If scaling of reasoning training doesn't bear out actual creation of new capabilities that are sufficiently general, and pretraining at ~2030 levels of compute together with the low hanging fruit of scaffolding doesn't bring AI to crucial capability thresholds, then it might take a while. Possibly decades, since training compute will be growing 3x-4x slower after 2027-2029 than it does now, and the ~6 years of scaling since the ChatGPT moment stretch to 20-25 subsequent years, not even having access to any [...]
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Outline:
(01:14) Training Compute Slowdown
(04:43) Bounded Potential of Thinking Training
(07:43) Data Inefficiency of MoE
The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
May 1st, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XiMRyQcEyKCryST8T/slowdown-after-2028-compute-rlvr-uncertainty-moe-data-wall
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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