July 11, 2025 • 8 mins
✈️ Episode Overview
Have you ever searched for a flight, left the tab open, and then gasped when the price jumped just a few hours later? In this Flashcards Friday episode of Math! Science! History!, Gabrielle Birchak explores the mystery behind fluctuating airline prices—and reveals that it’s not magic, but a powerful blend of mathematics, algorithms, behavioral psychology, and dynamic pricing strategies.
From fare buckets and revenue management to the cookies on your browser, Gabrielle breaks down how airlines control pricing and what you can do to outsmart the system and save money.
🎓 3 Things You'll Learn in This Episode
- How airline pricing algorithms use math and historical data to determine real-time ticket prices.
- Why flight prices often increase after multiple searches and how your browser behavior influences fares.
- Proven strategies and tools for booking smarter and avoiding price spikes.
🔗 Resources Mentioned
Google Flights – Great for tracking price history and alerts
Hopper – App that predicts the best times to buy flights
Skyscanner – Fare comparison across airlines and booking sites
ITA Matrix Airfare Search – Advanced search tool used by travel agents
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
It's FlashCards Fridays here at Math! Science! History! I'm your host, Gabrielle Birchak,
and today we're going to be looking into a problem that many of us have experienced.
Why do airline prices seem to jump around, sometimes within minutes after we search for a
flight? Stay tuned, you'll learn more after a word from our advertisers. So, you're looking for an
(00:27):
airline ticket, and you check once, it's $278. You think, hmm, maybe I'll wait a few hours,
talk to my loved one, you check again, it's $348. You wait a little bit longer,
and it's $292. What's going on here? Is your browser spying on you?
(00:47):
Of course it is. But are you being punished for hesitating? Of course you are.
Let's unpack this, pun intended, using the lenses of mathematics, behavioral science,
and a bit of airline economics. So, let's first look at the math behind airline pricing,
(01:08):
starting with the basics. Airlines use dynamic pricing models, which means the cost of a seat
on a flight isn't fixed. It changes constantly based on algorithms. These algorithms take into
account the following, time before departure, supply and demand, past sales patterns, competition,
(01:29):
weather and seasonality, and sometimes even the type of customer making the search. The math behind
this is rooted in something called revenue management, a field developed heavily in the
airline industry during the 1980s. It uses statistical modeling and probability to predict
how many seats should be sold at each price point to maximize profit. Here's how it works
(01:54):
in practice. Flights are divided into fare classes, like buckets. Each class represents a different
price level and often comes with its own rules, non-refundable, baggage limits, etc. If the lowest
fare bucket sells out, you move up to the next one. Even if there are 100 seats on a plane,
only a few may be allocated to the cheapest fare bucket. The airline's pricing algorithm estimates,
(02:20):
based on historical data, when to release more of these cheaper fares or pull them back.
Alright, now let's look at the behavioral psychology and perceived scarcity of the issue.
Why do you see the price go up after you search? Part of that is the airline reacting to demand
signals. Each time someone searches for a particular route, especially multiple people
(02:43):
around the same time, the algorithm reads that as increased interest. It might raise the price
in response. Some travel sites also track your searches through cookies and browser history.
While it's not confirmed that prices are raised deliberately on second searches, what's happening
(03:04):
is a bit more nuanced. Your cookies may place you in a customer segment that gets shown a slightly
different fare, perhaps assuming you are more willing to pay. There's also the idea of loss
aversion. When you see the price jump 50 bucks, your brain kicks into FOMO mode. That's fear of
(03:25):
missing out. You think, ah, I should have bought it earlier. And the next time you're quicker to
hit that book now button, the system has trained you to respond. This is an intentional psychological
mechanism. We see this in other industries too, like Uber's surge in pricing or Amazon's only
(03:45):
three left in stock pop-ups. Those are annoying. Okay, now let's look at the supply, demand,
and fare buckets. Imagine a flight from LAX to JFK has 150 seats. The airline might have 10 seats
at 200, 20 seats at 250, and 30 seats at 300, and so on, climbing all the way up to $900 for the last
(04:10):
minute traveler. If you and five other people are looking at that $250 fare at the same time,
and two people book it, you might get kicked up to the next fare tier. Even if you didn't book,
the system has no way of knowing, so it adjusts pricing in real time. Also, if you're flying
during a holiday weekend or Monday morning when business travelers typically book, the algorithms
(04:35):
tighten inventory and raise prices faster. In short, these fare buckets aren't just economic,
they're behavioral. Now let's look at the cookies, algorithms, and the browser game. Let's bust a myth.
Do cookies really make prices go up? This is controversial. While there's no hard evidence
(04:56):
that airlines or reputable booking engines deliberately hike prices on repeat views,
many people swear they've seen it happen. I've seen it happen. What's more likely is that the flight
inventory changed in the few minutes between your searches, your session expired and reloaded with
different fare data, or you're being shown a slightly different fare because the site
(05:20):
has now profiled you differently. Your browser can track your behavior, and some less reputable
sites have been caught experimenting with dynamic pricing based on user data. So here's a pro tip,
use an incognito or private browsing window when searching for flights. It won't prevent fare
(05:41):
updates due to inventory changes, but it can reduce tracking. Finally, what can you do to
outsmart the system? Now that we understand what's happening behind the scenes, how can you work
with this system rather than against it? Well, first, clear your cookies or use incognito mode.
This prevents sites from tracking your search history and showing altered prices. Two, use fare
(06:05):
alert tools like Google Flights, Hopper, or Skyscanner. These track fares over time and
notify you when to book. Three, book on a Tuesday or a Wednesday. Statistically, this is when fares
are lowest because airlines release deals at the start of the week and competitors match them. Four,
(06:26):
check multiple booking sites. Prices can differ between Expedia, Google Flights, and the airline's
own website and travel agents. Five, look at the calendar, booking six to eight weeks ahead for
domestic and two to three months ahead for international tends to be the sweet spot. Six, avoid
(06:47):
booking on the weekend. This is when demand is high and prices often spike. If you're a frequent flyer,
consider using airline miles or loyalty programs to take advantage of price drops and seat upgrades.
Finally, the bigger picture here, airlines as tech companies. Airlines today aren't just
(07:08):
transportation providers, they are software companies in disguise. Yep, they invest millions
into tech that lets them adjust prices in milliseconds, predict your buying behavior,
analyze competitor prices across platforms, and trigger sales and promotions based on demand
(07:28):
patterns. So you're not just buying a seat, you are entering a game of predictive analytics and
behavioral economics. So the next time you see a flight price bounce up and down like a yo-yo,
know this, it's not random. It's the result of decades of research in economics, psychology,
and data science all converging in your browser window. And just like you wouldn't play poker
(07:55):
without knowing the rules, don't book a flight without understanding the game. So here are some
key takeaways. Airline prices change due to dynamic pricing algorithms based on demand,
timing, and fare inventory. Your searches may signal demand to the system, which can affect
pricing even within minutes. Using incognito mode and fare trackers helps avoid psychological
(08:21):
pricing traps. And understanding fare buckets and booking windows gives you the upper hand
in snagging the best deal. Thank you for tuning in to Flashcard Fridays at Math! Science! History!
and until next time, may you find the best fare for your next trip. Carpe diem, my friends.
It's FlashCards Fridays here at Math! Science! History! I'm your host, Gabrielle Birchak,
and today we're going to be looking into a problem that many of us have experienced.
Why do airline prices seem to jump around, sometimes within minutes after we search for a
flight? Stay tuned, you'll learn more after a word from our advertisers. So, you're looking for an
(00:27):
airline ticket, and you check once, it's $278. You think, hmm, maybe I'll wait a few hours,
talk to my loved one, you check again, it's $348. You wait a little bit longer,
and it's $292. What's going on here? Is your browser spying on you?
(00:47):
Of course it is. But are you being punished for hesitating? Of course you are.
Let's unpack this, pun intended, using the lenses of mathematics, behavioral science,
and a bit of airline economics. So, let's first look at the math behind airline pricing,
(01:08):
starting with the basics. Airlines use dynamic pricing models, which means the cost of a seat
on a flight isn't fixed. It changes constantly based on algorithms. These algorithms take into
account the following, time before departure, supply and demand, past sales patterns, competition,
(01:29):
weather and seasonality, and sometimes even the type of customer making the search. The math behind
this is rooted in something called revenue management, a field developed heavily in the
airline industry during the 1980s. It uses statistical modeling and probability to predict
how many seats should be sold at each price point to maximize profit. Here's how it works
(01:54):
in practice. Flights are divided into fare classes, like buckets. Each class represents a different
price level and often comes with its own rules, non-refundable, baggage limits, etc. If the lowest
fare bucket sells out, you move up to the next one. Even if there are 100 seats on a plane,
only a few may be allocated to the cheapest fare bucket. The airline's pricing algorithm estimates,
(02:20):
based on historical data, when to release more of these cheaper fares or pull them back.
Alright, now let's look at the behavioral psychology and perceived scarcity of the issue.
Why do you see the price go up after you search? Part of that is the airline reacting to demand
signals. Each time someone searches for a particular route, especially multiple people
(02:43):
around the same time, the algorithm reads that as increased interest. It might raise the price
in response. Some travel sites also track your searches through cookies and browser history.
While it's not confirmed that prices are raised deliberately on second searches, what's happening
(03:04):
is a bit more nuanced. Your cookies may place you in a customer segment that gets shown a slightly
different fare, perhaps assuming you are more willing to pay. There's also the idea of loss
aversion. When you see the price jump 50 bucks, your brain kicks into FOMO mode. That's fear of
(03:25):
missing out. You think, ah, I should have bought it earlier. And the next time you're quicker to
hit that book now button, the system has trained you to respond. This is an intentional psychological
mechanism. We see this in other industries too, like Uber's surge in pricing or Amazon's only
(03:45):
three left in stock pop-ups. Those are annoying. Okay, now let's look at the supply, demand,
and fare buckets. Imagine a flight from LAX to JFK has 150 seats. The airline might have 10 seats
at 200, 20 seats at 250, and 30 seats at 300, and so on, climbing all the way up to $900 for the last
(04:10):
minute traveler. If you and five other people are looking at that $250 fare at the same time,
and two people book it, you might get kicked up to the next fare tier. Even if you didn't book,
the system has no way of knowing, so it adjusts pricing in real time. Also, if you're flying
during a holiday weekend or Monday morning when business travelers typically book, the algorithms
(04:35):
tighten inventory and raise prices faster. In short, these fare buckets aren't just economic,
they're behavioral. Now let's look at the cookies, algorithms, and the browser game. Let's bust a myth.
Do cookies really make prices go up? This is controversial. While there's no hard evidence
(04:56):
that airlines or reputable booking engines deliberately hike prices on repeat views,
many people swear they've seen it happen. I've seen it happen. What's more likely is that the flight
inventory changed in the few minutes between your searches, your session expired and reloaded with
different fare data, or you're being shown a slightly different fare because the site
(05:20):
has now profiled you differently. Your browser can track your behavior, and some less reputable
sites have been caught experimenting with dynamic pricing based on user data. So here's a pro tip,
use an incognito or private browsing window when searching for flights. It won't prevent fare
(05:41):
updates due to inventory changes, but it can reduce tracking. Finally, what can you do to
outsmart the system? Now that we understand what's happening behind the scenes, how can you work
with this system rather than against it? Well, first, clear your cookies or use incognito mode.
This prevents sites from tracking your search history and showing altered prices. Two, use fare
(06:05):
alert tools like Google Flights, Hopper, or Skyscanner. These track fares over time and
notify you when to book. Three, book on a Tuesday or a Wednesday. Statistically, this is when fares
are lowest because airlines release deals at the start of the week and competitors match them. Four,
(06:26):
check multiple booking sites. Prices can differ between Expedia, Google Flights, and the airline's
own website and travel agents. Five, look at the calendar, booking six to eight weeks ahead for
domestic and two to three months ahead for international tends to be the sweet spot. Six, avoid
(06:47):
booking on the weekend. This is when demand is high and prices often spike. If you're a frequent flyer,
consider using airline miles or loyalty programs to take advantage of price drops and seat upgrades.
Finally, the bigger picture here, airlines as tech companies. Airlines today aren't just
(07:08):
transportation providers, they are software companies in disguise. Yep, they invest millions
into tech that lets them adjust prices in milliseconds, predict your buying behavior,
analyze competitor prices across platforms, and trigger sales and promotions based on demand
(07:28):
patterns. So you're not just buying a seat, you are entering a game of predictive analytics and
behavioral economics. So the next time you see a flight price bounce up and down like a yo-yo,
know this, it's not random. It's the result of decades of research in economics, psychology,
and data science all converging in your browser window. And just like you wouldn't play poker
(07:55):
without knowing the rules, don't book a flight without understanding the game. So here are some
key takeaways. Airline prices change due to dynamic pricing algorithms based on demand,
timing, and fare inventory. Your searches may signal demand to the system, which can affect
pricing even within minutes. Using incognito mode and fare trackers helps avoid psychological
(08:21):
pricing traps. And understanding fare buckets and booking windows gives you the upper hand
in snagging the best deal. Thank you for tuning in to Flashcard Fridays at Math! Science! History!
and until next time, may you find the best fare for your next trip. Carpe diem, my friends.
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