Avoid These 13 Busts + Who's Most Likely to ___? (Ep. 525)

Matthew Freedman of The Action Network joins us as we chat about which players have the biggest bust potential. Josh Jacobs' (4:22) mediocre offense and lack of targets might make him someone to stay away from. The guys debate whether Allen Robinson (29:16) will be held back by offensive uncertainty or maintain a high-floor with increased efficiency if Nick Foles takes over at QB. Also, Austin Hooper (43:03) may be facing a huge decrease in volume. We end things on a fun note by reading your questions about who is most likely to be a second-half stud (52:58) and which RB is most likely to lead all backs in receptions outside of Christian McCaffrey (54:09), among a few others.

Sponsors:

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Players:

Josh Jacobs - 0:04:22 Aaron Jones - 0:08:50 Derrick Henry - 0:13:50 Mark Ingram - 0:17:25 David Johnson - 0:19:40 Duke Johnson - 0:20:57 Mike Evans - 0:25:02 Allen Robinson - 0:29:16 DeAndre Hopkins - 0:33:42 Stefon Diggs - 0:36:32 Keenan Allen - 0:40:44 Austin Hooper - 0:43:04 Jared Cook - 0:46:53 Evan Engram - 0:50:24 Cam Akers - 0:55:04

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. My name is
Kyle Yates and I am your host. I am joined
as always by Mike Taglier. Find us on Twitter at
Kyle y NFL and at Mike Taglier NFL tags. What
is up, man, Oh, nothing much. I just thought i'd
let you know I am wearing a backwards hat today.
So I figured you'd be proud of me because you
were rasing me the other day about not wearing a

(00:36):
backwards hat, and so I had to go through my
closet and find one that wasn't like a snap back
or anything like that. It has to be a fitted
hat and has to fit right, and so I have
one on today. Well, I have a forward facing hat.
So it's Freaky Friday and we've switched. But hey, it's
not just tags night. Today we are joined by Matthew Freeman.
He's the editor in chief at Fantasy Labs, host of

(00:58):
the Action Network podcast, and he can we found on
Twitter at Matt f The Oracle. Matt. Thanks for joining
us today, man, yeah, thanks for having me. A few
things off the top. One, I'm wearing no hat today,
so we really pulled the trifecta there there we go.
Two apologies in advance to everyone who is listening to
my voice right now and thinks that it's Mike tag

(01:18):
Leer talking. It's actually not. It's his vocal doppelganger. Tags
and I have been told that we have basically the
same voice. So I just want to say upfront, if
at any point in this episode you are hearing bad
fantasy analysis and is coming to you in a very
monotone voice, just assume that it is Mike and not me.

(01:40):
And then the third thing is, you know, I don't
want to really make too big of a deal of this,
but guys, it's it's been a while since I've been
on the show. I'm, you know, feeling a little a
little neglected here. And I have a theory. My theory
is that Mike has had beard dominance on the show
for so long that he's never wanted a guest to
come on and have a beard that might match his. So, Mike,

(02:02):
thanks for having me on the show and giving me
a chance to outbeard you. Well that's so that's why
we're keeping you off video. So Yates and I are
doing video for the YouTube channel. If you guys haven't
seen that, but Matt was not invited to put his
fantastic beard because it is getting quite long. Man. We
did a podcast just last week together, and Matt has
a beautiful beard. Yeah, it's so now I really do

(02:23):
know why I'm not on the video, and I feel
really insulted. But let's move on absolutely. Guys, all right,
before we move into the content of today's show, I
want to remind you all about this insane giveaway we've
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(02:46):
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(03:08):
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(03:28):
contest again. That's Fantasypros dot com slash contest. All right, guys,
today we are going to be talking bus these guys
that could end up disappointing the season relative to where
you draft them. The players we're going to list here
today aren't necessarily ones that we are saying avoid at
all costs, right like these aren't not these players. This
is simply an exercise to point out the players that
we believe are going to disappoint relative to their ADP.

(03:51):
And if you're just joining us for the first time, welcome.
This ADP stands for average draft position and so relative
to their ADP and how much you have to pay
to a choire them. We're looking at the top twenty
four running backs and wide receivers, and we're each going
to choose a couple names from this list, and then
we'll look at either one quarterback or tight end that's
being drafted within the top twelve at those positions. Sound good,

(04:12):
sounds fantastic? All right, well, tags, let's shift it over
to you right away here, man, let's go with the
top twenty four running backs. Let's go around the room once.
So let's go with you first. Who's your first running
back here? Yeah? I know, I know there's a lot
of people tuning into the show that maybe have tuned
out throughout the offseason and some people get back into
fantasy football mode in August. And I haven't really talked
about this quite much, but but Josh Jacobs is someone
that like. Where he's being drafted as as high as

(04:34):
the seventh running back off the board at the tail
end of the first round, it's just too rich for
my blood. I mean, I understand that he's a really
good running back. He is, and I loved him out
of college, and one of the best attributes he has
is catching the ball out of the backfield. However, when
you walk out of your rookie season with fewer than
thirty targets in thirteen games, that's a real problem for me,
and I know he was dealing with the shoulder injury.
But let's not pretend that they didn't bring in a

(04:54):
lot of talent this offseason. In terms of the draft.
They drafted three pass catchers in the first three rounds,
including Hen Rugs the number twelve overall. Who's going to
play in the slot some of those intermediate targets that
he's gonna get over the middle of the field. So
we could hear Mike Mayock the GM talk about, oh,
we're gonna get Josh Jacobs more involved in the pass game.
All we want where are those targets gonna come away from?
Where are you gonna take them away from? Are you
gonna take them away from Darren Waller, who was fantastic

(05:15):
last year? Are you gonna take away from Jalen Rochard,
a guy that you resigned to your team when you
didn't really need to. It's just trying to figure out
where these targets come from. So Josh Jacobs to me,
plays for an offense that's not going to be a
top scoring team. So I don't think there's gonna be
a you know, there's not fifteen touchdown upside with Josh Jacobs,
I don't believe that he's heavily utilized in the passing game.
He is going to he might get up to that

(05:36):
maybe Joe Mixon territory from last year, maybe that forty
five target range, and I think that's probably close to
the ceiling in terms of what he can get with
all the players healthy on the squad. So drafting him
as high as you are, I just feel like you
should be getting a player that's guaranteed to finish as
a first round talent if he's on the field. And
I can't say that. I just can't say that about
Josh Jacobs. Matt, I have him on my list, so

(05:57):
he was one of my players, Josh Jacobs. And it's
really looking at the offense and saying that Las Vegas.
Let's not pretend that Las Vegas is a very pass
happy team, right like they're they're not. You think of
these pass happy teams and just they're committed to the
run game. So Josh Jacobs is going to be great
with the work that he gets on the ground. But
do you agree with Tags here that this is a
potential bust And it's predicated upon the fact that he's

(06:18):
not going to be as involved in the passing game
as he'd like. Yeah, exactly, He's someone I'm staying away from.
He's not on my shortlist, but he's definitely on the
bigger list. And I think you guys hit it right.
There's you know, the situation where if a guy's not
getting touchdowns and he's not getting receptions, it's great that
he's getting a lot of carries, but that just might
end up being a lot of empty yardage, which isn't nothing.

(06:39):
It gives him a decent floor, but it doesn't mean
that he's going to have a great shot to be
a top six, top eight type of league winning back. Yeah.
I mean looking at the offense really, like he has
obviously the workload he's going to get what two hundred
and seventy carries in this offense, right, Like you're looking
at the backs behind him, and you're saying that no
one's going to be taking work away from Josh Jacobs

(06:59):
on the But when you factor in Jalen Richard, like
you said tags, but then also Linn Bowden junior, who's
going to be this like hybrid. They're talking about getting
him snaps at quarterback, which I just don't see that.
But he's an electric playmaker. He's electric with a ball
in his hands. You're gonna get him scheme touches so
and he's an excellent receiver. So it's all going to
go and be put into this pot where we're saying, like,
can Josh Jacobs be this top tier running back because

(07:22):
he's currently going is the RB nine off the board.
He's back in RB one and for those players, you
need them to finish there to build a solid foundation
for your team. Tags Are you comfortable, I mean, obviously
it doesn't sound like you are. Are you comfortable with
him as your RB one? Not really? I mean if
I were to give him at like in the middle
of the second round, late second round, I'd feel okay
about it. But you're not going to get him there.

(07:43):
You have to take him at either at the end
of the first round or very top of the second round.
That's where he's going, and there's just much safer players there,
Like I would rather go with someone like Julio Jones personally.
And by the way, I just want to say to
people listening, I have gotten emails on it before and
I sometimes forget to mention it that we always reference
half PPR four mats because we basically, with the amount
of shows that we're able to do, we can't do

(08:04):
one standard, one half PPR, and one full PPR. So
we try and do a middle ground because it applies
to kind of both sides of the spectrum, and we
will mention it. There's someone that benefits greatly from PPR,
will mention that, but we try and do somewhere in
the middle. So, yeah, Jacob's having that late first round ADP.
I just think there's a lot safer options. Again, if
you don't like running backs in that range and you
feel like you need a running back, I would rather

(08:25):
just take someone to a Coulio Jones because Jacobs is
in a tier with running backs that I feel like,
I don't think you're sacrificing much going down you know,
a couple of running back spots later than Jacobs, So again,
I'm not I just feel like where he's being drafted,
it's just way too high. You're drafting and basically at
his ceiling anticipating he's getting a lot more passing down
usage for sure. All right, Matt, let's pivot to you here.
Who do you have as this player for running back

(08:47):
that you believe is going to disappoint relative to their ADP.
So one guy who's going in the top twelve that
I'm looking to stay away from is Aaron Jones. And
it has really nothing to do with Aaron Jones as
a talent. I think he's a pretty talented player who's
always been pretty efficient on a per opportunity basis. But
I think two things are really working against him this year.

(09:08):
One is just the obvious touchdown regression that's coming. He's
not going to score what was it nineteen touchdowns he
had last year. He's not going to come close to
that number this year. And then the second thing is
that the Packers did just spend a second round pick
on AJ Dillon. And you know, I've gone back and
forth with people on Twitter about AJ Dillon. Let's assume

(09:29):
that he's not automatically the second coming of Derrick Henry,
but it is fair to note that he definitely has
a Henry esque type of skill set, and he certainly
has the athleticism in the body to warrant a comparison
to Derrick Henry. And he has in Matt Laflour, a

(09:50):
play caller who is familiar with Derrick Henry and would
maybe like to have a little more of a Henry
type of force within that offense. So not only could
we see Aaron Jones lose touchdowns potentially to AJ Dillon,
but he could also lose a lot of carries to
AJ Dillon as well. So I would expect fewer yards
and fewer touchdowns. And for a guy who's going, you know,

(10:13):
right now, round number ten, number eleven in half PPR ADP,
that's just something I kind of want to stay away from.
It's not that I think he's going to be a
huge bust, but I think that he has more downside
risk than a number of other guys in this range. Yeah,
there are obviously a lot of question marks surrounding Aaron
Jones and particularly with AJ Dillon. And I think if

(10:36):
if they had added AJ Dillon in the fourth round, right,
let's just say that a J. Dillon was drafted in
the fourth round, would we still be having these same
kind of questions tags as far as okay, how what
do they actually think of Aaron Jones? Is Aaron Jones
safe going into this year? You know, that's just a J. Dillon.
They added a fourth round depth piece running back, but
they spent a second round draft capital on him. So

(10:56):
do you think that that factors in as far as
are the question marks that are now surrounding Aaron Jones.
I mean it has to be factored in. And if
we didn't factor in aj Dillon at all, I think
Aaron Jones would be going higher in drafts. I think
he would be going over guys like Josh Jacobs and
maybe guys like Nick Chubb, just because we saw what
Aaron Jones did last year, like hyper efficient, and he
didn't get all those touches. And I've been talking on
the show about maybe comparing him to someone like Alvin

(11:19):
Kamara in terms of these guys continually and if you
look at I did an article that basically looked at
what players should have scored in twenty nineteen and what
they did in terms of the difference, like what they
added over the average fantasy football player would have. Aaron
Jones has finished number four as the number four running
back and back to back years, so he's just hyper efficient.
Alvin Kamara has been that running back as well. So

(11:40):
I think we have to step back and say, Okay,
Aaron Jones doesn't need twenty two touches per game to
be an RB one like a Leonard Fournette like like
some of these guys. What he needs is as long
as he's getting those sixteen plus touches per game, I
feel like he's going to give you that borderline RB
one production. Is he going to be a little bit
touchdown reliant? Sure, But at the same time, Aaron Rodgers
let off has always seemed to be better for running backs.

(12:02):
A lot of those guys just score touchdowns. Like Eddie
Lacey fell into the end zone and finishes the top
five running back on multiple occasions. We all know he
wasn't very good at football. Aaron Jones just happened to
be really good. The biggest problem here is Matt Laflour.
Matt Lafloor is just he's oblivious to what he has
on his team. You know, the greatest talents on the
Packers roster were Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones. And what
does he do. He trades up to draft a quarterback

(12:22):
in the first round and then he drafts a basically
a fullback in the second round. I worry about Matt
Lafloor more than I do Aaron Jones and obviously it
could be like a John Coon effect, where you know,
and if Matt Lafloor, by the way, I just wanted
to go back to that. If Matt Lafleura thinks AJ
Dillon is anything even close to comparable to Derrick Henry,
it's comical, but I would It wouldn't surprise me though.
And by the way, going back to when Matt laflour

(12:44):
had Dereck Henry, he didn't even know how to use him.
Obviously we've seen Henry flourish when Matt Lafloor left. So
Matt Lafloor is my biggest concern here. Aaron Jones at
the end, he's basically the tail end of the RB ones.
So if you like, let's say, if you take Michael
Thomas at number four overall or something like that, and
then you want to take Aaron Jones as you know,
your low end RB one, I'm okay with it, But

(13:06):
I do understand the concerns Matt. How far would Aaron
Jones have to fall for you to consider taking him? Right?
Because you mentioned it, RB ten currently in adp ECR,
which it stands for Expert Consensus Ranking, has him at
RB thirteen. How far would he have to fall for
you to kind of say, Okay, I'm comfortable with Aaron
Jones now, like RB eighteen, you know, I mean, I
know that's yeah, that's super low. So he's not going

(13:28):
to fall there, and that just means I don't have
any Aaron Jones. But I just think the downside risk
is pretty significant, and there are so many other running
backs within that general tier that I would rather have,
or I feel like I could just wait a little
bit longer and get some guys who are cheaper, who
have a likelihood of producing in the same range as
Aaron Jones. Yeah, all right, guys, I'm going to bring

(13:50):
up Derek Henry here, and this is purely from the
perspective that he's going as the RB five in ADP
right now, I think that's a little bit too high. Now.
This is if there is a player that can be
a steady contributor for your lineup week in and week out,
Derrick Henry offers an extremely safe floor because you know
that he's going to get fifteen seventeen, you know, potentially
twenty carries a game. So this isn't me saying that

(14:13):
Derrick Henry is going to finish outside the top twelve
running backs. But it's purely looking at the cost to
acquire him. And it's a very similar argument to what
TAGS had with Josh Jacobs, which is why I had
Josh Jacobs on my list too. Derrick Henry is not
a factor in the passing game, So when you are
looking at a player that you have to rely on
Derrick Henry getting a ton of work on the ground.

(14:34):
What happens if Tennessee's efficiency drops back from last year,
which they were incredibly efficient, and Derrick Henry had three
hundred and three carries on the season because he was
this team was so efficient and was in games like leading,
you know, winning these games, and so he was getting
these carries towards the end of the game, well, three
hundred three carries and then how many touchdowns sixteen fifteen

(14:56):
touchdowns I can't remember off time my head. Yeah, So
you're betting on him reaching those high benchmarks again this
season to draft him at the RB five. I have
him right now at RB nine. So I'm looking at
this and saying that there are other backs that I
would prefer to have, and at this in this conversation,
I would prefer to have these other backs over Derrick Henry.
I'm going to say that Derrick Henry is going to

(15:17):
disappoint relative to his ADP tags. I know that you
took him in our PPR mock draft as your RB
one yesterday, so I'm sure that you're going to disagree
with me here. What are your thoughts. I'm disagreeing because
it's weird because if you were to go back a
couple months ago, I probably would have told you I
agree with you one hundred percent is that there's a
lot of bus potential here. But then once I sat
down and I went through some of the metrics, I

(15:38):
was able to this offseason like not many people know
that the Titans I mentioned on our mock draft show yesterday.
The Titans have the running backs have averaged less than
one yard before contact in each of the last two years.
That's the only team in the league to do that.
So their offensive line has been pretty brutal. I was
worried about Jack Conklin leaving, but knowing that they were
bad to begin with, I mean, I can't say that
they're going to be any worse because they've already been

(15:59):
one of the worst in the league in terms of
creating yards for their running back, Derrick Henry. Their offense
revolved around him, and you know, once they got to
the playoffs, we did see that the team, everybody knew
where the ball was going, and they still couldn't stop it,
including Bill Belichick. You know, that's a that's a big
deal because Bill Belichick does not how a game plan.
And then once I had gone through the article series
that I did on Boom Bust and everything in between,

(16:21):
seeing that Derrick Henry was just as consistent as any
other running back that's taken in the top five in
terms of like, you know, consistency and RB one RB
two performances, I was like, Wow, maybe I did misinterpret
situation because I felt like Derrick Henry was going to
offer a lower floor than some of the other running
backs being taken in the first round. But he offers
a similar floor. He offers the ceiling. We know that

(16:42):
he could break und like ninety yard runs at any point.
So it's like when you're trying to project players like
like me, projecting Kenyan Drake over a full sixteen game
season in a workhorse role, projecting Joe Mixon to get
more work in the passing game, projecting Clyde Edwards Hilaire
to be the player that I think he's going to
be in the NFL. There's definitely question marks around those
players where Henry's just played the safest one, Like, I

(17:03):
don't think there's any bus potential if he's on the field.
I think that you might lose some of the potential.
Are overall number one upside because I don't think Dereck
Henry can finish as the RB one considering how little
he's using the passing game, but he is safe as
a middle tier RB one. Sure. Okay, well, tag, let's
turn it right back to you. Who is your second

(17:24):
running back here? This one's really tough for me because
I could make arguments for everybody. I'm gonna say that
it's mark Ingram just because we have a guy that's
going on thirty one years old. Obviously, season was ended
early last year just because like dealing with injuries going
into the playoffs. Lamar Jackson has touchdown regression towards the
mean coming this year, which means he's going to score

(17:44):
more touchdowns. Mark Ingram. There was just one game last
year where he saw more than fifteen carries. He was
heavily relying on these touchdowns. And now you have the
Ravens who said, hey, we had to take JK. Dobbins
as the second Why because we had a first round
grade on him. We felt like we were doing our
team a disservice. We've passed on him. And if they
feel like JK. Dobbins is truly a first round talent,
he's gonna be on the field. Gus Edwards as a

(18:06):
guy that they were giving carries to while mark Ingram
was playing pretty well last year. And again you get
up there in age. Mark Ingram had a ton of
carries in college, a ton of carries now on his
body in the NFL. So him being drafted as a
borderline top twenty running back, Guys, we're not playing the
twenty nineteen season. Again, you have to look forward and
understand that the Ravens are going to pass the ball more.
Ingram's not involved in the passing game. Dobbins is the

(18:28):
better three down back probably at this point in their career. Yeah,
mark Ingram is someone that's definitely a bus candidate for me.
Matt mark Ingram last season five receiving touchdowns on twenty
six receptions. That's ridiculous and unsustainable? Are you kind of
in line with ECR and ADP here with Ingram? Are are
are you much lower or higher? Where are you at?
On Ingram? I think he's more of an RB three

(18:49):
than an RB two here. And I agree with the
perspective that TAGS has on him, you know, as a
guy who's on the wrong side of thirty. He just
presents a lot of downside risk. And I think that's
that's the exercise and trying to look at guys who
have the potential to be bust, just trying to avoid
drafting guys needlessly who carry risk. Like there's a difference

(19:10):
between drafting a guy who has risk but also has
massive upside. I just don't see that here with mark Ingram.
And so if you do this exercise, you look at him,
you see all the negative things around him. Even though
he might offer some theoretical value based on his median projection,
his downside projection could like it could ruin your season.

(19:33):
So that's the type of thing that I'd want to
stay away from. Yeah, it makes sense, all right, Matt.
Let's turn it to you here, who is your second
running back? Here? So I would be tempted to say
Leonard Fournette or Todd Gurley, but I think they're they're
strong candidates to bust. But I'll go with David Johnson here,
you know, going as i'd say a late RB two,
so maybe like number twenty four, so right on the cusp.

(19:56):
And he's someone who I think could be tempting because
you look at the opportunity that he could have in Houston,
and you look at historically what he's done, and you think, okay,
like he actually might get a real shot to lead
this team. And if he does, he's going he's going
to pay off at his ADP, which, like I don't
dispute that, like the median projection for him is not

(20:19):
that bad, but the downside risk is enormous. Like we're
talking about a running back who has three point six
yards per carry over the past three season six point
seven yards per target over that same time frame. And
this is the guy who's supposed to be one of
the better receiving backs in the league. And he's twenty
nine and he's already kind of like he feels like

(20:41):
a broken down back, Like David Johnson at twenty nine
feels older than mark Ingram at thirty one. You know,
like I just don't want to invest in players like
that who seem as if they could break down at
any moment. So, Matt, real quick, I'll follow up to that.
Are you into Duke Johnson and then it is current ADP? Yes,

(21:02):
I mean the one. Let me let me try to
rephrase that or contextualize it. I want to be interested
in Johnson, and if there's ever a year in which
Johnson seems like Duke Johnson seems like he's positioned to
break out, it has to be this year. But at
the same time, you just you never know what Bob
in Houston is going to end up doing his with

(21:23):
his running backs. You know, it seemed like last year
would have been a good time when he had to
overcome only Carlos Hyde, right, but like that didn't happen.
So you know, maybe David Johnson still ends up getting
two hundred carries they're just highly inefficient, or maybe David
Johnson goes the wayside and they bring in some other
washed up veteran, you know, maybe like DeVante Freeman signs

(21:45):
or something like that. So, like, I like the idea
of Duke Johnson, and I think if he were actually
given a shot. He could have some real, you know,
like peak Lashawn McCoy type of potential. I just don't
know if he's ever going to get that shot. Tags.
For David Johnson to return value on RB twenty three
price tag right now, several things have to go his way. Right.

(22:05):
He has to be fully healthy, which what we saw
last season would indicate that he is not and he
may be done. He has to be heavily involved in
the passing game, which previously Houston Texans running backs have
not been, you know, historically. Now we can look back
and say, okay, well it was Lamar Miller, has been,
Carlos Hide, but traditionally they just have not been involved.
Even Duke Johnson, as phenomenal as a pass catcher as
he is, was not heavily involved in that role. And

(22:27):
you still have Duke Johnson on the roster. So the
path and there's several other things, the path for David
Johnson to return value is very, very minimal. Is he
even worth considering or do you in your draft do
you let someone else just take that, you know, dice
role and do you look at David Montgomery two spots
later in the running back position. Yeah, I think Montgomery's

(22:47):
a safer pick because you're getting a floor with him.
That's basically what people are saying is that David Johnson,
if he returns to the player he was like, his
floor is low end RB two. We could say the
same thing about David Montgomery. It's just we know he's healthy,
he's young, he's leaner. David Johnson. It's tough for me
to get too excited about David Johnson because this is
a team that really does not fit his strengths. They
haven't had a running back that typically garners a high

(23:07):
yards per carry. They do have a lot of in
between the tackle stuff and that's why Carlos Hide was
able to rack up some numbers last year. But David
Johnson's not that player. He's not a grind it out
in between the tackles type of guy. He's a guy
that you want to line up at wide receiver if
you can. And they're talking about that. But Houston hasn't
used they're running backs in the passing game very much.
Last year was the most and Duke Johnson is the
guy that they traded. Wasn't a third round pick for

(23:29):
Duke Johnson? Yeah? I think that they treated so, I mean,
they clearly like Duke Johnson, and then they brought him
in and it's just like they have this role designed
for him. So it's like you start wondering where David
Johnson's strengths are going to be highlighted in this offense,
and I just don't see it unless they get creative,
which is really difficult to see under someone like Bob.
I'm with you on this one. I don't think I'm
gonna own a whole lot of David Johnson. I think
he's just like he's a He's basically again, David Montgomery

(23:51):
is a guy that I think I would draft over him,
just because we at least know that he's not on
the last legs of his career. Right. All right, Well,
we're pausing the podcast for a quick second to think
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(24:54):
cave today. My second guy was Josh Jacobs. So we're
just going to move on and we'll pivot over to
the wide receivers guys. So tags, I'm going to send
this to you. Who is a wide receiver that you
believe is going to disappoint relative to their ADP within
the top twenty four. Mike Evans. Mike Evans being taken
as the wide receiver eight right now I do not
agree with. So here's the staff for you. Mike Evans.

(25:16):
There were just I'm not kidding. There were just five
games last year where he scored more than twelve points
and half PPR formats. Five games, that's it, okay. So
he had games that carried him his target totals in
those games fifteen, twelve, sixteen, seventeen in seven. So there
was one game where he had less than twelve targets

(25:36):
where he scored that. So essentially this has been Mike
Evans throughout his career. It's like you start going through it,
you see like he's either scoring touchdowns or he's getting
a lot of targets. He's being targeted down the field,
so his yards reception is way up there. It's over
seventeen in the last two years. Jameis Winston is the
guy willing to throw the ball down the field. Tom
Brady is not to say that he can't throw the
deep anymore, but he is not going to be chucking

(25:56):
the ball down the field nearly as much as Jamis Winston.
He also doesn't wide receivers with targets who don't garner separation.
It's why I didn't like Nikhil Harry in New England
last year, and it's why that I really don't love
Evans this year. I don't think that he's bad to
have as like a wide receiver too, because again, he's
a proven producer in the NFL. He is a touchdown scorer.
They're gonna find ways to give him the ball in
the red zone. But I don't see Tom Brady targeting

(26:18):
him over ten times per game. And if he's not
getting that, he's clearly shown that he's not a consistent
wide receiver when he's not getting double digit targets. Fun fact,
Mike Evans was a wide receiver two or better last
year in just thirty eight percent of his games. Thirty
eight percent, like Christian Kirk was the same percentage Sterling
Shepard was actually higher like it was not a good

(26:39):
season for him again forty one points, thirty seven points,
thirty points. Those performances carried his season totals to make
him look like a better receiver than he actually was.
Make no mistake about it. Chris Godwin is quickly going
to become Tom Brady's favorite target in this offense, and
Mike Evans is relegated to a wide receiver too, So
drafting him as the wide receiver eight, it's it's way

(26:59):
to expect Matt we're looking at Tom Brady now at
forty three years old versus Jamis Winston, who was more
willing to stand in the pocket, let the pocket collapse
on him, and hold onto the ball just an extra
second longer to be able to take that shot, you know,
to allow Mike Evans to create a little bit of
separation and to take that shot deep downfield. When we're
looking at Tom Brady at forty three years old now.

(27:21):
I was listening to a recent episode of podcast. I
can't even remember which one it was, but they were
saying that at this point, he's going to get the
ball out before he can get hit, right, He's going
to be this guy who is just going to take
what is there. He's going to dissect a defense just quickly.
And that's why I love Chris Godwin this year. Are
you in agreement? Because Mike Evans was on my list
too as a bust at wide Receiver eight pricetagg. Are

(27:42):
you on our side here or where are you at
with Mike Evans. I don't know if i'd say that
he's a bust, but I definitely imagine that he's not
going to hit his ADP in that he could fall
under it by a pretty decent amount. But I still
think of him as someone and it's weird, like I
think of him as someone who has, over the course

(28:03):
of the season a pretty high floor. If you look
at what he's done in each of his six seasons
in the NFL, he's basically been a lock for a
thousand yards receiving, but week to week, as Tags touched on,
he's really inconsistent. So I think of him as more
of a best ball play just because you can sort
of bank bank the points without having to think about

(28:25):
the week to week consistency. But yeah, to Tag's point
about just the reduction in volume, I think that's right.
You know, this is a team in Tampa Bay that
led the league last year in past attempts, Jay miss
Winston led the league in passing. I don't think we're
going to see that out of Tom Brady. So I
think fewer yards to go around for the wide receivers.

(28:45):
I also think fewer touchdowns to go around for the
entire team. And then also with Grob Gronkowski there, he
could seize a significant share of the touchdowns, So I
would expect Evans and Godwin to have fewer touchdowns this
year than last year. If you're combining that with fewer yards, Yeah,
they're significant downside with Evans. I said it on a

(29:06):
recent podcast. I said that I would love Mike Evans
as my wide receiver too, because I think he does
bring that upside. However, you're not getting him there, which
is a big concern. Okay, Matt, let's turn it back
to you. Who is your wide receiver in this range? So?
Alan Robinson is a guy I have zero of, and
I'm totally fine with That's that's the way I want
to live my life. Just zero Allan Robinson at this point,

(29:27):
and it's it's nothing against him as a talent. I
really feel bad because I feel like his career has
just been submarined by poor quarterback play and then you
know the ACL injury that he suffered in two thousand
and seventeen. And you know, Allan Robinson at his peak
in two and fifteen, with you know, fourteen hundred yards
and fourteen touchdowns, Man, that guy just looked like a

(29:47):
future superstar. But I don't think he's ever really going
to develop into that guy. And last year we saw
you know, one hundred and fifty four targets a career
high ninety eight receptions a career high, and on that
usage he had, you know, I'm saying only eleven hundred
and forty seven yards. It's not horrible, but you know,
with that kind of volume, you would hope to have

(30:08):
a guy who's getting more yardage. I'm just looking at
that Chicago offense and there's a lot of uncertainty at
the quarterback position. There's a lot of uncertainty as to
how efficient that offense is even going to be. I
think kind of regardless of who the quarterback is, I'm
not expecting that many yards or that many touchdowns to
go around for the entire offense in general. And then

(30:29):
I would also expect for Alan Robinson that he's just
gonna get fewer targets. So I know he's going right
now as a low end wide receiver one, and I
get the enthusiasm around him, but man, I have him
more as like low end wide receiver two. And even
then I'm thinking, like, there are just other guys I
would rather have. I know, Yeates is gonna go after

(30:51):
you on this one. I haven't met wide receiver six,
so I am I'm really all in on Alan Robinson
this year, just because I'm looking at this offense and yeah,
you mentioned it based on the receptions and the yardage,
like there was very very little yards after the catch
in this Chicago Bears offense at all last year, Like
none of the receivers were really able to get the

(31:12):
ball in stride. And you know you see that with
three Cohen's efficiency, his yards perception dropping from ten down
to five something last year. So like Alan Robinson was
getting the ball in a place where he wasn't able
to turn up field, same with Anthony Miller. And so
I think that if Nick Foles in this is who
I am projecting the takeover. If Nick Foles is going
to be the quarterback, I think the offense is going

(31:33):
to be more efficient and stay on track. So I
don't see a path where I think he has a
safe floor. I don't see a path how he falls
all the way down to a wide receiver too, where
like you said, Matt, I'm buying in so and this
is it's fine to disagree. This is why we have
these so tags. I'll let you, I'll let you settle this.
Where are you at with Alan Robinson? Do you have

(31:54):
him more closer to wide receivers six where I have
him or do you have him down where Matt has him.
So Matt's concerns are legitimit in terms of like saying,
like the efficiency of the offense, the overall quarterback play.
But I would argue that it was as bad as
it can get last year. Trubisky, Yeah, obviously wasn't great.
I think he averaged six point six yards per attempt
or something like that. It was. It was really low.

(32:14):
So to know that Allen Robinson now has twice the
shot at competent quarterback play, I think that does help him.
He obviously is the focal point of this offense one
hundred and fifty four targets last year. Sure, we're expecting,
you know, Anthony Miller to take a step forward this year,
but Ted Ginn is the starting number three receiver. He's
not going to get even the Taylor Gabriel targets. Jimmy
Graham is the tight end. Get out of here. Like
this team is kind of like the way that they

(32:36):
built this team is almost like they think they're a
veteran team that's built to win a Super Bowl right
now they're not. But Allen Robinson, I feel like he's
a guy that he's a volume driven receiver right now
with bad quarterback play, he doesn't necessarily need to be
extremely efficient in order to live up to that low
end wide receiver one price tag. I'm actually in the middle.
I am at wide receiver nine. I'd say I'm closer
to Yates on this this debate because I will own

(32:57):
same Ellen Robinson if he falls to me at like
the top of the third round, I think he's fine
a draft there. There are some other receivers that I
have over him that are going after an ADP, like
maybe Juju Smith, Schuster, Odell Beckham. But I feel like
Allen Robinson belongs in that tier just because he's a
safe wide receiver. It's almost like it's like I was
talking about with Mike Evans, like I felt like he's
going to bust at his current cost. Allen Robinson's being

(33:17):
taken one wide receiver selection after him. But Allen Robinson,
he doesn't have as many variables as Mike Evans does.
And that's why I'm a little bit more okay with it.
And I actually, if anything, Nick Foles pushes Trubisky to
be better vice versa. Where again, if Trubisky struggles, they're
gonna go to Foles if full struggles are gonna go
to Trubisky. And it's just like almost a better shot
at efficient quarterback play. And it's really difficult to see

(33:38):
this offense as bad as it was in twenty nineteen
for sure. All Right, I'm gonna give my second guy
here because Mike Evans was on my list. So I'm
gonna give my second guy. That's DeAndre Hopkins. And we're
looking at DeAndre Hopkins currently going off the board as
a wide receiver four, and so he's going ahead of
guys like Chris Godwin and so looking at DeAndre Hopkins,
and he has been a phenomenal fantasy wide receiver over

(33:59):
the past several years, even doing it previously without Deshaun Watson,
right with other quarterback play like brock Osweiler and Brandon Weeden.
I think, you know, so these other guys, he's been
phenomenal and he's a phenomenal wide receiver. However, we're looking
at him now switching over to Arizona. The volume that
DeAndre Hopkins has seen is not going to be there.

(34:20):
He This Arizona offense spreads the ball around a Ton,
You still have Larry Fitzgerald involved, you still have Christian Kirk.
Hicken Butler's coming back now, and I liked hicken Butler
coming out. Now, I'm not projecting him have a significant
role in the offense, but he is still there and
he's going to be a factor. So then and now
Andy Isabella is the other guy that he should be
more of a factor this year too. This offense is
going to be heavy eleven personnel, get their wide receivers

(34:43):
on the field and spread the ball around. Now, I
think Hopkins is fine. I've met wide receiver eight, so
I'm not projecting, like you know, the volume to drop
so far that he's going to be outside the top
twelve or anything like that. I really like him this year,
but for me to have to pay up a wide
receiver for price tag and take him over a guy
who I know is going to get guaranteed volume like
Chris Godwin, I will take Chris Godwin ten times out

(35:05):
of ten tags. Where are you at? Yeah, Hopkins is
someone that I mean, I'm not a posed Hopkins. I
m as my wide receiver five, but I'm not touching
him at I'm looking at adp overall not wide receiver.
He's being taken in front of Julio Jones, which is
a joke. Like, seriously, it's like someone's playing a joke
on me. Julio Jones shouldn't be going after him. He
shouldn't be going after Tyreek Hill. Julio should be the
third receiver off the board Hopkins. The reason that I

(35:27):
tend to say that I don't think Hopkins is going
to bust. I won't draft him at eleven overall. I'll
be clear about that. I think he's a middle second
round pick. I think he should be going around eighteen
overall is that Hopkins, over the course of his career
has produced with a lot of bad quarterbacks. And I'm
not saying I'm not willing to say that Kyler Murray
is a great quarterback. I'm not I think that he was.
He was mediocre last year, and so many people are

(35:47):
jumping on him is like, oh, break out candidate. He
needs to play better in twenty twenty. He's gonna be
a breakout candidate, but there are a lot of competition
for targets. Lawy Fitzgill didn't come back to sit on
the bench. It's kind of like an Adrian Peterson deal
where these guys are true legit Hall of famers that
are not going to come back just to sit on
the bench. So Fitzgerald, you know he's going to see
eighty plus targets. Christian Kirk is a guy that was
on paced for I think one hundred and twenty last
year without the injury. So even if he gets knocked

(36:09):
down to one hundred, it's like we're looking at all
these targets and they're adding up. And they do run
a lot of four wide receiver sets. So knowing there
was no offseason, there is some risks involved with players
that are switching teams. I like Hopkins awful lot as
a player, but I won't touch him at eleven overall.
I just I don't. I think he's finishing as a
wide receiver. One. The question is how high does it
get for sure? All Right, Matt, let's spin it to you.
Who is your next guy up on this wide receiver list?

(36:32):
I'm torn between talking about Keenan Allen in Stefan Diggs
and I had both of them, I could do not
I have both of them my list. I mean, Keenan
Allen is the one I was going to choose. So
if you want to go Diggs, I'll take Allen. Yeah,
I'll go with Diggs here. And part of this, I
should say is maybe just like long standing bias that
I've had against Stefan Diggs. And I don't know why

(36:54):
I've really been biased against him this whole time, but
you know, when he was entering the league, he was
a fifth rounder. He wasn't someone I was really that interested,
and so I feel like that's something that's always kind
of lingered in my evaluations of him. So I'll just say,
like upfront, I know I have a blind spot when
it comes to Stefon Diggs, but this year, I feel
like that blind spot actually makes a little bit of sense.
What we've seen out of Diggs in his past two

(37:16):
seasons is him playing at his best with the best
quarterback of his career in Kirk Cousins. And now you
know he's going to a team that is going to
continue to focus on the run, just like the Vikings did.
I don't think he's going to see a massive surge
in targets coming his way. He should see the bump
from like the what was it like ninety five or

(37:38):
something like that that he had last year, which was
just a ridiculously low number. But he should see a
bump up from that, but it's not going to be
massive because they're just not going to be throwing the
ball all that much in Buffalo. And then he's going
to a quarterback in Josh Allen, who I'm imagining should
improve in his deep ball accuracy. But last year he
was still one of the worst deep ball passers in

(37:59):
the league. And you know Stefan Diggs who last year
had an outrageous twelve yards per target. That's just going
to regress. And so although he's I think, on his
own in a vacuum, a very talented player, I just
don't think the circumstances are conspiring to get him the
volume or the efficiency he's going to need to be

(38:20):
someone who's you know, producing as if he's a top
twenty four wide receiver. I honestly think he's going to
be more like a low end wide receiver three by
the time this season ends. It all comes down to
volume and so tags are you in agreement here? Obviously
you had him on your list, so it sounds like it,
but where are you at it? Is it based on

(38:41):
you know, Josh Allen, Is it based on volume? What's
your reasoning here with It's a mix of both, honestly. Like, so,
Stefan Diggs is someone that when I did my projections,
he came in at like wide receiver thirty six, so
that was crazy low. And I'm like, Stefan Diggs is
way too talented for me to move him down that far.
So I actually moved him up. And I think I'm
at wide receiver twenty eight or something like that right now,
and I don't feel great about it. I mean, John
Brown last year was really good. Can we all agree

(39:03):
that John Brown was good? I mean John Brown saw
one hundred and fifteen targets with the same Josh Allen.
And it's not like we're gonna say, hey, John Brown,
step aside, this is stefand Digg's team. You're gonna get
fifty targets. They're not gonna do that. Cole Beasley is
still gonna play that slot route. It's basically that's that's
safety valve for Josh Allen. Allen needs to improve in
deep all accuracy in order for stefand Diggs to kind
of like truly live up to his ADP right now,

(39:23):
because Diggs. It's almost like a Duke Johnson thing right
where we wonder Amari Cooper too, where we wonder why
these players no matter what, it's been multiple coaches now
where these players have gone through different systems and they're
not getting the volume that people think they deserve. Like
Stefon Diggs is a top ten talent wide receiver in
my opinion, but he's never gotten that elite volume. Why
Why has that happened? It's been multiple coaches, you know,

(39:43):
it's been multiple coordinators whatever. So going to Buffalo with
no offseason, working with Josh Allen, who struggled with deep
all efficiency, I think Stefend Diggs is gonna have a
few problems, especially if he doesn't get up into that.
I think to live up to this price, he needs
to get up to one hundred and twenty five targets
with Josh Allen, and I don't know if that happens.
So I'm with you on Stefan Diggs in terms of

(40:05):
his average position being a bust where he's being drafted,
because again projections have him as a low end wide
receiver three For me too, I mean, yeah, you're talking
about John Brown one hundred and fifteen targets last year.
Cole Beasley had one hundred and six targets last year, guys,
So like again, he's not going away either. So to
try to factor in all three of these guys getting
work in a low passing volume offense. It's not that

(40:25):
I don't like these players, and I would love for
them to be great for fantasy football. It's just they
all kind of cancel each other out. If we do
see something happen with you know, God forbid with John
Brown or Cole Beasley and they missed time, then Stefan
Diggs gets a significant bump. But right now we have
to base it off the fact that all three are
going to be involved in this offense. Tax Let's go
to you. You had Keenan Allen, right, I do, yeah,

(40:46):
so I want to. So basically, I'm gonna give you
guys a glimpse into the I'm writing the Primer Draft
Day edition. I'm trying to get it out for you
guys at the end of this week. I just wrote
up Keenan Allen actually yesterday. So here's what I have
on them. That Keenan Allen has not scored more than
six touchdowns and any of the last six seasons. That's
despite Philip Rivers throwing at least twenty eight touchdowns and
five of them. He is a phenomenal rout runner, but

(41:07):
he's not to go up and get a receiver that
you'll fall in love with in the red zone. Tyrod
Taylor career high four hundred and thirty seven pass attempts.
The Chargers throw the ball five hundred and ninety seven
times last year. So even if we're like, let's say
that we're gonna be like totally sky high and say
Tyrod's gonna throw the ball more, or if they moved
to Justin Herbert, let's say they throw the ball five
hundred times, that is still a massive decrease ninety seven

(41:28):
pass attempts that will be filtered throughout the depth chart,
especially and when you don't score touchdowns like Keenan Allen,
that's a problem. It's a real problem. So you know,
the good news is that it's it's a very top
heavy depth chart between him and Mike Williams at wide receiver.
But again, if you break that down to five hundred times,
and that's being extremely high. In my opinion, I think

(41:49):
it's realistic to say that he's probably gonna be in
one hundred and ten one hundred and twenty target range,
and with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert, a rookie quarterback
behind that offensive line that does not have a left tackle,
I think this is more of like a wide receiver three.
In fantasy football. He's being drafted as the wide receiver
eighteen or wide receiver nineteen right now, and I understand, like, again,
another great football player, but you have to factor in situation,

(42:11):
and unfortunately he's not playing with Rivers anymore. He's playing
in a different team that has a great defense that
wants to run the football and is going to have,
you know, potentially one hundred plus fewer pass attempts. He's
at wide receiver twenty seven for me. So I'm in
complete agreement, Matt. It sounds like you agree. What are
your quick thoughts here? Yeah, I have a wide receiver
thirty one, and pretty much everything Tag said I agree with. Like,

(42:33):
I think there's a chance that Mike Williams is actually
the wide receiver one this year. Not necessarily in targets.
I could see Keenan still having more targets, but I
imagine that Williams will have more air yards and I
think he will be more efficient at turning his targets
into overall yardage. Absolutely. All right, guys, well let's move
on here to the quarterback or tight end. We get

(42:56):
to choose here which one we want to talk about.
So tags, I'm gonna send it to you. We're in
at either a quarterback or a tight end in the
top twelve that you think is going to disappoint Austin
Hooper terrible, Like why is his ADP still tight end ten?
I don't know, guys. All you have to do is
look at the Vikings last year and say that offense
was ideal in terms of like efficiency, and then you
look at it and you say, okay, Steph Kevin Stefanski's

(43:17):
come over. He's added two tackles to that offensive line.
He's added another tight end in the draft in the
fourth round. They extended they picked up the fifth year
option on David and Joke Wu's contract. They signed Austin Hooper.
They're trying to recreate what the Vikings had in terms
of Odell Beckham is going to be like the Stefon
Diggs or Adam Delan And then you have feeling Jarvis Landry.
It's like he's trying to recreate this. He's got the

(43:38):
two back system with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. All
of a sudden, there's just so many names around here,
and it's like, if there's not a whole lot of
passing volume, where does this go in? Looking at last year,
even if you were to combine combine Kyle Rudolph and
IRF Smith Junior, these guys combined for ninety five targets, Like,
that's ridiculous. David and Joke, who's not gonna walk out
there and see five or ten targets? They actually extend

(44:00):
a trade. He wanted a trade. They sat down with
him and he realized that he's going to have a
role on the team. So he's like, I take it back.
We're gonna be fine moving forward. It's basically saying, I
don't I don't think it's even close to a lock
that Austin Hooper even sees sixty targets this season, And
if you're drafting a tight end in the top ten,
like you better be sure that he's going to see
eighty plus targets because that's essentially what you're looking for

(44:21):
out of your tight end. One if you want to
start him out on every week basis. I think Austin
Hooper is going to be a streamer this year. I
think you're gonna find him on waiver wire sooner read
than later. You're wasting a pick at tight end ten.
Kyle Rudolph last year in sixteen games you mentioned it
tags forty eight total targets and that was the feeling
about eight games, right. He had six receiving touchdowns, which

(44:43):
may caused him to finish as the tight end fourteen.
So he was a back end tight end one. But
that's not what you want when you're drafting a tight end,
specifically at tight end ten. You want like if you
get a guy at you know you're drafting him with
your final pick, right, like one of these players that
you can get and you just go into the season
with the mindset that I'm streaming the position. And they
finished as the tight end fourteen, then great, like that

(45:05):
was that was good. But to get someone at tight
end ten and then have them finished below a tight
end one, that's not great. That's not what you want.
Matt where what are your thoughts here on Austin Hooper?
Do you kind of see this offense playing out similarly,
what do you see his role being, Like Hooper was
going to be the guy who's going to mention, So
one hundred percent agree. Basically, you could just play back

(45:26):
what Tag said and people would just assume it's meat. Yeah,
and Tags mentioned you know, maybe sixty targets, you know,
like we're a little uncertain about even that. I have
Hooper projected for around sixty three targets. I think it
is that type of situation where we're going to see
a very a very Minnesota Vikings esque type of offense

(45:48):
where uh, you know, it's very run focused, very funneled
through the running backs, and they're just you know, they're
not going to be enough targets to go around for Hooper.
So yeah, people, I mean, I think in Harper leagues,
maybe you know, they're starting to get hip to it
and push him down the board, but in a lot
of leagues, yeah, he's still going, as you know, tight

(46:09):
end eight to tight end ten, and that's just way
too high. I have him closer to let me see here,
like closer to like tight end nineteen. That's exactly where
I have him, you know, and it's you know, it's
a projection. I would say, like he probably has a
higher floor, you know, like he's going to have decent usage,
and I think that offense as a whole is going

(46:30):
to be better than it was last year, So you know,
there's some possibility for him, Like he's not going to
be a total bust, but he's not going to provide
the upside that you would want out of someone going
in the top twelve. So he's certainly someone I would
stay away from. But yeah, I mean I could pivot
to another guy if we want to talk about that. Yeah,

(46:51):
let's go, go ahead, bring up your guy. Okay. So
if I'm not looking at Austin Hooper as someone who
is a bus candidate, the guy I'm looking at be
Jared Cook. And this is, you know, probably a chalky answer,
but you know, he finished really well last year. But
he's going to have to compete for you targets with

(47:13):
obviously Michael Thomas in New Orleans and then they added
Emmanuel Sanders. Obviously you have Alvin Kamar there. So Jared
Cook is the number four option in this offense. And
Drew Brees was really efficient last year at turning his
pass attempts into touchdowns. I don't think he's going to
be quite as efficient this year. So I see Jared

(47:34):
Cook getting fewer targets, probably being a little less efficient
at turning his targets into yards, and then really taking
a step back in the touchdown department. So you know,
if you're looking at Jared Cook in ADP as someone
that you think might offer value as like the tight
end nine, tight end ten, I think you're going to
be disappointed. I think he's going to come in more

(47:55):
as a mid range tight end too. I'm in complete
agreement he was someone on my list. You look at
last season, sixty five targets, only sixty five targets. We
just finished talking about Kyle Rudolph finishing with you know,
fifty Jared Cook sixty five targets, seven hundred and five
receiving yards, sixteen point four yards per reception. That's ridiculous
for a Titan who's now thirty three years old to

(48:16):
average sixteen point four yards per reception. I don't see
that happening. But then here's the kicker nine receiving touchdowns
on sixty five targets, you know, forty three total receptions.
Like those numbers are all going to come crashing back
down when you factor in. Like you said, Matt Emmanuel
Sander is now a part of this offense. He's going
to be involved. Alvin Kamara was not healthy last year,
so he should see an uptick in targets again this season.

(48:38):
Bounced back to his average. And then they also spent
significant draft capital to go get Adam Troutman out of
Dayton Out. Troutman's not going to be heavily involved in
this offense, but he's going to take some work that
you know was going to Josh Hill last year. Right,
So Adam Troutman is more talented than Josh Hill, so
he's going to be just another factor where I look
at Jared Cook's average draft position and I'm like, no

(48:58):
way in hell am I going anywhere close to him. Tags.
This was funny. We were talking about Jared Cook early
on in the offseason. I shocked you that I had
him down like tight en eighteen or something like that,
and you were like, no, I have him up at seven.
And then you did projections. You were like he came
out to be like tight end twenty five or something
like that. Right, Like, so where are you at with
Jared Cook now? I've settled in it. Why a tight

(49:18):
ends sixteen is where I have him, And basically after
going through last year's volume, because tight ends volume volume volume,
that's really all you need to project. If you can
can correctly project volume, you will nail tight ends. And
Jared Cook last year was sixteenth among tight ends in
an actual opportunity in terms of like if you were
to break it down and say this is where he

(49:39):
was targeted, how much he should have scored, how much
he did score. He finished number seven. Again, he was no.
Number sixteen an opportunity, So you do have to say
he's playing with Drew Brees, so he's gonna have increased
efficiency more than the usual tight end. But then you
also have to dial back some of the targets, most
likely because he has Emmanuel Sanders now added to the offense.
So it's like trying to figure this out and say
that the Saints overall are probably gonna throw the ball

(50:00):
less because that defense is in as good as shape
as it's ever been. That team is prime for a
Super Bowl run. So yeah, Jared Cook getting up there
in age, all these things factored in, and on top
of that, Drew Brees too, I mean, Drew Brees, his
efficiency has to drop at some point. Guys, he's like,
how old is Breeze now? Forty one? Yeah, forty one
or forty two? Crazy? Man, it's crazy. Yeah. Quarterbacks used
to get to thirty eight and we'd be like, either

(50:22):
done right, right, exactly, all right, I'm gonna fly through
my guy. That's Evan Ingram. I've talked about him this offseason.
But for a guy who is going as a tight
end eight in ADP, and actually, here's the shocking part,
he's tight end six in ECR. So the experts are
higher on Evan Ingram and I do not get it
talking about a guy who is incredibly talented his rookie season,
but that was on the back of pure volume. Now

(50:42):
you're factoring in that he has significant injury risk and
that you have a very, very loaded receiving corps in
this offense that I do not see a path for
Evan Ingram to reach the target totals that he did
in his rookie season, which then inflated his numbers to
get him up to a top five finish. I do
not see him finishing anywhere close to where he's currently going.

(51:02):
I'm staying far far away from Evan Ingram. Matt, let's
get your really quick thoughts here and then we'll move
on to a fun little game. Yeah, I'm with you
on Evan Ingram, probably not to the extent that you are,
but he's not someone I've gotten a lot of and
you know, part of it, it's not really so much
the injury. It just has to do with that new
offense in New York under Jason Garrett. I expect it

(51:23):
to be, you know, something similar to what we saw
in Dallas before Kellen Moore. So an offense that plays
a little bit slower, leans a little bit more towards
the running back, and even funnels a decent number of
the targets through the running back. So I think it's
going to be a great year for sae Quon Barkley.
But I think that just means fewer opportunities for everyone

(51:43):
else in the receiving game, including Evan Ingram, who also
has to compete with Sternley Chepper, Golden Tate, and Darius
Layton for targets. Right yep, Okay, well, hey guys, let's
move on. We're gonna do a fun little game here
where we bring in help from our listeners. We posted
on Twitter yesterday for some suggestion on how to end
the phrase who is the most likely? Too? We got

(52:04):
some great responses here, and I'm just gonna go back
and forth with you guys and get your guys's rapid
fire responses. Sound good? Sounds good? All right? Tags? Who
is the most likely to be on the most championship
teams in twenty twenty? Oh well, I think it's boring
to say Christian McCaffrey. I'm trying to think of who
I should say instead of christ McAffrey. Who's a Calvin Ridley? Okay,

(52:25):
I like that one, Matt Who is the most likely
to be the best streaming quarterback in Week one? Week one?
I have no idea. I know that's a very I
know that's a very difficult question if you do not
have the schedules pulled up? Tags, do you have any idea?
Who's gonna be the quarterback one? Who is gonna who
is the most likely to be the best streaming quarterback
in Week one? I'm looking at it real quick. It

(52:47):
depends on who you say streamers, Because Ben Roethlisberger at
the Giant sounds like awfully enticing but it's a road game,
so I really don't like him that much. Tyrod Taylor
at Cincinnati, I think that's a good one. Yep, Yeah,
that would be one that I would say, Matt, I'll
go back to you. Who is the most likely to
be a second half of the year's stud second half
of the year's stud I think Antonio Gibson. And this

(53:08):
might be a kind of chalky answer now, and I
don't know if it really even matters because people are
probably overpricing him at this point, but I imagine that
in Washington we will see Adrian Peterson open the year
as the rushing leader in the backfield, but Antonio Gibson,
I think, even at that point early on, will probably
be the guy they rely on more in the receiving game,

(53:29):
but he will get opportunities in the running game, and
I think he will be explosive, just based on what
we've seen out of him in college, the athleticism that
he has, and eventually, just like we saw out of
David Johnson in his rookie season, I think in the
second half of the year, the team is going to
pivot away from Adrian Peterson and towards the guy who

(53:50):
is the well rounded back who has unreal athleticism. I
really like that answer, Tags, Is there someone that comes
to mind for a second half of the year's stud
I mean, Jonathan Taylor is gonna be an all year stud,
but he's gonna like really shine in the second half.
So Jonathan Taylor, I guess I like it. JK. Dobbins,
maybe Jake Maybe Jaka Dobbins was a better answer to
I think Taylor's gonna crush from the beginning? Yeah, yeah, Okay,
who is the most we got two? More so, who

(54:11):
is the most likely to lead all running backs in
receptions excluding Christian McCaffrey. Tags will go to you. I
think it's possible. It's it's Kimara Kimara. Matt, would you
have a different answer than Kimara? Would say, Quan come
into that consideration for you. I would go with Kimara.
The guy I would place maybe number two would actually
be Austin Ekeler. Okay, yeah, I think Eckler has a

(54:34):
pretty decent chance there. Yeah. We were talking about him
in a PPR mock draft that we did yesterday, and
I drafted him as my RB two because his value
in PPR full PPR Leaks is incredible this year. I'm
really really excited for him. Okay, final question here, I'll
have both of you answer at tags first, then Matt,
who is the most likely to drastically outperform their ADP?

(54:54):
These things are moving all the time, and it's getting
tougher and tougher to find that stuff. Hayden Hurst, that's
gonna be. That was someone that I was considering. Matt,
who do you have most likely to outperform his ADP? Okay,
so I could see let me let me set up
the framing for this. I could see a situation where
a guy who goes really late outperforms his ADP, but
it's not like enough to really make all that big

(55:16):
of a difference just in terms of like his fantasy
impact overall. So I'll say cam Acres because you can
get him as a low end RB three in a
lot of leagues, but I think he has top six upside.
Can I give another answer, like I thought about it.
You could take hayden Hurst. I'll take aj Green Yep.
That would make sense. All right, guys. That is all

(55:39):
that's all we've got for today. That would make sense.
That's all we've got for today. Guys, huge thank you
to Matthew Freedman for jumping on and chatting with us.
Thanks so much man, Yeah, my pleasure. You guys have
a good one. Yeah. Absolutely, don't forget to follow him
on Twitter if you don't already at Matt f The Oracle,
and guys, don't forget about the amazing giveaway that we
have going on. Once we reach seven thousand reviews on

(56:00):
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(56:21):
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(56:44):
gonna do it for today's show guys. For Mike Taglier
and Matt Freedman, I'm Kyle Yates and we'll see you
next time. I just wanted you to. I don't even
know how the came. The street barks like dogs inside,

(57:07):
digging into, digging into saying, deserving of trouble.