Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Eric Crittenden, chief investment officer at Standpoint Asset Management, says the market has weakened to where there are no "great, super-strong trends out there," but he thinks the market is entering a transition period where new trends will start and emerge. That transition may not include a recession, Crittenden says, because "the algebra says to me that it's going to be hard to have a recession," due to the government actions ...

Jeffrey Hirsch, chief executive at Hirsch Holdings and editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac — which tracks stock market performance relative to presidential terms and election cycles — says that while the upcoming election is no longer a battle between two second-term presidents, the potential election of a first-term president in Kamala Harris would not result in much change for the market. While first-term pr...

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation for SLC Investments, says investors are "pretty risk-on," meaning they expect the economy is headed to an environment where rates will settle down at reasonable levels and consumers will keep spending, creating a sound environment for investors. That extends to Europe and some international markets, which will help balance a portfolio that may be impacted by a downturn...

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that stock market valuations are extended to the point where "things need to be nearly perfect to justify those valuation levels." He is finding much better valuations internationally, noting that "Non-U.S. equity markets are cheap relative to the U.S. by an amount we have never seen before," which is why he is suggesting investors start nibbling and dollar-co...

Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that the economy is showing signs of slowing in some ways, while still having some measures being strong, and a lot of it is determined by consumers where the division between the haves and have-nots are growing, and where current conditions hurt people with less money dramatically more than the wealthy. Green says people are confusing the stock market's run to reco...

Peter Repetto, vice president of investment strategy at iCapital, says that while rate cuts historically are good for markets — gaining roughly 9 percent in the year after cuts start historically — they do struggle if cuts are made during times of recession or downturn. Repetto expects a soft landing and moderate downturn, which is setting up for reasonably well for "rate-cut beneficiary" businesses moving forward. Repetto notes th...

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that as long as the economy "keeps humming along" and meets high expectations for earnings growth and stable balance sheets, the current rally should keep rolling. When that trend breaks, however, the market and economy could turn quickly; St. Aubin sees "some cracks starting to form" with consumers and with some of the economic data, and while a soft la...

Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that the market is in the early stages of an impressive bull market, noting that the current rally is now about 20 months old and that the market has dramatic gains since hitting lows in October 2022, but she notes that the average bull market runs longer and gains more and there's still plenty of room for that. She says "We're feeling great about this market. W...

Michael Mullaney, Director of Global Markets Research at Boston Partners, says that the stock market is trading far enough above moving averages that it's due for a correction on the short term. As that pullback happens, he expects the Federal Reserve to kick in with rate cuts beginning in September, driven more by the jobs report than inflation numbers, but he notes that may not have more than a short-term st...

Jerremy Newsome, founder of Real Life Trading, says that with the election looming after the traditional summer-fall doldrums — and having already hit his profit targets for the year — he is about to move 100 percent into cash. "I think it's too easy right now," he says. "We're too high, it's too easy, everything is going straight up ... no reason not to be all up in cash up here for me." Newsome was clear that he's selling into st...

Tim Urbanowicz, head of investment strategy and research for the Innovator ETFs, says that the current bull market run has the stock market hitting new highs roughly every four days, which is fast compared even to the Internet bubble days, and while investors are nervous that things must take a turn, he points out that hitting all-time highs has never been a catalyst for a sell-off, and isn't likely to be one now. That makes it cru...

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says the economic cycle is now in its last stages, and while there may be a blow-off top before trouble is here, he expects a recession and he will not be surprised if it occurs after the Federa;l Reserve cuts interest rates. While many observers expect cuts to help markets, Schutte says that the Fed has never been able to  take an overheated e...

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says the market needs to "digest its gains," which he expects to turn into a "low teens selloff," but that will be a bull  market correction and not a catastrophic event like the 2008 financial crisis. Stovall expects the Federal Reserve to  make cuts starting in September, but he notes that the central bank is going to wait until it absolutely must make a move rather than mak...

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, was still in a festive Fourth of July mood, so instead of going to his usual spot in "The Danger Zone," he picked a quality, classic American business as a potential buy, singling out HF Sinclair, the oil company, for "The Attractive Zone." Between consistent growth in its dividend and stock buy-backs, Trainer says HF Sinclair could have a potential yield ...

Nikolaj Schmidt, chief international economist at T. Rowe Price, says he's expecting a correction soon "but it's not going to be something too deep or too dark or too scary," noting that the economic backdrop remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve can likely finish the year with just one rate cut. Schmid discusses T. Rowe's 2024 Mid-Year Outlook, and notes that he is concerned that with foreign central banks already having...

David Lubchenco, partner at Chautauqua Capital Management, says that the underperformance of foreign stocks for several years has been so extreme that relative valuations look good and international stocks are poised for a strong run whenever the market's next cycle begins. Lubchenco says that when there is a concentrated market like what investors have seen during the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks, it portends change ahead,...

Xander Gray, founder and chief executive officer at XG Capital Strategies, says that a bear market is coming, with a number of potential catalysts contributing to trigger the downturn. He says that while he expects a downturn of up to 30 percent, he does not expect it to take long. Further Gray says that for investors who have not been buying now likely want to wait until next year, with the market around record highs but likely to...

Jeff Timlin, head of municipal strategies at Sage Advisory Services, says that potential problems surfacing in the California and New York municipal bond markets  are telegraphing "an economic slowdown nationally," but that investors should not worry about a significant increase in defaults, and should instead find munis becoming increasingly attractive once the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. David Trainer, president of New ...

D.R. Barton Jr., Director of Market Research at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles,  says the longest cycles suggest that the market is topping out now, but 'near-term overbought doesn't bother me right now.' He is expecting more upside into the election and carrying into 2025 before any downturn is more dramatic than a simple buying opportunity. He says that he doesn't expect much downside risk until or unless the Standard & P...