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July 3, 2024 38 mins

In this episode of FI15, Joe is joined by Sebastien Page, Chief Investment Officer at T Rowe Price and Alexandra Dimitrijevic, Global Head of Analytical Research & Development at S&P Global Ratings. Topics included both guests views on global mega trends, the future glide path of interest rates and inflation, Sebastien’s experience building a 40,000+ following on Linkedin and a new quick fire round.

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(00:00):
Hello and welcome.
My name is Joe Cass, senior director at S&P Global Ratings
and a host and the creator of the 515 podcast.
On this episode, we have Sebastian Page, head of Global
Monthly asset and chief investment officer at T Rowe Price,
and Alexandra Beach Revich, global head of analytical
research and development at S&P Global Ratings.
So just a quick reminder that the views of the external guests

(00:22):
are their views alone,
and they do not represent the views of S&P Global Ratings.
Alexandra.
I was wondering if we could kick off
with you by talking a bit about megatrends.
So what do we identify as megatrends and
Thank you.
Let's start by what we mean with, megatrends,

(00:45):
these, trends that we think have the potential
to transform our economies and our society
and,
also where we have maybe sometimes more open questions and answers.
So a degree of unpredictability on how they will instrument forward.
So they include, for instance, climate change,

(01:08):
geo geopolitical fragmentation,
an aging of population, energy transition, AI, all of the,
they, they have, in common that, a lot of them have,
a longer term time horizon, like amidst change, for instance.

(01:29):
but yet
some of them also are evolving at an exponential pace.
If you take the case of Gen I or could,
impact, pretty here and now with, for instance,
cyber, cyber crime or war or some of the,
the, the more extreme physical risk, climate risk events.

(01:54):
So S&P just, published, a few weeks ago,
a white paper called Path to Credit Materiality,
which looks, it's, provides a framework to,
explain how we assess the implications of these megatrends on credit

(02:14):
and the two key questions here are how they might impact on credit,
when they might, impact on their credit.
So there are five steps to this framework.
The first step is to assess the, the
the magnitude of, the impact of the megatrends on here.
It's a combination of the, the

(02:35):
the severity of the impact on the likelihood.
that's the first step.
The second step is, then to assess the, the channels of transmission
of the impact of this megatrend, to credit
so that through revenues, costs, CapEx, for instance,
and then we assess that, the, the magnitude of the impact

(02:59):
or it is significant or, and or channel of transmission,
is clear.
Then we that's where we use, scenario analysis.
We do we use plausible scenario to do
sensitivity analysis or stress test to help us assess, the,
the potential impact and an industry level or geography level.

(03:20):
so that's a first step is the analysis.
And the last step is really
look at the application at for this specific level.
And it can really very, you know, can be here run now
or it can be in five years, ten years or maybe never.
And, what's really important here is also to understand

(03:40):
how different entities manage or mitigates,
this megatrend that might happen in the future.
So the first one we're going to assess is,
on the climate summit transition and climate physical risk.
And maybe that would be a good topic to come back
on, fixed income in 15 months.
We've, we've published that, first Portland climate.

(04:04):
interested to hear how
terho price factors global megatrends into your own analysis
and portfolio construction.
To me.
When you think about megatrends.
It's all about looking forward, not backward.
And this has massive implications for asset allocators, for example,
and for portfolio construction.

(04:26):
Joe, let me tell you a story that is actually in my book,
but it speaks to looking forward and how important it is
for portfolio construction.
So if you think of megatrends, we just had
ten years of zero interest rates and now we don't.
So what does this mean for strategic asset allocation?

(04:48):
The story takes place a few years ago.
I'm attending a boring quantitative research conference.
Everybody's half asleep.
The presenter is Bern Scherrer.
He's a very well-respected academic and investor.
He's done both in his career
and he's presenting it portfolio construction model

(05:09):
that focuses on optimization.
Someone in the room raises their hand and goes,
we should not be using optimizers for portfolio construction
because of the guy.
Go critique Joe, have you ever heard the guy go critique our budget?
Garbage in, garbage out.
And if you're doing
strategic asset allocation and you understand megatrends,

(05:33):
then you know that the long term expected returns
on the different asset classes should change.
If, for example, now interest rates are higher.
But I'll always remember
what Bernd Scherrer answered
because he was clearly jetlagged and a bit cranky.
But it speaks to looking forward, not backward.
He looked at the person asking the question

(05:55):
and said, if you don't think
you can come up with reasonable
expectations about the future,
you should not be in the investment business.
So, Joe, that's what we do.
There are at least three ways to adjust to megatrends.
As asset allocators, we need to recognize

(06:15):
that they can create value traps.
Technology.
And Alexandra mentioned AI has created a value trap
where growth stocks have gotten more and more and more
expensive relative to value stocks.
Yet those that have bought value stocks have been caught
in a value trap.

(06:35):
Second, for stock pickers, it's really important
to be on the right side of change.
So being able to
use proprietary research
to understand what to pick, Alexandra's example
I is going to do in terms of disruption in the economy.

(06:56):
And if you look at our firm, we have over 300 stock analysts
and credit analysts.
And that's a lot of what they do.
What's different about our assocation process
is what I'm responsible for.
We actually take inputs from stock analysts in our process,
especially when it comes to understanding megatrends like AI.

(07:16):
And the third point about megatrends is it should influence
or drive your process.
As investors, we need to show openness to new ideas.
And Joe, what I'll say about this is for AI, we think it's real.
We think it is an important megatrend that's going to lead to increased

(07:38):
productivity, not only in technology companies.
Clearly, you can reduce your coding time by almost 30% right away.
So this is productivity for tech heavy companies,
but also for traditional company.
And just to
illustrate the power, did you know, Joe, that
I just came across this paper recently

(08:00):
that I can essentially read your mind
and then I'm talking about
scientific papers out of University of Texas,
out of the University in Japan, out of Sydney.
They take an MRI of the brain
activity as you read something,
and the large language model

(08:22):
maps your brain activity to whatever you're reading.
Okay, that's kind of cool.
Then it take away to the text.
The AI then doesn't know what you're reading,
just looks at your brain activity and can roughly
infer what you're thinking.
Now it's a cute example.
All I want to say is when you think about megatrends,

(08:43):
what AI is going to do, who knows?
It's the power of openness and imagination, and then positioning
portfolios on the right side to change.
briefly, but I'd be interested to know your, say, 3
to 5 year view of things like interest rates, inflation,

(09:03):
and maybe even the potential future glide path of major central banks
such as the fed,
Joe, I think inflation could be closer
to 3% than 2% for the next 3 to 5 years
due to supply issues, the globalization,

(09:24):
energy transition,
demographics with an aging population, less labor supply.
All these forces could push inflation above the fed.
The ECB in the Bank of England's targets.
Add to that.
Pedal to the metal fiscal spending.
Who knows when that stops.
But that's the environment we're in.

(09:46):
Add to that geopolitical risk
which can create spikes in oil prices
which are highly inflationary.
Add to that money printing, right?
Yeah I could use the wonky term excess liquidity.
I've been calling it the blob of money.
You ever see the movie The Blob?
It's like an old movie where this creature just eats everything.

(10:11):
Well, the blob of money, the 7 trillion in money
market funds the excess 3 trillion that's been added into
checking accounts.
This is not distributed equally.
And the lower wage earners are absolutely out of liquidity.
But in aggregate, the blob of money is alive.
And it has been eating all the negative headlines.

(10:34):
So I think that that excess liquidity means people want to buy
goods, want to buy services, want to buy financial assets.
So it'll be hard to get to that sort of last mile
and bring inflation to 2%.
Whether it's the ECB, the Bank of England or the fed.

(10:55):
the top
two or top three risks that we're monitoring.
Monitoring?
Which could impact
I get to this tourist,
and,
And I think,
you know, looking back to it, the best thing, actually, we're seeing.
But just maybe,
I want to take the opportunity to, speak about the way,

(11:16):
we we monitor this risk at as a global rating.
So we have, an analytical,
governance framework called the credit Conditions Committee.
And every quarter we meet with our senior expert across,
different sectors and economists.
And on the on the one hand, we define the house base case,

(11:37):
which is what, the our 700, 1700
rating energy is used for and to underpin their forecasts.
But we also monitor the key risks that could derail,
this base case are not so key part of the analysis.
and, you know, the first one, as,
Sebastian was alluding to is, interest rates

(11:58):
and the second top risk, geopolitical risk.
And and if we come back to interest rates, here,
the the risk, that could you raise the boat scale?
It could be that interest rates they, of higher
for an extended periods.

(12:18):
and that would be on the back of,
stubbornly high inflation with the US economy still running hot.
and that could delay or drive some of,
the central banks, base to, cut interest rate.
At this stage, we, our economist, forecast
for the first fed cut rates in December.

(12:40):
and then, a bit more acceleration in 25
to 4% to at 4% at the end of 25 in Europe.
after this first cuts,
our economists expect another two cuts for this year.
and on, on, on the back of inflation

(13:00):
coming down, I have to say I share some of Sebastian views that,
inflation, core inflation, most is structurally higher
than in the past decade.
And so maybe us rates, come down from, the high where they are now.
they might not come down to zero,
or we might have ended this period of,

(13:22):
you know,
this decade of free money that, as Sebastian was describing.
So one of the impact, obviously, if you have interest
rates staying higher for longer than in our base case,
this could have a negative impact on the lower rated credit,
particularly those rates.
It'd be minus, on below, which tend to be highly levered.

(13:42):
And we'd have to refinance in a higher rate environments.
And as well for emerging markets,
as are the direct impact of popular rates or,
indirect in but through unfavorable exchange rates, potentially
for those Em that have a lot of non-domestic debt in, U.S.
dollars.
So at this stage, we have we expect default rates

(14:05):
remain elevated through, 2024 at full, 4.5%
in, in the U.S or above, long term average in Europe as well.
And start trending down as we get into next year.
in the base case, the second key risk
that we are monitoring is other geopolitical risk.

(14:28):
And since, Russia's invasion of Ukraine,
geopolitical risk clearly come back
on the front stage for any credit analyst.
and we've really ended an era of,
the Washington Consensus and Euro relative geopolitical stability,

(14:49):
globalization focused on, on,
low cost, supply chain.
And, we've entered a new era now of, geopolitical,
fragmentation, a lot more prone to event risk, instability.
It's hard to see, you know, the end to this period of of fragmentation.

(15:11):
They are multiple risk at the moment.
So, you have obviously, the, the war between,
Russia and Ukraine on European, territory,
you have this collision of the situation in the Middle East,
especially since Iran's attack, on, on Israel.
And and you have the ever, tension between the US and China

(15:34):
and all of these, risks could, escalate
as a voluntary or involuntary and, they and create
some have some impact on global trade on businesses, commodity prices.
That's the Sebastian was, was seeing or potential volatility
in, in, in the market added to the US in 24.

(15:57):
We have over 70 elections in 40 countries, including big one.
We just had, Mexico in the,
here in Europe, we have the UK and now France.
And then that wasn't, planned then, the US coming.
And all of this
creates an environment where there is also more focus on,

(16:17):
a more protectionist attitude problem,
focus on, security in the current environment.
so a lot of potential event risks
stemming from this geopolitical environment, but also, potential
more structural implications on, on global trade, fiscal costs.
Sebastian mentioned, you know, security expenditures.

(16:40):
So these are the two key risks that we're monitoring,
which is running our Q3 finish committee.
And we'll be releasing, our audited conclusions, later this month.
wanted to talk a bit about your book.
It's called Beyond Diversification. What?
What every investor needs to know about asset allocation.

(17:03):
Interested to know why did you decide to write a book originally?
What are some of the key takeaways?
And lastly,
thanks for asking.
Two reasons why I wrote the book.
One is obvious, the other one isn't.

(17:24):
The obvious reason is I wanted to share my knowledge
that I had accumulated on asset allocation.
That's why we all write books.
The second that's less obvious, but that I think
anybody who writes will agree with Alexandra.

(17:44):
I don't know if you write a lot of articles and
so on, but when you write, you learn.
So it was actually for me to consolidate my knowledge and learn
really more deeply
what I do, in asset allocation.
So to share and to learn myself, writing is the best way to learn.

(18:06):
I see Alexandra smiling.
She looks like she's agreeing.
Let me give you an example of what I mean by beyond diversification.
We'll talk about the stock bond correlation
and how it completely broke down in 22.
Stocks went down and bonds went down.
Massive massive bear market and bonds

(18:26):
like the worst bear market in bonds in history.
So people started asking about this stock bond correlation.
I have a chapter in there about it.
It's very difficult to forecast or understand
the stock bond correlation if you go back
80 years is and you look at the 12 months

(18:49):
stock bond correlation actually flipped sign
29 times from positive to negative, negative to positive.
It's been as low as -80%
and as high as plus 80%.
So when you're looking at the average
and you diversify your portfolio according

(19:10):
to the average correlation between stocks and bond
job with the analogy I like to use is like saying
I have my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven,
and I can still statistically claim
that I'm very comfortable in that my average body temperature is fine.
Well, that's the premise behind Beyond Diversification.

(19:31):
There are three sections in the book Forecasting Returns,
Forecasting Risk, and Constructing Portfolios.
Now on how to write a book or why to write a book.
I have a day job. It's pretty stressful. Day job.
I oversee all of our global multi-asset business.
I'm chief investment officer.

(19:54):
Look,
the best way is a little bit at a time consistently.
It's the power of habits to me.
It's Saturday mornings.
I sit down and I would write
and we were talking offline, Joe, about, you know, time of day effects.
Most of us are much more productive in the morning
if you do that,

(20:14):
like, I don't know, 2 or 3 hours a week, one morning,
but you keep doing it every week, little by little.
Hey, within a year or two years you have a book.
So it's actually not that hard.
If you just unleash the power of habit and make it a discipline,
give you a small reward,
you know, fill your spreadsheet with how many words you did this week.

(20:35):
It's just that simple.
it's seems daunting when you look
at how comprehensive a body of research you want to put together,
but just a little bit of time.
You know what, Joe?
I'm going to get philosophical.
This also applies to a bunch of stuff in life.
There's this great book titled Atomic Habits
about how whatever your small habits are,

(20:59):
they add up to big changes in your life and big accomplishments.
So obviously leave it at that.
Yes.
And especially in kind of different type of question for you now.
You've got now, I think over 40,000 followers on your LinkedIn profile.

(21:19):
How do you view kind of the role of social media as a
Yeah.
Look it.
I don't know if 40,000 is impressive or not, I,
I see people with a lot more,
so I don't know, maybe our listeners, viewers will be impressed
by 40,000. Look, I'm.

(21:39):
I'd never been on Facebook or Instagram or.
I'm actually just generally skeptical of social media.
I see people I love around me get completely addicted.
But you know what?
For me, LinkedIn is kind of a special place
there where people are looking for jobs.
It's not anonymous, which means it's much more civilized.

(22:05):
And for our
firm, this digital marketing is actually really important.
This is how you do marketing. Now.
This is why you have a podcast show like Digital Marketing
is important to build our firm's brand.
You know, you're based in India.
We're kind of like over there, the largest asset manager

(22:25):
you've never heard of because we're just so humble as a as a brand.
But as a management it is competitive.
LinkedIn's a global platform.
So our clients want to know what we're thinking and what we're doing.
So it's an important part of building the firm's brand.
And Joe, if you've noticed, I'm also writing about

(22:46):
psychology and leadership and self-improvement.
which is,
I think, again, really
a good match for the LinkedIn environment.
So will I get on or Twitter or start doing YouTube?
I don't know, probably not, personally,

(23:08):
but this is this is the right platform for me personally.
How do you
view the role of social media and projecting to the market our
I know the
I have a lot with, in common with Sebastian here.

(23:29):
I also use LinkedIn.
We do as an organization, use, LinkedIn.
you will see me on the other, social media,
but I degrees at, LinkedIn.
It's been really, LinkedIn in particular
had a pivotal impact on the distribution of,

(23:50):
the research used to be traditionally to media release
and then to the website.
But then, you know,
you expect for people to come on to your website to find the research.
Well, with with LinkedIn, you have, a much, much broader reach,
also from a population that is,

(24:11):
well beyond the more traditional institutional investor, population.
you have a more immediate, way to share,
some, some information, some research
and what's also really, useful is the engagements.
So you have people's reaction on, on the topic,

(24:31):
the comments, the, the feedback loop, which also helps understand
what, investors sentiment or trends in the markets.
now, we do use, LinkedIn a lot for the leadership.
the ideas, the topical research.
but we do not use it for ratings distribution or rating news.

(24:55):
For for that, we use our, traditional, channel
on what's really important, in, you know, our approach
of social media in general is to keep the same regular,
quality integrity in the information
that we put out on social media in day and age of,

(25:17):
you know,
fake news is really important
for the brand to, to have this same, integrity approach.
We have a formidable team of,
you know, within the research and marketing that really helps
build these engagements on, on LinkedIn.
And I'm going to just, maybe if you're interested

(25:38):
to follow what we publish.
sure.
With this free, newsletter that you can follow on LinkedIn.
One is, from my profile is called Creative Tweet.
used to be an old SNP publication, an old time, a book.
And every week we pick, a topic that is relevant for the market.
We interview our in-house experts and share, you know, three minutes.

(26:00):
piece, you know, the SNP view on on this topic.
We also have a newsletter from, my colleague Ross Young,
who's the head of private market analytics, which is focused in trends
in the private market and our esteemed global chief economist group.
And that also has a weekly newsletter on linked, you know, like

(26:21):
and I think these are really great way for the market
more generally to follow what's happening at S&P.
Perfect. Thanks Alexandra
So I've got something new.
Let's see how well it works.
So I decided to put together
kind of a short quickfire round for both of you, and it's kind of.
I'll do kind of.
I'll start with maybe Sebastian

(26:42):
and I go to Alexandra, and it's basically
kind of the first thing that comes into your head.
and it's kind of based around favorites.
So, Sebastian, I'll start with you.
So what's your favorite dessert?
This is the most unexpected question I've ever gotten on the podcast.
key lime pie.

(27:05):
fall.
Because it's the best running weather on the East coast
in the US.
Okay, so I don't need a lot of meat,
but as a splurge, as a treat, I love going to a house.

(27:26):
Oh, my Garmin watch.
It rules my life. Run it.
I'm. Yeah.
Garmin.
Oh, we were just talking about that.
Definitely the morning. Just more productive.
Especially with coffee.
It's get more done.

(27:50):
Okay, so the answer is
I have absolutely no
That.
Shiba.
Misu.

(28:10):
At summer
I know I need warmth and sun.
While I'm just back from Sao Paulo.
And I have to say, Brazilian fried was to fantastic, fantastic food.
There.
It's my watch as well, you know.
Keep me on track with my activity.

(28:33):
more easily.
But after the hard work during the day, when.
When you can relax and spend time with the family.
I.
It has to be France.
Must be.
This may.

(29:03):
I thought a lot about this, and I've been writing on leadership.
I'll give you three where I go against conventional wisdom.
So conventional wisdom would be that leaders need to be great
talkers, great communicators.
They should not give up in
the face of setbacks and show resilience.

(29:25):
And they should be decisive and take action.
So that's conventional.
I don't think anybody will disagree with that.
I will disagree with each of them.
I will say that in my experience,
the number one leadership skill
I've had to develop over the years is not talking.

(29:45):
It's listening.
I would say that this idea of never
giving up leaders are horrible at quitting.
We get enamored with projects
and then when things don't work, we keep pouring resources into them.
There's a great book by Annie Duke titled quit that shows that actually

(30:06):
one of the most important leadership skills is not
never giving up is actually knowing when to quit.
And the last one on this idea that as a leader,
you need to take action.
You need to be decisive.
You know, what I've learned is, if you have time to make a decision,
there's no reason to rush the decision.
You should take advantage of the optionality that you have,

(30:29):
which as hyperactive leaders, we tend to forget.
So there you go, Joe.
Everyone thinks leaders need to be great talkers.
Never give up. Take action. Now.
They need to listen, know when to quit and exercise strategic patience.
Alexandra.
When living through a rapidly changing work

(30:52):
environment with, you know, hybrid working generally
and the rise of video calls and conversations like these.
How are you adapting to these changes?
And what kind of advice would you have for others to ensure
that they are
First, I want to say that Sebastian might be a great listener.
You know, they would stick to Barcelona in the story together.

(31:14):
So,
you know, we started
the discussion on megatrends, and,
Sebastian was talking a lot about AI as well, and,
so on that I'd like to, really come back on this.
So, yes, I mean, the pandemic has definitely accelerated

(31:35):
the digitalization of the economy.
now we have everything online when it works,
you know, video calls and but that's webinars, payments online.
So, so hybrid working.
So that's been there's been a first phase of transformation of,
the way people work of the economy, which can have long

(31:56):
lasting implications on, on certain sectors of the economy.
But right now, what I'm really excited about
is this new GI, revolution.
And I think here I was, we were discussing the the pace of change.
We are on an exponential pace of change since the release of of

(32:18):
GPT three with something new, almost, every week.
And this is going to have some, transformation and impact,
not only in technologies of, as Sebastian was saying,
but really on the on the entire economy and on our society.
You look at, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft,
they come together for 10% of the global market cap.

(32:41):
I mean, this is this is massive.
and I think we just said at the beginning on trying to understand
how this is going to impact us on on an everyday life.
I just read, a really interesting book last week.
It's called Core Intelligence by, it's an Molly from,
the Wharton School of Management and still learning a lot on AI.

(33:06):
So I found that the really fascinating, to understand
how China is very different from a software, which does
what it's been programed to do.
it's, it's really more this general purpose technology.
There's no manual to use it.
You really have to experience it.
And it really interacts in many way more us as a person.

(33:30):
It does seem that we didn't think machine could.
You liked being creative, analytical, having, conversation
and and obviously, they, they don't have any knowledge.
Right.
What it does is just predicting the next words,
in the sentence without knowing if it's right or wrong.

(33:51):
So we know that they are on this nation, that I can lie and,
but at the same time, it has a huge potential to documents.
I will get the Chinese, hats as as human beings.
what what I really loved in, the book,
Molech is, is speaking about, how we would,

(34:12):
evolve as centaurs and cyborg.
So the center essentially is when you have a clearer
partition of task between the human and the machine.
And to a certain degree, that's what we are really like.
If I want to go to a meeting at the other end of the city,
I'm going to take my app and, you know, check

(34:32):
what's the quickest way to get there.
And I rely a delegate that that's to the machine.
And then. And then who?
I go, the cyborg here is, is a different concept.
We, It's not a delegation.
It's a constant, iteration and a process of co-creation
and co-development between the machine and the human.

(34:53):
which is maybe.
Where where are we heading now?
And what's, really important.
And that's one of the key advice
from the book, is what invite the idea to a table,
but be the human at the table,
because it's going to be increasingly important to be able to control,
what these, journey machines are.
All right.
You are doing understand the limitation, understand the risk,

(35:17):
making sure that, this I remains in line
with, our human, values, ethical standards,
and, our social norms.
so it's this going to be, a lot of change
here is going to transform, high value, jobs.

(35:38):
It's going to transform sectors of the economy and how, you know,
we interact as individuals.
It's very exciting. It's very scary.
at the same time.
And, I'm, I'm very,
excited that
S&P had launched our own, LLM,
within leveraging our appropriate to retail,

(36:02):
you know, stuff environment with the protection of the IP
confidential information
but giving us the opportunity, to start experimenting
and using a lens in, in a, in our job and also just want to,
I mentioned that we have some really interesting
research on our website
on the impact of, AI on, different industries.

(36:24):
So if you look at, if you type the S&P AI insights,
you'll find some really interesting report there.
So.
I know we're kind of squeezed for time.
If we could just get one last question, and, over the course
of your career, what's kind of the best piece

(36:45):
In the early years of my career,
I was a bit anxious about the progress I was making.
I wasn't getting the promotion fast enough.
I wasn't getting the recognition.
And I went to my mentors.
Name is Mark Richman.
I worked with him for the first ten years of my career,
and I was complaining, Joe.

(37:07):
And he was tired of hearing me complain.
So he looked at me in the eye and he said, Sebastian,
do you know the secret to happiness in life?
I was at the edge of my seat
and he looked at me
and he said, lower your expectations.
Which, by the way, you can take as a cynical comment

(37:31):
or a very powerful philosophical comment.
You know, your happiness, your satisfaction
is what really happens.
The reality minus your expectations.
And this is not about not being ambitious.
It's about setting goals that are stretched enough that you can achieve

(37:53):
and then thinking long term, ignoring the noise along the way,
and just managing
your own expectations of things.
Thank you very much, Sebastian. Alexandra, for your time.
Their resume was absolutely fantastic.
For everyone watching and listening.
See you next time on fixed income in 15.
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