May 10, 2023 • 31 mins
Join Joe Pisapia and Derek Brown as they evaluate 12 high-upside players for the upcoming season and highlight their potential for success or failure in the upcoming season. Is it smart to take Kenneth Walker as a top-12 RB this season? The Pros will tell you!
Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:01 Breece Hall - 0:00:39 Ken Walker - 0:02:52 Travis Etienne - 0:06:06 J.K. Dobbins - 0:08:25 Dalvin Cook - 0:11:27 FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast - 0:14:36 Keenan Allen - 0:15:04 Deebo Samuel - 0:17:23 DJ Moore - 0:19:51 DeAndre Hopkins - 0:22:37 Anthony Richardson/Deshaun Watson - 0:24:26 Kyle Pitts - 0:27:14 Closing - 0:29:48
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey pa Joe Pisapia, and
today we're talking risk verse reward, perhaps the most important
conversation to have when it comes to fantasy football, because
we all want to finish first, and sometimes you gotta
be a little bold and fortune favors the bowld.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
That's what I learned in John Wick.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I believe and I'm telling you right now, some of
these players are worth investing in.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
In others maybe not so much. So we're gonna break
him down.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
We're gonna talk running backs, wide receivers, a tight end,
and some qbs to help me do it. As Debro
Derek Brown, the King of Bros. You know him from
the podcast as always, and let's just jump head first
right into it and talk about some of these players.
Let's start here with a running back that I know
is one that is already divisive. It's Breese Hall to
New York Jets. Breese Hall went on a hell of
(00:47):
a roun deebro last year. Everything was coming up Roses
until the injury. And now the ACL put him back.
We're going to hope that he comes back healthy this season.
The question is when and how healthy will he be?
Last year, there was some questions with some of these
running backste You had JK. Dobbins, you had Gus Edwards
coming off a cl tears. They did not look great
in the early going. So Breese Hall currently, as we're
(01:08):
looking at him halfpoint PPR rankings over on Fantasy bros
dot Com, he is RB eleven. How do you feel
about the risk versus rewardie taking the risk on Breis Hall?
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Joe, I think if I'm going to vacuum this and
just wrap it all nice and neat nippo, Yes, I'm
willing to sit here and take the risk on Breese
Hall because this is a guy. If you want to
talk about last year, in the small sample size we
got Joe, he was top three in every efficiency metric
that I care about, pff elusive rating, yards, have to
contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, and glory B. With Aaron Rodgers,
(01:46):
we're expecting somewhat competent quarterback that can only be the
greatest offense in the history of the NFL.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
I think we can all agree now, like.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
That's what it is, right, I mean, that's what the
Jets are hoping and if nothing else, I mean, come
on it me hope for Breese Hall just blowing the
top off of his ADP this year and really having
a banner season despite the ACL concerns.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
I struggle with this one a little bit because I
love Brecehall the player. I like the landing spot, all
Jet jokes aside. I'll try not to make anymore no
promises the rest.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Of the show.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
But when you're going around the same spot as where
Andre Stevenson and Naji Harris, yep, that's where I struggle
with Breese Hall because I know those guys are healthy
right now going into the season, as of right now
of us recording this, So to me, it's too risky.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
I wanted to be my RB two.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
And maybe he could be as time goes on, but
I only feel like this ADP is going to get
a little higher as we get closer and closer and
people get more and more excited.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
So that's where I struggle.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
So D's ready to go jump in the pool with
two feet when it comes to Breese Hall, I am not.
I'm gonna stay outside of the pool, just dip my
toes if the water is the right temperature, which I
doubt it's going to be. It's gonna be frigid. Let's
get to another running back here. Let's talk about ken
Walker now this situation. See how I've got a little
money after the draft. We have Sharbonnag there now, who
(03:01):
projects like a three down back. We have Kenneth Walker,
who we thought was going to be the lead guy
now not so much. When we're looking at ken Walker's
ADP and his ECR over a fantasypros dot com, Walker's
going at RB fourteen, so interesting spot here for him.
We're kind of hedging. I don't know if this is
gonna go up. It feels like it's going to go down.
But Derek, talk to me about Kennth Walker. Are you
(03:21):
ready to take a risk on him?
Speaker 3 (03:23):
No, you want to talk about the kiddie pool. I
want nothing to do with this rating.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
His place, of all, the kiddie pool is extremely red.
That place is full of germs, the horrible, horrible things.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
I mean, that's kind of like what ken Walker is
right now. Like the pools full of pee. We were
not sure if we need to step into it or
to take a bath after we leave the pool. It's
bad man, and his ADP is dipping a little bit,
like he's down to our and I say down, he's
down to RB twelve. Like did nobody see that Zach
Charbada was drafted to Seattle? Taking Ken Walker as an
(03:58):
RB one is lunacy to me, Like, I don't understand
that at all. It's like people just pretended like the
Charbonay pick never happened. Seattle last year was twenty second
rushing attempts. We're talking about a team that was top
twelve in neutral passing rate and they added Yeah, they
added Sharbonay. They also added JSN in the first round,
(04:20):
So are they gonna pass less? I just don't see
where people are coming from with this. Like, after Walker
took over as the starter last year, he had one
hundred percent of the carries inside the five yard line.
There is no way Joe that you could tie him
into that type of opportunity that he has that stranglehold
(04:40):
on these high value touches this year. Now I am
out on ken Walker. Ken Walker feels like you go
to the pool in the middle of the summer and
you're like, I haven't really gotten a lot of exposure
in drafts or to the sun I'm just gonna go
with no sunscreen and just bake. That's exactly how he feels,
just inviting soun burn and pain.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Well, despite my olive complexion, I would I would also
not go out in the sun here for ken Walker.
I will not do that and I never burn. I
go out there, I'm ten twenty minutes for the rest
of the summer.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
It's a beautiful thing.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Twenty minutes, I'll look like a lobster.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yes, yes, yes, that could attest to this. But you
look at the current FFPC range for him.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
He is going at two twelve as we're talking about,
and that is tough because that's a big investment.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Still, I expect that to fall.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
And if you're wondering what I'm talking about, that's the
Fantasy Pros Championship, the FFPC that we're running this year.
So if you want to go ahead and enter that,
we want you to, so go and do it right
now Fantasypros dot Com and you could go to Fantasypros
dot Com Slash Championship in order to go ahead and
get involved in that. And it's pretty amazing. Coudre getting
(05:53):
away a million dollars. Can you believe that Derek around
a million dollars for playing fantasy football. Unbelievable. I use
that promo code Fantasy Pros too. When you sign up
you get twenty five dollars off that in uh, that
opportunity to go ahead and play in the Fantasy Pros Championship. Now,
when we're going to another running back here, I want
to talk about Travis Etn because this is a player
where we've seen flashes from Travis etm. We've seen opportunities
(06:15):
for him obviously increased last year. Tank is there now too,
So I don't know if that muddy's the water for you,
but Travis Etn currently in that same Fantasy Pros Championship. ADP,
you're talking about RB fourteen. That seems reasonable, but is
it too risky?
Speaker 3 (06:31):
It's way too risky. I mean, we just talked about
Ken Walker, him and Travis Etn the Spider Man gift
this year, Joe like, and people are understanding it. Well,
I say that, I hope they understand it. Apparently ADP
doesn't with sharbon A, but people are doing the same thing.
They're just looking and glossing over the fact that Tank
will arrived to this team in the third round. That's
(06:53):
significant draft capital, and it's like, what story are you
telling yourself by drafting Travis Etn. So over the last
three or four days, he's dropped to RB fifteen. He's
in the middle of the third round, right after Najie Harris,
right around where Aaron Jones is going, like, give me
both of those players over Travis Etn because what story
(07:13):
are you telling yourself With Travis Etn. It's like, Okay, well,
he's supposed to be a pass catching back. He didn't
even sniff an eight percent target share last year, but
apparently we're just overlooking that. It's like, well, he was
good in college, so supposedly, but he didn't get targets
last year. Now we have Tank in house, do we
really think that Travis Etn? Can we just sew him
(07:36):
in to all the early down work we saw last year,
that type of snapshare, the red zone attempts. I can't so,
I no, I'm out man, give me wide receivers or
give me these other running backs like in these same
spots with Etn. Eh, I'm out.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Well, I look at Tank Bisby.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
You know that EP is so far down the trough,
Like that's when you started throwing darts of guys and
ATM's missed some time all right early in his career,
had some injury issues last two miss his entire rookie season.
He's going higher right now in the ECR in terms
of rank over fancypros dot Com. He is going higher
than Breese Hall even which to me is crazy. He's
at ten in half PPR, which that's just way too
(08:14):
risky for me. I'm with you, I'm out right now
at that cost. If it gets better, I'm listening. But
I'm looking at taking shots on guys like Damian Pierce,
you know, at nineteen as a much better situation potentially,
as we continue to look at the running backs. Let's
talk about another one here, JK. Dobbins of the Baltimore
Ravens Now Dobbins. Last year, the stop and start was tough.
You know, people were very excited Ravens like th roun
(08:36):
the football. I know it's a different offensive coordinator. I
don't know how different of a philosophy it's going to be.
We're gonna find that out. So there's a little unknown,
which is risk. There's the risk of you know the
fact that he did stop and start last year coming
off the ACL injury. There is reward because he had
that four game stretch where he had three or four
games over ninety yards, two over one hundred and twenty.
(08:57):
Do you think that JK Dobbins at her current adp
early on, when we're looking at where he's going off
the board at the seventeenth running back, do you think
that's too risky or is that a good reward at
that number?
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Oh? No, Give me all the JK. Dobbins I could
possibly handle.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
I want all of it.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
Give it to me. Give it to me now. JK
Dobbins is at a great spot, Joe, because people are
drafting JK. Dobbins like they have in previous seasons. Like
it's the same offense, the same things are gonna happen.
He's gonna split carries with Gus Edwards and maybe just
As Hill and all these are the shlubs on this
depth chart. I don't see that happening. Man, It's not
(09:35):
gonna happen. You look at Todd Munkin over the last
two years as an offensive coordinator, he fed top ten
opportunity shares to yes, Nick Chubb was one of those
seventy three percent of the opportunities in Cleveland, but also
Peyton Barber is in that mix as well. Man he
got sixty eight percent of the opportunities and for the
Buccaneers that year, Todd Munkin is gonna give JK. Dobbins
(09:58):
more of this backfield. And you were talking about a
guy that when we have seen him healthy somewhat healthy
on the NFL field, he has been one of the
most elusive running backs in the NFL in its two seasons,
twentieth and eighth in yard s, touch of contact per attempt.
Now you're telling me he could sniff upwards of sixty
percent opportunity share in an offense that also with Monken
(10:21):
three of his last four years as an offensive coordinator
top twelve a neutral script pace. So even if they
don't pass more, Greg Roman and his antiquated ways are gone,
we're going to look at more play volume and he
could own more of this backfield and none of that
is being equated into his ADP Give me all well.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
Look and which competent receiver play for once? Yes, sir,
that also opens things up, you know, because that's the
whole thing. It's like they've become so predictable the last
couple of years. It's easy to defend the Ravens because
you gotta know what they're doing. Now, all of a sudden,
if Odell can play, if Jay Jones looks like he
is going say flowers, excuse me, looks like he's going
to be something, then all of a sudden, you've got
some real opportunity there where you can open up this
(11:02):
offense and make it easier for JK.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Dobbins. I'm gonna tell you this too.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
Maybe it's a hot take, I don't know, but I
can see Jamiir Gibbs, Damian Pierce. I could see Joe
Mixon as time goes on, all of those guys starting
to go ahead of him as we get deeper into
draft season.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
And AJK will hop him too.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Yeah, JK is going to continue to slide down that
trough you watch, and that's when he really becomes a
good reward risk player. Now I'm going to go on
the reward side with you on Dobbins. All right, one
more RB I want to talk about because every year
it's the inevitable discussion of this is the end of
Dalvin Cook. And I feel like every year we talk
about this, and every year we get more and more concerned,
and to be honest, you know, in twenty nineteen he
(11:40):
was RB three in half BPR. In twenty twenty he
was RB two. Twenty twenty one obviously missed a couple
of games there, so just thirteen games played.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
He was RB fifteen, but RB eight last year. I'm
always trying to be ahead of the curve.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I'm always worried about guys who've been in the league
five six years of this position, and that's where we're
at right now. When it comes to Dalvin Cook. Look
but he didn't trade him. It's still a very good offense.
Do you think Dalvin Cook at the discount you're getting
him again this year, is once again going to return
better than the investment.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
No, I'm out on Dalvin Cook. And I have been
a very big proponent of Dalvin Cook over the last
few years. I've loved his talent, loved his skill set.
But we're looking at you're talking about the age Cliff Joe,
and even if we want to sit here and run
the rumor mill here and talk about, okay, what if
he goes to South Beach, he goes to Miami, I
don't look at that as being a better thing for him,
if anything, his volume goes down. But let's talk about
(12:34):
the vikings just now, you know what, Let's just talk
about Dalvin Cook the player, in the sense that everything
is screaming to me that the age cliff is coming
or it's already here and I'm out man Like, over
his final seven games last year, he only had one
game where he logged over three point zero yards after
contact per attempt. He had his second lowest breakaway percentage
(12:57):
of his entire career and the low whist yards per
route run of his entire career.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
All of his.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
Screens that if he's not at the cliff, he's driving
even closer to it, and it's peering over the side
and saying, you know what, it might not be too
bad down there. And I don't want any part of
that for Dalvin Cook. Like you look at where he's
going in drafts right now, and I'm looking at FFPC
Fantasy pros ADP. Give me Aaron Jones in the same round,
(13:24):
Give me JK. Dobbins a round after. Hell, dude, give
me Damian Piercer cam Akers in the sixth round, two
rounds after Dalvin Cook. I'll go with both of those
guys over Dalvin Cook easily.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
I'm not easily on this one.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
To me, this is tougher because Aaron Jones doesn't well,
I'll tell you why. Look, you know me, I was
the guy was out on Zeke earlier. I was always
trying to I'm with you, I'm steering with you in
that car, I'm taking the wheel with you, and we're
trying to get back on the road. However, in this
grouping of running backs, Aaron Jones doesn't have Aaron Rodgers anymore.
And I don't know what this offense is going to
be interms scoring opportunity.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
So that's going to change the dynamic of Jones. JK.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Dobbins again, I'm with you. I like where things are going.
But Dalvin Cook's been there, done that many times. Pierce,
I also think, is on his way up. That's an
arrow going up, but hasn't done it yet. Jamiir gives
as a rookie Acres again. Maybe Sean McVay likes him today,
maybe not tomorrow. If I'm gonna be down here in
the dirty water with these guys, at least Dalvin Cook.
(14:26):
To me, you know that boat has less holes in it,
like I know I've seen that boat get to shore
more than one occasion, so that's not the greatest metaphor,
but hey, I'm doing the best I can now. If
you want some breakdowns of these players, we're talking about
just obviously twenty twenty three re draft leagues, but if
you want like the long term look of these guys,
Fits and Bogman are doing a terrific job of looking
at these players on the Dynasty podcast, which is on
(14:48):
the same feed here at Fantasy Pros on our YouTube channel.
You can go listen to the podcast wherever you get
your pods to, but the Dynasty Football Podcast, the long
term and short term value of these guys too, from
that perspective is fascinating. I know they're breaking those guys
down quite a bit. Go check it out. The wide receivers,
let's talk about an old man like you and me,
Keenan Allen. This is a wide receiver coming off an
(15:10):
injury plague season but was productive when he was there.
Mike Williams is never there, so as long as Keenan
Allen is there, I feel like this is a good
reward with a guy that annually feels underappreciated, undervalue do
you get that same sense where there's risk with Keenan
Allen because of the age, because of the injuries last year,
but the reward is so solid at the ADP that
(15:31):
he's currently going out because you're looking at it right
now and he's the eighteenth wide receiver in ECR and
Fantasy pros.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
I don't understand. Do people think that Keenan Allen's going
to retire mid season? Don't really get it.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
Might have retired last season.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
I mean, seriously, dude, even if you want to talk
about this being recency biased. Okay, fine, let's go to
the most recent sample. Do we have out of Keenan
Allen from weeks twelve through eighteen, Top ten and PFF
receiving grade top twenty yards per route run, top fifteen
in target share and targets per route run. What are
we doing here? People? You're getting Keenan Allen as a
(16:08):
wide receiver two and in mini spots a low end
wide receiver two. That is insane value that I'm just
gonna tippel out the biggest spoon and I'm gonna look
like Zeke with a cereal bawl and just go to
town baby, like this is awesome because now you have
Kellen Moore is in town. This offense is gonna have
higher paced, higher passing rate. Justin Herbert's gonna get back
(16:29):
to throwing down the field. And yeah, we got concerns
about Mike Williams. I would sit here and say it's
a healthier bet to sit here and make the bet
that Keenan Allen can stay healthy and on the field
than ever for Mike Williams. Keenan Allen is a low
end wide receiver two. If he's healthy, he's a high
end wide receiver one. He is going to I mean,
he's gonna get close to touching one hundred perceptions this year.
(16:51):
I'm gonna be gobbling up all this value as long
as it presents itself. This is insane to me.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
I'm with you, I'm in I think it's a bounce
back year for her I actually bought him in Dynasty
real cheap actually just.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
A week ago, where I got him for a third
round twenty twenty four pick. And I'm a win now
team right now in that Dynasty league, so he could
be had out there. But in terms of the investment, again,
it's got so much upside and doesn't feel like a
lot of risk, you know. I mean, it's the same
spotted a couple other guys we're going to talk about
who are in the same range. Deebo Samuel is not
in this range, but the next two guys we're gonna
talk about are. But let's go up the board a
(17:25):
little bit to Deebo because that's a little bit higher.
He's above Keenan Allen against similar range. He is the
seventeenth wide receiver. Now, we all thought there would be
some regression based off of how amazing twenty twenty one
was where he's wide receiver three and half point PPR.
Last year he finished with wide receiver thirty two. Yes,
there were injuries, Yes he missed some time, but also
the quarterback play drop off certainly had a lot to
(17:46):
do with it. Also, and you know they did acquire
some guy named Christian McCaffrey. So, with that being said,
is this current cost of Deebo Samuel as we entered
these conversations too risky?
Speaker 3 (17:57):
This current cost makes no sense. Again, I feel like
people are blindfolding themselves and saying, oh, these things didn't happen.
This isn't didn't happen. These are all fictitious. You know,
Keenan Allen was not healthy. All these running backs have
no risk. Oh look at Debo.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
He's still the.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Same guy that blew the top off, not last year
but the year before.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
He's not.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
He lost that role, like his a dot went back
into the tank. People, you're talking about a guy. Then
I'm not even talking about the CMC stuff because I
looked at the splits for CMC without CMC, his target
share was almost identical. His targets per reute run were
almost identical, Like both of them were twenty seven percent
with CMC without CMC, with a fully healthy DEBO. But
(18:40):
if you look at the high leverage stuff and it's
gone Joe. His deep targets went from almost won a
game to point four, So he's not getting deep shots
down the field. His red zone targets in eight games
with Christian McCaffrey, he only got four. So what are
we talking about here. We're talking about a run heavy
team and a wide receiver that's not getting deep looks
(19:02):
and he's not getting red zone looks. So he's an
empty PPR machine on a run heavy team and we're saying, yeah,
we want to take that jump before Keenan Allen before
some of these other wide receivers, before Calvin Ridley. No,
I'm not doing that. I'm staying far away from Deebo.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
There's no Keenan Allen's right next door and I want
to go over his house and have some coffee and
case like, that's that's where I'm going, Like, hell.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Let's party at Keenan Allen's house.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
Party. Keenan Allen's older and coming off an injury, but
Deebo also is a guy's been injury played throughout his career,
so we could also bring that to the equation if
we're gonna be fair and honest. But I think of
the same look back to back. Basically, give me Keenan
Allen because I think it's a more consistent weekly basis
of what I'm getting and I like that, and I
think he's got high floor some weeks too. It's not
that Deebo is not a guy on want, but at
(19:50):
that ADP, I think it's tricky. What about DJ Moore,
who's going right after Keenan Allen. It's funny because these
guys are right in this cluster together that we're talking
about here, and they all have fair amount of risk.
The risk with DJ Moore is it's a new scenario.
We've never seen him with Justin Fields, We've never seen
him in this offense. Maybe everything jeils right away, but
I think all of us have a lot of rugburn
last year from the Denver Bronco situation, all the different
(20:13):
chairs of all different players, so we know what can
go wrong, what can go right for DJ Moore, and
is it worth investing in at the current ADP.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
I'm so divided on DJ Moore, like I have so many,
so many feels because I love the player, I love
the talent. I will take shots on DJ Moore in
some drafts, more along the lines of the ones where
I maybe I pair him with Justin Fields in a vacuum, Joe,
I'm going to tell you that I'm out. And this
(20:43):
all comes down to I look at DJ Moore's like
his situation, and I feel like he is going to
have to thread the needle to pay off on this ADP.
Hell just immediate, man, Like, if you look at DJ Moore, yes,
over the last two years, twenty eight percent target chair
he's averaged. That's fantastic. But we can't just necessarily say
that that's gonna happen in Chicago for a team that
(21:06):
we saw they only threw the ball three hundred and
seventy seven times last year. Even if you want to
craft a narrative to where maybe they get into the
four hundreds four point fifty range and that's a decent
jump and passing rate, maybe it happens, but maybe it doesn't.
Even at four hundred and fifty passing attempts, you're talking
(21:27):
about if he garners, if he garners the same targets here,
he's in the range of like one hundred and twenty targets.
That's a lot of like what ifs to me, Joe,
and for me, I'll just rather go down the board
like guys that are going in a similar range to
where DJ Moore is going right now, Christian Watson, Okay,
I'd rather go with him around after Jered Jack's triculent.
(21:51):
Those guys are so close to me because I like
DJ morris pedigree a little like just a little bit
more like I know what I'm getting. I don't know
what Jordan Love is going to be here. I have
a lot of I still have some faith. Maybe it's
misguided in what justin Fields can become at the NFL level,
and I think.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
There's a certain cap of Jordan Love.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
But I hear you like Watson's that really intriguing guy
in that same range. There's no doubt about that. And
then see I'm in on more because outside of Watson,
maybe Drake London, who I'm sure you were gonna bring up.
I can only imagine I.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Was gonna be the next name.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
I've done enough shows with you to know when the
Drake London situation is coming. Tyler Lockett's another guy. Jerry
Judy's another guy. Like there's some numbers there, but I'll
tell you what I think. As we have closer draft season,
DJ Moore is going to go behind those guys. And
when he does, if he becomes my wide receiver three,
that's when I'm in on DJ Moore. Where do you
stay with DeAndre Hopkins, Who's the next guy on the
(22:40):
list here as we kind of go down because he
is at he is at wide receiver twenty right now,
DJ Moore is at nineteen and a half point PPR.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
We all know.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
Hopkins' borderline Hall of Fame career. He's been incredible.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
I don't know how much Kyler Murray's gonna play this year.
Speaker 1 (22:54):
I really don't. Like I'm not investing as though he's
going to play at all. That's my take on the situation,
because they're going to be bad, and once you're bad,
you want that higher pick, so you might as well
be healthy. What do you think about Hopkins? Do you
think he gets traded? Is he worth the situation right
now of where his draft capital is in terms of
risk reward?
Speaker 3 (23:11):
If you're taking shots on Hopkins, it's only with the hope.
For me, it's only with the hope that he gets
traded in the current situation that he's in. Again, I'm
with you, Joe, like, I don't know how much we
see Kyler this year, and yeah, like you could sit
here and craft a narrative. Okay. Three starts with McCoy.
He was a wide receiver twelve, wide receiver twelve and
oh wait wait a minute wide receiver thirty as well,
(23:32):
So small sample size, but like he drops back into
he is going to be in that scenario, a volume
dependent wide receiver two, which is where he's going. And
I have a problem crafting you a good narrative, like
did Hopkins look like he fell off a map. As
far as from a talent standpoint, last year no wide
(23:53):
receiver nine at Fantasy points per game, he was seventeenth
in yards per route run. But I worry about this
offensive situation, like this team.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Could be bad, like legitimately, or they could be worse
than an NFL bad.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
It's a bad roster.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
We all know that. And I'll tell you this.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
I think when you look at Hopkins, I feel like
this is another guy too. He's there now because of
the name brand recognition. But then as we start hyping
the next guy and this guy and the Drake Lunnon,
this guy, he's gonna slide down right now.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
It's too high for the risk yep.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
I think when we get to twenty four or twenty
five with Hopkins, then I'm all the years I'm listening.
Then let's talk about quarterback here. I want to throw
two guys at you, Anthony Richardson, who hasn't played it
down in the NFL and Deshaun Watson, who has had
several top five quarterback finishes in his fantasy career. So
one guy's done it, but looked like a far removed
version of himself last year coming off the suspension hadn't
(24:43):
played football for a very long time, and it showed
he was very slow out of the gate with the football.
He was a slowest in the NFL getting rid of
the football and making the decisions. That's a problem. It
didn't look better as it went. That's what I was
hoping for. And then again Anthony Richardson, which is all
glitz and glamour and all of the upside they could
we handled, but none of you know the actual credibility
that we can bank off. So in a single quarterback league,
(25:07):
would you take a risk on Deshaun Watson knowing that
he's done it before, or would you go draft of
Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers and then draft of Richardson
for the upside and go that route instead.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Give me all the Anthony Richardson I can handle this year, man.
I want it all, all, all, all all, this This
is a this was the landing spot that we all wanted.
He's got Jonathan Taylor's got Michael Pittman Alec Pearce around him.
And the thing about Anthony Richardson is his floor.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
If he runs like.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
We think he's gonna run, Joe and I believe he
is going to he's a top twelve quarterback. I don't
think that we get that like Adam Watson. You're assuming
more risk and he's going higher right now in FFPC,
He's going two rounds ahead of Richardson. I'm not going
to pay the cost for Watson at that when I
can get Anthony Richardson two rounds later. And I look
(25:58):
at the floor is higher and the ceiling is comparable.
Like with Anthony Richardson, if he runs even and I'm
not even talking about him throwing, well, I think that
he has got the same type of bet as a
floor play. But the upside for Richardson is even higher. Man,
I want the washing numbers at you, and throw some
numbers at you. Last year, Justin Fields finishes QB five.
(26:22):
He threw for just twenty two hundred yards, but he
rushed for one thousand.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
That enough.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
That's that's beautiful to me.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
That's beautiful.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
It might be ugly sometimes, but it's gonna be pretty
from a point too, especially if he gets rushing touch.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
It's week winning. On certain weeks he will win you
a week. And I can't say that about Deshaun Watson
right now, man, And I know I've brought this stat
up a few different shows, but for anybody tuning into this,
I'll bring it up one more time. Man, Anthony Richardson.
I look back over the last nine years, and we
had twenty one quarterbacks in this sample that finished with
(26:53):
less than four thousand passing yards but over five hundred
rushing yards. Eighty five percent of those guys, we're top
twelve quarterbacks eighty five thirty eight percent of them thirty
eight we're top five quarterbacks and fantasy points per game.
If you're telling me that's the bet I'm making with
any of Richardson, I'm loving it, love.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
It all day. Let's talk tight end.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Now.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Last year we did a lot of shows together, probably
about seven hundred and forty two of them. In seven
hundred and forty of them, I told you that Marcus
Mariota is going to ruin Kyle.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Pitt and he did, he did so.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
But we move on. Now it's Desmond Ridder. I don't know,
you know how much better we're gonna all of a
sudden think now, But the difference is this year, the
cost isn't the same, so we're Kyle Pitts was the
tight end three or four, right, now he's tight end six,
he's just sitting in the middle. Now we've seen what
the reward is, but the question is he worth the
risk in twenty twenty three with this offense with Bijon
(27:51):
there now, but a different quarterback with Ridder.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
I know he didn't show you too much, but what
do you think of Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Is that a business you're going to be in in
twenty twenty three?
Speaker 3 (28:00):
This is just a straight bet on talent and looking
at Kyle Pitts, I'll bet on that talent ten times
out of ten looking at where he's going. Yeah, it's
a tough pill to swallow when you look at other ADPs,
like when I can get Darren Waller in a lot
of sense, like around maybe two rounds after Kyle Pitts.
Sure give me all that sauce. But as far as
(28:22):
Kyle Pits in a vacuum, Yeah, man, I'm still buying
into it. Because everybody can talk about how much of
a disappointment Kyle Pits was last year, but the numbers
that I care about that still scream. He has elite
upside at the position is the fact that he dominates
versus man coverage in every single one of these elite
tight ends in fantasy. You see this consistently out of
these guys, and we saw it from Kyle Pitts last year.
(28:45):
He was thirteenth in yards per run against man coverage,
eighth and PFF receiving grade against man coverage. If you're
telling me that he could beat man coverage, you could
play on the outside. Look, the quarterback situation still could change.
I'm not going to rule out that maybe they trade
for Ryan tanneer Hill at some point, or Desmond Mitter,
which I've been calling him because I'm not a fan
of at all.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
Clever. That's when the kids like to say mid I wish.
Speaker 3 (29:08):
I consider and say that I came up with that name.
I did not, but I was sure as hell use
it when I can. I'm still gonna buy into Kyle Pitts, man,
it's a bet on top.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
I'll say this.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
I'll buy at six because after six you got Darren
Waller who's never on the field, Evan Ingram who had
a nice season last year. So Ingram was good, but
then he's got to repeat it. And now Calvin Ridley's
back against Muddy and Joku Schultz with the Houston Texans
like it's it's rough in the streets.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Okay, Like, So that to me is exactly what was like.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
You take the shot on Kyle Pits because if he
doesn't perform well, then you're just hitting the waiver wire
and you're looking because all those other guys are probably
gonna be interchangeable on the waiver wire anyway, so at
least take the shot on him.
Speaker 2 (29:46):
So to me, that makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Now, if you want to see how different people have
these players that we're talking about that are risk reward ranked,
go to Fantasy bros dot com and check out the
cheat sheets. You could see Dee bros Ranks versus Erickson's
versus Friedman's and you could see all the comparisons.
Speaker 2 (29:59):
Would a great tool there, Fantasypros dot Com.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
And of course we want you to win a million dollars,
so don't forget Fantasypros dot Com Slash Championship. That's what
you're gonna go out there, million dollar first prize. We're
giving away subs to well, not like food, but subscriptions
to our incredible premium products as well. And on top
of which, we're giving you a lot of opportunities to
to get in early to that contest. So if you
use the promo code Fantasy Pros, you get in twenty
(30:24):
five dollars off your entry, and if you sign up
by June first and complete your draft by the fifteenth,
you get the thirty five dollars early bird credit.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
Again.
Speaker 1 (30:31):
This FPCs Fantasy Pros Championship for a million dollar prize.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
It's gonna be awesome.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Play fantasy football, be a millionaire sounds good to me.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Debro.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy Pros.
Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy
Football Podcast. It is me Joey pa Joe Pisapia, and
today we're talking risk verse reward, perhaps the most important
conversation to have when it comes to fantasy football, because
we all want to finish first, and sometimes you gotta
be a little bold and fortune favors the bowld.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
That's what I learned in John Wick.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
I believe and I'm telling you right now, some of
these players are worth investing in.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
In others maybe not so much. So we're gonna break
him down.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
We're gonna talk running backs, wide receivers, a tight end,
and some qbs to help me do it. As Debro
Derek Brown, the King of Bros. You know him from
the podcast as always, and let's just jump head first
right into it and talk about some of these players.
Let's start here with a running back that I know
is one that is already divisive. It's Breese Hall to
New York Jets. Breese Hall went on a hell of
(00:47):
a roun deebro last year. Everything was coming up Roses
until the injury. And now the ACL put him back.
We're going to hope that he comes back healthy this season.
The question is when and how healthy will he be?
Last year, there was some questions with some of these
running backste You had JK. Dobbins, you had Gus Edwards
coming off a cl tears. They did not look great
in the early going. So Breese Hall currently, as we're
(01:08):
looking at him halfpoint PPR rankings over on Fantasy bros
dot Com, he is RB eleven. How do you feel
about the risk versus rewardie taking the risk on Breis Hall?
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Joe, I think if I'm going to vacuum this and
just wrap it all nice and neat nippo, Yes, I'm
willing to sit here and take the risk on Breese
Hall because this is a guy. If you want to
talk about last year, in the small sample size we
got Joe, he was top three in every efficiency metric
that I care about, pff elusive rating, yards, have to
contact per attempt, breakaway percentage, and glory B. With Aaron Rodgers,
(01:46):
we're expecting somewhat competent quarterback that can only be the
greatest offense in the history of the NFL.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
I think we can all agree now, like.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
That's what it is, right, I mean, that's what the
Jets are hoping and if nothing else, I mean, come
on it me hope for Breese Hall just blowing the
top off of his ADP this year and really having
a banner season despite the ACL concerns.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
I struggle with this one a little bit because I
love Brecehall the player. I like the landing spot, all
Jet jokes aside. I'll try not to make anymore no
promises the rest.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Of the show.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
But when you're going around the same spot as where
Andre Stevenson and Naji Harris, yep, that's where I struggle
with Breese Hall because I know those guys are healthy
right now going into the season, as of right now
of us recording this, So to me, it's too risky.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
I wanted to be my RB two.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
And maybe he could be as time goes on, but
I only feel like this ADP is going to get
a little higher as we get closer and closer and
people get more and more excited.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
So that's where I struggle.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
So D's ready to go jump in the pool with
two feet when it comes to Breese Hall, I am not.
I'm gonna stay outside of the pool, just dip my
toes if the water is the right temperature, which I
doubt it's going to be. It's gonna be frigid. Let's
get to another running back here. Let's talk about ken
Walker now this situation. See how I've got a little
money after the draft. We have Sharbonnag there now, who
(03:01):
projects like a three down back. We have Kenneth Walker,
who we thought was going to be the lead guy
now not so much. When we're looking at ken Walker's
ADP and his ECR over a fantasypros dot com, Walker's
going at RB fourteen, so interesting spot here for him.
We're kind of hedging. I don't know if this is
gonna go up. It feels like it's going to go down.
But Derek, talk to me about Kennth Walker. Are you
(03:21):
ready to take a risk on him?
Speaker 3 (03:23):
No, you want to talk about the kiddie pool. I
want nothing to do with this rating.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
His place, of all, the kiddie pool is extremely red.
That place is full of germs, the horrible, horrible things.
Speaker 3 (03:35):
I mean, that's kind of like what ken Walker is
right now. Like the pools full of pee. We were
not sure if we need to step into it or
to take a bath after we leave the pool. It's
bad man, and his ADP is dipping a little bit,
like he's down to our and I say down, he's
down to RB twelve. Like did nobody see that Zach
Charbada was drafted to Seattle? Taking Ken Walker as an
(03:58):
RB one is lunacy to me, Like, I don't understand
that at all. It's like people just pretended like the
Charbonay pick never happened. Seattle last year was twenty second
rushing attempts. We're talking about a team that was top
twelve in neutral passing rate and they added Yeah, they
added Sharbonay. They also added JSN in the first round,
(04:20):
So are they gonna pass less? I just don't see
where people are coming from with this. Like, after Walker
took over as the starter last year, he had one
hundred percent of the carries inside the five yard line.
There is no way Joe that you could tie him
into that type of opportunity that he has that stranglehold
(04:40):
on these high value touches this year. Now I am
out on ken Walker. Ken Walker feels like you go
to the pool in the middle of the summer and
you're like, I haven't really gotten a lot of exposure
in drafts or to the sun I'm just gonna go
with no sunscreen and just bake. That's exactly how he feels,
just inviting soun burn and pain.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Well, despite my olive complexion, I would I would also
not go out in the sun here for ken Walker.
I will not do that and I never burn. I
go out there, I'm ten twenty minutes for the rest
of the summer.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
It's a beautiful thing.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Twenty minutes, I'll look like a lobster.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Yes, yes, yes, that could attest to this. But you
look at the current FFPC range for him.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
He is going at two twelve as we're talking about,
and that is tough because that's a big investment.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Still, I expect that to fall.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
And if you're wondering what I'm talking about, that's the
Fantasy Pros Championship, the FFPC that we're running this year.
So if you want to go ahead and enter that,
we want you to, so go and do it right
now Fantasypros dot Com and you could go to Fantasypros
dot Com Slash Championship in order to go ahead and
get involved in that. And it's pretty amazing. Coudre getting
(05:53):
away a million dollars. Can you believe that Derek around
a million dollars for playing fantasy football. Unbelievable. I use
that promo code Fantasy Pros too. When you sign up
you get twenty five dollars off that in uh, that
opportunity to go ahead and play in the Fantasy Pros Championship. Now,
when we're going to another running back here, I want
to talk about Travis Etn because this is a player
where we've seen flashes from Travis etm. We've seen opportunities
(06:15):
for him obviously increased last year. Tank is there now too,
So I don't know if that muddy's the water for you,
but Travis Etn currently in that same Fantasy Pros Championship. ADP,
you're talking about RB fourteen. That seems reasonable, but is
it too risky?
Speaker 3 (06:31):
It's way too risky. I mean, we just talked about
Ken Walker, him and Travis Etn the Spider Man gift
this year, Joe like, and people are understanding it. Well,
I say that, I hope they understand it. Apparently ADP
doesn't with sharbon A, but people are doing the same thing.
They're just looking and glossing over the fact that Tank
will arrived to this team in the third round. That's
(06:53):
significant draft capital, and it's like, what story are you
telling yourself by drafting Travis Etn. So over the last
three or four days, he's dropped to RB fifteen. He's
in the middle of the third round, right after Najie Harris,
right around where Aaron Jones is going, like, give me
both of those players over Travis Etn because what story
(07:13):
are you telling yourself With Travis Etn. It's like, Okay, well,
he's supposed to be a pass catching back. He didn't
even sniff an eight percent target share last year, but
apparently we're just overlooking that. It's like, well, he was
good in college, so supposedly, but he didn't get targets
last year. Now we have Tank in house, do we
really think that Travis Etn? Can we just sew him
(07:36):
in to all the early down work we saw last year,
that type of snapshare, the red zone attempts. I can't so,
I no, I'm out man, give me wide receivers or
give me these other running backs like in these same
spots with Etn. Eh, I'm out.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Well, I look at Tank Bisby.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
You know that EP is so far down the trough,
Like that's when you started throwing darts of guys and
ATM's missed some time all right early in his career,
had some injury issues last two miss his entire rookie season.
He's going higher right now in the ECR in terms
of rank over fancypros dot Com. He is going higher
than Breese Hall even which to me is crazy. He's
at ten in half PPR, which that's just way too
(08:14):
risky for me. I'm with you, I'm out right now
at that cost. If it gets better, I'm listening. But
I'm looking at taking shots on guys like Damian Pierce,
you know, at nineteen as a much better situation potentially,
as we continue to look at the running backs. Let's
talk about another one here, JK. Dobbins of the Baltimore
Ravens Now Dobbins. Last year, the stop and start was tough.
You know, people were very excited Ravens like th roun
(08:36):
the football. I know it's a different offensive coordinator. I
don't know how different of a philosophy it's going to be.
We're gonna find that out. So there's a little unknown,
which is risk. There's the risk of you know the
fact that he did stop and start last year coming
off the ACL injury. There is reward because he had
that four game stretch where he had three or four
games over ninety yards, two over one hundred and twenty.
(08:57):
Do you think that JK Dobbins at her current adp
early on, when we're looking at where he's going off
the board at the seventeenth running back, do you think
that's too risky or is that a good reward at
that number?
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Oh? No, Give me all the JK. Dobbins I could
possibly handle.
Speaker 2 (09:12):
I want all of it.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
Give it to me. Give it to me now. JK
Dobbins is at a great spot, Joe, because people are
drafting JK. Dobbins like they have in previous seasons. Like
it's the same offense, the same things are gonna happen.
He's gonna split carries with Gus Edwards and maybe just
As Hill and all these are the shlubs on this
depth chart. I don't see that happening. Man, It's not
(09:35):
gonna happen. You look at Todd Munkin over the last
two years as an offensive coordinator, he fed top ten
opportunity shares to yes, Nick Chubb was one of those
seventy three percent of the opportunities in Cleveland, but also
Peyton Barber is in that mix as well. Man he
got sixty eight percent of the opportunities and for the
Buccaneers that year, Todd Munkin is gonna give JK. Dobbins
(09:58):
more of this backfield. And you were talking about a
guy that when we have seen him healthy somewhat healthy
on the NFL field, he has been one of the
most elusive running backs in the NFL in its two seasons,
twentieth and eighth in yard s, touch of contact per attempt.
Now you're telling me he could sniff upwards of sixty
percent opportunity share in an offense that also with Monken
(10:21):
three of his last four years as an offensive coordinator
top twelve a neutral script pace. So even if they
don't pass more, Greg Roman and his antiquated ways are gone,
we're going to look at more play volume and he
could own more of this backfield and none of that
is being equated into his ADP Give me all well.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
Look and which competent receiver play for once? Yes, sir,
that also opens things up, you know, because that's the
whole thing. It's like they've become so predictable the last
couple of years. It's easy to defend the Ravens because
you gotta know what they're doing. Now, all of a sudden,
if Odell can play, if Jay Jones looks like he
is going say flowers, excuse me, looks like he's going
to be something, then all of a sudden, you've got
some real opportunity there where you can open up this
(11:02):
offense and make it easier for JK.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Dobbins. I'm gonna tell you this too.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
Maybe it's a hot take, I don't know, but I
can see Jamiir Gibbs, Damian Pierce. I could see Joe
Mixon as time goes on, all of those guys starting
to go ahead of him as we get deeper into
draft season.
Speaker 3 (11:17):
And AJK will hop him too.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
Yeah, JK is going to continue to slide down that
trough you watch, and that's when he really becomes a
good reward risk player. Now I'm going to go on
the reward side with you on Dobbins. All right, one
more RB I want to talk about because every year
it's the inevitable discussion of this is the end of
Dalvin Cook. And I feel like every year we talk
about this, and every year we get more and more concerned,
and to be honest, you know, in twenty nineteen he
(11:40):
was RB three in half BPR. In twenty twenty he
was RB two. Twenty twenty one obviously missed a couple
of games there, so just thirteen games played.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
He was RB fifteen, but RB eight last year. I'm
always trying to be ahead of the curve.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
I'm always worried about guys who've been in the league
five six years of this position, and that's where we're
at right now. When it comes to Dalvin Cook. Look
but he didn't trade him. It's still a very good offense.
Do you think Dalvin Cook at the discount you're getting
him again this year, is once again going to return
better than the investment.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
No, I'm out on Dalvin Cook. And I have been
a very big proponent of Dalvin Cook over the last
few years. I've loved his talent, loved his skill set.
But we're looking at you're talking about the age Cliff Joe,
and even if we want to sit here and run
the rumor mill here and talk about, okay, what if
he goes to South Beach, he goes to Miami, I
don't look at that as being a better thing for him,
if anything, his volume goes down. But let's talk about
(12:34):
the vikings just now, you know what, Let's just talk
about Dalvin Cook the player, in the sense that everything
is screaming to me that the age cliff is coming
or it's already here and I'm out man Like, over
his final seven games last year, he only had one
game where he logged over three point zero yards after
contact per attempt. He had his second lowest breakaway percentage
(12:57):
of his entire career and the low whist yards per
route run of his entire career.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
All of his.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
Screens that if he's not at the cliff, he's driving
even closer to it, and it's peering over the side
and saying, you know what, it might not be too
bad down there. And I don't want any part of
that for Dalvin Cook. Like you look at where he's
going in drafts right now, and I'm looking at FFPC
Fantasy pros ADP. Give me Aaron Jones in the same round,
(13:24):
Give me JK. Dobbins a round after. Hell, dude, give
me Damian Piercer cam Akers in the sixth round, two
rounds after Dalvin Cook. I'll go with both of those
guys over Dalvin Cook easily.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
I'm not easily on this one.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
To me, this is tougher because Aaron Jones doesn't well,
I'll tell you why. Look, you know me, I was
the guy was out on Zeke earlier. I was always
trying to I'm with you, I'm steering with you in
that car, I'm taking the wheel with you, and we're
trying to get back on the road. However, in this
grouping of running backs, Aaron Jones doesn't have Aaron Rodgers anymore.
And I don't know what this offense is going to
be interms scoring opportunity.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
So that's going to change the dynamic of Jones. JK.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Dobbins again, I'm with you. I like where things are going.
But Dalvin Cook's been there, done that many times. Pierce,
I also think, is on his way up. That's an
arrow going up, but hasn't done it yet. Jamiir gives
as a rookie Acres again. Maybe Sean McVay likes him today,
maybe not tomorrow. If I'm gonna be down here in
the dirty water with these guys, at least Dalvin Cook.
(14:26):
To me, you know that boat has less holes in it,
like I know I've seen that boat get to shore
more than one occasion, so that's not the greatest metaphor,
but hey, I'm doing the best I can now. If
you want some breakdowns of these players, we're talking about
just obviously twenty twenty three re draft leagues, but if
you want like the long term look of these guys,
Fits and Bogman are doing a terrific job of looking
at these players on the Dynasty podcast, which is on
(14:48):
the same feed here at Fantasy Pros on our YouTube channel.
You can go listen to the podcast wherever you get
your pods to, but the Dynasty Football Podcast, the long
term and short term value of these guys too, from
that perspective is fascinating. I know they're breaking those guys
down quite a bit. Go check it out. The wide receivers,
let's talk about an old man like you and me,
Keenan Allen. This is a wide receiver coming off an
(15:10):
injury plague season but was productive when he was there.
Mike Williams is never there, so as long as Keenan
Allen is there, I feel like this is a good
reward with a guy that annually feels underappreciated, undervalue do
you get that same sense where there's risk with Keenan
Allen because of the age, because of the injuries last year,
but the reward is so solid at the ADP that
(15:31):
he's currently going out because you're looking at it right
now and he's the eighteenth wide receiver in ECR and
Fantasy pros.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
I don't understand. Do people think that Keenan Allen's going
to retire mid season? Don't really get it.
Speaker 2 (15:45):
Might have retired last season.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
I mean, seriously, dude, even if you want to talk
about this being recency biased. Okay, fine, let's go to
the most recent sample. Do we have out of Keenan
Allen from weeks twelve through eighteen, Top ten and PFF
receiving grade top twenty yards per route run, top fifteen
in target share and targets per route run. What are
we doing here? People? You're getting Keenan Allen as a
(16:08):
wide receiver two and in mini spots a low end
wide receiver two. That is insane value that I'm just
gonna tippel out the biggest spoon and I'm gonna look
like Zeke with a cereal bawl and just go to
town baby, like this is awesome because now you have
Kellen Moore is in town. This offense is gonna have
higher paced, higher passing rate. Justin Herbert's gonna get back
(16:29):
to throwing down the field. And yeah, we got concerns
about Mike Williams. I would sit here and say it's
a healthier bet to sit here and make the bet
that Keenan Allen can stay healthy and on the field
than ever for Mike Williams. Keenan Allen is a low
end wide receiver two. If he's healthy, he's a high
end wide receiver one. He is going to I mean,
he's gonna get close to touching one hundred perceptions this year.
(16:51):
I'm gonna be gobbling up all this value as long
as it presents itself. This is insane to me.
Speaker 2 (16:57):
I'm with you, I'm in I think it's a bounce
back year for her I actually bought him in Dynasty
real cheap actually just.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
A week ago, where I got him for a third
round twenty twenty four pick. And I'm a win now
team right now in that Dynasty league, so he could
be had out there. But in terms of the investment, again,
it's got so much upside and doesn't feel like a
lot of risk, you know. I mean, it's the same
spotted a couple other guys we're going to talk about
who are in the same range. Deebo Samuel is not
in this range, but the next two guys we're gonna
talk about are. But let's go up the board a
(17:25):
little bit to Deebo because that's a little bit higher.
He's above Keenan Allen against similar range. He is the
seventeenth wide receiver. Now, we all thought there would be
some regression based off of how amazing twenty twenty one
was where he's wide receiver three and half point PPR.
Last year he finished with wide receiver thirty two. Yes,
there were injuries, Yes he missed some time, but also
the quarterback play drop off certainly had a lot to
(17:46):
do with it. Also, and you know they did acquire
some guy named Christian McCaffrey. So, with that being said,
is this current cost of Deebo Samuel as we entered
these conversations too risky?
Speaker 3 (17:57):
This current cost makes no sense. Again, I feel like
people are blindfolding themselves and saying, oh, these things didn't happen.
This isn't didn't happen. These are all fictitious. You know,
Keenan Allen was not healthy. All these running backs have
no risk. Oh look at Debo.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
He's still the.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
Same guy that blew the top off, not last year
but the year before.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
He's not.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
He lost that role, like his a dot went back
into the tank. People, you're talking about a guy. Then
I'm not even talking about the CMC stuff because I
looked at the splits for CMC without CMC, his target
share was almost identical. His targets per reute run were
almost identical, Like both of them were twenty seven percent
with CMC without CMC, with a fully healthy DEBO. But
(18:40):
if you look at the high leverage stuff and it's
gone Joe. His deep targets went from almost won a
game to point four, So he's not getting deep shots
down the field. His red zone targets in eight games
with Christian McCaffrey, he only got four. So what are
we talking about here. We're talking about a run heavy
team and a wide receiver that's not getting deep looks
(19:02):
and he's not getting red zone looks. So he's an
empty PPR machine on a run heavy team and we're saying, yeah,
we want to take that jump before Keenan Allen before
some of these other wide receivers, before Calvin Ridley. No,
I'm not doing that. I'm staying far away from Deebo.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
There's no Keenan Allen's right next door and I want
to go over his house and have some coffee and
case like, that's that's where I'm going, Like, hell.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Let's party at Keenan Allen's house.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
Party. Keenan Allen's older and coming off an injury, but
Deebo also is a guy's been injury played throughout his career,
so we could also bring that to the equation if
we're gonna be fair and honest. But I think of
the same look back to back. Basically, give me Keenan
Allen because I think it's a more consistent weekly basis
of what I'm getting and I like that, and I
think he's got high floor some weeks too. It's not
that Deebo is not a guy on want, but at
(19:50):
that ADP, I think it's tricky. What about DJ Moore,
who's going right after Keenan Allen. It's funny because these
guys are right in this cluster together that we're talking
about here, and they all have fair amount of risk.
The risk with DJ Moore is it's a new scenario.
We've never seen him with Justin Fields, We've never seen
him in this offense. Maybe everything jeils right away, but
I think all of us have a lot of rugburn
last year from the Denver Bronco situation, all the different
(20:13):
chairs of all different players, so we know what can
go wrong, what can go right for DJ Moore, and
is it worth investing in at the current ADP.
Speaker 3 (20:22):
I'm so divided on DJ Moore, like I have so many,
so many feels because I love the player, I love
the talent. I will take shots on DJ Moore in
some drafts, more along the lines of the ones where
I maybe I pair him with Justin Fields in a vacuum, Joe,
I'm going to tell you that I'm out. And this
(20:43):
all comes down to I look at DJ Moore's like
his situation, and I feel like he is going to
have to thread the needle to pay off on this ADP.
Hell just immediate, man, Like, if you look at DJ Moore, yes,
over the last two years, twenty eight percent target chair
he's averaged. That's fantastic. But we can't just necessarily say
that that's gonna happen in Chicago for a team that
(21:06):
we saw they only threw the ball three hundred and
seventy seven times last year. Even if you want to
craft a narrative to where maybe they get into the
four hundreds four point fifty range and that's a decent
jump and passing rate, maybe it happens, but maybe it doesn't.
Even at four hundred and fifty passing attempts, you're talking
(21:27):
about if he garners, if he garners the same targets here,
he's in the range of like one hundred and twenty targets.
That's a lot of like what ifs to me, Joe,
and for me, I'll just rather go down the board
like guys that are going in a similar range to
where DJ Moore is going right now, Christian Watson, Okay,
I'd rather go with him around after Jered Jack's triculent.
(21:51):
Those guys are so close to me because I like
DJ morris pedigree a little like just a little bit
more like I know what I'm getting. I don't know
what Jordan Love is going to be here. I have
a lot of I still have some faith. Maybe it's
misguided in what justin Fields can become at the NFL level,
and I think.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
There's a certain cap of Jordan Love.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
But I hear you like Watson's that really intriguing guy
in that same range. There's no doubt about that. And
then see I'm in on more because outside of Watson,
maybe Drake London, who I'm sure you were gonna bring up.
I can only imagine I.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Was gonna be the next name.
Speaker 1 (22:19):
I've done enough shows with you to know when the
Drake London situation is coming. Tyler Lockett's another guy. Jerry
Judy's another guy. Like there's some numbers there, but I'll
tell you what I think. As we have closer draft season,
DJ Moore is going to go behind those guys. And
when he does, if he becomes my wide receiver three,
that's when I'm in on DJ Moore. Where do you
stay with DeAndre Hopkins, Who's the next guy on the
(22:40):
list here as we kind of go down because he
is at he is at wide receiver twenty right now,
DJ Moore is at nineteen and a half point PPR.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
We all know.
Speaker 1 (22:48):
Hopkins' borderline Hall of Fame career. He's been incredible.
Speaker 2 (22:52):
I don't know how much Kyler Murray's gonna play this year.
Speaker 1 (22:54):
I really don't. Like I'm not investing as though he's
going to play at all. That's my take on the situation,
because they're going to be bad, and once you're bad,
you want that higher pick, so you might as well
be healthy. What do you think about Hopkins? Do you
think he gets traded? Is he worth the situation right
now of where his draft capital is in terms of
risk reward?
Speaker 3 (23:11):
If you're taking shots on Hopkins, it's only with the hope.
For me, it's only with the hope that he gets
traded in the current situation that he's in. Again, I'm
with you, Joe, like, I don't know how much we
see Kyler this year, and yeah, like you could sit
here and craft a narrative. Okay. Three starts with McCoy.
He was a wide receiver twelve, wide receiver twelve and
oh wait wait a minute wide receiver thirty as well,
(23:32):
So small sample size, but like he drops back into
he is going to be in that scenario, a volume
dependent wide receiver two, which is where he's going. And
I have a problem crafting you a good narrative, like
did Hopkins look like he fell off a map. As
far as from a talent standpoint, last year no wide
(23:53):
receiver nine at Fantasy points per game, he was seventeenth
in yards per route run. But I worry about this
offensive situation, like this team.
Speaker 1 (24:00):
Could be bad, like legitimately, or they could be worse
than an NFL bad.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
It's a bad roster.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
We all know that. And I'll tell you this.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
I think when you look at Hopkins, I feel like
this is another guy too. He's there now because of
the name brand recognition. But then as we start hyping
the next guy and this guy and the Drake Lunnon,
this guy, he's gonna slide down right now.
Speaker 2 (24:19):
It's too high for the risk yep.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
I think when we get to twenty four or twenty
five with Hopkins, then I'm all the years I'm listening.
Then let's talk about quarterback here. I want to throw
two guys at you, Anthony Richardson, who hasn't played it
down in the NFL and Deshaun Watson, who has had
several top five quarterback finishes in his fantasy career. So
one guy's done it, but looked like a far removed
version of himself last year coming off the suspension hadn't
(24:43):
played football for a very long time, and it showed
he was very slow out of the gate with the football.
He was a slowest in the NFL getting rid of
the football and making the decisions. That's a problem. It
didn't look better as it went. That's what I was
hoping for. And then again Anthony Richardson, which is all
glitz and glamour and all of the upside they could
we handled, but none of you know the actual credibility
that we can bank off. So in a single quarterback league,
(25:07):
would you take a risk on Deshaun Watson knowing that
he's done it before, or would you go draft of
Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers and then draft of Richardson
for the upside and go that route instead.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
Give me all the Anthony Richardson I can handle this year, man.
I want it all, all, all, all all, this This
is a this was the landing spot that we all wanted.
He's got Jonathan Taylor's got Michael Pittman Alec Pearce around him.
And the thing about Anthony Richardson is his floor.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
If he runs like.
Speaker 3 (25:34):
We think he's gonna run, Joe and I believe he
is going to he's a top twelve quarterback. I don't
think that we get that like Adam Watson. You're assuming
more risk and he's going higher right now in FFPC,
He's going two rounds ahead of Richardson. I'm not going
to pay the cost for Watson at that when I
can get Anthony Richardson two rounds later. And I look
(25:58):
at the floor is higher and the ceiling is comparable.
Like with Anthony Richardson, if he runs even and I'm
not even talking about him throwing, well, I think that
he has got the same type of bet as a
floor play. But the upside for Richardson is even higher. Man,
I want the washing numbers at you, and throw some
numbers at you. Last year, Justin Fields finishes QB five.
(26:22):
He threw for just twenty two hundred yards, but he
rushed for one thousand.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
That enough.
Speaker 3 (26:26):
That's that's beautiful to me.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
That's beautiful.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
It might be ugly sometimes, but it's gonna be pretty
from a point too, especially if he gets rushing touch.
Speaker 3 (26:33):
It's week winning. On certain weeks he will win you
a week. And I can't say that about Deshaun Watson
right now, man, And I know I've brought this stat
up a few different shows, but for anybody tuning into this,
I'll bring it up one more time. Man, Anthony Richardson.
I look back over the last nine years, and we
had twenty one quarterbacks in this sample that finished with
(26:53):
less than four thousand passing yards but over five hundred
rushing yards. Eighty five percent of those guys, we're top
twelve quarterbacks eighty five thirty eight percent of them thirty
eight we're top five quarterbacks and fantasy points per game.
If you're telling me that's the bet I'm making with
any of Richardson, I'm loving it, love.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
It all day. Let's talk tight end.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Now.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
Last year we did a lot of shows together, probably
about seven hundred and forty two of them. In seven
hundred and forty of them, I told you that Marcus
Mariota is going to ruin Kyle.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Pitt and he did, he did so.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
But we move on. Now it's Desmond Ridder. I don't know,
you know how much better we're gonna all of a
sudden think now, But the difference is this year, the
cost isn't the same, so we're Kyle Pitts was the
tight end three or four, right, now he's tight end six,
he's just sitting in the middle. Now we've seen what
the reward is, but the question is he worth the
risk in twenty twenty three with this offense with Bijon
(27:51):
there now, but a different quarterback with Ridder.
Speaker 2 (27:53):
I know he didn't show you too much, but what
do you think of Kyle Pitts.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Is that a business you're going to be in in
twenty twenty three?
Speaker 3 (28:00):
This is just a straight bet on talent and looking
at Kyle Pitts, I'll bet on that talent ten times
out of ten looking at where he's going. Yeah, it's
a tough pill to swallow when you look at other ADPs,
like when I can get Darren Waller in a lot
of sense, like around maybe two rounds after Kyle Pitts.
Sure give me all that sauce. But as far as
(28:22):
Kyle Pits in a vacuum, Yeah, man, I'm still buying
into it. Because everybody can talk about how much of
a disappointment Kyle Pits was last year, but the numbers
that I care about that still scream. He has elite
upside at the position is the fact that he dominates
versus man coverage in every single one of these elite
tight ends in fantasy. You see this consistently out of
these guys, and we saw it from Kyle Pitts last year.
(28:45):
He was thirteenth in yards per run against man coverage,
eighth and PFF receiving grade against man coverage. If you're
telling me that he could beat man coverage, you could
play on the outside. Look, the quarterback situation still could change.
I'm not going to rule out that maybe they trade
for Ryan tanneer Hill at some point, or Desmond Mitter,
which I've been calling him because I'm not a fan
of at all.
Speaker 2 (29:05):
Clever. That's when the kids like to say mid I wish.
Speaker 3 (29:08):
I consider and say that I came up with that name.
I did not, but I was sure as hell use
it when I can. I'm still gonna buy into Kyle Pitts, man,
it's a bet on top.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
I'll say this.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
I'll buy at six because after six you got Darren
Waller who's never on the field, Evan Ingram who had
a nice season last year. So Ingram was good, but
then he's got to repeat it. And now Calvin Ridley's
back against Muddy and Joku Schultz with the Houston Texans
like it's it's rough in the streets.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
Okay, Like, So that to me is exactly what was like.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
You take the shot on Kyle Pits because if he
doesn't perform well, then you're just hitting the waiver wire
and you're looking because all those other guys are probably
gonna be interchangeable on the waiver wire anyway, so at
least take the shot on him.
Speaker 2 (29:46):
So to me, that makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
Now, if you want to see how different people have
these players that we're talking about that are risk reward ranked,
go to Fantasy bros dot com and check out the
cheat sheets. You could see Dee bros Ranks versus Erickson's
versus Friedman's and you could see all the comparisons.
Speaker 2 (29:59):
Would a great tool there, Fantasypros dot Com.
Speaker 1 (30:02):
And of course we want you to win a million dollars,
so don't forget Fantasypros dot Com Slash Championship. That's what
you're gonna go out there, million dollar first prize. We're
giving away subs to well, not like food, but subscriptions
to our incredible premium products as well. And on top
of which, we're giving you a lot of opportunities to
to get in early to that contest. So if you
use the promo code Fantasy Pros, you get in twenty
(30:24):
five dollars off your entry, and if you sign up
by June first and complete your draft by the fifteenth,
you get the thirty five dollars early bird credit.
Speaker 2 (30:31):
Again.
Speaker 1 (30:31):
This FPCs Fantasy Pros Championship for a million dollar prize.
Speaker 2 (30:36):
It's gonna be awesome.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Play fantasy football, be a millionaire sounds good to me.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on for Debro.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks
for listening to the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Follow us on Twitter and Instagram at Fantasy Pros, and
subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash
Fantasy Pros.
Hosts And Creators
Andrew Erickson
Joe Pisapia
Derek Brown
Thor Nystrom
Ryan Wormeli
Pat Fitzmaurice
Matthew Freedman
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