111.
That position beingwas not going to be out.
And then if I put yes, it's I get 8to 1 odds, but still 10% seems like a good
you know it's almost.
Yeah. Well that that was Jay's point.
If you just bet he probably betall those. You just bet.
No no no no no no.

(01:00:12):
Well the problem is,is that it just takes you
to lose one of those ten,and it offsets all your other wins.
So that's that's kind of the way it works.
But I'm not now because I'm not losingneither one of my losing.
I put $100 to win800 or 1 dollars to win 111.
Jay, you're the pokerguy, isn't not the EV on that pretty good.
I'm not sure what you're looking at,but there's also the vig.

(01:00:32):
You're also paying the, All right,all right, all right, let's move on.
Let's move on. All right, all right.
It's all I got, guys.
Any otherany other fun predictions? Are we?
I, I think we likehypothetical situations.
I think is, I got a few of those.
If you want to move on to those, doit. Let's do hypotheticals.
All right, I got I got a fun one.

(01:00:52):
You get $50 million,
but you have to figure out a
way to get a Wikipedia pagemade about you.
And you can't, like,ask somebody to do it.
Like, you have to basically do somethingthat is significant
enough that wicked

(01:01:13):
someone writes a Wikipedia page about you,do you think you could do it? So.
So I follow this threadand the general consensus was
you probably have to do somethingpretty bad to get the Wikipedia page.
Like you'd have to be prettyor embarrassing or embarrassing
to get a Wikipedia page. Well,what would you do?
AJ, wait, wait,what does it take to get a Wikipedia page?

(01:01:34):
AJ you can't write a Wikipedia pagefor me.
No, you can't likeyou can't like the rules are.
You can't ask someone to do it for you.
They someone just has to take itupon themselves to go and write one.
And the reason they would do that is ifyou did something newsworthy, significant.
Oh, I'll give you a thousand bucks to gowrite a Wikipedia page about me.
But the bar is actually pretty,so you probably couldn't get one where

(01:01:57):
I couldn't get one.
As of a year or two ago.
Not to say that that I should be ableto get to the final table at the World
Series of Poker, I don't know, do youknow, how about your own Wikipedia page?
Because it they.
So it's funny
because I have a lot of little thingsand if you put them together seems like.
Yeah, he's written five booksand he's done this in real estate
and he did thisand technology did this in poker.

(01:02:17):
But it has to be one thingthat's notable enough.
And they've cracked down.
I had a page, a few years agoand they took it down,
actually,and I did not create it myself either.
So that's the question.
Do you guysdo you think you could do it, Jay?
Do you think you could do it?
You've obviously had some thoughtabout this for 50 million.
I'd certainly try.
Yeah I do, I mean but the problem is once

(01:02:38):
you create one then you have no controlof what gets added to it, right?
No, of course not.
That's not the problem.
The problem is, is can you can you getcan you do something
significant enough inlet's say you have a week.
Oh, a week.
Wait,I think I got the new thing out to do it.
And then I could build outenough publicity around it too.
Yeah. I mean, you got to think,

(01:02:59):
okay, I'm willing to spend 20 millionto win 50, right?
For me, it would be a little bit longer.
But I'd probably try and runfor political office or do something
political where a lot of people knowyou only have a week. Jay.
That was I would I try?
Yeah. I have no idea how I would do itthough.
You could just get arrested.
But for peeing on the, you know, the whiteHouse lawn or something, I don't know,

(01:03:20):
I'm not sure.
I'm not sure you're gettinga Wikipedia page for that.
You'd have to be pretty funny.
I can't answer thatbecause I already have a Wikipedia page.
But you. Oh, let's add to it. Yeah.
I mean, athletes in generaljust get Wikipedia page. So.
All right, I got one more.
If you could pick onebrand that you don't have to do anything,
you basically
just become an ambassador for themand you get everything free for them.

(01:03:43):
Who would you pick?
And this can't be like a, likean overarching it can't be like target
and like you get all this stuffin target or like, you know,
you can't be like, General Millsand you get all of their food like,
it's got to be likeone specific brand that sells black stone.

(01:04:03):
They got to sell it.
They got to sell products that they canthat they can give to you for free.
Costco. You can't do Costco.
But Kirkland would count,I don't know, Porsche, Lamborghini.
Yeah, I want to do chemist.
Yeah, but think about that.
Like, would you like,would you really want to do Kirkland
or would you want to do Rolls Royce?
Yeah, Rolls Royce, that'swhat I'm talking about.
Or like or one of my thoughts was like,what?

(01:04:23):
Like a brand like Mitsubishi or Yamahabecause they make so much random
shit, right?
Like Yamaha, you could get a piano or a,
or a, like a motorbike, you know, it.
It's like they're kind of all over the mapor what's, like a
there's got to be a companythat makes, like, private jets and others.
So then you got to paylike the upkeep for a private jet.

(01:04:45):
I know Kirkland's not a bad answer.Like you can pretty much.
If I do it.
If I do, if I do some B, willI get a house?
They don't. They don't really sellproducts, though. They don't really count.
So what's your final answer?J going with Kurt Kirkland?
I'm thinking of, like,
really high end wine brands,but yeah, I probably do go with Kirkland.
Plautus. What is that?
It's a plain company.
They make the PC twelves and a PC 24.

(01:05:08):
Why? Why not just why not?
Boeing I really like the PC 24 stuff.
That's.
Where you see.
Oh, how about you, eitherGulfstream or Netjets Gulfstream going.
Yeah, I think you still have to payfor the pilots and the gas.
Yeah, I think I got to go with like
I would look into it more, but I thinklike Yamaha or Honda or Mitsubishi,

(01:05:30):
one of those companies that makes likeYamaha would be a good one.
Yeah.
When you get instrumentsyou get transportation.
Yeah. You can get a Yamaha hockey stick.
Yeah.
No I don't know if I want a Yamahahockey stick, but it's all I got.
Guys, for an episode.
We, we got got it over an hour.
You say, what did you just say?
Can we canwe say that this is the last time

(01:05:51):
we're doing the silly prediction show?
No, Carl just said it was a fun episode.
He's drunk. Don't listen to him.
He didn't mean to say it.He wants to take it back.
But he said it.
I've got to go.
I'm getting it back now. It's going to.
Jay is going to clip that and just.
Oh, no doubt that's our intro.
The only thing was fun wasthe was the stuff at the end
had nothing to do with the predictions.

(01:06:12):
I was that's what it's always funhanging out with you guys.
Got any plugs? What do you got, Mauricio?
I don't have any plugs today.
I'm going to plug, AJ's YouTube channel.
Go to AJ, YouTube channel. Gracias.
It's not AJ.
It should just be aj.com, but it's likeis it self storage income.com.
It's AJ Osborne.

(01:06:34):
Wow I think even agent can't afford aj.com
AJ get on it from AJ osborne.com cosmic.
Or you can just google his name.
I spent a lot on J scott.com.
Yeah crazy.
You know how much thatthat that can be a game for next week.
Oh I did you paid all upfront or do you dopayments over time all upfront.

(01:06:56):
It's not that you just
maybe you just made me go and look at Kylewilson.com to see what it was.
And it's that guy, the Jim Rohn guyI bought all my kids names.
Terrell, all my kids names, my wife namesI bought them bought them all.
You should get them if you can buy them.
Yeah. That's interesting.
AJ, what do you got? Plug.

(01:07:17):
You know what?
The tech fund we are, we open up.
Two weeks ago,I think I had talked about a couple times.
I'll stick with that one side about thethe SAS businesses and, our industry
or raising for that diversified,
fund link will be in the description.
Jay, what do you got?
I'm gonna do conference connect.
So we're going to do a big conferencethis, this this weekend.

(01:07:41):
Actually a lot of people who are goingto the to the limitless conference
this weekend bought their ticketson Conference connect.com.
And if they did, they got 10% off.
And if you want to buy ticketsto, to any conferences
you might be going to in the near future,go to conference connect.
Com you probably get 10% off.
And if you don't if it doesn't offer you
10% off,shoot me an email and I'll negotiate it.

(01:08:03):
We do negotiate individually withconferences so you don't see it on there.
Maybe we can work it out.
If and if you are going to limitless,
if you're listening to this
or you're limitlessor you just got back from limitless, then
leave them a review, go check out,you speaking limitless, Mauricio.
You guys are both speaking, right?
Go leave them a review from our,unconference conference.

(01:08:24):
Connect.com. Turn them into top speakers.
They're not really topspeakers at the moment, but,
we are definitely top speakers,just to be clear on that.
And if not, just go follow my wife.
Badass investor.
All right, guys, good.
Good. Hanging out.I always love hanging out with you.
Hopefully we all back next week.

(01:08:44):
Heck, yeah, we'll be out.
All right. I will see you next Thursday.
See you guys.

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