20 Players to Avoid This Year (Ep. 506)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:14):
Hey, everyone, Welcome into the finnsy Prows Football Podcast. I'm
your host, Bobby Sylvester. Mike Taglier is not with us today,
but we do have the great Kyle Yates and the
hunky Joe Pisaps joining the show. He's on Twitter at
Joe Psapa seventeen. Yates is at Kyle y NFL, and
I'm at Bobby finnsy pro Yates. How's it going, man, good,
I'm excited. I actually get to talk to Joe for

(00:36):
like the first time ever. So Joe, welcome, Welcome in.
It's nice to hear your voice. I know, right, we
only virtually ever speak on the stupid Internet, but here
we are finally talking sort of in person kinda sorta.
But really, what this is about is it takes two
people to make up the majesty that is the missing
Mike Taglier. I think that's pretty obvious. So when Mike's
not around, we gotta feel like it's gotta be me

(00:58):
and Yates. Well, I had like four other people just
kind of get up to the level of Mike Taglier.
I think that's what this is all about. He's pretty awesome,
isn't he. He made up some excuse to come on
the show, and in fact, he didn't do it until
he realized that you were coming in the show too.
He's scared of me. That's why he's scared, even though
he's meat you like four times. Yeah, yeah, because I

(01:18):
was the first guy to have a lead on him.
I heard you actually had a puncher's chance there, Yeates,
is that true. That's true. Dan and I teamed up
and we were I think he only beat us by
like seven points. It was super close. That's very nice,
very nice, well done. We're getting closer. He's getting weaker
and we're getting him. It's like it's like when you
fight a bigger man than you. You just got to
take him out like a piece of the time, and
then eventually he's down to your level. Tags is huge,

(01:41):
by the way, he's a big He's a big man.
Hey guys. If you guys are just listening to the show,
by the way, you can check us out on YouTube
at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros, And you can
also check out that Fantasy Feud podcast we were talking about.
Those are always a lot of fun. But Joe Pisa,
he's the author of the number one selling Fantasy Black
Book series, He goes the and is he BlackBook podcast.

(02:01):
He's a TV hosted sports grid host for DFS at
Line Star app pod You do Everything, Joe, When do
you ever sleep? Man? Actually get a pretty good night's sleep.
I'm getting old now, so like by like eleven thirty
or so, that's it for me, I'm done. But yeah,
that's a lot of jobs, man, I feel like I
feel like I kind of need a rest after hearing
all of them. To tell you the truth, that's that's

(02:22):
a lot of things I do. Andrew on the Fantasy
Pros Football podcast like full time almost too pretty much,
which is great. I'm all about it. I love it here.
This is like my second home. I will say this too.
You know what, It beats the hell out of working
for a living. I'd rather be doing this all day.
Like I've got like seven hours worth of radio and
TV to do today. But you know what, I don't care.
Like that's that's a hellful ot the other jobs, you

(02:43):
know what I mean? Right, So, guys, before we get
into the content, and by the way, we're gonna be
talking about ten guys we don't want to draft. Each
of us has a list we're gonna count down. Maybe
we'll get to all thirty of them. I don't know,
because you know, whenever Joe comes on the show, we
always go long anyway, so it probably gets like five each.
But anyways, we've got a contest going on Tuesday, July
fourteenth at one pm Eastern time. You guys are gonna

(03:04):
have your chance to beat Tags. It's the Beat Tags
Draft Contest. You can check out the details at Fantasypros
dot com slash mock. Basically, what it comes down to
is over on our YouTube channel, which again you can
find at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros. You'll have
a chance to take part in a draft, and if
you beat Tags, you're gonna win us free six month
Fantasy Pros Premium subscription. Entering only take seconds. All you

(03:26):
have to do is subscribe to your YouTube channel at
YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros and fill out a
really short form at Fantasypros dot com slash mock. We're
gonna be selecting participants for the mock Friday, July tenth,
so please be sure to get your entries in as
soon as possible. Again, head on over to Fantasypros dot
com slash mock for details. All right, you guys ready

(03:46):
to roll, let's do Yes, Joe, We're gonna let you
go first, and there is gonna be some you know,
we're gonna have some similar players. So if that happens,
you'll just say, oh, I have that gut five and
then we'll just skip into the future. So, Joe, so
that we don't steal your first guy, who do you
have at ten? All right, Well, I'm gonna start here.
And it's not because the guy's not good. It's not
because he might not be great. It's because I don't
like to spend first round draft capital on a guy

(04:08):
that I have questions about. And unfortunately I still have
questions about Alvin Kamara. Like I understand that he's right
there the top five on the Fantasy pros list. I
completely understand that you can make the argument for him
without a doubt. I love the Saints, I love Kamara's talent,
but I have questions. I don't know exactly is he
going to hold up as that number one over the
whole season. Is he going to be a guy that
can carry a full kind of workload. And because there's questions,

(04:31):
because there's unknown, I would rather invest in other guys,
and that's just me, Like I would even trade out
of that spot if I could, if I was at
number five, because I feel like I like some of
the guys that go after that, and I can use
an extra pick a couple of rounds later. So that's
the only reason for Kamara. Again, it's not a knock
on the talent, not a knock on the player. It's
just more of a philosophical thing where when I look
at the first round, I want to get somebody who's
a lock or as close to it as we get

(04:53):
possibly get in football. So that's my reasoning there. So
Kamara is number one on my list ECR number four.
That's the expert consent this rank. So the majority of
experts have him in that three, four or five range.
Just a load you have him, Joe, Like in the
Black Book, he is a little bit lower there. He
is more in that six seven eight kind of range,
you know, depending on the format. And again like it's
it's looking at it like where is you know, like

(05:14):
Derrick Henry is his offense right, you know, I love
that about him. That's one of my favorite things. You know,
you look at Julio Jones is a guy that was
getting thirteen hundred yards. I mean, some of the value
there on this board is really good in the first round,
and I like to take as as many question marks
as I possibly can when I'm building early on. And
this is something in the Black Book we talk about
that roster core strength. You know, you could take shots
later on on a million guys. There's so many good

(05:36):
players this year to be taking shots on as the
draft goes on. Maybe not a million, maybe slightly less.
I could be hyperbole, I might be exaggerating that number,
but overall, man, I think there's there's enough talent here
where you can, you know, certainly get some bonus players.
But I don't like that in the first round. Man,
I know what Zeke is. I don't put him in
that Z category. I think I know what se Quon
is two, which is all world and CMC. We've already

(05:57):
seen the last two years of how good he's been,
and I would feel more rol with Michael Thomas over
Kamara at number five. To be honest with you, Yeates,
where do you have Kamara? I've Kimara at four, right
in line with the UCR. Okay, I've got him at
number two, and actually Yates, I was gonna let you
go second. But mine kind of ties in with what
Joe saying and the reason I'm not drafting sae Quon Barkley.
He's one of my players to avoid. And that sounds

(06:17):
crazy because it's sae Quon Barkley, right, But it's because
I'd rather have Kimara, I'd rather have Ezekiel Elliot, I'd
rather have Michael Thomas. I've got sae Quon Barkley number
five on my big board. I mean, you look at
Alvin Kamara and look, I get it. He hasn't exactly
carried a full workload, but he just breaks the mold
of what a guy like that can do. Jamal Charles
never carried a full workload. We're draft from top five

(06:38):
every single year. Alvin Kamara is exceptional. His game script proof.
And then just check this out. Okay, first seven weeks
of the season, he gets Tampa, the Raiders, the Packers,
the Lions, the Chargers, the Panthers. Tampa was a really
good run defense last year, really good run defense. But
what did Kamara do against them through the air? He
tore them fair enough because they're horrible against their horrible

(06:59):
against sketchy backs. He's also never carried the ball two
hundred times in the season. I know he came close
in twenty eighteen, but still, I mean, you know, we're
not looking at a two hundred fifty carry guy. But
you're right in PPR. You know, three straight years of
eighty one receptions is understandable. Why you're so excited about it.
I just I said, it's just the concern about, you know,
where we are with that workload and how it is.
And look, you know, we've seen guys have great three

(07:20):
year runs and then disappear, which is crazy what you
think about it, but it does happen. And Kamara was
playing injured last year as well. I mentioned the schedule,
but really what it comes down to is he plays
for a much better offense than sae Quon Barkley. So
does Ezekiel Elliott, so does Michael Thomas and sae Quon.
They're gonna be trailing in a lot of games. I
get it. He catches passes as well, but sae Quon

(07:42):
Barkley was dealing with the injury last year and he
just really did not look very good. He starts out
of season against Pittsburgh, Chicago and the forty nine ers
tags mentioned this couple podcasts ago, I don't want to
draft a guy like that who's going to be struggling
through three weeks. You can trade for him at week four,
week five, and I get it, you might not be
able to. It might still cost you your first round pick,
but I would rather just not waste the draft capital

(08:03):
in somebody whose stock is going to drop within the
first month. Yates, where do you have sick one? I
have sake on it too, So I'm gonna disagree with
both of you here. I think that yeah, you know,
now it's a show, you know. With Kimara, like we've
talked about fifteen hundred total yards each of his first
two seasons twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen, and he finishes
the RB three and RB four both of those seasons.

(08:23):
Last year, Bobby mentioned that he was dealing with injuries.
We're talking about his back, his ankle, I mean, even
his leg. He was really really banged up all last season.
Still finished with eighty one total receptions, and guys like
he still finishes the RB twelve on the season. Like,
you know, I think that he has an extremely safe
floor where if we're talking about some of these other
you know, first round draft picks that we've talked about

(08:45):
in previous years, where if they get injured, Hello, David Johnson,
you know, like he's gone, like he disappears, right, And
I don't think that Kimara, even if he doesn't get
back to the form of fifteen hundred total yards and again,
like I've mentioned it in previous podcast twenty eight, you know,
eighteen total touchdowns, that's a very hard mark to hit.

(09:05):
So even if he doesn't get there, though, he's still
is going to finish within the top ten, and he's
still going to bring you boom weeks if he is
fully healthy, and that from every indication he's fully healthy.
There's just something for me, guys about Kamara not having
ingram anymore that I guess there's that's that's the looming
question for me. And I think he was so effective
in those first two years because that one two punch

(09:26):
was just really a lot for posing defenses to catch
up to you. And I'm just saying like that that
was just way too much. And I think that's why
you saw these touchdown totals go through the roof because
you know, nobody knew what to do and nobody could
keep up with what they were doing, and it was
very difficult to guard against. And I think last year,
when you take that away, it becomes slightly more predictable.
But look, the injury was certainly something to be concerned with.
But say que was injured two, and I have say Kuan,

(09:47):
like you Kyle up at number two. So I mean,
there you go. So I mean I guess, I guess
it all depends on you know what you think body
type wise will bounce back better perhaps, But look, everybody's
an injury risk in the NFL. We know that. Yeah,
all right, Yeah, here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna
do this like it's a snake drafts. You're gonna do
ten and nine back to back. Here. Okay, well, I'm
gonna this really isn't a huge one guy, so I'm

(10:08):
just gonna briefly touch on it. It's Philip Rivers. I'm
not going anywhere near Philip Rivers this season. I think
that he's ECR twenty three right now, so he's kind
of still in some conversation for a starter. I think
some people are going to look at him on the
waiver wire some weeks and are going to be you know,
enticed by him. Over the past three seasons, guys, Philip
Rivers has forty eight total rushing attempts for thirty four

(10:29):
total yards. You know, the rushing total is so critical
for fantasy production from the quarterback position. And Philip Rivers
is aging. He's thirty eight years old now, and he
has the type of arm with his throwing motion that
if his arm gives out like it's gonna go out
like quick. And so I was never a huge fan
of the signing by the Colts to bring in Philip Rivers,

(10:50):
and I think that he this offense is going to
be built around the run game. Why would you take it?
You know, why would you put the ball in Philip Rivers'
hands if you're running behind the best offensive line with
Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack. You know. So, I don't think
that he's going to come anywhere close to five hundred
ninety seven total attempts like he had last year. This
is just a guy that I do not want any
part of, even in a two quarterback league. Even in

(11:10):
a two quarterback league, I'm gonna be staying far away
I might, you know, in a two quarterback league on
bye weeks. Sure, you know, I'll entertain that just because
the you know, there aren't many other options outside of that.
But man, he's someone who I just do not want
any part of. He's one of these guys where the
ADPs is higher than the ECR, which means the experts
are lower than the public. On Philip Rivers. So okay, yeah,

(11:32):
it's a couple of guys behind Rivers. Tell me who
you'd rather have or all of them? Gardner, Minshew, Drew Locke,
Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor. I think
the only other one who I might have like that
might give me a pause there is Sam Darnold. But
I think that I have Donald ranked ahead of him. Yeah,
he's right in that range for me with Sam Darnold,
Derek Carr, I've got the other ones ahead of him. Joe,

(11:55):
do you disagree? I do, only because you look at
the track workord of Rivers. He would never running quarter
back anyway. And and Kyle's right, you know, you like
the quarterbacks like Cam Newton who can actually, you know,
to a certain exact dictate their fantasy value every week
by having the ball in their hands more, by running
the football, by scoring rushing touchdowns. And that's the thing
that's not to be undervalued or underlooked as well. But

(12:16):
Rivers is going from the worst old line so one
of the best old lines of football and supporting him
with a very good running game, I think is a
big plus at this stage in his career. And I
love these guys on one year deals too because I
feel like there's that whole prove it kind of thing.
And Frank Reich and him go back a long way
as they go back to the Charger days and the
OC there was the quarterback coach and it's you know,
so the verbiage of going into a new system and

(12:37):
what happens with a new playbook can be a little,
you know, a little daunting and enough to kind of
scary off a guy. But in Rivers situation, this is
actually one of those weird moments where everything kind of
aligns for him. I would take him over I would
take him over Minshoe for sure, over Bridgewater. But overall
those guys, Locke is the only one that gives me
a little pause because I just love the weapons so much,
Like I'm wondering if Locke is just too big to

(12:58):
fail this year as a QB two, a low end
one at that, but still a QB two. But I
think Rivers is kind of in that mid to low
range QB two super flex range. I don't think you'll
have the luxury of taking him as a third guy
unless it's like a ten team league. I don't think
that's going to happen. But as your second quarterback, I
think you could do worse again one year deals. Man,
sometimes they're magical in the NFL. All right, yeah, two?
Do you haven't number nine? I'm going to tick some

(13:19):
people off with this one, Guys. Darius Guys, Darius Guys
is ECR and adp RB thirty. I have him nowhere
near that. Is he even gonna start? Man? No, And
here's the thing that is going too here's the thing
that's going to take people off. I think Darius Guys
is more of a candidate to be cut than he

(13:39):
is to be the starter. Now, I think that you
know you're looking at this team and you're saying J. D.
McKissick is their third down back. They come out and
said that they're going to use him in that in
that capacity. Antonio Gibson was a high draft capital investment
by them, third rounder, and he's going to be used
all over the formation. They're gonna get him into the slot,
They're gonna use him as a pass catcher out of
the backfield, give him some carries on the ground as well.

(14:00):
And then you're looking at a new coaching staff who
they now have a very very solid defensive line, and
you just want dependability from your running backs. And who
is more dependable in the NFL right now than Adrian Peterson.
And so I think while AP doesn't have the ceiling
that he did in previous years. And I'm not sitting
here saying that we need to be drafting Adrian Peterson
for fantasy football. I'm saying that Darius Guys for an

(14:23):
NFL team, your RB three or RB four needs to
have special team's value, and Guys doesn't have that. Guys
hasn't stayed healthy. He only has I think forty three
total carries on his in his career. He's looked great
when he's given the opportunity, when he's been able to
be on the field. But I actually think there is
a path here for the new coaching staff to move
on from Darius guys, and you still have guys Peyton

(14:45):
Barber behind him that this coaching staff brought in this offseason.
My mind is blown that he's number thirty right now.
And maybe you disagree, Joe, but I've got him outside
of my top forty. I mean, a couple of guys
I'd rather have than him, Treat Cohen, James White. I'd
rather have White than him right now, for sure. Damian Williams. Yeah,
I just don't see the upside with guys. And there's
also the threat that he loses his job to Antonio Gibson.

(15:07):
Where Adrian Peterson, who was still really good last season,
he was just behind a bad offensive line. So before
we move on, Joe, do you disagree? No, Look, I'd
love to defend Terius guys, but it's impossible. I mean,
the guy's been hurt so much, it's very difficult. I
think he will slip lower than even thirty. I just
feel like that's going to happen in a lot of drafts.
I think all of it happens too of where you

(15:28):
end up, Like how many running backs do you have
before you take him? Too? If you have three, that's different.
If you have four, oh my god, you know if
you have two, and that's a little dicey. So so
much of this has to with roster construction. But I mean,
it is really difficult to defend Darius guys. And it's
tough because like last year when he played those two games,
you saw it and you go, oh my god, look
at this. And I had him in DFS one of
those weeks and it was brilliant and I was like,

(15:49):
oh my goodness, this is going to be fantastic. This
is gonna be a cheap guy for a couple weeks,
and then unfortunately, there he was back on the injured
list and then that's just not where you want to
be in that's where he spent the majority of his career.
So yeah, I'm a hard pass there too, probably unless
I get him really late. All right, guys, we're gonna
skip over for my next one because I did have
Darius guys on my list. First, Joe, before we move
on to you for your next two, I want to

(16:11):
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(16:32):
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com slash Draft Wizard. Again, that's our draft assistant. All right, Joe,
onto you for your next two? Who do you have?
All right? Well, the first one is a tight end
here and it's Zach Ertz. And it's because I feel
like he is closer to the pack than he is

(16:53):
to that elite group. And when you look at the
touchdown total and you look at Dallas Goddard being there,
and you know, look at some of the adjustments they've
made over the season, I just feel like that Gertz
is good. But we keep trying to have that season
that happened two years ago happened again. And is he
really though? Because isn't good efficient? He just is a
guy who gets a ton of targets. He's not efficient. Well,

(17:15):
he gets a ton of targets by default too because
of the lack of wide receivers now right, and now
they have those widers and they have Miles Sanders too.
I think it's really immerged as a legitimate weapon in
that offense too, and Dallas Goddard who might be better
ding ding ding. So I think the problem is not
that Art isn't a good player, it's that is he
a good player at the third tight end spot? And
I think that's why, like in the Black Book, RBV
will tell you no, like why are you reaching for him?

(17:37):
That's crazy. You can go and get Waller or Andrews
or you know, take a shot on Nevin Ingram or
somebody like that. And I think he's much closer to
that pack of guys right now going into twenty twenty.
And this is what's so important, is you know, track
records important, it's something we don't want to look at,
but we also really need to focus on what does
this team look like right now and is it going
to change in twenty twenty and how's that going to
impact him? And I think people are still chasing that

(17:59):
season from a few years ago of him where everything
broke right and the touchdown total was high. I just
don't see that happening. And the second guy for me
on my list is David Johnson, who was already mentioned
on this podcast. And you want to talk about done
watching him try to run the football last year, it
was done. Back injuries are tough. I just I don't
get this one, man. I really don't like I talk
about talk about trying to live in the past. The

(18:20):
only thing worse than this is everybody's still trying to
go back to Josh Gordon's one season and trying to
relive that and make that happen like this is the
most member berries thing we could possibly do. And yes,
David Johnson had some incredible fantasy moments, and I get it.
It was special, it was awesome. But but what about
them trading everything they traded for him? Doesn't that tell
you that they plan on using him a ton. They're
gonna they're gonna try like like you could. I think

(18:42):
Arizona tried to use him a ton last year, and
he was good when they use him. He was a
top ten fantasy running back while he was healthy, while
Chase Edmonds was an RP one A couple of weeks
too when they used him. I think it's it's you know,
the offense lends itself to that too, So I want
to put that out there. So my whole point is this, Yes,
they're gonna try to use him. I have real concerns
about the whole makeup of the Texans right now in

(19:03):
terms of the offense and knowing and seeing what I
saw last year David Johnson on the field, I just
think it's a really difficult investment to make. All Right, Yates,
what do you think arts David Johnson? Do you have
any problems with either of those two? I'll touch on
Earth's really quick. I think that I definitely get the
argument that you're having to pay up for zach Ertz,
and the path for him to return value on that

(19:25):
is very difficult. Right. The only argument that I can
see in his favor is that Alshon Jeffrey seems like
he's on a path to start this season on the pup.
And so if that's the case, then you're talking about
a bunch of targets that have opened up, and I
think that zach Ertz is going to see seven to
eight targets a game. You know, at the beginning of
the season, which he's going to be a value at

(19:46):
that point, then can you potentially trade him at that point?
You know, that's a whole other conversation, But so I
think that's the that's the argument and the tension with
zach Ertz right now. But I definitely get hit what
Joe is saying that there is a definite path that
zach Ertz does not return value for you, especially when
you have to pay up and there are so many
other enticing options behind him. As for David Johnson, he

(20:10):
was on my list guys, So I totally agree with
Joe here that this is a guy that I just
do not want any part of. This is a guy
that I think, you know, from what he put on
display last season, he just did not look like himself.
And when I have to make that decision, I'm sitting,
you know, in my draft, and I'm sitting there staring
a few of these options that around that same range

(20:31):
in the face, and I go, I can have this guy,
or I can have David Johnson, who comes with a
ton of question marks. And I don't see a true
ceiling because I don't the path for David Johnson to
have a true ceiling is for him to be the
pass catcher in this backfield, and Duke Johnson's still there,
so you know, I don't I don't think that he's
going to be utilized that way. So I don't think
there's a true ceiling here. And if you're not going

(20:53):
to be able to take the chance on someone who
has the ceiling to get into the top twelve running backs,
then you know, you're just kind of wasting a pick.
In my opinion, Where are you gonna feel comfortable rolling
David Johnson out each week? I don't think so. So
zach Ertz was my number two. Actually, we're just gonna
skip me again. He was my number two. Look at
that I am. Look at us together out on Earth's
big time for all the reasons I already mentioned. Extraordinarily

(21:15):
inefficient one point seven oh fantasy points per target over
the last ten years is just dreadful. When you look
at the rest of the list of all the tight
ends ahead of him, he is way down there. He's
below Dallas Godard as well. So we're gonna skip best me. Yates,
you mentioned that David Johnson was one years, so we're
gonna skip one of yours. This time, just give us
one more name. Bobby's just letting us. He's giving us
the stage today, He's letting us shine tags is on here,

(21:36):
he choose the scenery, talks forever about all kinds of things.
You know, how great Aaron Rodgers is and blah blah,
you know all that stuff. This is our time, Kyle,
here we go. I'm gonna go with a very similar
argument to Joe's argument there with David Johnson. It's Todd Gurley. Guys,
Todd is probably are that I am going. Todd Gurley
is probably a guy who I am going to have

(21:57):
no shares of in re draft leeks this year unless
he just falls drastically. You know, if I'm if I'm
in a league with eleven other people and they all
have the same mentality that I'm not going to draft
Todd Gurley and he falls a couple of rounds, I'll
take him. But we're taught. Everything looks great for Todd
Gurley from a projection standpoint if you remove the fact
that he's dealing with arthritis in his knee, always has

(22:18):
always had, you know, injuries, whatever. If you just remove
that and you talk about his opportunity here in this
Atlanta Falcons offense. Yeah, I think we'd be drafting him
as a top five running back like he can put
up incredible numbers if he was truly healthy. Is no
no, no no, hold on, hold on, Nope. The issue is
that he's not fully healthy and he never will be.

(22:41):
I don't think he's ever going to be back to
the place that we saw him with the Rams a
couple of years ago, finishing his back to back rby once.
It's not going to happen. And I think that if
he was going to be to that place, the Rams
wouldn't have taken a ton of dead money to cut
him and to move on from him this offseason. So
man Todd Gurley again, I think from a projection standpoint,
and if you're looking at his opportunity, everything looks great

(23:03):
and some people are going to be sucked into that.
But he's someone who I just don't I don't want
any part of. In twenty twenty, they took a ton
of dead money because they signed Jared Goff to like
a one billion dollar contract, one of the worst starting
quarterbacks in the NFL. Todd Gurley was dealing with arthritis
in his knee in college and then he comes out
in twenty seventeen the number one Fantasy football running back.

(23:23):
Twenty eighteen, dealing with the arthritis numbers one Fantasy football
running back back. In twenty sixteen, he was dreadful three
point two yards per attempt. And the reason why is
the offensive line in Los Angeles was among the worst
in the league. Same thing happened last year, and so
he struggled. They didn't use him in third downs because
they were like, oh, we're gonna take it easy on
him because it was knee. In the second half, they realized,
oh he can handle it. We're gonna give him the work.

(23:44):
And he was very good again even despite a bad
offensive line. Now he goes to a better offensive line,
he goes to a team who's going to pass in
the ball. He's on a one year contract that they're
just going to run him into the ground. And this
is one of the more talented running backs in football,
even with his knee problems. How many games as he
missed in the five year career that he's had, he
missed three in his rookie season. Besides that, he missed

(24:04):
one in twenty seventeen, two and twenty eighteen one in
twenty nineteen. That's nothing. That's one of the most durable
running backs in football. I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I want
to jump in here. Okay, you're the tie breaker then,
because I've got time. Burly right now is my RB
twelve ahead of Miles Sanders. I gotta say, Kyle, it's
you know, I didn't want to do this with you
the first time out here, but I have to be

(24:25):
on Bobby's side here, yea is you know. Don't take
it personally, Kyle, Please don't. I love you very much,
but I think you have to take the risk here
because the other thing that disappeared were those receptions, and
that's not gonna be the case in Atlanta. They're gonna
throw the nobody throws the ball more than them anyway,
like they're gonna throw the ball to Todd Gurley again.
I keep going back to this. I love the one

(24:46):
year show me contracts in the NFL. These, you know,
these are what guys roll into is their last chance,
especially running backs, to go get paid. And I think
for Gurley it's a unique situation where you're right. Kyle
is definitely right. There's risk there, There's no doubt about it,
and part of it does matter where you get him.
Would I take him over four net? And I don't know,
like that's get sticy. But then you got guys like
Chris Carson and you know, Levan Bell in the offense

(25:08):
he's in and Melvin Gordon in a new offense like
those are all questions to me too, like you know
that that I'll take. None of those guys have what
the upside of Todd Gurley can be, So I will
go with Todd Gurley. Now I will say this too,
I feel much better about taking Todd Gurley if I'm
a ZKE owner or a CMC owner, or say so,
if you're gonna get him, which is kind of where

(25:28):
he's going adp y. So I think it kind of
makes sense that if you have one of those, you know,
top elite running backs that you just love, it's much
easier to go take a shot on Todd Gurley. Whereas
you know, if you have somebody that you're in like with,
then I think a Todd Gurley pick is potentially cumbersome
to you. So I will take the risk on Todd Gurley.
I took there was last year on Todd Gurley. It

(25:48):
was much more expensive last year to do it, It
is much cheaper to do it this year. So I'm
just gonna double down on it. Yeah baby, Yep, Sorry, Kyle,
I'm gonna send you an edible arrangement because I feel
like this is not the way I wanted to get
off on the first front week. I won't say no
to that. I guess, I guess the question is like,
you're looking at these guys in this kind of range.
So I'm just gonna throw like, yeah, Melvin Melvin Gordon?

(26:10):
Would you rather have Melvin Gordon? Would you rather have
Todd Gurley? I want him both, man, I want time.
He's my number twelve. I've got Melvin Gordon number fourteen.
I would take Gurly over. What about someone like well,
we mentioned Chris Carson. He comes with his own concerns. Well, so,
I mean Carson's not healthy either, Right, puts the ball
on the ground A ton, I mean, hide is there
God Forbiddy? Starts fumbling again. Levon Bell, I mean Adam Gates. Just,

(26:33):
I mean I can't. I just I can't do that
to myself, right, I can't do it. I'm taking Gurley
over Eckler and Clyde Edwards hilarin, I know that's a
debate for another day. Yeah, that Kyle's going to do
an hour by himself about why that's that's not happening.
While I'm piling onto Yates, I just want to let
everybody know who's listening to the show, that snow cones
are superior to coffee. It was wondering what I was

(26:55):
wondering when you were going to bring this up. Wait
a bit, what snow How are you comparing snow cones
and coffee? Because Yates loves coffee and he was making
fun of me for liking snow cones. He called me
six years old, snowcones are delicious coffee tastes like dog turns.
He puts out a tweet he's talking about like snow cones,
and I was like, why are you talking about snow
cones right now? Are you six years old? Like? Who

(27:17):
eats snow cone? And then I found out that this
is apparently like a big thing. That's the big thing.
Tounds have like snow cone places. Well, my neighbor got
for her kid's birthday last year. They got one of
those trucks that showed up on the driveway where we
all got to like make her exactly. Yeah, dude, that
sounds great for a kid's birthday party. Honestly, that was
pretty awesome though. But but but they also had like
the boozy version for the adults too, so like you

(27:38):
can spike it, which was again, it's like everyone's having
a great party. Hey, hey, don't do that. Oh whatever,
do whatever you want. I don't care. I'm three snow
cones deep right now. Snow Cones are amazing. We can
talk about this all day. That's what we're gonna keep moving,
all right, guys, Before we keep moving, I want to
stop for just a minute and say thanks to the
sponsor of today's show. Dynasty Owner. The best fantasy football

(28:01):
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(28:24):
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(28:48):
Dynasty owner dot com. Joe, I know you just came
to my defense, but you are a major jerk taking
z I'm using my number one right now. I'm not
saving it. I'm not taking any chance that somebody steals
my player, all right, And I know this is gonna
make people really, really mad. In fact, if you're easily triggered,
you might want to just skip ahead, like one or

(29:11):
two minutes. Because there's no way I'm drafting Patrick Mahomes
this year. There's no chance whatsoever that I'm drafting Patrick
Mahomes this year. And here's the reason why I'd rather
of Dak Prescott. And that's not just an ADP. That's
overall and Patrick Mahomes is going four rounds earlier. So
here's what it comes down to. Okay, I posted all
the numbers. I said, past attempts per game and Dak

(29:32):
Prescott was three higher. Well, he's really prepared for this.
Listen to him go. I said yards per attempt and
guess what Dak Prescott was the same. I said, rushing
touchdowns per game. Dak Prescott was triple over the last
four years. Interception rate. Okay, Patrick Mahomes is a little
bit better. Touchdown rate, very similar. And I said which
one would you rather have? And it was set. Sixty
eight percent of people voted for Dak Prescott, not knowing

(29:54):
it was Dak Prescott because of the increased volume and
because he runs the ball better than Mahomes. And then I, okay,
this guy's going four rounds later. I'm not drafting Patrick
Mahomes in the second round when he's my QB three.
Get out of here with that. Can I make one
caveat in super flex? This changes the conversation. You might
get body slam, so you better be careful. Well, I

(30:14):
bring it, bring it, sister, let's go any time when
you're ready to go. No, I would say this. I think, look,
you're making a really good argument, and your argument for
Prescott's very good. I mean, last year in twenty nineteen
Black Book, Dak Prescott was the best returnal investment quarterback
on the board. And I do the quarterback ball a ton.
He's got a much better offensive line, he's got better weapons.
They had the most yards per play of any offensive

(30:35):
football last year in terms of single quarterback leagues. I
totally get where you're coming from, and I think that
the bigger problem that you're not even mentioning is when
you reach for a Lamar or a Mahomes early, the
one thing you are doing is then you better have
a good plan and you better be really good in
terms of who you're picking up at wide receiver and
running back afterwards. That's a thing like you better have
a lot of confidence or a lack of confidence in

(30:56):
your league mates, one of the two or both in
order to pull all that off. And you can make
it work. I think you can in your casual football
leagues make that work. In super flex is a whole
different discussion, because you want that advantage of one of
those top quarterbacks if you can get it early, and
then if it's a PPR super flex, you have a
lot more maneuverability in terms of how many flexbots and
what else you're gonna do. So I just want to
put that cavey on there. I understand where you're coming from. Kyle.

(31:18):
How do you feel about it? Bobby? You're nuts? Man?
We the reason why, I mean, and you said to
take out ADP like you just have Dak Prescott ranked
over Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, yeah, I do. Yeah. So the
difference here, yeah, I don't know if I go that far.
The difference here and what like you left out one

(31:38):
crucial stat is that Patrick Mahomes has hit fifty passing
touchdowns before and he has a very very good chance
to hit that ridiculous number again this year. No he doesn't.
I'm not saying it's okay. So you're saying that he
has a chance of being top five and touchdown rate again,

(32:01):
which is I'm not. I'm not saying that. Everyone you
knew he was gonna plumb at fifteen touchdowns last year
because of his touchdown right, and that's exactly what happened now,
I man, I get it. He had the injury as well,
but he was twenty four touchdowns fewer because guess what,
he's dropped him miss time four percent touchdown rate that
everybody expected because that's Tom Brady's touchdown rate. That's a
little bit lower than Aaron Rodgers' career touchdown. Right. Is

(32:24):
Patrick Mahomes potentially historically great? Yes, But even if he is,
that still means we're looking at a career five point
five or six point no touchdown, right, not the eight
point six that he had to have to have that
ridiculous season with. Like, what I'm saying is that I'm
not projecting Patrick Mahomes with fifty times. I would be
ridiculous to sit down and project that, right, But what
I'm saying is that he has the chance because he's

(32:45):
done it before. I think Dak Prescott has a better
chance at fifty touchdowns because he is going to throw
six hundred passes. Well, Patrick Mahomes throws five hundred and twenty.
Because they're gonna be up so often. Why don't you
guys put your snow cones where your mouth is and
make a little wager here and who has more passing
touchdowns straight backs? I'm like Loki on this show. That's

(33:06):
what everyone brings me, and I'm chaos. I'm the guy
who comes in and serves the pot and then leaves
because I don't have to do what the aftermat though,
loser of the bet, since Tags isn't here and he's
never gonna hear this, probably loser of the bet has
to give Tags a surprise, good game slap in the butt.
I would do that. I would do that regardless. The
look on his face would be awesome because Tags is

(33:27):
just you can always get a great response out of him. Anyway,
we gotta keep moving. So Joe, it's back to you
for two. Who'd he happened? I'm sure I was still
trying to get that image out of my head. I'm
gonna go with one or two. Here we're going back
to him two. Yeah, you're back to back. Is no
one stealing yours? All right, I'm gonna go, you know,
piss off a lot of people too here and I'm
gonna go with Raheem Mostert and what Here we go?

(33:47):
You're ready? Here we go. See we were friends before it.
Now our enemies see that. I just think whenever you
have a guy who's been on five different teams in
five years, there's something that that's a red flag about.
And you're telling me that five different organizations missed on
this guy. You're telling me that this is a dude
who again no spring Chicken, mind you. I mean, he's
gonna be twenty eight years old this year. And it's

(34:10):
I get it. Everybody loves the Kyle Shanahan offense. I
totally understand that. I love it too. Everything's you know,
sunshine and roses. But you also look at the track
record of the teams that have lost the Super Bowl
in the last decade or so, especially in fashion, where
they either got blowed out or lost in a crucial,
you know, horrible way, kind of like you know, the
forty Niners out of lead and blew it. It's not good.
The only two guys who came back in the last

(34:31):
decade and had good seasons after losing a Super Bowl
both happened to have won super Bowls before that happened.
And that was Russell Wilson and Tom Brady. So Tom
Brady doesn't even count. You just take him and throw
him away. And Russell Wilson very much, you know, in
that caliber of MVP talent. So the rest of the guys, Man,
you look at Cam Newton's post year, it was a
terrible twenty sixteen for him. You look at the year

(34:51):
Matt Ryan and them lost the Super Bowl. Everything regress there,
and I think when you're looking at that, I'm gonna
throw Jimmy Garoppolo on the pile too right now, because
I don't want anything to do with the forty nine
ers offense period. I'm out. I'm out hardcore on the
forty nine ers this year. I don't like the weapons.
I think everything broke right for them at the right time. Well,
they also played the easiest strength of schedule last year.
They also did, and that's not going to be the
case this year. And I'll tell you what, one more

(35:13):
little salvo here too. That Deebo Samuel injury does not
help things. I'm hoping he's going to be ready, like
everybody says, earlier than later, but we've all seen those
things turned into later far too often, and I think
that really hurts this team. And I'm I'm just trying
to live in the realistic scenario here. And you go
back and you look at the track record Jared Goff
after the Super Bowl again, I can go on and

(35:33):
on with this and people can say, oh, it's a
one off, and I was like, no, it's a distinct
trend and it's very difficult to get to the mountaintop
and then everyone thinks, Oh, you're gonna be fine. I mean, hell,
I can even go back as far as the last
time the forty nine ers were in a super Bowl
with a young quarterback named Colin Kaepernick and a young
head coach that everybody was loving so much and everything
looks so great and a great defense and oh they're
going to be in it again year and year out.

(35:54):
No they weren't. These things happen sometimes, and most I
think is closer to that Siege Anderson pile of fun
fantasy football stories than he is to like the next
emerging superstar. And that's just, I think a fact we
have to learn to live with. I'm done. Now, what
do you think about Moster? Because I'm I'm I'm just
gonna take it easy. I know that everybody listens to

(36:16):
the show knows exactly what I think. I'm just gonna
pretend I didn't hear that I'm gonna have some coffee
here and sip on it. Well, well, Bobby Stews, here
you go. No, Bobby, I know that you're fuming, so
I will know. I'm just gonna really quick. I think
that I get I get the argument We've also seen
reports that Raheem Moster is working on adding more weight
to be able to withstand a heavier workload. And for
a speed running back who relies on you know, acceleration,

(36:39):
it's not great. Um, we've you know, we've seen reports
like that before. I definitely get Joe's argument that five
other teams missed on this guy. You know, No, I
don't think so. I think it's more so just a
product of the of the system and the scheme. You know,
he on one hundred and thirty seven attempts last year
had a five point six yards per carry. Five point
six is a very very hard mark to repeat year
after year. And so you know, if we're talking about

(37:01):
him then taking another step forward to hit around what
two hundred carries one hundred and seventy five, that's kind
of the point where he'd be Fantasy relevant, right because
he's not much of a factor in the passing game,
So then that's kind of where you need him to be.
At that point, his you know, five point six yards
per carry, it's not going to be there. So I
do have him. I have him at RB twenty seven

(37:22):
right now, which is his ADP is twenty six, So
I'm right there in line with Adi Kareem Hunt, who's
at twenty eight over him right right someday. Yeah, you know,
like Raheem Moster doesn't have the ceiling because Kyle Shanahan
likes to divvy up the work in his running back
So another issue. Kareem Hunt has potential standalone value as
a PPR, you know, asset. But then also he's a

(37:42):
league winner if Nick Chubb goes down. So I totally
totally get your argument. I just think that, you know,
there's too much going against Raheem Moster here, but I
am in line with adp So if he falls a
little bit pass set, I'll take him as my RB
three or four. Here's his ceiling. His ceiling is what
he accomplished in the only eight games he started, one
of the best eight, one of the top five eight

(38:04):
game stretches in Fantasy football last year. That's his ceiling.
If he can repeat that, he's a top five running back. Yeah.
If Peyton Hills could have repeated it, he would have
been on Madden the next year. Again. Yeah, but I
mean you're talking about how Patrick Mahomes has done it before,
and so he's more likely well, Raheem Moster was incredible.
The only reason people didn't realize it is because part
of it happened during the playoffs, which, mind you, is

(38:25):
against more difficult teams. And guess what, Tevin Coleman came
back who was still getting the ball Raheem Moster because
he was so dang good. He's the starter in Shanahan's offense,
even if he doesn't catch passes. Look, I'm not saying
he's gonna be a top five running back. I'm saying
that's his ceiling and he is a very good bet
to outproduce his ADP. So you would take him over
Hunt too. I love Kareem Hunt, and I'm taking him

(38:47):
over Hunt. Yeah, I've got Raheem Moster is my number
twenty words rut there. I mean, a couple of years ago,
Kareem Hunt was basically a top five overall pick. Yeah,
and he would be if Nit Chubb would go away,
He's good. Well, Nib's not going away. But I think
there's enough for everybody here in this offense. Personally, I
just do it's from a fantasy perspective, at least in
terms of points on a weekly basis. I think there's

(39:07):
enough here from Karee Hunt from the start and another
guy too, who's going to turn I think this year
into a nice contract somewhere else. He was a good
citizen last year. I expect him to. You know, Look,
we could have the Chub conversation another day too. I mean,
Chub's terrific. But that Kareem Hunt presents, man, I think
people need to start accounting for it because he is
the goods man. Imagine Hunt with that landed next year

(39:28):
after tid g. If there's like there's like two landing spots,
that's one of them that I would just love to
see him enough. Yes, that would be beautiful whinning it. Well,
what's your next one? Joe? I think you only gave
one right, No, I gave you and I gave you
Jimmy g I'm just out on I'm out on the
forty nine ers. And again this is more of a
super flex thing like I'm looking at we're talking about
some of those guys on the board late later quarterbacks.

(39:49):
I would rather take a shot on Cam Newton over him.
I'd rather take it. I probably would even take rivers
because again the track record, you know, I look at
the track record Rivers is gonna throw up for four
thousand yards every single year like that is? That is
just a lot? Did you guys just hear that thunder?
I did? I did my brother because I said I
was low key and the thunder all of a sudden
thor is coming to get me. Now, that's that's where

(40:10):
we're at. But I'll get out of it this in time.
He'll never catch me, I promise. But yeah, those are
my two guys, So go ahead, you go, all right,
I'm taking this one. Yes, I'm sorry, man. I know
he's on your list. He's probably your number one, but
you know what, eat it. Evan Ingram's my next guy. Baby, Yeah,
he's on my list. Yeah? Where is he? Was he
your number one? That I get you? No? Four? Oh man,
what a bummer? All right, why don't you explain why

(40:31):
you dislike Evan Ingram? So you bring up a guy
and then I make your point? Four? Yes? Yeah, yeah,
what do you want to work? I don't want to
do it. No, I've just ranted on Evan Ingram enough
that I want your perspective as well. I did on
an episode where it was just tags and I no, yeah,
I'll just mention it briefly that there are plenty of
things working against Evan Ingram this season for him to
return value of where he's being drafted. I think I

(40:53):
mean ECR six last time I checked. He's like in
this upper echelon of these tight ends. And you're got
a guy who's coming off a foot surgery that happened
in December. You have and he's cutting now and he's
looking fine, but that's still a factor. You have a
very crowded receiving corps where all these guys are going
to demand targets, where you have Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepherd,

(41:15):
Golden Tate, sae Quon Barkley out of the backfield. Now
you're adding in, you know, and then trying to find
enough work for Evan Ingram to be a factor. And
then and he struggled to stay healthy. We're talking about
a guy who hasn't who hasn't been able to stay
healthy the past couple of seasons, and those are all
concerns when you're factoring in his draft stock. If he
was you know, ECR tight end twelve and he was,
you know, being drafted in ADP around there, I would

(41:37):
probably be on board at least taking the flyer because
he has the talent to be a top five Fantasy
tight end. We've seen it, he's done it. However, when
he's being he doesn't. I don't know if he has
the talent. If he gets the volume, he can be
a top five guy. But he's not getting the volume.
With Sterling Shepherd, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, sae Quon Barkley,
sexy offense, isn't it, and they improve the line year

(42:00):
over year. I don't know. I think the Giants are
gonna be better than the Jets this year. Oh that's
a hot taker, don't I don't know. I don't know.
Both teams are so bad. I don't really care either.
But here's what it comes down to you. Well, I'm
setting the bar low, but I'm saying I think the
Giants are gonna have a better record than the Jets
when all said and done. Evan Ingram had one hundred
and fifteen targets his rookie season because Odell Beckham had

(42:20):
forty one because he was hurt. Brandon Marshall had thirty
three because he got hurt. Sterling Shepard only played ten
games because he got hurt. Their number one wide receiver
was Roger Lewis. They had Shane Vereen catching third most
targets on the team. Mop was that the year they
both got hurt in the same game too, right, Odell?
And I remember I was I was out at dinner
with my family and I saw something happening like the

(42:41):
on the TV and the bar area, and they're like,
oh yeah, when the Giants receivers is out. Like a
couple of minutes later, it was another one. I was like,
oh my god, it was everybody in the same game.
That's brutal man. So Ingram is not getting one hundred
and fifteen targets in this offense, and he's been one
of the most inefficient tight ends in fantasy football since
he joined three years ago. Not happening this year. Yeah,
it's how low do you have him? Because I've got

(43:02):
him outside my top twelve. Wow? Wow, I do as well.
Let me pull that up. That's shocking that you guys
have him outside of tight end One's that's the bigger
surprise for me, not that you don't like him, but
you don't like him as a tight end one. He's
easy rs tight end six. So are your last three
tight ends. Oh, let's see, I've got John U Smith,
Rob Gronkowski, Hayden Hurst and no a fan ahead of him.

(43:22):
I being fant I like a lot my Gronk. I
don't know what we're gonna get. Mean, Gronk is such
a wild card. I have no idea. Who are yours? Kyle?
I have Hooper at tight end twelve, Gisiki I have
at eleven, and then Gronk at he's on my list.
I mean we could just kind of mention him for
a second, like I don't I don't get this. I
don't get this at all, Like I'm waiting for somebody
to explain this to me. I feel like this is

(43:43):
one of those like every year we have to go
through this Trey Burton syndrome, or like there's some tight
end that everybody wants to make happen and it just
it never happens, like some guys just it just doesn't
happen with And I feel like Giseki is that guy?
Why is he on your tight end one list? I'm curious. Yeah,
it's looking at the opportunity in the offense, and so
I think that you know you have DeVante Parker, who
will of course be a factor. Matt Burrita. I think

(44:03):
Ken siphon away some of those targets, but I don't
have him necessarily projected for you know, more than fifty
five targets, and then looking at Preston Williams, I have
him for over one hundred targets, Albert Wilson in the seventies,
and then Gassicki's looking at ninety plus targets based on
just pure volume and opportunity. So based on this offense
and the fact that I still think they took a

(44:24):
lot of steps forward and they're gonna be much much
improved from last year, but you're still talking about them
needing to pass the ball quite a ton. So, and
Gassicki is one of the most athletic tight ends that
we've ever seen come into the NFL. He's made highlight plays. Yeah,
he's pretty impressive, but then again, the efficiency is not there.
I think Preston Williams is a lot better than we're
heving him credit for. Well, that was gonna be my
argument if you want to hammer about efficiency, like I

(44:45):
don't know how like he's the most inefficient and not
even I mean he had eighty nine targets last year,
and he called fifty one of them like that didn't
get it done. Yeah, And I'll just say this, like
to put this into perspective too, Like the difference between
my tight end eleven and fifteen is nine points r
you know, so like they're these guys are right. Well,
that's like RPV in Black Book, the same thing. It's

(45:06):
like there's a percentage point difference between the guy, which
means that don't overpay for any of them because none
of them are going to move the needle, like you know,
when you're down to that grouping. You know, That's that's
why RPV is an effective thing, because it shows you,
like you know a certain point, you know, certain guys
and certain positions aren't going to move the needle, So
why are you overdrafting them just to fill a roster slot?
That's crazy. Yeah. I also love Albert Wilson coming back,

(45:29):
Jekim Grants coming back extraordinarily fast. So I just think
it's sicky doesn't get as many targets this year. But
I get it, Yates. I also get it what you're saying, Nah, Joe,
back to you, Yates, why don't you give us two
and we'll probably get back around to you for one
more after this, so sure, yeah, I'll We've mentioned him
with Evan Ingram, it's Sterling Shepherd, and it's just based
on the fact, I mean, his ADP is super low,

(45:49):
so you know, it's not like it's one of these
guys who's in the first round that I'm saying that
I just don't want to touch, you know, But even
looking at where he's being drafted right now, Sterling Shepherd
is a player that I just don't want on any
of my rosters. We've seen him be a factor and
like have very high target totals in the games that
he's on the field. However, then again, same arguments for

(46:10):
Evan Ingram, that very crowded wide receivering corps and the
concussions are real concerned with Sterling Shepherd. I think if
he has one more we could be talking about him
missing significant time this season. So that's just a very
legitimate concern. He's someone who I'm just willing to let
someone else draft. Sure, all right, who do you have
for your next guy? Yeah, I'll go with Keenan Allen,
And I've talked about Keenan Allen before that on this

(46:31):
podcast that you know, you're looking at the offense completely
changing philosophies, and the target totals are are gonna come
crashing down. And so with Keenan Allen not being a
guy who is very touchdown you know, dependent for he
was on my list too, same reasoning. Yeah, you know,
like he's not someone that you can project for high
touchdown totals regularly season after season. He needs to be

(46:53):
doing it on the back of one hundred and fifty targets,
and he's been extremely consistent, he's been great. This is
not just me, you know, bagging on keen and Allen
for no reason. I like him the player, but as
we look at this offense and trying to figure out
where the targets are going to come from, and that
those are going to come crashing down, so then he
needs to be making up for it with high touchdown totals.
And you're talking about Tyrod Taylor who's never finished with

(47:14):
more than twenty passing touchdowns in a season. I just
don't want any part of Keenan Allen, especially at his
ZCR or ADP. Everything that Kyle said is one spot on.
It's it's why, it's why, keen Allen's on my list too,
And you know, let's also forget that there could be
a transition to another quarterback and I don't even know
what that's going to mean for Keenan Allen too, if
Herbert ends up taking over at some point or for

(47:34):
the last six games or what have you. So there's
a lot of questions there, and the problem is like, you, look,
you are getting a discount on Keenan Allen, but like
do you want to take him over the upside of
guys like Davante Parker and Courtland Sutton and guys like that.
I was like, I don't know if I can wrap
my mind around that, Like that's that's a hard part
for me to digest there. And I think Kyle's spot
on there because when you're when you're lowering the volume

(47:55):
on a guy that is volume based in terms of
his value, that's a very scary proposition. So I think
that's something you really need to be aware of. With
Keenan Allen in twenty twenty, that's fair. Yeah, and he
doesn't score many touchdowns either. ECR Wide Receiver twenty four though,
Oh baby, am I gonna get some chairs at Keenan
Alan because he's a wide receiver one every year. So
what if he drops five spots, He's still way out

(48:16):
producing his ecgar. So I'm all his ADP is nineteen.
I was gonna says it eighteen. When I'm looking at
right he pr stings. Yeah. Oh man, that's interesting. So
the experts are like a full round and a half
two rounds lower. He's ahead of A. J. Brown, He's
ahead of Yeah, Sutton, Shark, Parker, all those guys. Lockett,
that's that grouping. The first guy that I'm going to

(48:36):
avoid here, it's Courtland Sutton. And the reason why talk
about efficiency? What more does this guy have added all
these weapons? Man, he's not getting twenty four targets again, awesome,
less focus on him even better. I don't know, man,
You bring in Jerry Judy maybe the best rookie wide
receiver we've seen since the Mike Evans class. Look, I

(48:58):
love Jerry Judy. I think his whole Denver Bronco offense
is fascinating to me, Like I can't wait to see.
And they're gonna run the ball so much. They brought
him Melvin Gordon too, to go with Phil. Yeah, but
you know what the funny thing is like last year
you watched and they would literally every single play with
Joe Flacco, they would tick down to one before they
hyped the ball, just to kind of sit on the
clock as long as they could. He was fascinating to watch.
It was almost comical, like you gotta set your watch too.

(49:18):
It's like every play here we go, you can drain
the milk the clock and milk the clock and slowly
just drained game clock away. But I mean, geez, I mean,
I thought cold Sutton was so good, and last year,
with having to play with Joe Flacco most of the year,
it was terrible. And then he's better than Drew Locke. Well,
I was gonna say everyone's all forget it. He's gonna
be terrible with Lock, but he wasn't terrible with Locke.
I don't know. I look at Sutton so far, and look,

(49:40):
I'm not saying he's an all world guy necessarily, but
I'll take him as a wide receiver three or four.
That mean I'm perfectly comfortable there. But yeah, man, I'd
take him as my wide receiver three you kidney, But
he's going as a high end wide receiver too. No.
Twenty n so I think you can get him at three.
I got him into as you know, as a four
last year, and I played him all the time. He's

(50:01):
just one of my personal favorites. I just can't quit him.
I like sudden. So can you name the wide receiver
that finished second in terms of targets on their team
last year? Tim Patrick? Probably Tim Patrick was right there.
It was Deshan Hamilton barely over Tim Pattrick. I mean
that's how he was competing with it. Now he's competing
with Jerry Judy and kJ Hamdler. No, I'm not doing that. Yeah,

(50:22):
but they have a real offensive coordinator now. So I'm
just saying, okay, that could change, like we could, we
could finally, you know, start to you know, change the
type of plays we're running and things like that. When
they had flat it was just rual. But look, I
understand what you're saying. It's point taken that there are
there or more options now. And you know, I would
be more concerned if he was like a key now
and guy was all volume. But he was so efficient,

(50:43):
like he would catch five of six balls and a
touchdown and you go, oh awesome, my god's great, Like
that's exactly. I want that on my team, all right, Joe,
what do you have left? Two left? All right? Yeah,
I'll Baldy's off. Now. This first one here for me
is tough because I really like this guy and I'm
rooting for him. I like him as a dude. I'm
just concerned it's James Conner. Yeah, I'd love to have

(51:03):
the Pittsburgh Steeler running back. We all know historically it's
a really good spot to be owning, but it's it's
difficult for me to get in the Connor business. I'm
gonna put the caffey on on this one too, where
it's you know, as my third running back. If somehow
and the draft was like, you know, skewing a certain way,
I'd be like, oh, oh cool. But if I had
to rely on him as my second, I'd be really
worried because I'm just concerned does he hold up over

(51:25):
a whole season. And I was a guy that had
him a lot in the year that Levy on Bell
did not play, and it was incredible, you know, boon,
because you got him for free and he was very
good for the first at least ten games to show
of the season. And then the other guy is again
a guy that I I might take some shots on,
but I really shouldn't that I should yell at myself
for doing it. It's will Fuller because I'm drafted will
Fuller this year. Yeah, I know. It's like I feel

(51:47):
the same way. It's like I want to do it,
but like I'm saying this on the podcast in hopes
that I will listen to it and I will remind
myself at some point, don't do this. That's a stupid thing.
Don't do this. You're gonna hate yourself come October November.
You hate yourself for doing this. So that's why I'm
saying it out loud. I think it's helpful. It's like
therapy here. Yeah, it's what do you think? Are you
drafting either of these guys? No, Connor was on my list,

(52:09):
so and it really comes down to his health and
the fact that they just the Steelers keep investing in
backup running backs and I think any thing good point, dude. Yeah,
I think Anthony McFarland is going to be more of
a factor, even though they want to rely on one
running back. I think that they have to look at
Connor realistically this season and say we have to keep
his workload light if he's going to be playing all

(52:30):
sixteen games. So you know, he's a very, very talented back.
It hurts me to say that, but you know, it's
just one that but that the other side of it
is that his ADP is super low. And it does
come down to what Joe said, where where are you
getting him as far as a roster construction. Are you
getting him as your RB two, RB three? You know,
I'm getting him in super late in Dynasty startups because

(52:50):
no one wants to touch him in Dynasty, and I'm
getting him as my RB four or five in some
places I will definitely take that. But like in a redraft,
wouldn't you rather have the stability of David mot Memory? Oh? Absolutely?
Levy on Bell and James Connor are here nineteen and
twenty on Fantasy Pros. In terms of on the PPR side, yeah,
I think Bell is the safer play, but I think

(53:10):
Connor has the upside, and that's where I struggle, Like,
I think I think the floor is better Levy on
Bell because I think he's going to lead the Jets
and receptions this year. Right, Who anybody else want to
make that bet? I don't think so right, nobody else
wants to take that on. But it's it's difficult because
you know, you gotta kind of put the personal stuff aside.
Like you love those Pittsburgh Steeler offense when Roethlisberger is healthy.

(53:32):
You love what the running back position yields in that offense.
You love the story of James Connor, and he says
a good dude, But like you have to be realistic
and say, as a running back too, it's questionable. As
a flex running back, sign me up, like I'm all
about upside there of guys like him, guys like Kareem Hunt.
Those are the guys I want as my flex rbs
because those are the guys that when I play them
on bye weeks, hopefully they're healthy and you know I

(53:53):
can shuffle them around and their upside is they're gonna
have RB one style games, even though it might not
be an RB one. That's fair. All right, here's my
last guy. And actually it's like ten guys. Don't draft
the forty nine Ers defense because you're gonna have to
draft like three rounds early. Don't draft the Steelers, the Ravens,
the Patriots, the Bill if you're drafting any other DST

(54:15):
besides the Eagles. We aren't friends anymore because the Eagles
the first three weeks are going up against Washington, the
Rams and Jared Goff, and then the Cincinnati Bengals and
then the forty nine Ers. Oh and then Big Ben
who led the league in passing interceptions last year after
before taking a full year off. I mean, the first
five weeks of the Eagle schedule. I am certain they

(54:36):
will be a top three DST through five weeks of
the season, and then that point we're streaming anyway, right,
So go out and get this defense. This is basically free.
They're adp right now is undrafted. I'm taking the Eagles everywhere,
and there's no chance I'm reaching for the forty nine Ers, Steelers,
Ravens or Pats. I completely agree. It's it's tough, you know,
It's it's hard to support. Like the Ravens defense is

(54:57):
so good on all three levels. That's the one where
if I'm gonna and they just keep adding talent to
right and they just keep out like it's I mean,
they had a good draft too. It's like, oh man,
like that's the one that if I'm gonna reach, I'll
reach for them. But and I'm somebody who owned the
Pats everywhere last year, not because I'm a pass fan,
but because I thought that defense was very good at
the end of last year, and people didn't realize, Like
when you shot out Patrick Mahomes in the championship game

(55:18):
for a half that spoke volumes to be about how
good that defense was. And then they went up and
basically held the Rams to under ten points that one like,
and everyone was like, oh, yeah, they're like a free defense.
The next year in fantasy and I took him because
they were free when the last round of every Guys
was like, oh, I'll take the Patriots and nobody else
wants to take them, and they always were a turnover defense.
But I think that's the thing it's so difficult to repeat.
The Ravens are the one that I pause on Guys,

(55:39):
just because you look at all three levels there and
I'm like, oh, man, that that's a really good situation
there in Baltimore. All right, Yates, you get the last one, buddy,
make it count. I'll go with Cooper Cup. Looking at
Cooper Cup just where his ECR right now is seventeen.
His ADP is wide receiver twelve and do not are
you serious? Yep, I do not see a path here.

(56:01):
I mean, check me on that, but I do not
see a path here for Cooper Cup to return that
value nowhere close. He was the number four Fantasy Football
wide receiver last season, I know, but he did it
on the back of you know, before the offensive philosophy changed,
where you know, weeks one through nine. I think nine
was their bye week. I think so that's when they
changed things up and they went to heavy twelfth personnel
and then we saw Robert Woods just ascend and Cooper

(56:24):
Cup was in the wide receiver thirties over that timeframe.
I do not I do not see a way, a
path anything unless the Rams change their offense again. But
I haven't seen any indication this offseason that they're willing
to do that. I don't see a path that Cooper
Cup returns either wide receiver twelve or wide receiver seventeen
value this season. By the way, that was not me saying, well,

(56:44):
he was wide receiver four, so he's a wide receiver one.
In my book, I cannot believe his ADP is wide
receiver twelve. I've gotten twenty two man, and I feel
weird about that. I mean I get it. I get
it from like the fans perspective, where Cooper Cup has
been amazing for again, we can look back and we
can say he was amazing for a stratch, yeah exactly.
We can look back and we could say, well, you know, yeah,

(57:07):
he was the wider sciper four last year. The previous
year before that, he was great. You know, he's just
been consistently such a good Fantasy football wide receiver. But
then I think, for if you didn't own Cooper Cup
last year in fantasy, you're still you didn't notice that
he fell off a cliff, right. If you owned him,
you knew that his production was not the same as
what it was the first half of the season. So

(57:28):
I think that's part of it. I think that people
are still looking at Cooper Cup with you know, these
rosy rose colored glasses. That's the phrase, right whatever, you
know what that sounds like. It sounds like, you know,
like when Chris Farley is trying to insult somebody, you
can shut up with you rosy rose colored shup. Yeah,
I'll have to look that one up because I definitely
bought to that one. But you know who Chris Farley

(57:50):
is Yates. I do know who Chris Farley is, Thank
you very much. Yeah, are you? Are you throwing shade
about movie references, Bobby? I don't think that's what I
was just throwing shade about Yates being so young. That's
the only one that snl is the only one that
Bobby can actually throw a shade on. So okay, I
hit everybody won on that reference. So awesome. Yeah, I
you know Cooper Cup man, I'm just I'm avoiding him

(58:11):
at all costs. This here. So he went from playing
literally the most snaps in football over the last over
the first twelve weeks to all of a sudden, oh no,
seventy two percent, twenty nine percent, sixty one percent, sixty
one percent. What were the rams doing? Is he done?
Or sounds like there was an injury He was hiding
too maybe And if that's the case, then I want him.
But if there was twenty nine percent, that had to

(58:32):
be an injury. Yeah, that's well. Here here's the thing,
this is a true story. Most of my wide receiving
corps last year were these three guys. It was Cooper
Cup Godwin and Cortland Sutton. It was good year. Those
are my three. And it was because of that grouping
that where I liked that soft middle of wide receiver two,
where you found guys that were you thought could have
wide receiver one games. Now, well God would end up

(58:54):
being a true wide receiver one when all is said
and done. So that absolutely worked out. But that was
all there, like all the data was there to support that.
And even though he was rising, like where you got
him ADP in June or July, was you know, two
rounds more expensive by the time you got into August,
And that's fair, Like I was still willing to pay that.
But I'm looking at this year and the same kind
of guys, like Calvin Ridley is that guy for me?

(59:14):
And I know we've had this conversation here a couple
of weeks ago on the show, but like, I'm looking
at that kind of thing and he's going right after
Cooper cup in Woods and I think I'd rather have
Ridley than both of them. Why don't you give us
the other two names? By the way, since you're obviously
going to nail three wide receivers again, who else do
you have? You said, Ridley, please say yes, Well, it's

(59:35):
it's definitely Calvin Ridley this year, he's He's that guy
that I think is going to become go from a
you know, a two to a low end one, kind
of like where Godwin in my mind was it's funny,
you're gonna laugh. But I think something was a rye
last year with that whole Cooper Cup in the second half.
Either it was an injury or just something was just
off there. And I would actually put Cooper Cup back
into the same conversation and that if you want to

(59:56):
pivot to Woods, I get that too, I understand, but
again I'm looking for high floor, high volume, and he
ken score touchdowns to Cooper Cup. That's the one thing
about him. It was like he can he can get
in the end zone, which is kind of surprising. And
the reason why I like it again this year is
because I don't think they have an answer at running back.
I think he's going to become kind of like they're
Julian Edelman Almos where that's how they're going to move

(01:00:17):
the football through Cooper Cup. And as long as they
have to do that, I think I still want him.
So like those are those are two guys that I'm
probably gonna have a lot of shares of again. Uh,
I don't know about the third one. I have to
think about that some more when we get into the
next show. Just make a djhark, Just make a DJ shark.
I do like DJ probably is. I'm just not you
know him the quarterback guy, and I just I don't
see it in minshow it's cute. The mustache is also
a fun ride. It's just you know, it's a good story.

(01:00:39):
It feel a good story, but I can't get into it. Man.
All Right, guys, that's all for today's show. Give Joe
a follow on Twitter at Joe P's at PS seventeen,
I'm at Bobby Fantasy pro and Yates is at Kyle
y NFL. You don't forget. Joe is also the author
of the number one best selling Fantasy Black Book series.
I believe it's number one right now on Amazon as well.
All right now, I want to say thanks to the
sponsor of today's show, Dynasty Owner. If you guys want

(01:01:00):
to compete against the best and make the same decisions
NFL owners and general managers make that, make sure to
check out www dot Dynasty owner dot com, and please
be sure to select Fantasy Pros Podcast as your source
and we've got a contest going on. Need to remind
you about here we go, all right, contests, You guys
can beat Tags at the Beat Tags Draft contest Fantasypros

(01:01:22):
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gonna need to do. You need to go to our
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros subscribe
and it only takes a few seconds to do. Okay,
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(01:01:44):
is going to be on Tuesday, July fourteenth at one
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And don't forget to check out our draft assistant that
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gonna love this. It is like cheating, like bringing a
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Fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard for Kyle Yates and

(01:02:04):
Joe pie Zappia. I'm Bobby Sylvester Thanks for listening and
enjoy your football. I just wanted you to watch me.
Deserve start, and I don't even know how. Again, the
street barks dig up trouble

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}20 Players to Avoid This Year (Ep. 506)