June 13, 2024 • 33 mins
Florida's population is growing at unbelievable rates. Learn about how we navigate retail site selection and operating decisions in this high growth state. Join host Britta Eriksson.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:02):
Show me some money.
A podcastabout how many is made in Florida retail.
I'm your host, Britta Eriksson.
Welcome back.
This episode,we're going to talk about growth
and how Florida has a lot of growth.
It's been steadily growing over many yearsand we're
now the third most populous statein the entire country.
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And because growth is happeningat such an impressive rate in Florida,
we ran out of room in the communitiesthat are currently growing,
and we have to find new communitiesto meet
that demand of peoplewho want to move here.
So there's constantly new communitiesthat are popping up
that did not have growthand all of a sudden are starting
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to experience growth at a very high level.
So it gets hard to predictwhen that growth is happening,
where it's going to happen,how many homes are going to be coming
online and realized in the marketversus just conceived.
And all those things affectwho needs retail
and how to meet that demandat the right time.
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And we're going to talk about how thatall affects Florida retail.
I really have
been overwhelmed with the support thatwe've been receiving for this podcast.
Thank you for everyone who's reached outand who's helped us spread the word.
People keep asking mewhat they can do to help.
And the number one thingthat you can do from my podcast
(01:29):
or anyone else's podcast is downloadthe episode.
So I know you listen,
but if you click the download button,that helps us even more.
Another thing is to share on social mediaor to send us a comment.
Put something, a positive,something that you like about our show.
Put somethingcompletely random in the comments.
Okay.
Some ground rules,some standard disclaimers.
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I'm not giving you specific advicefor your business,
but I'm just trying to share some of myexperiences from working in the industry
for over 20 years and primarily just starta conversation, ask some questions,
think about things in a different way,and open different mindsets.
So we're starting the conversationwith my specific experiences,
and I want to expand that
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to talking to others in the industryto share their perspectives as well.
So let's get started
with our second episodeand we're talking about all about growth.
There's only a couple states that are atthat 20 million mark around or above.
We got California,
we got Texas, we got Florida,which is third, and we have New York.
Everything else is just significantlylower, sort of 13, 12 million.
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There's a couple in there.
And then everything elseis sort of 8 million. And under.
So there are a lot of peoplewho live in Florida.
When we talk about these four states,Right, the big four, as I talk about them,
that representsabout a third of our population
in the entire countrylive in these four states.
Florida has a huge population.
There are a lot of people who live herefull time.
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We've already talked aboutthere's even more people in our last
episode who come here on vacationand who may only live here part time.
But we have a really large full timepopulation,
and that's continuing to growat very impressive rates.
But that wasn't always the case.
People did not want to live in Floridafor a long time.
We didn't have a large concentrationof population.
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So let's talka little bit about the timeline.
When we look back 100 years ago, Floridaonly had less than 1 million people here.
And to put that in context,we were the 32nd most populous state.
So if you put all the statesin order from 1 to 50, we were 32nd.
Not very high on the listtoday were third.
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So we've moved up that list quite a bit.
And moreand more people have wanted to live here.
And that growth has occurredreally in this past 50 years.
So from 1970 is when we really seethat growth happen and there's reasons
why and we'll get into that in a second.
But let's talk a little bitabout the horizon.
So growth in Florida has beenvery consistent for the past 50 years
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and for the past 50 yearsfrom the 1970 census to the 2020 census,
we are absorbing about 3 million peopleevery decade into our state.
To put that in perspective,
3 million people is roughlythe size of the Tampa MSA.
So the size of Hillsborough, PinellasCounty, and I believe also Pasco
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and Hernando Counties.
So a pretty massive area,right over 3 million people.
So 3 million people are coming downand moving into the state every ten years.
Let's say this in a different way.
Let's say thatthe amount of people that moved to Florida
every ten years is comparableto the entire population of Mississippi.
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It's like the entire statehas moved to Florida, and that happens
every ten years, consistentlyfor the past 50 years, or Nevada
or the size of Utah or Kansas.
It's that many people.
So more than a third of our statesin our country has a lower population
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in total, the total amount of peoplewho live there than what moves to Florida
every ten yearsconsistently for the past five decades.
And because growth is happeningat such an impressive rate
in so much of our state,it is really important
to stay on top of that,to understand how it affects retail.
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So now we've gone from being the 32ndmost populous state in 1920s,
to currently being the thirdmost populous state.
We have an estimated at 22.6 millionfull time residents,
doesnt include our seasonal population,doesnt include that
massive tourismthat we talked about last episode.
We just surpassed New Yorkand moved up from fourth to third.
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And that all really occurred in thisconcentrated time of the past 50 years.
So why doesn't growth take offuntil the 1970s?
Well, it does.
It starts its acceleration mid-century.
So like around 1950s.
But why is it until then?
I mean, heck, we have the oldestcolonized city in the entire country.
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1565,I believe Saint Augustine was founded.
So why does it take so long for peopleto really start
moving down here and buildinglarge populations in Florida?
Well, there's a few reasons for this.
So you have to think back towhen we did not have modern conveniences.
And in the middle of a centuryis when it starts to get
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a little bit more comfortableto live in Florida.
Prior to this, it'snot the most hospitable area.
So while its paradise.
The bad sort of outweighsthe good for a lot of people.
And it's very hot.
There are a lot of bugs and they carrydiseases and it's sort of out of the way.
It's not the easiest state to access.
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Were all the way down at the far southand we sort of just stick out in it.
It takes a little bit to get here.
We don't have modern roads,so all those things start to change
in the mid-century.
So one, we get effective chemical mosquitocontrol and we can control the bugs.
There was just a yellow fever outbreak.
A lot of people had died and we justdidn't have effective mosquito control.
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So now they do and that starts to improve.
People don't have to worry aboutthe diseases being carried by mosquitoes
as much.
Second, AC has been invented,but it's very expensive until mid-century.
So at that point in time,AC becomes affordable
and moreand more people can afford to have AC
and have a little bit of a breakfrom that intense heat that we have here.
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So the window unit gets invented.
More and more people have accessto air conditioning,
and now more and more peoplemay be willing to live here.
I mean, could you imagine living herewithout air conditioning?
I could not.
I probably would not.
So until that mid 1950s timeframe,you know,
the common persondoesn't have access to air conditioning.
So that all changes.
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And then one of the other big things thathappens is the Interstate act is signed.
And because we are so far,we are all the way down at the south,
we have railroads,but it's still very hard to get here.
And so what happens is the Interstate actsigned, we get I-10,
I-4, I-95 and I-75,and all of a sudden you have
these modern roadsthat get people down here with ease.
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So that really starts to encouragedevelopment along these corridors.
So that all starts coming about latefifties through the sixties.
But as we talked about,
tourism is very importantto telling people how great we are
in getting people to live down herefull time.
So tourism really starts to take off.
In the seventies.
So we now have the interstates,
we now start getting timesharesand condominium development.
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We also get our modern airports primarilyget developed in that seventies timeframe
and eighties timeframe, and that'swhen you see growth just take off.
At that point in time, Disney gets developmore and more people start
coming down here and vacationingand that's when you see those numbers
shoot up and that'swhen we start experiencing roughly that
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3 million people every ten yearsbeing absorbed into our state.
So all those things come into playand now we're on this
path of 3 millionevery ten years, five times in a row.
And Florida really captures that needand that demand
that people want to move hereand they incorporate into our Constitution
in 1968, the state will not levy stateincome tax, inheritance tax or estate tax,
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which is a huge motivatorfor people to come and move here.
So take a moment
and just think about how recent the growthis that's around you.
Think about the roadwaysand the new communities and areas
that had no development.
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And now you drive downand there's development after development
after development.
Think about how short of a time spanthat that has been created in.
So if you've lived here 30 years ago,you see a lot of changes in the market,
but it doesn't need to be that long.
It can even be ten years ago.
And you can really feel these transitionsin these markets,
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brand new communities that barely existedbefore are now fully populated.
It's really interestingto see the massive growth
and how it gets developed in Florida,how I like to look at growth
and think about growthis sort of that width of the growth.
And so in most communities
you can sort of measure the progressionof growth by looking at the shoreline
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where the most desirable portionof a community typically is located,
because people want to be on the water,they want to be on the beach.
And that's typicallywhat first gets developed and then sort of
how wide that gets.
So for a long time,a lot of the development was concentrated
in most communities in Floridafrom the shoreline to the interstate.
And then as development has kept comingand growth has kept happening,
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you see these communities get widerand wider and wider,
passing the interstateand going much farther beyond.
So I first moved here, I moved to CollierCounty, and Collier County
was limitedto that west of the interstate primarily.
There were some homes out east,but most development in the community
was from Interstate75 to the Gulf of Mexico,
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and that area was a concentrated areaof about five miles.
So it's only about five miles wide.
And then it really was Livingston Road,so like four miles.
So over the years,you can see that development continuing
to expand further eastand further away from the water.
So as we get there, we now are looking atcommunities, large scale development
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happening 20,25 miles away from the shoreline.
Take a momentand think about the community that you may
live in or operate in and think aboutwhen that community jumped the interstate.
Think of the large scale communitiesthat were up here
at the beginning of the 2000s.
We're talking Oakleaf, Nocatee LakeNona, Hamlin,
Champion s Gate, Angeline, Bobcat Ranch, Ava Maria, Trinity and Starkey Ranch
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and the list goesAll these neighborhoods of thousands
and thousands of homesdid not exist in the very recent past.
All that retail that's been builtto support them, probably
many of the areas you may be lookingin was not there.
They were roads with no development,farmland,
very little populationin these communities.
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Think about the new communitiesthat are under development right now
near you and the thousands of homesthat will be coming to the areas
and how the new retail demandswill be created in those areas.
High growth marketsundeniably have a lot of opportunity,
but they also have a lot of risksin understanding those markets.
There's a lot of problems with it.
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The data gets a little off.
It doesn't necessarily keep up withthe growth that's happening in the market.
It also maybe shows us a potentialthat isn't realized for a very long time,
and we may plan for that end potentialwhen in reality we're not quite there yet.
And that may cost us moneyin the meantime.
In addition to that, these marketscan be very vulnerable to things outside
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of our control, economic conditionsthat disrupt that timeline, that disrupt
when customers are living in these homesand actually shopping in your stores.
So it's not just about analyzing our entryinto a market
and understanding the right time to enter,which can be very difficult.
It's also about keeping a pulseon that information
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and adjusting our business
and our inventory and how we are meetingthe needs of the customers
who are currently thereat that moment in time.
All of those pieces are changingso rapidly
and it's really importantthat you don't spoil your inventory
and lose out on salesbecause you maybe don't know the customers
are there or you think more customersare there than they are.
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You can't just open your doors and expect
the same market dayafter day, year after year.
It is constantly evolving.
Additional people are constantly moving inand so is competition.
I think something that's very easyto forget about in a high growth
market is a lot of other retailersalso want to be there
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and so it can be competitiveto get into the best location.
And you may also forget about that.
There may be no one serving thatmarket today, but what that future
looks like, how many other peopleare going to be dividing up that pie
and sharing the existing salesfrom that community
and you can't control what they do.
You have to sort of analyzehow to best position yourself
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both from a location standpointand a timing standpoint.
There may not be as many barriersto locate to a market
where other barriers may be more clearlydefined in an existing market where
there's only certain locations to go,maybe not a lot of land to be developed.
There's only so much opportunity
and so much additional competitionthat can enter.
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This market the competitionwould be constantly changing.
New developments may be happening at alldifferent corners that you may not expect.
You may think that you're the onlycoffee shop that's entering the community.
And then three national chains opennext to you.
So in a growing new community,there's a lot of things
changing besides new people coming there.
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There's also new competition.
So, you know,you can only keep a pulse on it
and you can't prevent thatand you can't stop that.
And that's just sort of a natural riskin a high growth market.
But it's important to keep tabs on it,to understand
who's coming into the market, wherewhen people are coming into the market.
There is so much informationthat is online that can really help
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you monitorhow your markets are changing and growing.
So you know howyou can adjust your business
and you can plan aheadto differentiate yourself
from new competitionwho comes in the market.
So in most communitiesand a lot of cities and municipalities,
especially in Florida,because we have very good online
platformsthat the municipalities provide us.
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A lot of times we can look at the growththat's happening.
We can see who's applying for a permit,who's applying for a new development,
how growth is changingin those communities.
So I always encourage retailersto keep tabs on that information.
It's accessible in most communitiesand it really can make a difference
so that you can plan aheadinstead of react once your sales decline
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after a new competitor enters the market,you really want to be on the front end
and ahead of the curve versusbeing reactive to that situation.
We canall lament Florida is a little different.
It doesn't behave by the norms that therest of the country may be behaving by.
Heck,we literally have more people dying here
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on an annual basis than are being born.
So we have a negative birth rate
and we still have excessive growth,just crazy amounts of growth.
Some of the highest growthin the entire country is happening here.
But yet we have more people dyingthan being born in our state.
That's a little different.
We have a lot of peoplewho have homes here
and they don't live in them full timethat they maybe only live here part time
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or have a vacation home.
That mass of how that happens throughoutour state is a little different.
The amount of growthand how much of it is occurring in areas
that had very limited growthbefore more rural communities
and all of a sudden large scalemass of communities are developed,
thousands of homes, complete new townscome online.
That's a little different.
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So when we look at growth methodologythat is, you know, very strong
throughout the rest of the countryand we look at it
and we're basing it on building permitsor basing it on where someone's
reporting income to the IRSand all these other factors.
We miss out on some things that areimportant to us in Florida retail.
And what I found is that populationgrowth is not synonymous
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with available customers.
So this is my experience,and I may completely differ
from your experience,but when I started in retail,
I started in Florida and I was tasked withunderstanding these high growth markets
and really expanding different storesand looking at different methodologies
and looking at different datato determine accurate sales projections.
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And when you first startedlooking at that information,
we started noticing this offsetfrom population to customers.
And when we tried to project salesand we apply it
to the estimated population,those numbers weren't really jiving.
They weren'ttranslating to accurate projections.
So we started to have tolook at the markets a little bit
different, really understandhow many customers were available
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when they were there,how long they were there during the year,
and come up with really viable salesprojections based on that.
And I really was able to bring this marginof error down to a very low level.
We got to a point where we were sub2% on sales projections,
which is amazing in any market, especiallyone that's very dynamic in high growth.
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And we noticed when we were
in the middle of the decade, we had a lotof variation in those numbers.
The different data sourcesthat we were using to project
how many customers were in a marketwas not the same as what these population
estimates were showing us.They were pretty far off.
But then once we got backto the next census, in the next full
accounting of how many people are there,then those numbers sort of caught up and
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were very close to one another.
We really have a hard timeusing growth projections to be synonymous
with customers and having that equateto accurate sales projections.
And this could lead to reallyunderestimating the market potential. But
that's not the only risk with high growthmarkets we see people underestimate.
But we also see themoverestimate the markets.
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We see people rely on thisbuilt out version of that market
well before it's ever realized,well before it's ever real.
Retailers can get very enamoredby the promise of growth,
this phantom growth that exists, vacantplots of land with no people there yet,
but this idea that there's going to bethis whole new market
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created out of nothing, thatthousands of homes are coming to an area
that once had very limitedresidential, it's hard to not get excited
about that concept,especially when you see these large scale
communities all on a mapthat comes to you in a marketing package.
And you see these numbers of two thousand,and four thousand,
and five thousand, and ten thousand homes,you want to be a part of that.
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You want to get in on the ground floorand be in that market.
But this way of thinkinghas its own problems.
This mindset creates a visionthat just doesn't exist.
It truly is phantom growth at this point.
It's very important to not get swept away
with what the future may hold,and you want to be a part of that.
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You want to calculate toward that number,
but you have to apply timingto these homes.
When at what point are you going to havea minimum viable market?
We think about minimum viable productsall the time.
We talk about it in our companiesand we see, you know, what is the minimum
viable product that I can bring to marketthat early adopters will purchase
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and I will make money.
And that's the same mindset that we thinkabout in high growth markets.
With the real estate,we're looking for a minimum viable market.
What are the early adopters who are goingto come and live in that community?
Who is going to come and buy a home therebefore?
There'snothing really in the neighborhood yet?
When do we start
having enough of those people thereto make enough sales to be profitable?
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It gets really easy to be enamored by just
how many households are planned foran area, and it's very easy to overlook
that there is a timeframeand a horizon of how those households
have to be built and absorbedand have people actually living in them
who are actually customersfor your business.
You have to understand at what pointyou have a minimum viable market base.
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When are the minimum amountpeople going to be
in that neighborhoodto support your store? Yes.
Or maybe 50,000 homescoming at some point in time.
But those are just vacantplots of land right now.
It's really hard to make any moneyfrom a vacant plot of land.
You need customers in a homewho then they're shopping
habits, would support a store there.
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Another thing that people don'tthink about is the time of day.
A lot of new communities in high growthmarkets.
People don't necessarilystay there during the day.
The employment comes laterand until that time people are working
in other communities typicallyand they're not staying
in the local communityand spending money during the daytime.
They're going during the workweek
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to wherever they're working,whether it be in a downtown metro area
or just another suburban areathat has more established businesses.
And then they are going thereand commuting.
They're spending their money there
and not spending as much moneyin their home community.
And that really changesthat minimum viable market.
And you have to take this extra timeto sort of calculate, well,
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if people aren't here
during the daytime, Monday through Friday,how am I going to make it?
What kind of population,
what kind of salescan I derive during the times
that people are actually in the market?
And so that's somethingto think about too,
and that's something that I feelthat a lot of people overlook.
You can feel like you're out of control.
There is so much that's outof your control in a high growth market.
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It's a little bit of a dice roll.
You try to pick the best locationat the right time and still,
if you do everything right, the marketcould turn, the homes could not get built.
Other people can comein, take some of your business
because there's so much sort of unknownwhen you start.
You just may make a wrong prediction.
And so what I recommend in highgrowth markets, because there's
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a lot of advantages to being in them,I really recommend trying to monitor,
trying to stay on top of those changesand be more proactive versus reactive
and do what you can, plan your businessthe way you can
if you're going to have some downturnor you're not going to have as many people
as you thought
in a certain time, adjust your inventoryand just how much frozen yogurt you have.
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So it doesn't spoil in your fridge.
So you have to sort of monitorthose different components
and then you have to understandwhat the catalysts in
the market areand what starts to change that.
And it's all about getting to a minimumviable market
so that you're operating a businessthat's profitable
and that you're also planningas much as you can
for if you are going to lose moneyfor a couple of years until that
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market picks up, what you can't sustainwhat's tolerable.
So you have to hit the timing right
And you have to understand, well,maybe I'm going to take a hit
and I want to get into the community firstand so I'm going to get that best corner
and I'm going to go in therefive years early or I'm going to go there
even ten years earlyas we see some of the top retailers do.
But we're going to get those corners.
We're going to get the best locations orwe're going to get into the Publix center
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and the whole center.
There'sonly like 20,000 square feet of shops.
And if I don't get my nail salon in therenow, I'm never going to get the space.
I'm never going to get a shot.
But it's understanding that the growthmay not be coming when you think it is
and is to take a step further,to really get immersed in your community
and understand who's in the homeswhen they're coming there,
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when they're going to spend moneyin your store or your location,
and how to plan for that,how to make better retail decisions
in your communities.
But understandthere is a gamble with that.
And so try to predict what that minimumviable market is at what time it comes.
I feel that most people I talked toare not looking at that
in between, are not trying to apply a timeframe to it.
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I'm just encouraging youto look at additional resources
and if you're open in a high growthmarket, just really to use the resources
that are available to you,
seek out people at your city,at your county that you operate in.
Your economic development councilstalk with them, try to get a handle on
what is happening in your marketbecause it's going to continue to change.
And if you aren't aware ofwhat's happening,
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you're not going to be able to reallymaximize your profit from those changes.
Try to not rely on what's projectedin the sometime future
or try to understandthat timeline of absorption of what's
actually being built, what's actuallyhappening in the community.
Growth is not instantand growth cannot be fully relied on
as economic changeshappen in our macro economies.
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It may stop development in the area.
So areas that maybe have proposed homesof 50,000 or 20,000 or whatever
the number may be,that may take a longer time to get built.
South HillsboroughCounty was a great example of that.
A lot of that development was occurringat the beginning of the 2000s,
really pushed forward up
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through the financial crisisand then a lot of those proposed homes
and proposed communities just stoppedand then they did get built.
But it took many more yearsfor those homes
to actually have people living in themand being meaningful to the retailers
and the restaurants and the other servicesin those communities
where those people were actually thereto spend money in them.
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So what are the numberstelling us right now?
What are our current trends?
We look at the numbers.
We are seeing a lot of growth, more growththan we have for the past 50 years.
So that 3 million numberthat we talk about every ten years.
We're trending higher than that.
So right nowwe're talking about full time residents.
We also have a lot of part time,
but we're talking about the growthof the full time population.
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So what are our trendstelling us about that?
Well, one thing to think aboutjust holistically,
we have a heck of a lot of people retiringright now.
The baby boomers are in the retirement ageand we've got another decade
of baby boomers retiring.
Florida is a very desirablefrom a retirement standpoint.
And a lot of people chooseto move to Florida for retirement.
So because we have such a large segmentof the population retiring
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at the same time, that is going to fuelour population growth.
I feel for about the next ten years.
So if we look at the census numbersand we look at the numbers
that they are projectingfor each year and growth,
which we've already talkedabout, can be understated
because of some of the unique factorsin the Florida market.
If we look at that based on these currenttrends, we would be projected to be about
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3.4 million more peopleby the time we get to the next census.
So at 2030 we'd be up to almost 25 million
people, up from the 21.5that was counted in 2020.
And that is a higher growththan we've been experiencing.
We are projected to be at a higher ratethan we have been for the past 50 years.
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We've already talked about for the past
fifty yearswe've been at extraordinary numbers
and right now we're trainingto be even higher than that.
And so it's going to be very interestingto see how everything plays out and how
the 2030 census comes to be.
So a lotcan happen, though, in the next six years.
There could be economic disruptionand different events
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that cause that number to changeand that trend to change.
But if we keep with the current trendthat we've been experiencing,
we'll be arriving right at about that25 million mark.
That could also be a little lightfrom different factors in Florida.
So I'm very curious about whatthese numbers are going to be
and how they're going to shape up,especially with everything that recently
happened with COVIDand how a lot more people move down here.
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Honestly,COVID has been a little bit crazy,
and the movement
and transition that happened during COVID,I think introduces even more volatility
and maybe differentials than we currentlyexperience with these numbers.
And COVID was happening right atthe same time the census was being taken.
So we're accounting
for all the population of whereeveryone is in the entire country.
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And during that time,
everyone is moving aroundand a lot of people are moving to Florida.
They may be quite weren't where they arenow at the time that the census was taken.
So again, in 2020, we're taking the censuscovid's happening.
People are choosing a lotof different reasons to move to Florida.
One, a younger generationcan work from home and live here, right?
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They have more flexibilitythan they ever have.
They will have to wait until they retire
and they maybe are moving down hereto work from home from Florida.
We saw that happening.
Second a lot of people had alreadyhad a second residence down here.
They were seasonal residents.
They would come down here and livepart time and they're like, you know what?
We want to be in Floridafull time right now.
We want to transition
from a seasonal residentto a full time resident,
(30:20):
and we're just going to move down therepermanently.
And during COVID, a lot of peoplechose to also retire early.
They didn't want to, you know,be exposed in their workplace to COVID.
And they said, hey, you know what?
We're going to take that early retirementand we're going to leave our job.
So we also saw a push of peoplewho retired early and moved down here.
So all these things were happening.
Florida was just desirableto a lot of people during COVID
(30:42):
for their their personal needson top of those things.
And so we had a lot of movementand you can feel it right,
Like you can feel the amount of peoplethat are here.
So there's again, more vacationpeople, more seasonal residents.
But then all these pushes for full timeresident increases as well.
And so I'm really interestedto see the 2030 census
because I expect that those numbersare going to be even higher.
(31:07):
I think we're going to have a little bitmore of a catch up effect that we talked
about between those customer numbersand the growth projections.
And I think we're going to be above25 million.
And it's we have to see if that continues,if the economics and the environment
allows for that growth to sustain through2030.
Growth is part of our landscape.
(31:27):
Growth is constant in Florida.
New communities are popping up every day.
Existing communities are growing
as fast as they canbecause people want to be here.
So take a moment and think about howyou can reach those growing populations.
And maybe thereexisting in your community.
Maybe they're on the outskirtsof your community.
Maybe you're thinking about openinga store in those high growth new areas.
(31:51):
How are you going to reach thesenew residents?
How are you going to analyzewhen they're coming in to the market?
So you can plan your inventory,you can plan your marketing to them.
How are you planning your second store?
Maybe you're currently reachingsome of that community that's a little bit
farther away in an existing location,and maybe you're going to open
a second storein the center of where that new growth is.
(32:14):
Try to understand the timeline of growth,trying to understand
the absorptionof when that growth is actually realized
and not just stated as 2000 homesor 20,000 homes coming to an area.
Really badsales come from vacant plots of land.
And until there's warm bodies in thereand until that community
is economically stable with new homesand new residents in the community,
(32:38):
it makes it really hardto make your sales.
So it's all about understanding growthin a multidimensional way
so that you can make the best of Floridaretail sales.
Remember to download the episode,
share our show on social media,and also leave us a comment.
Tell us what you like about the show.
This is your host, Britta Erikssonand we look forward to seeing you
(33:01):
next month here at Show Me Some Money.
Show Me Some Money, a podcastabout how money is made in Florida.
Retail.
Show me some money.
A podcastabout how many is made in Florida retail.
I'm your host, Britta Eriksson.
Welcome back.
This episode,we're going to talk about growth
and how Florida has a lot of growth.
It's been steadily growing over many yearsand we're
now the third most populous statein the entire country.
(00:26):
And because growth is happeningat such an impressive rate in Florida,
we ran out of room in the communitiesthat are currently growing,
and we have to find new communitiesto meet
that demand of peoplewho want to move here.
So there's constantly new communitiesthat are popping up
that did not have growthand all of a sudden are starting
(00:46):
to experience growth at a very high level.
So it gets hard to predictwhen that growth is happening,
where it's going to happen,how many homes are going to be coming
online and realized in the marketversus just conceived.
And all those things affectwho needs retail
and how to meet that demandat the right time.
(01:07):
And we're going to talk about how thatall affects Florida retail.
I really have
been overwhelmed with the support thatwe've been receiving for this podcast.
Thank you for everyone who's reached outand who's helped us spread the word.
People keep asking mewhat they can do to help.
And the number one thingthat you can do from my podcast
(01:29):
or anyone else's podcast is downloadthe episode.
So I know you listen,
but if you click the download button,that helps us even more.
Another thing is to share on social mediaor to send us a comment.
Put something, a positive,something that you like about our show.
Put somethingcompletely random in the comments.
Okay.
Some ground rules,some standard disclaimers.
(01:51):
I'm not giving you specific advicefor your business,
but I'm just trying to share some of myexperiences from working in the industry
for over 20 years and primarily just starta conversation, ask some questions,
think about things in a different way,and open different mindsets.
So we're starting the conversationwith my specific experiences,
and I want to expand that
(02:11):
to talking to others in the industryto share their perspectives as well.
So let's get started
with our second episodeand we're talking about all about growth.
There's only a couple states that are atthat 20 million mark around or above.
We got California,
we got Texas, we got Florida,which is third, and we have New York.
Everything else is just significantlylower, sort of 13, 12 million.
(02:35):
There's a couple in there.
And then everything elseis sort of 8 million. And under.
So there are a lot of peoplewho live in Florida.
When we talk about these four states,Right, the big four, as I talk about them,
that representsabout a third of our population
in the entire countrylive in these four states.
Florida has a huge population.
There are a lot of people who live herefull time.
(02:58):
We've already talked aboutthere's even more people in our last
episode who come here on vacationand who may only live here part time.
But we have a really large full timepopulation,
and that's continuing to growat very impressive rates.
But that wasn't always the case.
People did not want to live in Floridafor a long time.
We didn't have a large concentrationof population.
(03:20):
So let's talka little bit about the timeline.
When we look back 100 years ago, Floridaonly had less than 1 million people here.
And to put that in context,we were the 32nd most populous state.
So if you put all the statesin order from 1 to 50, we were 32nd.
Not very high on the listtoday were third.
(03:40):
So we've moved up that list quite a bit.
And moreand more people have wanted to live here.
And that growth has occurredreally in this past 50 years.
So from 1970 is when we really seethat growth happen and there's reasons
why and we'll get into that in a second.
But let's talk a little bitabout the horizon.
So growth in Florida has beenvery consistent for the past 50 years
(04:01):
and for the past 50 yearsfrom the 1970 census to the 2020 census,
we are absorbing about 3 million peopleevery decade into our state.
To put that in perspective,
3 million people is roughlythe size of the Tampa MSA.
So the size of Hillsborough, PinellasCounty, and I believe also Pasco
(04:21):
and Hernando Counties.
So a pretty massive area,right over 3 million people.
So 3 million people are coming downand moving into the state every ten years.
Let's say this in a different way.
Let's say thatthe amount of people that moved to Florida
every ten years is comparableto the entire population of Mississippi.
(04:44):
It's like the entire statehas moved to Florida, and that happens
every ten years, consistentlyfor the past 50 years, or Nevada
or the size of Utah or Kansas.
It's that many people.
So more than a third of our statesin our country has a lower population
(05:05):
in total, the total amount of peoplewho live there than what moves to Florida
every ten yearsconsistently for the past five decades.
And because growth is happeningat such an impressive rate
in so much of our state,it is really important
to stay on top of that,to understand how it affects retail.
(05:26):
So now we've gone from being the 32ndmost populous state in 1920s,
to currently being the thirdmost populous state.
We have an estimated at 22.6 millionfull time residents,
doesnt include our seasonal population,doesnt include that
massive tourismthat we talked about last episode.
We just surpassed New Yorkand moved up from fourth to third.
(05:50):
And that all really occurred in thisconcentrated time of the past 50 years.
So why doesn't growth take offuntil the 1970s?
Well, it does.
It starts its acceleration mid-century.
So like around 1950s.
But why is it until then?
I mean, heck, we have the oldestcolonized city in the entire country.
(06:12):
1565,I believe Saint Augustine was founded.
So why does it take so long for peopleto really start
moving down here and buildinglarge populations in Florida?
Well, there's a few reasons for this.
So you have to think back towhen we did not have modern conveniences.
And in the middle of a centuryis when it starts to get
(06:34):
a little bit more comfortableto live in Florida.
Prior to this, it'snot the most hospitable area.
So while its paradise.
The bad sort of outweighsthe good for a lot of people.
And it's very hot.
There are a lot of bugs and they carrydiseases and it's sort of out of the way.
It's not the easiest state to access.
(06:55):
Were all the way down at the far southand we sort of just stick out in it.
It takes a little bit to get here.
We don't have modern roads,so all those things start to change
in the mid-century.
So one, we get effective chemical mosquitocontrol and we can control the bugs.
There was just a yellow fever outbreak.
A lot of people had died and we justdidn't have effective mosquito control.
(07:17):
So now they do and that starts to improve.
People don't have to worry aboutthe diseases being carried by mosquitoes
as much.
Second, AC has been invented,but it's very expensive until mid-century.
So at that point in time,AC becomes affordable
and moreand more people can afford to have AC
and have a little bit of a breakfrom that intense heat that we have here.
(07:41):
So the window unit gets invented.
More and more people have accessto air conditioning,
and now more and more peoplemay be willing to live here.
I mean, could you imagine living herewithout air conditioning?
I could not.
I probably would not.
So until that mid 1950s timeframe,you know,
the common persondoesn't have access to air conditioning.
So that all changes.
(08:01):
And then one of the other big things thathappens is the Interstate act is signed.
And because we are so far,we are all the way down at the south,
we have railroads,but it's still very hard to get here.
And so what happens is the Interstate actsigned, we get I-10,
I-4, I-95 and I-75,and all of a sudden you have
these modern roadsthat get people down here with ease.
(08:24):
So that really starts to encouragedevelopment along these corridors.
So that all starts coming about latefifties through the sixties.
But as we talked about,
tourism is very importantto telling people how great we are
in getting people to live down herefull time.
So tourism really starts to take off.
In the seventies.
So we now have the interstates,
we now start getting timesharesand condominium development.
(08:47):
We also get our modern airports primarilyget developed in that seventies timeframe
and eighties timeframe, and that'swhen you see growth just take off.
At that point in time, Disney gets developmore and more people start
coming down here and vacationingand that's when you see those numbers
shoot up and that'swhen we start experiencing roughly that
(09:08):
3 million people every ten yearsbeing absorbed into our state.
So all those things come into playand now we're on this
path of 3 millionevery ten years, five times in a row.
And Florida really captures that needand that demand
that people want to move hereand they incorporate into our Constitution
in 1968, the state will not levy stateincome tax, inheritance tax or estate tax,
(09:32):
which is a huge motivatorfor people to come and move here.
So take a moment
and just think about how recent the growthis that's around you.
Think about the roadwaysand the new communities and areas
that had no development.
(09:53):
And now you drive downand there's development after development
after development.
Think about how short of a time spanthat that has been created in.
So if you've lived here 30 years ago,you see a lot of changes in the market,
but it doesn't need to be that long.
It can even be ten years ago.
And you can really feel these transitionsin these markets,
(10:14):
brand new communities that barely existedbefore are now fully populated.
It's really interestingto see the massive growth
and how it gets developed in Florida,how I like to look at growth
and think about growthis sort of that width of the growth.
And so in most communities
you can sort of measure the progressionof growth by looking at the shoreline
(10:35):
where the most desirable portionof a community typically is located,
because people want to be on the water,they want to be on the beach.
And that's typicallywhat first gets developed and then sort of
how wide that gets.
So for a long time,a lot of the development was concentrated
in most communities in Floridafrom the shoreline to the interstate.
And then as development has kept comingand growth has kept happening,
(10:58):
you see these communities get widerand wider and wider,
passing the interstateand going much farther beyond.
So I first moved here, I moved to CollierCounty, and Collier County
was limitedto that west of the interstate primarily.
There were some homes out east,but most development in the community
was from Interstate75 to the Gulf of Mexico,
(11:20):
and that area was a concentrated areaof about five miles.
So it's only about five miles wide.
And then it really was Livingston Road,so like four miles.
So over the years,you can see that development continuing
to expand further eastand further away from the water.
So as we get there, we now are looking atcommunities, large scale development
(11:40):
happening 20,25 miles away from the shoreline.
Take a momentand think about the community that you may
live in or operate in and think aboutwhen that community jumped the interstate.
Think of the large scale communitiesthat were up here
at the beginning of the 2000s.
We're talking Oakleaf, Nocatee LakeNona, Hamlin,
Champion s Gate, Angeline, Bobcat Ranch, Ava Maria, Trinity and Starkey Ranch
(12:05):
and the list goesAll these neighborhoods of thousands
and thousands of homesdid not exist in the very recent past.
All that retail that's been builtto support them, probably
many of the areas you may be lookingin was not there.
They were roads with no development,farmland,
very little populationin these communities.
(12:25):
Think about the new communitiesthat are under development right now
near you and the thousands of homesthat will be coming to the areas
and how the new retail demandswill be created in those areas.
High growth marketsundeniably have a lot of opportunity,
but they also have a lot of risksin understanding those markets.
There's a lot of problems with it.
(12:46):
The data gets a little off.
It doesn't necessarily keep up withthe growth that's happening in the market.
It also maybe shows us a potentialthat isn't realized for a very long time,
and we may plan for that end potentialwhen in reality we're not quite there yet.
And that may cost us moneyin the meantime.
In addition to that, these marketscan be very vulnerable to things outside
(13:11):
of our control, economic conditionsthat disrupt that timeline, that disrupt
when customers are living in these homesand actually shopping in your stores.
So it's not just about analyzing our entryinto a market
and understanding the right time to enter,which can be very difficult.
It's also about keeping a pulseon that information
(13:33):
and adjusting our business
and our inventory and how we are meetingthe needs of the customers
who are currently thereat that moment in time.
All of those pieces are changingso rapidly
and it's really importantthat you don't spoil your inventory
and lose out on salesbecause you maybe don't know the customers
are there or you think more customersare there than they are.
(13:55):
You can't just open your doors and expect
the same market dayafter day, year after year.
It is constantly evolving.
Additional people are constantly moving inand so is competition.
I think something that's very easyto forget about in a high growth
market is a lot of other retailersalso want to be there
(14:16):
and so it can be competitiveto get into the best location.
And you may also forget about that.
There may be no one serving thatmarket today, but what that future
looks like, how many other peopleare going to be dividing up that pie
and sharing the existing salesfrom that community
and you can't control what they do.
You have to sort of analyzehow to best position yourself
(14:39):
both from a location standpointand a timing standpoint.
There may not be as many barriersto locate to a market
where other barriers may be more clearlydefined in an existing market where
there's only certain locations to go,maybe not a lot of land to be developed.
There's only so much opportunity
and so much additional competitionthat can enter.
(15:01):
This market the competitionwould be constantly changing.
New developments may be happening at alldifferent corners that you may not expect.
You may think that you're the onlycoffee shop that's entering the community.
And then three national chains opennext to you.
So in a growing new community,there's a lot of things
changing besides new people coming there.
(15:22):
There's also new competition.
So, you know,you can only keep a pulse on it
and you can't prevent thatand you can't stop that.
And that's just sort of a natural riskin a high growth market.
But it's important to keep tabs on it,to understand
who's coming into the market, wherewhen people are coming into the market.
There is so much informationthat is online that can really help
(15:45):
you monitorhow your markets are changing and growing.
So you know howyou can adjust your business
and you can plan aheadto differentiate yourself
from new competitionwho comes in the market.
So in most communitiesand a lot of cities and municipalities,
especially in Florida,because we have very good online
platformsthat the municipalities provide us.
(16:05):
A lot of times we can look at the growththat's happening.
We can see who's applying for a permit,who's applying for a new development,
how growth is changingin those communities.
So I always encourage retailersto keep tabs on that information.
It's accessible in most communitiesand it really can make a difference
so that you can plan aheadinstead of react once your sales decline
(16:28):
after a new competitor enters the market,you really want to be on the front end
and ahead of the curve versusbeing reactive to that situation.
We canall lament Florida is a little different.
It doesn't behave by the norms that therest of the country may be behaving by.
Heck,we literally have more people dying here
(16:51):
on an annual basis than are being born.
So we have a negative birth rate
and we still have excessive growth,just crazy amounts of growth.
Some of the highest growthin the entire country is happening here.
But yet we have more people dyingthan being born in our state.
That's a little different.
We have a lot of peoplewho have homes here
and they don't live in them full timethat they maybe only live here part time
(17:15):
or have a vacation home.
That mass of how that happens throughoutour state is a little different.
The amount of growthand how much of it is occurring in areas
that had very limited growthbefore more rural communities
and all of a sudden large scalemass of communities are developed,
thousands of homes, complete new townscome online.
That's a little different.
(17:35):
So when we look at growth methodologythat is, you know, very strong
throughout the rest of the countryand we look at it
and we're basing it on building permitsor basing it on where someone's
reporting income to the IRSand all these other factors.
We miss out on some things that areimportant to us in Florida retail.
And what I found is that populationgrowth is not synonymous
(17:58):
with available customers.
So this is my experience,and I may completely differ
from your experience,but when I started in retail,
I started in Florida and I was tasked withunderstanding these high growth markets
and really expanding different storesand looking at different methodologies
and looking at different datato determine accurate sales projections.
(18:19):
And when you first startedlooking at that information,
we started noticing this offsetfrom population to customers.
And when we tried to project salesand we apply it
to the estimated population,those numbers weren't really jiving.
They weren'ttranslating to accurate projections.
So we started to have tolook at the markets a little bit
different, really understandhow many customers were available
(18:43):
when they were there,how long they were there during the year,
and come up with really viable salesprojections based on that.
And I really was able to bring this marginof error down to a very low level.
We got to a point where we were sub2% on sales projections,
which is amazing in any market, especiallyone that's very dynamic in high growth.
(19:04):
And we noticed when we were
in the middle of the decade, we had a lotof variation in those numbers.
The different data sourcesthat we were using to project
how many customers were in a marketwas not the same as what these population
estimates were showing us.They were pretty far off.
But then once we got backto the next census, in the next full
accounting of how many people are there,then those numbers sort of caught up and
(19:27):
were very close to one another.
We really have a hard timeusing growth projections to be synonymous
with customers and having that equateto accurate sales projections.
And this could lead to reallyunderestimating the market potential. But
that's not the only risk with high growthmarkets we see people underestimate.
But we also see themoverestimate the markets.
(19:48):
We see people rely on thisbuilt out version of that market
well before it's ever realized,well before it's ever real.
Retailers can get very enamoredby the promise of growth,
this phantom growth that exists, vacantplots of land with no people there yet,
but this idea that there's going to bethis whole new market
(20:08):
created out of nothing, thatthousands of homes are coming to an area
that once had very limitedresidential, it's hard to not get excited
about that concept,especially when you see these large scale
communities all on a mapthat comes to you in a marketing package.
And you see these numbers of two thousand,and four thousand,
and five thousand, and ten thousand homes,you want to be a part of that.
(20:31):
You want to get in on the ground floorand be in that market.
But this way of thinkinghas its own problems.
This mindset creates a visionthat just doesn't exist.
It truly is phantom growth at this point.
It's very important to not get swept away
with what the future may hold,and you want to be a part of that.
(20:53):
You want to calculate toward that number,
but you have to apply timingto these homes.
When at what point are you going to havea minimum viable market?
We think about minimum viable productsall the time.
We talk about it in our companiesand we see, you know, what is the minimum
viable product that I can bring to marketthat early adopters will purchase
(21:16):
and I will make money.
And that's the same mindset that we thinkabout in high growth markets.
With the real estate,we're looking for a minimum viable market.
What are the early adopters who are goingto come and live in that community?
Who is going to come and buy a home therebefore?
There'snothing really in the neighborhood yet?
When do we start
having enough of those people thereto make enough sales to be profitable?
(21:40):
It gets really easy to be enamored by just
how many households are planned foran area, and it's very easy to overlook
that there is a timeframeand a horizon of how those households
have to be built and absorbedand have people actually living in them
who are actually customersfor your business.
You have to understand at what pointyou have a minimum viable market base.
(22:04):
When are the minimum amountpeople going to be
in that neighborhoodto support your store? Yes.
Or maybe 50,000 homescoming at some point in time.
But those are just vacantplots of land right now.
It's really hard to make any moneyfrom a vacant plot of land.
You need customers in a homewho then they're shopping
habits, would support a store there.
(22:26):
Another thing that people don'tthink about is the time of day.
A lot of new communities in high growthmarkets.
People don't necessarilystay there during the day.
The employment comes laterand until that time people are working
in other communities typicallyand they're not staying
in the local communityand spending money during the daytime.
They're going during the workweek
(22:47):
to wherever they're working,whether it be in a downtown metro area
or just another suburban areathat has more established businesses.
And then they are going thereand commuting.
They're spending their money there
and not spending as much moneyin their home community.
And that really changesthat minimum viable market.
And you have to take this extra timeto sort of calculate, well,
(23:07):
if people aren't here
during the daytime, Monday through Friday,how am I going to make it?
What kind of population,
what kind of salescan I derive during the times
that people are actually in the market?
And so that's somethingto think about too,
and that's something that I feelthat a lot of people overlook.
You can feel like you're out of control.
There is so much that's outof your control in a high growth market.
(23:28):
It's a little bit of a dice roll.
You try to pick the best locationat the right time and still,
if you do everything right, the marketcould turn, the homes could not get built.
Other people can comein, take some of your business
because there's so much sort of unknownwhen you start.
You just may make a wrong prediction.
And so what I recommend in highgrowth markets, because there's
(23:49):
a lot of advantages to being in them,I really recommend trying to monitor,
trying to stay on top of those changesand be more proactive versus reactive
and do what you can, plan your businessthe way you can
if you're going to have some downturnor you're not going to have as many people
as you thought
in a certain time, adjust your inventoryand just how much frozen yogurt you have.
(24:10):
So it doesn't spoil in your fridge.
So you have to sort of monitorthose different components
and then you have to understandwhat the catalysts in
the market areand what starts to change that.
And it's all about getting to a minimumviable market
so that you're operating a businessthat's profitable
and that you're also planningas much as you can
for if you are going to lose moneyfor a couple of years until that
(24:31):
market picks up, what you can't sustainwhat's tolerable.
So you have to hit the timing right
And you have to understand, well,maybe I'm going to take a hit
and I want to get into the community firstand so I'm going to get that best corner
and I'm going to go in therefive years early or I'm going to go there
even ten years earlyas we see some of the top retailers do.
But we're going to get those corners.
We're going to get the best locations orwe're going to get into the Publix center
(24:53):
and the whole center.
There'sonly like 20,000 square feet of shops.
And if I don't get my nail salon in therenow, I'm never going to get the space.
I'm never going to get a shot.
But it's understanding that the growthmay not be coming when you think it is
and is to take a step further,to really get immersed in your community
and understand who's in the homeswhen they're coming there,
(25:14):
when they're going to spend moneyin your store or your location,
and how to plan for that,how to make better retail decisions
in your communities.
But understandthere is a gamble with that.
And so try to predict what that minimumviable market is at what time it comes.
I feel that most people I talked toare not looking at that
in between, are not trying to apply a timeframe to it.
(25:36):
I'm just encouraging youto look at additional resources
and if you're open in a high growthmarket, just really to use the resources
that are available to you,
seek out people at your city,at your county that you operate in.
Your economic development councilstalk with them, try to get a handle on
what is happening in your marketbecause it's going to continue to change.
And if you aren't aware ofwhat's happening,
(25:58):
you're not going to be able to reallymaximize your profit from those changes.
Try to not rely on what's projectedin the sometime future
or try to understandthat timeline of absorption of what's
actually being built, what's actuallyhappening in the community.
Growth is not instantand growth cannot be fully relied on
as economic changeshappen in our macro economies.
(26:21):
It may stop development in the area.
So areas that maybe have proposed homesof 50,000 or 20,000 or whatever
the number may be,that may take a longer time to get built.
South HillsboroughCounty was a great example of that.
A lot of that development was occurringat the beginning of the 2000s,
really pushed forward up
(26:42):
through the financial crisisand then a lot of those proposed homes
and proposed communities just stoppedand then they did get built.
But it took many more yearsfor those homes
to actually have people living in themand being meaningful to the retailers
and the restaurants and the other servicesin those communities
where those people were actually thereto spend money in them.
(27:04):
So what are the numberstelling us right now?
What are our current trends?
We look at the numbers.
We are seeing a lot of growth, more growththan we have for the past 50 years.
So that 3 million numberthat we talk about every ten years.
We're trending higher than that.
So right nowwe're talking about full time residents.
We also have a lot of part time,
but we're talking about the growthof the full time population.
(27:27):
So what are our trendstelling us about that?
Well, one thing to think aboutjust holistically,
we have a heck of a lot of people retiringright now.
The baby boomers are in the retirement ageand we've got another decade
of baby boomers retiring.
Florida is a very desirablefrom a retirement standpoint.
And a lot of people chooseto move to Florida for retirement.
So because we have such a large segmentof the population retiring
(27:50):
at the same time, that is going to fuelour population growth.
I feel for about the next ten years.
So if we look at the census numbersand we look at the numbers
that they are projectingfor each year and growth,
which we've already talkedabout, can be understated
because of some of the unique factorsin the Florida market.
If we look at that based on these currenttrends, we would be projected to be about
(28:12):
3.4 million more peopleby the time we get to the next census.
So at 2030 we'd be up to almost 25 million
people, up from the 21.5that was counted in 2020.
And that is a higher growththan we've been experiencing.
We are projected to be at a higher ratethan we have been for the past 50 years.
(28:32):
We've already talked about for the past
fifty yearswe've been at extraordinary numbers
and right now we're trainingto be even higher than that.
And so it's going to be very interestingto see how everything plays out and how
the 2030 census comes to be.
So a lotcan happen, though, in the next six years.
There could be economic disruptionand different events
(28:52):
that cause that number to changeand that trend to change.
But if we keep with the current trendthat we've been experiencing,
we'll be arriving right at about that25 million mark.
That could also be a little lightfrom different factors in Florida.
So I'm very curious about whatthese numbers are going to be
and how they're going to shape up,especially with everything that recently
happened with COVIDand how a lot more people move down here.
(29:15):
Honestly,COVID has been a little bit crazy,
and the movement
and transition that happened during COVID,I think introduces even more volatility
and maybe differentials than we currentlyexperience with these numbers.
And COVID was happening right atthe same time the census was being taken.
So we're accounting
for all the population of whereeveryone is in the entire country.
(29:36):
And during that time,
everyone is moving aroundand a lot of people are moving to Florida.
They may be quite weren't where they arenow at the time that the census was taken.
So again, in 2020, we're taking the censuscovid's happening.
People are choosing a lotof different reasons to move to Florida.
One, a younger generationcan work from home and live here, right?
(29:58):
They have more flexibilitythan they ever have.
They will have to wait until they retire
and they maybe are moving down hereto work from home from Florida.
We saw that happening.
Second a lot of people had alreadyhad a second residence down here.
They were seasonal residents.
They would come down here and livepart time and they're like, you know what?
We want to be in Floridafull time right now.
We want to transition
from a seasonal residentto a full time resident,
(30:20):
and we're just going to move down therepermanently.
And during COVID, a lot of peoplechose to also retire early.
They didn't want to, you know,be exposed in their workplace to COVID.
And they said, hey, you know what?
We're going to take that early retirementand we're going to leave our job.
So we also saw a push of peoplewho retired early and moved down here.
So all these things were happening.
Florida was just desirableto a lot of people during COVID
(30:42):
for their their personal needson top of those things.
And so we had a lot of movementand you can feel it right,
Like you can feel the amount of peoplethat are here.
So there's again, more vacationpeople, more seasonal residents.
But then all these pushes for full timeresident increases as well.
And so I'm really interestedto see the 2030 census
because I expect that those numbersare going to be even higher.
(31:07):
I think we're going to have a little bitmore of a catch up effect that we talked
about between those customer numbersand the growth projections.
And I think we're going to be above25 million.
And it's we have to see if that continues,if the economics and the environment
allows for that growth to sustain through2030.
Growth is part of our landscape.
(31:27):
Growth is constant in Florida.
New communities are popping up every day.
Existing communities are growing
as fast as they canbecause people want to be here.
So take a moment and think about howyou can reach those growing populations.
And maybe thereexisting in your community.
Maybe they're on the outskirtsof your community.
Maybe you're thinking about openinga store in those high growth new areas.
(31:51):
How are you going to reach thesenew residents?
How are you going to analyzewhen they're coming in to the market?
So you can plan your inventory,you can plan your marketing to them.
How are you planning your second store?
Maybe you're currently reachingsome of that community that's a little bit
farther away in an existing location,and maybe you're going to open
a second storein the center of where that new growth is.
(32:14):
Try to understand the timeline of growth,trying to understand
the absorptionof when that growth is actually realized
and not just stated as 2000 homesor 20,000 homes coming to an area.
Really badsales come from vacant plots of land.
And until there's warm bodies in thereand until that community
is economically stable with new homesand new residents in the community,
(32:38):
it makes it really hardto make your sales.
So it's all about understanding growthin a multidimensional way
so that you can make the best of Floridaretail sales.
Remember to download the episode,
share our show on social media,and also leave us a comment.
Tell us what you like about the show.
This is your host, Britta Erikssonand we look forward to seeing you
(33:01):
next month here at Show Me Some Money.
Show Me Some Money, a podcastabout how money is made in Florida.
Retail.
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