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July 10, 2022 28 mins

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Mental Models discussed in this podcast:

  • Second-Order Effects
  • Mean Reversion
  • Factor Investing

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Twitter Handle: @TreyHenninger

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Show Outline

  • Selling Series
    • A lot of time is spent on buying stocks. Yet, almost just as important, if not more is knowing when to sell stocks. 
    • I find this area relatively underexplored, so I want to begin a long-term series on selling stocks from the framework of a value investor. 
    • Previously talked about selling in a single episode on Ep. 106
  • Today's focus: Strategy matters
    • There is no one-size fits all approach
    • How you buy stocks will influence how you sell them
    • Your portfolio allocation strategy will matter
    • THe number of stocks you review in a year will matter
    • Whether you plan to own a cash position or not will matter.
  • Excluded from this series:
    • Won't be discussing momentum investing
    • Won't be discussing trading or technical analysis investing (except as a marginal part of value investing when relevant)
    • Entire focus assumes that you are a value investor of some sort (whether deep value, compounder, graham value, quality, etc…)
  • Deep Value:
    • Buy at 2/3rds of value and sell at "full price"
  • Compounders:
    • You want to hold for a long-time. 
    • Sell when compounding ends, plateaus or you were wrong
  • Net-Nets
    • Hold a year then reassess
  • Waterfall Stocks: 
    • Hold so long as dividend yield is sufficient to provide target return
  • Dividend Growth Investing:
    • Buy companies that pay dividends and grow them and sell them when they cut or eliminate their dividends
  • Buy and Hold
    • "Never sell"
    • Works for a subse
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