LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
Audio narrations of LessWrong posts. Includes all curated posts and all posts with 125+ karma. If you'd like more, subscribe to the “Lesswrong (30+ karma)” feed.
Episodes
in 2024 my donations funded $51M worth of endpoint grants (plus $2.0M in admin overhead and philanthropic software development). this comfortably exceeded my 2024 commitment of $42M (20k times $2100.00 — the minimum price of ETH in 2024).
this also concludes my 5-year donation pledge,...
You might think that the main thing that makes people really effective at research or engineering is technical ability, and among the general population that's true. Among people hired at Anthropic, though, we’ve restricted the range by screening for extremely high-percentile technical ability, so the remaining diffe...
I think this is a very serious risk – comparable in importance to AI takeover but much more neglected.
In fact, AI-enabled coups and AI takeover have pretty similar threat models. To see this, here's a very basic threat model for AI takeover:
I’ve had this sitting in my drafts for the last year. I wish I’d been able to release it sooner, but on the bright side, it’ll make a lot more sense to people who have already read AI 2027.
- There's a good chance that AGI will be trained before this decade is out.
- By AGI I mean “An AI system at least as good as the best ...
I am neither an American citizen nor a Chinese citizen.
Wh...
Introduction
Writing this post puts me in a weird epistemic position. I simultaneously believe that:- The reasoning failures that I'll discuss are strong evidence that current LLM- or, more generally, transformer-based approaches won't get us AGI
- As soon as major AI labs read about the specific reasoning failures described here, they might fix them
- But future versions...
Lewis Smith*, Sen Rajamanoharan*, Arthur Conmy, Callum McDougall, Janos Kramar, Tom Lieberum, Rohin Shah, Neel Nanda
* = equal contribution
The following piece is a list of snippets about research from the GDM mechanistic inter...
One day, I had the rea...
Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 burying the lede, so I'm going to try not to do that. The authors predict a strong chance that all humans will be (effectively) dead in 6 years, and this agrees with my best guess about the future. ...
- Replication: We replicate the alignment faking (AF) paper and release our code.
- Classifier Improvements: We significantly improve the precision and recall of the AF classifier. We release a dataset of ~100 human-labelled examples of AF for which our classifier achieves an AUROC of 0.9 compared to 0.6 from the original classif...
<...
Well, it's finally time. I'm back, and this time I have a team with me: the AI Futures Project. We've written a concrete scenario of what we think the future of AI will look like. We are highly uncertain, of co...
Quite a few ideas in AI safety implicitly use assumptions about individuality that ultimately derive from human exper...
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