Tariffs, Interest Rates, and What's Next: Economic Update with Mark Vitner

In this episode of Full Disclosure, hosts Tyler Traudt and Nina Enholm sit down with Mark Vitner, Chief Economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital, for an in-depth economic update. Mark unpacks key trends shaping the U.S. economy, analyzing the impact of tariffs, Federal Reserve policy, and shifting supply chains on growth and inflation.

With years of experience forecasting economic conditions, Mark provides valuable insights into the current slowdown, explaining how uncertainty in trade policy and capital investment decisions is influencing business strategy. He breaks down the real effects of tariffs on consumer prices and how the Federal Reserve is managing inflation while avoiding recession.

During the episode, you’ll gain a deeper understanding of how economic conditions are evolving and what to watch for in the coming months, from potential rate cuts to shifts in housing and manufacturing. If you're looking for an analysis of where the economy is headed, this is an episode you won’t want to miss.

Featured Guest: 

Mark Vitner is the Chief Economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital, where he provides strategic economic insights and forecasting for clients across industries. With over 30 years of experience in economic analysis, Mark specializes in assessing U.S. and regional economic conditions, financial markets, and geopolitics, with a focus on their impact on consumers, local economies, housing, and commercial real estate.

Before founding Piedmont Crescent Capital, Mark spent nearly three decades at Wells Fargo as a Managing Director and Senior Economist, where he led macroeconomic research and regularly briefed corporate leaders, investors, and policymakers. His expertise also extends to roles at Wachovia, First Union National Bank, and Barnett Bank, where he developed strategic economic outlooks and provided critical analysis for financial institutions.

Mark is a recognized thought leader in economic forecasting and has been a frequent speaker at industry conferences, corporate events, and policy discussions. He has also contributed to numerous publications on inflation, monetary policy, and economic development. 

Top Takeaways from Episode 03:

1. Tariffs & Trade Policy Impact – Tariffs can distort supply chains and increase costs, but their inflationary impact is often overstated. The long-term effects depend on whether they’re used for revenue generation, trade leverage, or reshoring efforts.

2. The Federal Reserve’s Balancing Act – The Fed faces the difficult task of cutting rates to sustain growth while avoiding a resurgence of inflation. Mark predicts three rate cuts in 2025 but sees potential rate hikes resuming in 2026.

3. Federal Debt & Fiscal Concerns – Interest payments on national debt have surpassed defense spending, raising long-term concerns. Future policy shifts may focus on entitlement reform, tax policy adjustments, and government efficiency to curb deficits.