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March 7, 2022 19 mins

Mental Models discussed in this podcast:

  • Stress Testing
  • Time Horizon
  • Stoicism

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Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

YouTube Channel: DIY Investing

Show Outline

The full show notes for this episode are available at https://www.diyinvesting.org/Episode130

Key Concepts for Investing during a Crisis

  • Stress Testing - Bankruptcy Risk?
    • Goal: Survive
    • Stress test businesses not stocks
  • Focus on Fundamentals
    • Long-term is where all of the value is at
    • The next 1 or 2 years is only 10-20% of the value most of the time.
  • War somewhere is not inherently a crisis for your portfolio
    • Are your specific businesses being affected?
    • Land war in your country?
    • Destruction of infrastructure owned by your companies?
    • Sanctions against your companies?
    • There has been almost constant war for the entirety of the last 100 years somewhere in the world
  • Doomsday Scenarios
    • It is usually worth betting on optimistic outcomes
    • If you're wrong, you likely won't be around to deal with it. (Nuclear war)

Summary:

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has created a situation where three crisis grip the world: War, Inflation, and COVID-19. How should investors think and act during such a crisis? 

Stress test your portfolio. Focus on the Fundamentals. Does the war affect you directly? Avoid doomsday thinking.

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