Do Election Debates Move the Needle?

Now & Next – April 16, 2025 

Host: Dave Trafford
Guests:

• Anne-Marie Aikins (AMA Communications)
• Bob Reid (Broadview Strategy)
• Lindsay Broadhead (Broadhead Communications)

Episode Summary In this episode of Now and Next, Dave Trafford is joined by communications and strategy veterans Anne-Marie Aikins, Bob Reid, and Lindsay Broadhead to assess the rapidly shifting terrain of the federal election campaign in Ontario and beyond.

With the Liberals gaining ground and Mark Carney emerging as a surprisingly strong contender, the group explores the evolving dynamics, including Pierre Poilievre’s media strategy, the role of televised debates, and how both leaders are positioning themselves ahead of key showdowns.

They debate the effectiveness of the leaders' communications tactics and scrutinize the role of media and debate formats in shaping public perception. Key Takeaways

• Liberal Surge in Ontario: Polls suggest a double-digit lead for the Liberals in Ontario, marking a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of a Conservative stronghold.
• Carney’s Popularity: Mark Carney is gaining traction with voters, not just as an anti-Poilievre candidate but as a leader people are actively supporting.
• Debate Format Flaws: The panel critiques the debate commission’s decision to schedule debates around NHL games, highlighting the need for more rigorous and accessible formats.
• Media Access Matters: Poilievre’s strategy of avoiding media access may be backfiring, limiting his ability to shape his narrative while journalists like Katie Simpson shape it for him.
• Gender Gap: Poilievre’s support remains low among women, driven by personality and perceived lack of trustworthiness rather than policy alone.
• Strategic Silence or Stagnation?: While Carney is running a front-runner campaign, his lack of major announcements is raising questions about momentum.
• Calls for Debate Reform: There’s strong consensus that Canadian debates need to move away from performative brawls and toward meaningful, fact-checked discourse.