Why Accurate Sales Forecasts Are Overrated with Bill Kantor

Bill Kantor is the co-founder of Funnelcast, a forecasting platform designed to help businesses understand, optimize, and act on their sales pipelines. With decades of experience in sales operations and revenue analytics, Bill is on a mission to shift how companies use forecasting — from chasing accuracy to driving meaningful change.

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💬 3 Key Quotes from Bill Kantor:

1. "The job of the forecast is to tell you what to change in order to make the outcome better."

2. "People think the job of the forecast is to tell you what you're going to close. But your sales are not like the weather. You can control the outcome."

3. "Don’t chase hyper-accuracy in forecasts — focus on what you can control to change the outcome."

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Bill Kantor joins the show to challenge the conventional view of forecasting. Rather than striving for accuracy, Bill advocates for forecasts as tools for change. He explains the math behind pipelines, common mistakes in sales forecasting, and how better definitions and insights can empower sales teams to improve outcomes — not just predict them.

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🔑 5 Key Takeaways

1. Forecasting Is a Catalyst for Change

• Forecasts should help you identify where to take action, not predict perfectly.

• Think of forecasting like coaching — it’s about improvement, not prediction.

• Use forecasting to find leverage in your pipeline, not just to report numbers.

2. You Can’t Predict Individual Deals — And That’s Okay

• The idea that you can call specific deals is flawed and statistically impossible.

• Treat your pipeline as a portfolio — not a list of “yes” or “no” bets.

• Focus on the distribution of outcomes, not just the “commit list.”

3. Pipeline Math is Simple but Powerful

• Three levers drive outcomes: number of deals, size of deals, and win rate.

• These factors are dynamic and function over time.

• Modeling those time-based variables correctly uncovers more accurate and actionable insights.

4. Sales Stages Must Be Clearly Defined

• Poor stage definitions lead to forecast noise and misalignment.

• Consistent definitions enable higher forecast fidelity.

• Clarify criteria for entering and exiting each stage to drive accountability and insight.

5. Tools Don’t Replace Thinking

• Too many teams buy tools before building skills.

• Forecasting tools like Funnelcast amplify insight but aren’t a magic fix.

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