DRUNKENOMICS

Probably not what you all were asking for, but we needed to pay some homage to the brilliant career of Warren Buffett. His insights, banter, and philosphy will be sorely missed in the investing world next year...and yes, we will all do what we can to carry the torch. Additionally, a ton of economic data came in since the last time we had a dram together. More to come on that.

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What a time to be alive...it seems like we're 5 tweets away from either a falling knife or new all time highs every other day. Now there's a 90-day pause, a joust between the Fed Chair and the President, and an honest retreat from the U.S. Dollar. I'm sure I'm missing a couple things, but go easy on me.

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It seems like lately, the odds of a recession are climbing, but it also seems like there's so much more to the 'recession' label than GDP. However, it seems like the private sector has been catching on with new trends on how to produce more 'product' to buoy GDP; particularly with private credit & more BNPL ideas. Now what could possibly go wrong with that.

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Apologies for the awkwardness this week, had to do a solo episode due to some scheduling conflicts, but I promise we'll be back in full form next week! Wanted to give a quick recap on the markets now that we're in correction territory and show some historical data. I also may have confused the term "recession" with "bear-market" a few times, so please forgive me. I blame the whiskey. But to clarify, a recession is a widespread decl...

The Trump Administration is obviously moving very fast and the economy / markets are taking it on the chin. With all the uncertainty around, investors are cleary being cautious as they find footing on how trade negotiations will impact businesses & economic growth. Additionally, GDP revisions are start to scatter as economists try to get a handle on tariffs and how that inpacts output. Hope this helps lol.

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Is it just me, or is the idea of creating a Sovereign Wealth Fund a crazy idea? Don't get me wrong, I totally see the appeal in launching one; but the idea of the Government picking favorites just doesn't sit well at all with me. Additionally, we had some other news on inflation, debt delinquincies, and retail sentiment we had to pour one out to.

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Volatility Mondays are back!! Yes the excitement is sarcastic, but the first two weeks of the Trump administration has been far more eventful than the last four years. Starting with the Deepseek shock that sent a panic across the markets, followed by dozens of Executive Orders, a Fed Meeting, some very unfortunate accidents, and tumultuous tariff talks that ended in delays thanks to some 'wonderful conversations.' Did I eve...

First off, my heatfelt thoughts and prayers to all affected by the devastating wildfires. The saddest part is how most major insurance companies left the LA market months before the fires started. However, they're not the 'bad guys" here; join us for a beer as we explain.

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Stay Drunkenomica...

First episode of what will be year five of Drunkenomics! Thank you all so much for the support the last half decade! We hope the hangovers weren't too rough.

As we kick off the year, we figured it'd be fitting to do a quick summary of the market outlooks from the major asset managers. That is of course after we catch up on the news about Nippon Steel and the DOD list.

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This time of year is always so reflective; but it's also a good time to forecast and prepare for the new year. It seems like the topic of conversation has mostly been around inflation and what kind of landing the Fed will navigate for the economy. With limited tools, the Fed can really only do so much to tackle inflation. So to really address the issue, what needs to happen in the new year?
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Due to the wonderful discussion that's been going on in the discord, we decided to finally talk about the Tariffs and the announced plan for the next administration. It's always a funny balance of globalism, protectionism, free trade, trade imbalance, price/supply chain efficiencies...what else am I missing here?

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Well, if you were looking for less yield volatility, 25 bps in cuts along with more clarity post-election didn't do you any favors. Also, we got inspired by our friends in our discord channel & decided to have some drinks to whether or not our Federal government officials should be allowed to trade or not. A lot to unpack there believe it or not.

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Apologies for the late publish, but we had to wait for election results before pouring that stiff one this week. Anyways, the red sweep after the election sent stocks soaring coupled with the Fed easing cycle continuing. Certainly a lot to unplack this week, so I'll just let you get to drinking.

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Stay D...

What an eventful past couple weeks we experienced, huh? Starting with that amazing jobs report that caused the 10-yr yield to soar, suggesting that the Fed might've either been too Hawkish or too premature. Additionally, the Chinese hail mary of a stimulus package created some volatility overseas, but will it prove itself to be sustainable? Lastly, thoughts & prayers to the hurricane victims.

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The Fed rate decision last week was something that certainly caught us all pretty off gaurd. If you remember, we were pretty much in the camp that a 25 basis point cut was going to take place last week. However, a 50bps cut really got us wondering if the economy is as strong or resilient as it seems. Because seriously, does the economy have any serious tailwinds aside from government spending & AI Optimism?

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