The Breakdown
A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks. Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/
Episodes
November 20, 2025 • 9 mins
Bitcoin’s brutal drawdown has traders asking whether the market finally found its bottom, with price testing $90K multiple times, sentiment crushed into extreme fear, ETF flows bleeding out, futures slipping into backwardation, and institutions stepping back; in today’s episode NLW breaks down the case for and against a bottom through technicals, macro shifts, leveraged positioning, while also covering Kraken’s $800M fundraise with...
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November 19, 2025 • 10 mins
A look at why the long-awaited return of ICOs to the US started with a whimper, not a bang. The debut sale on Coinbase’s new platform underperformed expectations, raising questions about demand for new L1s, tokenomics, and whether retail ever really came back this cycle. Plus, microstrategy’s latest massive Bitcoin buy, trouble in its preferred stock, CBOE’s move into regulated perps, and a grim turn for BTC price action.
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November 18, 2025 • 12 mins
The crypto market is facing a renewed period of intense fear as Bitcoin turned red on the year, briefly dropping below $93,000 amid a 10% weekly drawdown and the Fear & Greed Index hitting extreme lows. NLW explores whether this 25% correction marks the start of a traditional bear market or is simply Bitcoin transitioning into a more institutional asset with a new, potentially less cyclical return profile, noting the strange disson...
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November 16, 2025 • 23 mins
Extreme fear grips the market and Bitcoin dips into the mid-$90Ks, but the real story is everything happening underneath the sell-off. This Friday 5 breaks down the heavy wallet distribution, the liquidation wave, and why short-term price pain contrasts so sharply with long-term structural progress — from new SEC/CFTC clarity efforts to bipartisan draft legislation, from Coinbase’s launchpad experiment to JPMorgan’s deposit token p...
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November 14, 2025 • 11 mins
NLW looks at what the end of the 43-day government shutdown means for crypto, from the CFTC finally moving toward a confirmed chair and opening the door to regulated spot markets, to the SEC racing to revive its tokenization and ETF agenda. He breaks down how Congress is picking up the stalled market-structure bill, what renewed Treasury spending means for liquidity, and why macro uncertainty is rising even as Washington gets back ...
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November 13, 2025 • 11 mins
China is accusing the US of hacking a major Bitcoin mining pool in 2020 and stealing 127,000 BTC—now worth more than $13 billion. NLW breaks down the origins of the Labuyan hack, why the coins later appeared in DOJ-linked wallets, the allegations surrounding Chinese billionaire Chen Ji, and what this fight reveals about Bitcoin’s role in rising US–China tensions. Plus, a quick look at Coinbase’s move to revive US token sales.
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November 11, 2025 • 12 mins
After one of Bitcoin’s sharpest sell-offs of the cycle, sentiment across crypto turned fearful as whales dumped billions and ETFs saw record outflows. But a weekend surge of political and fiscal news — from Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to 50-year mortgages and a government-reopening deal — reignited markets and sent Bitcoin rebounding. NLW breaks down what’s driving the volatility, how institutional analysts are recali...
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November 1, 2025 • 19 mins
On this Halloween Friday Five, NLW and Scott Melker break down a wild week in macro and crypto. The Fed’s latest meeting left markets confused about future rate cuts, while Wall Street and legacy payment giants doubled down on digital assets. ICE partners with Polymarket to explore tokenized collateral, Mastercard eyes a $2B crypto acquisition, and even Western Union is launching its own stablecoin. Plus, Solana ETFs crush expectat...
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October 31, 2025 • 10 mins
Markets got the rate cut they expected — but not the clarity they wanted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stunned investors by signaling that December’s cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” while also announcing an end to quantitative tightening. With two dissents on the committee and growing confusion over data gaps from the government shutdown, Powell’s cautious tone left markets guessing. Stocks whipsawed, Bitcoin fell, and question...
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October 30, 2025 • 12 mins
Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. after years in regulatory exile, now armed with a CFTC-compliant license and a $9B valuation. The move signals a new era for prediction markets—blurring the line between crypto, sports betting, and social platforms. Plus: Visa’s stablecoin expansion, Western Union’s on-chain pivot, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink calls Bitcoin an “asset of fear.”
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October 29, 2025 • 10 mins
Standard Chartered’s Jeff Kendrick says if this week goes well, Bitcoin may never drop below $100,000 again. NLW breaks down the key macro catalysts — a dovish Fed, a potential U.S.–China trade thaw, and tech earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon — that could make this the decisive week for markets. Plus, updates on MicroStrategy’s credit downgrade, new Solana and Litecoin ETFs, and Coinbase’s major partnerships ...
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October 28, 2025 • 9 mins
Bitcoin and risk assets jumped as the U.S. and China appeared to reach a framework agreement that takes 100% tariffs and rare earth restrictions off the table. NLW breaks down what the potential trade deal means for markets, why optimism is back, and how JPMorgan’s move to accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as loan collateral signals a major shift in traditional finance’s relationship with crypto. Plus, new controversy over Binance’s lobb...
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October 25, 2025 • 25 mins
NLW and Scott Melker chop up another week, with a big discussion of the controversial CZ pardon.
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October 24, 2025 • 10 mins
A tense closed-door meeting between Senate Democrats and crypto executives erupted into frustration and accusations after the leak of a draft market structure proposal seen as a de facto DeFi ban. NLW breaks down what went wrong in the meeting, why trust between Democrats and the crypto industry is fraying, and how the stalled bill could slip past year-end. Plus, new GOP efforts to modernize financial crime reporting laws, the bank...
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October 23, 2025 • 11 mins
Gold’s record-breaking rally just snapped with its biggest one-day drop in over a decade, and now traders are asking whether the long-anticipated rotation from gold into Bitcoin has begun. In today’s episode, NLW breaks down what caused gold’s blow-off top, why even small capital shifts from the $20 trillion gold market could send Bitcoin soaring, and how new Fed policy, Tether’s explosive growth, and whale flows into ETFs are resh...
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October 22, 2025 • 10 mins
A massive AWS outage took down huge portions of the internet this week, and crypto wasn’t spared — Coinbase’s Base network went offline, MetaMask users saw zero balances, and much of the industry’s infrastructure stumbled. On today’s Breakdown, NLW explores what the event revealed about crypto’s dependence on centralized services, why Bitcoin and Ethereum’s uptime tell a different story, and how it’s fueling renewed debate about de...
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October 21, 2025 • 9 mins
After a brutal flash crash and a week of weak trading, many in the crypto world are asking if the cycle is done. Bitcoin has held above $100K, but altcoins have been crushed, sentiment has cratered, and major voices like Chris Burniske and Ansem are turning bearish. Still, some analysts think we’re just seeing the most hated rally in history. Plus: Stripe’s $5B Tempo blockchain raises big questions about the future of institutional...
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October 18, 2025 • 25 mins
From dustups with Binance to Larry Fink's tokenization call, NLW and Scott Melker break down the stories that shaped the crypto week.
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October 16, 2025 • 12 mins
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the tokenization of all assets has begun—from real estate to ETFs—and calls on Washington to accelerate digital asset regulation. We break down what this means for markets, crypto, and the future of finance, plus the DOJ’s record $14B Bitcoin seizure and Jerome Powell hinting that quantitative tightening may soon end.
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October 14, 2025 • 12 mins
Markets melted down this weekend after Trump’s surprise tariff announcement triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history. Stocks plunged, altcoins went to zero, and suspicions of insider trading swirled — but by Monday, the “bear market” was already over. NLW breaks down what really happened, who might have caused it, and why this flash crash could reshape crypto market structure.
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